Dodgers don't really need another starting pitcher with in-house options

All too predictably, one of the other teams overpaid for Masahiro Tanaka, and he took the money. The Dodgers did the right thing here, saying we’ll pay "X" number of dollars, but no more (where x is probably around six years, $120 million + $20 million release fee).

Given his fastball velocity (good, but not elite) and past workload, the Dodgers harbored substantial questions about how well Tanaka will do in the majors and for how long he will be able to pitch well. The Yankees are pretty likely to suffer the "Winner's Curse" in this auction. Read General Manager Ned Colletti say something smart.

"We had a value to the player and that's where we went. The value of a player involves a lot of factors -- needs, strengths and weaknesses. We put a certain value on the player and when it went beyond that, we knew we weren't going to get the player. We understand that's how the process works."

The Dodgers only had so much use for ho they viewed Tanaka. That translated to a large, but finite number. It’s great to hear rational thought coming from the front office. What does the newly rational Colletti think about adding another starter now?

"I think we're fine either way."

I find myself agreeing, which is a little bit scary given Ned’s track record.

After the first three spots in the rotation, the Dodgers are counting on some combination of Dan Haren, Josh Beckett and minor leaguers until June -- at which point they can count on Haren, Beckett, minor leaguers and Chad Billingsley. Haren finished strong last year, and the Dodgers think it's real. For today, let’s just say he’ll be at least OK and focus on the No. 5 starter.  If the Dodgers keep with the standard routine, they need about 30 starts if those top four stay healthy.

Given their respective injuries, I see about a 35 percent chance of Beckett contributing and an 85 percent chance for Billingsley (starting sometime between May and September). The second half of the season, though, is also when trades tend to happen and prospects tend to be ready. So, the Dodgers will have plenty of options in the second half: I’m looking at you Zach Lee and Ross Stripling (pictured). I don’t get the fuss about Chris Reed, as I doubt he’ll work out in the short-term.

If the Dodgers roll with Stephen Fife in the no-Beckett scenario, and he puts up the 4.50 ERA we expect from him, the Dodgers still probably win seven or eight of those first 15 games when the No. 5 starter is used. If they sign a Bronson Arroyo-type, we might get closer to a 4.10 ERA there, and probably still win eight of those games.

Admittedly, Arroyo will stay in longer and save the bullpen about 20-30 innings. Saving the bullpen actually decreases the chance of winning these games since the bullpen is generally better than him, but presumably increases the chance of winning games later in the year.  Being better than Fife, but not letting the bullpen take over in the sixth inning, it about balances out so the two options both have relatively the same expectation.

The problem with signing Arroyo or somebody like him is you cannot send him to the bullpen or the minors, or start him every other time if you decide you'd rather go a different route. With the four outfielder situation, you can rotate them all through and keep them relatively happy; veteran starting pitchers are not like that.

That's why the Dodgers were in pursuit of Tanaka. If the guy you get is a clear upgrade, then it's problem solved. Haren is the No. 5, while Beckett and Billingsley on "rehab assignment" until needed and ready. And critically, the postseason rotation becomes stronger. But if you sign a "meh" starter, all you've done is create drama. Poor Ted Lilly's panties are still in a bunch over the disrespect the Dodgers dealt him last year when he was in the situation of veteran starter on the roster, but one who was not really needed to start.

The Dodgers are right now so much better, talent-wise, than anybody else in the NL West. They should run away with the division unless things break really poorly for them. They can stand to throw out the "B" team 15 times this season, if everyone is healthy.

If they were really smart about it, they should be planning workloads, with the expectation of playing through October, for their top guys. Pull Clayton Kershaw early in a blowout, even if he's cruising; let lesser relievers get the 1-inning, 3-run saves, etc.

Many people in sports refuse to coast because they will regret it too much if it turns out they missed the playoffs by a small margin, or because they don't feel like they can "turn it on" and off. The way the Cardinals handled their young pitching last year was a nice example.

They didn't work any one guy as hard as they could because they knew the next best option was still OK and because they knew they had a good chance of wanting Michael Wacha, et al, to be at their strongest in September and October.

If the Dodgers want sign another starter, that's their prerogative -- but they don't exactly "need" one.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers' minor-league coaching staffs have a lot of MLB experience

The Dodgers made a number of changes in the minor-league coaching ranks and announced said changes on Sunday.

There was a vacancy at the Triple-A level after former Albuquerque Isotopes' manager Lorenzo Bundy was promoted to third base coach. The Dodgers filled that hole with a former Major League catcher. There are new managers at every level of the Dodgers' minor-league system (save the Dominican Summer League).

Triple-A Albuquerque
Manager: Damon Berryhill
Hitting coach: Franklin Stubbs
Pitching coach: Glenn Dishman

Double-A Chattanooga
Manager: Razor Shines
Hitting coach: Shawn Wooten
Pitching coach: Scott Radinsky

High-A Rancho Cucamonga
Manager: P.J. Forbes
Hitting coach: Mike Eylward
Pitching coach: Matt Herges

Low-A Great Lakes
Manager: Bill Haselman
Hitting coach: Johnny Washington
Pitching coach: Bill Simas



Pioneer League Ogden
Manager: Lee Tinsley
Hitting coach: Leo Garcia
Pitching coach: Greg Sabat

Arizona League Dodgers
Manager: John Shoemaker
Hitting coach: Henry Cruz
Pitching coach: Hector Berrios

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The most interesting move is Berryhill jumping from the short-season ball to the highest level of the minors. Berryhill managed Ogden for the last five years. He guided the Raptors to four playoff appearances. He's a former catcher, so there's no doubt he has the smarts for the job He's a fine choice to replace Bundy.

Stubbs returns as Isotopes' hitting coach. Last season was his first with club and sixth with the organization. He should have a good opportunity to work with Joc Pederson. Dishman has the unenviable position as the Isotopes' pitching coach. But it's his fourth year in that position, so he must be doing something right. Maybe he can make Zach Lee's stay a little more enjoyable than is anticipated.

Shines earned a promotion from Low-A to Double-A, where he figures to manage some familiar faces. He managed the Loons last season to the playoffs. His son Devin Shines is an outfielder in the organization.

Wooten, a former major leaguer most notably with Anaheim, will have the task of making guys like Scott Schebler and Darnell Sweeney into better hitting prospects. Former Dodger Radinsky takes over as the team's pitching coach. He figures to work with some of the better Dodger pitching prospects in 2014, including guys like Onelki Garcia, Chris Reed and Ross Stripling.

Forbes takes over for Carlos Subero and could have the most talent of any Dodger minor-league manager. He should have Corey Seager and Julio Urias to start the season, as well as Chris Anderson and Tom Windle.

Eylward gets bumped up from Great Lakes, where he was the hitting coach, to Rancho Cucamonga, where he will be the hitting coach. Herges returns third season as the Quakes' pitching coach.

Haselman managed the Inland Empire 66ers (Angels' affiliate and former Dodgers' affiliate) the last two seasons. He went to UCLA.

Washington was the Quakes' hitting coach this past season and also was the Glendale Desert Dogs' (Arizona Fall League) hitting coach in 2013. Simas returns for his second campaign as the Loons' pitching coach.

Tinsley is coming over from the Cubs for his first year with the organization. He played 14 years in the big leagues. Shoemaker has been with the Dodgers' organization in some capacity since 1977.

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Overall, some really nice hires. If these guys can continue to develop and improve the prospects through their respective minor-league journeys, then their work will be done.

Daniel Murphy-for-Chris Reed deal could make sense for Dodgers, Mets

Most Dodger fans are expecting Juan Uribe to return on a 1- or 2-year deal. As the best free agent third baseman available, Uribe has every right to test the market (he'd be foolish not to).

But the Dodgers can't wait around forever. It seems Uribe is holding up the Dodgers' offseason moves to some degree -- something that seems highly unlikely just a year ago. The White Sox are (or aren't interested), as are (or aren't) the Marlins.

I've pondered trades for Chase Headley, Will Middlebrooks and Aramis Ramirez -- none of which seem too likely. So, if Uribe or any of these three don't man the hot corner for the Dodgers in 2014, perhaps a second baseman could.

No, I'm not talking about Alexander Guerrero. I'm talking about a player I've seen suggested by some over the last year-plus -- the Mets' Daniel Murphy.

Murphy is far from ideal to play third base for the Dodgers, but he's better than some might expect (myself included).

In limited time (220 2/3 innings), he's posted a 7.2 UZR/150 and a +2 defensive runs saved number. Not bad, but with David Wright in New York, there wasn't much playing time to be had there. That works out to about 25 games played, and he hasn't played the position since 2011, but it also seems like a worthwhile risk. If he's athletic enough to play second, he's athletic enough to play third. His arm is the biggest question mark. If he can make the throw consistently, he should be decent enough defensively. He won't be Uribe there (though, he'd probably have better range), but he'd be solid.

Conversely, Murphy is one of the worst defensvie second basemen in the league, posting a career -7.3 UZR/150 and -26 DRS in more than 2,600 innings. While his bat plays better at the position, his glove plays better at third -- and that's good news for the Dodgers.

Murphy isn't a great hitter and doesn't walk particularly much. His on-base percentage is tied to his batting average. If he isn't hitting, he isn't getting on base. His 6.1 percent career walk rate leaves some to be desired. But at least he doesn't strike out at a ridiculous rate (13 percent).

His .424 career slugging percentage isn't great, but it's somewhat passable for a third baseman. Considering some of the names the Dodgers have thrown out there in recent years, he'd be a considerable upgrade.

Murphy, 29 in April, has a little pop, as he hit a career-high 13 home runs in 2013 and smacked 38 doubles. He's posted above-average OPS+ numbers in all but one year of his career (96 in 2009), so the potential for some extra base hit ability is there.

Steamer and Oliver projections have him posting less than favorable stat lines:

Steamer

.280/.323/.408, 8 HR, .127 ISO

Oliver

.283/.324/.406, 10 HR, .123 ISO

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I'd bet on a similar stat line he put up in 2013. He's a solid -- if unspectacular -- player. He probably wouldn't be the difference between the Dodgers winning and losing a World Series, but he'd be a nice alternative if the Dodgers don't bring back Uribe. He also seems like a more feasible acquisition rather than a guy like Headley.

I'm thinking Chris Reed gets a deal done. Others in the industry obviously like Reed more than I do, so I'm thinking a Top 10 pitching prospect in the Dodgers' system would be enough to land Murphy from the Mets.

The Mets are reportedly wanting Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers for Ike Davis. A team can never have enough pitching, and Reed could very well make his Major League debut in 2014.

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The Dodgers and Mets made a trade on Thursday. New York sent right-handed pitcher Seth Rosin to LA for cash considerations.

The 25-year-old was selected by the Mets (from the Phillies) in Thursday's Rule 5 Draft. The Dodgers made no other Rule 5 moves or lost anyone from their system.

Rosin is a big guy -- 6'5, 250 pounds -- and projects as a middle reliever. Because he was a Rule 5 pick, he'll need to remain on the Dodger active roster for the entire season. If not, he'll need to be offered back to the Mets for $25,000. The Dodgers had to pay $50,000 to get him, plus whatever extra they're giving the Mets.

With the Dodgers needing a long reliever, Rosin might fit that bill. They were interested in Jamey Wright at the Winter Meetings, and he has yet to decide on the Dodgers or the Rays. If Wright goes back to Tampa, Rosin's chances of sticking improve dramatically.

The Phillies tried Rosin as a starter in the minors in 2013 with not much success. He posted a 4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 6.8 K/9. Rosin is surprisingly adept at throwing strikes, something that eludes most pitchers who are available in the Rule 5. His career walk rate is 2.7 per nine innings. Couple that with an 8.3 K/9 in his career and you have the makings of a solid reliever.

From Phuture Phillies (May 2013):

"Rosin was a 2010 4th round pick by the San Francisco Giants out of the University of Minnesota. In college his fastball worked 91-92 touching 94, though the summer before he touched 96 on the Cape. His secondary offering were fringy and most scouts thought he belonged in the bullpen possibly in a high leverage role. The Giants moved him to the bullpen part time after drafting him, but after acquiring him in the Hunter Pence trade the Phillies moved him back to the rotation."

He's a flyball pitcher, so it appears Dodger Stadium is a good place for him. But he's never thrown a pitch beyond Double-A, so it remains to be seen how he performs in the majors (if the Dodgers keep him around that long).

It's a good gamble for the Dodgers to make. If Rosin is close to replacement level, that'll be just fine.

Photo credit: slgckgc, Flickr

Dodgers' Winter Meetings shopping list: Starting pitcher - Tanaka (or bust), Price, Garza

In the second of a four-part series, I look at who and what the Dodgers should be looking for when Monday's Winter Meetings come 'round.

I looked at third base on Friday, and they certainly won't need a shortstop if the rumors of a Hanley Ramirez contract extension are true (pretty sure they are).

• Third base
• Starting pitcher
• Bench pieces
• Left-handed RP and/or power right-handed RP

Masahiro Tanaka

There's really only one starting pitcher the Dodgers should be in on -- Tanaka. With the new posting system between Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball seemingly close, it may not be up to the Dodgers whether they want to go after Tanaka.

His parent club Rakuten Golden Eagles are said to be hesitant to post him because they'd only get $20 million in a posting fee.

All the money in the world couldn't change this fact. Under the new rules, MLB teams can post a maximum of $20 million for players posted by NPB clubs. If Tanaka isn't posted, he won't be a free agent until after the 2015 season. The Golden Eagles could choose to post him next winter if they want, but they also risk a year of taxing Japanese league pitching on the 25-year-old's arm. It's a gamble, but a gamble that might be worth it because he's the best pitcher in Japan.

I've written extensively about Tanaka here and at Yahoo Sports, so my thoughts should be well-known. I want the Dodgers to get this guy. I believe he's their No. 1 offseason target and would slot in quite nicely as the No. 4 starter (for now).

If he is posted, the Dodgers -- and probably 10-15 other teams (at least) -- will post $20 million to negotiate with him. In the end, the Dodgers should be able to beat out the likes of the Yankees, Cubs and Rangers. I predict a 6-year, $108 million deal.

David Price

Price might be the second-best left-handed pitcher in the game (behind that Clayton Kershaw fella). So, why am I hesitant for the Dodgers to go after him?

I wrote about it at Yahoo in October. Basically, the Dodgers would likely have to give up one of Corey Seager or Julio Urias, plus a combination of Joc Pederson, Zach Lee, Chris Reed and Chris Withrow. It just doesn't seem to make that much sense

Price is a luxury at this point, as is Tanaka. The difference is, Price would cost prospects, and the Dodgers seem hellbent on preserving the system (which is great).

The former Cy Young award winner will get traded this winter, it's just a matter of where he lands. After Robinson Cano signed his mega contract with the Mariners, I'd put my money on them. If they offer Taijuan Walker in a package for Price, there's almost no way the Dodgers could beat that.

Matt Garza

If the Dodgers must go the "real" free agent route, I guess Garza would be the best option. He struggled after being dealt from the Cubs to the Rangers, but he's a quality pitcher. He won't be worth whatever contract he gets, but he'll be a solid No. 3-4 starter for the next four-plus years.

The Garza market should heat up after Price is traded and it's determined whether Tanaka is posted. Then, he could be the most attractive free agent starter because there's no draft pick compensation tied to him like there is with Ervin Santna and Ubaldo Jimenez.

I wrote about starting pitcher options last month as well. They're not pretty.

Photo credit:WKnight94, Wikimedia Commons

Analyzing Baseball America's Dodgers' Top 10 prospects list for 2014

Baseball America is in full prospect-ranking season, and the Dodgers' Top 10 list officially drops online Monday.

However, the print publication (yes, print media still exist) came out on Tuesday to give us an early look at the list.

Big thanks to silverwidow99 for making the list public.

1. OF Joc Pederson

2. SS Corey Seager

3. LHP Julio Urias

4. RHP Zach Lee

5. RHP Chris Anderson

6. RHP Chris Withrow

7. 2B Alexander Guerrero

8. LHP Chris Reed

9. LHP Onelki Garcia

10. RHP Ross Stripling

I had originally planned to write a quick piece predicting the list, but I waited to long.

After a strong 2013 and winter ball season, Pederson lands at No. 1 -- and I like it. He's now established as a Top 50 prospect, and probably closer to Top 30.

Seager has the most potential of anyone on this list, especially if he's able to stick at shortstop (which he probably won't).

Yes, even more potential than Urias, but that's no knock on the 17-year-old. He was great in his professional debut.

Baseball America doesn't factor in service time into its prospect status, hence the inclusion of Withrow.

No. 8-10 are pretty interchangeable, although, I think Stripling deserves to be a bit higher.

The only ranking I question is Guerrero at No. 7. I get it, BA isn't particularly high on Guerrero. But one would think a potentially plus bat at a traditionally glove-first position has to be a Top 5 ranking in this system. Remember, they ranked Hyun-Jin Ryu at No. 1 heading into 2013, so they aren't averse to ranking older, international prospects high on their lists.

The ranking says a little about Guerrero and more about BA's intel, which is usually pretty good. I have a better feeling about Guerrero's future and am inclined to trust the Dodgers' scouting department (and yes, my opinion is obviously biased). After all, they've hit on their last three big international signings -- Hiroki Kuroda, Yasiel Puig and Ryu.

The Dodgers' system is pretty top-heavy, as evidenced by this list. I'm shooting for sometime in the next six weeks to unveil my Top 50 Dodger prospects. Admittedly, I'm waiting to see how the Masahiro Tanaka situation plays out. If he gets posted and the Dodgers sign him, he's the clear No. 1 prospect in the system.

We'll see what happens.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers' SP alternatives to signing Masahiro Tanaka aren't great

Everyone assumes the Dodgers are going to sign Masahiro Tanaka this winter. It's a reasonable assumption. But what happens if the Dodgers don't end up with the 25-year-old Japanese righty?

The new posting system, which was reportedly agreed upon before MLB pulled the offer last week, has been delayed again. Reports now say Tanaka might not be posted until the end of the year (six weeks). The Dodgers can't really sit back and wait for an unsure acquisition, unless they're going to post $100 million, pretty much assuring they'll have the right to negotiate with him.

Then again, the Yankees are desperate for starting pitching and want to keep payroll at less than $189 million to avoid a ridiculous luxury tax. The posting fee isn't included in the payroll.

Many (myself included) think David Price is option No. 2. But recent news is making me question that. 

Stan Kasten and Co., seem hell-bent on building through the farm system -- which is awesome. To acquire Price, the number of high-celing prospects going to Tampa Bay would be prohibitive with Kasten's philosophy.

So, who's next on the list?

We can cross off guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, Hiroki Kuroda and Ervin Santana off the list, as they received qualifying offers from their teams, which means the Dodgers would have to forfeit their first-round draft pick to sign either one. While both Kuroda and Santana are quality pitchers (Jimenez not so much), it just isn't worth it.

If Kuroda didn't have draft pick compensation tied to him, he'd be near the top of my list of free agent targets.

That leaves pitchers like Bronson Arroyo, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, Scott Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco and Jason Vargas available on the free agent market. Let's look at each of these guys.

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Arroyo

- Soft-tossing righty with propensity to give up home runs. Dodgers have reportedly been in contact. Don't really want him in Blue.

Colon

- On the wrong side of 30 (he'll be 41 in May) and the wrong side of 275 pounds. Had a great 2013, but can't be counted on.

Feldman

- Should be a nice cost-effective starter, but he'll be massively overpaid by a team desperate for starting pitching.

Garza

- The most talented/healthy free agent starter (and the biggest jerkstore), Garza is going to get a 4-year commitment at or more than $15 million per season. The Dodgers could afford it, but they might not want to pay it. Had interest in him in 2012.

Haren

- As a No. 5 starter, he'd be a great pickup. As a No. 4 starter, maybe not so much. Had a resurgent second half in Washington and might do well coming home.

Johnson

- Johnson has ace potential, but he's never been able to stay healthy and had a miserable year north of the border. He'll sign a pillow contract (1-year deal to re-establish value) with someone. San Diego and San Francisco are interested.

Kazmir

- Reclamation project who struck out more than a batter per inning in 2013. Cleveland would love to bring him back. More of a high-risk signing for the Dodgers.

Nolasco

- He'd be a fine No. 4 starter for the Dodgers. Problem is, there are teams lining up to give him big money on 3- and/or 4-year deals. Reports say the Padres, Phillies and Twins are in on him, as well as 'Frisco (maybe not so much now after signing Tim Hudson).

Vargas

- Pitched in Anaheim last year and was pretty decent (but not anywhere close to Zack Greinke). Angels need pitching perhaps more than any team in baseball. I'm betting he goes back there.

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As for trade targets, teams aren't exactly rushing to trade good starters. Price is out there, the Cardinals have about eleventy billion starters (but most are cost-effective and really good), and the Phillies have some high-priced hurlers they should trade, but won't (see Marlon Byrd and Carlos Ruiz signings). There's also some scuttlebutt the Mariners might trade Hisashi Iwakuma to improve offensively, but I'm not so sure the Dodgers match up that well. Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp would be logical targets for Seattle.

The Dodgers could also turn to the farm system. Zach Lee is not only the Dodger starting pitching prospect closest to the majors, he's the best. With Josh Beckett on track for opening day (we'll see about that), the Dodgers need at least one pitcher. Maybe Lee is that guy.

Stripling

Another starter close to the majors is Ross Stripling. He's similar to Lee in terms of frame, repertoire and maturity, but he might need a little more seasoning in Double-A.

Chris Reed also pitched at Double-A last season, but I'm not at all confident in him being in the rotation in 2014 (or ever, really).

Guys like 2013 draft picks Chris Anderson and Tom Windle are at least a year away from contributing in the rotation (and that's being optimistic), while Julio Urias is at least two years away.

Onelki Garcia looks like a reliever at this point and Matt Magill (or McGill, if you listen to Jim Bowden)  wasn't great in his debut. I still have faith in him, but he might be better off coming out of the bullpen in the majors. Stphen Fife and Red Patterson are extreme longshots.

No matter what the Dodgers decide to do, they'll need at least one addition to the rotation (maybe two). Chad Billingsley is due back midseason, but I'm guessing he'll get the lion's share of his work out of the bullpen when he comes back.

Photo credits

Arroyo: SD Dirk, Flickr

Stripling: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dee Gordon to play OF in winter ball in last-ditch effort to make him valuable

If the Dee Gordon era wasn't officially over yet, it is now. The shortstop (and part-time second baseman in Triple-A) will try his hand in the outfield during winter ball.

Gordon will play center field for Licey in the Dominican Republic. The team's general manager is, purely coincidentally, Manny Acta -- the man I either want to replace Don Mattingly (if he's not officially back, because that isn't totally official yet) or be his right-hand man on the bench (hat tip to Mike Petriello). But I digress.

Gordon is a good example of how volatile prospects can be. Once thought to be the next Jose Reyes (with far less power), now he's going to struggle to have a prolonged Major League career.

Many, including myself, ranked Gordon among the Dodgers' top prospects for a few years. Oops.

His speed was never a question -- dude can run. But that's the extent of his plus tools (or even close to average). The adage is, "You can't steal first base." Once again, that adage holds true.

Gordon's best game came on April 7, 2012, against the Padres. He went 3-for-4 with two walks, three stolen bases and drove in the game-winning run. That is the Dee Gordon everyone was expecting (not every night, mind you, but more often than not). His inability to adjust his game is frustrating. He obviously has a below-average bat and no power, so why not adjust and try to walk more?

If Gordon could even get on base at a .330 clip, he'd be a top 10 shortstop in baseball because he could wreak havoc on the basepaths. He'd steal 50-plus bases with ease. Alas, he did not compensate for his poor bat by walking more, putting himself in this position.

I wrote in January moving Gordon off shortstop would be a bad idea. Now, it's almost a necessity.

"If Gordon isn't traded, he could be the Isotopes' shortstop, because it doesn't make a lot of sense to make a guy with Gordon's potential a utility player so soon.

There's little doubt Gordon could handle the outfield, but any value in his bat goes out the window with a move. His bat is barely passable at shortstop. In his first 143 games, it isn't passable.

Gordon's position won't matter if he doesn't start hitting better -- something else that isn't guaranteed."

Almost everything written above can be said right now. Gordon is a trade candidate, if any team will have him. If he is dealt this winter, he'd likely be a throw-in as part of a bigger package. Teams interested in him last winter include the Cleveland Indians and Seattle Mariners.

But back to Gordon's defense. His defense at shortstop hasn't improved, so he'll need to market himself in another way to remain a potentially valuable major leaguer.

Side note: In 3 2/3 innings at second base this year, Gordon had a defensive run saved. While an extremely small sample size, perhaps his future lies there. It'd be much better than center field.

We'll see what happens. Gordon could become a capable center fielder (because that's the only outfield spot he could conceivably play), but I'm not confident it's going to help his bat.

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Here's a full list of Dodgers playing winter ball (those who played in the organization in 2013).

Australia (Adelaide Bite)
James Baldwin
James Campbell
John Cannon
Chris Jacobs
Blake Smith

Dominican Republic
Pedro Baez (Licey)
Angel Castro (Cibaenas)
Kelvin De La Cruz (Cibaenas)
Carlos Frias (Cibao)
Dee Gordon (Licey)
Alexander Guerrero (Cibao)
Elian Herrera (Cibaenas)
Luis Vazquez (Licey)
Rafael Ynoa (Cibaenas)

Mexico
Matt Angle (Culiacan)
Juan Noriega (Los Mochis)

Puerto Rico
Freddie Cabrera (Mayaguez)
Noel Cuevas (Mayaguez)
Jose DeLeon (Caguas)
Jon Garcia (Santurce)
Matt Magill (Mayaguez)

Venezuela
Eliezer Alfonzo (Magallanes)
Chili  Buss (Lara)
Elevys Gonzalez (Margarita)
Jeremy Hazelbaker (Aragua)
Luis Meza (La Guaira)
Hector Nelo (La Guaira)
Matt Palmer (Magallanes)
Red Patterson (Lara)
Joc Pederson (Lara)
Chris Reed (La Guaira)
Miguel Rojas (La Guaira)

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Corey Seager leads eight Dodgers' prospects to 2013 Arizona Fall League

The Dodgers sent eight players to the Arizona Fall League last year, including Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig. Pederson struggled mightily and Puig didn’t play due to a staph infection.

This year, the Dodgers will again send eight players, led by 2012 first-round draft pick Corey Seager. Joining him -- for now -- are catchers Pratt Maynard and Chris O’Brien, as well as outfielder BrianCavazos-Galvez. There should be four pitchers joining that quartet, which will be announced later. I can confirm Rob Rasmussen will be one of the four.

My initial prediction had Onelki Garcia, Yimi Garcia and Jarret Martin joining Rasmussen. I’m pretty sure Martin will go (hat tip to Deejaydezz, via Twitter). The other two are unknown. Chris Reed went last season and could go again. I’d like to see the Garcias get in, though.

Seager’s inclusion comes as a surprise to me, as I didn’t think he’d be eligible for the AFL.

Before last year, players had to be on the Double-A roster before Aug. 1. But now, two Low-A players or first-year draftees (signed by July 13), two High-A players and as many as three Double-A, Triple-A or young major leaguers are eligible.

Dodger prospects will play for the Glendale Desert Dogs. They’ll play their home games at Camelback Ranch, home of Dodgers’ (and White Sox’s) spring training.

The best of the best usually attend the AFL. For example, Byron Buxton will be on the Desert Dogs’ roster. Buxton is baseball’s top prospect.

However, performance isn’t always the best indicator of how these players will do going forward. Pederson had a miserable 2012 AFL season (.096/.161/.154) -- so much so that it caused some prospectors (hi, Keith Law) to rank Pederson lower in offseason lists than he should have been.

It’ll be interesting to see how Seager does against some of the game’s best. He should see ample time at shortstop. Marcus Semien is the only other true shortstop on the roster, and third base is likely to be occupied by Marlins’ 2013 first-round draft pick Colin Moran. Scouts from all over will get a look at Seager and we should have a more accurate representation of the future star.

Those in the organization think he can stick at shortstop. Those outside don’t. Perhaps some scuttlebutt from Arizona could reaffirm one opinion or the other.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin’ Kinda Blue

Dodgers have interest in Angels' 2B Howie Kendrick, but don't expect a deal

An interesting name on the trade market, first brought up by Mike Petriello, is the Angels' Howie Kendrick. The second baseman is someone the Dodgers have interest in and he'd fill a long-term need.

Petriello also wrote about the Kendrick whispers, as he called them, over at his blog today.

I'm as big a Mark Ellis fan as any Dodger blogger, but even I would jump at the chance to acquire Kendrick to upgrade the position.

Despite Eills hitting the walk-off single last night, set up by Andre Ethier and his "above-average" speed, the Dodgers could use an upgrade at second base. Ellis has been playing better of late. He's hitting .322/.362/.391 with 14 RBI in 22 July games and .415/.419/.512 during his 11-game hitting streak. I only included the number of RBIs in the first stat line because it was a surprising total to me. He's been rock solid at second base since a few hiccups earlier in the season. But just because he's playing well now doesn't mean the Dodgers should stop looking to get better.

Ellis would be a perfect complementary player to a guy like Chase Utley, but it appears he won't be traded in the next 5 1/2 hours. Kendrick is no slouch at the position defensively and is a clear upgrade offensively.

Kendrick is two years removed from being a 5-plus-win player -- a number Ellis has never posted in his career (4.3 WAR is his career-high). This year, Kendrick is worth a nearly 2 1/2 wins and has a triple slash of .301/.344/.446 with 11 home runs.and solid defense at second.

Kendrick is locked up through 2015 for a total of $18.85 million. He also has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block trades to 12 teams.

A player like this wouldn't be especially cheap in terms of prospects, but with the Angels' barren farm system and the fact they traded Scott Downs for a non-prospect and Alberto Callaspo for a former first-rounder who might not hit enough in the majors (Grant Green), the Dodgers could swoop in and pry Kendrick away.

Then again, the last time the Dodgers and Angels made a trade was 1993. I know I remember the Dodgers sending Reggie Williams south for Mike James. What a blockbuster. Before that, they hadn't traded since 1976.

With Atre Moreno's stubborn ways and apparent disdain for the Dodgers, a deal doesn't seem likely. But they just traded a nice bench piece in Callaspo to the A's -- a division rival -- so I guess anything is possible.

There are two close-to-untouchables in the Dodgers' system: Corey Seager and Julio Urias. I wouldn't move either of those kids (they're both teenagers) for anyone short of Giancarlo Stanton or, as long as we're thinking unrealistically, Manny Machado. It wouldn't take either of those kids to land Kendrick.

The Angels could use help at just about every position on the farm. Guys like Zach Lee, Joc Pederson, Ross Stripling and Chris Reed would go a long way to replenish their system.

Unless the Angels could be convinced Reed and filler would be enough for Kendrick -- they're seeking frontline, MLB-ready arms for guys like Kendrick and Erick Aybar. Makes sense, but it won't happen. Lee might be the closest thing to that want.

Preferably, I'd rather the Dodgers make a guy like Chris Reed the centerpiece, but I'm not sure the Angels' brass would feel the same way.

As big a Lee guy as I am (had him ranked the team's No. 1 prospect since the start of the 2012 season), I'd think for a long time about including him to get Kendrick. That's hard for me to write.

It'd probably take only one top five guy and some filler to land Kendrick. At this rate, I wouldn't be terribly opposed to it. I see big things for the Dodgers going forward, and having another proverbial round in the chamber never hurts.

With the Dodgers landing Brian Wilson on Tuesday, I could see another trade for a reliever, but it's not as likely now. Instead, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Dodgers stood pat today.

One thing's for sure -- they probably won't make a blockbuster-type move -- at least, not today.

Photo credit: Eric Enfermero, Wikimedia Commons

My 2013 Los Angeles Dodgers midseason Top 25 prospects

With the Major League Baseball season more than half over, it's time to unveil my midseason Top 25 Dodgers' prospect list.

There are some new faces, some young faces (Julio Urias, right) and some players who have broken out. There are also some who have fallen from their preseason rank. There wasn't as much an infusion of talent as there was in last year's midseason Top 25.

My top prospect might surprise some folks, but I've been on the Zach Lee bandwagon since last year.

Eligiblity

All players who have not reached 50 innings pitched, 130 at-bats in the Major Leagues and have less than 45 days of pre-Sept. 1 service time are eligible for this list.

Numbers in parenthesis are the player's rank in my preseason Top 50.

1. Zach Lee, RHP (1)

Started: Double-A Chattanooga

Current location: Chattanooga

- Lee is having a fantastic season as a 21-year-old in Double-A -- something for which he doesn’t get enough recognition. Lee is second on the Lookouts in innings pitched (98 2/3) and ERA (3.01) and has improved his strikeouts per nine innings rate to what would be a career-high if the season ended today (8.2). His secondary offerings have helped to improve that rate. Director of Player Development DeJon Watson said Lee’s slider has been the most improved and his curveball is tighter. For the rest of the season, I’d like to see him build more stamina and go later into games, as he’s averaging just 5.4 innings per start.

2. Corey Seager, SS (3, +1)

Started: Low-A Great Lakes

Current location: Great Lakes

- Seager has established himself as the team’s best hitting prospect and the best prospect in many others’ eyes. Despite fighting through a hamstring injury, he’s still hitting a .300/.382/.490 with eight home runs, 43 RBI and an .872 OPS -- all while playing a respectable shortstop. Watson said “He’s a shortstop, he’s staying at shortstop, he’s playing it well and he’s really just stabilizing the infield defense whenever he gets in the lineup.” So, I guess he’s a shortstop. I’m still not 100 percent sold, but if he can remain at short, his value increases exponentially.

3. Joc Pederson, CF (5, +2)

Started: Double-A Chattanooga

Current location: Chattanooga

- Pederson got off to a blazing start this season and, as one of the youngest hitters in the Southern League, is having a fantastic season. He represented the Dodgers at the Futures Game (1-for-1, walk, run scored) and was one of eight Lookouts named to the Southern League All-Star team. His .296/.386/.516 triple slash is impressive. His 14 home runs and 19 doubles are impressive. But most impressive is his 26-for-29 stolen base rate. He’s improved every aspect of his game, improving his power, his baserunning and his defense. He’s OPSing .10 points fewer than this season than he did in the California League last year. Pederson is now considered by most a legitimate starting outfield prospect thanks to his average-to-solid-average tools across the board.

4. Ross Stripling, RHP (11, +7)

Started: High-A Rancho Cucamonga

Current location: Chattanooga

- Stripling began the season with the Quakes, and I actually got to see him in person. He had one of his worst starts of the season that night, but he was promoted to the Lookouts one start after I saw him in early May. He’s been awfully impressive at Double-A and the 23-year-old has established himself as a legitimate prospect. Stripling’s velocity has remained consistent and in the 90-94 MPH range. His curveball is as good as always and his changeup has improved since last season. He’s also added a legit fourth pitch in his slider. He should finish out the season at Double-A and have a shot at a Major League roster spot when the Dodgers break camp in 2014.

