Dodgers' Rob Rasmussen establishes himself as legitimate pitching prospect

John Ely burst onto the scene with the Dodgers in 2010. The team had acquired him and Jon Link from the White Sox for Juan Pierre. Elymania spawned and lasted for longer than anyone could have expected. But it ended seemingly as quickly as it began.

Fast forward nearly three years. Ely was coming off of a masterful performance in the Pacific Coast League in 2012. He was named the Dodgers’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year, an honor I never would have thought would go to a guy pitching half his games in Albuquerque. His performance, while great, wasn’t enough to keep him around. The Dodgers traded him to the Houston Astros for left-handed pitcher and Southern California native and former Dodger draftee Rob Rasmussen.

Rasmussen, 24, is making a mark of his own, as he’s been the Chattanooga Lookouts’ second-best pitcher (behind Zach Lee) this season.

Not a physically imposing pitcher, Rasmussen has a 3.12 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.27 FIP, 7.1 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9 and an 8.7 K/9 in eight starts with the Lookouts this season. That’s actually a really good line for a guy who had just 11 appearances in Double-A before this season.

Rasmussen has never been a big strikeout pitcher, averaging 7.3 per nine innings coming into the season. But Rasmussen has raised his rate by nearly 1.5 K/9 pitching in one of the more advanced leagues in the minors. That’s impressive. He’s also reduced his walk rate while also reducing his hits per nine innings rate. That’s a recipe for success.

Rasmussen is listed at 5’9, and that might be generous. Short pitchers don’t usually last in the rotation, and they usually do if they have elite arms (see: Martinez, Pedro). But Rasmussen is proving he’s more than just a future reliever.

He’s averaged 145 innings pitched in his first two full seasons. He’s on pace to best that this season. However, he’s only throwing 5.4 innings per start. He’ll need to increase that number going forward.

Being left-handed is an advantage for Rasmussen, as his stuff isn’t elite. He throws in the 89-92 MPH range that plays up due to his being left-handed. His two breaking balls are similarly matched. His curveball has a chance to be solid-average while his slider flashes plus potential. He also has a fringy changeup. Obviously, it’s all working for him in the Southern League so far.

Here’s what I wrote about Rasmussen (No. 22) in my preseason Dodgers’ Top 50 prospects list.

Rasmussen was acquired in December for John Ely, a net gain for the Dodgers and their farm system. Rasmussen was drafted in the 27th round of the 2007 draft by the Dodgers. He didn't sign and ended up attending UCLA. The Astros popped him in the second round of the 2010 draft and was traded in July for Carlos Lee. Despite being a small pitcher, he's started 53 of 60 career games in the minors. He reached Double-A Corpus Christi, where he didn't fare particularly well (4.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.07 FIP). Rasmussen has a four-pitch arsenal, featuring an 89-92 MPH fastball that touches 94, a slider that flashes plus potential, and a potentially average changeup and curveball. Like many lefties, he throws from a three-quarters arm angle. He also has a compact delivery. While he's likely destined for bullpen duty, there's no reason to pull Rasmussen from the rotation until he proves he can't handle it. He's definitely the exception, not the rule, when it comes to being big-bodied starting pitchers.

If he keeps it up, Rasmussen could be a much more significant prospect than many thought he was before – and after – the Dodgers signed. He’s teaming with Lee to form a nice 1-2 punch for the Lookouts as Chris Reed and Andres Santiago are struggling and Onelki Garcia is on the disabled list (and he wasn’t pitching well anyway).

The Dodgers went from Pierre to Ely (who is out after having Tommy John surgery) to Rasmussen. I’d say that’s a win for the Dodgers and Ned Colletti. The latter part of that sentence is something that is the exception, not the rule.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 16 - Dodgers, Rasmussen, Puig, Mattingly

On this, the final 2012 episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (L.A. Dugout) and I talk about the "big" trade that sent John Ely to Houston for Rob Rasmussen. We both like the deal.

We also answer some reader questions, which were excellent this week. Will Brian Wilson (yes, that Brian Wilson) end up with the Dodgers? What's up with Alex Castellanos? Will we see Yasiel Puig in September? And this one is the most compelling: Is this a make-or-break season for Don Mattingly? I'm going to go more into depth on that in a post.

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Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@LADugout or @FeelinKindaBlue). We always welcome audience participation.

Thank you for listening. Massey and I are shooting for a more consistent podcast going forward. We appreciate the support. If there's something we could improve upon or change up, we're always welcome to suggestions.

Thanks, and have a great New Year. Go Blue

Image credit: Joe Martin

Dodgers send John Ely to Astros for Rob Rasmussen, and it's a good deal

Not the trade some were expecting, but a trade nonetheless. The Dodgers sent John Ely, the perpetrator of "Elymania" a few years ago to Houston for left-handed pitcher Rob Rasmussen.

With the Dodgers signing Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, while also shopping starters Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang, Ely was about 15th on the starting pitcher depth chart. It's nice he's going to get a chance somewhere else, as the Astros are coming off a 107-loss season and can use help in the rotation.

Then again, Ely hasn't done much since he fast start, as Eric Stephen aptly pointed out on Twitter.

"After starting his major league career with a 2.54 ERA with 37 K / 8 BB in 46 IP, John Ely's last 18 apps: 1-11, 62 runs in 69.1 IP"

So, there's that. Ely is probably Four-A roster fodder at this point, but it's still a worthwhile risk for Houston.

Rasmussen, 23, is a wee man, listed at 5'9, 160 pounds. Surprisingly, he's been a starting pitcher in his minor-league career (60 games, 53 starts).

Rasmussen was drafted in the second round of the 2010 MLB Draft by the Marlins. Prior to that, he was drafted by the Dodgers in the 27th round of the 2007 draft, but he didn't sign and ended up attending UCLA. He was dealt from the Marlins to the Astros (along with another local boy -- Matt Dominguez) to get Carlos Lee last season.

His peripherals aren't exactly great, but he's left-handed and has a pulse, so he has some value. He generally keeps the ball in the park (0.7 HR/9) and gets a decent amount of strikeouts (7.3 K/9), but his 3.8 BB/9 needs some work. It's not that bad, but it doesn't tell the whole story.

Baseball America ranked him No. 7 in the Miami system prior to the 2012 season. FanGraphs ranked him No. 15 in the Astros' stacked system and Minor League Ball gave him a "C+" grade, but not a Top-20 ranking this winter.

From FanGraphs:

"A scout I spoke to about the former UCLA pitcher sees a big league role in his future. 'I think he'll be able to get people out at the big league level but he's got to get the ball down,' he said. 'He's up to 94 (MPH) with two breaking balls. The little dude works his tail off.' Two concerns brought up were his lack of deception, as well as his command/control issues – although he has few red flags in his delivery."

From Minor League Ball:

"Rasmussen was drafted in the second round in 2010, out of UCLA. He is pitching in the High-A Florida State League this year at age 23, posting a 3.90 ERA with a 75/36 K/BB in 88 innings with 83 hits allowed. Rasmussen is undersized at 5-9, 160, but he has good arm strength and works in the low-90s, mixing in a curve, slider, and changeup. Rasmussen threw strikes in college but has had mixed results as a pro, and has not dominated the lower levels of the farm system. He could be a fifth starter but is more probably a reliever in the long run."

Control seems to be Rasmussen's biggest issue -- and rightfully so. His fastball sits in the 89-92 MPH range. He also has a potentially plus-slider and potentially an average curveball and changeup. He has the classic four-pitch arsenal and, coming from the left side, makes it a little bit better.

Being able to control and command the pitches are going to be what determines his future -- as well as his build. There aren't many sub-6-foot starting pitchers in the game, which is why many are projecting him as a reliever. I say, let him stay in the rotation until he proves he can't handle it.

Rasmussen threw 54 1/3 innings in Double-A last season and I could see him beginning the season in Double-A with a midseason promotion to Triple-A, if warranted.

Oh, and there's really nothing to not like about the trade.

Photo credit: Brhirschmann, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers designate Scott Van Slyke for assignment, but could still trade him

In a somewhat surprising move, the Dodgers on Wednesday designated Scott Van Slyke for assignment to make room for the newly acquired Skip Schumaker.

The Dodgers had a few options from which to choose -- Justin Sellers, John Ely, Stephen Fife and Juan Uribe -- but they decided to ditch Van Slyke.

The most obvious choice would have been Sellers, as he was coming off surgery and doesn't have much of a future in the majors. The guy the Dodgers traded to get Schumaker -- Jake Lemmerman -- probably has more of a future in the majors. But the Dodgers sure do love themselves some middle infielders.

Ely and Fife would have gone because the Dodgers have eleventy-billion starting pitchers now. They're more serviceable than Sellers, but it wouldn't have been a surprise to see them go.

And of course there's Uribe, but it seems the Dodgers just can't bring themselves to do the right thing.

Something else to consider is the Dodgers could still trade Van Slyke. He's on waivers and could be claimed by a team. If he is, the Dodgers and the claiming team could work out a deal. The Dodgers could also just let him go without a trade.

The Dodgers should package Van Slyke with Chris Capuano to get Joel Hanrahan from the Pirates.

