Seth Rosin's chances of remaining with Dodgers better than some expect

When the Dodgers acquired right-hander Seth Rosin from the Mets, following New York selecting him in the 2013 Rule 5 Draft, not much was made about it at the time.

Rosin, 25, has never pitched above Double-A, and was just mediocre at the level in 2013 (4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, 6.8 K/9). But that was as a starting pitcher. He'll shift back to the bullpen, where he has spent a majority of his minor-league innings.

At 6'6, 250 pounds, it's hard to miss him on the field. With a low-90s fastball that touches 94 MPH, he has the velocity to succeed in the majors. He also seems to have the command to do so. His career walks per nine innings rate is 2.7. Sure, it'd probably tick up a bit in the majors, but he's adept at throwing strikes.

If Rosin were able to miss more bats consistently, he could find himself in a Major League bullpen. To make the Dodgers' bullpen, a lot of things are going to have to go in his favor.

Dodger relievers with MLB deals
J.P. Howell
Kenley Jansen
Brandon League
Chris Perez
Brian Wilson
Jamey Wright

Dodger relievers with MiLB options
Jose Dominguez
Paco Rodriguez
Chris Withrow

Barring anything unforeseen, all six of the pitchers from the first list are going to make the team in some fashion. The only conceivable way one doesn't is if League is designated for assignment.

Of the three on the second list, Rodriguez is a sure bet to be in the Dodgers' bullpen come opening day. If he weren't, that means Howell would be the team's only left-handed reliever.

Eric Stephen wrote a piece about Rosin earlier this week. He got an interesting quote from General Manager Ned Colletti.

"'I'm very interested in seeing what he can bring. Great arm, very competitive, very sharp,' (Colletti) said. 'He may be a power arm out of the pen, he may be somebody who could pitch multiple innings out of the pen, he could be a spot starter.'"

That versatility is an attractive feature to have, especially to the Dodgers, which lack a true long-reliever right now.

Colletti also had good things to say about him in Bill Plunkett's article on Baseball America on Sunday.

"'We had good reports on him,' (Colletti said). 'He's a big guy with a live arm and he's a smart kid. The day we traded for him, he finished his last final to get his degree from the University of Minnesota.

'That doesn’t speak to the baseball side but it says something about the kid.'"

This probably means absolutely nothing, but the Dodgers' 2013 first-round pick Chris Anderson is from the Minnesota area and second-rounder Tom Windle went to the University of Minnesota. Just interesting to note.

Rosin was invited to the Dodgers' Winter Development Program, the Dodgers' annual symposium-type even for prospects and young players close to the majors. If the Dodgers didn't really think Rosin had a chance to make the club, he would not have been invited.

As a Rule 5 draftee, Rosin would have to be on the active roster when the seasons start -- either on the 25-man roster or on the disabled list. If the Dodgers do not retain him, he'd be placed on waivers for any team to claim. If he goes unclaimed, he'd have to be offered back to the Phillies for $25,000. If they refuse, the Dodgers could then send him to the minor leagues. The Dodgers could also negotiate a trade with Philadelphia to keep him around. I don't see him making it that far. If he throws well in spring, the Dodgers could find a way to keep him. If he is waived, he'd surely be claimed.

As a flyball pitcher, his profile fits well in Dodger Stadium. I put a 70 percent chance he'd be cut to make room on the 40-man roster. After hearing the good things about him from the Dodgers, I'm not so certain.

A team can never have too much pitching. That adage usually holds true, unless one of those pitchers is a Rule 5 draftee.

It's a tough road ahead for Rosin, but he has a better chance of remaining in Los Angeles than it may seem. I'll say this: I'd take Rosin over league in a heartbeat.

Photo credit: woolenium, Flickr

Dodgers invite top prospects to 7th annual Winter Development Program

As they've done for seven straight years, the Dodgers are holding their Winter Development Program at Dodger Stadium, beginning Sunday.

The main goals of the program are to help Dodger minor-leaguers not only prepare for the majors, but also to prepare themselves for the off-the-field aspect of being a Major League Baseball player.

From the Dodgers' official press release:

"Fifteen of the club’s top minor league prospects will be in Los Angeles for the event, which includes seminars with Dodger staffers and workouts that focus on fundamentals, strength training and conditioning. Throughout the week, Dodger prospects will familiarize themselves with the greater Los Angeles area through social events and a community service visit to A Place Called Home, a youth center in South Los Angeles. The program is highlighted by sessions with Don Mattingly, Tommy Lasorda, Don Newcombe, Maury Wills, Eric Karros, Shawn Green, Stan Kasten and Ned Colletti and the annual Legends Dinner with Dodger alumni."

The attendees are as follows:

Pedro Baez
Chili Buss
Jose Dominguez
Yimi Garcia
Zach Lee
Matt Magill
Jarret Martin
Pratt Maynard
Chris O'Brien
Joc Pederson
Chris Reed
Miguel Rojas
Seth Rosin
Scott Schebler
Ross Stripling

Lee, Magill, Pederson and Reed all attended the 2013 Winter Development Program.

Baez, Garcia and Martin were added to the 40-man roster in November, so they were locks to be there. Lee and Schebeler were the Dodgers (and my) minor-league pitcher and player of the year, respectively.

Rosin was acquired from the Mets after they selected him from the Phillies in December's Rule 5 Draft. Stripling is the best prospect of the first-timers.

Magill threw a handful of games with the Dodgers, while Dominguez pitched briefly with them last season before suffering a quad injury. Buss had the smallest cup of coffee of any of the minor-leaguers invited to the program.

O'Brien

The two catchers -- Maynard and O'Brien -- both played in the Arizona Fall League (as did Garcia and Martin).

The most interesting -- and I use that term loosely -- is the inclusion of Rojas. General Manager Ned Colletti mentioned Rojas by name in a radio interview a couple weeks ago as someone who could be in the second base mix if Alexander Guerrero isn't ready to go. I blew off the thought, as did others. But the invitation to the program leads me to believe there's at least been some talk about him either being a utility infielder or the team's second baseman come March in Australia.

The Dodgers are really doing this just to spite me. I still maintain there's no way Rojas is on the Dodgers' roster come opening day. His glove may be really good (though, it probably isn't even a 65 or 70), but one has to at least hit a little to be a major leaguer. Rojas has displayed minimal ability to hit at the minor-league level. If I can say something nice about his offense, it's the fact he's walks a little (7.6 percent) and doesn't strikeout a whole lot (11.4 percent).

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Guerra, Rosin, Buss on short list to be axed if Dodgers need 40-man spot

After adding three prospects in November, signing Dan Haren, Chris Perez and Jamey Wright and re-signing the likes of J.P. Howell, Juan Uribe and Brian Wilson, the Dodgers' 40-man roster is full-up.

Yet, there's still work to be done to the Major League roster.  The Dodgers' bench isn't fully settled yet and there's the looming potential signing of Masahiro Tanaka. That means there are going to be some players on the proverbial chopping block.

After the Dodgers place Chad Billingsley and Scott Elbert on the 60-day disabled list, there will be two vacant spots. But if the Dodgers need to add more players (and they might), there would need to be additional moves. Just because it's the new year doesn't mean teams stop making moves. The 2014 Dodgers aren't yet a finished product, and probably won't be until March.

The Dodgers' bench is the weakest part of the club right now. Andre Ethier is the most established guy, but he might be better than Carl Crawford. Either of them could also be moved before opening day, or one of them could replace an injured, say, Matt Kemp, on opening day. Scott Van Slyke is about the only other legitimate threat off the bench. Tim Federowicz's spot is secure, as it would seem is Dee Gordon's. That's four spots, with another spot needed for (preferably) a shortstop. That could be Brendan Harris, it could be a player yet to be signed. That remains to be seen.

