Attempting to project Alex Guerrero's statisitics for his rookie season

It is notoriously difficult to translate performance in the Cuban league to the major leagues. The competition level is similar to A-ball in the minors. There's only about a dozen people who have any kind of record in both places, so that's not much to go on.

Nevertheless, some have made now their best attempt to guess at what our own Alex Guerrero might offer in 2014.

In the field, people expect him to be maybe average at second baseman once he gets used to it. On the bases, he might be about average as well, or a little below. He was signed for his bat though, so let's look at that.

His last few years in Cuba he was hitting something like .310/.400/.600, with a 14 percent walk- and strikeout rate. That sounds good, but it might only be equivalent to .225/.285/.400 (according to the foremost Cuba stats guy, Clay Davenport)

Some have taken a stab at projecting his 2014 hitting line, and they mostly see him doing better than that in the batting average department.

Projector	AVG / OBP / SLG	BB% / K% / ISO
ZiPS	.259/.324/.386	8 / 14 / .128
Steamer	.250/.309 /.418	7 / 16 / .168
Davenport	.215 /.277 /.389	8 / 28 / .174
Pecota	.240 /.298 /.405	? / ??  / .165
My Own Crazy Ideas	.256/.316/.421	8 / 18 / .165

I don't have the Pecota details, but to get to that line, it'd have to be around an 8 percent walk rate and 25-26 percent strikeout rate.

My crazy ideas are based roughly on the idea of treating Cuba stats like A-ball, but also based on translating traditional scouting reports into Major League performance. If a guy has a 45 hit tool and 55 power tool, that's pretty much the line I'm giving you since 50 is average by definition. And that's what they say he has.

These five projections are not saying terribly different things. He looks to be about an average hitter, and if he's capable of playing something close to a major-league average second base, that's really good. His hitting projection is not average for a second baseman, it's average for all hitters. That makes him a solid regular approximately worth his salary ($28 million / 4 years = $7M AAV). This winter, free agents expected to give about that level of performance (call it ~2 Wins Above Replacement) got right around that same dollar figure give or take. That's guys like David Murphy at $6M, James Loney at $7M, Chris Young at $7.25M and Marlon Byrd at $8M.

And critically, it's a comparable or higher level of performance than can be expected from Mark Ellis next year, so the Dodgers are likely to have improved their team overall and paid a fair price to do it.

Dee Gordon could get one final shot to be a valuable player with the Dodgers

Dee Gordon shows the volatility that are prospects. He was once the Dodgers' top prospect, drawing comparisons to guys like Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. Now, he's struggling to hang on as a utility player in the majors.

With Alexander Guerrero's injury concerns in the Dominican Winter League, perhaps Gordon gets one more shot as a starter in the majors -- at second base with the Dodgers.

Gordon began the offseason by going to the Dominican to play the outfield with Licey. He played primarily center field, but also dabbled in the corners. He handled himself well enough, reportedly, as he surely has the athleticism to handle the outfield. The bad thing is, his bat doesn't play especially well out there. He's a career .256/.301/.312 hitter in 669 plate appearances, which leaves a lot to be desired.

He's now playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League in hopes of him acclimating himself at second base. He played 20 games at second in Triple-A last year and three with the Dodgers (totaling 3 2/3 innings).

The question isn't particularly with his bat, but with his glove. He was a below-average shortstop. Second base isn't terribly different than shortstop, but a player still needs to be sure-handed at the position. That, and inaccurate throws, were Gordon's bugaboos at the position. A shift to second base should, in theory, cut down on the throwing errors. His arm is plenty strong, but sometimes he doesn't know where it's going.

With Guerrero's hamstring injury preventing him from playing a full winter ball season, second base could be wide open for Gordon's taking.

There is no other viable second base option beyond Gordon and Guerrero on the Dodgers' roster -- even in the minors. Sure, General Manager Ned Colletti mentioned Miguel Rojas by name in a radio interview, there's no earthly way Rojas breaks camp as the Dodgers' opening day second baseman. The Dodgers don't need an offensive powerhouse at second, but thinking Rojas -- a career .234/.302/.287 hitter in the minors -- could be the team's opening day second baseman is borderline clinical.

As of now, it's Gordon's job for the taking. It's entirely possible the Dodgers acquire someone to play a couple months as the starting second baseman while Guerrero gets more seasoning in the minors (preferably Triple-A). But Gordon being able to handle the position would make things a lot easier, and increase his utility.

Of course, the Dodgers not picking up Mark Ellis' option (would have cost them an additional $4.75 million) and them not retaining Nick Punto looks like a mistake right now. What do they say about hindsight and 20/20...?

If Gordon is ever going to amount to anything other than a mediocre utility player (which is isn't, at the moment), this could be his last shot at doing so. He could bat eighth, not make mind-numbing errors at second and be a player who provides positive value (or at the very least, replacement level value), then the Dodgers would be more than thrilled. But I'm not holding my breath.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers might need a 2B if Alexander Guerrero isn't ready by opening day

Alexander Guerrero was signed to be the Dodgers' everyday second baseman, but he hasn't looked like that so far this winter. Not because of poor performance -- he's hitting .289/.325/.447 -- but because he hasn't played that much (40 plate appearances).

Guerrero, 27,  suffered a hamstring injury in early November, sat out nearly three weeks, came back and seemed to reaggravate the injury last week. He totaled just five at-bats in the last three games. With him being such an unknown, the Dodgers can't go into the season with Guerrero expected to play 140-plus games at second base, can they?

The Dodgers lost their insurance policies in Mark Ellis after he signed a 1-year deal with the Cardinals on Sunday, and Nick Punto, who has long since signed with Oakland. The Dodgers probably won't acquire a big-name second baseman (i.e. Howie Kendrick), but a guy who's capable of playing 80-100 quality games at the position could be in order. The only problem is, there aren't a ton of those guys available -- either on the free agent market or via trade.

Here's my best guess as to who the Dodgers could land to help out at second base.

Free agent

Alexi Casilla

Jamey Carroll

Chris Getz

Cesar Izturis

Paul Janish

Jayson Nix

Placido Polanco

Omar Quintanilla

Brian Roberts

Ramon Santiago

Justin Turner

Trade

Mike Aviles

Emilio Bonifacio

Alberto Callaspo

Nick Franklin

Maicer Izturis

Of the free agents, Turner has already been mentioned. Other guys I like from that list include Carroll, Getz, Izturis, Roberts and Santiago.

Carroll is a former Dodger and a little long in the tooth. He's been pretty poor since leaving the Dodgers after the 2011 season. He plays multiple positions, but he might not be a 100-games-played guy anymore.

Getz has a light bat and is exclusively a second baseman, but he does a couple things well. He doesn't strike out a lot (9.1 percent) and he's a really good basestealer (82.8 percent success rate).

Cesar Izturis is a personal favorite of mine. He's always been a plus defender and is adept at all three infield positions that aren't first base. His bat isn't much, but if the Dodgers are looking for a quality defensive backup, he might fit.

Roberts is the most interesting guy here. He was a budding star for the Orioles before injuries got the best of him. He's also deal with concussions in recent years, so that's always going to be an issue. He's 36 and has the best offensive upside of anyone on this list. He's strictly a second baseman, but also owns a .279/.349/.412 career slash line, which would be a nice complement to Guerrero's uncertainty.

Santiago is another multi-position infielder with a light bat. He's basically interchangeable with Carroll, Gets and Izturis.

Of the trade targets, it's obvious Franklin is the best. The Mariners signed Robinson Cano, so they're looking to move Franklin for some kind of upgrade elsewhere. Perhaps some kind of Andre Ethier-for-Franklin swap could be had. Acquiring him would likely mean Guerrero starts the season in the minors. When he's ready, the Dodgers can figure out what to do with Franklin after that. He'd be a nice trade chip come July.

Bonifacio and Callaspo are similar players. Both can play multiple infield positions, with Bonifacio being able to handle center field. Callaspo is the better offensive player, while Bonifacio is the better runner. The Royals don't have a great second base option, so Bonifacio might not be available right now. Callaspo figures to get a lot of playing time with the A's, but he's a little redundant with Punto on board. Acquiring either of these guys might not be likely (Callaspo more likely than Bonifacio), but either of them would fit nicely into a bench role for the Dodgers.

Maicer Izturis is similar to Callaspo, but there's no indication the Blue Jays are looking to move him.

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There are options out there. They're not terribly appealing, but they're out there for the Dodgers' taking. None of these guys -- outside of Franklin -- would cost a lot to acquire. I'd really like to see the Dodgers sign a guy like Roberts, despite his injury concerns. He's a solid defender who might have a little bit of offensive ability left in his bat.

If they don't acquire a second baseman -- with the way the roster is currently constructed -- Dee Gordon could be the team's starting second baseman in Australia on opening day. Yikes.

I'm still on board with the Guerrero signing, but with the injury concerns in winter ball and the lack of playing time over the last 18-24 months, it'd be a surprise if he were to open the season as the Dodgers' starting second baseman. Being an older signee actually works in his favor. A good spring training could change that, but a stopgap is probably more realistic at this point.

Photo credit: Keith Allison, Wikimedia Commons

2013 Los Angeles Dodgers season review: Infielders and Catchers

The Dodgers' infield in 2013 started off slowly, but picked up once players got healthy. The team has two players who are going nowhere anytime soon (first base and shortstop), another who's going to be an older rookie (second base) and a huge question mark (third base) for the future.

The infield had a few surprises, but also some disappointments.

Dodgers infielders by the numbers

Catcher
.236/.306/.367
656 PA, 61 R, 137 H, 26 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 73 RBI, 1 SB, 59 BB, 135 K

First base
.285/.338/.447
703 PA, 75 R, 181 H, 32 2B, 1 3B, 23 HR, 104 RBI, 1 SB, 53 BB, 109 K

Second base
.277/.334/.350
708 PA, 70 R, 177 H, 24 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 64 RBI, 6 SB, 44 BB, 105 K

Third base
.249/.307/.370
665 PA, 66 R, 149 H, 29 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, 64 RBI, 5 SB, 49 BB, 111 K

Shortstop
.271/.335/.449
676 PA, 90 R, 165 H, 33 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR, 77 RBI, 19 SB, 53 BB, 121 K

Individual performers (all Wins Above Replacement numbers taken from FanGraphs)

A.J. Ellis
.238/.318/.364, 10 HR, 52 RBI, 17 2B, 10.0 BB%, 2.2 WAR
- Ellis didn't fare nearly as well in 2013 as he did in his breakout 2012 season. He got off to a hot start before going cold for a good portion of the season. He was good behind the plate as he threw out 44 percent of attempted base stealers. Despite poor offensive numbers, he was still a 2-win player.
Grade: C

Tim Federowicz
.231/.275/.356, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 12 R, 5.8 BB%, 0.0 WAR
- Federowicz proved himself to be a capable defensive backup catcher (29 percent caught stealing), but he did about what was expected from him with the bat. He has a little pop (.125 ISO), but he'll likely never hit enough to be a full-time player.
Grade: D+

Ramon Hernandez
.208/.291/.438, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB, 10.9 BB%, 0.4 WAR
- Remember when he was a thing? His Dodger tenure was short-lived and pretty unremarkable, despite being worth nearly half-a-win (thanks to those three home runs in 55 plate appearances).
Grade: D+

Adrian Gonzalez
.293/.342/.461, 22 HR, 100 RBI, 32 2B, 7.3 BB%, 2.8 WAR
- Gonzalez was one of the most consistent, if not unspectacular, hitters the Dodgers had this season. He posted better numbers than former first baseman James Loney and should be entrenched as the team's cleanup hitter for 2014.
Grade: B

Mark Ellis
.270/.323/.351, 6 HR, 48 RBI, 10 HBP, 5.4 BB%, 1.8 WAR
- Ellis spent most of his time hitting second in the lineup, because that's what second basemen do. He wasn't great, but he was nearly a 2-win player with minimal extra-base hit power. He was nails defensively, as usual.
Grade: C-

Hanley Ramirez
.345/.402/.638, 20 HR, 57 RBI, 25 2B, 8.0 BB%, 5.1 WAR
- Ramirez was one of the game's best hitters, but he just couldn't stay healthy. It started in the World Baseball Classic, then in 'Frisco, then late in the regular season and finally when Joe Kelly plunked him in Game 1 of the NLCS. Despite all that, he was the Dodgers' best hitter and was surprisingly adequate defensively at shortstop. It'd be nice to see him produce like this while playing 125-130 games. He had 47 extra base hits in 336 plate appearances.
Grade: A

Juan Uribe
.278/.331/.438, 12 HR, 50 RBI, 22 2B, 7.0 BB%, 5.1 WAR
- Uribe was pariah coming into the season and was displaced as the team's starting third baseman by popup king Luis Cruz. But Uribe was great with the glove this season and hit surprisingly well -- well enough that I'd like to see him return. He tied for the team lead in WAR with Ramirez, which is still somewhat unbelievable. Oh, and the whole "Uribear" thing is just fantastic.
Grade: A-

Nick Punto
.255/.328/.327, 2 HR, 21 RBI, 15 2B, 9.9 BB%, 1.9 WAR
- Punto was surprisingly good for the Dodgers this season -- so good that the A's already signed him to a contract for 2014. He was a solid backup shortstop in spurts and played a capable third base. Couldn't really ask for much more from a utility guy.
Grade: B

Luis Cruz
.127/.175/.169, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 12 R, 3.9 BB%, -0.4 WAR
- Cruz was given a chance to be the team's third baseman and, as predicted by most sane folks, failed miserably. He didn't walk, he didn't hit much of anything and certainly didn't hit with pop. At least he was good defensively.
Grade: F

Dee Gordon
.234/.314/.298, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 10 SB, 9.4 BB%, 0.0 WAR
- Gordon wasn't good in limited playing time. He's fast, but is terrible defensively at shortstop. He's playing the outfield in winter ball. He could be an 2B/SS/CF utility man next season, which would minimally increase his value.
Grade: D

Jerry Hairston
.211/.265/.275, 2 HR, 22 RBI, 7 2B, 6.2 BB%, -1.3 WAR
- Hairston was, by WAR, the worst Dodger player this season. He dealt with injuries and might be at the end of his career.
Grade: F

Justin Sellers
.188/.263/.246, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 6 R, 6.5 BB%, -0.1 WAR
- Sellers played a lot of shortstop early on when Ramirez was hurt, but he spent the vast majority of his season in Triple-A.
Grade: F

Michael Young
.314/.321/.392, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 2 2B, 1.9 BB%, -0.2 WAR
- Young had 16 hits with the Dodgers -- 13 of which were singles. He had negative defensive value and had one of the worst playoff games of all-time -- in two plate appearances.
Grade: F

The rest
Drew Butera, Grade: INC

Photo credits

Ramirez: Keith Allison, Flickr

Others: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Solid group of Dodgers' free agents led by Howell, Uribe and Wilson

When the Dodgers' season ended, the thought was the team wouldn't need a bunch of changes or other acquisitions. While the managerial situation is still officially unresolved, Don Mattingly is said to be back as the Dodgers' manager for 2014 (and hopefully beyond).

But the Dodgers have 12 free agents and some decisions to make on those guys, other free agents, international players and potential trade acquisitions.

Dodger free agents
Chris Capuano (option declined)
Mark Ellis (option declined)
Jerry Hairston
J.P. Howell
Carlos Marmol
Ricky Nolasco
Nick Punto
Skip Schumaker
Juan Uribe
Edinson Volquez
Brian Wilson
Michael Young

Both Capuano and Ellis had their options declined, and they were subsequently bought out ($1 million each). There's no reason to bring back guys like Hairston, Marmol, Schumaker and Volquez. I'd throw Young in there, but we all know how the Dodgers like their veteran players. Personally, I don't want him back.

So, that leaves Howell, Nolasco, Punto, Uribe and Wilson.

Howell
The left-hander had an excellent season out of the Dodger bullpen. He posted career-bests in ERA (2.18), fielding independent pitching (2.89), ground ball percentage (57.2) and home runs per nine innings pitched (0.3). Better yet, he was dominant against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .164 batting average against and a .452 OPS, fifth-best lefty vs. lefty mark in baseball. Howell is also durable (62 IP, 67 appearances) and can get right-handers out (.222/.312/.296). With Scott Elbert out until midseason, the Dodgers will need Howell to take pressure off Paco Rodriguez, who was bad for the last six weeks of the season. In my eyes, he's a must-re-sign player (at a reasonable cost, of course).
Verdict: Re-sign -- 2 years, $7 million

Nolasco
I was originally against a Nolasco acquisition, but the Dodgers paid pennies to get him, and it was pretty good, until the last few starts of the season. Nolasco posted a solid 3.52 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts) as a Dodger. But he faltered late and didn't fare well in Game 4 of the NLCS -- his only postseason appearance. The Twins are reportedly interested in his services and will probably get a healthy deal on the open market. The Dodgers can do better on the open market.
Verdict: Don't re-sign

Punto
At one time this season, Punto was third among Dodger position players in WAR. That isn't a typo. As the season wore on, his effectiveness wore down. He finished the season as nearly a 2-win player. I wouldn't expect that kind of production in 2014 (or beyond), but his ability to play a decent shortstop (as well as second- and third base) make him valuable, even if he gets picked off second base in huge postseason situations.
Verdict: Re-sign -- 1 year, $1.5 million

Uribe
If there was ever an example of a redemption story, it's Uribe, or "Uribear," as he was known for most of the 2013 season. While he was one of the worst Dodgers in his first two seasons in Blue, he was a 5-win player in 2013. His 5.1 WAR was seventh-best of any third baseman in baseball (right behind Adrian Beltre's 5.2 and well ahead of future Dodger Chase Headley's 3.6). He hit .278.331/.438 with 12 home runs, but his defense was Gold Glove-caliber (even if he was beaten out by Nolan Arenado) and among the league's best (and the best, in other categories). With the third base market (free agent and trade) wafer-thin, bringing back Uribe is a must. A 2-year deal wouldn't be bad, as long as he has a platoonmate.
Verdict: Re-sign -- 2 years, $10 million

Wilson
Some questioned whether the Dodgers did the right thing by signing Wilson at the end of July. Well, Wilson made everyone believers again with a great -- albeit abbreviate -- 2013 campaign and a solid postseason showing. He became the Dodgers' setup man and thrived. It's a no-brainer to want to bring him back, but it's another question as to whether he wants to stay. If he wants to be part of a great team, doesn't care about closing and wants to form one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, sure. If he wants to be "the guy" elsewhere, you couldn't blame him. No 3-year deals here, but I'd give him a couple years at a decent price.
Verdict: Re-sign -- 2 years, $11 million (if he wants to stay)

Photo credits

Howell: Keith Allison, Wikimedia Commons

Nolasco: Not that Bob James, Flickr

Uribe: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

After a few months, the Dodgers finally sign Alexander Guerrero to 4-year deal

For the third time since July, it appears the Dodgers have signed Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero.

Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reported it's a 4-year, $28 million deal that could be worth as much as $32 million. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports corroborated the report, adding Guerrero will get a $10 million signing bonus.

Original reports had the deal at 7 years and $32 million. Then the next report had it at 5 years, $32 million. this deal is much more paletable and better for all involved.

Guerrero, 26, will make his MLB debut in his age-27 season. There's no guarantee Guerrero will be good enough to justify a 7-year commitment, so a 4-year deal seems just right.

Guerrero played shortstop in Cuba, but almost everyone believes he'll be a second baseman in the majors. The Dodgers have a gaping hole at the position, so it makes sense.

This spells the end of the Mark Ellis era as the Dodgers' starting second baseman and likely takes the Dodgers out of the bidding for Yankees' free agent to be Robinson Cano.

With this kind of contract and a full winter, I'd be shocked if Guerrero isn't the Dodgers' starting second baseman for both opening days in 2014.

Here's some video of the Dodgers' new second baseman.

This is just the first of what I expect to be many and potentially impactful offseason moves for the Dodgers. After falling short in the NLCS, they need to get stronger at a couple positions and have some quality depth. That depth was tested this season, and it wasn't that great.

I'm just glad the Guerrero saga is over. Now, when is Masahiro Tanaka getting posted...?

2013 NLCS by the numbers: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

2013 National League Championship Series

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Oct. 11-19

Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis (Games 1-2, 6-7 if necessary); Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles (Games 3-5 if necessary)

2013 record vs. Cardinals: 4-3

Last postseason meeting: 2009, Dodgers won 3-0

*- Denotes not on NLCS roster

Game 1: Zack Greinke vs. Joe Kelly

Greinke career vs. Cardinals: 8-3, 3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.5 K/9

Kelly career vs. Dodgers: 1-1, 3.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.7 K/9

NLDS numbers

Greinke: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Kelly: 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

Cardinals hitters vs. Greinke

Matt Holliday: 9-for-26 (.346), 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Yadier Molina: 7-for-22 (.318), 2 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Jon Jay: 6-for-22 (.273), 1 BB, 2 K
David Freese: 6-for-18 (.333), 1 HR, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Daniel Descalso: 2-for-11 (.182), 1 2B, 2 K
Matt Carpenter: 3-for-7 (.429), 1 2B, 1 K
Carlos Beltran: 1-for-7 (.143), 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Tony Cruz: 1-for-3
Adam Wainwright: 0-for-3, 1 SH, 2 K
Adron Chambers: 1-for-2, 1 BB, 1 K

- Holliday is always a dangerous hitter while it's probably best to throw out regular season numbers when talking about Beltran and his Babe Ruthian performance in October.

Dodgers hitters vs. Kelly

Andre Ethier: 2-for-8 (.250), 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 K
A.J. Ellis: 1-for-8 (.125), 4 K
Adrian Gonzalez: 4-for-7 (.571), 1 HR, 1 2B
Hanley Ramirez: 2-for-7 (.286), 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Mark Ellis: 0-for-7
Nick Punto: 4-for-5 (.800), 1 2B, 1 BB
Carl Crawford: 2-for-3, 1 2B
Yasiel Puig: 1-for-2, 1 BB
Dee Gordon: 1-for-2, 1 K
Clayton Kershaw: 0-for-2, 1 K
Juan Uribe: 0-for-2
Chris Capuano*: 0-for-1
Scott Van Slyke: 0-for-1

- Gonzalez is the butter and egg man here, with Ethier chipping in a home run. Kelly has struck out 10 Dodgers in his career -- four times it's been A.J. Ellis taking the fall.

Game 2: Clayton Kershaw vs. Michael Wacha

Kershaw career vs. Cardinals: 4-5, 3.75 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.2 K/9

Wacha career vs. Dodgers: Never faced

NLDS numbers

Kershaw: 13 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 13 K
Wacha: 7 1/3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K

Cardinals hitters vs. Kershaw

Holliday: 9-for-30 (.300), 1 2B, 10 BB, 7 K
Beltran: 5-for-22 (.227), 2 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Molina: 5-for-19 (.263), 2 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
Freese: 3-for-15 (.200), 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Carpenter: 2-for-12 (.167), 2 K
Jay: 1-for-6 (.167), 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Pete Kozma: 4-for-5 (.800), 3 2B
Wainwright: 2-for-4 (.500), 1 2B, 1 SH 2 BB, 1 K
Descalso: 2-for-4 (.500), 2 BB
Cruz: 1-for-3
Shane Robinson: 1-for-3
Kelly: 0-for-2
Shelby Miller: 0-for-2, 1 K

- Holliday has a positive K:BB rate and, of course, Kozma has hit him the best because baseball.

Dodgers hitters vs. Wacha

Never faced

- All you need to know is Wacha has almost thrown two no-hitters in the last month. He's damn good.

Game 3: Adam Wainwright vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Wainwright career vs. Dodgers: 4-4, 3.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.2 K/9

Ryu career vs. Cardinals: 1-0, 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

NLDS numbers

Wainwright: 16 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 15 K
Ryu: 3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Dodgers hitters vs. Wainwright

Ethier: 9-for-30 (.300), 2 HR, 3 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Ramirez: 5-for-24 (.208), 3 BB, 5 K
Gonzalez: 4-for-16 (.250), 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
Mark Ellis: 1-for-12 (.083), 2 K
Uribe: 3-for-11 (.273), 2 K
Crawford: 2-for-7 (.286), 1 K
Kershaw: 0-for-5, 1 SH, 1 K
A.J. Ellis: 0-for-5, 1 K
Greinke: 1-for-4, 1 SH, 2 K
Puig: 1-for-3, 2 K
Michael Young: 0-for-3
Punto: 1-for-2, 1 2B, 1 BB
Ricky Nolasco: 0-for-1

- If Ethier is good to go, it'll be an nice boost. Not a whole lot of success otherwise.

Cardinals hitters vs. Ryu

Freese: 2-for-3, 1 K
Holliday: 2-for-3
Carpenter: 1-for-3, 1 K
Beltran: 0-for-3
Jay: 0-for-3
Kozma: 0-for-2, 1 K
Seth Maness: 0-for-1, 1 K
Carlos Martinez: 0-for-1, 1 K

- Ryu gave up one unearned run in seven innings, so it's easy to see why there hasn't been a lot of success by the Cardinals against the southpaw.

Game 3: Lance Lynn vs. Ricky Nolasco

Lynn career vs. Dodgers: 2-0, 2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.5 K/9

Nolasco career vs. Cardinals: 3-4, 3.84 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.3 K/9

NLDS numbers

Lynn: 4 1/3 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 6 K
Nolasco: Did not pitch

Dodgers hitters vs. Lynn

Mark Ellis: 2-for-9 (.222), 3 K
A.J. Ellis: 1-for-7 (.143), 4 K
Ethier: 1-for-6 (.167), 2 BB
Young: 0-for-5, 1 BB, 4 K
Gordon: 0-for-5, 1 K
Gonzalez: 1-for-4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 0-for-3, 2 K
Uribe: 1-for-2, 1 2B, 1 BB
Punto: 0-for-2, 1 K

- Lynn has been downright dominant against the Dodgers in his two career appearances.

Cardinals hitters vs. Ryu

Beltran: 16-for-47 (.340), 1 HR, 6 BB, 11 K
Holliday: 12-for-26 (.462), 2 HR, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Jay: 7-for-13 (.538), 1 2B, 1 K
Desclaso: 4-for-13 (.308), 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Freese: 6-for-12 (.500), 1 2B, 3 K
Molina: 3-for-11, 1 K
Cruz: 0-for-10, 2 K
Carpenter: 1-for-5, 1 K
Matt Adams: 0-for-5, 3 K
Wainwright: 0-for-2, 1 SH, 1 K

- Yikes, the Cards absolutely destroy Nolasco, though, his career numbers against them aren't that terrible.

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This is going to be a long series, and the pitching options could change as the series progresses. These teams are evenly matched, with the Dodgers having the advantage of setting up their pitchers the way they want.

The offense is going to have to continue what it has done in the postseason thus far.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Juan Uribe is the best, Yasiel Puig shows maturity, Dodgers head to NLCS

So, that was a pretty good game, no? I had a chance to be there, but just couldn’t make it work, logistically. Man, am I regretting that.

But, all that matters is the Dodgers won and are on their way to the National League Championship Series.

It started around 12 p.m. on Wednesday, when the Dodgers announced Clayton Kershaw would start on three day’s rest. He responded by throwing six innings, allowing three hits, two unearned runs, one walk while striking out six. The history of pitchers going on short rest wasn’t good, but Kershaw isn’t one to fall prey to history.

Carl Crawford got it started early with a leadoff home run. Then he hit another one in the third inning. Some possibly smart and handsome person pegged him as an "X-Factor" of sorts prior to the playoffs.

Last night’s game was great. The Dodgers’ defense wasn’t, but the rest of the game was. Two of the Braves’ three runs came in the fourth inning when two of their most sure-handed defenders made errors. Technically, Adrian Gonzalez got both of the errors, but the throw Mark Ellis made on a surefire double play ball was bad. But, you can’t assume a double play -- for some reason.

The Dodgers, down 3-2, had Yasiel Puig up in the eighth. You know, that guy who was supposed to cost the Dodgers some games in the playoffs? Well, not only did he help win the series for the Dodgers, he showed a maturity that was previously unseen.

Instead of trying to tie the game up himself off flamethrower David Carpenter, Puig did what a great hitter does: he took what the pitcher gave him and doubled to the right field corner. That set up the eventual game-winning home run by everyone’s favorite Dodger Juan Uribe.

I’ve been difficult on Uribe in the past. It was hard not to be after he got a ridiculous contract after not doing a whole lot in San Francisco (no matter what Giants’ fans say). He somehow survived the winter by not getting designated for assignment, began the season behind Luis Cruz on the third base depth chart (which looks absolutely ridiculous now) only to take it back with elite defense, better plate discipline and timely hitting.

A few months ago, I softened my stance on Uribe and warmed up to the reality he was a solid third baseman for this club.

Well, he might have hit the biggest home run of the season for the Dodgers -- and it was a no-doubter (Jazz Hands!). This after Don Mattingly called for the bunt on the first two pitches of Uribe’s at-bat.

Kenley Jansen came in and slammed the door shut by striking out the side.

The Dodgers are NLCS-bound, and they’ll face either the Cardinals or the Pirates. The deciding Game 5 (in St. Louis) is Wednesday night.

The Dodgers match up favorably against both teams. Playing St. Louis means playing a playoff-tested team that is sound in every facet of the game. However, their left-handed hitters could be neutralized by the Dodgers’ left-handed pitching. Playing Pittsburgh means playing a young and hungry team with some underrated pitching. However, the Dodgers would have home-field advantage over the Pirates, meaning Zack Greinke and Kershaw would start Games 1 and 2 in Dodger Stadium.

Gerrit Cole faces Adam Wainwright. No matter what happens, both pitchers likely won’t be available until Game 3 of the NLCS, which is an advantage for the Dodgers.

The NLCS starts Friday. This feels different than 2008 and 2009. This feels like something special is about to happen. Stay tuned.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin’ Kinda Blue

Examining Dodger representation on Baseball America's 'Best Tools' list

Baseball America released its annual list of "Best Tools" in the game -- from the Majors to Low-A. The Dodgers had a few representatives on the respective lists.

MLB

Best pitcher: Clayton Kershaw

Best curveball: Kershaw (2nd)

Best changeup: Hyun-Jin Ryu (2nd)

Best pickoff move: Kershaw (2nd)

Best defensive 2B: Mark Ellis (3rd)

Best outfield arm: Yasiel Puig (3rd)

- Not bad representation here. Think Hanley Ramirez should have gotten a mention, seeing as he's been on absolute fire this season, but it's unclear when the managers were polled. Kenley Jansen got shortchanged when it came to "Best reliever."

Triple-A

None

- Not surprising here, as there isn't a whole lot of elite talent in Albuquerque. If Jose Dominguez had logged enough innings, perhaps he could have gotten a mention for "Best fastball."

Double-A

Best defensive outfielder: Joc Pederson

Most exciting player: Pederson

- Pederson is clearly the best prospect in Chattanooga (according to seemingly everyone but me). I'm not surprised Zach Lee didn't get a mention.

High-A

Best outfield arm: Jon Garcia

- Garcia has a legitimate plus arm. Like Triple-A, there isn't a lot of talent in Rancho Cucamonga. Thankfully, Corey Seager was promoted to High-A on Friday night.

Low-A

Best reliever: Scott Griggs

- Griggs was named Midwest League Pitcher of the Week, so the "Best reliever" distinction fits. Julio Urias and Seager were outshined by others, including the consensus top prospect in all of baseball: Byron Buxton.

Don't take this list too seriously. The Dodgers, despite popular belief, do have some legitimate talent coming up through the minor leagues. Some will be in Los Angeles sooner rather than later.

Photo credits

Kershaw: SD Dirk, Flickr

All others: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue