Most surprising and disappointing Dodgers' prospects for 2013

There are surprises and disappointments in every sport, every year. I'm focusing on the Dodger prospects who surprised and disappointed.

Believe it or not, the "surprise" list was tougher to compile than expected. It's always easy to find the prospects who underperformed or didn't meet expectations.

No one in their right mind expected Julio Urias to do what he did in the Midwest League in his age-16 season, so he’s in a class all by himself.

The age listed is the player's age for the 2013 season.

Most surprising players

Noel Cuevas, OF, 21 years old

.284/.341/.454, 12 HR, 66 RBI, 38 SB, 6.9% BB rate

2013 Top 50 ranking: Not ranked

2013 Top 25 midseason: 24

- Cuevas had a pedestrian 2012 season across three minor-league levels. He was promoted to Rancho Cucamonga for the 2013 season and had his best year to date. He led the Quakes in stolen bases while playing predominantly center field. He was also one of three Quakes to post at least 20 doubles, 10 triples and 10 home runs. He could be a product of his environment, as he posted an OPS 157 points better at home than he did on the road. The conditions at LoanMart Field (The Epicenter) are fairly neutral, so a better indicator of his true skill at the plate could come next season in Chattanooga in his age-22 season.

Joey Curletta, OF, 19 years old

.326/.402/.461, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 41 R, 10.3% BB rate

2013 Top 50 ranking: NR

2013 Top 25 midseason: NR

- Despite playing in short-season ball, Curletta showed marked improvement from last season. The Dodgers’ sixth-round draft pick in 2012, Curletta established himself as one of the Ogden Raptors’ best hitters, posting an improved walk rate and a reduced strikeout rate. Curletta could be a big-time sleeper heading into 2014. He’ll need to prove himself in full-season ball. Here’s hoping he opens the season as the Loons’ right fielder. His massive power potential bodes well for his future, too.

Scott Schebler, OF, 22 years old

.296/.360/.581, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 95 R, 6.5% BB rate

2013 Top 50 ranking: 37

2013 Top 25 midseason: 18

- Schebler was my choice for first-team outfielder on my all-prospect team, and he was quite surprising in 2013. The talent was there, even if the results didn’t show it in 2012. He was the Quakes’ MVP in 2013, leading the team in virtually every major offensive category. And he posted good reverse platoon splits, which bodes well for him going forward. He’ll likely be one of the Lookouts’ best hitters next season, so he’ll need to prove 2013 wasn’t a fluke. He’s a corner outfielder long-term. He has enough arm for right to be at least average.

Most disappointing players

Garrett Gould, RHP, 21 years old

5-12, 6.64 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10.0 H/9, 7.9 K/9

2013 Top 50 ranking: 9

2013 Top 25 midseason: NR

- Gould has long since been a favorite of mine, but his prospect star has diminished significantly since the start of the 2012 season. He had a poor showing with the Quakes last year and was even worse in 2013. Despite that, he earned a promotion to Double-A, where he didn't fare much better. The thinking was along the lines of what the Dodgers did with Ethan Martin a couple years ago. He struck out more than a batter per inning in Double-A as a starter and reliever. But his overall numbers in 2013 were disappointing to me.

Andres Santiago, RHP, 23 years old

5-12, 4.97 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, 7.3 K/9

2013 Top 50 ranking: 18

2013 Top 25 midseason: NR

- Santiago was a surprise prospect last season, posting some really good numbers at High-A and Double-A last year, prompting me to rank him in my presason top 20. His numbers went the wrong way in virtually every category. By all indications, the stuff is still there, but his command went to hell. His 5.0 BB/9 is the worst of his career (save his debut year at age 17). He'll enter his age-24 season with something to prove, but he could be a middle reliever if everything clicks.

Jesus Valdez, 1B/OF, 21 years old

.249/.309/.397, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 41 R, 6.7% BB rate

2013 Top 50 ranking: 24

2013 Top 25 midseason: NR
- Valdez had done all his damage in short-season ball before 2013. He made his full-season debut at Great Lakes, and it was a flop. He posted a .454 OPS in 28 games, prompting a demotion back to Ogden. Valdez will likely get another shot in Great Lakes in 2014, but the numbers are not in his favor. Joc Pederson struggled at Great Lakes in 2011, but he was also 19 years old and has since thrived in the Dodgers' system.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Ogden Raptors being Pioneer League play, led by Valentin and Valdez

The Ogden Raptors open their 2013 campaign today and the roster is littered with some good, young talent and some 2013 draftees.

In recent years, players like Joc Pederson, O’Koyea Dickson, Corey Seager and Ross Stripling have cut their proverbial teeth in the league.

The Pioneer League is a hitter-friendly league in the rarefied air of Utah. Not many pitchers have success at the level -- especially young pitchers. It will be interesting to see how some of the young guys handle it.

The prospect on the Ogden roster closest to my Top 10 is Jesmuel Valentin (No. 13), who has already played with the Great Lakes Loons this season. The next-closest player is Jesus Valdez (No. 24), who also spent some time with the Loons this season.

2013 Ogden Raptors roster

Catchers

Austin Cowen

Kyle Farmer*

Infielders

Zach Babitt

Jake Chaplin

Faustino Oguisten

Dillon Moyer*

Alex Santana

Brandon Trinkwon*

Jesus Valdez

Jesmuel Valentin

Outfielders

Joey Curletta

Gerson Nunez

Jacob Scavuzzo

Pat Stover

Hank Yates*

Martinez

Starting pitchers

Scott Barlow

Michael Johnson*

Jonathan Martinez

Jacob Rhame*

J.D. Underwood*

Relief pitchers

Victor Araujo

James Baune*

Luis De Paula

Jose Agusto Diaz

Jake Fisher

Sawil Gonzalez

Kyle Hooper*

Ricky Perez

Thomas Taylor*

Francisco Villa

*- Denotes 2013 draftee

Not a lot of surprises, but I am disappointed to see guys like Valdez and Martinez on this roster. I thought they’d have more success in full-season ball. I haven’t given up hope on them yet, but a guy like Valdez needs to hit enough to get promoted back to Low-A and prove his worth. Martinez is 18 (for another week), so I’m not as concerned about him.

There are some interesting players to keep an eye on with this team. Santana was the Dodgers second-round pick in 2011 and should be the team’s everyday third baseman. I chose him as my breakout prospect for 2013. Valentin should hold down either shortstop or second base. Trinkwon will play whichever position Valentin does not.

In the outfield, Curletta should have a field day in this league. The powerful 2012 sixth-rounder should be the team’s starting right fielder and eventual cleanup hitter. He has legitimate 70-grade power. Stover is another guy who played with the Loons earlier this season. As the team’s 40th-rounder last year, it’s nice to see him actually playing.

In the rotation, this team has guys who have a lot of arm talent. Barlow is recovering from Tommy John surgery last season, but he has an electric arm and a legitimate breaking ball. He also throws a “show me” slider and changeup that could be average with work. Martinez had great success in the Arizona Rookie League last year before struggling as an 18-year-old in the Midwest League. The rest of the rotation should be filled with 2013 draftees. Underwood has a nice sinker/curveball combination, as does Rhame. Johnson is a soft-tossing lefty who could do well as an older pitcher against younger competition.

The bullpen has some good arms as well as guys who can swap spots with the rotation guys if need be.

My best guess at a lineup

Valentin SS

Trinkwon 2B

Stover DH/LF

Valdez 1B

Santana 3B

Curletta RF

Scavuzzo CF

Cowen/Farmer C

Yates LF/DH

I’m sure I missed on just about every spot (guess we’ll see tonight). There aren’t as many exciting prospects this year in Ogden, but there are definitely some guys to keep an eye on throughout the summer.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Great Lakes Loons announce 2013 roster, led by prospect Corey Seager

Seager

In the coming days, all the Dodger full-season minor-league affiliates will announce their opening day rosters. First up, the Low-A Great Lakes Loons of the Midwest League.

There are a few surprises, but nothing earth-shattering.

The squad is led by 2012 first-round pick Corey Seager, one of the Dodgers' best prospects. The team also boasts 2012 draftees Zachary Bird, Lindsey Caughel, Jharel Cotton, Scott Griggs, Paul Hoenecke, Jeremy Rathjen and Eric Smith.

My predictions were decent. I hit on 14 of 25 players. Normally, 56 percent is nothing to really brag about. But, I do write about baseball and a .560 batting, on-base or slugging percentage is video-game like.

Roster

Catchers
Jose Capellan
Tyle Ogle
Eric Smith

Infielders
Alexis Aguilar
Bladimir Franco
Paul Hoenecke
Malcolm Holland
Corey Seager
Jesus Valdez

Outfielders
James Baldwin
Jeremy Rathjen
Devin Shines

Martinez

Starting pitchers
Zachary Bird
Ralston Cash
Lindsey Caughel
Jonathan Martinez
Angel Sanchez
Miguel Sulbaran

Relief pitchers
Daniel Carela
Jharel Cotton
Carlos Frias
Sawil Gonzalez
Scott Griggs
Luis Meza
Arismendy Ozoria

The biggest surprise is probably Sanchez being demoted. He's 23 years old and, despite a terrible season at Rancho Cucamonga, I didn't see that coming. The last time he pitched in Midland was his first professional season and it put him on the prospect map. He'll need to re-establish himself at Low-A -- potentially as a reliever.

This team is filled with pretty solid prospects. Bird, Cotton and Martinez are some of the more intriguing pitching prospects to make this squad. Rathjen, who I thought should have begun the season in Rancho, should form a nice middle of the order with Seager and Valdez.

Valdez

My best guess at a lineup

Baldwin CF
Shines RF
Seager SS
Valdez 1B
Rathjen LF
Smith C
Franco 3B
Hoenecke DH
Holland 2B

There's definitely some potential in the lineup. In a league where hitters don't usually fare well, the Loons could surprise some teams with their offense.

If they can get some decent pitching from some of the youngsters, they could compete for a playoff spot.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Hit tool: Examining the best hitters in the Dodgers' farm system

When I think of batting average, guys like Wade Boggs, Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn come to mind. When I think of a keen eye at the plate, Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams are tops. When talking about the hit tool, these players encompass the best of both worlds.

Many players make it to the majors based on the strength of their hit tool, even if defense isn't their specialty.

The Dodgers probably don't have any of those kind of players in their system, as those Hall of Fame players aren't the norm. But there are some quality bats in the system -- something that couldn't be said even a year or two ago.

Yasiel Puig could be on this list, but his hit tool is just average at this point. But he sure is impressing in Spring Training so far.


Previous entries in this series

• Power
• Fastball
• Speed
• Slider

These are some of the prospects who have an above-average or better hit tool.

Alex Castellanos
- Castellanos isn't much of a defender, but he's hit the cover off the ball since being acquired by the Dodgers. He posted some ridiculous numbers in Triple-A last season: .328/.420/.590 with 17 home runs in 94 games. While Pacific Coast League numbers aren't to be trusted, Castellanos' bat appears to be the real deal. His improved walk rate helps him make this list. The video below gives me hope for Castellanos' long-term potential. He might not be a regular, but he's going to be a major leaguer based on the strength of his hit tool.




Joc Pederson
- I tabbed Pederson as the system's best hitter in my Top 50, and rightfully so. Pederson hit .313 with a .396 on-base percentage in 2012, which earned him Dodger Minor League Player of the Year honors. His smooth stroke from the left side and bat speed to be a regular, and his plate discipline is quite good for a player of his age. Chattanooga will be a nice test for the soon-to-be-21-year-old.

Jeremy Rathjen
- Rathjen fell to the 11th round after a knee injury, but he proved he could handle the bat well in his debut season. He hit .324 for Ogden with a team-leading 48 walks and .443 on-base percentage. He'll need to prove his debut season wasn't just a product of being an older prospect in rookie league ball. He has enough bat speed for that to happen.

Corey Seager
- Baseball America rated Seager as the system's best hitter for average, and it's hard to disagree. His debut season in Ogden was pretty impressive: .309/.383/.520. His walk rate is surprisingly advanced for an 18-year-old in his first professional season. Keith Law fancies Seager as a potential All-Star third baseman, and that doesn't come without a top-flight bat.



Jesus Valdez
- Valdez is a prospect who hasn't received much acclaim in his career, but he possesses a good hit tool. He posted a .400-plus on-base percentage as a 20-year-old in the Pioneer League -- no easy feat. He also hit for some pop (30 extra base hits) and drew a fair amount of walks (31 in 322 plate appearances). He isn't as good as guys like Seager and Castellanos, but he could take a big step forward in 2013 and establish himself as having one of the better bats in the system.

Dodgers' full-season minor league team preview: Great Lakes Loons

In the first of a four-part series, I'm going to look at my projected rosters for the full-season Dodger minor-league affiliates. First up, the Great Lakes Loons (Low-A).

The Loons went 67-73, which placed them sixth in the Midwest League's Eastern Division. The team was led by hitters like O'Koyea Dickson, Scott Schebler and Joe Winker and pitchers Arismendy Ozoria, Jarret Martin and Raydel Sanchez.

The 2013 squad should get a nice boost -- most of it coming from Pioneer League Ogden. This is my projected Loons' roster, which is sure to be wrong in some places.

Projected roster

Catchers (2)
Tyler Ogle
Eric Smith

Infielders (6)
Justin Boudreaux
Bladimir Franco
Paul Hoenecke
Delvis Morales
Corey Seager
Kevin Taylor

Outfielders (5)
Noel Cuevas
Malcolm Holland
Devin Shines
Pat Stover
Jesus Valdez

Starting pitchers (5)
Ralston Cash (if healthy)
Lindsey Caughel
Jharel Cotton
Carlos Frias
Jake Hermsen

Relief pitchers (7)
Victor Araujo
Daniel Coulombe
Gregg Downing
Sawil Gonzalez
Scott Griggs
Owen Jones
Craig Stem

The biggest name projected above is Seager, who figures to be the every day shortstop for the Loons. The Dodgers would be wise to challenge one of their best prospects to a great pitchers' league. He should be the No. 3 hitter for Great Lakes.

Valdez was good for the Raptors last season and it'll be interesting to see how he handles the Midwest League. He'll likely split time between right field and first base.

Smith, like Seager and Valdez before him, was good with Ogden and could be a middle-of-the-order guy for the Loons.

Cuevas, a surprise signing after the Dodgers chose him in the 21st round of the 2010 draft, struggled in his first showing with the Loons. He could be a starter with this year's squad.

My lineup
Holland CF
Cuevas LF
Seager SS
Valdez 1B/DH
Stover RF
Smith C
Hoenecke DH/1B
Franco 3B
Boudreaux 2B

I can guarantee it won't be like this, but that's how I'd do it.

As for pitching, if a guy like Ross Stripling is sent to High-A Rancho Cucamonga, the rotation could be a little thin.

Cash is a returning player who didn't finish the 2012 season. If he's healthy to start the season, he could be the Loons' Opening Day starter. Frias is also a returning player who split time between Great Lakes and Ogden in 2012.

Cotton and Caughel are sleepers who enjoyed success in the Pioneer League. Hermsen is the lone projected left-handed starter on my Loons squad.

The bullpen could be strong with guys like Coulumbe, Jones, Gonzalez and Griggs. Griggs would likely get first crack at closing for the Loons.

Photo credits

Seager: Courtesy of Perfect Game

Cuevas: mwlguide, Flickr

Ogden Raptors announce 2012 roster, less impressive than last year

With the Pioneer League season set to begin on Monday, it's time to take a look at the players who will be on the Ogden Raptors' initial roster.

Admittedly, this season's roster isn't as impressive as last year's, as players like Joc Pederson, O'Koyea Dickson and James Baldwin played for the team last year. But there are definitely some guys to keep an eye on down there.

The Dodgers send recent draftees and, most of the time, younger prospects to the Pioneer League.

Pitchers
Derek Cone
- Threw a couple innings with the Quakes last week, but will be on his third stint with the Raptors
Carlos De Aza
Gregg Downing
Michael Drowne
Carlos Frias
Sawil Gonzalez
Jake Hermsen
- 2012 29th-round draft pick
Owen Jones
- 2012 19th-round draft pick
Matt Laney
- Pitched with Great Lakes earlier this season (4.34 ERA, 1.51 WHIP)
Kazuki Nishijima
Craig Stem
Jason West
- Pitched with Great Lakes earlier this season (2.22 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)

Catchers
JJ Ethel
Jose Capellan

Infielders
Justin Boudreaux
- Struggled with Great Lakes this season (.144/.250/.212)
Tae-Hyeok Nam
- 21-year-old Korean prospect, had short stint with Ogden in 2009 (3-for-9, five strikeouts)
Alex Santana
- 2011 second-round pick, played in Arizona League last year (.238/.298/.339)
Darnell Sweeney
- 2012 13th-round pick
Kevin Thompson
Jesus Valdez
- 17th-round pick in 2011 (5th-rounder in 2010), played in Arizona League last year (.241/.312/.434)

Outfielders
Devon Ethier
- Andre Ethier's brother
Malcolm Holland
- Played 2B in Arizona League last year
Devin Shines
- Struggled with Great Lakes this season (.219/.287/.343)

Ross Stripling, the Dodgers' fifth-round pick, has said on Twitter he was going to Ogden, but he isn't on the roster. We'll see if that changes.

Keep an eye on...

• Cone - He's probably pitcher with the most promise on the staff, but that isn't saying a whole lot because he's struggled so far in his professional career. He had a 5.03 ERA last year with the Raptors, but he also had a 10.6 K/9, so there's definitely promise. He was my No. 33 prospect heading into the season.
• Santana - He was drafted high and is expected to produce. But he's just 18 years old and can't be expected to light up the league just yet. After Corey Seager, he's the Dodgers' best third base prospect. He was my No. 31 prospect heading into the season.
• Valdez - He has good power potential and at 6'3, 180 pounds, he still has room to fill out. He's 20 years old and it's anyone's guess where he'll play. With Santana around, first base seems most likely. He was my No. 38 prospect heading into the season.
• 2012 Draft Picks - Hermsen, Jones, Sweeney, all of whom were not professional ballplayers before June 4. It'll be interesting to see how they handle their first taste of pro ball.

Lineup
Here's my lineup and rotation if I'm Damon Berryhill (Raptors' manager):

Shines CF
Boudreaux 2B
Santana 3B
Valdez 1B (L)
Nam DH
Ethier RF
Ethel C
Holland LF
Sweeney SS (S)

Valdez is the only true left-handed hitter on the roster right now.

It's unlikely Seager will sign by Monday, but I assume he'll go to Ogden (or Arizona, I suppose) when he's signed. I'm a little surprised not to see Jesmuel Valentin on this roster, but that doesn't mean he won't get there eventually.

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J.P. Hoornstra of the L.A. Daily news wrote an article Friday about Dodgers' third-round pick Onelki Garcia, who signed with the team on Thursday. It's a good read about Garcia's trek to America and eventually professional baseball.

"After what Garcia has been through, with two months to work out a deal, the last place he seemed headed was free agency. Sure enough, he and the Dodgers agreed to terms Thursday. The terms were not immediately available."

Garcia could find himself in Ogden, but I'd like to see the 22-year-old be tested in Rancho Cucamonga.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue