My 2015 Top 100 Dodgers prospects

Oh, hi there. It's been awhile. I just concluded my Top 100 Dodgers' prospect series over at Dodgers Digest. Here's a link to every entry in the series.

• Introduction
• 100-76
• 75-51
• 50-41
• 40-31
• 30-21
• 20-11
• Top 10

I have also updated the sidebar with the new Top 10 (it links to the post at Dodgers Digest until we get the prospects page updated).

The Dodgers' farm system is as strong as it has been in years. It's considered a Top 10 system by most publications, as it has a lot of top-end talent and improved depth. So, head over to Dodgers Digest to check it out (and the supplemental pieces to follow).

Also, it'd be swell if the Dodgers signed Yoan Moncada so I could add him to the list.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Dodgers Digest

What must the Dodgers think of Alex Guerrero's defense?

With a monster weekend, Alex Guerrero has moved into the 1.100 OPS range at Triple-A Albuquerque. Word is that he is just not good enough in the field though to get a promotion. His defensive numbers are not that bad, so what are the Dodgers thinking?

If you're thinking of the present only, clearly a Guerrero/Dee Gordon platoon is the best way to go, and send Chone Figgins back down. You have to keep Justin Turner because he's the only other halfway competent backup shortstop unless you want to put Gordon or Guerrero there (which nobody does) when a backup is needed.

But the Dodgers want Guerrero to keep getting reps at second base. They've said all along they see him as not-yet-acceptable as a major league defensive second baseman, but with a few months of practice hopefully he gets up to at least the level where his bat can compensate for what his glove gives away.

First, his numbers. In 28 games at second base he has a .971 fielding percentage, a 4.75 range factor and a 1.1 Fielding Runs Above Average. That doesn't scream "unacceptable."  It actually sounds quite acceptable. But scouts are seeing something they don't like out there.

Dee Gordon, by contrast, in 20 games last year at 2B for Albuquerque, had a .990 fielding percentage and a 4.9 range factor. In the majors this year, he's slightly below-average in fielding percentage and slightly above-average in range factor, leading to an overall evaluation as "average major-league second baseman." Let's say Guerrero is worse in the field (and obviously on the bases), but stronger at the plate -- who offers the better overall package? Is there a way to get playing time for everyone that deserves it? Is Turner really going to get 300 plate appearances this year for the Dodgers?

Kindly, I think Gordon is capable of about a .275/.330/.355 triple-slash line going forward, which is about 10 percent below an average Major League hitter, and so costs the team about 8 runs over a full season, relative to average. His baserunning is historic, though. He looks capable of about +11 runs there. So, we're up to +3 runs above-average, offensively. His defense is maybe just a little below average for a second baseman -- so he'd probably give back five runs there compared to an average major league second baseman.  Now, in the full WAR framework, an average major league second baseman is worth two runs more than an average player, So, we get to an exactly average major league player, all in all. It's a kind of head in the oven/feet in the freezer kind of average, but average nonetheless when you add everything up.

Guerrero, on the other hand, can hit about Major League average, maybe better. If he's at least an average baserunner then, he'd have to be no worse than two runs below average over the course of a season to be the team's best option. Despite his stats, he is, by all accounts, not that. The last thing the Dodgers want is to get weaker on defense right now. But, if it came with enough bat to be worth it, that'd be something to consider.

Let's say that the scouts are right and he'd be a terrible second baseman right now, -20 runs below average over a season. How good of a hitter do you have to be to make that up? Pretty good. Say .360/.480 or so. I don't think he's that good. What if he was only bad at second base, -10 runs over a season? A .340/.450 line would make up for that. That's probably the upper bound of how good he might be. So in this case, it's probably true that there's no huge advantage to making Guerrero the every day second baseman over Gordon today.

There would be a huge advantage per game to be had by playing Guerrero as the right-handed side of the platoon, since Gordon is horrible against lefties and Turner is Turner. Having Guerrero available as a pinch-hitter sure would change the complexion of a lot of games. But the Dodgers want him to get better at second and that takes playing games at second. If they had a Bill & Ted phone booth, they'd get him a bunch of games at 3B too and turn him into a utility infielder overnight (they've started giving him some time at SS, presumably so they can see what they've got there and so he doesn't completely get out of practice). But they don't. He arrived in America only when he did, and the best the Dodgers can really hope is they get their act together and take charge of the playoff race so that they can have this ideal situation in place come September/October.

Same story for swapping out Zach Lee for Paul Maholm. Similar story for swapping out Joc Pederson for one of our lefty outfielders. Except in the case of Pederson, he has nothing much left to learn at Triple-A. He has to do the rest of his learning in the majors. So, if we want him contributing down the stretch, the sooner Ned Colletti can get this man out of town, the better. And if you can get a reliever that won't walk every other batter, or a late-inning defensive infielder back, that's a victory.

I'm with Ethier at Point Break Live... He's playing Johnny Utah #knittigfactory #Bklyn pic.twitter.com/iZ6OknZGtF
— David Vassegh (@THEREAL_DV) May 19, 2014

 Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Dodgers Digest

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 68 - Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," I interview Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus about the BP Top 101 and his Top 10 Dodgers' prospects.

Parks is BP's prospect guru, and was kind enough to give me 30 minutes of his time to indulge me about prospects.

First, we talk about Julio Urias' placement in the BP 101 (35). Then we touch on the others who made the BP 101 (Corey Seager, 44; Joc Pederson, 50; and Zach Lee, 84).

After, we go in-depth into the Dodgers' Top 10. I ask him some detailed questions and throw in my 2 cents, for whatever that's worth (probably less than 2 cents).

I close by asking him about the system overall, which continues to improve.

Baseball Prospectus' prospect coverage is unparalleled. Parks has done a fantastic job taking over for Kevin Goldstein and has put together some really good talent evaluators who can write a little bit.
Libsyn link

Direct link
iTunes link

Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@Dodger_Diamond or @FeelinKindaBlue). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Dodgers don't really need another starting pitcher with in-house options

All too predictably, one of the other teams overpaid for Masahiro Tanaka, and he took the money. The Dodgers did the right thing here, saying we’ll pay "X" number of dollars, but no more (where x is probably around six years, $120 million + $20 million release fee).

Given his fastball velocity (good, but not elite) and past workload, the Dodgers harbored substantial questions about how well Tanaka will do in the majors and for how long he will be able to pitch well. The Yankees are pretty likely to suffer the "Winner's Curse" in this auction. Read General Manager Ned Colletti say something smart.

"We had a value to the player and that's where we went. The value of a player involves a lot of factors -- needs, strengths and weaknesses. We put a certain value on the player and when it went beyond that, we knew we weren't going to get the player. We understand that's how the process works."

The Dodgers only had so much use for ho they viewed Tanaka. That translated to a large, but finite number. It’s great to hear rational thought coming from the front office. What does the newly rational Colletti think about adding another starter now?

"I think we're fine either way."

I find myself agreeing, which is a little bit scary given Ned’s track record.

After the first three spots in the rotation, the Dodgers are counting on some combination of Dan Haren, Josh Beckett and minor leaguers until June -- at which point they can count on Haren, Beckett, minor leaguers and Chad Billingsley. Haren finished strong last year, and the Dodgers think it's real. For today, let’s just say he’ll be at least OK and focus on the No. 5 starter.  If the Dodgers keep with the standard routine, they need about 30 starts if those top four stay healthy.

Given their respective injuries, I see about a 35 percent chance of Beckett contributing and an 85 percent chance for Billingsley (starting sometime between May and September). The second half of the season, though, is also when trades tend to happen and prospects tend to be ready. So, the Dodgers will have plenty of options in the second half: I’m looking at you Zach Lee and Ross Stripling (pictured). I don’t get the fuss about Chris Reed, as I doubt he’ll work out in the short-term.

If the Dodgers roll with Stephen Fife in the no-Beckett scenario, and he puts up the 4.50 ERA we expect from him, the Dodgers still probably win seven or eight of those first 15 games when the No. 5 starter is used. If they sign a Bronson Arroyo-type, we might get closer to a 4.10 ERA there, and probably still win eight of those games.

Admittedly, Arroyo will stay in longer and save the bullpen about 20-30 innings. Saving the bullpen actually decreases the chance of winning these games since the bullpen is generally better than him, but presumably increases the chance of winning games later in the year.  Being better than Fife, but not letting the bullpen take over in the sixth inning, it about balances out so the two options both have relatively the same expectation.

The problem with signing Arroyo or somebody like him is you cannot send him to the bullpen or the minors, or start him every other time if you decide you'd rather go a different route. With the four outfielder situation, you can rotate them all through and keep them relatively happy; veteran starting pitchers are not like that.

That's why the Dodgers were in pursuit of Tanaka. If the guy you get is a clear upgrade, then it's problem solved. Haren is the No. 5, while Beckett and Billingsley on "rehab assignment" until needed and ready. And critically, the postseason rotation becomes stronger. But if you sign a "meh" starter, all you've done is create drama. Poor Ted Lilly's panties are still in a bunch over the disrespect the Dodgers dealt him last year when he was in the situation of veteran starter on the roster, but one who was not really needed to start.

The Dodgers are right now so much better, talent-wise, than anybody else in the NL West. They should run away with the division unless things break really poorly for them. They can stand to throw out the "B" team 15 times this season, if everyone is healthy.

If they were really smart about it, they should be planning workloads, with the expectation of playing through October, for their top guys. Pull Clayton Kershaw early in a blowout, even if he's cruising; let lesser relievers get the 1-inning, 3-run saves, etc.

Many people in sports refuse to coast because they will regret it too much if it turns out they missed the playoffs by a small margin, or because they don't feel like they can "turn it on" and off. The way the Cardinals handled their young pitching last year was a nice example.

They didn't work any one guy as hard as they could because they knew the next best option was still OK and because they knew they had a good chance of wanting Michael Wacha, et al, to be at their strongest in September and October.

If the Dodgers want sign another starter, that's their prerogative -- but they don't exactly "need" one.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers should entertain a Homer Bailey trade if they don't sign Tanaka

The Dodgers have a surplus of outfielders. The Reds need an outfielder. There has to be a match here, no?

Maybe, but probably not one you're thinking of.

While it'd be easy to try to mock up trade scenarios involving Andre Ethier, the Reds aren't really looking to add significant payroll at the moment. In fact, they're potentially looking to trade Homer Bailey to free up payroll, and to get something for the pending free agent.

The Reds acknowledge it'd be hard to sign Bailey to a long-term deal, and he's due a raise from the $5.35 million he made in 2013 to somewhere in the neighborhood of $9-plus million. With Brandon Phillips locked up for $50 million over the next four years, the savings the Reds desire are going to have to come somewhere.

Bailey, 27, had a slow start to his career, posting a 4.89 ERA in his first 436 innings. The former No. 7 overall pick in the 2004 MLB Draft looked like a bust. However, a solid 2012 campaign followed by an even better 2013 campaign is setting him up to be one of the better right-handed pitchers just entering his prime.

Bailey was a 2.5-win player in 2012 and was nearly a 4-win player in 2013 while he posted a 3.31 FIP that outperformed his 3.49 ERA. From 2012-13, Bailey was able to improve in every pitching category. His ERA went from 3.68 to 3.49, his WHIP from 1.24 to 1.12, his hits per nine innings from 8.9 to 7.8, his home runs per nine from 1.1 to 0.9, his strikeouts per nine from 7.3 to 8.6, his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 3.23 to 3.69 and his FIP from 3.97 to 3.31.

A reason for Bailey's improved performance in 2013 could be due to his improved fastball. FanGraphs rated it at 18.9 runs above average, which was good for sixth-best in the majors among starting pitchers. His velocity on the four-seamer increased to an average of 94.1 MPH -- seventh-best among starters. His slider regressed a bit this year from the previous two seasons in that category -- from 10.9 and 10.1 in 2011 and 2012 to 2.8 in 2013.

The Dodgers are in on Masahiro Tanaka, unless they aren't. There's actually no clear indication one way or the other. If the Dodgers fail to land Tanaka, Bailey could be a nice alternative.

Here are some of the results of an informal Twitter poll I posed today which had the Dodgers sending Joc Pederson to Cincinnati for Bailey.

Twitter poll: If the #Dodgers don't sign Masahiro Tanaka, would you trade Joc Pederson for Homer Bailey? #Dodgers #Reds
— Dustin Nosler (@FeelinKindaBlue) January 6, 2014

@FeelinKindaBlue no.
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) January 6, 2014

@FeelinKindaBlue nah
— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) January 6, 2014

@FeelinKindaBlue No
— David Young (@DavidYoungTBLA) January 6, 2014

@FeelinKindaBlue #yes
— Jake Flores (@jakeflores32) January 6, 2014

@FeelinKindaBlue yes if extension were signed
— Josh Elijah (@AR0D_) January 6, 2014

@FeelinKindaBlue do the No votes realize just how good Bailey is? Straight up? Over the top yes.
— Cam Junker (@camjunker) January 6, 2014

@FeelinKindaBlue Nope. Rather see Billingsley, Lee, Magill & Fife get their chance
— Saturnius (@PaxNostrum) January 6, 2014

@FeelinKindaBlue absolutely not you monster D:
— Symon Bernstein (@symon) January 6, 2014

@mike_petriello @FeelinKindaBlue - Hell no.
— DodgerBytes (@DodgerBytes) January 6, 2014

Mostly "no," but a few "yes" votes spliced in. It isn't as one-sided as some may think.

I've grown rather fond of Pederson, especially after his fantastic 2013 season. I don't especially want the Dodgers to trade him. But if it means getting a stud starter like Bailey, it'd be something I would consider.

Bailey is a free agent after the season, so if the Dodgers were to sign him to an extension, it'd make the deal that much better for them. If they don't, they can give him a qualifying offer after the 2014 season and either negotiate a long-term deal or earn a compensatory draft pick in the 2015 draft.

Remember, Bailey has thrown more than half his innings in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and the numbers reflect that (4.74 ERA at home, 3.73 ERA on the road).

It's clear the Dodgers aren't going to move a guy like Ethier or Carl Crawford, and Pederson won't do the Major League team much good in Triple-A. Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig are penned in as starters, provided they're healthy (i.e., provided Kemp's healthy), and Scott Van Slyke is likely the team's No. 5 outfielder if the Dodgers keep all of their high-priced ones.

This wouldn't be making a trade for the sake of making a trade, either. Bailey is a quality No. 3 starter in the game and seems to be getting better with age -- and he's entering his prime. He'd be the Dodgers' No. 4 starter, and a damn good one.

I don't feel especially comfortable with the Dodgers turning to Josh Beckett to be their No. 5 starter in 2014. I'd rather have Zach Lee than a guy like Beckett or someone else who doesn't at least have potential. But if the Dodgers can't land Tanaka, a Pederson-for-Bailey swap is something I would consider.

Photo credit: Wknight94, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers invite top prospects to 7th annual Winter Development Program

As they've done for seven straight years, the Dodgers are holding their Winter Development Program at Dodger Stadium, beginning Sunday.

The main goals of the program are to help Dodger minor-leaguers not only prepare for the majors, but also to prepare themselves for the off-the-field aspect of being a Major League Baseball player.

From the Dodgers' official press release:

"Fifteen of the club’s top minor league prospects will be in Los Angeles for the event, which includes seminars with Dodger staffers and workouts that focus on fundamentals, strength training and conditioning. Throughout the week, Dodger prospects will familiarize themselves with the greater Los Angeles area through social events and a community service visit to A Place Called Home, a youth center in South Los Angeles. The program is highlighted by sessions with Don Mattingly, Tommy Lasorda, Don Newcombe, Maury Wills, Eric Karros, Shawn Green, Stan Kasten and Ned Colletti and the annual Legends Dinner with Dodger alumni."

The attendees are as follows:

Pedro Baez
Chili Buss
Jose Dominguez
Yimi Garcia
Zach Lee
Matt Magill
Jarret Martin
Pratt Maynard
Chris O'Brien
Joc Pederson
Chris Reed
Miguel Rojas
Seth Rosin
Scott Schebler
Ross Stripling

Lee, Magill, Pederson and Reed all attended the 2013 Winter Development Program.

Baez, Garcia and Martin were added to the 40-man roster in November, so they were locks to be there. Lee and Schebeler were the Dodgers (and my) minor-league pitcher and player of the year, respectively.

Rosin was acquired from the Mets after they selected him from the Phillies in December's Rule 5 Draft. Stripling is the best prospect of the first-timers.

Magill threw a handful of games with the Dodgers, while Dominguez pitched briefly with them last season before suffering a quad injury. Buss had the smallest cup of coffee of any of the minor-leaguers invited to the program.

O'Brien

The two catchers -- Maynard and O'Brien -- both played in the Arizona Fall League (as did Garcia and Martin).

The most interesting -- and I use that term loosely -- is the inclusion of Rojas. General Manager Ned Colletti mentioned Rojas by name in a radio interview a couple weeks ago as someone who could be in the second base mix if Alexander Guerrero isn't ready to go. I blew off the thought, as did others. But the invitation to the program leads me to believe there's at least been some talk about him either being a utility infielder or the team's second baseman come March in Australia.

The Dodgers are really doing this just to spite me. I still maintain there's no way Rojas is on the Dodgers' roster come opening day. His glove may be really good (though, it probably isn't even a 65 or 70), but one has to at least hit a little to be a major leaguer. Rojas has displayed minimal ability to hit at the minor-league level. If I can say something nice about his offense, it's the fact he's walks a little (7.6 percent) and doesn't strikeout a whole lot (11.4 percent).

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers' minor-league coaching staffs have a lot of MLB experience

The Dodgers made a number of changes in the minor-league coaching ranks and announced said changes on Sunday.

There was a vacancy at the Triple-A level after former Albuquerque Isotopes' manager Lorenzo Bundy was promoted to third base coach. The Dodgers filled that hole with a former Major League catcher. There are new managers at every level of the Dodgers' minor-league system (save the Dominican Summer League).

Triple-A Albuquerque
Manager: Damon Berryhill
Hitting coach: Franklin Stubbs
Pitching coach: Glenn Dishman

Double-A Chattanooga
Manager: Razor Shines
Hitting coach: Shawn Wooten
Pitching coach: Scott Radinsky

High-A Rancho Cucamonga
Manager: P.J. Forbes
Hitting coach: Mike Eylward
Pitching coach: Matt Herges

Low-A Great Lakes
Manager: Bill Haselman
Hitting coach: Johnny Washington
Pitching coach: Bill Simas



Pioneer League Ogden
Manager: Lee Tinsley
Hitting coach: Leo Garcia
Pitching coach: Greg Sabat

Arizona League Dodgers
Manager: John Shoemaker
Hitting coach: Henry Cruz
Pitching coach: Hector Berrios

-----

The most interesting move is Berryhill jumping from the short-season ball to the highest level of the minors. Berryhill managed Ogden for the last five years. He guided the Raptors to four playoff appearances. He's a former catcher, so there's no doubt he has the smarts for the job He's a fine choice to replace Bundy.

Stubbs returns as Isotopes' hitting coach. Last season was his first with club and sixth with the organization. He should have a good opportunity to work with Joc Pederson. Dishman has the unenviable position as the Isotopes' pitching coach. But it's his fourth year in that position, so he must be doing something right. Maybe he can make Zach Lee's stay a little more enjoyable than is anticipated.

Shines earned a promotion from Low-A to Double-A, where he figures to manage some familiar faces. He managed the Loons last season to the playoffs. His son Devin Shines is an outfielder in the organization.

Wooten, a former major leaguer most notably with Anaheim, will have the task of making guys like Scott Schebler and Darnell Sweeney into better hitting prospects. Former Dodger Radinsky takes over as the team's pitching coach. He figures to work with some of the better Dodger pitching prospects in 2014, including guys like Onelki Garcia, Chris Reed and Ross Stripling.

Forbes takes over for Carlos Subero and could have the most talent of any Dodger minor-league manager. He should have Corey Seager and Julio Urias to start the season, as well as Chris Anderson and Tom Windle.

Eylward gets bumped up from Great Lakes, where he was the hitting coach, to Rancho Cucamonga, where he will be the hitting coach. Herges returns third season as the Quakes' pitching coach.

Haselman managed the Inland Empire 66ers (Angels' affiliate and former Dodgers' affiliate) the last two seasons. He went to UCLA.

Washington was the Quakes' hitting coach this past season and also was the Glendale Desert Dogs' (Arizona Fall League) hitting coach in 2013. Simas returns for his second campaign as the Loons' pitching coach.

Tinsley is coming over from the Cubs for his first year with the organization. He played 14 years in the big leagues. Shoemaker has been with the Dodgers' organization in some capacity since 1977.

-----

Overall, some really nice hires. If these guys can continue to develop and improve the prospects through their respective minor-league journeys, then their work will be done.

Zach Lee should be the Dodgers' No. 5 starter in 2014 if no Tanaka, Price

It's Dec. 20, and the Dodgers still haven't acquired a big-name starting pitcher. It isn't necessarily a huge need, but it'd be nice to have one more big arm in the rotation.

The Dan Haren signing was really good, but I envision him as the team's No. 5 starter rather than its No. 4. But there's a very real scenario in which he's the No. 4 starter, and that isn't the worst thing in the world.

The market has been quiet. David Price rumors abound, and I'm not as opposed to him as I was earlier this offseason (or as others, including the Dodgers, it seems). Masahiro Tanaka may or may not be posted (somewhat reminiscent of the Alexander Guerrero situation). 

Obviously, Tanaka would be the preference. He's younger than Price and wouldn't cost prospects. Price would cost prospects and a length contract extension. With the Dodgers still needing to lock up Clayton Kershaw (hurry up already!) and Hanley Ramirez (could be soon), a Price extension might be No. 3 on the "To Do" list.

Some have suggested Price would be an insurance policy in case Kershaw -- somehow -- decides to leave via free agency. After all, he's "curious" about the prospect, and who could blame him?

If the Dodgers don't acquire Tanaka or Price, it's unlikely the Dodgers would sign a free agent. Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana both have draft pick compensation tied to them, while the team has shown little-to-no-interest in Matt Garza. Aside from that trio, there isn't really any starter worth signing.

Josh Beckett would be the No. 5 starter if the season were to start today. But let's be honest: No one wants to watch Beckett pitch anymore.

He's probably done, but he's also due nearly $16 million in 2014. There might be the obligation to pitch him -- and the Dodgers probably will -- but they should spare us the inevitable mound meltdown by Beckett. He had one good start in 2013 and was surprisingly solid for the Dodgers in 2012. But, as Daniel Brim laid out today on his blog (seriously, check it out), the history of those who attempt to come back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery don't tend to have much success.

My alternative: Zach Lee.

Lee, 22, is pretty much MLB-ready and, if he isn't traded, he should be given serious consideration for the No. 5 spot in the rotation. He enjoyed his best season to date in the Southern League, posting a 3.22 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 2.2 BB/9 and a 8.3 K/9. All of those numbers were career-bests for the Dodgers' 2010 first-round pick. He's getting better every year he pitches.

If he begins the season in the minors, the Dodgers could conceivably send him to Albuquerque, as they did with Matt Magill last season. Almost everyone knows the Pacific Coast League is none too friendly to pitchers, and the Dodgers tend to avoid sending their top starter prospects there. However, if Lee went back to Chattanooga, it'd be his third stint with the Lookouts. He doesn't have much more to prove.

His stuff ticked up slightly in 2013, and he definitely has a future as a starting pitcher. He won't be a No. 1 or No. 2, but I see him as a low-end No. 3 or high-end No. 4 at worse. Plus, it'd be nice to see the Dodgers give a youngster a shot. They haven't really done so since Kershaw and Chad Billingsley (through no fault of their own).

If I'm Lee, I'd attach myself to Zack Greinke's hip in spring training and absorb everything the cerebral starter has to offer.

The Dodgers appear committed to keeping the farm system in tact. If they want to see what Lee's true worth is, this might be the time to find out. If the truly want to model their farm system and development after the Cardinals, this would be a fine time to start.

As for what to do with Beckett: I'm not sure. Make him the long reliever? Eat almost all his contract to trade him? Designate him for assignment? All of them seem like viable options. Honestly, I don't particularly care. I want the best 25 guys out there, and Lee profiles to be better than Beckett is right now. Beckett won't make-or-break the Dodgers' season.

I really hope the Dodgers land Tanaka. I'd be OK with them landing Price. If they must include Corey Seager to land Price, then I'd like to see them sign Aledmys Diaz to replace him (that's pretty much the only scenario in which that is acceptable, but it still isn't preferred). If those two options fall through, Lee is my guy. And I've been higher on Lee than most in the last couple of years (even if he won't be my No. 1 prospect for 2014).

One way or another, I'd rather not see Beckett throw another pitch as a starter for the Dodgers again. It's nothing personal, it's just the fact that Lee is the better option.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

David Price to the Dodgers: Talking myself into the idea of acquiring him

All this winter, I've been pining for Masahiro Tanaka. He's the guy I really want the Dodgers to sign. Yet here we are on Dec. 12, and Tanaka has yet to be posted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Nippon Professional Baseball league.

It's not entire the NPB's fault, as it has been a long road negotiating a new posting system with MLB. But the president of the league doesn't want the Golden Eagles to post Tanaka and the new $20 million maximum bid might not be enough to satisfy them.

At this rate, I'm about ready to move on from Tanaka (though, the Diamondbacks' reported interest makes me reconsider) and onto Rays' ace David Price.

If you've ever read this blog, you know I'm a prospect hoarder. I'm not one for advocating for gutting the farm system -- and that wouldn't need to happen here. But, if the Dodgers (and myself) want the team to acquire Price, they'll have to give up some good prospects. But more on that later.

After the Mariners signed Robinson Cano on Friday, I was all but certain Price would end up in Seattle.

The #Rays now only have to face Cano six times a year and should get Taijuan Walker for Price. They're the real winners in this. #Mariners
— Dustin Nosler (@FeelinKindaBlue) December 6, 2013

But, the Mariners seem really resistant to trading Taijuan Walker (hard to blame them), so they're seemingly out on Price. The Diamondbacks would likely have to include Archie Bradley, something a team with a thin farm system might be hesitant to do. The Rangers don't appear to be all that interested, either.

That basically leaves the Dodgers.While the Rays don't have to trade Price right now, it seems if they want to  move him before the start of the season, it's going to be to LA.

Daniel Brim had an excellent post on why the Dodgers should steer clear of Price. It give me pause, but I'm not as concerned as he is with Price's performance going forward.

"The above graph from Brooks Baseball shows Price’s pitch velocity month-by-month since 2010. Other than some minor differences (Price phased out his slider completely after 2010), the only year that sticks out is 2013. After averaging 96.55mph in 2012, his fastball velocity dropped all the way to 94.27mph this year. His sinker (which he throws more than any other pitch) dropped from 96.23mph to 94.24mph. While the velocity came back a little bit after returning from the DL, it never really got back up to his career levels and began to tail off again at the end of the year."

While the decreased velocity is concerning (really, look at that top-right corner -- it's a little scary), Price still throws his fastball with the 11th-highest velocity of any pitcher in baseball. Whether he suffered from dead arm, had a mechanical flaw or just flat-out threw his fastball slower in 2013 remains to be seen. But Price has never been a big-time strikeout pitcher.

His career-high in strikeouts per nine innings is 8.7, established in 2011 and 2012. Prior to 2013, it was 8.3 per nine. In 2013, it was 7.3 -- still a respectable number, but obviously not ideal.

Coupled with Price's decreased velocity and decreased whiff rate came a reduced walk rate. While he's never been one to walk a ton of hitters, he took it to a new level in 2013. From 2008-12, he walked 3.0 batters per nine innings. By comparison, Clayton Kershaw walked 3.3 per nine in that same time. Price's walk rate was 1.3 per nine innings in 2013. That's Cliff Lee territory.

Price's groundball rate decreased from 2012 (53.1 percent) to 2013 (44.9), but his HR/FB rate also fell (10.5 to 8.6).

Predictably, Price became a little more hittable in 2013. His hits per nine inning increased by more than one, but his WHIP dropped by .01 points. If the object of pitching is to limit the number of baserunners, Price was better at that in 2013 than he was in 2012.

Brim makes another cogent point -- something I hope A.J. Ellis and Tim Federowicz can work on in 2014.

"Then there’s the factors that are beyond Price’s control. This Sky Kalkman piece goes into some of these factors. While the Dodger Stadium and Tropicana field are similarly pitcher-friendly, the defensive differences between the Dodgers and Rays are interesting. The Dodgers have a higher Defensive Runs Saved, while the Rays have a higher team Ultimate Zone Rating. However, the Dodgers do not save as many runs by using defensive shifts as the Rays do (source).

Additionally, he notes that the Rays have a pretty significant advantage in pitch framing. The Rays’ two primary catchers last year were Jose Molina and Jose Lobaton. According to statcorner.com (the only place where I could find a readily available source of framing statistics), Jose Molina had 18.1 framing runs above average and Jose Lobaton had 0.3 framing runs above average in 2013. The Dodgers’ primary catchers, A.J. Ellis and Tim Federowicz, had -7.4 and -3.9 framing runs above average, respectively. Research into the value of pitch framing is still relatively new, and the magnitude of the impact is still not fully known. But David Price gained some statistical advantage from Jose Molina’s pitch framing that the Dodgers’ backstops cannot match."

If Price benefited from framing that much, then it could be an issue for the Dodgers or whichever team acquires him -- if they don't have a catcher who excels at framing.

So, what would it take to acquire the one of the best pitchers in baseball? A lot.

In a matchup of Andrew Friedman (Rays' GM) and Colletti, the easy money is on Friedman. However, Colletti (and co.) has proved himself somewhat capable since Guggenheim and guys took over.

First, I'd remove Corey Seager from the table. Period. Not because he's too young to sit at the adult's table, but because I'm not ready to part ways with him. If the Dodgers had another third baseman or shortstop -- in the majors or minors -- I'd be much more willing to part with him. The fact is, third base has been a massive black hole since the days of Ron Cey (despite some nice tenures from Adrian Beltre and Casey Blake). Seager is the team's future at the position -- a position that's becoming harder and harder to fill, it seems. I mean, Juan Uribe is the best free agent third baseman on the market. That really says something.

I'd also be hesitant to include Julio Urias in the deal if for no other reason that we've yet to see enough of the 17-year-old. He could be the next Johan Santana or the next Brien Taylor. Moving him would be a tough decision for the Dodgers to make.

Joc Pederson would be the headliner for me. He was ranked as the Dodgers' top prospect by Baseball America and is a Top 30-40 prospect in baseball. Yes, the Rays got Wil Myers for James Shields last year, but what happened last year shouldn't have much bearing on Price-to-LA trade talks. It's not the Dodgers' fault the Royals overpaid a bit.

Zach Lee would also head Tampa's way, giving the Rays a quality starter who's close to the majors. Lee is underrated by most (in my eyes) and could reach the Tampa rotation in 2014. I'd also throw in Chris Reed because, despite a solid season in Double-A, I'm still not terribly high on the former first-rounder from Stanford.

Finally, I'd include Jose Dominguez. The Rays might want Chris Withrow, but I'd feel more comfortable sending Dominguez, whose fastball is second to only Bruce Rondon's in the majors.

Proposal
To Tampa Bay: Pederson, Lee, Reed, Dominguez
To LA: Price
Note: That's three Top-8 prospects, plus one just on the outside. Not a bad haul for Tampa.

Alternative proposals
To Tampa Bay: Urias, Pederson, Reed, Dominguez
To Los Angeles: Price, Taylor Guerrieri
Note: I'm aware he's out for 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and he's facing a 50-game performance-enhancing drug suspension, but he still has a ton of talent and I liked him in the 2011 draft.

To Tampa Bay: Nick Franklin, Urias, Reed, Dominguez
To Los Angeles: Price
Note: Franklin would come over from Seattle in an Andre Ethier trade.

To Tampa Bay: Urias, Lee, Reed
To Los Angeles: Price

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I don't know if I'm even in the ballpark (probably not), but I think Price could be had without having to give up both Seager and Urias (or either of them). If they absolutely must include one of them, I'd easily send Urias before Seager. Easily.

Price is really good, but he's not on the level of a Kershaw. While their situations are a little different, I'd expect much more in a Kershaw trade than a Price trade.

And before you say "That's too much to give up for Price," just remember -- the Dodger rotation would look like this:

Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
David Price
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Dan Haren

Best. In. Baseball. I'd rather have Tanaka because he wouldn't cost anything in trade, but Price would be a fantastic consolation prize.

Photo credit: Wknight94, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers' Winter Meetings shopping list: Starting pitcher - Tanaka (or bust), Price, Garza

In the second of a four-part series, I look at who and what the Dodgers should be looking for when Monday's Winter Meetings come 'round.

I looked at third base on Friday, and they certainly won't need a shortstop if the rumors of a Hanley Ramirez contract extension are true (pretty sure they are).

• Third base
• Starting pitcher
• Bench pieces
• Left-handed RP and/or power right-handed RP

Masahiro Tanaka

There's really only one starting pitcher the Dodgers should be in on -- Tanaka. With the new posting system between Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball seemingly close, it may not be up to the Dodgers whether they want to go after Tanaka.

His parent club Rakuten Golden Eagles are said to be hesitant to post him because they'd only get $20 million in a posting fee.

All the money in the world couldn't change this fact. Under the new rules, MLB teams can post a maximum of $20 million for players posted by NPB clubs. If Tanaka isn't posted, he won't be a free agent until after the 2015 season. The Golden Eagles could choose to post him next winter if they want, but they also risk a year of taxing Japanese league pitching on the 25-year-old's arm. It's a gamble, but a gamble that might be worth it because he's the best pitcher in Japan.

I've written extensively about Tanaka here and at Yahoo Sports, so my thoughts should be well-known. I want the Dodgers to get this guy. I believe he's their No. 1 offseason target and would slot in quite nicely as the No. 4 starter (for now).

If he is posted, the Dodgers -- and probably 10-15 other teams (at least) -- will post $20 million to negotiate with him. In the end, the Dodgers should be able to beat out the likes of the Yankees, Cubs and Rangers. I predict a 6-year, $108 million deal.

David Price

Price might be the second-best left-handed pitcher in the game (behind that Clayton Kershaw fella). So, why am I hesitant for the Dodgers to go after him?

I wrote about it at Yahoo in October. Basically, the Dodgers would likely have to give up one of Corey Seager or Julio Urias, plus a combination of Joc Pederson, Zach Lee, Chris Reed and Chris Withrow. It just doesn't seem to make that much sense

Price is a luxury at this point, as is Tanaka. The difference is, Price would cost prospects, and the Dodgers seem hellbent on preserving the system (which is great).

The former Cy Young award winner will get traded this winter, it's just a matter of where he lands. After Robinson Cano signed his mega contract with the Mariners, I'd put my money on them. If they offer Taijuan Walker in a package for Price, there's almost no way the Dodgers could beat that.

Matt Garza

If the Dodgers must go the "real" free agent route, I guess Garza would be the best option. He struggled after being dealt from the Cubs to the Rangers, but he's a quality pitcher. He won't be worth whatever contract he gets, but he'll be a solid No. 3-4 starter for the next four-plus years.

The Garza market should heat up after Price is traded and it's determined whether Tanaka is posted. Then, he could be the most attractive free agent starter because there's no draft pick compensation tied to him like there is with Ervin Santna and Ubaldo Jimenez.

I wrote about starting pitcher options last month as well. They're not pretty.

Photo credit:WKnight94, Wikimedia Commons

Analyzing Baseball America's Dodgers' Top 10 prospects list for 2014

Baseball America is in full prospect-ranking season, and the Dodgers' Top 10 list officially drops online Monday.

However, the print publication (yes, print media still exist) came out on Tuesday to give us an early look at the list.

Big thanks to silverwidow99 for making the list public.

1. OF Joc Pederson

2. SS Corey Seager

3. LHP Julio Urias

4. RHP Zach Lee

5. RHP Chris Anderson

6. RHP Chris Withrow

7. 2B Alexander Guerrero

8. LHP Chris Reed

9. LHP Onelki Garcia

10. RHP Ross Stripling

I had originally planned to write a quick piece predicting the list, but I waited to long.

After a strong 2013 and winter ball season, Pederson lands at No. 1 -- and I like it. He's now established as a Top 50 prospect, and probably closer to Top 30.

Seager has the most potential of anyone on this list, especially if he's able to stick at shortstop (which he probably won't).

Yes, even more potential than Urias, but that's no knock on the 17-year-old. He was great in his professional debut.

Baseball America doesn't factor in service time into its prospect status, hence the inclusion of Withrow.

No. 8-10 are pretty interchangeable, although, I think Stripling deserves to be a bit higher.

The only ranking I question is Guerrero at No. 7. I get it, BA isn't particularly high on Guerrero. But one would think a potentially plus bat at a traditionally glove-first position has to be a Top 5 ranking in this system. Remember, they ranked Hyun-Jin Ryu at No. 1 heading into 2013, so they aren't averse to ranking older, international prospects high on their lists.

The ranking says a little about Guerrero and more about BA's intel, which is usually pretty good. I have a better feeling about Guerrero's future and am inclined to trust the Dodgers' scouting department (and yes, my opinion is obviously biased). After all, they've hit on their last three big international signings -- Hiroki Kuroda, Yasiel Puig and Ryu.

The Dodgers' system is pretty top-heavy, as evidenced by this list. I'm shooting for sometime in the next six weeks to unveil my Top 50 Dodger prospects. Admittedly, I'm waiting to see how the Masahiro Tanaka situation plays out. If he gets posted and the Dodgers sign him, he's the clear No. 1 prospect in the system.

We'll see what happens.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers' SP alternatives to signing Masahiro Tanaka aren't great

Everyone assumes the Dodgers are going to sign Masahiro Tanaka this winter. It's a reasonable assumption. But what happens if the Dodgers don't end up with the 25-year-old Japanese righty?

The new posting system, which was reportedly agreed upon before MLB pulled the offer last week, has been delayed again. Reports now say Tanaka might not be posted until the end of the year (six weeks). The Dodgers can't really sit back and wait for an unsure acquisition, unless they're going to post $100 million, pretty much assuring they'll have the right to negotiate with him.

Then again, the Yankees are desperate for starting pitching and want to keep payroll at less than $189 million to avoid a ridiculous luxury tax. The posting fee isn't included in the payroll.

Many (myself included) think David Price is option No. 2. But recent news is making me question that. 

Stan Kasten and Co., seem hell-bent on building through the farm system -- which is awesome. To acquire Price, the number of high-celing prospects going to Tampa Bay would be prohibitive with Kasten's philosophy.

So, who's next on the list?

We can cross off guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, Hiroki Kuroda and Ervin Santana off the list, as they received qualifying offers from their teams, which means the Dodgers would have to forfeit their first-round draft pick to sign either one. While both Kuroda and Santana are quality pitchers (Jimenez not so much), it just isn't worth it.

If Kuroda didn't have draft pick compensation tied to him, he'd be near the top of my list of free agent targets.

That leaves pitchers like Bronson Arroyo, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, Matt Garza, Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, Scott Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco and Jason Vargas available on the free agent market. Let's look at each of these guys.

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Arroyo

- Soft-tossing righty with propensity to give up home runs. Dodgers have reportedly been in contact. Don't really want him in Blue.

Colon

- On the wrong side of 30 (he'll be 41 in May) and the wrong side of 275 pounds. Had a great 2013, but can't be counted on.

Feldman

- Should be a nice cost-effective starter, but he'll be massively overpaid by a team desperate for starting pitching.

Garza

- The most talented/healthy free agent starter (and the biggest jerkstore), Garza is going to get a 4-year commitment at or more than $15 million per season. The Dodgers could afford it, but they might not want to pay it. Had interest in him in 2012.

Haren

- As a No. 5 starter, he'd be a great pickup. As a No. 4 starter, maybe not so much. Had a resurgent second half in Washington and might do well coming home.

Johnson

- Johnson has ace potential, but he's never been able to stay healthy and had a miserable year north of the border. He'll sign a pillow contract (1-year deal to re-establish value) with someone. San Diego and San Francisco are interested.

Kazmir

- Reclamation project who struck out more than a batter per inning in 2013. Cleveland would love to bring him back. More of a high-risk signing for the Dodgers.

Nolasco

- He'd be a fine No. 4 starter for the Dodgers. Problem is, there are teams lining up to give him big money on 3- and/or 4-year deals. Reports say the Padres, Phillies and Twins are in on him, as well as 'Frisco (maybe not so much now after signing Tim Hudson).

Vargas

- Pitched in Anaheim last year and was pretty decent (but not anywhere close to Zack Greinke). Angels need pitching perhaps more than any team in baseball. I'm betting he goes back there.

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As for trade targets, teams aren't exactly rushing to trade good starters. Price is out there, the Cardinals have about eleventy billion starters (but most are cost-effective and really good), and the Phillies have some high-priced hurlers they should trade, but won't (see Marlon Byrd and Carlos Ruiz signings). There's also some scuttlebutt the Mariners might trade Hisashi Iwakuma to improve offensively, but I'm not so sure the Dodgers match up that well. Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp would be logical targets for Seattle.

The Dodgers could also turn to the farm system. Zach Lee is not only the Dodger starting pitching prospect closest to the majors, he's the best. With Josh Beckett on track for opening day (we'll see about that), the Dodgers need at least one pitcher. Maybe Lee is that guy.

Stripling

Another starter close to the majors is Ross Stripling. He's similar to Lee in terms of frame, repertoire and maturity, but he might need a little more seasoning in Double-A.

Chris Reed also pitched at Double-A last season, but I'm not at all confident in him being in the rotation in 2014 (or ever, really).

Guys like 2013 draft picks Chris Anderson and Tom Windle are at least a year away from contributing in the rotation (and that's being optimistic), while Julio Urias is at least two years away.

Onelki Garcia looks like a reliever at this point and Matt Magill (or McGill, if you listen to Jim Bowden)  wasn't great in his debut. I still have faith in him, but he might be better off coming out of the bullpen in the majors. Stphen Fife and Red Patterson are extreme longshots.

No matter what the Dodgers decide to do, they'll need at least one addition to the rotation (maybe two). Chad Billingsley is due back midseason, but I'm guessing he'll get the lion's share of his work out of the bullpen when he comes back.

Photo credits

Arroyo: SD Dirk, Flickr

Stripling: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue