Guerra, Rosin, Buss on short list to be axed if Dodgers need 40-man spot

After adding three prospects in November, signing Dan Haren, Chris Perez and Jamey Wright and re-signing the likes of J.P. Howell, Juan Uribe and Brian Wilson, the Dodgers' 40-man roster is full-up.

Yet, there's still work to be done to the Major League roster.  The Dodgers' bench isn't fully settled yet and there's the looming potential signing of Masahiro Tanaka. That means there are going to be some players on the proverbial chopping block.

After the Dodgers place Chad Billingsley and Scott Elbert on the 60-day disabled list, there will be two vacant spots. But if the Dodgers need to add more players (and they might), there would need to be additional moves. Just because it's the new year doesn't mean teams stop making moves. The 2014 Dodgers aren't yet a finished product, and probably won't be until March.

The Dodgers' bench is the weakest part of the club right now. Andre Ethier is the most established guy, but he might be better than Carl Crawford. Either of them could also be moved before opening day, or one of them could replace an injured, say, Matt Kemp, on opening day. Scott Van Slyke is about the only other legitimate threat off the bench. Tim Federowicz's spot is secure, as it would seem is Dee Gordon's. That's four spots, with another spot needed for (preferably) a shortstop. That could be Brendan Harris, it could be a player yet to be signed. That remains to be seen.

Here are the candidates who could be designated for assignment, traded or released to make room for others:

Mike Baxter

Chili Buss

Drew Butera

Javy Guerra

Seth Rosin

Justin Sellers

The Dodgers could cut any of those guys today and not think twice about it. But there is potential for some of those guys to be contributors at the Major League level.

Buss

Baxter and Buss are essentially the same player. Both have the ability to play center field and provide a little speed. It seems redundant, especially with a guy like Joc Pederson nearing his Major League debut. Either of them could go.

DFA chances: 25 percent

Butera can't hit a lick, but he's solid defensively. The fact he plays catcher helps his cause. The Dodgers could designate him for assignment, and I'd be surprised if anyone took a flyer on the 30-year-old.

DFA chances: 10 percent

Guerra, once the Dodgers' closer, is an afterthought after the emergence of Kenley Jansen and the signing of about 47 relief pitchers this offseason. If a guy like Harris needs a roster spot, I'm betting Guerra is the guy most likely cut. Plus, he's out of options, so if he doesn't make the 25-man roster, he'd go through waivers, where he'd surely be claimed.

DFA chances: 90 percent

Rosin would first have to be placed on waivers, giving other teams the chance to take a Rule 5-type flyer on him. If he were to clear waivers, he'd then have to be offered back to the Phillies for $25,000. With a live-enough arm, I'm betting the Phillies would take a worthwhile gamble on him. If, for some reason, they don't, he'd be nice to stash in Triple-A as a reliever.

Waive chances: 70 percent

As for Sellers, I'm thinking the only reason he's on the 40-man is his ability to play a competent shortstop (better than anyone in the organization, probably). He can't hit and was arrested last offseason, but his defense is solid. The Dodgers could just go with Sellers over Harris, but Harris offers that "veteran goodness."

DFA chances: 20 percent

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None of these guys are long-term Dodgers (would give Rosin the best chance of that). But each could help a team (maybe not the Dodgers) in some capacity.

The interesting part isn't who the Dodgers remove from the 40-man, it's who they're replacing said player with. I'm hoping Tanaka, but I'm not as sure of that as I was a month or so ago.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers must trade one of their high-priced outfielders this offseason

Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig -- all are starting outfielders in Major League Baseball. Except, all four play on the same team -- for now.

Mike Petriello broke down the conundrum last week at FanGraphs. He nails it, as all six options are viable. However, it's time for the Dodgers to make a decision.

They just can't do this anymore. They simply cannot have four starting outfielders on their team when there are only three playing spots.

It isn't fair to the outfielders and it isn't fair to the rest of the team. The Dodgers must trade one of the four outfielders this winter.

Yes, the quartet was only together for four whole games last season, thus delaying any potential playing time issues. But what if the Dodgers' outfielders are relatively healthy in 2014? Will Crawford or Ethier be content playing 80-90 games each? Unlikely.

The best bet is to trade one of those two (or both, if you can find a taker), and, as the Tigers showed last week by sending Prince Fielder to the Rangers for Ian Kinsler, no contract is untradeable.

Who to trade?

Obviously, the Dodgers wouldn't trade Puig unless they were completely blown away (like, Mike Trout for Puig). So, cross him off the list.

Kemp is the best outfielder the Dodgers have, but he's also the most uncertain. His trade value is at an all-time low and he's owed almost $130 million for the next six years. If he was 2009 or 2011 Matt Kemp, that'd be a steal. The fact is, he isn't and he'll likely not be the '11 version again. The Dodgers wouldn't get anything close to fair value in return (rightfully so). That leaves Crawford and Ethier.

Crawford is owed $82.5 million over the next four years. He had a solid 2013 season, but he also missed time with a hamstring injury. He hit 10 home runs (six in the regular season, four in the postseason), which was surprising. He can still get hits, but he doesn't walk much (and never really has). He still has above-average speed, but he didn't use it enough to be a menace on the basepaths as he was so many years ago.

He's only going to slow down going forward, but there's still value there. He has an average center fielder's range in left field, giving him the ability to be a plus -defender in left. His arm is his worst tool.

An outfield-desperate team that doesn't want to give up a draft pick for guys like Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo and Curtis Granderson might take a shot on Crawford, if the price is right.

Ethier is due $71.5 million over the next four years. His platoon splits are bad (.235/.294/.351) against left-handed pitching. Ideally, he's a platoon outfielder. However, he's paid like a starter and is good enough against righties that his playing against lefties occasionally is palatable.

Ethier's power has decreased in recent years. He still hit 12 home runs and 33 doubles this season, but he's not the player he was a few years ago. He's never been a threat with his legs, but he's an average runner who won't clog the basepaths.

His ability to play center field at least somewhat passably increases his value. He can fill in as a center fielder, but his best position is still in a corner (likely left field).

I'd see Ethier is more likely to be traded than Crawford, but one of them must be traded. Not just for the Dodgers, but for the player. They deserve a chance to start somewhere without having to worry about a guy on the bench taking significant playing time away from them.

Depth

Some say the Dodgers need to keep all four in case of injuries. I understand that notion, but the Dodgers already have viable backup options.

Scott Van Slyke showed last season he doesn't just have "slider bat speed" anymore. He lost some weight and it clearly helped him. He's the best power threat off the Dodgers' bench. He's capable defensively in a corner and can play a little first base.

Joc Pederson is just about MLB-ready, but it doesn't make sense to put him on the bench. Instead, he'll go to Triple-A and wait his turn. If any of the outfielders suffer a long-term injury, Pederson could get the call. Keeping Van Slyke in a part-time role would be best.

Also, the Dodgers should sign a true center fielder this winter. My original pick was Chris Young. Now, I'm pining for Franklin Gutierrez.

The Dodgers have Mike Baxter and Nick Buss on the 40-man roster, both of whom are capable of playing center field. They're not typical 25-man roster guys, but they could be on the active roster for a week or two without really hurting the team.

Trade return

The Dodgers have a chance to add some kind of valuable piece by trading Crawford and/or Ethier. They could either land second-tier prospects who have a chance to be a little more, or they can reallocate their money by taking on another big contract in return for the big contract of Crawford or Ethier. An Ethier-for-Kinsler swap made some sense, but that won't happen now.

Some have suggested Kemp-for-Elvis Andrus. While Andrus is a plus-plus defender at shortstop -- something that can't be overlooked -- he's owed almost as much as Kemp is over the next six years. Andrus is a singles hitter who can take a walk every once in awhile and steal some bases. He isn't the worst player the Dodgers could acquire, but I wouldn't move Kemp for him. Kemp's potential outweighs Andrus' limited offensive ceiling.

Now, if you're talking an Ethier-for-Andrus deal, that might be a bit more doable. Some money and other pieces would probably have to be involved, though.

The Rangers, despite trading Kinsler, still have middle infield depth to trade and an outfield spot or two to fill. There could be something there, but I wouldn't call it a sure thing.

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For everyone worried about injuries, don't worry. Yes, they're part of the game, but the Dodgers have more than enough outfield depth to make up for injuries -- minor or major.

This situation needs to come to head. The Dodgers cannot continue this dance next season. The time to trade at least one of the outfielders is now. It will make the team better and more functional while allowing a guy to get consistent playing time without having to look over his shoulder.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

2013 Los Angeles Dodgers season review: Outfielders

The Dodgers' outfield was quite solid despite a rash of injuries in 2013. It got a boost from a hot-hitting rookie, a quitely consistent center fielder and a fast-starting left fielder. They also didn't get much from their former MVP candidate.

Dodgers outfield by the numbers

Left field

.260/.321/.377

719 PA, 80 R, 170 H, 37 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 17 SB, 57 BB, 100 K

Center field

.286/.360/.419

695 PA, 74 R, 176 H, 38 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 73 RBI, 12 SB, 65 BB, 140 K

Right field

.290/.361/.475

711 PA, 85 R, 183 H, 36 2B, 3 3B, 25 HR, 67 RBI, 12 SB, 61 BB, 149 K

Individual performers (all Wins Above Replacement numbers taken from FanGraphs)

Carl Crawford

.283/.329/.407, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 15 SB, 6.0 BB%, 2.9 WAR

- Crawford got off to a hot start, leading the Dodgers in April and early May. He cooled off, (predictably) got hurt, struggled before somewhat surging before the playoffs. He then proceeded to hit four home runs in 10 playoff games. He's a streaky hitter who was solid defensively in left field.

Grade: B

Matt Kemp

.270/.328/.395, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 15 2B, 7.6 BB%, -0.4 WAR

- Kemp wasn't healthy to start the season, and it showed. Once he got healthy, he got hurt, again. Once he got healthy, again, he got hurt, again. The ankle injury he suffered the Sunday after the All-Star break in Washington bothered him the rest of the season. He showed signs of the MVP-caliber player he is, but his health wouldn't allow him to sustain it. It was surprising that he didn't play in the playoffs because of the severity of his ankle injury. Hopefully he doesn't play in 2014 until he's 100 percent. Two off-season surgries mean he might not be ready for the start of the season, which is OK.

Grade: D+

Andre Ethier

.272/.360/.423, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 33 2B, 11.0 BB%, 2.9 WAR

- Ethier's season was good, if unspectacular. His on-base percentage was respectable, his walk rate was above-average and his play in center field was surprisingly good. He'll likely be traded this off-season, but his 2013 performance was much better than it seemed.

Grade: B

Yasiel Puig

.319/.391/.534, 19 HR, 42 RBI, 21 2B, 8.3 BB%, 4.0 WAR

- Puig was the Dodgers' most valuable and best outfielder after being recalled on June 3. His debut was great as he took the baseball world by storm. His power is undeniable, as is his arm. I don't think he's a .319 hitter going forward, but he's definitely a player you can build your team around. He's only going to get better with age (he'll be 23 next season).

Grade: A

Skip Schumaker

.263/.332/.332, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 16 2B, 7.9 BB%, -1.0 WAR

- Schumaker's numbers don't look that bad, but they still amounted to a minus-1-win player. He was a win worse than anyone the Dodgers could have acquired off the waiver wire or in Triple-A. At least he threw a scoreless inning of relief and topped out at 91 MPH on the radar gun. He gets a half-a-grade point for that alone.

Grade: D

Scott Van Slyke

.240/.342/.465, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 8 2B, 13.2 BB%, 0.9 WAR

- Van Slyke proved himself to be a capable bench player with power for the Dodgers -- something they haven't had in seemingly forever. Yet, he was absent in the playoffs despite being on the roster. Van Slyke should be the fourth outfielder this team absolutely needs (after someone is traded, of course).

Grade: B

The rest

Nick Buss, Grade: INC

Alex Castellanos, Grade: INC

Elian Herrera, Grade: INC

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Albuquerque Isotopes announce 2013 roster, led by Alex Castellanos, Matt Magill and some flamethrowers

The final Dodger full-season minor-league affiliate to announce its roster is the Albuquerque Isotopes of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Generally an offensive powerhouse, the 'Topes are lacking in hitting talent this season. That, coupled with the humidor, could lead to fewer runs scored than expected.

• Great Lakes Loons opening day roster
• Rancho Cucamonga Quakes opening day roster
• Chattanooga Lookouts opening day roster

Castellanos

The offense is led by returning 'Topes Alex Castellanos and Scott Van Slyke. After that, it gets pretty thin.

Dee Gordon will be the team's starting shortstop, while Elian Herrera should start at second base. Either spring-training-sensation-not-named Yasiel Puig Brian Barden or Rusty Ryal should start at third base. The outfield will boast a couple rangy players in Matt Angle and Nick Buss.

I hit on just 13 of 25 players from my February prediction -- the worst of any minor-league level.

Roster

Catchers
Steve Cilladi (DL)
Jesus Flores
Matt Wallach

Gordon

Infielders
Alfredo Amezaga
Brian Barden
Dee Gordon
Elian Herrera
Osvaldo Martinez (DL)
Rusty Ryal
Scott Van Slyke

Outfielders
Matt Angle
Nick Buss
Alex Castellanos
Tony Gwynn

Fife

Starting pitchers
Stephen Fife
Javy Guerra
Blake Johnson
Matt Magill
Sean White

Relief pitchers
Geison Aguasviva
Steve Ames
Angel Castro
Peter Moylan
Red Patterson
Shawn Tolleson
Josh Wall
Chris Withrow

For the first time in a long time, there is actually some pitching talent on this squad.

Magill is the best pitcher in town, while Fife has actually proven to be a potentially serviceable pitcher. Guerra is in the rotation to get stretch into a long-reliever.

The bullpen has some hard-throwing youngsters and a cagey Aussie veteran in Moylan. Ames, Tolleson, Wall and Withrow could be a potent and lethal 'pen, provided the starters pitch well enough so the quartet isn't burned out. Either Tolleson or Wall should close with Ames and Withrow setting up. And Feelin' Kinda Blue favorite Patterson should be the team's other long reliever.

There are some players missing. Jeremy Moore, who was expected to be on the roster, is back in Arizona at extended spring training. Nick Evans, Dallas McPherson and Michael Antonini were are released prior to the season. And Kevin Gregg, who didn't have an out clause in his contract, was released on Wednesday after Paco Rodriguez was chosen to begin the season with the Dodgers instead of him, something I wrote about over at Yahoo! Sports.

My best guess at a lineup

Gordon SS
Gwynn CF
Castellanos RF/LF
Van Slyke 1B/DH
Barden 3B
Herrera 2B
Flores C
Ryal DH/1B
Angle/Buss LF/RF

Wall

Really, not a whole lot to be excited about. Guys like Blake Smith or, gulp, Puig could get the call to Triple-A, but that wouldn't come until midseason. They could get some reinforcements in the form of Moore and Brian Cavazos-Galvez, if there are enough injuries.

Here's hoping Magill doesn't get shelled, Castellanos continues to hit and the power relievers post a lot of strikeouts. It's the PCL, so anything can happen. The 'Topes could challenge for a playoff spot, but there are a lot of good prospects in the league, making other teams stronger.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue