Looking at the Dodgers' numerous bullpen options for 2014

The Dodgers have a LOT of guys who are viable bullpen options, not even counting starting pitchers who are biding time. It's likely all these guys see action at some point during the year, but what should the pecking order should be?

I looked at the peripheral stats for all the guys and projected how I think they'll do this year. The rigorous approach led to some surprises and insights. Here's my list of candidates, and projections for these players, with Dodger Stadium as their home park, in 2014.

Pitcher	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA
Kenley Jansen	12.6	2.5	0.7	2.10
Brian Wilson	8.9	3.9	0.3	2.77
Jose Dominguez	8.5	4.3	0.4	3.15
Paco Rodriguez (L)	10.2	4.5	0.7	3.29
Jamey Wright	7.0	3.5	0.6	3.53
Yimi Garcia	8.6	3.3	1.1	3.64
Javy Guerra	7.5	4.0	0.7	3.76
Chris Perez	8.4	3.4	1.1	3.89
J.P. Howell (L)	7.6	3.8	0.9	3.91
Scott Elbert (L)	9.0	4.3	1.0	3.96
Brandon League	5.4	2.7	1.0	4.08
Seth Rosin	6.5	3.6	1.1	4.15
Onelki Garcia (L)	7.9	5.4	0.9	4.17
Chris Withrow	9.1	5.2	1.2	4.79

Kenley Jansen, of course, is a beast, and I feel good about Brian Wilson ($10 million looks like an overpay in light of later "closer" signings this winter, but whatever). Rodriguez ought to bounce back from a poor close to the season. That's three good guys, which goes a long way to having a solid bullpen. Relievers are volatile, but you can be pretty sure about the A-listers here at least.

Chris Perez and Brandon League are what they are -- and it could go a lot worse than what you see here.

Some guys I thought were pretty good actually just got lucky last year, or temporarily elevated themselves (I'll believe it's permanent if they do it again), and I'm not sure I see them carrying their performance level through to 2014. I'm speaking specifically about J.P. Howell and Chris Withrow.

A lot of people are down on Withrow, and I couldn't see why. I remember him getting a lot of outs last year. He did better in the majors than he ever did in the minors in terms of strikeouts and walks. He also had a completely unsustainable .205 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Howell also had a crazy-low BABIP (.241) and a HR rate 1/3 of his career average.

On the other hand, I think there's a few guys who I weren't thinking of that highly who could surprise this year.

Jose Dominguez , Yimi Garica and Javy Guerra look ready to make the jump to solid big-league contributors. Dominguez is going to get the strikeouts with that 100 MPH fastball, and I think he'll continue to limit the number of home runs he allows. His control isn't great, but it'll play. Yimi Garcia has a great slider that's striking out everyone. Guerra has been up and down, but if you normalize his BABIP & HR/FB, he actually looked good last year in both the majors and Triple-A. Jamey Wright is an ageless marvel. Seth Rosin, I don't see what the Dodgers see.

Rodriguez and Howell have the two lefty spots pretty much locked up. Scott Elbert Onelki Garcia are both recovering from surgery. Elbert is a mid-year return, while Garcia hopefully is ready close to opening day.

As far as minor-league starters spending a little time in the bullpen, I see Zach Lee (4.22 ERA) and Stephen Fife (4.28) as not that great this year. Chris Reed (4.69) and Matt Magill (4.96) just do not look good to me. Ross Stripling (3.56) is the one guy I think could contribute in that role. The numbers in parentheses are how I project them as major league starters, so perhaps they'd do a bit better in the bullpen (on average, bullpen ERAs are about 0.3 lower despite having lower quality pitchers than starting rotations). However, maybe they'd have a hard time adjusting (Fife's season was basically ruined by the disruption last year).

Paul Maholm (3.83), Josh Beckett (3.80) and Chad Billingsley (3.55) all might or might not be asked to get in the bullpen business too, with Dan Haren (3.62) as an extreme outside shot. Most likely, they'd be at least toward the middle to upper-end of the pack if they had to do that.

A lot will go into the decision besides performance -- who has what kind of contract situation in terms of minor league options, Rule 5 status, etc. There's also who the Dodgers might want to showcase for a trade, or how Beckett's recovery is going, and so on. But opening day is just a point in time. People will get injured or be ineffective and others will get their chances.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers invite top prospects to 7th annual Winter Development Program

As they've done for seven straight years, the Dodgers are holding their Winter Development Program at Dodger Stadium, beginning Sunday.

The main goals of the program are to help Dodger minor-leaguers not only prepare for the majors, but also to prepare themselves for the off-the-field aspect of being a Major League Baseball player.

From the Dodgers' official press release:

"Fifteen of the club’s top minor league prospects will be in Los Angeles for the event, which includes seminars with Dodger staffers and workouts that focus on fundamentals, strength training and conditioning. Throughout the week, Dodger prospects will familiarize themselves with the greater Los Angeles area through social events and a community service visit to A Place Called Home, a youth center in South Los Angeles. The program is highlighted by sessions with Don Mattingly, Tommy Lasorda, Don Newcombe, Maury Wills, Eric Karros, Shawn Green, Stan Kasten and Ned Colletti and the annual Legends Dinner with Dodger alumni."

The attendees are as follows:

Pedro Baez
Chili Buss
Jose Dominguez
Yimi Garcia
Zach Lee
Matt Magill
Jarret Martin
Pratt Maynard
Chris O'Brien
Joc Pederson
Chris Reed
Miguel Rojas
Seth Rosin
Scott Schebler
Ross Stripling

Lee, Magill, Pederson and Reed all attended the 2013 Winter Development Program.

Baez, Garcia and Martin were added to the 40-man roster in November, so they were locks to be there. Lee and Schebeler were the Dodgers (and my) minor-league pitcher and player of the year, respectively.

Rosin was acquired from the Mets after they selected him from the Phillies in December's Rule 5 Draft. Stripling is the best prospect of the first-timers.

Magill threw a handful of games with the Dodgers, while Dominguez pitched briefly with them last season before suffering a quad injury. Buss had the smallest cup of coffee of any of the minor-leaguers invited to the program.

O'Brien

The two catchers -- Maynard and O'Brien -- both played in the Arizona Fall League (as did Garcia and Martin).

The most interesting -- and I use that term loosely -- is the inclusion of Rojas. General Manager Ned Colletti mentioned Rojas by name in a radio interview a couple weeks ago as someone who could be in the second base mix if Alexander Guerrero isn't ready to go. I blew off the thought, as did others. But the invitation to the program leads me to believe there's at least been some talk about him either being a utility infielder or the team's second baseman come March in Australia.

The Dodgers are really doing this just to spite me. I still maintain there's no way Rojas is on the Dodgers' roster come opening day. His glove may be really good (though, it probably isn't even a 65 or 70), but one has to at least hit a little to be a major leaguer. Rojas has displayed minimal ability to hit at the minor-league level. If I can say something nice about his offense, it's the fact he's walks a little (7.6 percent) and doesn't strikeout a whole lot (11.4 percent).

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Winter Meetings Day 3 - Kemp not going anywhere, Rule 5 Draft preview

Not a damn thing happened today for the Dodgers during the last full day of the Winter Meetings.

Sure, Dave Stewart may or may not have shat the bed by telling reporters Ned Colletti told him there are no plans to trade Matt Kemp (thank God), but that was really it.

• Juan Uribe didn't sign anywhere
• The Dodgers didn't trade for David Price (though, I'm starting to talk myself into it -- more on that tomorrow)
• Masahiro Tanaka still hasn't been posted
• Andre Ethier is still a Dodger

Yeah, basically nothing. It isn't bad news, but I really want something to happen soon (but not just for the sake of happening).

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The Rule 5 Draft is Thursday, and the Dodgers have five free roster spots. However, they're not really expected to choose anyone.

A primer: If a team chooses a player during the Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, said player must remain on the active roster for the entire season. There is also a $50,000 price tag on selecting a player. If the player wants to be sent to the minor leagues, the drafting team must first offer the player back to the original team for half of the original fee ($25,000).

J.J. Cooper of Baseball America previewed some of the available players. He singled out Hector Nelo from the Dodgers. Nelo was chosen in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 last year. He pitched at Double-A in 2013 and posted a 2.67 ERA, 3.56 FIP and a 7.4 K/9. He re-signed with the Dodgers after the season and was not protected on the 40-man roster.

Nelo possesses a near-100 MPH fastball, but controlling the pitch has been a big issue for the 26-year-old righty. If not, he'd have been in the majors a long time ago.

The Dodgers hold the 25th pick, and most teams decline to select a player. This draft goes fast.

A lot of relievers are chosen in the Rule 5. Jose Dominguez was left unprotected last year, but no team took him. He had a 25-game suspension looming and not a lot of experience. The Dodgers could go that route, but I'm not expecting it.

More likely, the Dodgers take a player or two in the minor-league phase, as they did last year. And since they protected Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia and Jarret Martin, there's not much chance they lose a player in the Major League phase. If anyone gets popped, it'll be Red Patterson.

Photo credit: SD Dirk, Flickr

Dodgers should cut ties with Ronald Belisario, but they probably won't

As the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players approaches (Monday), the Dodgers have already offered three of their eligible players arbitration.

Mike Baxter, Drew Butera and Scott Elbert were all tendered offers by the Dodgers on Friday.

• Baxter: $700,000
• Butera: $700,000
• Elbert: $575,000

All three contracts are not guaranteed, meaning the Dodgers can let go of them to avoid paying the contracts. I don't see that happening to any of them as they're making chump change, even if Baxter is a fifth outfielder (at best), Butera is one of the worst hitters in MLB history and Elbert didn't throw a single pitch in 2013. It's less than $2 million for three MLB-capable players. It's hard to beat that.

That brings us to Ronald Belisario. Belisario is due about $2.3 million in arbitration. In the Frank McCourt days, that looked like a ton of money. In the Guggenheim days, that amount can probably be found in Ned Colletti's 70-grade mustache.

Despite that, the Dodgers should end their relationship with Belisario. Here's what I wrote in early November about Belisario and arbitration.

"The biggest question in my eyes is Belisario. He was having a decent season through the end of August (with some significant bumps in the road), posting a 3.18 ERA and a .268 batting average against (not great) in 56 2/3 innings. He was used a lot (64 appearances through the end of August), and he broke down in September. He posted a 7.94 ERA, .302 BAA, .842 OPS against and had a horrific 7:3 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 11 1/3 innings.

He went from somewhat reliable to completely unreliable, and that was no different in the playoffs.

He's set to make $2.3 million this winter, but that money could be better spent with an in-house option like Jose Dominguez or Yimi Garcia. The Dodgers wouldn't dare get rid of a "proven veteran" reliever, but it'd be a nice, forward-thinking move for the team."

Obviously, nothing has changed. The last part is the biggest reason why the Dodgers should let Belisario go. They can fill his spot and get at least replacement-level production from Dominguez or Garcia (likely Dominguez), or even a non-roster invitee who is bound to make the team -- all for a fraction of the cost.

Yes, the Dodgers aren't going to miss $1.8 million (difference between Belisario's projected contract and what Dominguez and Co., could make in 2014), but that doesn't mean they should just throw it away on such an unsure thing.

I was impressed and surprised last year when the Dodgers got rid of Matt Guerrier and cut Brandon League's playing time to go with Chris Withrow and Dominguez. That was a definite change from the way the team had conducted business in the past. I say, let it continue.

Also, non-tendering Belisario opens up a spot on the 40-man roster. The Dodgers have 35 spots occupied (including Belisario's). With the Winter Meetings in eight days, that roster spot could be valuable if the team decides to make some free agent signings and/or trades.

Unfortunately for me and people who share my opinion, this probably won't happen. The potential for Belisario to be a quality reliever is still there, but the uncertainty he brings, coupled with the price tag, means it'd be better if the Dodgers just went with a young guy or NRI than to tender Belisario a contract.

Photo credit: Keith Allison, Wikimedia Commons