2012 Los Angeles Dodgers Season Review: Rotation

Aside from Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers' rotation -- despite posting decent numbers -- was generally underwhelming in 2012. September was actually the pitching staff's best month, but even if the Dodgers had made the playoffs, they didn't have the starting pitching to hang with the big boys.

Dodgers' rotation by the numbers
56-56 W-L
3.41 ERA
1.25 WHIP
8.2 H/9
0.8 HR/9
3.0 BB/9
7.5 K/9
2.51 K/BB
2 CG, 2 SHO (both by Kershaw)

Rotation

Clayton Kershaw
14-9, 2.53 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 2.89 FIP
- Kershaw wasn't as dominant as he was in 2011, but he wasn't as far off those numbers as some would lead you to believe. Kershaw still led the majors in ERA for a second consecutive season and led the majors in hits per nine innings. He also led the National League in WHIP. His slider wasn't nearly as good a pitch as it was in 2011, but his fastball improved and he made his curveball a great weapon again. In fact, his curveball was nearly twice as good as it's ever been. He was the Dodgers' most consistent performer and should take home team MVP honors (for what it's worth).
Grade: A

Chad Billingsley
10-9, 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 3.34 FIP
- Billingsley had just hit his stride before injuring his elbow in late August. It was the second time he hurt his elbow. This time, it might mean Tommy John surgery. He emerged as the Dodgers' second-best pitcher and would have been a big help in September. He had a career-low walks per nine rate and a career-best strikeout-to-walk ratio. Let's just hope his elbow recovers well enough for him to pitch in 2013. I'd be surprised if it does, though.
Grade: B

Chris Capuano
12-12, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 3.95 FIP
- Capuano was brought in to help alleviate the loss of Hiroki Kuroda, and he did an admirable job doing so. He scored career-bests in ERA, WHIP and hits per nine innings. He pitched so well that he garnered some All-Star consideration from some. I wasn't appalled by his signing, but I was still wanting Kuroda to return. He was consistent in the first half before seemingly running out of gas in the second half.
Grade: B-

Aaron Harang
10-10, 3.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 4.14 FIP
- Harang, all things being equal, was reasonably adequate for the Dodgers this season. We all remember his Dodger record nine consecutive strikeouts, but that's about all we remember. Harang's walks per nine innings and walk-to-strikeout ratio were not in line with his career numbers, accounting for a high WHIP. He's a prime candidate to be traded or sent to the bullpen come 2013.
Grade: C

Joe Blanton
2-4, 4.99 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.3 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 4.26 FIP
- Blanton came over in an August trade that sent Ryan O'Sullivan to the Phillies. I was actually a fan of this deal when it went down (though, I would have rather kept O'Sulivan), but Blanton struggled in his 10 starts as a Dodger. He's a free agent and I'd be surprised if he was re-signed.
Grade: D

Nathan Eovaldi
1-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 10.1 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 4.11 FIP
- Eovaldi began the season in Double-A -- just as he did last season -- and was recalled to fill a rotation void. He was decent in his second go-round with the Dodgers before he was traded with Scott McGough for Hanley Ramirez. Eovaldi pitched similarly in Florida, but there's still a lot of promise left in his 22-year-old arm.
Grade: C

Ted Lilly
5-1, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 3.92 FIP
- Lilly got off to a fast start before suffering what would end up being a season-ending shoulder injury in May. Before allowing eight earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start of the season, Lilly owned a 1.79 ERA and had clearly established himself as the Dodgers' third starter. He had shoulder surgery and his status for 2013 is unknown.
Grade: B-

Josh Beckett
2-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 3.61 FIP
- Beckett came over with something to prove. I'm not sure he did, but he pitched reasonably well in his one-plus month with the Dodgers. Beckett is a wild card for the Dodgers. He could be the Dodgers' No. 3 starter Opening Day.
Grade: B

Stephen Fife
0-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.1 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 4.14 FIP
- Fife, a surprise addition to the 40-man roster prior to the season, actually made some meaningful starts for the Dodgers and didn't get shelled. That qualifies as a successful season for the 25-year-old righty. Fife used a lot of smoke and mirrors to get through his starts as he didn't miss many bats.
Grade: C+

Next up: Outfielders

Photo credits
Kershaw: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue
Eovaldi: EephusBlue, Paint the Corners

A brief look at the Dodgers' farm system following trading season

The Dodgers were as active as they've been in years on the trade market this year. They acquired some big-name talent (Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez), but they also gave up quite a few young players.

Here's a scorecard of Dodger prospects and young players traded since July 25 (Ramirez trade):

Position players
Ivan De Jesus
Leon Landry
Jerry Sands (player to be named later)

Pitchers
Logan Bawcom
Rubby De La Rosa (PTBNL)
Nathan Eovaldi
Josh Lindblom
Ethan Martin
Scott McGough
Ryan O'Sullivan
Allen Webster

As you can see, the Dodgers certainly dealt from their strength. For the last few seasons, the Dodgers' biggest strength has been their young pitching. That's what the farm system was known for.

Of the three position players the Dodgers traded, two of them have every day potential. Sands, who curiously wasn't given a legitimate shot in Los Angeles, was sent to Boston in the August blockbuster. Landry, a player I'm higher on than most, just won the California League batting title (.341). He was traded with Bawcom to get Brandon League. He also led the league in triples (18) while finishing in second in total bases (262) and doubles (34).

The Dodgers traded eight young pitchers. Not many teams can do that and still have solid pitching depth. Don't get me wrong, it isn't as good as it was a couple months ago, but there are still some quality arms remaining. But the system, even more so now, lacks front-end starters.

Zach Lee and Chris Reed are the organization's top two pitching prospects by far -- and Lee is in a class my himself. Then there are starting pitching prospects like Garrett Gould, Matt Magill, Onelki Garcia and Andres Santiago. Definitely not the same potential star power as before with De La Rosa, Webster and Eovaldi paired with Lee and Reed.

The 2012 draft and International signings didn't really help strengthen the pitching side of things. Garcia was drafted in the third round and Zachary Bird, pegged as a sleeper by many, was a ninth-round pick. And we won't know much about a guy like Bryan Munoz, a 16-year-old, for a few years.

For the first time in a long time, it seems the Dodgers have more high-end (for this system, at least) hitting prospects than pitching prospects. Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig and Corey Seager all have potential to be above-average everyday players.

So, Logan White has some work to do rebuild the pitching side of the system. Relief pitching is still strong (Shawn Tolleson, Steve Ames, Steven Rodriguez, Javier Solano), but the Dodgers will need some high-end starters down on the farm going forward.

Speaking of Andres Santiago...

This is my latest at Chad Moriyama's blog about the 22-year-old pitching prospect who's making a name for himself this season.

"There are a couple things that impress me most about Santiago. First, his increased strikeout rate. While he was able to get solid rates in the past (8.0, 7.4, 8.4 K/9 the last three seasons), he’s stepped up to another level this year. His 9.8 K/9 is second only to Matt Magill for best among starting pitchers in the system."

Looking forward to see how he handles a full season in Double-A.

Photo credits 

Reed: Courtesy of Brandon Lennox, True Blue LA

Landry: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

The Dodgers should absolutely claim Cliff Lee off waivers

As soon as the non-waiver trade deadline passed on Tuesday, people immediately speculated whether Cliff Lee would be claimed off waivers.

Lee was promptly placed on waivers Thursday and the Dodgers should claim him with little hesitation.

Lee, who makes $21.5 million this season (roughly less than $10 million remaining) and $25 million annually through 2015, would make sense for the Dodgers. He also has a $27.5 million vesting option for the 2016 season ($12.5 million buyout).

All told, it'd be nearly a $100 million commitment (with the buyout). But look at it this way: It'd be like signing a major free agent with less than half the season remaining. Plus, they were set to go after Cole Hamels this offseason before his contract was extended. Lee would be a mighty fine consolation prize.

The Dodgers failed to land a starting pitcher before Tuesday and after trading Nathan Eovaldi, there is a hole in the rotation. Now, Ted Lilly is on his way back (no definite timetable), but Cliff Lee is an elite pitcher in this game. If money is truly no matter for ownership, this claim is a no-brainer.

If the Dodgers claim him, they'd be the only team that could trade for him. That means Lee wouldn't go to the Rangers or Yankees (the only two teams who could realistically claim him and his contract).

Now, claiming him comes with a few other notes:

1. The Phillies could just let him go and the Dodgers could assume all the money in the contract.
2. The Phillies and Dodgers could attempt to work a trade for Lee, but all players involved on the 40-man roster would have to clear waivers. This means the Dodgers would likely be sending players in the lower minors, which is good for them because it shouldn't take much to acquire Lee.
3. The Phillies could pull him back and explore trading him in the winter.

So, this is actually a somewhat convoluted situation.

Worse-case scenario: the Dodgers are the same team in a few days without Lee. Best-case scenario: the Dodgers have pitcher 1A to Clayton Kershaw. This would give the Dodgers a formidable rotation for the postseason.

The Dodgers took on nearly $39 million in the Hanley Ramirez deal. Ownership has shown the desire to do whatever it takes to acquire talent for a playoff run right now. I'd be somewhat surprised if the Dodgers don't claim Lee from the Phillies.

Photo credit: Matthew Straubmuller, Flickr 

Dodgers have interest in Shin-Soo Choo and Hunter Pence

I'm writing this on the road, so my apologies for the lack of visuals, depth and links.

The Dodgers are reportedly interested in Indians' outfielder Shin-Shoo Choo.

Some words that immediately come to mind: fantastic, awesome, amazing, WANT.

The 29-year-old outfielder is due a significant pay raise next season in his last year of arbitration and will be a free agent following the 2013 season.

Some wonder if the Indians will move Choo. Well, they're looking for a Major Leaguer who has less than three years of experience and is good. Well, the Dodgers don't have many of those guys -- they just traded their best one in Nathan Eovaldi.

However, Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports tweeted the Dodgers are definitely interested in Choo.

It'd be awesome to acquire him, but they probably have a better chance of acquiring Hunter Pence from the Phillies. They'll need to clear salary after signing former future Dodger Cole Hamels to a massive $144 million contract.

In either of these deals, the Dodgers would have to include Zach Lee, another top pitcher (Chris Reed, Allen Webster, etc.) and one more good youngster. I wonder if the Indians are intrigued with Jerry Sands after his two-grand slam game on Sunday?

Anyway, it should be an interesting couple days. The Dodgers will definitely add a bat and starting pitcher before tomorrow at 1 p.m. I'm eagerly awaiting the announcements.

Dodgers get the better end of the Hanley Ramirez deal

The Dodgers did something they haven't done in awhile -- acquire an impact bat. But the fact it was a young impact bat was quite surprising and pleasing.

Hanley Ramirez is the Dodgers' newest addition and should be around for quite some time.

Look, I know he's not the Ramirez of 2006-09 who hit .316/.387/.531, but he has the potential and ability to be that player.

This is a classic change-of-scenery situation and I have no reason to believe Ramirez won't recapture some of his former glory.

There's no reason not to like this deal if you're a Dodger fan. Sure, they gave up Nathan Eovaldi, but it's a small price to pay for a former superstar who isn't washed up.

Ramirez is just 28 years old and is signed through the 2014 season. Here's a breakdown of his contract from Cot's:

• 2012: $15 million (less than $6 million remaining)
• 2013: $15.5 million
• 2014: $16 million

He also gets a $50,000 bonus for making the All-Star team.

It may seem like a lot for a guy batting less than .250, but this gamble is one the Dodgers needed to take. And no matter what happens, even if Ramirez hits at the level he's hitting right now, it will still have been a successful trade.

The only way this doesn't work out in the Dodgers' favor is if Eovaldi turns into a legitimate No. 2 starter and Ramirez doesn't excel.

When talented players become available, acquiring them is usually a good idea. Ramirez is a supremely talented player and the Dodgers got him.

Until Dee Gordon returns, I'd play him at shortstop. He started his first game at third base, so it's nice to see he's willing to play there long-term. The truth is, Ramirez has never been even an adequate defender at shortstop, but he's hit well while playing shortstop.

It's all about keeping him comfortable in my eyes. He's on a team in which he doesn't have to be "the man." That's Matt Kemp's job. He can thrive as a key component to a playoff-contending team -- hopefully a championship contender.

Ramirez also hit in the No. 5 spot in his Dodger debut. If I'm Don Mattingly, I bat Ramirez leadoff. While his speed isn't completely wasted in the 5-hole, it could be better utilized in the leadoff spot. Plus, Gordon wasn't exactly lighting up the world hitting first. This would make acquiring another middle-of-the-order bat a must, which is on the Dodgers' shopping list.

The Dodgers also acquired Randy Choate, who will be the primary left-handed pitcher out of the bullpen. The 36-year-old holds left-handed hitters to a measly .150 batting average and just two extra base hits (both doubles). He's exactly what the Dodgers needed in the bullpen. This will allow Scott Elbert to pitch more meaningful innings instead of being the only lefty out of the 'pen.

The Marlins' return, while not a lot in terms quantity, is not too bad in quality considering the Dodgers picked up all the money in this deal.

Eovaldi, at worst, will be a late-inning reliever. His makeup is such that he could handle and eighth- or ninth-inning role without much concern. However, his value right now remains in the rotation. He has the ability to be a No. 2 starter. However, a No. 3 or No. 4 guy is more likely -- and there's nothing wrong with that.

Eovaldi's fastball is his best pitch. It sits in the low-to-mid-90s with wicked movement. His breaking pitches are where he needs improvement. His slider is probably his second-best pitch, but it's an average offering at best. His curveball, while good at times, can get a bit loopy and sloppy. His changeup is a work in progress and his cut fastball is a new addition.

The repertoire is there, but he needs to nail down a couple of those secondary pitches to remain in the rotation. That, and he needs to start missing more bats. With that kind of fastball, he should be able to post a better K/9 than 5.6 in the majors. That's something the Marlin coaching staff must work on.

The final piece of the deal was Scott McGough. McGough, a 2011 5th-round pick, pitched well in his debut season. He's pitched the entire season in the California League and started off well. However, his ERA and WHIP have ballooned a little, but his K/9 is still impressive for a guy in his first full professional season (9.1). He has a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a slurvey breaking ball. He needs to improve that breaking pitch to be more than a middle reliever. If he can do it, the Marlins might have a future closer on their hands.

So, the Dodgers gave up a couple talented arms for a former and potential superstar (seems weird to write that). The Dodgers were able to use their best asset -- deep pockets -- to make this deal happen. It seemed the Dodgers weren't going to be able to swing a deal or acquire a decent player without giving up Zach Lee. However, they found middle ground with the Marlins and were able to absorb all the money, allowing them to acquire Ramirez.

And by moving Eovaldi, the Dodgers are almost a lock to trade for a starting pitcher (*cough* Ryan Dempster *cough*) before Tuesday's trade deadline.

I absolutely love this deal and I still can't believe it happened. I wish Eovaldi and McGough all the luck in the world, but the Dodgers got the better end of this deal.

Photo credits

Ramirez: SD Dirk, Flickr

Eovaldi: Eephus Blue, Paint the Corners

McGough: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers land Hanley Ramirez for Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough

Well, this is certainly some fantastic news to wake up to. The Dodgers have acquired Hanley Ramirez and Randy Choate from the Marlins for Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough.

Wow. I'm still not sure how to react. I'll do a more in-depth post later, but I wanted for fire this one off before going to work.

It seems the Dodgers' checkbook finally paid off (sorry) for them as they're picking up all of Ramirez's $37.3 to $39 million remaining on his contract.

As much as I like Eovladi, the Dodgers are getting a former superstar who should be in his prime for a guy who has middle-of-the-rotation upside. However, there's always been concern about his ability to stay in the rotation long-term.

It's not yet determined where Ramirez will play or hit in the lineup, but he's volunteered to play either shortstop or third base.

Also, it seems logical to bat him fifth, but I'd stick him in the leadoff spot. He's had tons of success hitting leadoff in the past and it could rejuvenate him.

That's all I have time for. Like I said, I'll do more analysis later.

Welcome to Los Angeles, Mr. Ramirez. Here's hoping your stay is longer and better than the last Ramirez the Dodgers acquired.

Photo credit: SD Dirk, Flickr

2012 Los Angeles Dodgers' midseason analysis and grades

This has been one of the stranger Dodger seasons I have ever witnessed. They've gone from baseball's best team to possibly baseball's worst lineup. Despite that, they still hold a half-game lead over the Giants in the National League West.

The Dodgers are 47-40 and will get healthy following the All-Star Break. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier should both be back in the lineup, giving it some much needed punch. Mark Ellis is already back and the starting rotation, save Ted Lilly, has been healthy and good the entire season. The bullpen, despite some perception, has been strong once again.

Dodgers' first-half grade: B
- This would have been higher if the team had been better while Kemp was out. It's hard to lose baseball's best player and still be a good team, but the offense was historically bad for a stretch last month. Still, the pitching has kept them in most every game and the bullpen, despite injuries, has been solid again. The Dodgers once had a 7 1/2 game lead on the Giants, so it's a little disappointing to see it only at a half-game right now. But at this time last year, they were 11 games behind the Giants, so they're definitely in a better position this year. The patchwork lineup (outside of Kemp and Ethier) has been good enough thus far. It'll be interesting to see what's in store for the second half.

Here's my grade breakdown of all the players who have played on the team this season.

Catcher
A.J. Ellis
.285/.404/.425, 7 HR, 28 RBI, 43 BB, 3.0 fWAR
- Ellis has been nothing short of amazing this season. I penned a post about him in May when he was on fire. He's fallen off a bit since then, but his .404 on-base percentage leads the team (Kemp excluded). He was once thought to be a part of the worst catching unit in the majors. Now, he's a top 10 catcher in baseball. Grade: A

Infield
James Loney
.247/.309/.333, 2 HR, 24 RBI, -0.2 fWAR
- This is pretty much typical Loney at this point in his career. His glove is outstanding, but nothing else about his game is. He's struggled the entire first half after finishing 2011 on such a strong note. The Dodgers nearly acquired Carlos Lee (thank you for invoking your no-trade clause) to replace Loney, so it's clear the Dodgers are at their wit's end with Loney. I wouldn't expect him to be the Dodgers' first baseman post-July 31. Grade: F

Mark Ellis
.271/.371/.361, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 1.5 fWAR
- Ellis was among the leaders in runs scored when the Dodgers were hot in April. He was a stabilizing presence in the lineup until he suffered a leg injury in May. It was so serious that he was close to having his leg amputated. Thankfully (and obviously), that didn't happen. He's been back for a week and should help the lineup improve in the second half. Oh, and that 100-point difference in batting average and on-base percentage is a welcoming, wonderful sight. Grade: B+

Dee Gordon
.229/.280/.282, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 30 SB, -0.8 fWAR
- Gordon has been up and down this season, and when he's been up, it hasn't been that high up. He does lead the majors in stolen bases at 30, but he's not even pulling a .300 on-base percentage. Could you imagine? He was even removed from the leadoff spot (to eighth) for a time and seemed to get back on track. But that didn't last. Gordon just suffered a dislocated thumb and will be out until sometime in August or even early September. His defense has been less-than stellar, which was expected. Being the leadoff man for a playoff-contending team is a lot of pressure for a guy in his first full season, but the ability is there. However, I expected Gordon to be better than he's been so far. Grade: D+

Juan Uribe
.194/.250/.271, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 0.0 fWAR
- Laugh. Out. Loud. Grade: ... Is there anything worse than an "F"?

Outfield
Bobby Abreu
.272/.371/.377, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 0.7 fWAR
- When Abreu was signed, I didn't think much of it. He, like a lot of Dodgers this season, got off to a fast start before tailing off significantly in June. But he was a cheap pickup and has produced more than I expected. Going forward, his playing time needs to be reduced so his effectiveness doesn't suffer. Grade: B-

Matt Kemp
.355/.444/.719, 12 HR, 28 RBI, 2.3 fWAR
- Kemp was on a torrid pace before injuring his hamstring in May. He came back two weeks later and promptly injured it again. That flat-out sucked. The Dodgers have suffered mightily without him. He still leads the team in home runs despite playing just two games since May 13. He just finished a four-game rehab stint in the minors and participated in the Home Run Derby on Monday (still bested Mike Piazza's mark of zero home runs). He's ready to go. Grade: A- (because of injury)

Andre Ethier
.291/.357/.491, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 2.6 fWAR, $85 million
- Ethier got off to a hot start and was promptly rewarded with a 5-year, $85 million contract extension with the Dodgers. He was once the NL leader in RBI and leads the team. He's the team's second-best hitter and finished his first half on the disabled list for a strained oblique. Like Kemp, though, he should be good to go on Friday for the start of the second half. Grade: B

Rotation

Clayton Kershaw
6-5, 2.91 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 0.2 fWAR
- Kershaw has "struggled" a little this season. Hell, 95 percent of pitchers would love to "struggle" like he has. However, he hasn't been as sharp as he was last season. His slider isn't doing the things it did last year. It's gone from his best pitch his worst pitch. Despite that, his peripherals are still great and I'm expecting a strong second half from the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Grade: B+

Chad Billingsley
4-9, 4.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 0.3 fWAR
- I think I'm going to start calling him the enigma. Billingsley has the tools to be a No. 2 starter, but consistency is his issue. Some are calling for him to be traded, some are calling for him to be demoted to the bullpen. Whatever the reason for his struggles, Billingsley still has a world of ability and the Dodgers need him to pitch better in the second half. Grade: C+

Ted Lilly
5-1, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 0.0 fWAR
- Lilly got off to a great start before injuring his shoulder. The injury is reportedly so severe the Dodgers are looking for a starting pitcher prior to the trade deadline. Lilly wasn't striking a lot of guys out, but he was still effective. I don't know if his numbers would look this good had he not been hurt. A low K/9 and poor K/BB (the latter is an abnormality for him) is playing with fire. Still, he was effective while healthy. Grade: B

Chris Capuano
9-4, 2.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 0.1 fWAR
- Capuano has done a good job replacing Hiroki Kuroda this season and has been the Dodgers' most consistent pitcher in my eyes. He's pitching over his head a bit, but he's been effective and I'm hoping it continues. I don't expect him to finish the season with a sub-3 ERA, but, as of now, he's the Dodgers' No. 2 starter (not that it means much). Grade: A-

Aaron Harang
6-5, 3.51 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, -0.1 fWAR
- Harang hasn't been as good as Capuano, but he's been solid. That 1.42 WHIP doesn't translate to a mid-3 ERA (neither does his 4.0 BB/9 and 1.77 K/BB), so something will have to give in the second half. But for a No. 5 starter, the Dodgers can't really expect or ask much more. Grade: B-

Nathan Eovaldi
1-5, 4.21 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 4.6 K/9, 0.0 fWAR
- Eovaldi was stellar until his last two starts in June (10 1/3 IP, 17 H, 13 ER, 1 K). He stepped in admirably for the injured Lilly and should remain in the rotation until Lilly is healthy or another starter is inevitably acquired. Eovaldi has made strides with his breaking stuff (particularly his curveball) and has been getting beat on his fastball a bit this season. He'll need to develop more consistency and miss a few more bats going forward. Grade: C

Bullpen
Ronald Belisario
3-0, 1.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 0.2 fWAR
- I was not in favor of Belisario getting a spot in the bullpen despite not pitching in 2011. But I was clearly wrong on this one. Belisario had a great first half and stepped for the injured Matt Guerrier. His sub-2 ERA and sub-1 WHIP isn't exactly sustainable, but the Dodgers might as well ride him until he crashes. Grade: A-

Scott Elbert
1-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 0.1 fWAR
- Like Coffey, Elbert got off to a rocky start but has been lights-out since early May. Id like to see another lefty acquired so Elbert can be utilized better. Grade: B+

Javy Guerra
2-3, 3.12 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8 saves, 0.6 fWAR
- Guerra began as the team's closer and was great in the first couple weeks. Ineffectiveness and an injury ultimately led to him losing the closer's role.He just returned from injury and should be a cog in the bullpen for the rest of the season. Grade: B-

Kenley Jansen
4-2, 2.06 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 14.4 K/9, 15 saves, 1.1 fWAR
- Jansen's 2012 is eerily similar to his 2011 season. He started off slow and has been dominant ever since. He's given up more home runs this season (four) than he did last season (three), so that's a concern. Other than that, his H/9, BB/9 and K/BB are all lower than last season, which is great to see. He probably should have been an All-Star selection. Grade: A

Josh Lindblom
2-2, 3.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, -0.7 fWAR
- Lindblom has worked the most innings out of the Dodger bullpen in the first half (41) and is tied with Jansen for the most appearances (39). Aside from a couple hiccups last month, he's been great. Overuse is a concern, but he has the frame to handle a heavy workload. Grade: B+

Jamey Wright
3-2, 3.79 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 0.2 fWAR
- It's a wonder how Wright does it, but he's been somewhat effective as the long-man out of the Dodgers' bullpen this season. Let's face it: anything good Wright does is a positive. He was a non-roster invitee and had to earn his way onto the team. He's been better than expected, especially when expectations are extremely low. Grade: B-

Todd Coffey, Grade: C+
Matt Guerrier, Grade: C-
Shawn Tolleson, Grade: D
Mike MacDougal, Grade: F

Bench
Jerry Hairston, Grade: B
Ivan DeJesus, Grade: B-
Tony Gwynn, Grade: C
Elian Herrera, Grade: C
Matt Treanor, Grade: C-
Adam Kennedy, Grade: D+
Juan Rivera, Grade: D+
Justin Sellers, Grade: D+
Scott Van Slyke, Grade: D
Alex Castellanos, Grade: INC
Luis Cruz, Grade: INC
Jerry Sands, Grade: INC

Photo credits

Kemp: EephusBlue, Paint the Corners

Kershaw: SD Dirk, Flickr

Dodgers have interest in Cubs' RHPs Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster

I wasn't intending to write a post about the Dodgers' interest in Ryan Dempster, but it goes hand-in-hand with the Dodgers' reported interest in Matt Garza.

Nathan Eovaldi has filled in admirably in the absence of Ted Lilly. There's no timetable for his return.

Everyone behind Clayton Kershaw is no better than a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, but are guys like Garza and Dempster that much better than who the Dodgers have right now?

If the Dodgers are going to their resources to acquire talent, they should at least focus on acquiring some offense before another pitcher.

Matt Garza

Garza, 28, is one of the more underrated pitchers in the National League and is a free agent after the 2013 season. He's making $9.5 million this season and gets innings pitched bonuses for 210 ($50,000) and 220 innings ($100,000), meaning he could make as much as $9.65 million this season.

He's never thrown more than 204 2/3 innings in a season (2010) and he's on pace for just 190 this season (assuming 32 games started).

Despite a higher ERA in 2012 (4.04 so far) than 2011 (3.32), some of his peripherals are better than last year's.

His H/9 is down from 8.5 last year to 7.4 this year. His WHIP is down from 1.26 last year (1.30 for his career entering 2012) to 1.12 this season. His BB/9, K/9 and K/BB are pretty close to last year's marks.

Garza boasts a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a low-to-mid-80s slider, a curveball and a changeup. But his best pitch is the fastball. However, he isn't throwing it nearly as much in the National League as he did in the American League.

Last season, he threw the fastball just 53.4 percent of the time (93.7 MPH). This season, he's throwing it 60.1 percent of the time (93.4 MPH). His last three seasons in Tampa Bay (2008-10), he threw it 72.2, 71.1 and 71.5 percent of the time.

I'm a proponent of pitchers using their fastball liberally, especially a fastball like Garza's. Then again, he did have one of the best seasons of his career in 2011, so who knows?

Garza will cost significantly more in prospects/young players than Dempster would, but acquiring him without signing him to a long-term deal wouldn't be a great move by the Dodgers. They'd be getting him for the rest of 2012 and 2013 at the minimum. His salary for 2013 would probably be in the neighborhood of $12-13 million.

There are definitely risks in trying to acquire Garza. The Cubs are going to want a lot in return and the Dodgers are going to have to shell out some cash to keep him around. A positive: It appears the Dodgers can offer him arbitration after the 2013 season. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement prohibits offering arbitration to players who will be free agents the following winter ... like our next pitcher.

Ryan Dempster

Dempster, on the other hand, probably wouldn't cost as much in terms of prospects, but he comes with a higher monetary price tag.

Dempster is making $14 million this season and, at age 35, will be a free agent after the season. He's having a great season so far: 2.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 3.00 K/BB and will probably be headed to Kansas City for the All-Star Game.

He has reinvented himself in his 30s, going from a hard-throwing fastball/slider guy with a lot of walks to a guy with good control and knows how to pitch.

• Age 21-30: 4.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9
• Age 31-35: 3.3 BB/9, 8.2 K/9

That's an impressive and somewhat drastic change for a guy to make heading into his age-31 season (his best to date).

Dempster's fastball averages 89.4 MPH this season after sitting at 90.3 MPH last season. He's throwing his slider 9 percent more often this season than last -- not unexpected from an aging pitcher. He also has quality split-finger fastball.

He'd be a nice acquisition, if the Dodgers really feel they need another starter.

What would it take to get them?

Note: The Dodgers could potentially use a guy like Bryan LaHair, but I'm going to leave him out of these proposals.

This is what I'd give up to get either one.

To Chicago: Jerry Sands, Angel Sanchez, Shawn Tolleson, Allen Webster
To Los Angeles: Garza

It might seem like a lot, but Garza would be in Dodger Blue for more than a year. The Cubs get a guy who can step into right field (moving David DeJesus to center field), one of the Dodgers' best pitching prospects in Webster, their best relief prospect in Tolleson and a young guy with potential in Sanchez.

The Cubs absolutely stacked in the minor leagues on offense with guys like Javier Baez, Brett Jackson, the recently signed Jorge Soler and the recently drafted Albert Almora, so they're probably more in the market for pitching prospects.

To Chicago: Steve Ames, John Ely, Sanchez
To Los Angeles: Dempster, cash ($2 million)

This one might be a little more realistic. Dempster isn't going to cost a ton and would likely be a rental. The Dodgers have their sights set on Cole Hamels this winter and have guys like Chris Capuano and Harang locked up through 2013. The Cubs get a guy who could replace Dempster in their rotation immediately in Ely and a young pitching prospect in Sanchez and a reliever close to the majors in Ames.

Conclusion

At this rate, I'd prefer the Dodgers go after Dempster than Garza. This post at Obstructed View breaks down Dempster's potential trade value.

"Top 10 hitting prospects     $36.5M
Top 11-25 hitters     $25.1
Top 26-50 hitters     $23.4
Top 51-75 hitters     $14.2
Top 76-100 hitters     $12.5
Top 10 pitching prospects     $15.2
Top 11-25 pitchers     $15.9
Top 26-50 pitchers     $15.9
Top 51-75 pitchers     $12.1
Top 76-100 pitchers     $9.8
Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels)     $7.3
Grade B hitters     $5.5
Grade C pitchers 22 or younger     $2.1
Grade C pitchers 23 or older     $1.5
Grade C hitters 22 or younger     $0.7
Grade C hitters 23 or older     $0.5

The bolded red line is the maximum that we should expect the Cubs to get in return if they traded Dempster today. That's using the high WAR estimate so realistically it's probably closer to the Grade B pitcher or hitter. if they wait until the deadline the Cubs may be looking at only a grade C pitcher or a couple grade C hitters."

This is assume the Cubs eat a majority of the contract. The only guys the Dodgers have who fall into that category are Zach Lee, Webster and Eovaldi. I wouldn't move any of them to acquire Dempster. However, the next line is intriguing because the Dodgers have a ton of those guys (including Lee, Webster and Eovaldi).

Since Garza is locked up through 2013, giving up some talent to get him might not be that big a deal. But if the Dodgers give up any of their top youngsters (Lee, Eovaldi, Chris Reed, Joc Pederson, Rubby De La Rosa) for Garza, I'm not sure I'd be on board. Garza's career numbers aren't that much better than Chad Billingsley's, whom he would be expected to outpitch for the No. 2 spot in the rotation.

The Dodgers could get a starter on the cheap (Dempster) and focus on acquiring a bat with their better trade chips.

Photo credit: mootown, Flickr

Zach Lee has been great this season for the Quakes in the California League

The word "great" is thrown around a lot in sports and life in general. Far too much, actually. I try to be conservative when using the word.

Well, Zach Lee has been great this season.

I had some concern with Lee pitching in the California League this season -- something that can be said for pretty much any good prospect in the hitter's haven.

Allen Webster, oddly enough, dominated the league last season (2.33 ERA, 7.7 H/9, 10.3 K/9) in 54 innings before struggling in the Southern League (but he has pitched better of late).

Lee, however, has handled himself quite well in the league, even after battling a groin injury last month.

The "bad"

His 4.30 ERA isn't going to get him acclaim, but it's better than the league-average of 4.46. His 1.2 HR/9 is high, but the league-average is 0.9 and he hasn't given up a home run in his last five starts. Last season, he gave up nine in 109 innings (0.7). His 9.46 H/9 is just a touch more than the league average of 9.41.

Left-handers are getting to him a little more than righties (.288/.333/.411), which isn't uncommon. But he actually has a higher slugging percentage allowed to righties (.449).

The good -- the really good

His FIP is 3.52. The league-average is 3.89, so that's great to see. His SIERA is 3.08, which is eight-tenths better than league-average (3.88).

Lee is dominating right-handers (save the higher-than-normal slugging percentage): 1.11 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9, 10.54 K/9, 10.25 K/BB, 3.14 FIP, 2.22 SIERA. Wow.

What might be most impressive are the next few categories. Lee's control and command have been excellent this season. He has only walked nine batters in 52 1/3 innings, good for a 1.5 BB/9 (that's Roy Halladay territory).

His 8.9 K/9 is up from last year's 7.5. I'm not exactly sure what to attribute it to because he's facing advanced hitters in a hitter's league. I've heard he's been working in the high-80s to low-90s with his fastball, so he's not going to just blow pitches by hitters on a regular basis. His secondary offerings -- cutter, curveball, changeup -- are solid.

The one statistic that makes me really happy is his 5.78 K/BB. The league-average is 2.54 and Lee's rate last season was 2.84. That's a massive improvement.

The guy obviously knows how to pitch. He's not just a thrower (not that he's ever been just a thrower). This should give Dodger fans a lot of hope.

He's been awesome since returning from injury:

• 3 GS, 12 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

With talk of the Dodgers wanting to acquire a bat and arm before July 31, they had better do one of two things with Lee:

1. Don't trade him (preferred)
2. Trade him for an impact/star bat, not pitcher

If the Dodgers trade Lee without getting a star-quality player in return, it will be a colossal mistake.

The guy has everything needed to be a great pitcher in baseball. He's just 20 years old and posting these impressive numbers against competition that is roughly two-plus years older than him -- that cannot be overlooked.

Chris Reed, Lee's former (and probably future) teammate has already been promoted to Double-A. The 2011 first-round pick is 22 years old. Lee could easily be joining him sometime in the next month. The Dodgers have been known to be aggressive with their pitchers (Chad Billingsley, Nathan Eovaldi, Edwin Jackson, Kershaw, Webster), so seeing Lee in Chattanooga at age 20 wouldn't be a surprise to me.

The Dodgers drafted Corey Seager last week. Some probably wondered if Seager would slot in as the Dodgers' top prospect (assuming he signs). For me, absolutely not. But that's not a knock against Seager. That's how much I like what Lee has done and how much hope there is for him in the future. He's not going to be another Clayton Kershaw (not many of those out there), but I could easily see him being the Dodgers' No. 2 or No. 3 starter in the next five years.

Thanks to Minor League Central for the in-depth statistics

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Nathan Eovaldi makes the Dodgers look smart for not signing Roy Oswalt

Look, there's no debating the illustrious career of Roy Oswalt, but perhaps it was a good thing he didn't sign with the Dodgers.

Oswalt signed with the Rangers on Tuesday -- 1 year, $5 million plus $1 million in incentives. That's a pretty decent price and I wouldn't have been opposed to the Dodgers picking him up on a similar deal. But when Nathan Eovaldi has a season debut like he had against Milwaukee, it makes losing out on Oswalt -- who really didn't want to play in Los Angeles -- much more bearable.

Eovaldi threw seven innings of two-run ball last night. The only mistake he made was to Ryan Braun, the reigning National League MVP. The fact the Dodgers couldn't give him any run support is not his fault.

I was also impressed he was able to go seven innings on 90 pitches in his first big league start of the season. His longest outing in the minors was seven innings and was the longest of his Major League career. Not only that, he did it while averaging 95 MPH on both of his fastballs. That's impressive.

He was, however, surprisingly even on groundouts and fly outs (9-9) after posting a 1.75 rate with Chattanooga this season. But he was able to keep the Milwaukee bats in check.

Granted, the Brewers' lineup isn't as good as in years past, thanks to the loss of Prince Fielder and the struggles of Rickie Weeks, but Eovaldi had little trouble dispatching with some solid hitters.

If Eovaldi can step in for Ted Lilly admirably, the Dodgers can focus their resources on improving the offense -- something that is more pressing than another starting pitcher.

Of course, teams like the Mets and White Sox need to stop winning so guys like David Wright and Paul Konerko become available.

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Here's my latest "Down on the Farm" report at ChadMoriyama.com. Here's an excerpt:

"Can there really be a Pitcher Of The Week when the staff allowed 57 runs in seven games? Sure. This week, it’s Ely. Elymania posted a great line this week: 14 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 13 K. This is his second POTW honor, and it’s really surprising to see such a good performance from him in a week the team allowed so many runs. In fact, if you take away Ely’s three runs allowed, the rest of the Isotopes staff allowed 54 runs. That’s … ugly.

After a rough start to the season, Ely has put up some great numbers in an extreme hitter’s league: 3.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 4.33 BB/K and a 1.85 groundout to flyout rate. He wouldn’t be nearly this good in the majors, but it’s nice to see him pitching well in case the Dodgers need an emergency starter later this season."

John Ely is having a fantastic season for the Isotopes and is renewing faith in myself (for whatever that's worth) that he can be a decent emergency starting pitcher option, if needed.

Dodgers make offer to Roy Oswalt, Lilly's shoulder an obvious concern

This is not the first time I've written about Roy Oswalt and the Dodgers. In 2010, the Dodgers were looking to upgrade the rotation and Oswalt's name frequently came up. Now, nearly two years later, Oswalt and the Dodgers are connected again.

Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports tweeted this earlier today:

"The Dodgers have made an offer to Roy Oswalt. Rangers, Oswalt's likely preference, still in mix, among other clubs."

No word on what the offer might be, but Oswalt was reportedly asking for a prorated salary of $7.5 million for the rest of the season. The Dodgers also reportedly said Oswalt's demands were excessive.

Roy Oswalt, future Dodger?

So, why the need for another starting pitcher? When the news broke yesterday of the Dodgers' interest in Oswalt, it made me scratch my head.

The only way an Oswalt deal makes sense is if Ted Lilly's should injury is deemed to be serious. He went on the disabled list today and Michael Antonini was recalled. That doesn't preclude Nathan Eovaldi from taking Lilly's spot in the rotation on Tuesday, as another two roster moves will need to be made -- a spot cleared for Eovaldi and a spot cleared for Matt Kemp.

Well, the first move has been made: Antonini was literally just optioned back to Albuquerque by the Dodgers. The next presumable move, not announced until tomorrow, is Eovaldi officially being promoted.

Next, one of the two right-handed hitting corner OF/1B Scott Van Slyke or Jerry Sands will be demoted. At this point, I have no idea which one. It doesn't matter much because whoever doesn't go back to Triple-A on Tuesday will later in the week when Juan Rivera is activated. I'll just guess Sands is the odd man out tomorrow.

But back to Oswalt. He's on the Roger Clemens plan right now: Sit out the first couple months, come back for the remainder of the season and potentially the playoffs while making a pretty penny.

Oswalt is said to prefer a team closer to Mississippi, which the Dodgers certainly are not. The Rangers seem to be the Dodgers' main competition for Oswalt.

If the Dodgers can get Oswalt for a decent price (not because the Dodger ownership can't afford it, mind you), then go for it. Oswalt is better than Aaron Harang and has the ability to be better than Lilly, despite Lilly's fast start (including his most recent appearance).

The Red Sox had checked in on Oswalt earlier in the month and the Phillies, Oswalt's most recent team, will always be in the mix.

The Dodgers obviously feel concerned enough about Lilly's health to make this move, so I'd expect some bad news on that front tomorrow. It's too bad as Lilly had been lights-out this season, despite some strange peripherals.

If the Dodgers can get Oswalt to replace Lilly, then it could be a wash. We'll see what happens.

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My latest piece at ChadMoriyama.com is on Matt Magill and his great performance with the Lookouts thus far. Here's an excerpt:

"By comparison, he outperformed Dodgers top prospect Zach Lee at the same level. Magill bested Lee in ERA, WHIP, H/9, and K/9. Granted, Lee was 19-years-old, but it’s only a one year difference.

Yet, Magill isn’t talked about among the Dodgers best prospects, and I’m just as guilty as the rest. I ranked him No. 11 heading into the 2011 season, but just No. 46 heading into this season. Chad named Magill his 25th-best prospect in the system after a rocky 2011 season with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes in the notorious California League.

While there, Magill’s hits per nine rate skyrocketed to 10.1, where his previous career high was 9.1 in his debut season in the Gulf Coast League (as an 18-year-old). This season, it’s at 6.4. His home runs per nine rate is at an all-time low — 0.2 — as he’s allowed just one home run in 48 innings so far in 2012."

Photo credit: Matthew Straubmuller, Flickr

Dodgers' news: Hairston for president, Eovaldi to be recalled, rehab update

Jerry Hairston went 5-for-5 today (his first career 5-hit game) and is more than proving his worth to a team like the Dodgers.

Hairston, a .258/.326/.371 hitter coming into the season, is tearing the proverbial cover off the ball, posting a .381/.458/.524 with more extra base hits (six) than strikeouts (five). To put it lightly, the guy has been a Godsend.

Hairston 2012

He spent a couple weeks on the disabled list, forcing the Dodgers to play Adam Kennedy -- a lot -- at third base. Hairston's presence and his ability to keep Kennedy on the bench should be enough to earn him praise from every Dodger fan. But the fact Hairston is playing as well as he is, well, that's just gravy.

I, surprisingly, was somewhat in favor of this deal.

"The former Brewer, National, Padre, Yankee, Red, Ranger, Cub and Oriole hit .270/.344/.383 last season. He'll be a fine utility player, but did the Dodgers really need him?

Probably not. But it was probably one of the best signings of the off-season, which is saying something for a team in desperate need of offense."

Not only has he mashed at the plate, he's played superb defense -- at both second- and third base. At 35 (36 on Tuesday), the guy might be playing the best ball of his career.

Here's hoping he can keep it up. The Dodgers risk playing him to much and diminishing his value, but he's better than the alternatives (Kennedy, Juan Uribe).

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This just in from Steve Dilbeck of the L.A. Times:

"Nathan Eovaldi appears headed back to the Dodgers to make at least one start for left-hander Ted Lilly."

Eovaldi made a surprise relief appearance last night (was slated to start) and struck out all three batters in his one inning of work.

We've seen Eovaldi mishandled like this as recently as last month, and I was not happy about it.

"Still, the Dodgers need to be careful in situations like this. While Eovaldi could ultimately end up a reliever, his value remains -- for the moment -- in the starting rotation. It's best not to mess with his flow or routine. If he were some journeyman pitcher, this wouldn't be a big deal. But he's the Dodgers second- or third-best prospect and limiting his innings because someone on the big league roster might be hurt could wind up hurting Eovaldi in the long run."

Eovaldi promptly struggled in his first two starts after that episode:

• May 2: 4 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• May 8: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Luckily, the great prospect that Eovaldi is, he figured it out in his previous two starts, allowing just one run in 12 innings of work.

At least it looks like Eovaldi will actually make an appearance this time around, as he was on the 25-man roster for a few days before being sent back to Chattanooga without taking the hill.

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Matt Kemp and Juan Rivera have both homered in their first rehab game with the Albquerque Isotopes. They'll both play one more game there before Kemp is activated Tuesday and Rivera is activated later in the week.

Photo credit: SD Dirk, Flickr

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode No. 4, plus a couple of news items

Sorry for the delay, but Jared Massey and I finally got the latest podcast up.

In this edition, Jared and I talk about the Dodgers' week that was, a somewhat resurgent James Loney, some strong minor-league performances and our trip to see the Quakes in person in Rancho Cucamonga.

Podomatic link
iTunes link

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The Dodgers optioned Nathan Eovladi back to Double-A and activated Todd Coffey from the 15-day disabled list.

I wrote last week the Dodgers need to be careful with Eovaldi and not to screw with his development. This whole "pitching-one-inning-per-start" thing and then calling him up to not appear in a game is precisely what I was talking about.

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The Dodgers' sale is expected to be official today. Bill Shaikin has you covered, as he has for the last two years.