5. Julio Urias, LHP (25, +20)

Started: Low-A Great Lakes
Current location: Great Lakes

- Urias surprisingly made his full-season debut at the ripe old age of 16, and he’s been nothing but fantastic. In his first 33 1/3 innings, he has a 2.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.6 H/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 10.5 K/9.  He’s nothing short of amazing. He’s also bigger than the 5’11, 160 at which he’s listed. He’s closer to 6’1, 180 pounds. He owns an 88-92 MPH that has touched 93-95 MPH in every single start. He gets a little natural arm-side run. His changeup is his best secondary offering, grading as plus in the future. He also has a curveball that he throws on two different planes. One looks like a traditional 11-5 curve, one looks like a sharper, tighter curve that resembles a slider. Urias is a great prospect and should rank higher on this list as he matures.

6. Chris Anderson, RHP (NR)

Started: Low-A Great Lakes
Current location: Great Lakes

- Anderson was the Dodgers’ first-round pick in 2013 and made quite a statement in his debut. The University of Jacksonville product has a low-90s fastball that he can sink. He can also run it up to 97-98 MPH on occasion, as he’s already done in his first action in professional baseball. He has a slider that sits in the low-to-mid-80s that could be a swing-and-miss pitch and an average changeup. He also has a “show me” curveball that he might need if he’s to remain a starter -- and there’s no reason to believe otherwise.

7. Chris Reed, LHP (8, +1)

Started: Double-A Chattanooga
Current location: Chattanooga

- Reed has always been a “favorite” of mine and, despite a slow start, posted some solid numbers in the first half. I still see Reed ending up in the bullpen, but it’s nice to see his stamina improving. He isn’t striking out as many batters as in years past, but he’s compensating for it by getting more ground ball outs. His 89-92 MPH fastball is his main weapon. He also has a low-t-mid-80s slider that used to get more swings and misses. His changeup is fringy, which is why I think he’ll eventually end up as a reliever.

8. Matt Magill, RHP (6, -2)

Started: Triple-A Albuquerque
Current location: Albuquerque

- The first prospect to fall from his preseason rank, Magill had an up-and-down season so far. He made him MLB debut, which was great. Other than that, he had a rough go at it in the majors. He’s handled the extreme hitter-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League well enough. His fastball is an 88-92 MPH offering that touches 94 at times. His velocity hasn’t been the issue. His command has been bad this season, causing him to walk more hitters (28) than he’s struck out (26) in the majors. His slider is still his out pitch and sits in the low-80s. He also has a changeup that he should probably throw a little more and feel for a curveball.

9. Rob Rasmussen, LHP (22, +13)

Started: Double-A Chattanooga
Current location: Triple-A Albuquerque

- Rasmussen joined the Dodgers when they sent John Ely to the Astros during the winter. He began the season with the Lookouts before being promoted to Albuquerque last month. He has an 88-92 MPH fastball, a curveball, slider and changeup. His frame is such that it isn’t conducive to starting long-term, but he’s been great in the minors this season. He has an outside shot of contributing this season, but more likely next season. At worst, he's a middle reliever in the majors.

10. Chris Withrow, RHP (21, +11)

Started: Triple-A Albuquerque
Current location: Los Angeles Dodgers

- Withrow was converted to the bullpen late last season and that’s where he’ll remain. His mid-90s fastball that touches 98 MPH is his best weapon. He also has a swing-and-miss slider and he recently rediscovered his curveball, which could make him even more dangerous. He could be a fixture in the ‘pen going forward.

11. Onelki Garcia, LHP (7, -4)

Started: Double-A Chattanooga
Current location: Chattanooga

- Garcia had a rough go early on, landing on the disabled list. He’s pitched primarily out of the bullpen, which is somewhat disappointing. The 23-year-old Cuban fireballer is posting an impressive 9.5 K/9, but he’s also walking 6.2 per nine innings, which hurts him as a starter in the long run. He still has a nasty low-90s fastball and upper-70s curveball. He also has a fringy changeup that he’ll need to develop if he wants to be a starter.

12. Jose Dominguez, RHP (23, +11)

Started: Double-A Chattanooga
Current location: Los Angeles Dodgers

- Dominguez had to serve a 25-game suspension to begin the season, but he’s been nails ever since. He earned a promotion from Double-A to Triple-A before the Dodgers recalled him to make his debut this season. He’s averaging 98.4 MPH on his fastball in the majors. He routinely touches triple digits with it and it’s by far the best fastball in the system. He also has a nasty-at-times slider and a surprisingly effective changeup. He has late-inning reliever stuff, it just remains to be seen if he can put it all together consistently.

13. Duke von Schamann, RHP (31, +18)

Started: High-A Rancho Cucamonga
Current location: Double-A Chattanooga

- The big right-hander has gone from system depth at starting pitcher to legitimate pitching prospect. He isn’t going to make a living by striking hitters out, but von Schamann possesses good control, a feel for pitching and an 88-91 MPH sinker that allows him to get plenty of grounds. He also has a feel for a slider and a changeup. He should remain at Chattanooga the rest of the season and possibly next season.

14. Yimi Garcia, RHP (19, +5)

Started: Double-A Chattanooga
Current location: Chattanooga

-  Garcia has established himself as the Lookouts’ closer and a potential bullpen option for the Dodgers in 2014. Garcia has a low-90s fastball and a slider that’s helped him accumulate an 11.6 K/9 this season. The 22-year-old has an impressive 6.5 K/BB rate, which should help him have a Major League career. He’s given up eight home runs this season after allowing five in his first four minor-league seasons, so that’s something to keep an eye on going forward.

15. Alex Castellanos, OF (12, -3)

Started: Triple-A Albuquerque
Current location: Albuquerque

- Castellanos has turned it on of late, but he’s probably nothing more than a fifth outfielder at this point (fourth at best). He has a quick bat, but no defined position. It finally seems the Dodgers have given up on him as an infielder, which is probably for the best. He probably won’t get a chance to show what he can do in the majors with the Dodgers, so a trade is probably his best bet for an MLB future.

16. Jesmuel Valentin, SS/2B (13, -3)

Started: Low-A Great Lakes
Current location: Pioneer League Ogden

- Valentin began his season at Great Lakes, which was aggressive. Since then, he’s been demoted to Ogden, which isn’t an indictment of his abilities. With Seager manning shortstop in Midland, it makes the most sense for Valentin to play every day in the Pioneer League. Valentin has struggled a bit this season, but he’s still showing good on-base ability. He’s also one of the best defensive players in the Dodgers’ system.

17. Jon Garcia, RF (48, +31)

Started: High-A Rancho Cucamonga
Current location: Double-A Chattanooga

- The third Garcia to check in, Jonathan began the season repeating the California League. He hit so well he was promoted to Double-A. With Blake Smith switching to the bullpen and Yasiel Puig being promoted to the majors, the Lookouts needed another outfielder. He’s only played 14 games, so it’s too early to tell how he’s truly handling advanced pitching. His play has catapulted him back into the prospect discussion. He has good raw power and a cannon for an arm in right field.

18. Scott Schebler, OF (37, +19)

Started: High-A Rancho Cucamonga
Current location: Rancho Cucamonga

- Schebler has been the biggest breakout of prospect in the system so far. Yes, he’s playing in the Cal League, but he’s also showing every facet of his game. He’s a solid defender in the corners, he’s hitting for power and showing some speed. He’s posting reverse platoon splits and doesn’t have that big a split when it comes to home and away games. He’s a guy to watch the rest of the season. The 22-year-old will need to prove his numbers just aren’t a product of his environment.

19. Darnell Sweeney, SS (18, -1)

Started: High-A Rancho Cucamonga
Current location: Rancho Cucamonga

- Sweeney hit for the cycle in a game during the first half, but he hasn’t been able to get over the “mediocre” hump so far. While he has the ability to play shortstop, he has committed 29 errors this season. He has a decent even arm and good range, so he could stick at short for awhile. He’s also hit better from the right side than the left. He might consider giving up switch-hitting if he doesn’t improve from the left side. His walk rate has fallen and his strike rate risen, which isn’t a good combination. Still, he’s a decent prospect who could improve in the second half.

20. Miguel Sulbaran, LHP (30, +10)

Started: Low-A Great Lakes
Current location: Great Lakes

- Overshadowed by Urias, the 19-year-old Sulbaran has posted solid numbers in his first full season at Great Lakes. He’s not the strikeout pitcher Urias is, but he records his fair share of outs. He’s 5’10, 185 pounds, so it remains to be seen if he can stick in the rotation. If not, he should be able to carve out a career as a left-handed reliever with an 88-91 MPH fastball, a low-70s curveball, a potentially plus changeup and a “show me” slider.

21. Jharel Cotton, RHP (43, +22)

Started: Low-A Great Lakes
Current location: Double-A Chattanooga

- Cotton, my choice for sleeper prospect back in January, had a nice showing with the Loons before being promoted to Double-A. Since being promoted, Cotton has pitched exclusively out of the bullpen. His fastball is an 88-90 MPH that touches 92 MPH, a potentially plus changeup and a fringy slider. While his future likely lies in the ‘pen, the Dodgers shouldn’t give up on him as a starter just yet.

22. Alex Santana, 3B (28, +6)

Started: Pioneer League Ogden
Current location: Ogden

- It’s a small sample size, but Santana is off to a much better start to the 2013 season compared to the numbers he posted in 2012. His .907 OPS comes with the caveat that he’s playing in an extreme hitter’s haven, but he also has ability as a former second-round draft pick. Santana has big power potential, but also a lot of swing-and-miss. Still, he’s just 19 and in his third minor-league season. He should continue to improve even more.

23. Zachary Bird, RHP (14, -9)

Started: Low-A Great Lakes
Current location: Pioneer League Ogden

- Bird was a steal in the 2012 draft and was given an aggressive assignment in Low-A. However, Bird didn’t handle it too well, posting an ugly 7.7 BB/9. He was demoted to Ogden and hasn’t fared much better. He’s only 18, so there’s still plenty of time for him to figure things out. He still projects as starter going forward.

24. Noel Cuevas, CF/LF (NR)

Started: High-A Rancho Cucamonga
Current location: Rancho Cucamonga

- Cuevas was a surprise draft signee in 2011 and took a little while to break through, but he’s done so this season. While Cuevas doesn’t have a lot of power potential, he does everything else well. He has enough range to stick in center field and enough arm for the position. When I saw him in person in May, he was tracking down all sorts of fly balls as the Quakes’ center fielder. He also has plus speed, swiping 22 bases so far. The 21-year-old should see Chattanooga  in 2014.

25. O’Koyea Dickson, 1B (20, -5)

Started: High-A Rancho Cucamonga
Current location: Rancho Cucamonga

- Dickson hasn’t hit for as much power as expected (10 home runs), but he’s been nothing if not consistent for the Quakes this season. He does have 25 doubles, which is nice. While his strikeout rate has decreased from last season, so has his walk rate. As a guy who’s going to make the majors based solely on his bat, he needs to get that walk rate back to 10 percent while also increasing his slugging. He’s limited to first base defensively despite logging five games at third base and one in left field this season.

The next five (in alphabetical order): Cody Bellinger, Justin Chigbogu, Victor Gonzalez, Garrett Gould, Jarret Martin

Graduated: Yasiel Puig (2), Hyun-Jin Ryu (4), Paco Rodriguez (10), Tim Federowicz (26), Scott Van Slyke (44)
Dropped out of Top 25: Garrett Gould (9), Blake Smith (15), Andres Santiago (18), Jesus Valdez (24)
Moved into Top 25: Anderson (NR to 6), von Schamann (31 to 13), J. Garcia (48 to 17), Schebler (37 to 18), Sulbaran (30 to 20), Cotton (43 to 21), Santana (28 to 22), Cuevas (NR to 24)
Traded: Steve Ames (16), Angel Sanchez (36), Josh Wall (NR)
Biggest riser: J. Garcia (48 to 17)
Biggest faller: Smith (15 to 50)

This year's draft wasn't particularly strong, which is why only one player from the class made the midseason Top 25. The team traded three prospects, but none of them projected as more than relievers at the next level. This system is top-heavy and should get a boost from the international signings of the last two years.

Photo credits

Urias (courtesy): Nick Anderson, Great Lakes Loons
Anderson (courtesy): Ali Messick, Great Lakes Loons
All others: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue