Report: Dodgers acquire Ramon Hernandez from Rockies for Aaron Harang in confusing deal

In a bit of surprising news from Saturday morning, the Dodgers have acquired catcher Ramon Hernandez from the Rockies.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted the Dodgers traded Aaron Harang and cash to acquire Hernandez.

Hernandez was designated for assignment last week by Colorado, so the team could only trade or release him, as he wouldn't accept an assignment to Triple-A.

Hernandez was unimpressive last season, hitting just .217/.247/.353 -- a line that could make Baby Jesus weep -- in just 52 games. He played in 91 games the year before with the Reds and hit much better: .282/.341/.446.

Hernandez is due $3.2 million this season. Not a bad price for a starting catcher, but Hernandez won't be a starting catcher with the Dodgers. That honor belongs to A.J. Ellis.

However, the fate of Tim Federowicz is uncertain at this point. The 25-year-old won the backup job in spring training, but that is apparently short-lived. Hernandez is set to displace Federowicz as the team's backup, meaning Federowicz is slated for Triple-A or, perhaps more likely, a trade.

This move is a tad puzzling. Yes, Hernandez has better offensive potential (even at his advanced age), but Federowicz is miles ahead of him on defense.

Hernandez hasn't had a positive defensive runs saved number since 2008 when he was with the Orioles. He's at -24 in the last four years -- the second-worst number of any catcher in that time.

While the Dodgers have started slow on offense this season, acquiring marginally better offensive backstop in lieu of a better defender is weird.

Hernandez will take Harang's 40-man roster spot. And with Chad Billingsley set to come back on Wednesday, the team needs to free up a spot for him on the pitching staff. The spot on the staff is open, and it seems Federowicz, barring a trade as mentioned earlier, is heading back to Triple-A.

Federowicz has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. He's a marginal offensive player, who can draw a walk, with a plus glove. He isn't going to learn how to be a better hitter in Triple-A -- his third go-round.

The return for Harang wasn't going to be much, but you'd think the Dodgers could do a little better than this for Harang. Hell, even a low-level reliever would have been a better return. But, here we are.

Harang's stay in Colorado could be short, as Ken Rosenthal tweeted Harang isn't likely to stay with the Rockies.

This screams of a 3-way deal, as it doesn't make a lot of sense to send Federowicz back to Albuquerque, especially with Jesus Flores and Matt Wallach likely able to hold the fort down there.

We'll see what happens. This is a fluid situation right now. and we haven't heard the end of this deal yet.

Photo credits

Hernandez: Commonist, Wikimedia Commons

Federowicz: EephusBlue, Paint the Corners

First impression of Dodgers' Hyun-Jin Ryu: Not an ace, but not bad, either

Hyun-Jin Ryu pitched at Camelback Ranch on Sunday -- the last day of my spring training trip. I was lucky enough to see him on that day.

While it started off rough, he ended up throwing a gem (by spring training standards).

Ryu gave up a run on three hits in the first inning, with little help from his defense. Luckily for Ryu, Adrian Gonzalez hit a 3-run home run in the first inning, and the Dodgers were off.

Ryu ended up throwing 5 2/3 innings, allowed three hits, one run, two walks and struck out six Brewers. He retired the last 11 hitters he faced on St. Patrick's Day (hence the ridiculous green jerseys).

Pitches
- Scouting reports have varied on Ryu and what I saw in spring training is just that -- spring training. But he showed at least one plus offering, an average offering, an offering that could be average soon and a below-average offering.

Four-seam fastball
- The scouting reports about Ryu have not been consistent. Some said he throws in the 87-92 MPH range, others said 92-94 MPH. On this day, Ryu was in the 88-90 MPH range with his fastball. He had just a little arm-side run (as all lefties do) and was able to locate it well enough. Hopefully for him and the Dodgers, he can increase his velocity going forward. Average

Changeup
- This is absolutely his best pitch. The pitch dives away from right-handers, prompting a lot of swings and misses. He can change speeds on it. He threw it in the 78-81 MPH range, which is about right for his fastball velocity. The changeup will be the pitch he will be known for in his career -- and that necessarily isn't a bad thing. Plus

Curveball
- Ryu worked with Sandy Koufax early in camp on the pitch and it might be developing into his third-best offering. He can throw it at different speeds -- anywhere from 71-78 MPH. It still needs work, but it could be a nice weapon against left-handed hitters if he can be consistent with it. Average soon

Slider
- His slider, like most lefties, can be effective against both types of hitters. As of now, it's not a pitch he can go to with the utmost confidence. It's a pitch that sits in the upper-70s and can touch the low-80s. But the fact he throws four pitches at this point in his career is encouraging. The slider doesn't have the greatest tilt and depth to it, but he shouldn't ditch it just yet. Below-average

His delivery isn't picturesque, but it works for him and shouldn't lead to many injury issues down the road. His frame is such that he should be able to handle a heavy (I swear, no pun intended) workload, but we'll see how he handles his first season in the majors.

When Ryu hit the market, everyone knew he wasn't an ace. People knew he wasn't a No. 2 starter. But with work and his potentially good four-pitch mix, he could be a No. 3 starter at his peak. If not, he'll likely be an inning-eating (again, no pun intended) back-of-the-rotation starter -- a pitcher who has value in baseball.

With Chad Billingsley not certain to make it through the season, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, and Ted Lilly's spring struggles and Zack Greinke's elbow (though, he should be OK), Ryu might be the most durable Dodger pitcher this side of Clayton Kershaw.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Zack Greinke's elbow is OK (for now), Dodgers and fans breathe sigh of relief

When Bill Shaikin tweeted about Zack Greinke's elbow yesterday, Dodger fans everywhere held their collective breath. Could the team's biggest free agent signing ever really be hurt already?

