Daniel Murphy-for-Chris Reed deal could make sense for Dodgers, Mets

Most Dodger fans are expecting Juan Uribe to return on a 1- or 2-year deal. As the best free agent third baseman available, Uribe has every right to test the market (he'd be foolish not to).

But the Dodgers can't wait around forever. It seems Uribe is holding up the Dodgers' offseason moves to some degree -- something that seems highly unlikely just a year ago. The White Sox are (or aren't interested), as are (or aren't) the Marlins.

I've pondered trades for Chase Headley, Will Middlebrooks and Aramis Ramirez -- none of which seem too likely. So, if Uribe or any of these three don't man the hot corner for the Dodgers in 2014, perhaps a second baseman could.

No, I'm not talking about Alexander Guerrero. I'm talking about a player I've seen suggested by some over the last year-plus -- the Mets' Daniel Murphy.

Murphy is far from ideal to play third base for the Dodgers, but he's better than some might expect (myself included).

In limited time (220 2/3 innings), he's posted a 7.2 UZR/150 and a +2 defensive runs saved number. Not bad, but with David Wright in New York, there wasn't much playing time to be had there. That works out to about 25 games played, and he hasn't played the position since 2011, but it also seems like a worthwhile risk. If he's athletic enough to play second, he's athletic enough to play third. His arm is the biggest question mark. If he can make the throw consistently, he should be decent enough defensively. He won't be Uribe there (though, he'd probably have better range), but he'd be solid.

Conversely, Murphy is one of the worst defensvie second basemen in the league, posting a career -7.3 UZR/150 and -26 DRS in more than 2,600 innings. While his bat plays better at the position, his glove plays better at third -- and that's good news for the Dodgers.

Murphy isn't a great hitter and doesn't walk particularly much. His on-base percentage is tied to his batting average. If he isn't hitting, he isn't getting on base. His 6.1 percent career walk rate leaves some to be desired. But at least he doesn't strike out at a ridiculous rate (13 percent).

His .424 career slugging percentage isn't great, but it's somewhat passable for a third baseman. Considering some of the names the Dodgers have thrown out there in recent years, he'd be a considerable upgrade.

Murphy, 29 in April, has a little pop, as he hit a career-high 13 home runs in 2013 and smacked 38 doubles. He's posted above-average OPS+ numbers in all but one year of his career (96 in 2009), so the potential for some extra base hit ability is there.

Steamer and Oliver projections have him posting less than favorable stat lines:

Steamer

.280/.323/.408, 8 HR, .127 ISO

Oliver

.283/.324/.406, 10 HR, .123 ISO

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I'd bet on a similar stat line he put up in 2013. He's a solid -- if unspectacular -- player. He probably wouldn't be the difference between the Dodgers winning and losing a World Series, but he'd be a nice alternative if the Dodgers don't bring back Uribe. He also seems like a more feasible acquisition rather than a guy like Headley.

I'm thinking Chris Reed gets a deal done. Others in the industry obviously like Reed more than I do, so I'm thinking a Top 10 pitching prospect in the Dodgers' system would be enough to land Murphy from the Mets.

The Mets are reportedly wanting Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers for Ike Davis. A team can never have enough pitching, and Reed could very well make his Major League debut in 2014.

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The Dodgers and Mets made a trade on Thursday. New York sent right-handed pitcher Seth Rosin to LA for cash considerations.

The 25-year-old was selected by the Mets (from the Phillies) in Thursday's Rule 5 Draft. The Dodgers made no other Rule 5 moves or lost anyone from their system.

Rosin is a big guy -- 6'5, 250 pounds -- and projects as a middle reliever. Because he was a Rule 5 pick, he'll need to remain on the Dodger active roster for the entire season. If not, he'll need to be offered back to the Mets for $25,000. The Dodgers had to pay $50,000 to get him, plus whatever extra they're giving the Mets.

With the Dodgers needing a long reliever, Rosin might fit that bill. They were interested in Jamey Wright at the Winter Meetings, and he has yet to decide on the Dodgers or the Rays. If Wright goes back to Tampa, Rosin's chances of sticking improve dramatically.

The Phillies tried Rosin as a starter in the minors in 2013 with not much success. He posted a 4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 6.8 K/9. Rosin is surprisingly adept at throwing strikes, something that eludes most pitchers who are available in the Rule 5. His career walk rate is 2.7 per nine innings. Couple that with an 8.3 K/9 in his career and you have the makings of a solid reliever.