From John Perrotto of USA Today:

"Am told #Pirates would want a second player in addition to Chris Capuano if they were to trade Joel Hanrahan to #Dodgers. Don't know who."

It makes a lot of sense.

The Dodgers did take an unusually long time to announce the roster move after Schumaker was officially added, so one could assume they were discussing some sort of other transaction. If all it takes is a 26-year-old likely Four-A player to pair with Capuano to get a guy like Hanrahan, I'm all for it.

Photo credit: EephusBlue, Twitter

Two Dodgers' draftees make Pioneer League's best prospects list

Dodgers' 2012 first-round pick Corey Seager on Thursday was named the fourth-best prospect in the Pioneer League by Baseball America.

Seager had a nice showing in the league after a somewhat slow start. He posted a .304/.383/.520 triple slash with eight home runs, nine doubles, a surprising eight stolen bases and a 10.4 percent walk rate.

The 18-year-old played shortstop in 44 of his 46 games (two games as the designated hitter), but struggled defensively, as he committed 17 errors. The Dodgers could give him one more shot at shortstop, but he's the team's future at third base.

Joining him in the Top 20 was fifth-round pick Ross Stripling. Because he pitched a lot of innings for Texas A&M prior to being drafted, his innings were limited in his debit. He made 14 appearances (12 starts) and threw just 36 1/3 innings.

But Stripling showed the ability to get strikeouts (9.5 K/9) while not walking hitters (1.5 BB/9). That's always good to see, especially in a hitters' league.

He doesn't have elite stuff, but Stripling has a good feel for pitching early in his career.

I was a little surprised to see the 22-year-old on the list, but I was even more surprised not to see another 22-year-old on the list.

Jeremy Rathjen, the Dodgers' 11th-round pick, posted better numbers than Seager (despite being four years older), but didn't make it.

Rathjen had a .323/443/.500 triple slash with nine home runs, 17 doubles, 16 stolen bases and a 14.8 percent walk rate.

The Corey Hart clone fell to the 11th round because of a knee injury. Otherwise, he easily would have been a Top-10 round selection. He's definitely a sleeper in the organization and it will be interesting to see him in full-season ball.

I also thought shortstop Darnell Sweeney was possibly an omission. The 13th-rounder wasn't expected to hit much when he was drafted, but he's adjusted quite well to professional ball. He could be a big mover next season, as he's already reached Low-A and could conceivably reach Double-A with a fantastic 2013.

There's a reason Assistant General Manager Logan White is excited about the Dodgers' 2012 draft class. I'm not as excited, but its definitely growing on me. I need to see the prospects at the higher levels of the minors, but so far, so good.

Pederson and Ely earn top honors

Outfield prospect Joc Pederson and pitcher John Ely were named the Dodgers' Minor League Players of the Year on Thursday.

As you'll recall, I also named Pederson my player of the year last week. But I think I overlooked Ely, who had a fantastic year with Albuquerque. I focused on prospects, which is why I went with Matt Magill as the pitcher of the year. Despite the oversight, I stand by my selection.

But congratulations to Pederson and Ely. They both had amazing years.

Photo credit: Courtesy of Perfect Game

Chad Billingsley's elbow MRI could impact John Ely and Ryan Dempster

News broke this morning that Dodgers' starting pitcher Chad Billingsley was scratched from his start because of an "undisclosed injury."

Undisclosed injury progressed to elbow tenderness which progressed to him needing an MRI.

Oh boy. Elbow MRIs are never a good thing. Even if it isn't the worst (torn ulnar collateral ligament), he'll probably need a disabled list stint.

Reports are Billingsley felt the pain for the last few starts, but thought it was just normal soreness. He told Manager Don Mattingly about it yesterday (something Mattingly wasn't happy about), leading to today's scratch.

It's hard to know how long Billingsley's been hurting. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent in his last five starts.

Date       Avg       Max
6/16       91.5       93.7
6/22       92.4       94.5
6/27       91.5       93.0
7/2         92.3       93.8
7/7         91.4       92.6

So, we'll see what happens with the results of the MRI. I'm not optimistic.

That means we could see John Ely quite soon. The 26-year-old is having a stellar season for the Isotopes in the Pacific Coast League: 3.22 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9 and a 3.29 FIP.

If anyone in the minors deserves a shot this season, it's Ely. His turnaround has been remarkable considering he struggled mightily in Albuquerque last season: 6.11 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 4.78 FIP).

It also means we could see a trade sooner rather than later. It's 16 days to the trade deadline and the Dodgers have been linked to Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and Cole Hamels. The Dodgers have scouts watching both teams.

I wrote about Dempster and Garza last month, but I've yet to write about Hamels. Apparently, the Dodgers have a deal on the table for Dempster that includes two pitching prospects. Some speculated (myself included) about who the pitching prospects might be. Garrett Gould, since he was on the table for Carlos Lee, is likely to be one of them. It's anyone's guess who else it could be, but the names Chris Withrow and Aaron Miller came up.

We'll see what happens with the MRI and the potential trade, but I'd bet a lot of money that Dempster will be in Dodger Blue within the next 10 days.

Photo credits

Billingsley: SD Dirk, Flickr

Dempster: mootown, Flickr

Dodgers have interest in Cubs' RHPs Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster

I wasn't intending to write a post about the Dodgers' interest in Ryan Dempster, but it goes hand-in-hand with the Dodgers' reported interest in Matt Garza.

Nathan Eovaldi has filled in admirably in the absence of Ted Lilly. There's no timetable for his return.

Everyone behind Clayton Kershaw is no better than a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, but are guys like Garza and Dempster that much better than who the Dodgers have right now?

If the Dodgers are going to their resources to acquire talent, they should at least focus on acquiring some offense before another pitcher.

Matt Garza

Garza, 28, is one of the more underrated pitchers in the National League and is a free agent after the 2013 season. He's making $9.5 million this season and gets innings pitched bonuses for 210 ($50,000) and 220 innings ($100,000), meaning he could make as much as $9.65 million this season.

He's never thrown more than 204 2/3 innings in a season (2010) and he's on pace for just 190 this season (assuming 32 games started).

Despite a higher ERA in 2012 (4.04 so far) than 2011 (3.32), some of his peripherals are better than last year's.

His H/9 is down from 8.5 last year to 7.4 this year. His WHIP is down from 1.26 last year (1.30 for his career entering 2012) to 1.12 this season. His BB/9, K/9 and K/BB are pretty close to last year's marks.

Garza boasts a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a low-to-mid-80s slider, a curveball and a changeup. But his best pitch is the fastball. However, he isn't throwing it nearly as much in the National League as he did in the American League.

Last season, he threw the fastball just 53.4 percent of the time (93.7 MPH). This season, he's throwing it 60.1 percent of the time (93.4 MPH). His last three seasons in Tampa Bay (2008-10), he threw it 72.2, 71.1 and 71.5 percent of the time.

I'm a proponent of pitchers using their fastball liberally, especially a fastball like Garza's. Then again, he did have one of the best seasons of his career in 2011, so who knows?

Garza will cost significantly more in prospects/young players than Dempster would, but acquiring him without signing him to a long-term deal wouldn't be a great move by the Dodgers. They'd be getting him for the rest of 2012 and 2013 at the minimum. His salary for 2013 would probably be in the neighborhood of $12-13 million.

There are definitely risks in trying to acquire Garza. The Cubs are going to want a lot in return and the Dodgers are going to have to shell out some cash to keep him around. A positive: It appears the Dodgers can offer him arbitration after the 2013 season. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement prohibits offering arbitration to players who will be free agents the following winter ... like our next pitcher.

Ryan Dempster

Dempster, on the other hand, probably wouldn't cost as much in terms of prospects, but he comes with a higher monetary price tag.

Dempster is making $14 million this season and, at age 35, will be a free agent after the season. He's having a great season so far: 2.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 3.00 K/BB and will probably be headed to Kansas City for the All-Star Game.

He has reinvented himself in his 30s, going from a hard-throwing fastball/slider guy with a lot of walks to a guy with good control and knows how to pitch.

• Age 21-30: 4.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9
• Age 31-35: 3.3 BB/9, 8.2 K/9

That's an impressive and somewhat drastic change for a guy to make heading into his age-31 season (his best to date).

Dempster's fastball averages 89.4 MPH this season after sitting at 90.3 MPH last season. He's throwing his slider 9 percent more often this season than last -- not unexpected from an aging pitcher. He also has quality split-finger fastball.

He'd be a nice acquisition, if the Dodgers really feel they need another starter.

What would it take to get them?

Note: The Dodgers could potentially use a guy like Bryan LaHair, but I'm going to leave him out of these proposals.

This is what I'd give up to get either one.

To Chicago: Jerry Sands, Angel Sanchez, Shawn Tolleson, Allen Webster
To Los Angeles: Garza

It might seem like a lot, but Garza would be in Dodger Blue for more than a year. The Cubs get a guy who can step into right field (moving David DeJesus to center field), one of the Dodgers' best pitching prospects in Webster, their best relief prospect in Tolleson and a young guy with potential in Sanchez.

The Cubs absolutely stacked in the minor leagues on offense with guys like Javier Baez, Brett Jackson, the recently signed Jorge Soler and the recently drafted Albert Almora, so they're probably more in the market for pitching prospects.

To Chicago: Steve Ames, John Ely, Sanchez
To Los Angeles: Dempster, cash ($2 million)

This one might be a little more realistic. Dempster isn't going to cost a ton and would likely be a rental. The Dodgers have their sights set on Cole Hamels this winter and have guys like Chris Capuano and Harang locked up through 2013. The Cubs get a guy who could replace Dempster in their rotation immediately in Ely and a young pitching prospect in Sanchez and a reliever close to the majors in Ames.

Conclusion

At this rate, I'd prefer the Dodgers go after Dempster than Garza. This post at Obstructed View breaks down Dempster's potential trade value.

"Top 10 hitting prospects     $36.5M
Top 11-25 hitters     $25.1
Top 26-50 hitters     $23.4
Top 51-75 hitters     $14.2
Top 76-100 hitters     $12.5
Top 10 pitching prospects     $15.2
Top 11-25 pitchers     $15.9
Top 26-50 pitchers     $15.9
Top 51-75 pitchers     $12.1
Top 76-100 pitchers     $9.8
Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels)     $7.3
Grade B hitters     $5.5
Grade C pitchers 22 or younger     $2.1
Grade C pitchers 23 or older     $1.5
Grade C hitters 22 or younger     $0.7
Grade C hitters 23 or older     $0.5

The bolded red line is the maximum that we should expect the Cubs to get in return if they traded Dempster today. That's using the high WAR estimate so realistically it's probably closer to the Grade B pitcher or hitter. if they wait until the deadline the Cubs may be looking at only a grade C pitcher or a couple grade C hitters."

This is assume the Cubs eat a majority of the contract. The only guys the Dodgers have who fall into that category are Zach Lee, Webster and Eovaldi. I wouldn't move any of them to acquire Dempster. However, the next line is intriguing because the Dodgers have a ton of those guys (including Lee, Webster and Eovaldi).

Since Garza is locked up through 2013, giving up some talent to get him might not be that big a deal. But if the Dodgers give up any of their top youngsters (Lee, Eovaldi, Chris Reed, Joc Pederson, Rubby De La Rosa) for Garza, I'm not sure I'd be on board. Garza's career numbers aren't that much better than Chad Billingsley's, whom he would be expected to outpitch for the No. 2 spot in the rotation.

The Dodgers could get a starter on the cheap (Dempster) and focus on acquiring a bat with their better trade chips.

Photo credit: mootown, Flickr

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 8 -- Dodgers, MLB Draft, Seager, Valentin, plus other news and notes

The latest episode of "Dugout Blues" is live (actually has been since draft night). Jared Massey and I discuss, briefly, the Dodgers' losing streak, their victory on Monday against Philadelphia, some minor-league news (Chris Reed promotion) and me headed out to see the Quakes.

However, we spend most of our time talking about the Dodgers' draft. I think I'm more stoked than Massey about the Corey Seager pick. We both had Richie Shaffer, who was drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays at No. 25, as the No. 1 player on our respective boards. He likes the Jesmuel Valentin pick more than me, but it looks like it could be a signability pick, as the Dodgers third-round pick Onelki Garcia is going to require more than third-round money to sign.

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Tommy Lasorda suffered a mild heart attack on Tuesday, but he's going to be OK. Thanks goodness.

 Clayton Kershaw is dealing with plantar fasciitis, but he's not expected to miss any time.

The Dodgers' signed Wes Roemer, writes Shaun Garrison. He had been pitching for the St. Paul Saints of the American Association (independent ball).

Mike Petriello looks at the Dodgers' reported interest in John Lannan. At this point, I'd rather save the money and prospects and just go with John Ely (who had another great outing for Albuquerque last night).

Nathan Eovaldi makes the Dodgers look smart for not signing Roy Oswalt

Look, there's no debating the illustrious career of Roy Oswalt, but perhaps it was a good thing he didn't sign with the Dodgers.

Oswalt signed with the Rangers on Tuesday -- 1 year, $5 million plus $1 million in incentives. That's a pretty decent price and I wouldn't have been opposed to the Dodgers picking him up on a similar deal. But when Nathan Eovaldi has a season debut like he had against Milwaukee, it makes losing out on Oswalt -- who really didn't want to play in Los Angeles -- much more bearable.

Eovaldi threw seven innings of two-run ball last night. The only mistake he made was to Ryan Braun, the reigning National League MVP. The fact the Dodgers couldn't give him any run support is not his fault.

I was also impressed he was able to go seven innings on 90 pitches in his first big league start of the season. His longest outing in the minors was seven innings and was the longest of his Major League career. Not only that, he did it while averaging 95 MPH on both of his fastballs. That's impressive.

He was, however, surprisingly even on groundouts and fly outs (9-9) after posting a 1.75 rate with Chattanooga this season. But he was able to keep the Milwaukee bats in check.

Granted, the Brewers' lineup isn't as good as in years past, thanks to the loss of Prince Fielder and the struggles of Rickie Weeks, but Eovaldi had little trouble dispatching with some solid hitters.

If Eovaldi can step in for Ted Lilly admirably, the Dodgers can focus their resources on improving the offense -- something that is more pressing than another starting pitcher.

Of course, teams like the Mets and White Sox need to stop winning so guys like David Wright and Paul Konerko become available.

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Here's my latest "Down on the Farm" report at ChadMoriyama.com. Here's an excerpt:

"Can there really be a Pitcher Of The Week when the staff allowed 57 runs in seven games? Sure. This week, it’s Ely. Elymania posted a great line this week: 14 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 13 K. This is his second POTW honor, and it’s really surprising to see such a good performance from him in a week the team allowed so many runs. In fact, if you take away Ely’s three runs allowed, the rest of the Isotopes staff allowed 54 runs. That’s … ugly.

After a rough start to the season, Ely has put up some great numbers in an extreme hitter’s league: 3.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 4.33 BB/K and a 1.85 groundout to flyout rate. He wouldn’t be nearly this good in the majors, but it’s nice to see him pitching well in case the Dodgers need an emergency starter later this season."

John Ely is having a fantastic season for the Isotopes and is renewing faith in myself (for whatever that's worth) that he can be a decent emergency starting pitcher option, if needed.

Catching up on Dodger news

Sorry for the lack of posts the past week. I went out of town for the weekend. Lots of stuff has happened in the past week, so let's get right down to it (in no apparent order).

Jerry Sands and Justin Sellers demoted
- Both were long shots to make the roster -- especially Sands -- but the experience both gained in camp this year is invaluable. Both youngsters were sent to the Dodgers' minor-league camp.

While Sands put up impressive numbers (not the be-all, end-all, especially in spring), Sellers didn't. However, the fact Sellers was a candidate for the 25th man just shows what the Dodger organization thinks of him. He should be one of the first infielders called up, if needed.

With Sellers' demotion, the last utility infield spot seems to be down to Aaron Miles and Juan Castro. Oy vey.

Sands, despite his hot spring, was demoted. It was the right move by the Dodgers. I wrote a couple weeks ago that Sands needed to start in the minors to hit against more advanced pitching.

With his performance, a lot of people are excited at the prospects of this prospect. Here's hoping he lives up to the hype.

Matt Kemp is on fire
- Kemp hit his fourth home run of the spring on Sunday. Eight of Kemp's 14 hits this spring have gone for extra bases.

The Dodgers are counting on Kemp to rebound for him poor 2010. I'm extremely confident in Kemp's ability to best his career-best numbers in all the major categories this season. His role has been clearly defined by Don Mattingly (cleanup hitter, center fielder) which should help him realize his full potential.

Rubby De La Rosa is turning heads
- De La Rosa pitched four no-hit innings on Friday against the Giants, walking three and striking out two. De La Rosa's spring ERA is down to 1.80 in 10 innings of work. He's allowed seven hits, two runs, three walks and has struck out seven. His groundout/airout ratio is at 1.33 -- a little low for him. Still, the Dodgers must be toying with the idea of letting this flamethrower pitch out of the 'pen to start his career.

I'm not on board with this. The Dodgers have a glut of relievers and De La Rosa needs to stretch his arm out to be able to handle a full starter's workload. He should start in Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A. He could see time with the Dodgers this season, and possibly sooner than September.

Who is this Hector Gimenez?
- Gimenez, a journeyman, AAAA, is hitting enough to warrant consideration of a 25-man roster spot. Gimenez, who can catch and play first base (and possibly a little third), could be a nice utility-type player for the Dodgers. He has three home runs and a 1.136 OPS (I know, Spring Training). However, he certainly couldn't be much worse than Dioner Navarro, he of the .267 on- base percentage.

There isn't much chance of Gimenez beating out Navarro, but the Dodgers could consider keeping him aboard, especially if Casey Blake starts the season on the disabled list.

Xavier Paul got hot
- Paul has been hot since his cold start this spring. With Blake's season debut in doubt and Jay Gibbons having trouble with his eye sight (even though it appears to be "fixed,"), Paul, who is out of options, could find himself on the roster for Opening Day. However, his 1:14 BB:K ratio is rather alarming.

The pitching staff has struggled
- Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, John Ely and Hiroki Kuroda were all knocked around a little in their most recent starts. It's best to get those cobwebs out of the way in March.

Matt Guerrier, who gave up three home runs in 71 innings last season, has given up three home runs in six spring innings.

Speaking of Ely...
- Ely is bidding to be the Dodgers' fifth starter over Tim Redding. Ely has 15 strikeouts in 15 innings this spring. Could we be seeing the second coming of Elymania?

Will Mike MacDougal make the cut?
- MacDougal has a 0.00 ERA this spring, but he does have four walks in his 6 1/3 innings pitched. Still, folks will be influenced by that ERA and thanks to Ronald Belisario's inability to be in America, MacDougal, who seemingly had zero business breaking camp with the Dodgers, is looking more and more like a cinch for the 'pen.

Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness has a good blog post about MacDougal and what to expect. Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. also has a write-up on MacDougal.

Tony Gwynn is making an impression
- My last entry was about Gwynn and the Dodgers' need for him to hit. Petriello must have read it because he had a similar (and admittedly, more in-depth) post about Gwynn and what he can do for the Dodgers.

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In other Dodger blog news...

True Blue L.A.'s Chad Moriyama has a Prospect Profile on one of my favorite Dodger prospects, Trayvon Robinson.

Memories of Kevin Malone's Greg Zakwin has his 2010 Center Field Year in Review up.

L.A. Dodger Talk's Jared Massey and Mark Timmons of have been in Arizona following the Dodgers for the last few days. The guys from True Blue L.A. (Eric Stephen and David Young) have been there, too.

Opinion of Kingman's Performance's Evan Bladh, Sr., has an interesting post on nicknames.

Lasorda's Lair's Kenny Shulsen takes a first-hand look at Camelback Ranch.

New Mexico Fan's Evan looks at how the Isotopes' roster is shaping up.

2011 Los Angeles Dodgers Season Preview: Rotation

In the second of a nine-part series, here is my preview of the Dodgers' starting rotation for 2011.

LHP Clayton Kershaw
- Kershaw is the unquestioned ace of the Dodger staff and is the best young left-handed starter in all of baseball. Kershaw followed up his breakout 2009 season with arguably a better 2010. Kershaw lowered his BB/9 from 4.8 in '09 to 3.6 in '10, and his K/BB increased from 2.03 to 2.62. He threw 204 1/3 innings as a 22-year-old and things will only improve from here. The addition of a slider really helped him improve. He should make his first All-Star team in 2011.

RHP Chad Billingsley
- Billingsley is a polarizing figure amongst Dodger fans and media. People love to focus on his poor starts against Philadelphia in the playoffs and a poor second half in 2009. People overlook the good -- like his second half of last season. Despite going 5-7 in the second half, he had a 3.00 ERA (4.14 in the first half), 1.17 WHIP while giving up one home run. In fact, Billingsley set a career-low in HR/9 with 0.4. The biggest improvement overall was his control and willingness to pitch to contact. His H/9 increased slightly from '09-'10 (7.9 to 8.3), but his BB/9 decreased (3.9 to 3.2) and his K/BB improved (from 2.08 to 2.48). And after leading the National League in wild pitches in '09 with 14, he reduced that number to four. He's not trying to strike every hitter out. He's becoming a pitcher, which is scary for the rest of the NL West.

RHP Hiroki Kuroda
- Kuroda had his best season in 2009. Many thought he was destined to return to Japan after some success in the big leagues, but the Dodgers gave him a 1-year, $12 million contract to pitch in 2011. While he isn't as durable as many would like, he did set a career-high in innings pitched (196 1/3) at age 35. If he's healthy, he could conceivably reach the 200-inning plateau. Kuroda is a solid vet and a perfect fit as the Dodgers No. 3- or 4 starter.

LHP Ted Lilly
- Lilly was signed to a 3-year deal. In hindsight, the Dodgers probably overpaid for his services a bit -- but it wasn't a gross overpay. Lilly was good with the Dodgers in 76 2/3 following the July 31 trade, posting a 3.52 ERA and minuscule 0.99 WHIP. However, he gave up a lot of home runs -- 13, good for a 1.5 HR/9 rate (tied for highest on the team). His mark of 1.4 HR/9 in his career doesn't lead me to believe he's going to suddenly decrease his home run rate. So, he's just going to have to keep guys off base. I wish Lilly threw harder, but the Dodgers could do a lot worse for a No. 4 starter.

RHP Jon Garland
- Garland was a surprise signing this off-season. The Dodgers usually go with a retread or rookie as the No. 5 starter, but Garland is coming off one of the best season's of his career (partly due to playing in San Diego's pitcher-friendly pet shop). His WHIP was a little higher than ideal -- 1.31 -- but that certainly isn't terrible. Garland's been touted as a ground-ball pitcher, but his career rate (45.2 percent) would lead you to believe otherwise. He did tally a career-high 51.9 percent ground-ball rate in 2010, but that isn't exactly a trend. Like Lilly, the Dodgers could do a lot worse for a No. 5 starter.

Guys in the mix

Barring injury, the Dodgers' rotation is set, but these guys will be considered (after Vicente Padilla) if the Dodgers need a starter in 2011.

RHP John Ely
- Elymainia struck last year, but not nearly as hard as Fernandomainia did in 1981 (that's an understatement). However, Ely flashed some ability. In his first eight games, he was 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a 3.9 K/BB ratio. Things went to hell after that, ultimately resulting in him ending up in Triple-A, where he was absolutely rocked. Ely could be a decent No. 4- or 5 starter in the bigs, but if he isn't locating his pitches with pinpoint accuracy, he's going to get roughed up. It's that simple. He'll start at Albuquerque.

RHP Tim Redding
- Redding was signed to a minor-league deal and apparently spurned better offers from other teams. Redding pitched for the Rockies' and Yankees' Triple-A teams last year, going 8-5 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. That's nothing to get excited about, as the 33-year-old (today is his birthday, by the way) last pitched in majors in 2009 for the Mets (3-6, 5.10, 1.43). He'd probably get the call before Ely if the Dodgers needed a seventh starter because of his "veteran" goodness -- but that doesn't make it the right decision. He'll join a solid Albuquerque rotation.

RHP Carlos Monasterios
- Monasterios was the Dodgers' Rule 5 pick last winter and to much surprise, made the club. He had his struggles while starting, posting a 5.91 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 4.9 K/9 and a 1.45 K/BB ratio. He had a few decent starts, but threw five or more innings five times in his 13 starts. He also gave up 12 home runs in 53 1/3 innings as a starter (2.02 HR/9), which won't cut it. He performed much better as a reliever (2.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.56 K/BB). That is where he'll make his name in the majors. If the Dodgers need an emergency starter, he could handle it, but he'll make his name as a reliever. He'll begin the season in the Triple-A rotation and could be one of the first pitchers called up to fill a bullpen need.

RHP Jon Link
- Link (as well as Mike MacDougal, Travis Schlichting and Oscar Villarreal) probably should have been in my bullpen preview, but the Dodgers are going to try Link as a starter -- at least in Triple-A. Link didn't have the greatest debut with the Dodgers and he'd be an absolute last resort as a starter (assuming he doesn't flourish in his new role).

RHP Rubby De La Rosa
- If Link was a last resort, De La Rosa is an absolute long shot. While his fastball is electric, his breaking stuff needs work. The only way De La Rosa makes the rotation at some point in the season is if there's a ton of injuries and he is absolutely lights-out in the minors. I don't doubt his ability, but there's no need to have unnecessary expectations for De La Rosa.

Analysis

The rotation is setting up nicely. I mean, when guys like Lilly and Garland are your No. 4- and 5 starters, that bodes well for your team's success. With Padilla to back them up, the Dodger pitching staff as a whole looks to be in great shape. Kershaw is on his way to superstardom and Billingsley aims to shut his critics up. While the Dodgers were interested in Zack Greinke, I don't really see them making a move for a starter this season unless things go horribly wrong.

Next up: Bench

John Ely, quite the find

When the Dodgers traded Juan Pierrein December for a couple of no-name prospects, intelligent Dodger fans were elated. The fact is, we would have been happy with a bucket of sunflower seeds and batting practice balls for lil' Fivel.

Instead, the Dodgers might have stolen a quality starter from the White Sox in John Ely.

The 24-year-old came to the Dodgers with Jon Link, and Ely has been nothing but spectacular.

He doesn't have the best or most overpowering "stuff," but he gets the job done.

So far, he's 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA and team-low 1.00 WHIP (for starting pitchers). His fastball tops out at 90 MPH and he has a slider, curveball and changeup - a classic repetoire for a starter. However, it's his command that is the most impressive.

Coming into today's start against the Cubs, Ely had walked four batters in his previous five starts. He ended up walking two against the Cubs and suffered a tough-luck 1-0 defeat.

While Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley are the headliners of the rotation, Ely has firmly entrentched himself as the team's No. 4 starter.


Photo credit: Malingering