Here are the candidates who could be designated for assignment, traded or released to make room for others:

Mike Baxter

Chili Buss

Drew Butera

Javy Guerra

Seth Rosin

Justin Sellers

The Dodgers could cut any of those guys today and not think twice about it. But there is potential for some of those guys to be contributors at the Major League level.

Buss

Baxter and Buss are essentially the same player. Both have the ability to play center field and provide a little speed. It seems redundant, especially with a guy like Joc Pederson nearing his Major League debut. Either of them could go.

DFA chances: 25 percent

Butera can't hit a lick, but he's solid defensively. The fact he plays catcher helps his cause. The Dodgers could designate him for assignment, and I'd be surprised if anyone took a flyer on the 30-year-old.

DFA chances: 10 percent

Guerra, once the Dodgers' closer, is an afterthought after the emergence of Kenley Jansen and the signing of about 47 relief pitchers this offseason. If a guy like Harris needs a roster spot, I'm betting Guerra is the guy most likely cut. Plus, he's out of options, so if he doesn't make the 25-man roster, he'd go through waivers, where he'd surely be claimed.

DFA chances: 90 percent

Rosin would first have to be placed on waivers, giving other teams the chance to take a Rule 5-type flyer on him. If he were to clear waivers, he'd then have to be offered back to the Phillies for $25,000. With a live-enough arm, I'm betting the Phillies would take a worthwhile gamble on him. If, for some reason, they don't, he'd be nice to stash in Triple-A as a reliever.

Waive chances: 70 percent

As for Sellers, I'm thinking the only reason he's on the 40-man is his ability to play a competent shortstop (better than anyone in the organization, probably). He can't hit and was arrested last offseason, but his defense is solid. The Dodgers could just go with Sellers over Harris, but Harris offers that "veteran goodness."

DFA chances: 20 percent

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None of these guys are long-term Dodgers (would give Rosin the best chance of that). But each could help a team (maybe not the Dodgers) in some capacity.

The interesting part isn't who the Dodgers remove from the 40-man, it's who they're replacing said player with. I'm hoping Tanaka, but I'm not as sure of that as I was a month or so ago.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers' signing of Jamey Wright could signal something is brewing

After the Dodgers reportedly agreed to terms with Chris Perez late Sunday night, it was a safe assumption they were done adding pieces to the bullpen. But the Dodgers apparently agreed to a 1-year contract with former Dodger (and just about everyone else) Jamey Wright.

I wrote about Wright when the Dodgers reportedly had interest in him at the Winter Meetings.

"Something to note is the reduced ground ball percentage. The nearly 11 percent decline didn't result in an outrageous rise in his home run per fly ball rate, which was likely because he struck out more than a batter per nine innings more in 2013 than he did in 2012.

He'll be 39 later this month, so there's no guarantee the success will continue. But on a 1-year deal, Wright would be well worth a look.

Wright has made a Major League rosters in each of the last eight seasons as a non-roster invitee. This year, it seems he won't have to be an NRI, as NRIs don't usually get inked in December -- especially those who have been really solid the last couple of years."

He probably didn't agree to a minor-league deal, so this creates quite the full bullpen in Los Angeles.

Bullpen locks
J.P. Howell
Kenley Jansen
Chris Perez
Paco Rodriguez
Brian Wilson
Jamey Wright

Bullpen hopefuls
Jose Dominguez
Brandon League
Seth Rosin
Chris Withrow

Bullpen longshots
Stephen Fife
Onelki Garcia
Yimi Garcia
Matt Magill

Injured
Chad Billingsley
Scott Elbert

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That's 16 players for -- at most -- seven spots. Because guys like Dominguez and Withrow have options, they're likely the odd men out. Rosin was a Rule 5 draftee. If he's to remain with the Dodgers, he'll have to be on the 25-man roster (or the disabled list). I only put League here because he was atrocious in 2013 and I could see the Dodgers eating that money (though, it isn't likely).

Billingsley and Elbert will be placed on the 60-day disabled list. Billingsley is expected to pitch later this season, so he'll almost assuredly be back.

The Wright signing could signal a couple things:

1. Perez (or Howell, I suppose) failed his (their) physical(s)
2. There's a trade brewing

Of the two, I'd say No. 2 is more likely. Guess it could be David Price, but I wouldn't call it a lock. Maybe a minor(ish) trade involving Withrow or Dominguez, because having guys like Perez, League and Wright instead of Withrow makes zero sense.

We'll see what happens. Wright is a solid reliever, but the bullpen is now overflowing with available arms. Something has to give here.

Photo credit: Keith Allison, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers to re-sign J.P. Howell to surprisngly reasonable 2-year deal

J.P. Howell was supposed to break the bank (for him and lefty relievers) this winter, but he didn't. He is reportedly set to re-sign with the Dodgers for two years and $11.25 million. There's also a mutual option of $6.25 million for 2016 that vests with 120 appearances in 2014-15.

Howell has made 122 appearances the last two seasons, so if he pitches enough for his option to vest, it'll almost be surely because he has pitched well.

By comparison, Javier Lopez got three years and $13 million from the Giants and Boone Logan got three years and $16.5 million from the Rockies.  Howell at two years, $11.25 million (up to $17.5 million in three years) looks awfully good.

What separates Howell from Lopez and Logan is the fact he can get right-handers out -- something that makes him more valuable to the Dodgers.

With Paco Rodriguez faltering down the stretch, the Dodgers needed another left-hander in the 'pen. Considering the options, they couldn't have done better.

I had Howell pegged at two years and $7 million, but that was before the market developed. I tweeted in the last week or so I'd be fine with giving him a $18 million over three years. I wrote a few weeks ago a 3-year deal was just fine with me.

I'd even argue re-signing Howell is a more important move than re-signing Brian Wilson.

The bullpen is just about wrapped up. With the addition of Seth Rosin as a potential long-reliever, the Dodgers might not need another high-profile bullpen signing. If they don't want to go with Jose Dominguez or Brandon League, perhaps another right-hander could be brought in. Jamey Wright had been mentioned before, and I'd be good with that.

Howell wasn't a sure bet to return to the Dodgers, but his California ties (born in Modesto, went to school in Carmichael, lives in Los Angeles) probably played into his decision. Oh, and that whole "Playing for a championship" thing.

Photo credit: Keith Allison, Wikimedia Commons

Daniel Murphy-for-Chris Reed deal could make sense for Dodgers, Mets

Most Dodger fans are expecting Juan Uribe to return on a 1- or 2-year deal. As the best free agent third baseman available, Uribe has every right to test the market (he'd be foolish not to).

But the Dodgers can't wait around forever. It seems Uribe is holding up the Dodgers' offseason moves to some degree -- something that seems highly unlikely just a year ago. The White Sox are (or aren't interested), as are (or aren't) the Marlins.

I've pondered trades for Chase Headley, Will Middlebrooks and Aramis Ramirez -- none of which seem too likely. So, if Uribe or any of these three don't man the hot corner for the Dodgers in 2014, perhaps a second baseman could.

No, I'm not talking about Alexander Guerrero. I'm talking about a player I've seen suggested by some over the last year-plus -- the Mets' Daniel Murphy.

Murphy is far from ideal to play third base for the Dodgers, but he's better than some might expect (myself included).

In limited time (220 2/3 innings), he's posted a 7.2 UZR/150 and a +2 defensive runs saved number. Not bad, but with David Wright in New York, there wasn't much playing time to be had there. That works out to about 25 games played, and he hasn't played the position since 2011, but it also seems like a worthwhile risk. If he's athletic enough to play second, he's athletic enough to play third. His arm is the biggest question mark. If he can make the throw consistently, he should be decent enough defensively. He won't be Uribe there (though, he'd probably have better range), but he'd be solid.

Conversely, Murphy is one of the worst defensvie second basemen in the league, posting a career -7.3 UZR/150 and -26 DRS in more than 2,600 innings. While his bat plays better at the position, his glove plays better at third -- and that's good news for the Dodgers.

Murphy isn't a great hitter and doesn't walk particularly much. His on-base percentage is tied to his batting average. If he isn't hitting, he isn't getting on base. His 6.1 percent career walk rate leaves some to be desired. But at least he doesn't strike out at a ridiculous rate (13 percent).

His .424 career slugging percentage isn't great, but it's somewhat passable for a third baseman. Considering some of the names the Dodgers have thrown out there in recent years, he'd be a considerable upgrade.

Murphy, 29 in April, has a little pop, as he hit a career-high 13 home runs in 2013 and smacked 38 doubles. He's posted above-average OPS+ numbers in all but one year of his career (96 in 2009), so the potential for some extra base hit ability is there.

Steamer and Oliver projections have him posting less than favorable stat lines:

Steamer

.280/.323/.408, 8 HR, .127 ISO

Oliver

.283/.324/.406, 10 HR, .123 ISO

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I'd bet on a similar stat line he put up in 2013. He's a solid -- if unspectacular -- player. He probably wouldn't be the difference between the Dodgers winning and losing a World Series, but he'd be a nice alternative if the Dodgers don't bring back Uribe. He also seems like a more feasible acquisition rather than a guy like Headley.

I'm thinking Chris Reed gets a deal done. Others in the industry obviously like Reed more than I do, so I'm thinking a Top 10 pitching prospect in the Dodgers' system would be enough to land Murphy from the Mets.

The Mets are reportedly wanting Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers for Ike Davis. A team can never have enough pitching, and Reed could very well make his Major League debut in 2014.

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The Dodgers and Mets made a trade on Thursday. New York sent right-handed pitcher Seth Rosin to LA for cash considerations.

The 25-year-old was selected by the Mets (from the Phillies) in Thursday's Rule 5 Draft. The Dodgers made no other Rule 5 moves or lost anyone from their system.

Rosin is a big guy -- 6'5, 250 pounds -- and projects as a middle reliever. Because he was a Rule 5 pick, he'll need to remain on the Dodger active roster for the entire season. If not, he'll need to be offered back to the Mets for $25,000. The Dodgers had to pay $50,000 to get him, plus whatever extra they're giving the Mets.

With the Dodgers needing a long reliever, Rosin might fit that bill. They were interested in Jamey Wright at the Winter Meetings, and he has yet to decide on the Dodgers or the Rays. If Wright goes back to Tampa, Rosin's chances of sticking improve dramatically.

The Phillies tried Rosin as a starter in the minors in 2013 with not much success. He posted a 4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 6.8 K/9. Rosin is surprisingly adept at throwing strikes, something that eludes most pitchers who are available in the Rule 5. His career walk rate is 2.7 per nine innings. Couple that with an 8.3 K/9 in his career and you have the makings of a solid reliever.

From Phuture Phillies (May 2013):

"Rosin was a 2010 4th round pick by the San Francisco Giants out of the University of Minnesota. In college his fastball worked 91-92 touching 94, though the summer before he touched 96 on the Cape. His secondary offering were fringy and most scouts thought he belonged in the bullpen possibly in a high leverage role. The Giants moved him to the bullpen part time after drafting him, but after acquiring him in the Hunter Pence trade the Phillies moved him back to the rotation."

He's a flyball pitcher, so it appears Dodger Stadium is a good place for him. But he's never thrown a pitch beyond Double-A, so it remains to be seen how he performs in the majors (if the Dodgers keep him around that long).

It's a good gamble for the Dodgers to make. If Rosin is close to replacement level, that'll be just fine.

Photo credit: slgckgc, Flickr