Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Baseball America's Top 10 Dodgers' prospects leaked

Well, Friday was to be the day Baseball America released its Top 10 Dodgers' prospects. But the Dodgers' official Twitter account beat 'em to it.
"@Dodgers: '@BaseballAmerica Top #Dodgers prospects: 1-Lee 2-Webster 3-Eovaldi 4-Silverio 5-Reed 6-Gould 7-Withrow 8-Lindblom 9-Pederson 10-Federowicz"
Here's the cleaned-up version of the list:

1. Zach Lee
2. Allen Webster
3. Nathan Eovaldi
4. Alfredo Silverio
5. Chris Reed
6. Garrett Gould
7. Chris Withrow
8. Josh Lindblom
9. Joc Pederson
10. Tim FederowiczLink

And here's a side-by-side comparison to my rankings from nine days ago:

Rank Baseball America FKB (mine)
1 Lee Lee
2 Webster Eovaldi
3 Eovaldi Webster
4 Silverio Gould
5 Reed Sanchez
6 Gould Pederson
7 Withrow Songco
8 Lindblom Tolleson
9 Pederson Smith
10 Federowicz Lemmerman

As you can see, Baseball America and myself differ on a lot of the Top 10. In fact, the only one we had the same is Lee (with Eovaldi and Webster flip-flopped).

Analysis

We all know Baseball America's love for former high draft picks, which is why Reed, Withrow and Lindblom are ranked as high as they are. I'm not a believer in Reed as a starter (though I hope he proves me wrong), Withrow seems destined for the bullpen unless he can start throwing strikes consistently and Lindblom is a nice bullpen arm, but doesn't belong in the Top 10.

I'm higher on guys like Angel Sanchez, Angelo Songco, Blake Smith and Jake Lemmerman than BA, which is totally unsurprising to me.

And I don't think we could differ more on Federowicz. I just don't see him being able to hit enough to justify a Top 10 ranking in the system.

The most surprising inclusion is Silverio at No. 4. He had a great season for the Lookouts, but did he do enough to jump into the system's Top 5? I don't think so. I had him just outside the Top 10 (No. 11) and want to see if his 2011 was a sign of things to come or a fluke.

Looking forward to the Top 30 in the 2012 Prospect Handbook.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Report: Dodgers close to signing Adam Kennedy

Well, that didn't take long.

A whole 37 minutes after my previous post, Tony Jackson of ESPN L.A. dropped this:
"Dodgers close to signing Adam Kennedy to be their utility IF. "
Terms of the deal aren't immediately available.

Like I said 40 minutes ago, anything more than a minor-league deal is too much.

Jackson writes Kennedy would be the team's super utility player, which leads me to believe this is some sort of guaranteed contract.

Not only that, but it pretty much assures Ivan De Jesus will start the season in Triple-A. Justin Sellers could still be in the mix on the big league club.

Kennedy had a nice season for the Athletics in 2009, but he's a subpar player about to be acquired by a subpar general manager.

Happy birthday, Mr. Scully

The voice and face of the Los Angeles Dodgers turned 84 years young today.

Vin Scully, the greatest sports broadcaster of all-time, will enter his 63rd season calling Dodger baseball.

It's truly a blessing when the best in the business can do his job at an elite level for that long. It's unheard of. Dodger fans everywhere should be fortunate to hear his calling of a game; it's unrivaled.

So today, think of Vin and all your favorite memories of him. He's simply the best and he won't do this job forever, unfortunately.

Happy birthday, Vin. "Let's get back to this one."

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It's also Assistant General Manager Logan White's birthday.

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MLB Trade Rumors is reporting (yes, actually reporting) the Dodgers are talking to Adam Kennedy.

Kennedy -- he of the .241/.301/.342/.643 combined line the last two seasons. I'd say he makes zero sense for the Dodgers -- which is accurate -- but this is Ned Colletti we're talking about. He can't help but be interested in crappy utility players (see: Jerry Hairston, Aaron Miles, Jack Wilson, et al).

Anything more than a minor league contract is too much for this over-the-hill player.

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Minor League Ball should be releasing its Dodger Top 20 prospect list later this week.

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Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness looks at Colletti's comments on MLB Radio, where he admitted James Loney will be the Dodgers' first baseman in 2012.

I'm not opposed to the move. If he hits anything close to his late-season form, then great. If not, then this would certainly be the last season Loney would don a Dodger uniform.

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Jonathan Broxton signed with the Kansas City Royals today. It's a 1-year, $4 million deal. It can go to $5 million with incentives.

It could be a really good deal for the Royals. If he's back to his pre-June 27, 2010 form, they could have the best 1-2 back-end combo in baseball.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Dodgers to sign Wil Ledezma, plus other Dodger links

The Dodgers are expected to sign LHP Wil Ledezma to a minor-league contract today, according to El Universal, a Venezuelan outlet. It was later confirmed by Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, then not confirmed, but almost confirmed.

Ledezma, 30, appeared in five games for Toronto last season, allowing 10 runs (all earned) in six unimpressive innings. He walked seven and struck out six.

Ledezma's best season came in 2006 for the Detroit Tigers, going 3-3 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 5.8 K/9. His ERA was nice, but his peripherals were not.

In fact, his entire career has been poor. But, he could be a LOOGY for the Dodgers, allowing Scott Elbert to pitch more than against left-handers. With Hong-Chih Kuo unlikely to return, Elbert is the only lefty in the Dodger bullpen right now. However, Ledezma's career .303 batting average against left-handed hitters isn't exactly inspiring.

This is really a nothing signing for the Dodgers and I'd be surprised if he makes it to Los Angeles at all this season.

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Chad Moriyama of Chad Moriyama (it's weird every time I write that), Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness and Jared Massey of L.A. Dodger Report all have their summaries and thoughts on the new collective bargaining agreement agreed to by the union and the owners. All are good, informative reads.

Petriello also has a review of Dodgers' management this year.

True Blue L.A. is holding voting for its Top 20 Dodger prospects. The fan voting is at No. 7 right now. The Top six are as follows:
  1. Zach Lee
  2. Allen Webster
  3. Nathan Eovaldi
  4. Garrett Gould
  5. Chris Reed
  6. Chris Withrow

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Matt Kemp finishes second behind Ryan Braun in NL MVP voting

Ryan Braun doubled up Matt Kemp in today's National League MVP voting. The Brewers' outfielder snagged 20 of 32 first-place votes. Kemp received 10 first-place votes.

Braun had a tremendous season, leading the NL in OPS (.997) and slugging percentage (.597). He also joined the 30-30 club for the first time in his young career (33 HRs, 33 SBs).

The award could have gone to either outfielder, but Braun presumably had the edge because the Brewers were a playoff team and made it to the National League Championship Series. The Dodgers finished in third place and clearly out of playoff contention.

Kemp led the NL in home runs (39), RBI (126), OPS+ (171), total bases (353) and fWAR (8.7). He also led the Majors in bWAR (10.0) and was the first player to reach double-digits in that category since Barry Bonds in 2004.

Kemp got 10 first-place votes, 16 second-place votes and 6 third-place votes. Braun got 20 first-place votes and 12 second-place votes. That was the difference.

Congratulations to Braun. He had a great season.

The silver lining: It's nice knowing Kemp is locked-up for the next eight years. That's the best news of the off-season.

And Kemp will get an MVP before his career is done. Here's hoping the Dodgers get him some protection.

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Clayton Kershaw finished in 12th place, grabbing 11 total votes.
  • Fifth place: 1
  • Sixth place: 1
  • Eighth place: 2
  • Ninth place: 5
  • 10th place: 2
That was good enough for 29 total points.

Monday, November 21, 2011

2012 Los Angeles Dodgers Top 50 prospects

This my Los Angeles Dodgers' Top 50 prospects list. In previous years, I've done Top 30s (Top 15s at midseason). This year, I felt the desire to do a Top 50.

Baseball America will release its Dodger top 10 list on Dec. 2. Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and Minor League Ball have yet to release their Dodger top prospect lists.

The Dodgers graduated a lot of quality players from the 2011 list: Jerry Sands, Dee Gordon, Kenley Jansen, Scott Elbert and Javy Guerra (who didn't make my Top 30). When losing that many good players, impact and depth are bound to suffer. The plus side is, the Major League team should thrive (in theory).

Eligibility
All players who have not reached 50 innings pitched, 130 at-bats in the Major Leagues and have less than 45 days of pre-Sept. 1 service time are eligible for this list. Ages are as of April 1, 2012.

Impact potential: C+
- The system is stacked with quality right-handed starters and outfielders. There isn't that one big-time prospect who really draws the attention of people around the game. Still, there could be a few quality Major League starters in the bunch.
Depth: C-
- The system is deep in RHPs and OFs. The system lacks quality infielders, though, the catching depth is a little better after some players emerged and some were acquired via trade and the draft.

Top 50 Dodgers' Prospects for 2012

1. Zach Lee, RHP (6'4, 190, 20 years old)
- Lee was the Dodgers' 2010 first-round pick and signed for a club-record $5.25 million. Many thought he was destined for LSU, but the Dodgers signed him on the last day. Unlike last season, the Dodgers have an unquestioned No. 1 prospect, and it's Lee. His legitimate four-pitch repertoire and mound presence give him the edge over the other players vying for the No. 1 spot. His fastball can touch 96 MPH and sits in the low 90s. His slider is along the lines of Chad Billingsley's cutter and has the makings of a plus pitch. His changeup is raw or advanced, depending who you believe. It has the potential to be a plus pitch. He also has a curveball, which could be a decent pitch in the future. In his first season, he performed well for the Great Lakes Loons. Going forward, he'll need to miss some more bats. The development of his slider/cutter and changeup are vital for his success.
2011 ranking: 4
2012 location: High-A Rancho Cucamonga/Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: 2013

2. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP (6'3, 195, 22 years old)
- Eovaldi was an afterthought to most before 2011. However, his strong showing at Double-A not only put his name back on the prospect radar, but also made him a legitimate prospect. Eovaldi uses a low-to-mid-90s fastball with lots of movement. His slider is below average and his changeup is virtually non-existent. Because of that, there are questions where he'll end up. Some think he can develop those off-speed pitches and be a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter. Others think if he works on his slider and ditches the changeup, he could be a nasty reliever -- possibly even a closer. His debut with the Dodgers last season was unexpected and he's slotted as the team's No. 4 starter at this moment (pending Hiroki Kuroda's re-signing or another free agent signee).
2011 ranking: 28
2012 location: Majors/Triple-A Albuquerque
ETA: Now
3. Allen Webster, RHP (6'3, 185, 22 years old)
- Webster started the 2011 season on fire, dominating the California League. He was so good he was called up to Double-A. In Chattanooga, he continued to pitch well until August. He had a string of three poor starts which really inflated his numbers. However, Webster still possesses a No. 2 starter ceiling. His fastball sits in the low-90s with movement. His curveball is his best secondary offering and has a chance to be a plus pitch. His changeup is much more advanced than Eovaldi's, which gives him a better chance of sticking in the rotation. At 21, he was pitching against competition mostly older than him. He could either start in Double-A if the Dodgers are afraid of sending him to Triple-A.
2011 ranking: 6
2012 location: Double-A/Triple-A Albuquerque
ETA: mid-2012

4. Garrett Gould, RHP (6'4, 190, 20 years old)
- Gould has always been one of my favorite prospects and he's back on track after a somewhat down 2010. He teamed with Lee and another Loon (soon to come) to form one of the best 1-2-3 punches in the Midwest League. His fastball sat in the high-80s-to-low-90s. If he wants to be a potential top-of-the-rotation guy, his fastball velocity needs to be in the low-90s. His off-speed offerings are solid, including the best curveball in the system. It sits in the mid-70s and has good bite. His changeup is an average pitch right now. He might need to develop a fourth pitch down the road. He'll be challenged in the hitter-friendly California League with a possible midseason call-up to Double-A.
2011 ranking: 13
2012 location: High-A Rancho Cucamonga/Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: late-2013
5. Angel Sanchez, RHP (6'3, 185, 21 years old)
- Sanchez seemingly came out of nowhere in 2011. The 21-year-old signed out of the Dominican Republic last year and had a stellar professional debut. He teamed with Lee and Gould to form a potent 1-2-3 punch in the Midwest League. His fastball has been clocked as high as 97 MPH and works in the low-90s. He has a solid curveball and changeup. With his stuff, he should be getting more strikeouts. He also needs to work on his control a bit. But it was his professional debut, so I think we can cut him a little slack.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: High-A Rancho Cucamonga/Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: mid-2013
6. Joc Pederson, CF/LF, (6'1, 185, 20 years old)
- The first non-RHP pitcher on this list, Pederson was an 11th-round steal for the Dodgers in the 2010 draft. He started last season with the Loons, and he struggled mightily (.160/.288/.160). He was sent to Ogden where he flourished. He had a .997 OPS and a surprising 24 stolen bases. His tools grade out as average across the board. He could improve in a few areas as he matures as a player. He's going to stick in center field right now, where he has average defensive tools. He could end up in either corner if he has to move. That would decrease his overall value a bit, but not too much.
2011 ranking: 16
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes/High-A Rancho Cucamonga
ETA: 2014

7. Angelo Songco, 1B/LF (6'0, 195, 23 years old)
- One of my personal favorites, Songco had a breakout season in the California League. He led the league in total bases (310), doubles (48), was second in home runs (29) and RBI (114) and was third in runs scored (110). The league is hitter-friendly, but those are still solid numbers. Songco also improved against left-handed pitching in 2011, something he needed to improve upon from last year. Originally an outfielder, the Quakes moved him to first base in the middle of last season. He doesn't have much defensive value but also shouldn't be a liability in the field -- at 1B or OF.
2011 ranking: 22
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga/Triple-A Albuquerque
ETA: late-2013
8. Shawn Tolleson, RHP (6'2, 215, 24 years old)
- Tolleson was regarded as a 30th-round steal in the 2010 draft, and he proved it in 2011. He had major success across three levels of the minor leagues. His performance in the Midwest League was downright silly: 19.8 K/9, 4.8 H/9, 8.25 K/BB ratio. He was promoted to Rancho and only had a 15.8 K/9 rate. He pitched the majority of the season for the Lookouts, where he had a 1.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 and 12 saves. He uses his low-to-mid 90s fastball and a wipeout slider to accumulate all those strikeouts. He should get a taste of the majors in 2012, but I don't think they'll send him to Albuquerque.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga/Majors
ETA: early-2012

9. Blake Smith, RF (6'2, 225, 24 years old)
- Another one of my favorites, Smith has plus raw power and plus defensive ability in right field. He had a great season in 2011, despite missing a good portion of it because of a sports hernia. His .898 OPS in the Cal League is impressive. He reduced his strikeout rate slightly (from 27.4 percent to 26.8 percent) and increased his Isolated Power (ISO) from .207 in 2010 to .275 in 2011. His arm is second to no outfielder in the system as he recorded 13 outfield assists for the Quakes. That is not surprising, seeing as some teams saw him as a pitcher in the 2009 draft. It'll be interesting to see how he handles advanced pitching, but with his raw power and plus defense, he could be an everyday big leaguer down the road.
2011 ranking: 15
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga/Triple-A Albuquerque
ETA: late-2013

10. Jake Lemmerman, SS/2B (6'1, 192, 22 years old)

- Lemmerman is the Dodgers' best middle infield prospect. The fifth-round pick out of Duke in 2010 had a nice season for the Quakes and Lookouts. Unsurprisingly, he struggled more at Double-A than he did at High-A. However, all the tools are there for him to be a solid Major League player. He was touted for his glove coming out of the draft, but he's made a lot of errors. While errors aren't a great indicator of defensive ability, he does need to cut down on those if he wishes to stick at shortstop. Even if he does, he still might be a better fit at second base. He isn't going to hit for a lot of power, but he could end up being an ideal No. 2 hitter.
2011 ranking: 18
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga/Triple-A AlbuquerqueETA: late-2013

11. Alfredo Silverio, LF/RF (6'0, 205, 24 years old)

- Silverio had a breakout season in 2011, leading the Southern League in total bases (289) and triples (18) while finishing second in double (42) and hits (163). He played a lot of center field for the Lookouts but he's destined for a corner -- left field, as his arm isn't strong enough for right field. It took a long time, but he finally broke out. Still, his plate discipline could use some work. If he improves that, he could be an everyday outfielder. He could be one of the first guys called up if the Dodgers need an outfielder.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Triple-A Albuquerque
ETA: late-2012

12. Chris Withrow, RHP (6'3, 195, 23 years old)
- Withrow could have the most potential of any player in the Dodgers' system, but his inability to throw strikes consistently has hampered his development. The 2007 first-round pick had a much better season in the Southern League after repeating it. Still, his BB/9 was up from 2010 (5.2 compared to 4.8) and his K/BB ratio dipped by .01 (1.74 to 1.73). His K/9 did rise (8.3 to 9.1), which is encouraging. His fastball sits in the low-90s and can reach the mid-to-upper-90s. His curveball is one of the system's best. After that, his other pitches aren't much to speak of. He could find himself in the bullpen if he doesn't put it all together this season.
2011 ranking: 10
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga/Triple-A Albuquerque
ETA: late-2012

13. Gorman Erickson, C (6'4, 220, 24 years old)
- A 15th-round pick in 2006, Erickson finally broke out in 2011. His career hadn't been much to this point, but his time with the Quakes really put him on the map. He had a triple slash of .293/.379/.486 in Rancho and earned a promotion to Double-A. He started off hitting for some pop there before sliding a bit late in the season. Still, his power potential and plate discipline from the catching position are cause for optimism. He is unprotected for December's Rule 5 Draft and I wouldn't be shocked if a team took a chance on him. But he's the best catching prospect the Dodgers have and has some potential.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes/High-A Rancho Cucamonga
ETA: 2014

14. Josh Lindblom, RHP (6'5, 240, 24 years old)
- After a couple failed years in the rotation, the Dodgers moved Lindblom to the bullpen. He had the most success of his career in this role. He had a good showing at Chattanooga (2.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 11.5 K/9) and in Los Angeles (2.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 8.5 K/9). He has a heavy, sinking low-90s fastball and a decent slider. He should be a fixture in a Major League bullpen for years to come. He has the ability to close, but with guys like Javy Guerra, Kenley Jansen and Eovaldi ahead of him, he'll be relegated to middle relief.
2011 ranking: 24
2012 location: Majors
ETA: Now

15. Scott Van Slyke, LF/RF/1B (6'5, 195, 25 years old)
- Tall and slender like his father, Andy, Scott had an MVP-type season for the Lookouts. His 45 doubles and .348 batting average led the league (minimum 300 at-bats) while placing second in on-base percentage (.427), slugging percentage (.595), OPS (1.022), total bases (272) and third in RBI (92). The biggest knock on him is his age and the fact he repeated the league. Still, he absolutely crushed left-handed pitching (1.143 OPS) and can play either corner outfield spot or first base. He could make his Major League debut later this year.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Triple-A Albuquerque/Majors
ETA: mid-2012
16. James Baldwin, CF (6'3, 190, 20 years old)
- Baldwin might be the position player with the most talent and potential in the system. His power/speed combination reminds many of Matt Kemp, including Logan White. He's yet to play above rookie ball ball, but that's common for a 20-year-old. He posted an .828 OPS with the Ogden Raptors. He hit 10 home runs in 196 at-bats, which was up from two home runs in 179 at-bats in his debut season. He also stole 22 bases in 27 attempts. There are two things he really needs to work on: his plate discipline (27:134 BB:K ratio in his career) and his performance against left-handed pitching (.183/.300/.367 in 2011). His defense in center field is good and he should have no problem staying there as he climbs the ladder. He should move up this list next season, as long as he progresses and doesn't regress.2011 ranking: 23
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes
ETA: 2015


17. Steve Ames, RHP (6'1, 205, 24 years old)
- Ames is another good relief prospect the Dodgers have in the minors. His 2011 season, while not Tolleson good, was pretty damn impressive. He pitched for the Quakes and Lookouts, posting a combined 2.06 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, 12.9 K/9 and a 5.31 K/BB ratio. He, like Tolleson, uses a two-pitch arsenal to get guys out. His fastball can reach the mid-90s and his breaking ball is his out pitch. Also like Tolleson, Ames could find himself in Los Angeles before the end of the season.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga/Triple-A AlbuquerqueETA: mid-2012

18. Leon Landry, CF (5'11, 185, 22 years old)
- I had really high hopes for Landry coming into the season, ranking him No. 9 in the organization. However, his 2011 season was a disappointment. He still has plenty of talent to turn things around, though. Despite his poor .250/.307/.360 slash line, he did steal 28 bases (albeit in 40 attempts) and struck out in just 12.1 percent of his at-bats. He also can pick it in center field. He's the best defensive outfielder in the system. I still see him as a poor man's Carl Crawford, but he'll have to make some strides this season. He might start at Great Lakes again.
2011 ranking: 9
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes/High-A Rancho Cucamonga
ETA: late-2013

19. Chris Reed, LHP (6'4, 195, 21 years old)
- Reed was the team's first-round pick in 2011 and most fans were baffled by the move. The Dodgers wasted no time testing him, as he made his debut with the Quakes in High-A. He pitched in only three regular season games. He had a solid performance in the California League playoffs: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 7 K. He profiles similarly to Aaron Miller -- both left-handed, both college pitchers, both tried as starters, both might be better as relievers. Reed has a low-90s fastball, a low-80s slider and a changeup. The Dodgers are going to try him as a starter, but I'm betting he ends up as a reliever. He could move quickly through the system.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: High-A Rancho Cucamonga/Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: 2014

20. O'Koyea Dickson, 1B (5'11, 215, 22 years old)
- Dickson was a 12th-round pick in the 2011 draft and wasn't given a great chance to succeed. However, he went to Ogden and showed he could hit a little, posting a slash line of .333/.402/.603. He hit a team-high-tying 13 home runs. His performance was surprising and it'll be interesting to see how he does as he moves up the ladder. This ranking might be a little aggressive, but I'm willing to stand behind it.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes
ETA: 2015

21. Alex Castellanos, OF/IF (5'11, 180, 25 years old)- Castellanos was acquired for Rafael Furcal before the trade deadline and continued his torrid season. His performance gives hope that he'll be more than roster fodder. But right now, he's a man without a position. He played outfield exclusively last season, but the Dodgers are giving him some reps at first base. He's also played second- and third base in the minors. If he could nail down either second- or third base, that'd give him the fastest path to the Majors. He could see some time with the Dodgers this season.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Triple-A Albuquerque/Majors
ETA: mid-2012

22. Jonathan Garcia, RF (5'11, 175, 20 years old)
- Garcia started the season on fire, belting seven home runs and accumulating a .945 OPS in April. The only other month he had of an OPS better than .800 was June (.846). The other months did not treat him kindly. Still, as a 19-year-old in the Midwest League, Garcia showed signs of ability. Despite his small frame, he as some raw power. He just needs to do a better job of making contact. His defense is solid and his arm is good enough to stick in right field.
2011 ranking: 12
2012 location: High-A Rancho Cucamonga
ETA: late-2014
23. Pratt Maynard, C (6'0, 190, 21 years old)
- Maynard was the team's third-round pick in 2011. I thought he was the best choice, in terms of value, in the Dodgers' draft. He is a solid defensive catcher with some hitting ability. He probably won't hit for a lot of power, but he could hit well enough for a catcher. I expect him to be the team's long-term catcher if Erickson doesn't quite work out.
2010 ranking: Not ranked
2011 location: Pioneer Rookie League/Low-A Great LakesETA: mid-2014

24. Aaron Miller, LHP
(6'3, 200, 24 years old)
- The 2009 first-round pick has dealt with injuries in his brief career, and 2011 was no exception. He had a decent ERA with the Quakes, but his peripherals told a different story: 1.62 WHIP, 9.8 H/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.67 K/BB. Miller still has a low-90s fastball and, at times, a sharp slider. He also has a changeup, but it's easily his No. 3 pitch. He seems destined for the bullpen. He could be a power lefty out of the 'pen. He needs to regain his control if he wants to be a factor from here on out.
2011 ranking: 8
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: 2013

25. Scott Schebler, CF (6'1, 208, 21 years old)
- Schebler was one of the Raptors' best hitters this season and has the ability to play center field. His power/speed combination is intriguing, even though he stole only one base in 2011. There is one glaring negative in Schebler's game -- he struck out 97 times in 295 plate appearances (30.8 percent). He's going to have to improve upon that as he moves up the ladder.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes
ETA: 2014
26. Logan Bawcom, RHP (6'2, 200, 23 years old)
- Bawcom is a lot like Tolleson and Ames and could move up the ladder just as quickly. He struggled just a tad when he was promoted to Rancho, but his strikeout rate didn't suffer. He had an 11.1 K/9 with the Loons and 11.6 with the Quakes in his first full professional season. The 2010 17th-rounder has a low-90s fastball, a slider and a changeup. He should get a full season at Double-A.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location:
Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: mid-2013

27. Justin Boudreaux, SS (6'1, 190, 22 years old)

- Boudreaux was a 14th-round steal for the Dodgers in the 2011 draft. His debut was solid, but there's definitely room for improvement. He did go an impressive 17-for-17 in stolen base attempts and has surprisingly good plate discipline. If he makes it and stays with the Dodgers, his future could be at second base. But he's good enough to stick at shortstop.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes
ETA: late-2014

28. Josh Wall, RHP (6'6, 218, 25 years old)- Wall, the Dodgers' second-round pick in 2005, was originally slated to be a front-of-the-rotation starter. However, after five years of starting, the Dodgers finally moved him to the bullpen. In that role, he had a lot more success. His fastball can get into the mid-90s as a reliever and a decent curveball and changeup. With his stuff, he should probably be missing more bats. He did have the second-best K/9 of his career in 2011 (7.5). He could be a late-bloomer/sleeper prospect.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga/Triple-A AlbuquerqueETA: 2013

29. Scott McGough, RHP (6'0, 170, 22 years old)
- The team's fifth round pick in the 2011 draft, McGough enjoyed success in the Midwest League -- and that was after his promotion from Ogden, where he struggled. His 11.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 are good-looking peripherals and he could be the next in the line of strong right-handed Dodger relief prospects.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes/High-A Rancho Cucamonga
ETA: 2014

30. Tim Federowicz, C (5'11, 200, 24 years old)
- Federowicz was acquired as the main piece in the deal that sent Trayvon Robinson to the Red Sox (then subsequently the Mariners). He's been touted for his glove and could have a long and established Major League career. But he'll need to prove he can hit enough to be an everyday player. He was 2-for-13 in his brief debut. He could see significant time with the Dodgers this season, provided the A.J. Ellis/Matt Treanor duo doesn't work out.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Triple-A Albuquerque/Majors
ETA: Now

31. Alex Santana, 3B (6'4, 200, 18 years old)
- Santana was the Dodgers' second-round pick in the 2011 draft and while he was overdrafted, scouts still like his potential and talent. As expected, he struggled in his debut as a 17-year-old. He hit only .238/.298/.339 for the Arizona League Dodgers. There's no need to rush him or expect him to move quickly throughout the system. He's already big for his age and could conceivably grow out of the position. But for now, he's the Dodgers' future at the hot corner.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Arizona Rookie League/Pioneer Rookie League
ETA: 2016


32.
Ralston Cash, RHP (6'1, 197, 20 years old)
- Cash was the Dodgers' second-round pick in 2010 and despite a less-than-stellar debut, had some buzz about him going into the season. However, a hip injury kept him out for the entire 2011 season. He still profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter with his three-pitch arsenal (low-90s fastball, slider and changeup).
2011 ranking: 20
2012 location: Arizona Rookie League/Pioneer Rookie League
ETA: late-2014


33.
Derek Cone, RHP (6'5, 210, 21 years old)
- Cone played in three different leagues in 2011 and didn't have much success at any level. He did have a strong 9.6 K/9 rate, but everything else was poor. Still, Cone has a lot of potential as a 31st-round steal in last year's draft.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Pioneer Rookie League/Low-A Great Lakes
ETA: 2015


34.
Juan Rodriguez, RHP (6'5, 195, 23 years old)
- Rodriguez was another piece acquired in the Robinson deal and has electric stuff. Much like Martin, though, he struggles to throw strikes (though, not on that level). His fastball has been clocked as high as 100 MPH and has a slider to go along with it. If he could learn to throw strikes consistently, he'd be a nice option out of the bullpen.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes/High-A Rancho Cucamonga
ETA: late-2013


35. Javier Solano, RHP (6'0, 177, 22 years old)
- Solano is an interesting character. He finished 2010 with the Lookouts but still found himself back at Rancho Cucamonga for the start of the 2011 season. He was later promoted to Chattanooga and pitched a tad better there than he did with the Quakes. He could be a middle relief option in a few years, but he needs to not give up as many hits as he has. His control is decent and he can get a strikeout when he needs to.
2011 ranking: 25
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: late-2014

36. Noel Cuevas, CF (6'2, 187, 20 years old)
- Cuevas was a nice snag in the 21st round of the 2010 draft. He actually began 2011 with the Quakes, as the club needed an extra outfielder. He then was sent to Ogden where he performed well, especially for a 19-year-old. He has a decent power/speed combination and plays a good enough center field to stick there defensively for a little while. He could eventually end up in left field.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes/High-A Rancho Cucamonga
ETA: 2015
37. Ethan Martin, RHP (6'2, 195, 22 years old)
- Martin is turning out to be one of the biggest busts in recent Dodger draft history. Martin just simply cannot throw strikes. His career 6.1 BB/9 rate is proof of that. But when he does, he gets strikeouts (9.6 K/9). When he was curiously promoted to Double-A, he worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen and enjoyed more overall success, but still struggled. If the Dodgers were ever going to convert him to third base, now would be the time.
2011 ranking: 14
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: 2014
38. Jesus Valdez, SS/3B (6'3, 180, 20 years old)
- Another 2011 draftee, Valdez enjoyed moderate success in his first 23 professional games. He showed the willingness to take a walk and a little pop. He played nearly all his games at first base, but the Dodgers would be wise to try him at third base before they settle on first base.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Pioneer Rookie League
ETA: 2015
39. Cole St. Clair, LHP (6'5, 225, 25 years old)
- St. Clair is one of the Dodgers who is closest to the Majors and could very well see time there this season -- but maybe not with the Dodgers. He was left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft and could be snagged by another team. His stuff isn't great, but it's good enough to post a career line of 3.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.5 K/9.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga/Triple-A Albuquerque
ETA: late-2012


40. Ivan DeJesus, 2B (5'11, 200, 24 years old)
- DeJesus began last season with the Dodgers but failed to make an impression on the team club. He spent most of the season in Triple-A and didn't earn a call-up in September. He apparently doesn't figure into the Dodgers' future plans. Still, he could be a serviceable utility man in the Majors at some point -- if he can learn to hit big league pitching.
2011 ranking: 21
2012 location: Triple-A Albuquerque/Majors
ETA: Now
41. Christopher O'Brien, C (6'0, 219, 22 years old)
- O'Brien definitely has enough bat to stick behind the dish, posting a .292/.358/.494 line in both Rookie Ball leagues. There are questions whether the 18th-round pick can stick behind the dish defensively. He could be destined for first base before too long, but for now, he'll stay behind the plate where the Dodgers could use the depth.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Pioneer Rookie League/Low-A Great Lakes
ETA: 2015


42. Brandon Martinez, RHP (6'4, 150, 21 years old)
- Martinez has been in the organization since 2009 and has improved every year. He's had a rough go of it so far, but he also has some ability. His fastball sits in the low-90s, his breaking ball is average and his changeup is a work in progress. If he could harness the other two pitches, he could raise his stock. He should pitch above Rookie Ball for the first time in his career.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes
ETA: 2015
43. Kyle Russell, RF (6'5, 195, 25 years old)
- Russell has a ton of power potential and good defensive ability, but he can't shake the strikeout bug. He struck out in 35.6 percent of his at-bats in 2011 and while that was down from 2010, it's still not good enough to be a Major League regular. He got a late-season promotion to Triple-A and should begin 2012 there.
2011 ranking: 27
2012 location: Triple-A Albuquerque
ETA: late-2012
44. Yimi Garcia, RHP (6'1, 175, 21 years old)
- Garcia was signed out of the Dominican Republic at age 18 and enjoyed success in his profession debut. His second year, however, was not successful. He posted an ugly 7.04 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 2010 before rebounding this season with Ogden. He struck out 12.2 batters per nine innings and could skyrocket up this list with a successful 2012 against advanced competition.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes
ETA: 2015
45. Matt Magill, RHP (6'3, 190, 22 years old)
- The knock on Magill is his stuff wasn't going to play well as he moved up the later. While he didn't have a horrific season for the Quakes, he didn't have as much success as he did in 2010. His H/9 skyrocketed from 6.2 in 2010 to 10.1 in 2011. That was the main reason his numbers were inflated. His average fastball needs to be located with pinpoint precision to be successful. His off-speed stuff also needs to be located well for him to succeed.
2011 ranking: 11
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: late-2013


46.
Tony Delmonico, 3B (6'0, 194, 24 years old)
- Delmonico was drafted as a second baseman, moved to catcher before finally settling in at third base. His defense there is solid, but he might not have enough bat to be a regular. He's a heady player and could very well reach the Majors as a utility player. He was a favorite of mine as a catching prospect, but he couldn't quite grasp the position.
2011 ranking: 30
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: mid-2014


47. Juan Noriega, RHP (5'7, 145, 21 years old)
- The shortest player in my Top 50, Noriega made his professional debut this year after being signed out of the Mexican League. In 17 Rookie Ball innings, he struck out 27 batters without giving up a run. Not bad for a guy who wasn't even in the organization before this season.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Pioneer Rookie League/Low-A Great Lakes
ETA: 2015


48.
Red Patterson, RHP (6'3, 210, 24 years old)
- Patterson had a nice season in two levels of the minors, posting a 3.69 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 rate. He's a classic junkballer with a fringe-average fastball and decent off-speed offerings. He's likely organizational depth at this point, but right now, he's decent organizational depth.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: High-A Rancho Cucamonga/Double-A Chattanooga
ETA: mid-2014


49. Stephen Fife, RHP (6'3, 210, 25 years old)
- Fife was the final piece of the Robinson deal and is the least likely to have a successful Major League career. He has average stuff and doesn't strike out enough hitters to have long-term success. He's in the mold of Magill, Patterson and Jon Michael Redding -- just a little more advanced.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Double-A Chattanooga/Triple-A Albuquerque
ETA: late-2012


50.
Ryan Christenson, LHP (6'1, 185, 23 years old)
- Christenson hasn't had much success thus far, but the potential is there. I mean, he is left-handed after all. He needs to miss a lot more bats to have a chance at success. His career 10.9 H/9 isn't going to get it done. He has average stuff from the left side and could ultimately end up as a reliever.
2011 ranking: Not ranked
2012 location: Low-A Great Lakes/High-A Rancho Cucamonga
ETA: late-2014


2012 Top Rookie: Eovaldi
2012 Sleeper: Josmar Cordero
2012 Breakout Prospect:
Wall

Best of the Dodger System

Best Hitter for Average Angelo Songco
Best Power Hitter Blake Smith
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Ivan DeJesus
Fastest Baserunner James Baldwin
Best Athlete Joc Pederson
Best Fastball Juan Rodriguez
Best Curveball Garrett Gould
Best Slider Shawn Tolleson
Best Changeup
Best Sinker
Zach Lee
Nathan Eovaldi
Best Control Allen Webster
Best Defensive Catcher Tim Federowicz
Best Defensive Infielder Ivan DeJesus
Best Infield Arm Pedro Baez
Best Defensive Outfielder Leon Landry
Best Outfield Arm
Best Five-Tool Prospect
Blake Smith
James Baldwin

Projected 2015 Lineup

Catcher Gorman Erickson
First Base James Loney
Second Base Jake Lemmerman
Third Base Tony Delmonico
Shortstop Dee Gordon
Left Field Andre Ethier
Center Field Matt Kemp
Right Field Jerry Sands
No. 1 Starter Clayton Kershaw
No. 2 Starter Rubby De La Rosa
No. 3 Starter Chad Billingsley
No. 4 Starter Zach Lee
No. 5 Starter Allen Webster
Closer Kenley Jansen

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Erickson, Martin, St. Clair among prospects unprotected for Rule 5 Draft

The Dodgers added five players to the 40-man roster on Friday night ahead of the deadline.

The players protected from Dec. 8's Rule 5 Draft are LHP Michael Antonini, OF Alex Castellanos, RHP Stephen Fife, RHP Josh Wall and RHP Chris Withrow.

Outfielders Alfredo Silverio and Scott Van Slyke were added on Nov. 3.

Castellanos, Wall and Withrow are no-brainers. All of them would have been appealing to other MLB teams.

Fife could have gone either way. He enjoyed decent success in Double-A, though he pitched better for the Red Sox's Double-A affiliate than he did for the Dodgers'.

Antonini, acquired last winter from the Mets for Chin-lung Hu, is a head-scratcher, especially in place of someone left off the list (see below).

He is left-handed and is technically a starter. But any success he has in the majors would come out of the bullpen.

His numbers weren't great, but they were in line with his career averages. His WHIP and K/9 were the only peripherals that were significantly different. Still, I don't see him a better lefty than Cole St. Clair.

More surprising are a couple of the names left unprotected.

Gorman Erickson, the Dodgers' best catching prospect in my book, could be selected, but it's unlikely. He played less than half his games with Chattanooga (41 games), but he did enjoy some success (.275/.329/.479). Catchers with a little pop are rare and hot commodities, so Erickson could get a look. Despite that, it'd still be surprising to see a team use a pick on him.

Former first-round pick Ethan Martin is among the unprotected. His omission isn't entirely surprising, as he cannot throw strikes in the minor leagues and a team isn't going to waste a 25-man roster spot on a guy like that.

The most likely player to be selected is the aforementioned St. Clair. He's a lefty who's had a solid Minor League career. He has a 3.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 2.88 BB/K ratio in 176 1/3 career innings. With the Lookouts in 2011, he posted a 3.04 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 8.2 K/9 and a 3.54 K/BB ratio. The 25-year-old could be appealing to a team.

Some other Dodgers left unprotected are Tony Delmonico, Jon Michael Redding and Kyle Russell. It's highly unlikely any of them -- or other eligible players -- are selected in the Major League portion of the draft.

Here's the rest of unprotecteds, courtesy of True Blue L.A.:

Geison Aguasviva, Pedro Baez, Joe Becker, Robert Boothe, Nick Buss, Jose Dominguez, Bladimir Franco, Carlos Frias, Austin Gallagher, Pedro Guerrero, Elian Herrera, Chris Jacobs, Ramon Jean, Justin Miller, Charlie Mirabal, Jaime Pedroza, Jordan Roberts, Andres Santiago, Tim Sexton, Steve Smith, Daniel Tamares, Matt Wallach, Josh Walter, Rafael Ynoa

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Reminder: I'll be posting my 2012 Top 50 prospects tomorrow.