From Phuture Phillies (May 2013):

"Rosin was a 2010 4th round pick by the San Francisco Giants out of the University of Minnesota. In college his fastball worked 91-92 touching 94, though the summer before he touched 96 on the Cape. His secondary offering were fringy and most scouts thought he belonged in the bullpen possibly in a high leverage role. The Giants moved him to the bullpen part time after drafting him, but after acquiring him in the Hunter Pence trade the Phillies moved him back to the rotation."

He's a flyball pitcher, so it appears Dodger Stadium is a good place for him. But he's never thrown a pitch beyond Double-A, so it remains to be seen how he performs in the majors (if the Dodgers keep him around that long).

It's a good gamble for the Dodgers to make. If Rosin is close to replacement level, that'll be just fine.

Photo credit: slgckgc, Flickr

Dodgers' Winter Meetings shopping list: 3B - Middlebrooks, Ramirez, Diaz?

With all the transactions this week, it's hard to believe there will be any available players when the Winter Meetings start on Monday in Orlando. We still have to get through the weekend, though.

The Dodgers have been (somewhat) surprisingly quiet this week. They officially brought back Brian Wilson on a 1-year, $10 million contract with a player option for 2015 at $10 million (plus incentives). I'm really liking that deal, as a (healthy) Wilson-Kenley Jansen back-end of the bullpen is the best in baseball.

So, what more do the Dodgers need? Here's my shopping list for the Winter Meetings (and the remainder of the offseason):

• Third baseman
• Starting pitcher
• Bench pieces
• Left-handed RP and/or power-right-handed RP

This post will look at third base, with the other positions getting examined before Monday.

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These days, it seems harder to find a quality third baseman than a quality shortstop or second baseman. There are absolutely no quality free agents after Juan Uribe. There was word on Thursday Uribe be close to returning, which wouldn't be terrible. However, I find myself (greedily) wanting an upgrade at the position.

My top target has been Chase Headley. That isn't too likely as the cost to get him could be prohibitive, especially factoring in the interdivision tax the Dodgers would have to pay.

Here's a short list of other guys who could be available:

• Brett Lawrie
• Will Middlebrooks
• Mike Moustakas
• Mike Olt
• Aramis Ramirez
• Kyle Seager

Lawrie and Seager would be the toughest to get. Both guys would likely cost Matt Kemp (in some kind of package), so don't get your hearts set on either of them.

Moustakas is almost in that category of "unlikely to be traded" as Lawrie and Seager are, especially since the Royals are contending and might not have a suitable replacement for him.

That leaves Middlebrooks and Ramirez. Of the two, I'd rather have, well, Corey Seager. But seriously, those options aren't great, but there's some good to be had.

Middlebrooks

Middlebrooks, 25, is more attractive because he's younger and better power potential than Ramirez. A former top Boston prospect, Middlebrooks hasn't fared too well.

He burst onto the scene in 2012, hitting .288/.325/.509 with 15 home runs in 286 plate appearances. His approach was exposed a bit in 2013, as he hit just .227/.271/.426 with 17 home runs in 374 plate appearances.

I like the power, I don't like the lack of plate discipline (5 percent walk rate). Something that excites me about a potential Middlebrooks acquisition is the fact Mark McGwire would have a chance to make him a better hitter. He did wonders for guys like David Freese and Yadier Molina in St. Louis, and Middlebrooks seems like the perfect guy to learn under his tutelage.

Middlebrooks was an average defender in his debut season before slipping in 2013. Still, he projects to be at least average at the position.

Despite that, the Red Sox need a legitimate outfielder to "replace" Jacoby Ellsbury. Andre Ethier might be that guy. He's good friends with Dustin Pedroia and Ethier in Fenway Park makes some sense. Boston could slide former Dodger (sigh) Shane Victorino to center field, with Ethier slotting in at right field. Also, they upgrade with Xander Bogaerts at third base while, say, re-signing Stephen Drew.

The Dodgers would have to eat a little salary in an Ethier-for-Middlebrooks swap, but the Red Sox do kinda owe the Dodgers for taking Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett in August 2012. I'm speaking in jest, but there's a little truth to that for me.

Ramirez

Ramirez is a grizzled veteran. The Brewers aren't really going anywhere next season (or the next one, or the one after that), so getting some kind of return for a 35-year-old player who doesn't factor into their future plans).

Ramirez is just one season removed from being a 5.7-win player (2012), but injuries hit him in 2013, limiting his playing time to 92 games. In those games, he was still able to hit .283/.370/.461 with 12 home runs and a 10.3 percent walk rate. When healthy, he's still a premium offensive option at third base.

Defensively, Ramirez has never been considered "plus." He's had a few good seasons with the glove (according to defensive metrics), but he should be considered generally below-average defensively at third base. His range isn't great, and with Hanley Ramirez slated to play shortstop, there could be a lot of grounders that squeak through the left side of the Dodger infield in 2014 if they acquiried Aramis.

I wrote about a possible Ramirez acquisition at Yahoo Sports in June, but that obviously didn't go down. Perhaps the Winter Meetings is the time for such a deal.

It wouldn't take a lot fo get him, as he's owed $16 million in 2014. He also has a $14 million mutual option for 2014 that includes a $4 million buyout. So, this could be a 1-year, $20 million commitment for the Dodgers. Not the best way to spend $20 million, but that also means the Dodgers wouldn't have to give up much value to get him. The Dodgers and Brewers might have to work out some kind of financial agreement with a Ramirez trade.

The Brewers' farm system is barren. The Dodgers could float them an offer of Matt Magill and O'Koyea Dickson for Ramirez and see if they bite. Magill has some potential as a No. 4 starter or reliever, while Dickson has a little power potential at first base.

Diaz

While this doesn't count as "Winter Meetings" shopping list, a guy to keep an eye on is Aledmys Diaz from Cuba. He was the 22-year-old who said he was 23 so he wouldn't be subject to MLB's international signing rules. Well, he's 23 now and could be a guy the Dodgers (and other teams) could look at. Problem is, he isn't eligible to be signed until February. I don't think the Dodgers (or any team) is going to pin its hopes on an unproven Cuban player they can't sign until February. Also, he profiles better at shortstop than third base, but the Dodgers have a little flexibility in that department.

Still, he's a guy to remember in a couple months. He could begin the season in the minors. You can never have enough talent.

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Next up: Starting pitcher (and it's really just one guy -- Masahiro Tanaka -- but I'll examine a couple other possibilities)

Photo credits

Middlebrooks: Keith Allison, Wikimedia Commons

Ramirez: Steve Paluch, Flickr

2011 Los Angeles Dodgers off-season preview: Free agent position players

This is the third in my off-season preview series. This time, I look at the free agent market for position players. There are a few huge names available, but the rest of the market is pretty barren.

Catcher

Dodger catchers under contract: A.J. Ellis, Tim Federowicz

Available free agents
Ryan Doumit, PIT
Ramon Hernandez, CIN

Yeah, the free agent market for catchers is that thin.

Doumit: He has a a $7.25 million option for 2012 with the Pirates, but it's no sure thing it'll be exercised. He's pretty brutal behind the plate, but he's also the best offensive option of the three listed. If he hits the open market, he'd be worth a look, but I don't think the Dodgers would give more than a 1-year deal at $3- or $4 million.

Hernandez: I only included Hernandez as a formality. He's a Type-A free agent, which would cost the Dodgers' their first-round draft pick. Safe to say, that isn't going to happen.

What to do?
I'd take a flier on Doumit at the right price, but an Ellis-Federowicz platoon might be best for the Dodgers in 2012. Rod Barajas is always an option.

Corner Infield

Dodger corner infielders under contract: Russell Mitchell, Jerry Sands, Juan Uribe

Available free agents
3B Wilson Betemit, DET
1B/3B Michael Cuddyer, MIN
1B Casey Kotchman, TB
1B Prince Fielder, MIL
1B Carlos Pena, CHC
1B Albert Pujols, STL
3B Aramis Ramirez, CHC

Betemit: The former Dodger could be a cheap source of quality at-bats from the hot corner. He wouldn't cost much in terms of salary.

Cuddyer: He might be the most underrated free agent on the market, which usually leads to a team overpaying for him. He's versatile (can play all the corners and even a little second base in an absolute pinch). Cuddyer followed up a mediocre 2010 with a solid 2011 season. He'll be 33 by the time the season starts, so the Dodgers might not want to invest in him.

Kotchman: He (somehow) managed an .800 OPS this season after not achieving that mark since 2007. He's a solid defender with a light bat. Sound like someone you know (James Loney)?

Fielder: He's going to be a nice consolation price to the team that loses out on Pujols. Depending on the contracts, he could end up being a better long-term investment than Pujols, despite his weight. He'd slot in right behind Matt Kemp, if the Dodgers could actually afford him. Fielder is on of the best left-handed power hitters in the game and the Dodgers have a glaring hole at the position. It makes sense, in theory. However, I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Pena: His defense has slipped, which makes his putrid batting average an even bigger glaring weakness. He's the definition of "boom or bust."

Pujols: The prize in this year's market, Pujols is still one of the most dangerous hitters in the game. Many think he'll stay in St. Louis (as I do), but he's going to command a contract in excess of $200 million. The Cubs could be hot on his trail, too. It's fortunate the Yankees and Red Sox have absolutely no room for him, or he'd be going to one of those teams. Of course, the Dodgers are the team that needs him the most, but there's that whole "money thing" again. He's the greatest hitter of the last decade-plus. He's good for another three or four years at the elite level he's playing at right now.

Ramirez: He, like Doumit, has a team option for the 2012 season. However, he can determine whether he returns to the team. Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago gives Ramirez about a 10 percent chance of returning. Ramirez is 34 but is still one of the best offensive third basemen in the game. He could get a 4-year deal on the open market. He'd be a cheaper alternative to Fielder and Pujols, but again, I wouldn't hold my breath for a big-time signing.

What to do?
Pujols and Fielder are 1 and 1a. Either would be a great signing. However, the Dodgers probably aren't in the market for either. Ramirez would be a nice consolation price, but he won't be cheap, either. The other options aren't any better the James Loney, whom the Dodgers could bring back via arbitration.

Middle Infield

Dodger middle infielders under contract: Ivan DeJesus, Dee Gordon, Justin Sellers, Uribe

Available free agents
Aaron Hill, ARI
Kelly Johnson, TOR
Jose Reyes, NYM
Jimmy Rollins, PHI

Hill: This guy is a wild card. He had a breakout 2009 season, hitting 36 home runs while scoring and driving more than 100 runs. His 2010 was good in the power department (26 HR, 22 2B), but he hit a measly .205 with a .271 on-base percentage. He was doing poorly in Toronto until getting traded to Arizona in August. He hit .315/.286/.492 with the D-Backs. He had an option declined by Arizona, but I'm not 100 percent sure he's an unrestricted free agent. If he is, he'd be a nice risk at $4 or $5 million.

Johnson: The guy traded for Hill, Johnson is also somewhat of a wild card. He's hit 21-plus home runs in back-to-back seasons and knows how to take a walk. Unfortunately, he doesn't do much else at the plate. Like Hill, he could also be a nice risk at $4 or $5 million.

Reyes and Rollins: I only mention these guys because they're big names. The Dodgers have no need for either with Gordon in fold at shortstop. The Giants, however, could be in the market for both, as they're in desperate need of a shorstop. Just something to keep an eye on.

What to do?
It could be my irrational fondness of Hill, but I'd absolutely love to see the Dodgers bring him in. They have to do something, as I don't think Ned Colletti would stand for Sellers starting Opening Day at second base. DeJesus doesn't seem to be in the Dodgers' future plans after not getting a call-up. Guys like Jamey Carroll and Aaron Miles could also be retained.

Outfield

Dodger outfielders under contract: Alex Castellanos, Andre Ethier, Jamie Hoffmann, Matt Kemp, Kyle Russell, Sands, Alfredo Silverio, Scott Van Slyke

I included Ethier and Kemp, even though they aren't under contract because there's no way the Dodgers non-tender them. The rookies are all internal options, with Hoffmann the only one to have made his debut.

Free agents available
Carlos Beltran, SF
Jonny Gomes, WAS
Josh Willingham, OAK

Beltran: Beltran could be a nice signing for some team, as he still has the potential to be a solid middle-of-the-order bat. He's a Type-A free agent, but there's a stipulation in his contract that he can't be offered arbitration. He might be better off heading back to the American League so he can be a designated hitter at times.

Gomes: He'd be a solid platoon partner for Ethier, even though the Dodgers wouldn't dare platooning him.

Willingham: The only way I bring in Willingham or Beltran is if the Dodgers are going to play Sands at first base. However, he's an intriguing option after hitting 29 home runs with the A's in 2011.

What to do?
The Dodgers are actually rather deep at the outfield positions. There are a lot of minor-league options, too. However, if the Dodgers trade Ethier, that could open them up to bringing in a guy to replace him (Beltran or Willingham). If not, they should just bring in a platoon guy (River or Gomes). I'd go with Rivera because of his ability to play first base and familiarity with the team.

Conclusion
The Dodgers would love to make a big splash with a guy like Fielder or Pujols, but I just don't see that happening. Taking a flier on a guy like Hill and grabbing a platoon outfielder could be the most realistic option for the Dodgers. If they want to land an impact bat, it'll likely have to come via trade (part V of my off-season preview series).

Next up: Free agent pitchers