Luckily, Greinke's MRI came back relatively clean, save some inflammation. But in a somewhat surprising twist, Greinke needed a platelet-rich plasma injection -- the same injection Chad Billingsley received for his partially torn ulnar collateral ligament.

I'm not saying Greinke has a serious problem with his UCL, but the PRP injection is something worth noting.

He should return to his throwing program in the next couple days and manager Don Mattingly expects Greinke to be ready for his April 2 start.

The Dodgers stated they were being overly cautious with Greinke's elbow, and rightfully so. There's nothing wrong with that for any player, but especially a player who signed a 6-year, $147 million contract this winter.

And something refreshing pointed out by Mike Petriello:

"One positive from this Greinke elbow thing is that he told the team. We've seen far too many guys try to 'gut it out' and make things worse."

If any player is going to be upfront about his health status, it's Greinke.

Here's hoping this isn't a problem going forward, but it also just shows how volatile Major League pitchers are these days.

Maybe it's a good thing the Dodgers haven't yet traded one of their 47 starting pitchers, but more specifically, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang and Ted Lilly. I'm certain at least one will go before April 1, but it's anyone's guess at this point who that pitcher might be.

Photo credit: EephusBlue, Twitter

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 26 - Dodgers, Kershaw, Puig, Harang

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (Dodger Diamond) and I look at Dodger spring training up to this point.

Clayton Kershaw is off to a slow start in Spring Training. Is it something to be concerned about? Yasiel Puig is the talk of camp and fans are clamoring for his inclusion on the 25-man roster. It isn't going to happen, even if Carl Crawford begins the season on the disabled list.

Aaron Harang is drawing the interest of a couple teams. Will the Dodgers trade him?

Jared talks about his new domain name and the beginning of his Top 20 prospect write-ups. First up are Julio Urias and Garrett Gould.

And we close with listener questions a listener question. Of this trio, who breaks camp with the team? Brian Barden, Alex Castellanos or Jeremy Moore. The answer might surprise you (it won't).

Libsyn link
Direct link
iTunes link

Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@LADugout or @FeelinKindaBlue). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 22 - Dodgers, Ross Stripling interview, prospects, minors, listener questions

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (L.A. Dugout) and I interview Dodgers' pitching prospect Ross Stripling. He was the team's 2012 fifth-round selection and gives us a lot of insight to his increased velocity, his first season as a pro and what he did on draft day.

We examine the Dodger prospects who made Keith Law's Top 100 list. There were only two, and one omission might surprise you.

We talk about two Dodger prospects who are moving to the bullpen -- both of which were expected moves. One is Chris Withrow, the other Pedro Baez. Withrow was the Dodgers' 2007 first-round pick and once had a ton of promise. Baez is a former third baseman who just couldn't hit enough to make it as a position player.

Jared and I also touch on non-roster invitees who could potentially make the Opening Day roster or remain in the organization in some capacity.

Finally, we close with listener questions. How old is Yasiel Puig, really? What other podcasts do we listen to? Are the Dodgers doing the right thing by not trading Chris Capuano and/or Aaron Harang just yet?

Libsyn link
Direct link
iTunes link

Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@LADugout or @FeelinKindaBlue). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Andre Ethier trade would improve farm system, but ulitmately limits flexibility

Well, well, well, apparently Andre Ethier isn't as unavailable as previously expected. The Dodgers, despite reports from some in the national media, have been talking to other teams about the outfielder -- specifically, the Seattle Mariners.

Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider and ESPN tweeted the news on New Year's Eve.

"Hearing Mariners have progressed in trade talks for a hitter. Indications it's Ethier. Multiple players involved."

That sent Dodger and Mariner fans into a tizzy on Twitter. Mike Petriello confirmed Churchill's tweet shortly after. He also added some of his thoughts via Twitter. He also did a post this morning about it that is must-read material.

"Here's the thing about Ethier talks, though: it's not going to be for Seager. If it happens, it'll be for SP prospects & maybe BRyan...

...and then Dodgers would fill OF hole with Bourne. But this isn't really new, has been the case for a while. And not tonight. (Hopefully).

Just because it's hitting Twitter now doesn't necessarily mean it's 'breaking,' is all I mean."

If it was Jason Bourne, I'd like the potential move a little more. Alas, the Bourn the Dodgers have their eye on is Michael Bourn.

Churchill said there could be as many as seven players involved and that the Dodgers would be looking at pitching prospects, an outfielder and another player.

When I wrote about a trade with the Mariners nearly a couple weeks ago, I came up with this proposal:

To Seattle: Ethier, Dee Gordon, cash (to offset some of Ethier's money)
To L.A.: Kyle Seager, Nick Franklin, Franklin Gutierrez, Brandon Maurer

I obviously blew it on this one. Most folks were up in arms about the inclusion of Seager, who is apparently a lot more valuable than I thought.

The Dodgers and Mariners have the potential to make quite a significant deal here. The Mariners are known to have interest in Gordon and one of the Dodger starters on the market -- Chris Capuano or Aaron Harang. The Dodgers would also have to throw in a significant amount of cash to get quality players in return.

I'm not going to do another proposal, but I'm going to throw out some players the Dodgers would be interested in. You'll notice this list doesn't include Felix Hernandez, Taijuan Walker and Mike Zunino. It isn't because the Dodgers don't have interest in him, it's because the M's aren't going to include those guys (especially Hernandez and Zunino) in a deal for Ethier.

Dustin Ackley
Carter Capps
Nick Franklin
Charlie Furbush
Franklin Gutierrez
Danny Hultzen
Brandon Maurer
James Paxton
Stefen Romero
Brendan Ryan
Casper Wells

I'm only including Ackley because the deal could be more than just Ethier going to Seattle. I don't think Mariners are going to move him, but he'd be the No. 1 prize of any trade.

If the Dodgers can't get Ackley (and they probably can't), getting guys like Hultzen and Franklin to headline a deal would be amazing.

The Mariners would have a glut of outfielders if they acquired Ethier, so moving Gutierrez or Wells in a deal like this would make sense.

A guy who could be a target is Romero, 24, who had a fantastic season between High-A and Double-A. His on-base skills need work (27 walks in 516 plate appearances in 2012), but he can put the bat on the ball (.352 average).

While Luis Cruz is a fine backup shortstop, he can't be counted on to backup Hanley Ramirez while he's manning third base. Perhaps that's the reason for Ryan's name being bandied about. The guy is a great defender, but he can't hit a lick (.194/.277/.278 in '12).

Silverwidow, a True Blue L.A. commenter, made an excellent point that I haven't seen made anywhere else yet.

"One thing that just dawned on me – the Dodgers hired a shitload of scouts from Seattle this winter. It’s fair to conclude that some or all of them will have knowledge of that system. Makes sense. Now, get Paxton!"

That is accurate and makes a potential deal a little more plausible.

There are a lot of potential moving parts in a possible deal -- which isn't especially close (having said that, it'll happen on Wednesday or Thursday).

Ethier's replacement?

Oh yeah, there's the matter of who would replace Ethier if he were traded. Apparently, the Dodgers see Bourn as that guy.

Bourn, 30, is coming off a nice campaign with the Braves. He hit .274/.348/.391 with a career-high nine home runs, 42 stolen bases and a 10 percent walk rate.

The Dodgers lack a "true" leadoff hitter. We all know Don Mattingly loves having speed atop the lineup. Carl Crawford is going to hit second (as long as he's productive) and having Bourn hit ahead of him would make Donnie Baseball the happiest cat around.

Bourn's value lies more in his defense than anything. He is the definition of an elite defender in center field -- so much so that he'd move Matt Kemp off the position. Kemp is a below-average defender in center, but his arm is great. However, moving Kemp to right field would improve the outfield defense a lot.

He had a career-high 6.4 WAR in 2012 and has been no worse than a 4-WAR player since 2009.

Eno Sarris of FanGraphs wrote a piece about Bourn and his unsigned status.

"Why isn’t there more interest in Michael Bourn? A six-win center fielder is on the market, and our most recent article on the subject is whether or not his agent has waited too long to get him a deal. We don’t know what his asking price is, but the idea that a player coming off a career year and four straight seasons with more than four wins now needs a pillow contract seems to suggest that either there’s a reason to doubt Bourn’s work, or there’s a lack of demand for his services in the market place.

There really aren’t many indications that Bourn’s 2012 was a luck-driven affair. His batting average on balls in play was .349. His career BABIP is .343. His batting average was .274. His career batting average is .272. He put up the best UZR/150 of his career at +22.5. His career UZR/150 is +10.5, and he had a +20.6 season as recently as 2010. He walked (10%, career 8.8%) and struck out (22%, career 20.2%) at about his career rates, too. Doesn’t seem like a fluke."

Bourn will likely command a multi-year deal worth many millions. His agent is Scott Boras, who's no stranger to getting his clients great deals late in the winter. The Dodgers could be on the hook for a 3 to 5-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $12-$15 million annually.

Signing Bourn would also mean losing the No. 19 pick in the MLB Draft. At first, this was a huge turnoff to me. While I still wouldn't be 100 percent on board with it, getting some legitimate prospects back from the Mariners would help to offset the loss of the pick.

The 2013 draft class isn't expected to be strong, making the pick more valuable in my eyes. The Dodgers wouldn't pick until the second round, which would hamper their ability to land a future major leaguer. That's something to consider.

Something that also concerns me about Bourn is his strikeouts. For being a guy who's a speedy, slappy leadoff guy, he strikes out an awful lot.

• 2008: 21.6 percent
• 2009: 20.6 percent
• 2010: 18 percent
• 2011: 19.4 percent
• 2012: 22 percent

Those are the strikeout rates of a power hitter, not a speedster. Bourn's career strikeout percentage is 20.2. By comparison, Kemp's is 23.4. That's the biggest negative with his offensive game. His 8.8 percent career walk rate is solid and has been trending up since 2008.

Here's a look at the potential starting lineups with and without Ethier.

With Ethier

Mark Ellis 2B
Carl Crawford LF
Matt Kemp CF
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Hanley Ramirez SS
Andre Ethier RF
A.J. Ellis C
Luis Cruz 3B

With Bourn

Bourn CF
Crawford LF
Kemp RF
Gonzalez 1B
Ramirez SS
Ellis C
Ellis 2B
Cruz 3B

The biggest differences between are the leadoff spots and No. 6 spots. With the Ethier lineup, there's more thump down in the lineup. With the Bourn lineup, there's more potential for havoc at the top.biggest differences between are the leadoff spots and No. 6 spots. With the Ethier lineup, there's more thump down in the lineup. With the Bourn lineup, there's more potential for havoc at the top, plus better overall defense.

I've really never been opposed to the Dodgers trading Ethier. I've written about it a number of times. However, replacing him with Bourn doesn't interest me as much as it does others, I'm sure.

My thought was if the Dodgers move Ethier, they gain flexibility for guys like Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson going forward. While they're unknown commodities, the Dodgers did invest a nice chunk of change in Puig. And Pederson had a breakout 2012 season. Signing Bourn immediately gives up that flexibility.

It's hard to field a competitive Major League team while keeping a strong farm system. Not many teams can do it for extended periods of time. General Manager Ned Colletti is in a tough spot here. The Dodgers are built to win now and for the next few years. They're also well on their way to rebuilding their farm system. Part of being competitive is flexibility. Having so many players locked up long-term limits flexibility via the minor leagues, but it does open up more trade possibilities.

Management is trying to get this team to the World Series. If they think this is the best route, sobeit. I'm genuinely torn on the subject. Trade Ethier? Fine. Replace him with Bourn? That's where I waffle.

I do like the improved outfield defense and having another stolen base threat in the lineup with Bourn. I'm not a fan of losing Ethier's pop out of the No. 6 spot. If the team had a legitimate third baseman, I'd feel a lot better about moving Ethier and replacing him with Bourn.

This is going to be an interesting situation to follow. Something could happen as soon as this week or nothing at all could happen. The fact that there's this much smoke definitely means there's fire. I'm just hoping the Dodgers can get a couple of B/B+ prospects in any deal of this magnitude.

Photo credits

Ethier: McD22, Flickr

Bourn: slgckgc, Flickr

Don't worry, the Dodgers aren't getting Kyle Lohse, plus other news and links

The Hot Stove is cooling down a bit, but some are doing their best to keep it going. Like Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

Cafardo came up with this gem today regarding Kyle Lohse and the Dodgers.

"The Dodgers may jump in, even with Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang slated for the back end of the rotation."

Lazy journalism strikes again.

First, the speculation is unsourced, likely a concoction of Cafardo's own doing. Second, there's no mention of that Zack Greinke guy. Third, Capuano and Harang are slated for trades, not the end of the rotation (all quiet on that front as of now).

Naturally, MLB Trade Rumors picked it up. However, it didn't make as big a deal about as CBS Sports did.

"He would be an upgrade for the Dodgers over Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang, both of whom they have already attempted to trade. The team's rotation is already crowded, however, so it's unclear if they would actually spend a significant amount of money for the 34-year-old Lohse."

Sigh.

Don't worry, folks, the Dodgers aren't signing Lohse. It makes less sense now than it did before the team signed Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Oh, and there's also the draft pick the Dodgers would lose by signing him.

I don't have to write about this, but it'd be nice if I didn't even have to hear about this nonsense.

Dodger links

Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness suggested some kind of Capuano-for-J.J. Hardy deal. Makes a lot of sense on paper.

Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. looked at Bill James' 2013 projections for Dodgers' starting pitchers. Ryu is missing because he's yet to pitch in the majors.

Mike Newman of FanGraphs wrote about Onelki Garcia and Chris Reed. I "blurbed," (to use his word) about these two videos (and his Joc Pederson one) on Wednesday.

David Larulia of FanGraphs had an informative Q&A with Reed. Bright kid (Stanford guy and all), but I still don't see him sticking in a rotation long-term.

Marc Hulet of FanGraphs posted his Top 15 Dodger prospects. Some curious choices and thin write-ups.

Pete Sorice of Catcher Interference questioned whether Orel Hershiser or Tim Leary was the Dodgers' ace in 1988. Looking at the numbers, it's a valid question. It doesn't really matter, though, as the Dodgers were baseball's best that season (despite not having the best talent).

Chris Jackson of the Albuquerque Examiner wrote about the Dodgers' signing of Dallas McPherson. The last time McPherson was an Isotope (with the Marlins), he hit 42 home runs, so there's that.

Photo credit: shgmom56, Flickr

Dodgers send John Ely to Astros for Rob Rasmussen, and it's a good deal

Not the trade some were expecting, but a trade nonetheless. The Dodgers sent John Ely, the perpetrator of "Elymania" a few years ago to Houston for left-handed pitcher Rob Rasmussen.

With the Dodgers signing Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu, while also shopping starters Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang, Ely was about 15th on the starting pitcher depth chart. It's nice he's going to get a chance somewhere else, as the Astros are coming off a 107-loss season and can use help in the rotation.

Then again, Ely hasn't done much since he fast start, as Eric Stephen aptly pointed out on Twitter.

"After starting his major league career with a 2.54 ERA with 37 K / 8 BB in 46 IP, John Ely's last 18 apps: 1-11, 62 runs in 69.1 IP"

So, there's that. Ely is probably Four-A roster fodder at this point, but it's still a worthwhile risk for Houston.

Rasmussen, 23, is a wee man, listed at 5'9, 160 pounds. Surprisingly, he's been a starting pitcher in his minor-league career (60 games, 53 starts).

Rasmussen was drafted in the second round of the 2010 MLB Draft by the Marlins. Prior to that, he was drafted by the Dodgers in the 27th round of the 2007 draft, but he didn't sign and ended up attending UCLA. He was dealt from the Marlins to the Astros (along with another local boy -- Matt Dominguez) to get Carlos Lee last season.

His peripherals aren't exactly great, but he's left-handed and has a pulse, so he has some value. He generally keeps the ball in the park (0.7 HR/9) and gets a decent amount of strikeouts (7.3 K/9), but his 3.8 BB/9 needs some work. It's not that bad, but it doesn't tell the whole story.

Baseball America ranked him No. 7 in the Miami system prior to the 2012 season. FanGraphs ranked him No. 15 in the Astros' stacked system and Minor League Ball gave him a "C+" grade, but not a Top-20 ranking this winter.

From FanGraphs:

"A scout I spoke to about the former UCLA pitcher sees a big league role in his future. 'I think he'll be able to get people out at the big league level but he's got to get the ball down,' he said. 'He's up to 94 (MPH) with two breaking balls. The little dude works his tail off.' Two concerns brought up were his lack of deception, as well as his command/control issues – although he has few red flags in his delivery."

From Minor League Ball:

"Rasmussen was drafted in the second round in 2010, out of UCLA. He is pitching in the High-A Florida State League this year at age 23, posting a 3.90 ERA with a 75/36 K/BB in 88 innings with 83 hits allowed. Rasmussen is undersized at 5-9, 160, but he has good arm strength and works in the low-90s, mixing in a curve, slider, and changeup. Rasmussen threw strikes in college but has had mixed results as a pro, and has not dominated the lower levels of the farm system. He could be a fifth starter but is more probably a reliever in the long run."

Control seems to be Rasmussen's biggest issue -- and rightfully so. His fastball sits in the 89-92 MPH range. He also has a potentially plus-slider and potentially an average curveball and changeup. He has the classic four-pitch arsenal and, coming from the left side, makes it a little bit better.

Being able to control and command the pitches are going to be what determines his future -- as well as his build. There aren't many sub-6-foot starting pitchers in the game, which is why many are projecting him as a reliever. I say, let him stay in the rotation until he proves he can't handle it.

Rasmussen threw 54 1/3 innings in Double-A last season and I could see him beginning the season in Double-A with a midseason promotion to Triple-A, if warranted.

Oh, and there's really nothing to not like about the trade.

Photo credit: Brhirschmann, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers, Korean lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu agree to contract at the last minute

It took the full 30 days, but the Dodgers and Hyun-Jin Ryu on Sunday agreed to a contract. The total financial commitment the Dodgers made is unknown, but it cost $25.7 million to get to this point. Odds are, it's going to be a $50 million-plus commitment.

Update (2:43 p.m.): Jon Heyman and Tim Brown tweet that Ryu will get $36 million over six years. He also can earn $1 million per season in performance bonuses. He also has an opt-out clause after five years and "an innings threshold." The total commitment to Ryu is six years and about $67.7 million. A hefty sum for a middle-of-the-rotation guy. Mike Petriello had the years/amount first (6/42).

As of this moment, the lefty is expected to be in the Dodgers' rotation -- at least, that's what a financial commitment of this type would indicate.

The rotation is jam-packed right now, but with the Zack Greinke signing and this deal, there will be a trade or two in the near future (I'm looking at you, Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang). With Chad Billingsley's status unknown, I'd venture a guess Ryu slots in as the team's No. 5 starter at this point.

And despite the Dodgers' adding two starting pitchers, word is they're looking to make another big splash -- in the starting rotation.

The team has been connected to Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse (unfortunately), R.A. Dickey and James Shields. The Dodgers obviously have a better chance of landing a guy like Sanchez or Lohse, but they have enough to make a play for Dickey, if they wanted. Shields would be ideal, but is unlikely.

The Dodgers are putting an awful lot of money into the starting rotation. They could also use a third baseman, but the market is nowhere near as plentiful as it is for starting pitcher.

The Dodgers' front office obviously has a plan. Let's just hope they aren't planning on going into the 2013 with Luis Cruz as their starting third baseman.

Reports: Dodgers and Pirates talking Capuano-for-Hanrahan swap

Word broke earlier today from Mark Saxon and Buster Olney of ESPN and Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness that the Dodgers and Pirates have talked about a deal that would send left-hander Chris Capuano to Pittsburgh for right-hander Joel Hanrahan.

This potential deal makes a ton of sense for both sides, but particularly for the Dodgers.

As solid as Capuano was for the Dodgers last season, at least one starting pitcher is going to have to be dealt this offseason to make room for a guy like Zack Greinke or Anibal Sanchez. This would be a step in the right direction.

The term "full circle" comes to mind, as Hanrahan was drafted by the Dodgers in the second round of the 2000 MLB Draft. He was once considered a top prospect as a starting pitcher. He even threw two no-hitters in the minors. However, he never made an appearance with the Dodgers before he was granted free agency in 2006.

Hanrahan, despite an odd 2012 campaign in which he gave up eight home runs (he gave up seven in the previous two seasons combined), had a 5.4 walks per nine innings and an ugly 4.45 FIP, he was able to compile a 2.72 ERA, 10.1 strikeouts per nine and 6.0 hits per nine.

Before 2012, he was on he was to elite status. I'm of the belief his 2012 was more of an aberration and his 2010 and 2011 seasons are more the norm.

The 31-year-old will likely earn about $6-$7 million in his final year of arbitration, which is a drop in the bucket to the Dodgers. Capuano is due $7 million guaranteed this season, so the salaries are almost a wash.

The Pirates need help in the rotation while the Dodgers need to free up space in the rotation -- it seems like a good match. If the Dodgers can land an arm such as Harahan for a guy like Capuano, it seems like a no-brainer for me.

While Capuano is a better pitcher than Aaron Harang and more of a sure thing than Ted Lilly, he also holds more trade value on the open market. There's no way a team like the Pirates would want Harang or Lilly for Harahan.

If the Dodgers land him, they'll have an absolutely nasty bullpen. He wouldn't close like he did in Pittsburgh, but it'd be tough to name a better seventh-inning guy than Hanrahan.

