Memo to Masahiro Tanaka: Happy wife, happy life -- choose the Dodgers

I'm getting married in July, and I already know the Golden Rule: Happy wife, happy life. I'm hoping Masahiro Tanaka subscribes to this rule.

We're 10 days away from the absolute last date Tanaka has to sign with a Major League team, and it seems the sweepstakes is down to the Yankees and Dodgers. The Yankees need him infinitely more than the Dodgers do. For the Dodgers, he'd be a luxury -- a fine luxury. But it seems his wife could be a factor in his decision.

Her name is Mai Satoda. I admittedly don't know anything about this woman, but her preference, reportedly, is to be on the West Coast -- more specifically, Los Angeles (sorry, Seattle). She's a pop star in Japan and presumably wants to be close to Hollywood so she can further her career.

It doesn't really matter where Tanaka goes. He's going to get paid either way. The Dodgers can probably offer him the most money, while the Yankees are desperate for quality starting pitchers. Money isn't the issue here.

No amount of money can account for a happy wife. If Tanaka is smart and wants to keep his wife happy, he'll choose Los Angeles.



When Hiroki Kuroda came over from Japan, one request he had was he wanted to wear No. 18. While Tim Federowicz wears the number in LA, I'm sure he'd have no problem giving it up (right, Tim?). In New York, Kuroda -- Tanaka's best comp -- wears No. 18. As silly as it sounds, that could make some kind of difference.

As a soon-to-be-married man who isn't about to make more money than I'll ever spend, the decision is easy for me, and I'm sure my Dodger fandom has nothing to do with this.

Then again, New York is New York. We'll see what happens. But if Tanaka's wife's preference has any bearing on his choice, I like the Dodgers' chances.

Photo credit: Tom Grieve, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers' SP alternatives to signing Masahiro Tanaka aren't great

Everyone assumes the Dodgers are going to sign Masahiro Tanaka this winter. It's a reasonable assumption. But what happens if the Dodgers don't end up with the 25-year-old Japanese righty?

The new posting system, which was reportedly agreed upon before MLB pulled the offer last week, has been delayed again. Reports now say Tanaka might not be posted until the end of the year (six weeks). The Dodgers can't really sit back and wait for an unsure acquisition, unless they're going to post $100 million, pretty much assuring they'll have the right to negotiate with him.

Then again, the Yankees are desperate for starting pitching and want to keep payroll at less than $189 million to avoid a ridiculous luxury tax. The posting fee isn't included in the payroll.

Many (myself included) think David Price is option No. 2. But recent news is making me question that. 

Stan Kasten and Co., seem hell-bent on building through the farm system -- which is awesome. To acquire Price, the number of high-celing prospects going to Tampa Bay would be prohibitive with Kasten's philosophy.

So, who's next on the list?

We can cross off guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, Hiroki Kuroda and Ervin Santana off the list, as they received qualifying offers from their teams, which means the Dodgers would have to forfeit their first-round draft pick to sign either one. While both Kuroda and Santana are quality pitchers (Jimenez not so much), it just isn't worth it.

If Kuroda didn't have draft pick compensation tied to him, he'd be near the top of my list of free agent targets.

That leaves pitchers like Bronson Arroyo, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, Scott Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco and Jason Vargas available on the free agent market. Let's look at each of these guys.

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Arroyo

- Soft-tossing righty with propensity to give up home runs. Dodgers have reportedly been in contact. Don't really want him in Blue.

Colon

- On the wrong side of 30 (he'll be 41 in May) and the wrong side of 275 pounds. Had a great 2013, but can't be counted on.

Feldman

- Should be a nice cost-effective starter, but he'll be massively overpaid by a team desperate for starting pitching.

Garza

- The most talented/healthy free agent starter (and the biggest jerkstore), Garza is going to get a 4-year commitment at or more than $15 million per season. The Dodgers could afford it, but they might not want to pay it. Had interest in him in 2012.

Haren

- As a No. 5 starter, he'd be a great pickup. As a No. 4 starter, maybe not so much. Had a resurgent second half in Washington and might do well coming home.

Johnson

- Johnson has ace potential, but he's never been able to stay healthy and had a miserable year north of the border. He'll sign a pillow contract (1-year deal to re-establish value) with someone. San Diego and San Francisco are interested.

Kazmir

- Reclamation project who struck out more than a batter per inning in 2013. Cleveland would love to bring him back. More of a high-risk signing for the Dodgers.

Nolasco

- He'd be a fine No. 4 starter for the Dodgers. Problem is, there are teams lining up to give him big money on 3- and/or 4-year deals. Reports say the Padres, Phillies and Twins are in on him, as well as 'Frisco (maybe not so much now after signing Tim Hudson).

Vargas

- Pitched in Anaheim last year and was pretty decent (but not anywhere close to Zack Greinke). Angels need pitching perhaps more than any team in baseball. I'm betting he goes back there.

-----
 

As for trade targets, teams aren't exactly rushing to trade good starters. Price is out there, the Cardinals have about eleventy billion starters (but most are cost-effective and really good), and the Phillies have some high-priced hurlers they should trade, but won't (see Marlon Byrd and Carlos Ruiz signings). There's also some scuttlebutt the Mariners might trade Hisashi Iwakuma to improve offensively, but I'm not so sure the Dodgers match up that well. Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp would be logical targets for Seattle.

The Dodgers could also turn to the farm system. Zach Lee is not only the Dodger starting pitching prospect closest to the majors, he's the best. With Josh Beckett on track for opening day (we'll see about that), the Dodgers need at least one pitcher. Maybe Lee is that guy.

Stripling

Another starter close to the majors is Ross Stripling. He's similar to Lee in terms of frame, repertoire and maturity, but he might need a little more seasoning in Double-A.

Chris Reed also pitched at Double-A last season, but I'm not at all confident in him being in the rotation in 2014 (or ever, really).

Guys like 2013 draft picks Chris Anderson and Tom Windle are at least a year away from contributing in the rotation (and that's being optimistic), while Julio Urias is at least two years away.

Onelki Garcia looks like a reliever at this point and Matt Magill (or McGill, if you listen to Jim Bowden)  wasn't great in his debut. I still have faith in him, but he might be better off coming out of the bullpen in the majors. Stphen Fife and Red Patterson are extreme longshots.

No matter what the Dodgers decide to do, they'll need at least one addition to the rotation (maybe two). Chad Billingsley is due back midseason, but I'm guessing he'll get the lion's share of his work out of the bullpen when he comes back.

Photo credits

Arroyo: SD Dirk, Flickr

Stripling: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 12 - Dodgers, Ryu, Greinke, Kuroda, McGwire, AFL

On this episode of  "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (L.A. Dugout) and I talk about the Hyun-Jin Ryu winning bid. We discuss his potential and what it might take to get him under contract. We also touch on free agent starting pitchers -- namely Zack Greinke and Hiroki Kuroda. It's safe to say, we're on the same page regarding these two. The Mark McGwire hiring is discussed, as well as a winter ball update, including Onelki Garcia, Joc Pederson and Chris Reed.

Libsyn link
Direct link
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Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday at 12 p.m.

Despite Hiroki Kuroda's ability, the Dodgers cannot afford to sign him

Hiroki Kuroda's major league career began with the Dodgers in 2008 at the spry old age of 33. He was nothing but good for the Dodgers (3.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11.9 fWAR) and had a solid season for the Yankees in 2012.

But the Dodgers should not and cannot sign him.

It's nothing personal with the guy. Hell, the Dodgers should not have let him walk after the 2011 season. But the fact he was extended a qualifying offer by the Yankees should take the Dodgers out of the running for his services.

Because he was extended the offer, the signing team would have to give up its first-round draft pick. The teams interested in Kuroda's services include the Yankees, Red Sox and the Dodgers. There is also a chance he could return to Japan.

Yet, reports say he's one of the team's top targets this winter. From Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times:

"The Dodgers' pursuit of free-agent pitcher Hiroki Kuroda illustrates how much the franchise's economic realities have changed in the last year.

The Dodgers never made Kuroda a formal offer when he was a free agent last winter, as they were still owned by Frank McCourt and in bankruptcy. Now, even with six starting pitchers under contract for next season, they are among the teams in active talks with Kuroda's agent."

Thankfully, Hernandez goes on to write this:

"The Dodgers are also believed to be interested in Zack Greinke and Anibal Sanchez."

I get it. Kuroda is a quality pitcher, something the Dodgers could use in the rotation. But he's not a young guy and having to give up the draft pick is the only reason I don't want to see the Dodgers bring him back.

Now, before you call me a prospect hoarder, let me justify my stance.

Many experts are saying the 2013 draft class could be even weaker than the 2012 class, which wasn't particularly strong. With the Dodgers not getting any competitive balance compensatory selections or any picks from their free agents, they can't afford to give up their pick for a guy in his late-30s -- no matter how good he is.

Love ya, Hiroki, but the Dodgers need to stay away.

Report: Dodgers interested on Korean lefty

The Dodgers are interested in acquiring Korean left-handed pitcher Ryu Hyun-jin. The 25-year-old is considered to be the best pitcher available from the country.

The Cubs have submitted a bid for him. It's unknown if any other bids were made for Hyun-jin's services.

Photo credit: Cbl62, Wikimedia Commons

Shohei Otani elects for free agency, Dodgers a possible destination

Get used to the name Shohei Otani, folks. You'll be hearing it for a long time. The Japanese right-hander today announced he will pursue a career in Major League Baseball.

What makes this situation different is he's just 18 years old. Usually, Japanese players are bound to play for the Nippon Professional Baseball League until their mid-to-late-20s, so to get a player of Otani's ability while he's still a teenager could mean great things for him and his team.

Here is some footage of Otani in action.



Otani seems to be excited about the prospect of playing Major League Baseball.

"'I think I will start in the minor leagues but I want to challenge in the majors. It's been my dream since entering high school.'"

The long-term imapct of Otani's decision on the NPB is unknown, but his decision could be the start of something new in Japan.

"Otani was expected to go in the first round of Thursday's amateur draft in Japan.

If he signs with a major league team, Otani would become the first potential top draft pick to make the direct jump from a Japanese high school to the U.S."

However, I'd expect the NPB to fix whatever loophole may be present to prevent too many of these situations in the future.

Signing Otani won't come down to which team offers him the most money. Otani falls under the international spending limits from MLB's new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and the Dodgers have already tapped into some of that budget. It's going to come down to who's the best salesman.

Assistant General Manager Logan White understands that and has been actively on the case for more than a month now.

"The Los Angeles Dodgers will be/were the first to meet with Otani today. They had actually scheduled an appointment to drop by Hanamaki Higashi before they knew that he was going to file his letter of intent. Logan White (Assistant GM, Amateur and International Scouting), Acey Kohrogi (Executive Director, Asian Operations and Scouting), and Keiichi Kojima (scout) are expected to attend the meeting. The Red Sox are also said to be interested.

Dodgers could be front runners for Otani: scout Kojima has been keeping track of Otani since he was a first year high school student and assistant GM White was in Japan in March to watch him pitch in a practice game. Otani will not attend the meeting.  Hanamaki Higashi manager Hiroshi Sasaki will represent him. At least five MLB teams, including the Rangers and Red Sox are said to be interested."

The Dodgers are not shy when attempting to sign Japanese players.

• Hideo Nomo was the biggest get back in 1995.
• Kazuhisa Ishii, seen as a solid pitcher at the time, wasn't that great.
• Takashi Saito, however, was great for the Dodgers. It's too bad he didn't make it to the majors until his late-30s. He could have been something special.
• Hiroki Kuroda, who I wouldn't mind seeing back with the Dodgers next season, was the most recent prominent player the Dodgers signed out of Japan.

Oh, and who could forget Norihiro Nakamura -- No. 66 in your programs and, well, probably No. 66 in your hearts.

The Dodgers will do whatever they can to get Otani to agree to play in Los Angeles. As I wrote last week, this would be a great acquisition for the Dodgers. I didn't see it as likely (not many did), but now that Otani has elected for free agency, it's exciting to think of the possibilities.

Hiroki Kuroda wanted to stay and the possible Rams-Dodgers connection

Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times caught up with former-Dodger-turned Yankee Hiroki Kuroda and confirmed what a lot of Dodger fans suspected: he wanted to stay in Los Angeles.

"Asked whether he would have remained with the Dodgers had they made him a reasonable offer, Kuroda said, 'It's hard to talk about something hypothetical. Obviously, I was comfortable there. I liked it there. My family liked it there.'

In fact, Kuroda said his wife and two school-age daughters will remain in Los Angeles while he is in New York next season.

'Part of me is sad to leave Los Angeles,' he said. 'I loved the atmosphere of the stadium.'"

So, anyone who claims Kuroda wasn't loyal or went back on his word can shove it. The guy wanted to be a Dodger and Ned Colletti failed to make that happen.

And how the hell were the Dodgers going to fit Kuroda in after signing Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano? Kuroda is obviously better and he would have bumped one of them to the bullpen, but what the hell is Colletti thinking? Just another in the long line of missteps by the Dodgers' GM.

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Earlier this week, prospective bidders for the Dodgers' ownership placed preliminary bids. There were the usual names -- Magic Johnson, Joe Torre, Mark Cuban, et al -- but a new name entered the fray: Stan Kroenke.

Kroenke is the new owner of the St. Louis Rams and there's a lot of speculation the Rams could be on their way back to L.A. -- even moreso after Kroenke "explored" a possible bid for the Dodgers.

While the rules are not exactly straightforward, Forbes' reporter Mike Ozanian had this to say:

"NFL rules prohibit an owner from having controlling interest in a major sports team outside of the football team’s market."

...and

"Even if Kroenke doen’t get the Dodgers, the fact that he is bidding for the team implies the Rams are bolting for L.A."

As a Rams' fan, this is great news. Of course, it's a bit presumptuous at this point. The Rams cannot move before 2014 and the Dodgers' ownership situation is set to be resolved by April 6 (with the new owner taking over April 30).

Then there's this from Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk:

"If Kroenke owns the Dodgers and another team moves to Los Angeles, how would the NFL’s cross-ownership rules apply? Currently, an owner of an NFL team can own a non-football team in another market as long as there’s no NFL team in that market. If Kroenke buys a baseball team in Los Angeles, which would be permissible, and then an NFL team other than the one owned by Kroenke moves there, the situation could get dicey, to say the least."

...and

"It may be that Kroenke would merely be required at that point to transfer the paperwork of the Dodgers to another family member. Regardless, it would be hard not to view a purchase of the Dodgers as a potential precursor to moving the Rams to the same town."

So, who the hell knows?

I doubt Kroenke -- despite being a billionaire -- is going to spread his money that thin. He dropped $450 million on the Rams (a 60-percent share) and I don't think he'll be in the rumored $1.5-plus billion bidding unless he partners up with one of the billionaire super groups.

Still, the prospect of the Dodgers getting a wealthy owner and the Rams returning to Los Angeles makes me all giddy. But it's early in the process -- I should really temper my enthusiasm until more news potentially breaks.

Dodgers avoid arbitration with Andre Ethier and James Loney

The Dodgers avoided arbitration today with Andre Ethier and James Loney, signing them both to 1-year deals.

Ethier will earn, surprisingly, $10.95 million as a base salary. Tony Jackson has the contract details:

"Ethier's deal is one year, $10.95 mill plus $25,000 for each of 600 and 625 plate appearances. He has reached 600 PAs just once, in 2009"

It's surprising because he made $9.25 million last year and he was almost a lock to make at least $11- or $12 million in base salary. Instead, he got an 18 percent raise (thanks to Jon Weisman for pointing that out).

Even without Kim Ng looming, the Dodgers were able to get Ethier for less than a lot of people thought.

The base contract is $45,000 less than the Dodgers' second-highest paid player for 2012: Ted Lilly.

Mike Petriello pointed out Lilly will make $12 million this year, as he's due a $1.5 million signing bonus in April. So by April, barring something totally unexpected, Lilly will be the team's highest paid player. That's awfully depressing.

Jackson also has the details of Loney's contract:

"Loney deal is $6.375 mill plus $25k for 585 PAs, $50k for each of 625/650 PAs. Would max out at $6.5 mill"

As Weisman points out, Loney got a 31 percent raise. I was expecting somewhere in the range of a $6- to $7 million contract for Loney, so this isn't too bad. And the only reason he's still a Dodger is because of his late-season surge.

However, with that money and the $18.75 million the Dodgers spent on spare parts this off-season, they could have easily landed Hiroki Kuroda, Prince Fielder and a couple of the other guys General Manager Ned Colletti just had to have.

Sorry, had to get that dig in there.

Clayton Kershaw is expected to go to arbitration, as the two sides couldn't agree to a contract before the deadline.

The kid is gonna get paid. It'd be nice to lock him up long-term, but I suspect that will happen next winter.

Why is Ned Colletti in a rush to sign mediocre free agents?

Since Ned Colletti was named Dodgers' general manager in late 2005, he's always been in a rush to sign free agents. One has to wonder why that is. It has cost the Dodgers a lot and is just a bad practice in general.

Here are all Colletti's major signings in November and December:

December 2005
Bill Mueller
Nomar Garciaparra
Rafael Furcal
Kenny Lofton
Brett Tomko

November 2006
Garciaparra (re-signed)
Juan Pierre
Randy Wolf

December 2006
Luis Gonzalez
Jason Schmidt

December 2007
Andruw Jones
Hiroki Kuroda

December 2008
Casey Blake (re-signed)
Furcal (re-signed)

December 2009
Jamey Carroll

November 2010
Kuroda (re-signed)
Jon Garland
Juan Uribe

December 2010
Rod Barajas
Vicente Padilla
Matt Guerrier

November 2011
Juan Rivera
Mark Ellis

December 2011
Chris Capuano
Jerry Hairston
Aaron Harang

Some of these signings were good: Furcal (both times), Garciaparra (first time), Lofton, Wolf (both times) and Kuroda (both times).

However, most of these signings were made in haste, either costing the Dodgers money by not playing the market and not playing young players or losing out to superior players. And the Dodgers haven't signed any elite players in this time period.

Colletti's refusal to trust -- or even give a legitimate chance to -- young players was apparent in 2007 and even today. In November 2006, he re-signed Garciaparra to a 2-year, $18 million contract without blinking. James Loney was fully ready to take over.

Pierre, being pursued by only the Giants in November 2006, was signed before the market could even play out. The Giants had reportedly offered him a contract in the neighborhood of $30 million over three years. Colletti, for some reason, felt compelled to give Pierre five guaranteed years and $14 million more.

Was Kenny Lofton's 2006 performance (.301/.360/.403) not good enough? It was better than anything Pierre did in his time as a Dodger, except when he was (rightfully so) a part-time player for the team in 2008. Yet, Colletti didn't even give re-signing Lofton a second thought. Curious, as Lofton was approaching age 40 and seemed to be right up Colletti's alley. I guess Pierre was more the player he was looking for. It's one of the only times Colletti has chosen a younger player instead of an older player.

With Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand and Ichiro Suzuki all 2008 free agents (at the time of Pierre's deal -- Suzuki signed an extension with the Mariners later that season), Colletti couldn't possibly have waited for a better player? I know he eventually signed Jones (who busted) and Rowand got a ridiculous contract, but it's the principle of the matter.

The same thing happened when he signed Luis Gonzalez for the 2007 season. Ethier was ready to take over in left field, putting up a .308/.365/.477 as a rookie in 441 plate appearances. Instead, he and Kemp were forced to split time with the likes of Gonzalez and Pierre. The Dodgers won 82 games in 2007 and probably wouldn't have been much worse off getting Ethier and Kemp 500 at-bats.

I was actually on board with the Schmidt and Jones signings, so I can't be too upset about those.

However, jumping at the bit to re-sign Blake after his less-than half-season with the Dodgers was inexcusable. The Dodgers had Blake DeWitt, who, in hindsight, wasn't the greatest option, capable of playing third base until someone better came along.

The fact that he gave Blake three guaranteed years when the only team seriously in on him was the Minnesota Twins is a classic example of the market playing Colletti. It should be the other way around. Blake had a fine 2009 season, but was not great and riddled with injuries after that, which isn't exactly abnormal for a 36-year-old player.

A good -- or even somewhat competent GM -- would play the market and not get taken in by past success, irrational mistrust of young players and minimal postseason success.

Which leads us to one Juan Uribe. He was signed on Nov. 30, 2011 when there was absolutely no reason to sign a guy like that to a contract like that (3 years, $21 million). Once again, the Giants and Colletti were in competition for a bad baseball player, and the Dodgers, unfortunately, won again.

Colletti was also in such a rush to sign Guerrier that he inexplicably gave him a 3-year contract.

If that wasn't bad enough, the 2011 off-season might take the cake. We know the Dodgers weren't going to be in on Albert Pujols, but why was Colletti's priority to sign replacement-level players (Rivera, Ellis, Capuano, Harang) and guys who deserve minor-league deals only (Kennedy, Matt Treanor) over guys like Kuroda and Prince Fielder?

No one knows for sure, but Colletti's refusal to trust young players could be an explanation.

Rivera was signed when Jerry Sands is perfectly capable of taking the reins. Ellis was signed in lieu of using a combination of Ivan DeJesus and Justin Sellers. Capuano and Harang are expected to replace Kuroda's production, which likely won't happen. Those guys are decent options at the back of the rotation, but the money they're earning $6 million (total) this season -- $6 million that could have been used to re-sign Kuroda and go with a rookie (Nathan Eovaldi) or a non-roster invitee (a player who always seems to find his way onto the Dodgers).

The Dodgers have needed a real bat for years (not Jones, not J.D. Drew, etc.). Prince Fielder is available and the Dodgers don't even think twice about pursuing him. I know the ownership situation is a mess, but every guaranteed contract this off-season (save Rivera and MacDougal's) has an uneven split between 2012 and 2013.

The Dodgers have spent $18.75 million this off-season on nine players, none of whom couldn't have been replaced by minor-league talent or non-roster invitees (I'm OK with the Gwynn signing, though).

The Dodgers could have signed both Kuroda and Fielder (with deferred money, of course) and have been a better team. Instead, Fielder is still a free agent, Kuroda signed with the Yankees and the Dodgers are not any better right now (arguably worse) than they were at the end of the 2011 season.

It's easy to rip Colletti and call him a double agent (working for the Giants). We all know he isn't, but some of the moves really make you wonder. Then again, he "crafted" his trade under Brian Sabean, the undisputed king of signing over-the-hill free agents and not trusting young players.

Colletti's job hasn't been easy the last couple of years, but the misallocation of resources has never been more apparent. I mean, the Dodgers are still paying for the likes of Manny Ramirez and Jones, Kuroda's signing bonus ($1.5 million this January and $2.5 million next January) and just got done paying off deferred money and signing bonuses from Pierre's and Furcal's contracts. That, and striking out on free agents, has kept the Dodgers from being serious championship contenders.

The 2008 and 2009 squads had the talent to make it as far as the National League Championship Series. Running into a hot Phillies' team both years didn't help, but having the ability to add a key piece (Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, etc.) would have gone a long way to bringing a championship back to Los Angeles.

Hiroki Kuroda signs 1-year deal with Yankees

Former Dodgers' starter Hiroki Kuroda signed a 1-year deal believed to be worth $10 or $11 million today with the Yankees.

This deal follows the blockbuster trade that landed the Yankees Michael Pineda from the Mariners for Jesus Montero.

I hope Kuroda does well in New York. It's obvious he wanted to remain in Los Angeles, especially after invoking his no-trade clause at the trade deadline. It seems he was likely to end up in Boston in that trade. The Red Sox showed interest in him this winter, too.

But here we are in the new year and Kuroda is heading 3,000 miles east. It's unfortunate because Kuroda is coming off one of his best seasons and is actually, according to the first report, taking a small paycut from last year's $12 million salary.

We've been through the "Dodgers should have brought back Kuroda" song and dance, so we won't go there again.

Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness called this one on Twitter, kinda, on Tuesday.

"Not to stir the rumor mill, but Kenji Nimura, who joined the Dodgers in 08 to translate for Kuroda, has moved on to the Yankees."

It remains to be seen if this actually had an impact on Kuroda's decision, but it's safe to assume it had at least a little bearing on the signing.

Anyway, here's to Kuroda doing well in New York. He was a strong competitor and did nothing but his job for the Dodgers.

Dodgers about done with moves, focus on Winter Development Program

To no one's surprise, Ned Colletti said the Dodgers are at their payroll limit, meaning there are not going to be anymore significant moves this off-season.

It's disappointing to know guys like Hiroki Kuroda and Prince Fielder, who seemingly want to be in Los Angeles, have no chance of playing there because of a limited payroll.

Then there's this gem from Ramona Shelburne's article:

..."(the payroll) is down from a year ago. But sometimes it's not what you spend but how you spend it."

Really Ned? You don't say. It's too bad he doesn't take his own advice, because he's spent money more foolishly than almost any other general manager since 2006.

Just another chapter in the long book for frustration for the Dodgers' upper management for the last seven-to-10 years.

#####

The Dodgers began their annual Winter Development Program a few days ago. The Dodgers had 15 prospects/young players attend, as well as some Major Leaguers.

Players in attendance:

Steve Ames, Michael Antonini, Alex Castellanos, Rubby De La Rosa, Gorman Erickson, Tim Federowicz, Stephen Fife, Tyler Henson (acquired from the Orioles), Alfredo Silverio, Shawn Tolleson, Scott Van Slyke, Josh Wall, Matt Wallach, Allen Webster and Chris Withrow.

Roberto Baly of Vin Scully is my Homeboy has a ton of photos and videos from Monday's media day. He also said in his blog post he saw Castellanos playing some second base, a position he played in the minors. There was talk earlier in the winter about trying him at first base, but if he can hit like he did in 2011 as a second baseman, he could see himself in Los Angeles sooner rather than later.

Brandon Lennox of True Blue L.A. was also in attendance and said Don Mattingly said Castellanos would play mostly in the outfield. It's always nice to know if a guy has versatility, though. He said he also saw Henson playing third base. Like Castellanos, Henson is mostly known for playing outfield, but he has some infield experience in the minors.

Dodgers sign Jerry Hairston 2-year deal

The Dodgers' busy, but not especially successful, off-season continued today as they agreed to terms with utility man Jerry Hairston on a two-year deal.

He'll make $6 million in those two years.

The former Brewer, National, Padre, Yankee, Red, Ranger, Cub and Oriole hit .270/.344/.383 last season. He'll be a fine utility player, but did the Dodgers really need him?

Probably not. But it was probably one of the best signings of the off-season, which is saying something for a team in desperate need of offense.

I'm sure Hairston won't make $3 million this season, but it seems like money better spent in other areas.

Update (Dec. 5, 4:13 p.m.): Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times has the details.

"Jerry Hairston Jr. has signed a two-year, $6 million deal with the #Dodgers. He will earn $2.25 million in 2012 and $3.75 million in 2013."

So, not as backloaded as I thought -- not that a $6 million contract could be that backloaded.

Hairston can play second base, third base, shortstop and all the outfield spots effectively. He'll be this season's "supersub."

#####

And then there's this from FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal:

"#Dodgers still working on Harang. Deal expected to be north of Capuano. Two years, $12M range. #MLB"

I said I wasn't opposed to the Chris Capuano/Harang duo replacing Hiroki Kuroda and bumping Nathan Eovaldi to a bullpen role, but to see the amount of money being doled to mediocre veterans, it makes me wonder why that money wasn't spent on Hiroki?

It just doesn't make sense. I could drone on about this in every post for the rest of the off-season, but I'm going to leave it at that.

Hiroki Kuroda open to playing elsewhere

With the Dodgers singing Chris Capuano on Friday, the door effective shut on Hiroki Kuroda's chances of returning to the Dodgers.

Now, Kuroda has said he's willing to play elsewhere -- and not just in Japan.

General Manager Ned Colletti had already decided before Thanksgiving the Dodgers would have a hard time re-signing Kuroda. Now, the Angels, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Rockies and Tigers all have interest in the 37-year-old righty. The Carp of the Japanese league have already made him an offer to return home.

The Diamondbacks, Red Sox and Tigers were all mentioned as possible suitors at the July 31 deadline.

Many were upset at Kuroda's decision to not waive his no-trade clause to help the Dodgers acquire young talent at the trade deadline. I was disappointed, but I respected Kuroda's loyalty to the team.

He's apparently seeking a $12 to $13 million deal on the open market, which he should have no problem landing because he won't require a long-term commitment.

Some are upset at this notion, but I'm really not. Kuroda is free to do what he wants. The Dodgers simply mismanaged their money and now have little chance to retain the solid right-hander.

I wish him luck where ever he ends up. If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on Boston.

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ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted earlier Aaron Harang might be a fit as the Dodgers' No. 5 starter.

I said as much in my last post. I'd be all for it. Having Capuano and Harang would come be a much better alternative to Kuroda than just Capuano.

I could see the Dodgers bringing him in on a back-loaded contract. The Dodgers are also, for some reason, searching for a veteran utility player and veteran middle reliever.

The last is more puzzling than the first. If the Dodgers sign Harang, Nathan Eovaldi moves to the bullpen. I know he's still a rookie, but Eovaldi in the bullpen would all but eliminate the "need" for a veteran reliever.

The money would be much better spent on Harang than some middling relief pitcher.

One thing's for certain: the Dodgers won't likely make any big splashes at the Winter Meetings (which start tomorrow). It'd take payroll flexibility and/or a creative GM, and the Dodgers have neither of those.

Dodgers sign Chris Capuano to 2-year deal, world is NOT ending

The Dodgers signed left-handed pitcher Chris Capuano today to a 2-year, $10 million deal, according to multiple reports.

The deal also includes a mutual option for 2014, reports the L.A. Times' Dylan Hernandez.

Contrary to popular belief, the world has not ended because of this signing. While it likely spells the end of Hiroki Kuroda's Dodger career, things could be worse: this money could have been thrown at a worse version of Capuano -- Jeff Francis.

Capuano is coming off a decent season with the Mets, going 11-12 with a 4.55 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 3.17 K/BB ratio. Those are the good numbers.

The bad numbers include a 4.55 ERA, 9.6 H/9, 1.3 HR/9 and an 87 ERA+. Also included in the bad are his numbers away from pitcher-friendly Citi Field:

Home: 4-5, 3.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.84 K/BB
Away: 7-7, 5.42 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.57 K/BB

Capuano is similar to a guy the Dodgers already have: Ted Lilly. But it might surprise one to learn Capuano averaged more innings per start (5.97 to 5.83) and struck out more batters per nine innings (8.1 to 7.4) than Lilly did in 2011.

As a complement to Kuroda, Capuano would have been just fine. This signing implies Kuroda is either open to pitching for another U.S. team, going back to Japan or retiring. My money is on Japan.

However, if Kuroda really loves pitching in Los Angeles and is willing to take a massively deferred contract, he could still return. But that's highly unlikely.

Capuano's fastball is his main pitch, as it averages 87.9 MPH. He threw it 57.9 percent of the time in 2011 -- a career high. He also uses a solid changeup (78.3 MPH) and slider (79.6 MPH). He also has a cutter he doesn't use much.

He's a soft-tosser like Lilly, but this signing isn't all bad for the Dodgers.

Capuano has appeared at Dodger Stadium five times in his career:

23 IP, 29 H, 11 R, 11 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 20 K

Not great, but not bad, either.

Something I am pleased with is his improved control. In 2005, his best season, he walked 91 batters (3.7 BB/9 and 1.93 K/BB). Since then, his control numbers look a lot better (2.5 BB/9, 3.02 K/BB).

And for those complaining about his home run numbers compared with Kuroda, he gave up 0.2 more HR/9 than Hiroki. So, it's not all bad.

Now, for the same money, I would rather the Dodgers signed Aaron Harang, who probably won't get much more than $5 million a season on the open market. A 2-year, guaranteed deal for a guy who missed the entire 2008 season and spent the entire 2009 season in the minors is a bit of a head-scratcher, though.

The Twins reported showed interest in him, but $10 million for two years seems like a slight overpay. It's reminiscent of the Casey Blake signing a few years ago.

Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. notes Capuano filled the final open spot on the team's 40-man roster. To make anymore additions to the roster, players will have to be waived, outrighted or released.

The Dodgers, a team most knew would have to be frugal this off-season, didn't exactly spend its money that well.

Capuano - $5 million (not confirmed)
Juan Rivera - $4 million
Mark Ellis - $2.5 million
Matt Treanor - $850,000
Adam Kennedy - $800,000
Total: $13.15 million*
*- Does not include Matt Kemp's $10 million salary, which was awesome

Four roster spots were filled, but was the money allocated as well as it could be? Rivera's role could have been filled by someone who cost a lot less or the Dodgers could just trust Jerry Sands and his ability. Ellis' role could have been filled by Justin Sellers, Adam Kennedy or Ivan De Jesus. Treanor's spot could have been filled by Tim Federowicz, but I can at least understand wanting Federowicz to play full-time in Triple-A to start the season.

Are the Dodgers a better team right now than they were on the last day of the 2011 season? Not really.

While I wasn't totally against the Rivera and Ellis signings, they look pretty bad now, considering the Dodgers probably don't have enough money to bring back Kuroda.

The rotation is setting up as such:

Clayton Kershaw
Chad Billingsley
Lilly
Capuano
Dana Eveland/Nathan Eovaldi

There are a lot of question marks there. There is potential for Billingsley to be the only right-handed starter the Dodgers have (to start the season at least). That's almost unheard of. Still, I'd rather see Eovaldi get a chance as the No. 5 starter.

Who knows? Maybe the Dodgers will see if they can bring in Harang for a cheaper deal (with deferred money of course, because that's now the Dodger way).

But don't hold your breath.

Dodgers meet with Aaron Harang's agent

Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com reported today the Dodgers' General Manager Ned Colletti met with Aaron Harang's agent. However, Hiroki Kuroda is still the Dodgers' priority.

Harang made $4 million last season with the Padres and received a $500,000 buyout when the team didn't exercise the mutual option.

So, he made $4.5 million. Kuroda made $12 million last season with the Dodgers and had a better season than Harang, but was it $7.5 million better?

Maybe not. But if Harang is replacing Kuroda instead of joining him, that might not be a great thing. Money seems to be the issue.

From Gurnick's article:

"'It's half and half. It's not only him, it's us,' Colletti said, making a vague reference to his ability to fit Kuroda's $12 million salary into a reduced budget."

Now, it hasn't been disclosed how much Kuroda is looking for on the market. He invoked his no-trade protection before the July 31 deadline. His desire to stay in Los Angeles is apparent. There are two questions here:

1. How much money does he want?
2. Does he want to return to Japan more than stay in L.A.?

If the Dodgers can get him for around $8 million -- the number that was first reported last winter -- that'd be a steal. Kuroda would be selling himself short, but $8 million isn't exactly chump change.

If he wants to return to Japan, it's hard to blame him. He's accomplished a lot in his brief Major League career.

Now, if the Dodgers could somehow nab both pitchers for $12 million total, that'd be a great get. It'd also allow Nathan Eovaldi to either pitch out of the bullpen or work on his off-speed offerings in the minor leagues.

We'll see what happens. I'm hoping Harang joins Kuroda. But if he is replacing him in the rotation, the rotation gets weaker. Then again, there are worse pitchers who could replace him (Chris Capuano and Jeff Francis -- both of whom have been linked with the Dodgers as recently as two days ago).

My 2011-12 Los Angeles Dodgers off-season plan

After all the off-season previews, we come to what I would do (or attempt to do) if I were the Dodgers' general manager. I am taking into account the money situation, so there won't be any Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols sightings in this post (unfortunately).

My plan is somewhat a rebuilding plan, but also a plan to succeed in 2012. With Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers have two of the best players at their position in the game. It'd be wise not to waste those years with total building.

There's nothing I can do about Juan Uribe and Matt Guerrier, but I'm going to do the best I can with those two still on the roster.

My plan

Priority No. 1 - Extend Matt Kemp
7 years, $140 million + two team options
13: $12M, 14: $16M, 15: $26M, 16: $24M, 17: $22M, 18: $20M,
19: $20M, 20: $20M ($4M buyout), 21: $20M ($4M buyout)
- This is the Dodgers' priority. Kemp is an unrestricted free agent after the 2012 season and is coming off a near-Triple Crown performance. He's 27 years old and is in the early stages of his prime. He's going to be worth every penny, even if he eventually moves from center field to right field.

Re-signings
RHP Hiroki Kuroda - 1 year, $9 million
- This one is a no-brainer, if he's willing to come back. Kuroda was solid in 2011 and could very well be the Dodgers' No. 2 starter next season.

RHP Vicente Padilla - 1 year, $2 million
- Bringing in Padilla last season as a "utility" pitcher was a smart move. It's too bad he didn't stay healthy. The Dodgers should give that option another shot.

OF/1B Juan Rivera - 1 year, $4 million (2013 option for $4 million or a $500,000 buyout)
- Before news of Rivera re-signing broke, I actually had him coming back at $4 million for one season. The reaction on the Interwebs was none too good, so perhaps I was channeling my inner Ned Colletti on this one.

Arbitration
OF Tony Gwynn
- Gwynn would be a nice No. 5 outfielder for the Dodgers, just as he was this season. He wouldn't cost a lot.

RHP Blake Hawksworth
- He threw some quality innings before a late-season collapse. He should definitely be brought back to be the long reliever in the Dodger 'pen.

LHP Clayton Kershaw
- Kershaw could set records in his first year of arbitration, and an extension for him should be forthcoming.

Trades
To Atlanta: OF Andre Ethier, 2B Ivan DeJesus
To Los Angeles: 2B Martin Prado, RHP J.J. Hoover
- The Dodgers have a big hole at second base and Prado is available for a big bat. Ethier could be the big bat the Braves are looking for and Prado would slide right in at 2B and in the No. 2 spot in the order. DeJesus is apparently not in the Dodgers' future plans. Hoover is a nice middle-of-the-rotation prospect or reliever.

To Florida: RHP Javy Guerra, RHP Allen Webster, OF Alfredo Silverio, RHP Steve Ames
To Los Angeles: 1B/OF Logan Morrison, RHP Chris Volstad
- This trade is modified from my post the other day about trade targets. This may seem like a lot to give up for a 24-year-old who hit .247, but he'd be well worth it. He'd immediately be the Dodgers' clean-up hitter and provide the best protection for Kemp. The Dodgers also nab a 25-year-old starter who's down on his luck after the last couple of years. He still has potential and is insurance for Nathan Eovaldi.

Trading Guerra at the height of his value is a smart thing. He'll likely be a solid reliever in the Majors, but he might not ever be as good as he was in 2011. I'm not as high on Silverio as others, but I am on Webster. The Marlins have also expressed interest in Fielder or Pujols -- albeit mild -- which could lead them to trading Morrison to improve the rest of the team. All three prospects are nearly Major-League ready.

Free agent signings
IF Wilson Betemit - 1 year, $2 million
- The former Brave, Dodger, Yankee, White Sox, Royal and Tiger returns to the Dodgers with the hopes he splits playing time with Juan Uribe at third base. He can also play first base and second base (in a pinch).

OF Grady Sizemore - 1 year, $6 million + option $9 million option ($1.5 million buyout) for 2013
- Despite people saying he could get close to $9 million, I don't think there's anyway he does. He's coming off three injury-plagued seasons and isn't the same player he once was. So why do I want him? Well, I've always been enamored with his abilities and think he could be a good risk/reward player. He'd basically be replacing Ethier as the Dodgers' left fielder. If he could get back to any part of his former self, this would be a steal for the Dodgers.

LHP Brian Tallet - 1 year, $650,000
- He's older and a lefty, which means he's in demand. The Dodgers need another lefty in the bullpen and not just a LOOGY, either. Tallet can go multiple innings, if needed.

Lineup (8)
Dee Gordon SS
Martin Prado 2B
Matt Kemp CF
Logan Morrison 1B
Jerry Sands RF
Grady Sizemore LF
Juan Uribe 3B
A.J. Ellis C

Rotation (5)
Clayton Kershaw LHP
Hiroki Kuroda RHP
Chad Billingsley RHP
Ted Lilly LHP
Nathan Eovaldi RHP

Bullpen (7)
Chris Volstad RHP
Blake Hawksworth RHP
Brian Tallet LHP
Matt Guerrier RHP
Josh Lindblom RHP
Scott Elbert LHP
Kenley Jansen RHP

Bench (5)
Wilson Betemit IF
Tim Federowicz C
Tony Gwynn OF
Juan Rivera OF/1B
Justin Sellers IF

So, there you have it. No Fielder. No Pujols. Yet, this team can be competitive. The minor-league depth takes a hit with the Morrison trade, but the Dodgers also get a young middle-of-the-order bat in return. They also lose Ethier but gain a second baseman capable of putting up an .800 OPS.

The pitching staff remains the same. I am a little worried about depth and considering the number of injuries the Dodgers had in 2011, it'll be interesting to see what they do to strengthen depth overall.

The Dodgers also have a lot of guys on the cusp of tasting the Majors, including Alex Castellanos, Jamie Hoffmann and Scott Van Slyke. Any of these guys could find themselves on the Dodgers' roster in 2012. The Dodgers also have some pitchers (Shawn Tolleson, Chris Withrow) and position players (Gorman Erickson, Kyle Russell) close to the Majors.

Chime in with your thoughts in the comments section or on Twitter.