Dodgers' bullpen is a problem that needs to be addressed

The Dodger bullpen is a problem. That's not a secret, and it doesn't take a ton of analysis to figure out.

The Dodgers' starting rotation has a 3.26 ERA, fourth-best in baseball. The Dodgers' relief pitchers have a 3.74 ERA, 18th-best in baseball. You could get into fancier stats -- perhaps more appropriate to the question, or that would help break it down as to why it's so. But all that's going to lead you right back to the same place -- the bullpen isn't getting the job done.

The influence of a bullpen on the team's win-loss record explains a good portion of why the Dodgers have been so disappointing in the first third of the season. The bullpen's win-loss record is 4-14. While the win-loss stat is generally a terrible evaluator for relievers, it certainly tells a story here. No other team is doing worse in bullpen games.

The question, as always, is what are you gonna do about it?  Four things can happen, hopefully all in the positive direction.  Injuries heal, prospects get a chance, new blood finds its way in the organization, volatile reliever performance pendulum swings the other way.

One thing that's going to happen is the Dodgers will two quality major league pitchers back from Tommy John surgery soon. One is Chad Billingsley and the other is Scott Elbert. A lot of people forget about him, but he's a lefty who had some major league success in 2011 and 2012. Dr. Neal ElAttrache attached Elbert's elbow ligament in a June 2013 surgery. So he's maybe a month-and-a-half behind Bills (April 2013), although, everyone heals at his own pace.

Elbert, in case he's faded from your memory, is a hard-throwing lefty who gets a lot of strikeouts. He had a 2.43 ERA in 2011 and a 2.20 ERA in 2012. Hey now! But he's not really that good. Earned run average for relievers is an awkward measure of ability -- especially for guys who pitch a lot of partial innings like Elbert. A reasonable expectation might be that he has the talent to put up a ~3.70 ERA going forward. He's probably a solid contributor, but not a shutdown guy.

Meanwhile, what will become of Mr. Billingsley upon his return? If everyone is still healthy, that's six legitimate above-average major league starters. He might begin his path back to the rotation in the bullpen. Sooner rather than later, they'll probably have to convert either Bills or Dan Haren or Josh Beckett to the bullpen. That certainly ought to help in terms of quality bullpen arms. But all three of those guys are pitching for a contract. Haren's contract has a team option that turns into a player option if he throws 180 innings (plus he has incentives he can reach for this year if he stays a starter). So, none are going to be real happy about that kind of move. This gets right back to Don Mattingly's comments about too much focus on individuals, but it is what it is. You'd like to keep all six so when something does happen, you're not relying on Paul Maholm and AAA guys. Someone will go on the disabled list eventually, and there will be starts for all these guys. But in the meantime, there'll be some additional agitation.

What about prospects? The Dodgers have some legit options in the minor leagues. Chris Reed, Yimi Garcia, Colt Hynes, Zach Lee, Matt Magill, Jose Dominguez, Paco Rodriguez. Any of these guys has a good chance of being better than several of the bodies in our bullpen right now. But to get any of them in would require cutting ties with Maholm or Chris Perez. Perez was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. The Dodgers took a chance on him and he's one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. Mahom has more walks than strikeouts. How much more does management need to see of these guys?

What about getting some new blood from outside the organization? A lot of relievers available for nothing but money who were snapped up lately: Todd Coffey, Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg and Luis Ayala. Ned Colletti didn't bite on any of them. Well, there's a few more: Octavio Dotel, Brandon Lyon, Ryan Madson, Christian Martinez and Heath Bell.

Also, Cuban defector Raciel Iglesias is supposedly ready to be in the big leagues right now, but he has not been cleared by the U.S. government to work in America yet. A college pitcher from the draft could get promoted right away in principle, but that seems exceedingly unlikely. Many relievers are probably available in trade -- Jose Veras, Jim Johnson, Grant Balfour -- a lot of teams are having the same problem as the Dodgers. Proven closer is a laughable concept. Cross your fingers and hope we don't overpay in trade. It seems almost inevitable.

Until some of the actions above start to kick in, the Dodgers are left with the same scary crew out there. The overuse issue has been reduced with Clayton Kershaw back from the DL. But the bullpen was actually worse in May (89 innings, 4.16 ERA) than April (95 innings, 3.78 ERA).

So, we just have to hope for things to work themselves out. The well-known volatility of relievers goes both ways. In 16 innings so far in June, the bullpen has a 1.15 ERA and the walk rate is back to respectable (good, even). On the season, the Dodgers' relievers are striking out 24 percent of batters they face (fourth in the league), but walking 11 percent (which is terrible, 25th in the league). They are trending in the right direction each month though, so if the bullpen's control is under control, that's one less frustration to deal with. The feeling of a reliever coming into a close game and proceeding to walk a couple guys en route to blowing the game is one of the lousiest fan experiences.

	K%	BB%	K-BB%
April	26%	12%	14%
May	22%	11%	10%
June	35%	7%	28%
MLB	22%	9%	13%

Photo credit: File photo

Dodgers don't really need another starting pitcher with in-house options

All too predictably, one of the other teams overpaid for Masahiro Tanaka, and he took the money. The Dodgers did the right thing here, saying we’ll pay "X" number of dollars, but no more (where x is probably around six years, $120 million + $20 million release fee).

Given his fastball velocity (good, but not elite) and past workload, the Dodgers harbored substantial questions about how well Tanaka will do in the majors and for how long he will be able to pitch well. The Yankees are pretty likely to suffer the "Winner's Curse" in this auction. Read General Manager Ned Colletti say something smart.

"We had a value to the player and that's where we went. The value of a player involves a lot of factors -- needs, strengths and weaknesses. We put a certain value on the player and when it went beyond that, we knew we weren't going to get the player. We understand that's how the process works."

The Dodgers only had so much use for ho they viewed Tanaka. That translated to a large, but finite number. It’s great to hear rational thought coming from the front office. What does the newly rational Colletti think about adding another starter now?

"I think we're fine either way."

I find myself agreeing, which is a little bit scary given Ned’s track record.

After the first three spots in the rotation, the Dodgers are counting on some combination of Dan Haren, Josh Beckett and minor leaguers until June -- at which point they can count on Haren, Beckett, minor leaguers and Chad Billingsley. Haren finished strong last year, and the Dodgers think it's real. For today, let’s just say he’ll be at least OK and focus on the No. 5 starter.  If the Dodgers keep with the standard routine, they need about 30 starts if those top four stay healthy.

Given their respective injuries, I see about a 35 percent chance of Beckett contributing and an 85 percent chance for Billingsley (starting sometime between May and September). The second half of the season, though, is also when trades tend to happen and prospects tend to be ready. So, the Dodgers will have plenty of options in the second half: I’m looking at you Zach Lee and Ross Stripling (pictured). I don’t get the fuss about Chris Reed, as I doubt he’ll work out in the short-term.

If the Dodgers roll with Stephen Fife in the no-Beckett scenario, and he puts up the 4.50 ERA we expect from him, the Dodgers still probably win seven or eight of those first 15 games when the No. 5 starter is used. If they sign a Bronson Arroyo-type, we might get closer to a 4.10 ERA there, and probably still win eight of those games.

Admittedly, Arroyo will stay in longer and save the bullpen about 20-30 innings. Saving the bullpen actually decreases the chance of winning these games since the bullpen is generally better than him, but presumably increases the chance of winning games later in the year.  Being better than Fife, but not letting the bullpen take over in the sixth inning, it about balances out so the two options both have relatively the same expectation.

The problem with signing Arroyo or somebody like him is you cannot send him to the bullpen or the minors, or start him every other time if you decide you'd rather go a different route. With the four outfielder situation, you can rotate them all through and keep them relatively happy; veteran starting pitchers are not like that.

That's why the Dodgers were in pursuit of Tanaka. If the guy you get is a clear upgrade, then it's problem solved. Haren is the No. 5, while Beckett and Billingsley on "rehab assignment" until needed and ready. And critically, the postseason rotation becomes stronger. But if you sign a "meh" starter, all you've done is create drama. Poor Ted Lilly's panties are still in a bunch over the disrespect the Dodgers dealt him last year when he was in the situation of veteran starter on the roster, but one who was not really needed to start.

The Dodgers are right now so much better, talent-wise, than anybody else in the NL West. They should run away with the division unless things break really poorly for them. They can stand to throw out the "B" team 15 times this season, if everyone is healthy.

If they were really smart about it, they should be planning workloads, with the expectation of playing through October, for their top guys. Pull Clayton Kershaw early in a blowout, even if he's cruising; let lesser relievers get the 1-inning, 3-run saves, etc.

Many people in sports refuse to coast because they will regret it too much if it turns out they missed the playoffs by a small margin, or because they don't feel like they can "turn it on" and off. The way the Cardinals handled their young pitching last year was a nice example.

They didn't work any one guy as hard as they could because they knew the next best option was still OK and because they knew they had a good chance of wanting Michael Wacha, et al, to be at their strongest in September and October.

If the Dodgers want sign another starter, that's their prerogative -- but they don't exactly "need" one.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers lose out on Masahiro Tanaka to the Yankees, which isn't a bad thing

News broke early this morning that the Dodgers were outbid for Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who signed a 7-year pact with the Yankees for $155 million. The $20 million dollar posting fee pushes the total to a whopping $175 million, which puts the Yankees over the $189 million luxury-tax mark for this season.

The deal includes an opt-out clause after the fourth year, along with a full no-trade clause.

The 25-year old went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA last season for the Rakuten Golden Eagles. The deal comes with a lot of risk for the Yankees, as Tanaka has yet to throw a pitch in the major leagues, but the Yankees must have felt confident in his ability to make the transition in order to make him the fifth-highest paid pitcher in MLB history.

The Yankees were much more desperate than the Dodgers for a front-of-the-rotation starter and the deal only makes Clayton Kershaw's 7-year, $215 million extension look even better.

The Dodgers reportedly made an offer of more $100 million for Tanaka, but were not going to break the bank for a pitcher who would slot in as the third- or fourth starter in the rotation.
 
Now, the Dodgers will look at much cheaper options for the back end of the rotation, such as free agent Bronson Arroyo. They may even again explore trading for Rays pitcher David Price, but that is doubtful to actually come to fruition. However, they certainly have the option of going into the season with the current staff that they have, which has Josh Beckett slotted in as the fifth starter, while Chad Billingsley continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.

Ultimately, Tanaka would have been a luxury for a Dodgers team that is already over the luxury tax threshold. With #TanakaWatch all wrapped up, General Manager Ned Colletti can now move on to filling the last remaining holes on the roster before the start of spring training.

Photo credit: Neier, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers, Chris Perez, close to 1-year contract, according to report

Ned Colletti appears to have finally settled on his "high-leverage" reliever with closing experience, as the Dodgers are reportedly close to signing former Indians' closer Chris Perez to a 1-year contract.

Terms aren't yet known, but it'd be a shock if Perez got more than a $4 million contract. He was set to go into his last year of arbitration after earning $7.3 million in 2013. The Indians (wisely) decided to non-tender the burly right-hander.

Perez, 28, is best known for his antics off the field. In August 2012, he confronted an Athletics' fan and had some choice words for said fan. He attempted to mail some marijuana to his home using his dog's name. Seriously.

Oh, and he's not a very good reliever. Well, he used to be, but he was pretty bad in 2013. Perez posted a 4.33 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.3 H/9, 1.8 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 9.0 K/9. And his ERA didn't exactly jive with his 5.08 FIP. He was worth nearly a negative win in 2013 (-0.9). That's pretty hard to do out of the bullpen.

Perez's biggest bugaboo is his propensity for giving home runs. He owns a 1.1 HR/9 for his career, and gave up 11 in 54 innings this past season. His home run-to-flyball rate was an astronomical 20 percent (meaning, for every 100 fly balls he were to give up, 20 of them would over the fence). Dodger Stadium should help him with that problem, but he'll need to keep the ball down to be an effective reliever.

Barring anything unforeseen, Perez is likely slated for seventh-inning duty for the Dodgers.

His repertoire consists of a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a low-80s slider. He threw a curveball sparingly in his first two seasons, but he's been a two-pitch pitcher ever since. FanGraphs rated Perez's fastball at -15.4 last season -- the worst among all MLB relievers with at least 50 innings pitched.

Perez was good in 2010, posting a 1.71 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 63 innings at the age of 24 (despite a 4.0 BB/9). So, there's a chance he could recapture some of what made him an effective reliever just a few years ago.

The move likely means Jose Dominguez will begin the 2014 season in the minors (likely in Albuquerque). Chris Withrow is also a candidate of beginning the season in the minors, if the Dodgers need the active roster space -- but it'd be a mistake. If Perez is replacing, say, Brandon League, I say it's an upgrade. If he's replacing Withrow, it's a big, big mistake.

The Dodgers' 40-man roster is officially at 37, but when the signings of J.P. Howell and Juan Uribe become official, that number will go to 39. The Dodgers still need a couple bench pieces and could be in on Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka. The Dodgers will almost assuredly place Chad Billingsley on the 60-day disabled list at some point, so that could also open up another spot. Otherwwise, I wouldn't get too comfortable if I'm Mike Baxter, Justin Sellers and, to a lesser extent, Javy Guerra.

Photo credit: Keith Allison, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers to sign Dan Haren to 1-year, $10 million contract, and that's great

In the Dodgers' first big signing of the offseason, they are set to ink former Nationals' right-hander Dan Haren to a 1-year, $10 million deal, pending a physical. There's a 2015 vesting option if Haren pitches 180 innings in 2014.

I had the Dodgers signing Haren to a modest $5 million deal for one year with incentives to push it to $8 million in my offseason plan. After Josh Johnson signed with the Padres last week, it looked like Haren could get at least a 2-year deal at $8-10 million annually.

Haren, 33, is coming off a down season with the Nationals, posting a 4.67 ERA in 169 2/3 innings. However, he was solid from July through the rest of the regular season.

July through September (16 games, 15 starts)
3.29 ERA
1.05 WHIP
87 2/3 IP (5.8 IP per start)
7.6 H/9
0.9 HR/9
1.8 BB/9
8.6 K/9
4.67 K/BB

Haren is a hometown kid as he was born in Monterey Park, went to high school at Bishop Amat Memorial and college at Pepperdine University.

At his peak, Haren was a 6-win pitcher (twice) and has been worth nearly 39 wins for his career. He posted WARs of 1.8 and 1.5 the last two seasons. In Los Angeles, he could easily be a 2-3-win pitcher.

With Josh Beckett coming off surgery and Chad Billingsley not set to come back until midseason (probably not even as a starter), the Dodgers needed to do something to shore up the rotation. Haren is a great step toward that.

As of now, Haren is slated to be the team's No. 4 starter. I'm sure that will change once Masahiro Tanaka is posted -- something that could happen sooner rather than later. If the Dodgers win the posting and sign him, Haren could very well be the best No. 5 starter in baseball. A.J. Ellis seems to like the deal.

Excited about Dan Haren. Always admired his professionalism. Also atop "guys I want to catch because I struggle hitting them" list.
— AJ Ellis (@AJEllis17) November 25, 2013

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs pointed this out on Twitter: Haren is basically Tim Lincecum the last couple of years -- 2012 and 2013. Lincecum, albeit younger, signed a 2-year, $35 million deal. In retrospect, the $10 million commitment to Haren looks like a steal.

I'm really happy with this acquisition. I've been a fan of Haren for a long time (ever since his Oakland days). If he can build on his resurgent second half of 2013, this should be a low-risk move for the Dodgers.

Jersey number prediction: He wore 15 for most of his career and 24 while in Oakland (one season) and Anaheim. No. 15 is available on the Dodgers, so I see no reason he won't wear it.

Photo credit: Lane 4 Imaging, Flickr

2013 Los Angeles Dodgers season review: Starting pitchers

A strong starting rotation has long since been the calling card of the Dodgers, and 2013 was no different. A Cy Young award winner, a big-money free agent who paid off and a rookie led this group.

Despite having question marks at the end of the rotation, the Dodgers were still great in this department.

Dodger starting pitchers by the numbers

62-46 W-L

3.13 ERA

1.19 WHIP

8.3 H/9

0.8 HR/9

2.5 BB/9

7.7 K/9

3.07 K/BB

7 CG

Individual performers (minimum 40 IP)

Clayton Kershaw

16-9, 1.83 ERA, 236 IP, 0.91 WHIP, 6.3 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 4.46 K/BB, 194 ERA+

- What can I say about Kershaw that hasn't already been said about the greatest things in life? He's the best pitcher in the galaxy and has another Cy Young award to show for it. Now, about that contract extension...

Grade: A

Zack Greinke

15-4, 2.63 ERA, 177 2/3 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 3.22 K/BB, 135 ERA+

- Despite suffering a broken collar bone, Greinke was better than advertised in his first season with the Dodgers. He's a "No. 1a," not a "No. 2." The next step: making 30-plus starts and logging 200-plus innings.

Grade: A-

Hyun-Jin Ryu

14-8, 3.00 ERA, 192 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 3.14 K/BB, 119 ERA+

- Ryu's debut season went better than anyone could have expected. Ryu established himself as a legitimate No. 3 starter after the Dodgers inked him out of Korea last year. He's going into his age-27 season and should get better.

Grade: B+

Ricky Nolasco (with Dodgers)

8-3, 3.52 ERA, 87 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 3.57 K/BB, 101 ERA+

- Nolasco got off to a great start with the Dodgers before impolding the last three starts. He, at one time, looked like he might challenge Ryu for the team's No. 3 spot in the playoffs. He only appeared in the NLCS, and didn't fare too well. Still, he was well worth the price the Dodgers paid in young players.

Grade: B

Chris Capuano

4-7, 4.26 ERA, 105 2/3 IP, 1.41 WHIP, 10.6 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 3.38 K/BB, 84 ERA+

- Capuano was all-but-traded in the winter only to remain with the Dodgers for the duration of the 2013 season. He had his ups and downs, but was a somewhat valuable piece for the Dodgers in 2013.

Grade: C-

Stephen Fife

4-4, 3.86 ERA, 58 1/3 IP, 1.53 WHIP, 10.6 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, 93 ERA+

- Fife had asserted himself well, despite suffering the same shoulder injury twice this season. He had a sub-3.00 ERA for a majority of his season before having a rough go at it late. Fife is definitely a nice No. 6 or No. 7 starter for the Dodgers at this point.

Grade: B

Josh Beckett

0-5, 5.19 ERA, 43 1/3 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 1.7 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 2.73 K/BB, 69 ERA+

- Beckett had one good start in Arizona (which he lost). Other than that, he was atrocious and missed most of the season with an injury. He's on the books for 2014, so barring an unforeseen trade or release, he'll be around. Reports say he'll be ready for the start of the season. I'm skeptical about that.

Grade: D-

Chad Billingsley

1-0, 3.00 ERA, 12 IP, 1.42 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.8 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.20 K/BB, 123 ERA+

- I'm sure you're asking, "Wait, I thought the minimum number of innings pitched is 40?" It is, but Billingsley gets a write-up because of his and the Dodgers' stubborness. Billingsley was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in late-August 2012 and instead of undergoing Tommy John surgery, he and the Dodgers decided to try to rehab through it. Well, that didn't work and cost Billingsley all but two games of the 2013 season and likely at least half of the 2014 season. I'm one of Billingsley's biggest fans, but this was clearly the wrong call (and many said the same whent he decision was made).

Grade: F 

The rest

Ted Lilly, Grade: F

Matt Magill, Grade: D-

Edinson Volquez, Grade: C

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 35 - Mike Petriello, Billingsley, Kemp, Cruz

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (Dodger Diamond) and I are joined by the great Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness. He was kind enough to stay through the entire recording, which may or may not have been a good idea on his part.

First up, we talk about the most inevitable of the most inevitable -- Chad Billingsley needs Tommy John surgery. Petriello wrote a great post about this happening. I think we were all hoping/expecting it to happen more than two starts into the season.

We also talk about Matt Kemp's struggles and how he may or may not be ready to break out of his slump.

The three of us also talk about the incredibly bad Luis Cruz, which prompted someone on Twitter to play the race card. Sigh.

We also were watching the Dodger game -- a 7-2 victory -- while recording, so you'll hear a little about how Mark Ellis is doing really well.

Finally, we close with some listener questions -- a lot of them directed toward Petriello. Some were good and some were funny.

Big thanks to Petriello for sticking around for the recording. It was great fun.

Libsyn link
Direct link
iTunes link

Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@Dodger_Diamond or @FeelinKindaBlue). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Dodgers place Chad Billingsley on DL, recall Stephen Fife, sadness ensues

That didn't take long at all. We were all skeptical about how long Chad Billingsley's balky elbow would hold up. The answer: two starts.

The Dodgers placed the 28-year-old on the disabled list on Sunday. Stephen Fife was recalled from Triple-A to take his spot.

While I've come around on Fife, this is still a bad situation for the Dodgers, which will seemingly cap off a bad week.

Some are calling for Zach Lee to be recalled. While I"m sure it's tempting, especially with his fast start in Double-A, the Dodgers have other options.

Ted Lilly is set to rejoin the team next week. After the Dodgers and Lilly played a game of chicken, the Dodgers won. In hindsight, that was a good win for the club. Instead of finding a trade partner for Lilly or having to release him, he'll slide into Chris Capuano's spot until the lefty is ready. Then, the Dodgers will have to make yet another decision about the rotation.

For now, Fife is playing the role of Billingsley. He was always going to be first in line from the minors to replace a fallen starter, especially after logging 26 2/3 decent innings with the club last season. If things don't go well with Fife and Capuano isn't fully healed, Matt Magill would be next. He's already on the 40-man roster, so the Dodgers wouldn't have to make a subsequent move to get him on the active roster.

I'm the biggest Magill fan not named Chad Moriyama in the Dodger blog community, but he needs a little more seasoning before he gets the call. He's walked 10 batters in 15 innings. That isn't the kind of walk rate that's conducive to success anywhere, let alone the majors.

It would take a lot of bad luck for Lee to start a game for the Dodgers this season. That, or he'd be so lights-out in Double-A that his prospect status rises again and the Dodgers can't keep him down.

If Zack Greinke weren't out, Billingsley's elbow soreness -- while expected at some point -- wouldn't be as big a deal. Greinke will be fine when he gets back, but there's no telling what the Dodgers are going to get out of Lilly, Capuano and Fife. And that's a scary thought.

So much for that pitching depth, eh? It's really being put to the test right now.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Carlos Quentin suspended 8 games for breaking Zack Greinke's collarbone

That's fair, right? The Padres' second-best hitter (which isn't saying much) idiotically charges the mound and, because of that, the Dodgers lose their No. 2 starter in Zack Greinke for at least eight weeks.

The funny thing is, Quentin will appeal and likely get the suspension reduced to five games. Oh the joy of the Player's Union.

Greinke is having surgery on Saturday, which makes his recovery time longer than it would normally be.

Greinke will have his clavicle fixated. Increases time out. Eight weeks quoted by Dodgers is aggressive.
— Will Carroll (@injuryexpert) April 12, 2013

So, there's that.

The Dodgers are going to have to make due without their No. 2 starter (an ace on two-thirds of MLB teams) for at least eight weeks. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he didn't pitch until after the All-Star break.

The team recalled Shawn Tolleson to replace Greinke on the roster, but that should be short-lived. Ted Lilly will likely be the beneficiary of Greinke's injury.

Chris Capuano is the better pitcher, but he's not stretched out to start after beginning the season in the bullpen. Plus, his skill set is much better coming out of the 'pen than Lilly.

Lilly has been unimpressive in his first two minor-league rehab starts: 12 IP, 17 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 4 HR, 1 BB, 10 K. At least he hasn't walked a bunch of minor-leaguers.

This doesn't bode well for the Dodgers. The clear loss is downgrading from Greinke to Lilly. If Chad Billingsley can give close to Greinke-level production while Zack is out, that would be great. He wasn't bad in his first start of the season. It's just a matter of his elbow holding up.

Jerry Hairston was also suspended for a game, which is no big deal. I'm surprised Matt Kemp didn't get any suspension at all.

Hanley Ramirez's return should help to mitigate the Greinke loss, but he won't be back for another month-plus. Until then, Kemp needs to break out of his slump and hope the rest of the rotation steps it up in Greinke's absence.

Photo credit: wisley, Flickr 

Zack Greinke solid in final spring start, Rodriguez and Sellers make team

This hasn't been the greatest month for Zack Greinke leading up to the start of the 2013 season, but Saturday night was the most encouraging sight from him since he signed his mega contract in the winter.

Greinke made his final spring training start on Saturday against Angels and fared pretty well. It was just his second start in the last 29 days, so it's understandable if he's still a little rusty.

• Greinke's line: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 81 pitches, 45 strikes

The final line is definitely acceptable for a spring training outing, even if the strike percentage could have been better (55.5 percent), but that's being nitpicky at this point.

It was just 18 days ago we were concerned about Greinke's elbow. And while he had a poor first outing on Monday, his outing in Anaheim was just fine.

Greinke hit as high as 95 MPH on the radar gun (according to MLB Gameday) with his fastball and threw his other three pitches consistently.

Greinke makes his regular season Dodger debut on Friday against the Pirates. If anyone would like to donate about $200, I can be in attendance for that game as I'm heading to Southern California this weekend for a wedding (not mine). If not, I guess I'll just have to listen to it on the radio.

As long as he's healthy, Greinke is going to be great this season. He's the perfect complement to Clayton Kershaw.

Roster cuts made, 25-man almost finalized

In somewhat of a surprise, Alex Castellanos and Kevin Gregg were among 11 players reassigned to minor-league camp after Saturday night's game.

Alfredo Amezaga, Stephen Fife, Elian Herrera, Peter Moylan, Josh Wall and Matt Wallach were the others sent down immediately after the game. The rest of the names will be announced by tomorrow's 12 p.m. deadline.

It was also announced the Dodgers will have four players begin the season on the disabled list: Chad Billingsley (short-term stay), Scott Elbert, Ted Lilly and Hanley Ramirez.

This means Paco Rodriguez and Justin Sellers have made the opening day roster. Both are surprising, but Rodriguez is refreshing while Sellers is head-scratching.

The Dodgers, barring a trade, will have three lefties in the bullpen (J.P. Howell and Chris Capuano) to start the season. Rodriguez has shown the ability to get right-handers out just was well as left-handers. His fastball/slider/cutter combination is nasty.

Sellers, who I'm sure was on the chopping block after his Jan. 19 arrest in West Sacramento, made the team due to Ramirez's injury. While Sellers is a good defender, he isn't much with the bat -- like Luis Cruz, but worse.

There's chatter Sellers could play more shortstop than Cruz until Ramirez comes back, thus effectively benching Juan Uribe. If Sellers making this team means less Uribe, then I should be much happier.

The roster is at 28 players. There could be a trade tomorrow (Aaron Harang or Capuano) or some outright releases (Matt Guerrier). It remains to be seen.

Garcia takes the loss

Dodger reliever prospect Yimi Garcia pitched the bottom of the ninth inning tonight and, except for the walk-off home run he allowed to Angels' catcher Hank Conger, looked pretty good.

I have admittedly never seen him pitch, so it was a nice little treat.

Garcia featured a fastball that clocked in at 89-92 MPH, a changeup in the mid-80s and a slider at 79-81 MPH. He struck out the first two batters he faced (both swinging) -- Brendan Harris on a nice, sharp slider and an 89 MPH fastball to Kole Calhoun.

After a ball to Hank Conger, Garcia left an 89 MPH fastball out and over the plate and Conger deposited it into the right-center field seats, ending the game.

Garcia made it to High-A Rancho Cucamonga last year, and I suspect he'll begin the 2013 season there. If so, I should be able to see him in person.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers' SPs Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly likely to start season on DL

Maybe it's a good thing the Dodgers didn't rush to trade Chris Capuano, as Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly are both expected to start the 2013 season on the disabled list.

Billingsley, who is dealing with a potential elbow issue, also is dealing with an injured fingernail on his pitching hand. He was slated to start the second game of the season after Zack Greinke had his Dodger debut pushed back because of a spring training elbow injury.

Instead, Billingsley will be out for a little bit, meaning Capuano will likely be in the Dodgers' rotation -- if Billingsley is out long enough, as the Dodgers won't need a starter for the two weeks of the season.

The Dodgers' rotation sets up like this for the first two weeks (barring anything unforeseen):

• April 1: Clayton Kershaw
• April 2: Hyun-Jin Ryu
• April 3: Josh Beckett
• April 5: Zack Greinke
• April 6: Kershaw
• April 7: Ryu
• April 9: Beckett
• April 10: Greinke
• April 11: Kershaw
• April 12: Ryu
• April 13: Beckett
• April 14: Greinke

Lilly, who was just terrible this spring (9 IP, 17 H, 18 R, 14 ER, 8 BB, 6 K), wasn't going to be much of a factor anyway, but he didn't do anything to help his perceived value on the trade market. He's in the last year of his deal, but I'd be surprised if he made more than a handful of starts for the Dodgers, especially with him seemingly not fully recovered from his shoulder surgery.

I've yet to mention Aaron Harang because I doubt he's still a Dodger by Monday. He'll either be traded to one of the teams that have scouted his starts (Mets, Orioles, Brewers, Mariners) or he'll be designated for assignment. Harang, who's made six relief appearances in his 11-year career, would not fare well out of the bullpen. He needs to be a starter on a team that needs a guy capable of throwing 160 or more innings. Harang is that guy.

When the Dodgers need a starter on April 15, let's hope Billingsley is ready to take the ball. If not, I suppose that are worse options than Capuano -- if he's still a Dodger.

Photo credit: SD Dirk, Flickr