Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 67 - Dodgers Digest, Kershaw, Figgins

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (Dodger Diamond) and I have special guest co-host Daniel Brim in for a visit.

Because it's awesome, Brim and I talk about Dodgers Digest and how it all came together.

The Clayton Kershaw contract extension was announced the day we posted the last episode, so the three of us give our hot take on.

Masahiro Tanaka signed with the Yankees for a ridiculous amount of money -- a price the Dodgers were obviously (and intelligently) unwilling to meet.

We also touch on A.J. Burnett, who became a topic of discussion on Tuesday after announcing he would pitch in 2014. The #BurnettWatch is on. While he'd be a nice addition to the Dodgers, it's unlikely he'd sign with them.

The Dodgers signed Chone Figgins, and we're all in consensus: He's going to make the opening day roster.

We get to the Q&A, which was solid this week. After that, we tease my interview with Jason Parks, which will be posted as episode 68 on Friday.

Episode dedications
Jared, Dusitn and Daniel: Jeff Kubenka

We'll probably continue to record every other week, or as news warrants (Tanaka signs), during the winter. But spring training is quickly approaching (yay!).

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Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@Dodger_Diamond or @FeelinKindaBlue). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Dodgers lose out on Masahiro Tanaka to the Yankees, which isn't a bad thing

News broke early this morning that the Dodgers were outbid for Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who signed a 7-year pact with the Yankees for $155 million. The $20 million dollar posting fee pushes the total to a whopping $175 million, which puts the Yankees over the $189 million luxury-tax mark for this season.

The deal includes an opt-out clause after the fourth year, along with a full no-trade clause.

The 25-year old went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA last season for the Rakuten Golden Eagles. The deal comes with a lot of risk for the Yankees, as Tanaka has yet to throw a pitch in the major leagues, but the Yankees must have felt confident in his ability to make the transition in order to make him the fifth-highest paid pitcher in MLB history.

The Yankees were much more desperate than the Dodgers for a front-of-the-rotation starter and the deal only makes Clayton Kershaw's 7-year, $215 million extension look even better.

The Dodgers reportedly made an offer of more $100 million for Tanaka, but were not going to break the bank for a pitcher who would slot in as the third- or fourth starter in the rotation.
 
Now, the Dodgers will look at much cheaper options for the back end of the rotation, such as free agent Bronson Arroyo. They may even again explore trading for Rays pitcher David Price, but that is doubtful to actually come to fruition. However, they certainly have the option of going into the season with the current staff that they have, which has Josh Beckett slotted in as the fifth starter, while Chad Billingsley continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.

Ultimately, Tanaka would have been a luxury for a Dodgers team that is already over the luxury tax threshold. With #TanakaWatch all wrapped up, General Manager Ned Colletti can now move on to filling the last remaining holes on the roster before the start of spring training.

Photo credit: Neier, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers could have statistical egde in Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes

Masahiro Tanaka reportedly has the choice of taking 6-year, $100-plus million contracts from the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Yankees, White Sox or Dodgers. The Diamondbacks might have gone to $120M and the Cubs might have gone to 7/$160M.

Tanaka has made some announcements about what he cares about beyond money.  He cares about pitching in a big market, winning now, being a legit star, a Japanese community in the city and being on the West Coast (which could be interpreted partly about being close to Japan, partly about being close to the entertainment industry for his wife). 

Out of that list, only the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will probably be any good next year (and with the Diamondbacks, Tanaka is actually what pushes them over the edge to probably being a playoff contender whereas the Dodgers are more robustly a good team and will still be so if a few things go wrong for them).

Only the Dodgers obviously are on the West Coast, although the Diamondbacks can be considered West-ish.  New York is a viable place to have an entertainment career obviously, as is Chicago.  Los Angeles has the largest Japanese population in the continental United States. New York has one-third the Japanese population of LA, and Chicago one-seventh. So, the Dodgers look pretty good here.

What about “being a star”?  Well, one way beyond being on a good team, making the playoffs, etc., that we can think about that statistically is via his traditional metrics.
 

What would his win-loss record and ERA be on each team? For each team, let’s think about the league (American League has designated hitter), park factor, quality of offensive support, defense and bullpen.

Team	Lg	Park Factor	Defense	Bullpen	Run Support	W	L	ERA
Dodgers	NL	0.95	Good	Good	4.5	16	10	3.50
Cubs	NL	1.04	Great	Bad	3.7	11	12	3.83
Yankees	AL	1.03	OK	Bad	4.2	12	11	3.99
D'Backs	NL	1.04	Good	OK	4.1	13	11	3.83
White Sox	AL	1.04	Bad	Bad	4.1	11	12	4.03

Behind the defense, bullpen and run support are actually my 2014 detailed projections. I’m still tweaking those a bit, but preliminarily, it works out something like the above. I thought about his winning percentage based on how league, park factor, defense and bullpen lead to each team's runs allowed in his starts vs. the team's run support level. I took his innings pitched per start down for the tougher environments and gave him less decisions for teams where the runs scored is close to the runs allowed.

If the money is even close, the rest of what the Dodgers’ situation offers completely dominates all his other options.

Photo credit: STB-1, Wikimedai Commons

Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw agree to 7-year, $215 million deal

There were indications this deal would get done soon, and now it is.

Ramona Shelburne of ESPN LA reported the Dodgers signed best pitcher in the galaxy Clayton Kershaw to a 7-year, $215 million contract. That works out to $30.7 million per season.

The total number and average annual value are the highest for a pitcher in MLB history. The AAV is the highest of any player in the game's history.

Shelburne reported there is an out clause in the contract after five years, which means Kershaw could be a free agent again going into his age-31 season. If he doesn't exercise it, he'd still be 33 years old the next time he's free agent-eligible.

This is the quick and dirty write-up of Kershaw's deal. I'll have a more in-depth post later and/or when more details become available.

That collective gust of wind was every concerns Dodger fan exhaling after the contract extension was reported. Breathe easy, Dodger fans.

Next up: Masahiro Tanaka.

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 66 - HOF, Puig, Tanaka, Stripling interview

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (Dodger Diamond) and I talk Hall of Fame (unfortunately), Alex Rodriguez (thanks, Jared) and, oh yeah, the Dodgers.

Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas were inducted to the Hall of Fame: good. Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza weren't: fail.

Next, Jared forces us to listen to more A-Rod talk. You can probably fast forward for a couple minutes if you want to avoid it.

We neglected to talk about Yasiel Puig's arrest not because we were condoning his actions or trying to give him a pass, but simply because we forgot.

Masahiro Tanaka and Clayton Kershaw were hot topics, and both could be long- and longer-term Dodgers in the not-too-distant-near-future.

Jared went to the Winter Development Program at Dodger Stadium and caught up with real friend of the show Ross Stripling. This is kid great.

Episode dedications
Jared: Yasiel Puig
Dustin: Norihiro Nakamura

Finally, we close with Q&A. The questions were good and plentiful. We love it, even if we couldn't understand a few of them.

We'll probably continue to record every other week, or as news warrants (Tanaka signs), during the winter.

Libsyn link
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Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@Dodger_Diamond or @FeelinKindaBlue). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Reports: Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw, getting close on 'record-breaking' deal

Well, it's about damn time. People can now (almost) stop panicking, as it seems the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw are going to come to a contract agreement sooner rather than later.

Ken Gurnick first reported Tuesday the two sides were discussing a deal that could be worth as much as $30 million over as many as 10 years. Now, that could be an 8-year, $240 million deal or a 10-year, $300 million deal -- or any combination thereof.

Ken Rosenthal reported Wednesday morning the Dodgers want to get this extension done quickly.

"The Dodgers, according to major league sources, want to sign Kershaw to a contract extension by Friday, when clubs must exchange contract proposals with players who filed for arbitration.

The deadline for “pre-exchange contracts” that day is 1 p.m. ET. The two sides are working to complete a deal before then, knowing that the difference between the Dodgers' offer and Kershaw’s request could be significant, sources said."

It's interesting the source thinks the arbitration numbers would be that different. But, it seems like this deal is going to get done.

There had been rumblings the two sides were -- quietly -- making progress on a deal, and it seems that was true.

The Dodgers couldn't let Kershaw reach free agency. He's going into his age-26 season, and would be the most attractive free agent since Alex Rodriguez. He's the unquestioned best pitcher in the game, and he's only now entering his prime (think about that for a minute).

I'm trying to temper my excitement, as the Dodgers and Kershaw have been close on an extension before. However, this situation is different. There's a sense of urgency to get this deal done., and it seems like it will be done soon.

Kershaw's agent is Casey Close, who also represents Zack Greinke and potential future Dodger Masahiro Tanaka. Close is going to be an extremely busy man for the next nine days, especially with this pending extension. I'll have a post either on Yahoo Sports later today or here tomorrow about how the Dodgers can afford both of them, and it has nothing to do with Mark Walter's money-printing machine.

It's happening, and once it's official, everything will be as it should.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Memo to Masahiro Tanaka: Happy wife, happy life -- choose the Dodgers

I'm getting married in July, and I already know the Golden Rule: Happy wife, happy life. I'm hoping Masahiro Tanaka subscribes to this rule.

We're 10 days away from the absolute last date Tanaka has to sign with a Major League team, and it seems the sweepstakes is down to the Yankees and Dodgers. The Yankees need him infinitely more than the Dodgers do. For the Dodgers, he'd be a luxury -- a fine luxury. But it seems his wife could be a factor in his decision.

Her name is Mai Satoda. I admittedly don't know anything about this woman, but her preference, reportedly, is to be on the West Coast -- more specifically, Los Angeles (sorry, Seattle). She's a pop star in Japan and presumably wants to be close to Hollywood so she can further her career.

It doesn't really matter where Tanaka goes. He's going to get paid either way. The Dodgers can probably offer him the most money, while the Yankees are desperate for quality starting pitchers. Money isn't the issue here.

No amount of money can account for a happy wife. If Tanaka is smart and wants to keep his wife happy, he'll choose Los Angeles.



When Hiroki Kuroda came over from Japan, one request he had was he wanted to wear No. 18. While Tim Federowicz wears the number in LA, I'm sure he'd have no problem giving it up (right, Tim?). In New York, Kuroda -- Tanaka's best comp -- wears No. 18. As silly as it sounds, that could make some kind of difference.

As a soon-to-be-married man who isn't about to make more money than I'll ever spend, the decision is easy for me, and I'm sure my Dodger fandom has nothing to do with this.

Then again, New York is New York. We'll see what happens. But if Tanaka's wife's preference has any bearing on his choice, I like the Dodgers' chances.

Photo credit: Tom Grieve, Wikimedia Commons

Reading between the lines regarding Dodgers' interest in Masahiro Tanaka

The plot thickens -- finally. It took a few months, but it seems the Dodger offseason might finally get interesting.

While the news isn't exactly concrete, it's more than we've really heard this winter so far. The Dodgers are officially interested in Masahiro Tanaka and may have already taken a meeting with the 25-year-old Japanese right-hander.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted out his bit of information on Friday:

The #Dodgers have let it be known they plan to go all-out in their efforts to sign Tanaka, saying they and certainly won't be out-bid.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) January 10, 2014

After, he clarified his tweet:

The #Dodgers, while confirming their interest in Tanaka, say they won't spend wildly on him, particularly with Kershaw about to hit FA
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) January 10, 2014

Pretty typical of reporters these days. However, I'm not discouraged by the tweets. I'm actually excited.

I don't think the Dodgers will go "all-out" on Tanaka, especially having not extended Clayton Kershaw and Hanley Ramirez yet. But I do think they'll put forth a substantial bid for his services, whilst still working to lock up Kershaw and Ramirez.

Mike Petriello (MSTI) and Mark Saxon (ESPN LA) both wrote articles on Friday downplaying the Nightengale tweets. Bill Shakin (LA Times) referred to the article he wrote on Dec. 9 about the situation, stating in a tweet the Dodgers' interest remains the same -- "lukewarm."

I completely understand where Petriello is coming from, and I agree, for the most part. Saxon is quoting Stan Kasten, a man famous for saying a lot of words without saying anything -- a talent that takes years to perfect (and a talent that is completely expected). Shakin's taking the same stance he reported a month ago. A lot has chanced since then.

This is really the first substantial word of the Dodgers' interest in Tanaka, and I'm rolling with it.

One has to wonder, why is there such contradictory information being strewn about the Dodgers and Tanaka?

The Dodgers have been relatively quiet this offseason, and not a lot of news has leaked of their interest in particular players. Ever since word of the potential Kershaw extension before last season, information has been relatively sparse coming out of the Dodgers' camp.

It seems they've made a conscious effort to play things close to the vest. So, when information like this comes out, it means something.

Since Nightengale's tweet, the Dodgers have, predictably, downplayed their interest in Tanaka. But if the Dodgers wanted to regain control of the situation, it makes sense that they'd feed certain information to local reporters like Saxon and Shakin. This is purely speculation.

There's also this tweet from the San Francisco Chronicle's John Shea:

I hear Masahiro Tanaka's three preferred spots going in are LA, NY and Boston, so five teams. #dodgers #angels #yankees #mets #redsox
— John Shea (@JohnSheaHey) January 10, 2014

Where there's smoke...

I acknowledge I could be a touch overzealous with this news, but with as quiet (and good) as the Dodgers' offseason has been, it seems a lot of this makes sense.

I really believe the Dodgers are interested in Tanaka, and have been all winter. They haven't made any big moves. They signed Dan Haren, which was good. They haven't traded for David Price -- something they could have done in November, if they really wanted to. They haven't, and not just because they want to keep the farm system in tact.

With the deadline for Tanaka to sign on the 24th (and make no mistake, he will sign), things should start heating up relatively soon. The Dodgers are in, and it's going to be a fun couple weeks.

Photo credit: Neier, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers could make splash by extending Kershaw, Ramirez, Mattingly

It appears the Dodgers aren't going to make any big moves this winter -- which is perfectly acceptable. They brought back a number of their most important free agents while adding Dan Haren to the mix.

They could still be in on Masahiro Tanaka, but that situation won't be resolved for another 18 days (at most). If they bring him aboard, he'll have been the biggest offseason acquisition. But the Dodgers can make an even bigger splash without having to bring anyone in.

Extensions. The Dodgers can sign three people to extensions during the rest of the winter that would cement their offseason as great.

Clayton Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez and Don Mattingly are all going into the last years of their respective deals. Of the trio, Kershaw is the most important person who should be extended.

Kershaw is going into his age-26 season as the best pitcher in baseball. The Dodgers cannot afford to have him reach free agency. Funny, with the Dodgers' seemingly unlimited budget, that's one thing they can't afford. An 8-year extension -- at minimum -- should be the starting point for contract talks.

There was scuttlebutt a few weeks ago the Dodgers might be getting close on an extension for Ramirez, but that has died down for the moment. Ramirez is coming off his best season -- rate stats-wise -- and could very well repeat his 2013 numbers. If he could do it while playing 130-140 games, he'd win the NL MVP. A 4-to-6-year extension isn't out of the question.

Mattingly was all but fired in June, then he all but resigned in October after the Dodgers' exit from the playoffs with a bold press conference in the presence of General Manager Ned Colletti. Now, he's slated to go into the 2014 season as a lame duck manager for the second consecutive season. The players obviously like playing for Mattingly, and he appears to like managing in Los Angeles. I'm just wondering where the disconnect is. Mattingly deserves a 2-year extension, as this team is primed to make a World Series run in 2014 and beyond.

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The Dodgers could assert their financial dominance even more than they already have by extending this trio. There's still roughly six weeks before pitchers and catchers report, so the time to get these done is now.

Even if they don't land Tanaka (or someone else), these moves could be the big ones some were expecting this offseason.

Photo credit: SD Dirk, Flickr

Dodgers' competition for Masahiro Tanaka appears to be strong

It finally happened. The Rakuten Golden Eagles posted right-hander Masahiro Tanaka on Christmas Eve, giving interested teams an early Christmas present.

Tanaka, 25, has been the best pitcher in Japan for the last several years. In 2013, he went 24-0 (I know, wins, but dayum!) with a 1.27 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and a 7.8 K/9. Those are really good numbers in any league. There figures to be many teams after Tanaka's services.

With the $20 million posting fee, which is now a "release" fee, meaning the Golden Eagles post him at $20 million and the team that signs him would have to pay that money in a release fee. Semantics.

Here are the teams I expect to be interested in Tanaka:

• All of them

Now, here are the team's I realistically expect to be interested in Tanaka:

• Angels
• Cubs
• Diamondbacks
• Dodgers
• Mariners
• Yankees

And the wild cards:

• Astros
• Giants
• Rangers

My prediction on Tanaka landing spots (in order)

1. Dodgers
2. Mariners
3. Yankees
4. Cubs
5. Astros
6. Angels
7. Diamondbacks
8. Giants
9. Rangers

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Dodgers: Well, I've written quite a bit about Tanaka, and while he'd be seen as a luxury by some, he's more of a necessity than a luxury to me. A top four of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tanaka (with Dan Haren as the No. 5) is unrivaled.

Mariners: Surprisingly, the Mariners rank ahead of the Yankees for me. Tanaka's preference, reportedly, is to play on the West Coast so his travels to Japan are easier. The M's spent nearly a quarter-billion dollars on Robinson Cano, so it'd be wise to surround him with some more talent. A rotation of Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Tanaka and Taijuan Walker would be amazingly good.

Yankees: They need Tanaka the most, but budget limitations could prevent them from going all-in on him. By others' calculations, the Yanks are about $11 million south of the $189 million luxury tax number. Seeing as they paid $28 million in luxury taxes for 2013, they seem to be intent on lowering their payroll to that number. However, the savings they'll get when Alex Rodriguez is suspended is a wild card for them. After CC Sabathia (who could be declining) and Hiroki Kuroda (who struggled in the second half), there isn't a sure thing in the rotation. Tanaka isn't a sure thing, but he's better than what the Yankees have behind Sabathia and Kuroda.

Cubs: The North Siders fail the criterion of being a West Coast team, but they have lots of money and team president Theo Epstein has a history of signing Japanese players. Oh, and the Cubbies need a starting pitcher. This team is closer to contending than some may think, as their farm system is loaded with position players. There is a noticeable lack of good pitching prospects, though.

Astros: They are the biggest wild card in all this. Houston isn't technically West Coast, but it's closer than Chicago or New York. The Astros had, roughly, a $15 million payroll in 2013 in their rebuilding process. Some had suggested they'd be in on Shin-Soo Choo, but he went to the other team in that state. They could swoop in and steal him from the New Yorks and LAs of the baseball world. In two years, their rotation could look like this: Mark Appel, Tanaka, Carlos Rodon (potential No. 1 pick in 2014 MLB Draft) and Lance McCullers. That's pretty good.

Angels: I didn't immediately identify the Angels as a suitor for Tanaka because they've whiffed badly on their last two huge signings (Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton). While they need pitching, Tanaka is going to cost a ton of money and it doesn't seem their budget is unlimited like, say, the Dodgers. But with Arte Moreno, anything is possible, I suppose.

Diamondbacks: Arizona has said Tanaka is its "No. 1 priority" this offseason -- well, aside from acquiring all of the grit. Tanaka is going to sign a nine-figure contract over six- or seven years. I'm not sure a commitment like that is in the Diamondbacks' nature.

Rangers: Before Choo signed for $130 million, the Rangers would have likely been in on Tanaka. Yu Darvish (and Tanaka isn't Darvish) has enjoyed great success in Texas and Tanaka would have made a nice pairing for the Rangers. But, it seems they'll be limited by their budget.

Giants: This one is just for show. The Giants are at the end of their budgetary commitment for 2014, so it doesn't seem like they'll be real players for Tanaka. San Francisco has a solid rotation already of Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson. While a couple of those guys are volatile, it isn't as if the Giants need Tanaka -- and they probably can't afford him anyway.

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This will all be resolved (in theory) by Jan. 24 -- that's when the posting time expires (30 days from day of posting date).

Tanaka's agent is Casey Close. He's a prominent agent with clients such as Kershaw, Greinke, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira. If there's any benefit to be had, it looks like it might lie with the Dodgers and Yankees.

Money talks. The Dodgers have the most money, but I don't think they'll pay more the $120(ish) million for Tanaka (not counting the release fee). The M's could be the Dodgers' biggest competitor, with the Yankees needing him more than any other team here. But seriously, watch out for the Astros. I just have a weird feeling about them.

Photo credit: Neier, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers, Chris Perez, close to 1-year contract, according to report

Ned Colletti appears to have finally settled on his "high-leverage" reliever with closing experience, as the Dodgers are reportedly close to signing former Indians' closer Chris Perez to a 1-year contract.

Terms aren't yet known, but it'd be a shock if Perez got more than a $4 million contract. He was set to go into his last year of arbitration after earning $7.3 million in 2013. The Indians (wisely) decided to non-tender the burly right-hander.

Perez, 28, is best known for his antics off the field. In August 2012, he confronted an Athletics' fan and had some choice words for said fan. He attempted to mail some marijuana to his home using his dog's name. Seriously.

Oh, and he's not a very good reliever. Well, he used to be, but he was pretty bad in 2013. Perez posted a 4.33 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.3 H/9, 1.8 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 9.0 K/9. And his ERA didn't exactly jive with his 5.08 FIP. He was worth nearly a negative win in 2013 (-0.9). That's pretty hard to do out of the bullpen.

Perez's biggest bugaboo is his propensity for giving home runs. He owns a 1.1 HR/9 for his career, and gave up 11 in 54 innings this past season. His home run-to-flyball rate was an astronomical 20 percent (meaning, for every 100 fly balls he were to give up, 20 of them would over the fence). Dodger Stadium should help him with that problem, but he'll need to keep the ball down to be an effective reliever.

Barring anything unforeseen, Perez is likely slated for seventh-inning duty for the Dodgers.

His repertoire consists of a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a low-80s slider. He threw a curveball sparingly in his first two seasons, but he's been a two-pitch pitcher ever since. FanGraphs rated Perez's fastball at -15.4 last season -- the worst among all MLB relievers with at least 50 innings pitched.

Perez was good in 2010, posting a 1.71 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 63 innings at the age of 24 (despite a 4.0 BB/9). So, there's a chance he could recapture some of what made him an effective reliever just a few years ago.

The move likely means Jose Dominguez will begin the 2014 season in the minors (likely in Albuquerque). Chris Withrow is also a candidate of beginning the season in the minors, if the Dodgers need the active roster space -- but it'd be a mistake. If Perez is replacing, say, Brandon League, I say it's an upgrade. If he's replacing Withrow, it's a big, big mistake.

The Dodgers' 40-man roster is officially at 37, but when the signings of J.P. Howell and Juan Uribe become official, that number will go to 39. The Dodgers still need a couple bench pieces and could be in on Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka. The Dodgers will almost assuredly place Chad Billingsley on the 60-day disabled list at some point, so that could also open up another spot. Otherwwise, I wouldn't get too comfortable if I'm Mike Baxter, Justin Sellers and, to a lesser extent, Javy Guerra.

Photo credit: Keith Allison, Wikimedia Commons

Zach Lee should be the Dodgers' No. 5 starter in 2014 if no Tanaka, Price

It's Dec. 20, and the Dodgers still haven't acquired a big-name starting pitcher. It isn't necessarily a huge need, but it'd be nice to have one more big arm in the rotation.

The Dan Haren signing was really good, but I envision him as the team's No. 5 starter rather than its No. 4. But there's a very real scenario in which he's the No. 4 starter, and that isn't the worst thing in the world.

The market has been quiet. David Price rumors abound, and I'm not as opposed to him as I was earlier this offseason (or as others, including the Dodgers, it seems). Masahiro Tanaka may or may not be posted (somewhat reminiscent of the Alexander Guerrero situation). 

Obviously, Tanaka would be the preference. He's younger than Price and wouldn't cost prospects. Price would cost prospects and a length contract extension. With the Dodgers still needing to lock up Clayton Kershaw (hurry up already!) and Hanley Ramirez (could be soon), a Price extension might be No. 3 on the "To Do" list.

Some have suggested Price would be an insurance policy in case Kershaw -- somehow -- decides to leave via free agency. After all, he's "curious" about the prospect, and who could blame him?

If the Dodgers don't acquire Tanaka or Price, it's unlikely the Dodgers would sign a free agent. Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana both have draft pick compensation tied to them, while the team has shown little-to-no-interest in Matt Garza. Aside from that trio, there isn't really any starter worth signing.

Josh Beckett would be the No. 5 starter if the season were to start today. But let's be honest: No one wants to watch Beckett pitch anymore.

He's probably done, but he's also due nearly $16 million in 2014. There might be the obligation to pitch him -- and the Dodgers probably will -- but they should spare us the inevitable mound meltdown by Beckett. He had one good start in 2013 and was surprisingly solid for the Dodgers in 2012. But, as Daniel Brim laid out today on his blog (seriously, check it out), the history of those who attempt to come back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery don't tend to have much success.

My alternative: Zach Lee.

Lee, 22, is pretty much MLB-ready and, if he isn't traded, he should be given serious consideration for the No. 5 spot in the rotation. He enjoyed his best season to date in the Southern League, posting a 3.22 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 2.2 BB/9 and a 8.3 K/9. All of those numbers were career-bests for the Dodgers' 2010 first-round pick. He's getting better every year he pitches.

If he begins the season in the minors, the Dodgers could conceivably send him to Albuquerque, as they did with Matt Magill last season. Almost everyone knows the Pacific Coast League is none too friendly to pitchers, and the Dodgers tend to avoid sending their top starter prospects there. However, if Lee went back to Chattanooga, it'd be his third stint with the Lookouts. He doesn't have much more to prove.

His stuff ticked up slightly in 2013, and he definitely has a future as a starting pitcher. He won't be a No. 1 or No. 2, but I see him as a low-end No. 3 or high-end No. 4 at worse. Plus, it'd be nice to see the Dodgers give a youngster a shot. They haven't really done so since Kershaw and Chad Billingsley (through no fault of their own).

If I'm Lee, I'd attach myself to Zack Greinke's hip in spring training and absorb everything the cerebral starter has to offer.

The Dodgers appear committed to keeping the farm system in tact. If they want to see what Lee's true worth is, this might be the time to find out. If the truly want to model their farm system and development after the Cardinals, this would be a fine time to start.

As for what to do with Beckett: I'm not sure. Make him the long reliever? Eat almost all his contract to trade him? Designate him for assignment? All of them seem like viable options. Honestly, I don't particularly care. I want the best 25 guys out there, and Lee profiles to be better than Beckett is right now. Beckett won't make-or-break the Dodgers' season.

I really hope the Dodgers land Tanaka. I'd be OK with them landing Price. If they must include Corey Seager to land Price, then I'd like to see them sign Aledmys Diaz to replace him (that's pretty much the only scenario in which that is acceptable, but it still isn't preferred). If those two options fall through, Lee is my guy. And I've been higher on Lee than most in the last couple of years (even if he won't be my No. 1 prospect for 2014).

One way or another, I'd rather not see Beckett throw another pitch as a starter for the Dodgers again. It's nothing personal, it's just the fact that Lee is the better option.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

David Price to the Dodgers: Talking myself into the idea of acquiring him

All this winter, I've been pining for Masahiro Tanaka. He's the guy I really want the Dodgers to sign. Yet here we are on Dec. 12, and Tanaka has yet to be posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Nippon Professional Baseball league.

It's not entire the NPB's fault, as it has been a long road negotiating a new posting system with MLB. But the president of the league doesn't want the Golden Eagles to post Tanaka and the new $20 million maximum bid might not be enough to satisfy them.

At this rate, I'm about ready to move on from Tanaka (though, the Diamondbacks' reported interest makes me reconsider) and onto Rays' ace David Price.

If you've ever read this blog, you know I'm a prospect hoarder. I'm not one for advocating for gutting the farm system -- and that wouldn't need to happen here. But, if the Dodgers (and myself) want the team to acquire Price, they'll have to give up some good prospects. But more on that later.

After the Mariners signed Robinson Cano on Friday, I was all but certain Price would end up in Seattle.

The #Rays now only have to face Cano six times a year and should get Taijuan Walker for Price. They're the real winners in this. #Mariners
— Dustin Nosler (@FeelinKindaBlue) December 6, 2013

But, the Mariners seem really resistant to trading Taijuan Walker (hard to blame them), so they're seemingly out on Price. The Diamondbacks would likely have to include Archie Bradley, something a team with a thin farm system might be hesitant to do. The Rangers don't appear to be all that interested, either.

That basically leaves the Dodgers.While the Rays don't have to trade Price right now, it seems if they want to  move him before the start of the season, it's going to be to LA.

Daniel Brim had an excellent post on why the Dodgers should steer clear of Price. It give me pause, but I'm not as concerned as he is with Price's performance going forward.

"The above graph from Brooks Baseball shows Price’s pitch velocity month-by-month since 2010. Other than some minor differences (Price phased out his slider completely after 2010), the only year that sticks out is 2013. After averaging 96.55mph in 2012, his fastball velocity dropped all the way to 94.27mph this year. His sinker (which he throws more than any other pitch) dropped from 96.23mph to 94.24mph. While the velocity came back a little bit after returning from the DL, it never really got back up to his career levels and began to tail off again at the end of the year."

While the decreased velocity is concerning (really, look at that top-right corner -- it's a little scary), Price still throws his fastball with the 11th-highest velocity of any pitcher in baseball. Whether he suffered from dead arm, had a mechanical flaw or just flat-out threw his fastball slower in 2013 remains to be seen. But Price has never been a big-time strikeout pitcher.

His career-high in strikeouts per nine innings is 8.7, established in 2011 and 2012. Prior to 2013, it was 8.3 per nine. In 2013, it was 7.3 -- still a respectable number, but obviously not ideal.

Coupled with Price's decreased velocity and decreased whiff rate came a reduced walk rate. While he's never been one to walk a ton of hitters, he took it to a new level in 2013. From 2008-12, he walked 3.0 batters per nine innings. By comparison, Clayton Kershaw walked 3.3 per nine in that same time. Price's walk rate was 1.3 per nine innings in 2013. That's Cliff Lee territory.

Price's groundball rate decreased from 2012 (53.1 percent) to 2013 (44.9), but his HR/FB rate also fell (10.5 to 8.6).

Predictably, Price became a little more hittable in 2013. His hits per nine inning increased by more than one, but his WHIP dropped by .01 points. If the object of pitching is to limit the number of baserunners, Price was better at that in 2013 than he was in 2012.

Brim makes another cogent point -- something I hope A.J. Ellis and Tim Federowicz can work on in 2014.

"Then there’s the factors that are beyond Price’s control. This Sky Kalkman piece goes into some of these factors. While the Dodger Stadium and Tropicana field are similarly pitcher-friendly, the defensive differences between the Dodgers and Rays are interesting. The Dodgers have a higher Defensive Runs Saved, while the Rays have a higher team Ultimate Zone Rating. However, the Dodgers do not save as many runs by using defensive shifts as the Rays do (source).

Additionally, he notes that the Rays have a pretty significant advantage in pitch framing. The Rays’ two primary catchers last year were Jose Molina and Jose Lobaton. According to statcorner.com (the only place where I could find a readily available source of framing statistics), Jose Molina had 18.1 framing runs above average and Jose Lobaton had 0.3 framing runs above average in 2013. The Dodgers’ primary catchers, A.J. Ellis and Tim Federowicz, had -7.4 and -3.9 framing runs above average, respectively. Research into the value of pitch framing is still relatively new, and the magnitude of the impact is still not fully known. But David Price gained some statistical advantage from Jose Molina’s pitch framing that the Dodgers’ backstops cannot match."

If Price benefited from framing that much, then it could be an issue for the Dodgers or whichever team acquires him -- if they don't have a catcher who excels at framing.

So, what would it take to acquire the one of the best pitchers in baseball? A lot.

In a matchup of Andrew Friedman (Rays' GM) and Colletti, the easy money is on Friedman. However, Colletti (and co.) has proved himself somewhat capable since Guggenheim and guys took over.

First, I'd remove Corey Seager from the table. Period. Not because he's too young to sit at the adult's table, but because I'm not ready to part ways with him. If the Dodgers had another third baseman or shortstop -- in the majors or minors -- I'd be much more willing to part with him. The fact is, third base has been a massive black hole since the days of Ron Cey (despite some nice tenures from Adrian Beltre and Casey Blake). Seager is the team's future at the position -- a position that's becoming harder and harder to fill, it seems. I mean, Juan Uribe is the best free agent third baseman on the market. That really says something.

I'd also be hesitant to include Julio Urias in the deal if for no other reason that we've yet to see enough of the 17-year-old. He could be the next Johan Santana or the next Brien Taylor. Moving him would be a tough decision for the Dodgers to make.

Joc Pederson would be the headliner for me. He was ranked as the Dodgers' top prospect by Baseball America and is a Top 30-40 prospect in baseball. Yes, the Rays got Wil Myers for James Shields last year, but what happened last year shouldn't have much bearing on Price-to-LA trade talks. It's not the Dodgers' fault the Royals overpaid a bit.

Zach Lee would also head Tampa's way, giving the Rays a quality starter who's close to the majors. Lee is underrated by most (in my eyes) and could reach the Tampa rotation in 2014. I'd also throw in Chris Reed because, despite a solid season in Double-A, I'm still not terribly high on the former first-rounder from Stanford.

Finally, I'd include Jose Dominguez. The Rays might want Chris Withrow, but I'd feel more comfortable sending Dominguez, whose fastball is second to only Bruce Rondon's in the majors.

Proposal
To Tampa Bay: Pederson, Lee, Reed, Dominguez
To LA: Price
Note: That's three Top-8 prospects, plus one just on the outside. Not a bad haul for Tampa.

Alternative proposals
To Tampa Bay: Urias, Pederson, Reed, Dominguez
To Los Angeles: Price, Taylor Guerrieri
Note: I'm aware he's out for 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and he's facing a 50-game performance-enhancing drug suspension, but he still has a ton of talent and I liked him in the 2011 draft.

To Tampa Bay: Nick Franklin, Urias, Reed, Dominguez
To Los Angeles: Price
Note: Franklin would come over from Seattle in an Andre Ethier trade.

To Tampa Bay: Urias, Lee, Reed
To Los Angeles: Price

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I don't know if I'm even in the ballpark (probably not), but I think Price could be had without having to give up both Seager and Urias (or either of them). If they absolutely must include one of them, I'd easily send Urias before Seager. Easily.

Price is really good, but he's not on the level of a Kershaw. While their situations are a little different, I'd expect much more in a Kershaw trade than a Price trade.

And before you say "That's too much to give up for Price," just remember -- the Dodger rotation would look like this:

Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
David Price
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Dan Haren

Best. In. Baseball. I'd rather have Tanaka because he wouldn't cost anything in trade, but Price would be a fantastic consolation prize.

Photo credit: Wknight94, Wikimedia Commons