Potential bullpen

Ronald Belisario
Scott Elbert (provided his elbow is OK)
Hanrahan
Kenley Jansen
Brandon League
Paco Rodriguez

That's not even including guys like Javy Guerra, Shawn Tolleson or whoever else the Dodgers might acquire.

The Dodgers probably won't make this deal until they're sure his spot is upgraded. But it almost seems like a formality at this point. I'm all for it, if and when it happens.

Photo credit: UC International, Wikimedia Commons

If the Dodgers sign Zack Greinke, they'll need to trade a pitcher or two

You can never have too much pitching, but I think the Dodgers might take this notion a bit too far.

The Dodgers are considered the front-runners this winter by multiple sources for the services of Zack Greinke. With the Dodgers' rotation already full, someone is going to have to go if the team does indeed sign the right-hander.

But who?

The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw, who absolutely isn't going anywhere. Other than him, the remaining five pitchers could all be trade candidates.

That leaves Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, Josh Beckett, Ted Lilly and, yes, Chad Billingsley.

Let's break this down a bit.

Capuano

The 34-year-old southpaw is coming off one of the best seasons of his career and probably has the most trade value of the five.

He was second to Kershaw in innings pitched (198 1/3), WHIP (1.22) and actually had the lowest walks per nine of all the Dodgers' starters (2.45). He was durable in his first season in Dodger Blue and would be attractive to a team looking for a back-end starter who's good for at least 175 innings.

Capuano has a somewhat friendly contract, as he's signed for $6 million for the 2013 season. He and the club also have a mutual option for 2014 at $8 million (or a $1 million buyout). He's guaranteed $7 million, which is a nice price for a No. 4 starter (FanGraphs valued his 2012 season at $9.4 million).

Trade possibility: 80 percent

Harang

The hulking right-hander had a perfectly mediocre 2012 season -- as mediocre as his pitching career, I suppose. But Harang, 34, does hold some value.

In his last nine seasons, he's failed to top 161 innings just once (2010). He's averaged 183 innings in that span. In his last two seasons, he's averaged 175 innings and a 102 ERA+, which is basically league-average.

Harang is signed for $7 million this season. He, like Capuano, has a mutual option for 2014 at $7 or $8 million ($2 million buyout). He's guaranteed $9 million, which makes him a little less valuable to a team looking for a No. 4 or 5 starter, despite the inflated value of pitching these days.

Trade possibility: 40 percent

Beckett

The Dodgers acquired the former flamethrower in August as part of the Adrian Gonzalez deal. He enjoyed moderate success in 43 innings of work as a Dodger. His overall numbers left a lot to be desired, but his 2.93 ERA and 3.61 FIP gives me hope for him the upcoming season.

Beckett has enjoyed odd-year success in the majors, meaning every other year, he has a good or at least decent season.

He hasn't thrown more than 193 inning since 2009 (his age-29 season) and is no lock to even throw 180 innings (164 average in the last three seasons). That, coupled with his unfriendly contract make him a prime candidate to remain in Dodger Blue.

Beckett is signed for $15.75 million each of the last two seasons. For a guy with middle-of-the-rotation upside at this point in his career, that's too much dough for a team to take on.

Trade possibility: 15 percent (and that's being generous)

Lilly

Lilly began the 2012 season on fire, as he was perhaps the biggest surprise of any Dodger starting pitcher. However, a horrendous outing in Arizona, coupled with a shoulder injury ended his season quite fast.

Shoulder injury: the two most frightening words to hear when referring to a starting pitcher. Lilly has never been a fireballer, but it remains to be seen if he can come back from the injury and be a starting pitcher.

If he does come back, the Dodgers would likely use him out of the bullpen as a swingman.

He was pretty decent in 2011 -- his first full season as a Dodger -- posting a 3.97 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 4.21 FIP. Not great, but not horrible, either.

Lilly had a no-trade clause for the first two years of his 3-year deal, but it has since expired. That doesn't mean he'll be traded, but at least the team doesn't have to get his permission to do so -- provided any team would take a chance on a 36-year-old coming off shoulder surgery.

Lilly makes $12 million this season in base salary and is due a $1.5 million signing bonus on April 1.

Trade possibility: 10 percent

Billingsley

Here is the wild card. In a recent episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (L.A. Dugout) mentioned Billingsley as a potential trade candidate. I hadn't thought much about it before then, but he's easily the best pitcher of the five and could bring back the most value.

Of course, Billingsley suffered an elbow injury late last season and had a platelet injection that, for now, has prevented him from having Tommy John surgery. In fact, if not for this injury, he'd be a lot more likely to be traded (to a team like the Royals, which is trying to bolster its starting rotation with veteran pitchers).

Despite having a workhorse-type body, Billingsley has topped 200 innings just once in his career (200 2/3 in 2008). He's always had a problem throwing strikes consistently, leading to his being removed from games in the fifth- and sixth innings. His stuff is second to just Kershaw in the Dodgers' rotation.

Billingsley signed a 3-year contract extension prior to the 2011 season. He's due $11 million this season, $12 million in 2014 and a $14 million club option for 2015 ($3 million buyout). He's due at least $26 million for the next two seasons. It's a solid price for a solid No. 3 starter with No. 2 ability.

All things being equal, I'd rather have Billingsley in the Dodgers' rotation than not. He has No. 2 starter ability, but pitches like a No. 4 starter at times. Still, a potential top-three of Kershaw-Greinke-Billingsley is quite appealing.

Trade percentage: < 5 percent

This doesn't even include Hyun-Jin Ryu, who isn't under contract yet. If the Dodgers do ink him to a deal -- and there's no reason to believe they wont -- he'll almost assuredly have a rotation spot.

If the Dodgers land Greinke, they will have to trade at least one of these guys. My money is on Capuano being that guy. He has the friendliest contract and the best track record of anyone not named Billingsley or odd-year Beckett. It'll be interesting to see what Ned Colletti and Co., do in the next couple months.

Photo credits

Capuano: EephusBlue, Paint the Corners

Billingsley: SD Dirk, Flickr

Dodgers post winning bid for Korean left-handed pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu

The Dodgers were rumored to be interested in Hyun-Jin Ryu, and that rumor turned out to be true. The team posted $25.7 million for the exclusive negotiating rights for the Korean lefty. The sides now have 30 days to agree to a major or minor-league deal.

Ryu, 25, will turn 26 in March and the Dodgers didn't post more money than any of us will ever know just to sign him to a minor-league deal. He'll sign a major league deal and be inserted into the rotation.

There's no great model for predicting his contract, but I'd say a 4-year deal with an average annual value of $5 to $8 million isn't out of the question.

Mike Petriello did a great job of informing the masses of Ryu in a post on Friday.

"That all said, who is Ryu? He turns 26 in March, and has been a Korean All-Star in each of his seven seasons there. In five of those years, with the exception of 2008 & 2011, he led the league in strikeouts; he’s also notable for having gone 8 1/3 innings in helping Korea to beat Cuba for the gold medal in the 2008 Olympics."

He follows that up with links and excerpts from three or four different scouting reports on Ryu.

Here's a video from April of him striking out 13 batters in a game.



Keith Law, to no one's surprise, sees him as a reliever. But he says that a lot, so take that for what it's worth.

Chad Moriyama is a little skeptical of Ryu's ability, but said he thinks he could adjust to the majors.

"A 25-year-old Tommy John survivor, the Dodgers have to be expecting him to start, and reports have him sitting between 87-92 mph with two solid average breaking balls in a curve and a slider, and a plus out-pitch in his change-up. Even the reports that like him pencil him in as a #4 or #5 type, but the Dodgers will end up paying him like a #3, and I think his profile could reach that status as he adjusts to the league"

My take? It's always nice to add a quality starting pitcher, but at this point, he's not really much better than Chris Capuano. It could be argued he isn't much better because Ryu is an unknown at this point. After Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers have a bunch of No. 3, 4 and 5 guys, and Ryu is no exception.

I'd like him more if his fastball sat consistently in the low-90s rather than the upper-80s and low-90s. His changeup seems to be his money pitch. If he can lock down one of the other pitches -- his slider or curveball -- I'd feel better about him being more than just a back-of-the-rotation starter.

There's also the question of where he fits in among the Dodgers' top prospects. I'm going to publish my Top 50 hopefully before the end of the year, but I'd say he's easily a Top 10 guy, but closer to No. 5 than No. 10.

The Dodgers still need to land a true No. 2 to support Kershaw. That guy is either Zack Greinke or James Shields. Before this signing, there wasn't much room in the Dodgers' 2013 rotation. With everyone expecting the team to land a legitimate second starter, the Dodgers will have to trade a starter or two -- a luxury not many teams can claim. Expect Capuano and/or Aaron Harang to be dealt this winter. But I'll have more on that in a future post.

Side note: Ryu is my favorite character in the Street Fighter series. It means absolutely nothing in the context of this; just a self-serving aside by yours truly.

2012 Los Angeles Dodgers Season Review: Rotation

Aside from Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers' rotation -- despite posting decent numbers -- was generally underwhelming in 2012. September was actually the pitching staff's best month, but even if the Dodgers had made the playoffs, they didn't have the starting pitching to hang with the big boys.

Dodgers' rotation by the numbers
56-56 W-L
3.41 ERA
1.25 WHIP
8.2 H/9
0.8 HR/9
3.0 BB/9
7.5 K/9
2.51 K/BB
2 CG, 2 SHO (both by Kershaw)

Rotation

Clayton Kershaw
14-9, 2.53 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 2.89 FIP
- Kershaw wasn't as dominant as he was in 2011, but he wasn't as far off those numbers as some would lead you to believe. Kershaw still led the majors in ERA for a second consecutive season and led the majors in hits per nine innings. He also led the National League in WHIP. His slider wasn't nearly as good a pitch as it was in 2011, but his fastball improved and he made his curveball a great weapon again. In fact, his curveball was nearly twice as good as it's ever been. He was the Dodgers' most consistent performer and should take home team MVP honors (for what it's worth).
Grade: A

Chad Billingsley
10-9, 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 3.34 FIP
- Billingsley had just hit his stride before injuring his elbow in late August. It was the second time he hurt his elbow. This time, it might mean Tommy John surgery. He emerged as the Dodgers' second-best pitcher and would have been a big help in September. He had a career-low walks per nine rate and a career-best strikeout-to-walk ratio. Let's just hope his elbow recovers well enough for him to pitch in 2013. I'd be surprised if it does, though.
Grade: B

Chris Capuano
12-12, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 3.95 FIP
- Capuano was brought in to help alleviate the loss of Hiroki Kuroda, and he did an admirable job doing so. He scored career-bests in ERA, WHIP and hits per nine innings. He pitched so well that he garnered some All-Star consideration from some. I wasn't appalled by his signing, but I was still wanting Kuroda to return. He was consistent in the first half before seemingly running out of gas in the second half.
Grade: B-

Aaron Harang
10-10, 3.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 4.14 FIP
- Harang, all things being equal, was reasonably adequate for the Dodgers this season. We all remember his Dodger record nine consecutive strikeouts, but that's about all we remember. Harang's walks per nine innings and walk-to-strikeout ratio were not in line with his career numbers, accounting for a high WHIP. He's a prime candidate to be traded or sent to the bullpen come 2013.
Grade: C

Joe Blanton
2-4, 4.99 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 4.26 FIP
- Blanton came over in an August trade that sent Ryan O'Sullivan to the Phillies. I was actually a fan of this deal when it went down (though, I would have rather kept O'Sulivan), but Blanton struggled in his 10 starts as a Dodger. He's a free agent and I'd be surprised if he was re-signed.
Grade: D

Nathan Eovaldi
1-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 10.1 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 4.11 FIP
- Eovaldi began the season in Double-A -- just as he did last season -- and was recalled to fill a rotation void. He was decent in his second go-round with the Dodgers before he was traded with Scott McGough for Hanley Ramirez. Eovaldi pitched similarly in Florida, but there's still a lot of promise left in his 22-year-old arm.
Grade: C

Ted Lilly
5-1, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 3.92 FIP
- Lilly got off to a fast start before suffering what would end up being a season-ending shoulder injury in May. Before allowing eight earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start of the season, Lilly owned a 1.79 ERA and had clearly established himself as the Dodgers' third starter. He had shoulder surgery and his status for 2013 is unknown.
Grade: B-

Josh Beckett
2-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 3.61 FIP
- Beckett came over with something to prove. I'm not sure he did, but he pitched reasonably well in his one-plus month with the Dodgers. Beckett is a wild card for the Dodgers. He could be the Dodgers' No. 3 starter Opening Day.
Grade: B

Stephen Fife
0-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.1 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 4.14 FIP
- Fife, a surprise addition to the 40-man roster prior to the season, actually made some meaningful starts for the Dodgers and didn't get shelled. That qualifies as a successful season for the 25-year-old righty. Fife used a lot of smoke and mirrors to get through his starts as he didn't miss many bats.
Grade: C+

Next up: Outfielders

Photo credits
Kershaw: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue
Eovaldi: EephusBlue, Paint the Corners

CanPredictBall: Dodgers will sign Zack Greinke to mega contract this winter

Figure I should get this out there now because it's all but a sure thing. The Dodgers, which tried to acquire Zack Greinke before the July 31 trade deadline, will undoubtedly back up the Brinks truck to get the former Cy Young award winner.

With Clayton Kershaw likely heading for hip surgery that would keep him out until mid-May next season and Chad Billingsley's status uncertain (but looking better), the Dodgers are going to be short on impact starting pitchers going into the 2013 season.

That brings us to Greinke. He will be -- by far -- the best free agent starting pitcher available. With Cole Hamels signing a long-term extension with the Phillies and Matt Cain doing the same earlier this year with 'Frisco, the market is wafer-thin.

The Dodgers don't exactly have the blue chip prospects necessary to acquire an impact starter on the trade market, so I'm fully expecting the Dodgers to flex their financial muscles.

Greinke, since winning the American League Cy Young in 2009, hasn't been nearly that dominant:

• 2010 through 2012: 40-25, 3.87 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 8.6 K/9

Good numbers (really, who cares about the win-loss record?), but not $20-million-per-year good, which is what Greinke will likely earn with his next contract.

It might not be the most sound financial decision, but it's a chance I'm sure the Dodgers willing to take. The only way I see that is if another talented pitcher becomes available and the Dodgers land him.

With Kershaw not lost of the season and Billingsley's status uncertain, the Dodgers would still have a logjam at starting pitcher if they landed Greinke.

Ted Lilly is having shoulder surgery, so there's no guarantee he'll be able to help in the final year of his contract. Chris Capuano is having arguably the best season of his career, but he's struggled in the second half after a superb first half. Aaron Harang is, well, Aaron Harang. The jury is still out on Josh Beckett, but he's definitely a wild card. Still, he's not getting any younger.

If the Dodgers sign Greinke, they'd have to move at least one of these guys. Capuano would probably be easiest to move, but I'd expect the Dodgers to try to move Harang first. Lilly's no-trade clause expires after the 2012 season, but no team is going to take a chance on him after shoulder surgery. And Beckett's contract is too much to move.

It's going to take a little doing, but the way things are going in Dodgertown right now, I'd be surprised if Greinke ended up anywhere else.

Photo credit: Jninja, Wikimedia Commons

Chad Billingsley picks right time to pitch well for the Dodgers

Chad Billingsley's resurgence is quite refreshing and encouraging. The 28-year-old is throwing the way we all know he can.

The Dodgers didn't land the starting pitcher they coveted at the trade deadline (though, they later acquires Joe Blanton), but it's almost like they acquired a No. 2 in Billingsley.

He's posted some great numbers since returning from the disabled list: 34 2/3 IP, 27 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 6 BB, 23 K. Those numbers are good for a 1.56 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and a .209 batting average against. That's elite-level production.

Billingsley has shown flashes like this in the past and it's unrealistic to expect he'll be able to sustain this type of success. However, it's exactly what the Dodgers needed in the rotation at this point.

Chris Capuano, despite his fantastic outing last week, has struggled and Aaron Harang has been expectedly mediocre.

So, here's to Billingsley (and his fancy new beard) pitching well enough to help the Dodgers get to the postseason.

Photo credit: SD Dirk, Flickr