Dodgers' 3B situation: strained hamstring, bitten-off ear, mediocrity

Coming into the 2014 season, third base was a position of strength for the Los Angeles Dodgers at the major league level in addition to great promise for the future with the inevitable move of Corey Seager from shortstop to the hot corner.

The same could not be said the last couple of seasons with the massive struggles of Juan Uribe, but following a 5-fWAR campaign, his excellent defense and suddenly solid offensive contributions were something to look forward to. Though he has walked less and struck out more through the early portion of this season, his overall line is nearly identical and his defense is still Grade-A stuff.

Unfortunately, what has not carried over is good health. A hamstring injury a few weeks ago sidelined Uribe, but he returned to the field after about a week off to recuperate. That week off could look amazing compared to what is likely in store for Uribe after he re-injured the same hamstring in Tuesday's game against the New York Mets.

Ken Gurnick reported the injury as a right hamstring strain, and David Vassegh chimed in with added information as well as words from Juan himself.

Uribe's injury is in the same spot on same leg ( right hamstring ). He said it felt worse than last time. Team will evaluate him tomorrow
— David Vassegh (@THEREAL_DV) May 21, 2014

With Hyun-Jin Ryu slated to be activated tomorrow from the DL and the Dodgers in need of a 25-man roster spot, a faux-DL stint for somebody was already a possibility. Uribe's injury simply makes it that much easier to free up a spot for Ryu while letting Uribe rest the hamstring in an effort to not have it linger all season long.

The bench would be short a guy but the club has gone that route before, and Ned Colletti has proven to care more about not cutting end-of-the-roster players in the fear that somebody claims them rather than keeping the most talented guys in the majors.

Of course, the Dodgers do have the perfect replacement, who is tearing it up in Triple-A Albuquerque: second baseman/shortstop Alex Guerrero, who entering play today was hitting .368/.411/.737/1.148 with a .482 wOBA and 191 wRC+ in just over 120 plate appearances. Yes, it's Albuquerque, but he is 27 already and the issue all along with him has been defense.

Unfortunately for Guerrero, tearing it up doesn't mean anything right now after he was physically torn up by teammate Miguel Olivo, who tried to attack Guerrero on the field; sucker-punched him in the dugout; and then sealed the deal and his fate in the big leagues moving forward by biting Guerrero's ear and taking a chunk out of it.

Guerrero's agent Scott Boras said plastic surgery to repair the ear is in order. How soon Guerrero returns to action remains to be seen, but putting him out of the question for the time being means third base will be handled by some combination of Justin Turner and Chone Figgins.

Turner is hitting .230/.280/.284/.564 with a .254 wOBA and wRC+ of just 60. Figgins sits at .211/.423/.263/.686 with a .340 wOBA and 119 wRC+. That's due to him somehow drawing six walks thus far. Neither is an appealing alternative to Uribe or Guerrero.

As I suggested on Twitter, it's pretty much come to this.

CALLING BLAKE DEWITT. #Dodgers
— Greg Zakwin (@ArgyledPlaschke) May 21, 2014

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Dodgers Digest

What must the Dodgers think of Alex Guerrero's defense?

With a monster weekend, Alex Guerrero has moved into the 1.100 OPS range at Triple-A Albuquerque. Word is that he is just not good enough in the field though to get a promotion. His defensive numbers are not that bad, so what are the Dodgers thinking?

If you're thinking of the present only, clearly a Guerrero/Dee Gordon platoon is the best way to go, and send Chone Figgins back down. You have to keep Justin Turner because he's the only other halfway competent backup shortstop unless you want to put Gordon or Guerrero there (which nobody does) when a backup is needed.

But the Dodgers want Guerrero to keep getting reps at second base. They've said all along they see him as not-yet-acceptable as a major league defensive second baseman, but with a few months of practice hopefully he gets up to at least the level where his bat can compensate for what his glove gives away.

First, his numbers. In 28 games at second base he has a .971 fielding percentage, a 4.75 range factor and a 1.1 Fielding Runs Above Average. That doesn't scream "unacceptable."  It actually sounds quite acceptable. But scouts are seeing something they don't like out there.

Dee Gordon, by contrast, in 20 games last year at 2B for Albuquerque, had a .990 fielding percentage and a 4.9 range factor. In the majors this year, he's slightly below-average in fielding percentage and slightly above-average in range factor, leading to an overall evaluation as "average major-league second baseman." Let's say Guerrero is worse in the field (and obviously on the bases), but stronger at the plate -- who offers the better overall package? Is there a way to get playing time for everyone that deserves it? Is Turner really going to get 300 plate appearances this year for the Dodgers?

Kindly, I think Gordon is capable of about a .275/.330/.355 triple-slash line going forward, which is about 10 percent below an average Major League hitter, and so costs the team about 8 runs over a full season, relative to average. His baserunning is historic, though. He looks capable of about +11 runs there. So, we're up to +3 runs above-average, offensively. His defense is maybe just a little below average for a second baseman -- so he'd probably give back five runs there compared to an average major league second baseman.  Now, in the full WAR framework, an average major league second baseman is worth two runs more than an average player, So, we get to an exactly average major league player, all in all. It's a kind of head in the oven/feet in the freezer kind of average, but average nonetheless when you add everything up.

Guerrero, on the other hand, can hit about Major League average, maybe better. If he's at least an average baserunner then, he'd have to be no worse than two runs below average over the course of a season to be the team's best option. Despite his stats, he is, by all accounts, not that. The last thing the Dodgers want is to get weaker on defense right now. But, if it came with enough bat to be worth it, that'd be something to consider.

Let's say that the scouts are right and he'd be a terrible second baseman right now, -20 runs below average over a season. How good of a hitter do you have to be to make that up? Pretty good. Say .360/.480 or so. I don't think he's that good. What if he was only bad at second base, -10 runs over a season? A .340/.450 line would make up for that. That's probably the upper bound of how good he might be. So in this case, it's probably true that there's no huge advantage to making Guerrero the every day second baseman over Gordon today.

There would be a huge advantage per game to be had by playing Guerrero as the right-handed side of the platoon, since Gordon is horrible against lefties and Turner is Turner. Having Guerrero available as a pinch-hitter sure would change the complexion of a lot of games. But the Dodgers want him to get better at second and that takes playing games at second. If they had a Bill & Ted phone booth, they'd get him a bunch of games at 3B too and turn him into a utility infielder overnight (they've started giving him some time at SS, presumably so they can see what they've got there and so he doesn't completely get out of practice). But they don't. He arrived in America only when he did, and the best the Dodgers can really hope is they get their act together and take charge of the playoff race so that they can have this ideal situation in place come September/October.

Same story for swapping out Zach Lee for Paul Maholm. Similar story for swapping out Joc Pederson for one of our lefty outfielders. Except in the case of Pederson, he has nothing much left to learn at Triple-A. He has to do the rest of his learning in the majors. So, if we want him contributing down the stretch, the sooner Ned Colletti can get this man out of town, the better. And if you can get a reliever that won't walk every other batter, or a late-inning defensive infielder back, that's a victory.

I'm with Ethier at Point Break Live... He's playing Johnny Utah #knittigfactory #Bklyn pic.twitter.com/iZ6OknZGtF
— David Vassegh (@THEREAL_DV) May 19, 2014

 Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Dodgers Digest

Dodgers' Spring Training position battle: Backup infielders

With the signing of Justin Turner, the Dodgers officially have viable options for their utility infield spots. The Dodgers may not be done adding infielders. Emilio Bonifacio is out there at 2B/3B/SS/LF/CF/RF (but for $3.5M plus something in trade), as is Brett Wallace at 1B and emergency 3B (emphasis on "emergency").

Bonifacio is super fast and can hold his own at all those positions (well, maybe not SS). Wallace has a little power. Also, there's rumors of an international man of mystery.

The signed options, as of now, are a mix of guys who are bad at offense and defense vs. guys who are terrible at offense and good at defense. How can we choose? Well, the WAR framework helps. Its components quantify the runs above/below average a player creates on offense and on defense, and lets you add it all up.

Scott Van Slyke can handle first base, as can Juan Uribe. So there's not a big need there. But second base, third base and shortstop depth are all big concerns. Hanley Ramirez can play third base, but probably won't be asked to. Alex Guerrero can play SS (and maybe 3B?) but probably won't be asked to. Although, Van Slyke is probably up and down to Albuquerque all year, unless an outfielder is traded.

The candidates, in brief

Dee Gordon - Extreme speed, not much bat, although showed an increased patience last year and seems to have bulked up (from stick figure to slightly thicker stick figure) over the winter. Borderline unplayable at SS, he's been learning 2B & CF. Left-handed batter. He has never played 3B.
Chone Figgins - Gordon with a little less (but still great) speed, a little more bat, good defense at 3B. Experience at all 3 OF spots, but horrible numbers out there despite the speed. At 36, and having fallen over a cliff several years ago, comes with big question mark stamped on his back. Switch-hitter.
Justin Turner - The best hitter of the bunch. Primarily a 2B who can cover 3B and SS (not well). Could play 1B and OF if necessary. Despite checking all the boxes for "grit" (especially the "ginger" box), he does not come with a reputation for grit. The Mets let him go because they didn't like his hustle. Unlike the Diamondbacks and Rockies (and apparently Mets), the Dodgers are actually fairly progressive in the grit department, repeatedly able to look past small things to see the total value.
Brendan Harris - Bad hitter. Also a bad fielder, although has done alright at second base. Can field 3B, SS and 1B poorly.
Miguel Rojas - Bat is really, really, really not there. He did horrible at Double-A and could likely embarrass himself in the big leagues, possibly to a historic degree. Scouting report on the glove is great though. Plus-SS who has some experience at 2B and 3B.
Justin Sellers - Bat is not there, although has the glove to contribute at SS, 3B and 2B.

I'm going to give you my projections of how each player will fare offensively next year, and convert that to a number of runs above (actually below) the average major league hitter. The baserunning runs and the overall offensive runs are scaled to 600 plate appearances. However, none of these guys will likely not reach that number in a single season for the rest of their careers.

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	Base Running	OPS+	Off. Runs above Avg
Dee Gordon	0.248	0.332	0.308	8	78	-8
Chone Figgins	0.254	0.329	0.324	5	81	-9
Justin Turner	0.264	0.323	0.374	-1	92	-7
Brendan Harris	0.239	0.285	0.339	-2	71	-21
Miguel Rojas	0.220	0.260	0.270	1	47	-35
Justin Sellers	0.228	0.295	0.308	-3	67	-25

Well, what about defense? Can Rojas or Sellers make up 15 -25 runs with their glove over Gordon/Figgins/Turner (scaled to full time)? Harris is pretty much out, as his bad fielding outside of 2B can't make up for bad hitting and bad baserunning. I don't mean to sound so harsh, but the time when he was an adequate major league player was seven years ago

Twenty runs is a lot of runs to save. The general range of great to terrible fielding is from about +15 to -15 runs over the course of the season. These guys all play the same positions, but positional adjustment would have to be figured in too since Gordon and Figgins hardly play SS. It's hard for me to translate Rojas' minor league fielding numbers to major league runs saved, but he's clearly above average at all three spots. After his back injury, Sellers is probably not the fielder he once was -- although he's still quite good.

Looking at major league and minor league stats, I'll take a shot at predicting everyone's defensive value at 2B/3B/SS in terms of runs saved over a full year. Gordon has the advantage of supposedly playing CF too (although he has never to my knowledge attempted 3B). Some of these guys have played 1B or OF in a pinch, but you wouldn't want any of them there for more than a few innings per year.

Player	2B	3B	SS
Dee Gordon	-10		-15
Chone Figgins	-10	5	-15
Justin Turner	-10	-5	-5
Brendan Harris	0	-10	-10
Miguel Rojas	15	10	10
Justin Sellers	5	10	10
Position Value	2.5	2.5	7.5

How about need? It'll be interesting to see if Gordon can handle CF, because the Dodgers only have Andre Ethier as an OK option there.

If the Dodgers go with a 5-man rotation and 7-man pen, that leaves the fourth OF, Tim Federowicz, and three other bench spots. Van Slyke will have one sometimes, leaving two or three spots. You really need a backup SS, which to me comes down to Turner or Sellers. The 18-run advantage of Turner on offense is pretty much countered by Sellers' edge in the field. It's hard to see Rojas being so good on defense that he makes up another 10 runs on top of Sellers. Based on Gordon's record to date, -15 is actually a generous grade. And Figgins hasn't been trusted to play there in years.

If it's me, I'd take Turner & Gordon. Figgins could make it if he really shows something in Spring Training, or Van Slyke is spending some time in Albuquerque.

Graphic credit: Cody Stumpo, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue