Dodgers' Spring Training position battle: Backup infielders

With the signing of Justin Turner, the Dodgers officially have viable options for their utility infield spots. The Dodgers may not be done adding infielders. Emilio Bonifacio is out there at 2B/3B/SS/LF/CF/RF (but for $3.5M plus something in trade), as is Brett Wallace at 1B and emergency 3B (emphasis on "emergency").

Bonifacio is super fast and can hold his own at all those positions (well, maybe not SS). Wallace has a little power. Also, there's rumors of an international man of mystery.

The signed options, as of now, are a mix of guys who are bad at offense and defense vs. guys who are terrible at offense and good at defense. How can we choose? Well, the WAR framework helps. Its components quantify the runs above/below average a player creates on offense and on defense, and lets you add it all up.

Scott Van Slyke can handle first base, as can Juan Uribe. So there's not a big need there. But second base, third base and shortstop depth are all big concerns. Hanley Ramirez can play third base, but probably won't be asked to. Alex Guerrero can play SS (and maybe 3B?) but probably won't be asked to. Although, Van Slyke is probably up and down to Albuquerque all year, unless an outfielder is traded.

The candidates, in brief

Dee Gordon - Extreme speed, not much bat, although showed an increased patience last year and seems to have bulked up (from stick figure to slightly thicker stick figure) over the winter. Borderline unplayable at SS, he's been learning 2B & CF. Left-handed batter. He has never played 3B.
Chone Figgins - Gordon with a little less (but still great) speed, a little more bat, good defense at 3B. Experience at all 3 OF spots, but horrible numbers out there despite the speed. At 36, and having fallen over a cliff several years ago, comes with big question mark stamped on his back. Switch-hitter.
Justin Turner - The best hitter of the bunch. Primarily a 2B who can cover 3B and SS (not well). Could play 1B and OF if necessary. Despite checking all the boxes for "grit" (especially the "ginger" box), he does not come with a reputation for grit. The Mets let him go because they didn't like his hustle. Unlike the Diamondbacks and Rockies (and apparently Mets), the Dodgers are actually fairly progressive in the grit department, repeatedly able to look past small things to see the total value.
Brendan Harris - Bad hitter. Also a bad fielder, although has done alright at second base. Can field 3B, SS and 1B poorly.
Miguel Rojas - Bat is really, really, really not there. He did horrible at Double-A and could likely embarrass himself in the big leagues, possibly to a historic degree. Scouting report on the glove is great though. Plus-SS who has some experience at 2B and 3B.
Justin Sellers - Bat is not there, although has the glove to contribute at SS, 3B and 2B.

I'm going to give you my projections of how each player will fare offensively next year, and convert that to a number of runs above (actually below) the average major league hitter. The baserunning runs and the overall offensive runs are scaled to 600 plate appearances. However, none of these guys will likely not reach that number in a single season for the rest of their careers.

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	Base Running	OPS+	Off. Runs above Avg
Dee Gordon	0.248	0.332	0.308	8	78	-8
Chone Figgins	0.254	0.329	0.324	5	81	-9
Justin Turner	0.264	0.323	0.374	-1	92	-7
Brendan Harris	0.239	0.285	0.339	-2	71	-21
Miguel Rojas	0.220	0.260	0.270	1	47	-35
Justin Sellers	0.228	0.295	0.308	-3	67	-25

Well, what about defense? Can Rojas or Sellers make up 15 -25 runs with their glove over Gordon/Figgins/Turner (scaled to full time)? Harris is pretty much out, as his bad fielding outside of 2B can't make up for bad hitting and bad baserunning. I don't mean to sound so harsh, but the time when he was an adequate major league player was seven years ago

Twenty runs is a lot of runs to save. The general range of great to terrible fielding is from about +15 to -15 runs over the course of the season. These guys all play the same positions, but positional adjustment would have to be figured in too since Gordon and Figgins hardly play SS. It's hard for me to translate Rojas' minor league fielding numbers to major league runs saved, but he's clearly above average at all three spots. After his back injury, Sellers is probably not the fielder he once was -- although he's still quite good.

Looking at major league and minor league stats, I'll take a shot at predicting everyone's defensive value at 2B/3B/SS in terms of runs saved over a full year. Gordon has the advantage of supposedly playing CF too (although he has never to my knowledge attempted 3B). Some of these guys have played 1B or OF in a pinch, but you wouldn't want any of them there for more than a few innings per year.

Player	2B	3B	SS
Dee Gordon	-10		-15
Chone Figgins	-10	5	-15
Justin Turner	-10	-5	-5
Brendan Harris	0	-10	-10
Miguel Rojas	15	10	10
Justin Sellers	5	10	10
Position Value	2.5	2.5	7.5

How about need? It'll be interesting to see if Gordon can handle CF, because the Dodgers only have Andre Ethier as an OK option there.

If the Dodgers go with a 5-man rotation and 7-man pen, that leaves the fourth OF, Tim Federowicz, and three other bench spots. Van Slyke will have one sometimes, leaving two or three spots. You really need a backup SS, which to me comes down to Turner or Sellers. The 18-run advantage of Turner on offense is pretty much countered by Sellers' edge in the field. It's hard to see Rojas being so good on defense that he makes up another 10 runs on top of Sellers. Based on Gordon's record to date, -15 is actually a generous grade. And Figgins hasn't been trusted to play there in years.

If it's me, I'd take Turner & Gordon. Figgins could make it if he really shows something in Spring Training, or Van Slyke is spending some time in Albuquerque.

Graphic credit: Cody Stumpo, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue 

Dodgers could benefit from Chone Figgins' intent to give more effort

Chone Figgins apparently impressed the Dodgers enough in his workout/speech that they invited him to camp, and given the competition (Dee Gordon, Justin Sellers, Brendan Harris, Michael Young?), he has a good chance of making the team.

We all know Figgins was terrible with Seattle, but why exactly? And is there hope for a turnaround?

Figgins was a good, even borderline great, player in his 20s. You could count on him for about a .365 OBP, 45 stolen bases, good defense at third base and the ability to fill in around the diamond. That skillset was worth more than 20 WAR over his six years as a starter with the Angels (ages 25-31).

After surging to 7 WAR, and getting real MVP support in his walk year (2009), he signed a big contract with the Mariners ... and produced a -1 WAR over three miserable years there. Looking back at stories written back then, and the peripherals under his stats, it looks to me like:

• They switched him to a full-time second base, moving him out of his comfort zone, changing his defense from a plus to a minus. Amazingly, this was to accommodate switching Jose Lopez from 2B to 3B, although he was better at 2B.
• He got off to a bit of a slow start (.210 batting average his first two months, mostly bad luck)
• His "power" played poorly in Safeco (0 triples and three home runs in 800 PA there lifetime)
• The team was TERRIBLE (even bad as he was, the team still needed him to carry them)
• The fans got on him
• He started pressing, swinging at more bad pitches and making weak contact
• He started doing even worse
• Did I mention the team was terrible (101 then 95 then 87 losses)
• He got frustrated
• There was a visible lack of effort on the field
• He got benched
• He got in an actual fight was his manager

All this happened by July of his first year in Seattle. He's a professional; that's not supposed to happen, and I'm not trying to excuse him. He never got it going in Seattle, and his performance actually got worse in the second- and third year, before he was finally cut.

In 2011, he tore a hip labrum, played through it, and we saw what Figgins can offer a baseball team when you take his speed away (nothing).

In his last year (2012) they tried him in the outfield (despite being fast, he has unfathomably horrible range in the OF), his strikeout percentage had spiked to 25 percent, compared to his normal 15 percent. Pitchers saw he was out of sorts and not a threat. They were throwing him way more fastballs, way more strikes, and he was doing nothing.

Final line as a Mariner: .227/.302/.283

Without having been at his workout, we do get one tangible piece of information -- he can run a 6.5 60-yard dash. That's still very fast. If he were a prospect, that'd get him a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale. He probably used to be even faster, but that is still plus-plus speed. Of course, he is 36 now.

Fast switch-hitting, good-glove, slap hitters with a good eye don't have a lot of ways to get better as they age. He needs to maintain a complicated set of skills to be valuable and it's pretty reasonable to say age just got the best of him. Maybe that really is the case. But optimistically, I'll say this is a case where a fresh start in a familiar environment could be just what he needs, now that he has been humbled as much as a ballplayer can (cut by the Marlins!) and had a year to think about it.

The key things Figgins has to do to be successful at the plate are to maintain discipline and drive the ball (OK, that's kind of what everyone has to do). We already looked at his struggles in making solid contact, but what happens when he did hit a flyball? He has one of the shortest average flyball distances in the league -- around 250 feet -- but we do see a distinct dip in 2010 before getting more or less back to his normal.

(graph from baseballheatmaps.com)

I'll go out on a limb and say he will be able to drive the ball enough, based on reports of his workout. So, let's just look at his stats and try to forecast what he might be able to offer in 2014.

Let's say his K-rate regresses back to 18 percent and he maintains his walk rate of 10 percent. The other 72 percent of the time, he'll hit a fair ball. Thanks to his speed and swing plane, he used to be a .340 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) kind of player with the Angels. The league hits about .300 on balls in play. His last two years with the Mariners he somehow managed to pull off a .220.

(graph from Fangraphs.com)

He's still fast, so if his attitude is not getting in his way any more, I expect him to get back to BABIP better than .300. I see him providing a .255/.330/.325 triple slash in 2014. From a backup 3B/2B with speed and a good glove, that is worth a spot on this team.

Unless coaches spend significant time with him in the outfield, he should almost never play there, given the fact the Dodgers have five or six guys more likely to catch flyballs. It's arguable if he's more valuable than Gordon. We'll have to see what kind of defense Gordon can offer at 2B and CF.

Gordon is probably faster, but with less pop than Figgins -- not too many people could say both of those things. Sellers offers a better all-around glove, but a real gift for making outs at the plate. Harris hasn't been a competent hitter since President George H. W. Bush was in office, and for the sake of my blood pressure, I'm telling myself Young will retire.

So, we probably will see some Figgins this year. Everyone loves a good back-from-the-dead story. If Juan Uribe could do it last year, why not Figgins this year? He'll be getting a small paycheck, and his disappointments all happened somewhere else, so there's no resentment to battle and we can just hope to enjoy us some Figgy.

Guerra, Rosin, Buss on short list to be axed if Dodgers need 40-man spot

After adding three prospects in November, signing Dan Haren, Chris Perez and Jamey Wright and re-signing the likes of J.P. Howell, Juan Uribe and Brian Wilson, the Dodgers' 40-man roster is full-up.

Yet, there's still work to be done to the Major League roster.  The Dodgers' bench isn't fully settled yet and there's the looming potential signing of Masahiro Tanaka. That means there are going to be some players on the proverbial chopping block.

After the Dodgers place Chad Billingsley and Scott Elbert on the 60-day disabled list, there will be two vacant spots. But if the Dodgers need to add more players (and they might), there would need to be additional moves. Just because it's the new year doesn't mean teams stop making moves. The 2014 Dodgers aren't yet a finished product, and probably won't be until March.

The Dodgers' bench is the weakest part of the club right now. Andre Ethier is the most established guy, but he might be better than Carl Crawford. Either of them could also be moved before opening day, or one of them could replace an injured, say, Matt Kemp, on opening day. Scott Van Slyke is about the only other legitimate threat off the bench. Tim Federowicz's spot is secure, as it would seem is Dee Gordon's. That's four spots, with another spot needed for (preferably) a shortstop. That could be Brendan Harris, it could be a player yet to be signed. That remains to be seen.

Here are the candidates who could be designated for assignment, traded or released to make room for others:

Mike Baxter

Chili Buss

Drew Butera

Javy Guerra

Seth Rosin

Justin Sellers

The Dodgers could cut any of those guys today and not think twice about it. But there is potential for some of those guys to be contributors at the Major League level.

Buss

Baxter and Buss are essentially the same player. Both have the ability to play center field and provide a little speed. It seems redundant, especially with a guy like Joc Pederson nearing his Major League debut. Either of them could go.

DFA chances: 25 percent

Butera can't hit a lick, but he's solid defensively. The fact he plays catcher helps his cause. The Dodgers could designate him for assignment, and I'd be surprised if anyone took a flyer on the 30-year-old.

DFA chances: 10 percent

Guerra, once the Dodgers' closer, is an afterthought after the emergence of Kenley Jansen and the signing of about 47 relief pitchers this offseason. If a guy like Harris needs a roster spot, I'm betting Guerra is the guy most likely cut. Plus, he's out of options, so if he doesn't make the 25-man roster, he'd go through waivers, where he'd surely be claimed.

DFA chances: 90 percent

Rosin would first have to be placed on waivers, giving other teams the chance to take a Rule 5-type flyer on him. If he were to clear waivers, he'd then have to be offered back to the Phillies for $25,000. With a live-enough arm, I'm betting the Phillies would take a worthwhile gamble on him. If, for some reason, they don't, he'd be nice to stash in Triple-A as a reliever.

Waive chances: 70 percent

As for Sellers, I'm thinking the only reason he's on the 40-man is his ability to play a competent shortstop (better than anyone in the organization, probably). He can't hit and was arrested last offseason, but his defense is solid. The Dodgers could just go with Sellers over Harris, but Harris offers that "veteran goodness."

DFA chances: 20 percent

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None of these guys are long-term Dodgers (would give Rosin the best chance of that). But each could help a team (maybe not the Dodgers) in some capacity.

The interesting part isn't who the Dodgers remove from the 40-man, it's who they're replacing said player with. I'm hoping Tanaka, but I'm not as sure of that as I was a month or so ago.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue