Waking up to the Dodgers in first place

There's a reason major league baseball seasons are 162 games and not 62 games. Sixty two games are not enough for skill to dominate luck in the results. Just as a poker hand is largely luck, so is a baseball game. But if you play enough of either, it'll be clear who's got more skill.

I took a look at the skill of each player on each roster and concluded the Dodgers ought to run away with the division. The Giants started off winning way more games at a way faster rate than I thought they would, the Dodgers way slower. But lately, talent has been shining through.

The Dodgers have more top end talent and more depth. Depth is important for two reasons. First, you never know who's going to overperform or underperform expectations, but if you have several guys that can carry a team, one or another probably will (Adrian Gonzalez slumps but Yasiel Puig is hot). Second, injuries happen. How the roster can reconfigure around an injury is critical (Carl Crawford is out but they still have four solid outfielders).

Do I still feel like the Dodgers will coast into the playoffs? Well, I thought the Dodgers had the talent to be a 98-win team, and the Giants an 83-win team. According to the individual achievements of the players so far, the Dodgers are on pace to be a 92-win team and the Giants a 81-win team. BUT, because of luck, timing and other things that are not likely to continue, the Dodgers and Giants have won about the same number of games, both on a 90-win pace. I was probably a bit ambitious with my Dodgers predictions, but right on with my Giants ones. The Giants are not very good. To be a good baseball team, you need many good and very good baseball players, and the Giants just don't have that. Given what's already in the books for this season so far, mix that with the talent-levels going forward (of course we have yet to see what the trade deadline brings) and we see the Dodgers finishing with maybe 92 wins, and the Giants 85.

Here's a helfpul talent visualization. The horizontal axis is each player's projected (by me) WAR. The vertical axis is the average of the FanGraphs and baseball-reference WAR achieved to date, scaled to a full season. Click to see it at a larger scale. The blue names are Dodgers hitters, the red names Dodger pitchers. The orange names are Giants hitters, the black names Giants pitchers. You can see who has over and underachieved (underachievement comes in some cases from time missed due to injury, and you wouldn't expect the same people to be injured in the second half of course).  By the way, "Staff" is the WAR due to pitcher hitting (it counts, and both teams are relatively good at it).

What you see in this graph is a lot of blue and red on the upper right. It looks like the teams have a comparable number of mid-range players but remember those are the Giants best players but the Dodgers second-tier players. At the worst end, the Dodgers have guys they can cut like Paul Maholm & Chris Perez. They can at least get replacement-level guys in there to replace them! While the Giants have Matt Cain & Sergio Romo that are not going anywhere. Matt Kemp is also a sore spot for the Dodgers because his defense has been unfathomably bad, but it's reasonable to think he'll improve all the way up to just 'bad' so his valuable offense can continue to play.

So bottom line, I'm feeling pretty good about the projections and about the Dodgers. Most of the misses in individual projection are due to playing time, with a few surprises nobody could see coming. And in the aggregate, the projections are pretty on. The Dodgers meanwhile continue to look substantially stronger than the Giants and that ought to play out over the next 75 games.

Photo credit: File photo

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 85 - Kershaw, Puig, Hanley, prospects

On these episodes of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (Dodgers Nation) and I talk about Clayton Kershaw's no-hitter and the suddenly relevant (again) Dodgers.

Kershaw threw the first no-hitter of his career, and Jared tried his best to keep it in his pants. Spoiler alert: he didn't.

Yasiel Puig and Hanley Ramirez are battling injuries, and one or both of them might need to be placed on the disabled list.

Corey Seager and Julio Urias were named to the Futures Game, while Joc Pederson is hurt.

Grant Holmes signed his deal, and we talk about other prospect news.

Per usual, we close with the Q&A. Some good ones this week, including one where I'm called out for being, for lack of a better term, "lazy."

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Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (dugoutbluepodcast@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@JaredJMassey or @DustinNosler). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Shuffling deck chairs in the Dodgers' outfield, featuring Matt Kemp

Earlier this year, I questioned if the Dodgers defensive weakness up the middle would work out. I looked at it in terms of offsetting factors that could make it work -- having good corner defense and getting good offense from the defensively questionable middle. Plus, while I accepted the gloves up the middle would be bad, I thought they'd be bad within the range of Major League players.

Best case, Matt Kemp would have speedsters Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig covering so much ground in the corners, he could cover a minimal center field and the team would be in good shape. And since his bat is much better than the average center fielder, the team, all in all, would have a great outfield situation. Similarly, Juan Uribe could cover some ground and let Hanley Ramirez cheat to the middle a little. And counting the offense and defense, the Dodgers' infield would also be in great shape.

Just on team defense, while the Dodgers have indeed committed a lot of errors, eight of those have come from pitchers (all last year Dodgers' pitchers committed 10). That rate should slow down. But a better metric to look at for team defense is defensive efficiency -- what percentage of balls in play turn into outs. The Dodgers are about middle of the pack, maybe a little lower (but definitely not in the basement) on either a straight or park-adjusted basis. So, it's not a disaster situation overall, but there is room for improvement.

Kemp and Ramirez's defense has been much worse than feared. Their offense has been good, not great, so we are not willing to overlook as much. At the same time, the Dodgers corner defenders are not necessarily lighting up like they're supposed to either. Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez are a couple notches below where they used to be. Puig and Uribe are doing their part, and Andre Ethier has been fine. Second base of course has turned out to be mostly Dee Gordon, who is more or less getting the job done out there.

So the question comes down to Kemp and Ramirez. Neither one has probably been playing at full strength. Both have been terrible in the field. Their UZR/150 ratings (a measure of defensive play converted to runs saved above/below average for that position in the major leagues, scaled to a full year) are in the -25 to -30 range.  Negative 10 is about as bad as you can hope to be and hold a job. Out of 161 Major League regulars (non-catchers), all rankings normalizes for positions played, Hanley & Matt are very near the bottom in both major aspects of defense. You can't be bad at both and stay where you are. Gordon's error rate is just as bad, but he does compensate with above-average range.

	Range Rank	Error Rank	UZR/150 rank
Ramirez	154	153	154
Kemp	159	148	156

The season's about a third over, and the Dodgers are not running away with the division as expected. In fact, they're 6 1/2 games behind the Giants. The hitting is good, the starting pitching is good (especially now with the rotation healthy), the bullpen is a problem and poor defense is exacerbating the bullpen problem.

So, what to do? Let's leave the shortstop question aside for a later day. Don Mattingly has done one bold thing, which is stop sending Kemp into center field every day. The intention is he'll play mostly left field now and a little bit of center. Ethier will play center field most days, while Puig is in right field every day.

What can we expect from Matt Kemp, left fielder? Well, left field is easier for sure. I thought I'd look at Major League players who played a good amount of both left- and center field last year, and see how their performance was at each spot. There are only three such players -- Alejandro De Aza, Gregor Blanco and Mike Trout.

We see an average increase in UZR/150 of about 5 when we look at their left field ratings vs. their center field ratings. The error rate is going to be about the same, but limited range is less of a problem in left. Now, if Kemp only improves from a -30 CF to a -25 LF, I'll be surprised. Then again, his ankle is clearly not 100 percent, so it might be awhile before we see him running 'em down again. And playing left field, if you're used to center- or right field, is not entirely easy. Just look at Ethier. While solid in right- and center field, he's actually struggled a bit in limited time in left.

Kemp's attitude is not great right now. He apparently "took a few days" to get used to the idea of not being the center fielder. And then he shagged balls in left field for half an hour, once. With Crawford injured, the outfield rotation is pretty set now: from right-to-left field, it'll be Puig/Ethier /Kemp vs. righties and Puig/Kemp/Van Slyke vs. lefties (even if Ethier is starting on Friday against the Pirates).  Puig, an above-average right fielder, could be turned into a good center fielder, but in that would take time.

It's not clear that even once that learning takes place, Puig in center field and Ethier in right field is a better situation than Puig in right and Ethier in center. So leave that be.

Jamie Romak, for now, is the fifth outfielder, with Chone Figgins and/or Gordon as emergency options after that. Like always, the four outfielder situation seems to have resolved itself without a trade, but there's definitely going to be some trade talks with teams as we get closer to July 31 (i.e. the Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees, etc.). Because Crawford is coming back at some point and Joc Pederson continues to knock on the door.

It may not be fair, but how Kemp and Ethier play over the next month or so will impact which one gets traded. If Crawford was almost entirely untradeable while healthy, he is entirely untradeable on the disabled list.

Photo credit: SD Dirk, Flickr

Exploring some trade ideas involving the Dodgers and their outfielders

The Dodgers outfield situation has gotten a lot clearer. There's Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and everybody else. Scott Van Slyke is proving he can hit Major League pitching (really well) and is surprising everyone with his above-average defense. Joc Pederson continues to be the best-performing player in the minor leagues - he has a 1.125 OPS after 38 games in Triple-A, 11 stolen bases and numerous highlight catches. What more do you want the guy to do? Well, hit lefties, but that's what Van Slyke is for.

Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier are each doing about what you might expect, given their age. They're unfortunately similar right now. Neither can hit lefties at all, but are OK 400 plate-appearance/year outfielders getting paid a lot of money through 2017 ($66 million for Ethier, $77 million for Crawford). Ethier offers positional versatility and a little more on-base percentage. Crawford has way more speed, and that's about it. While Ethier is perceived as having more power, that's from people having a looooong memory. Their isolated slugging (ISO) has been about identical the last five years. Both are now firmly below the average Major League position player in ISO and they're unlikely to reverse the trend at age 32. With performance-enhancing drug testing in place, the vast majority of 32-year-olds are firmly on the downside of their MLB careers.

The Dodgers should feel comfortable now moving one (or both) of Ethier and Crawford for whatever they can get. Kemp's defense has been atrocious in center field, although maybe improving lately as he gets confidence in his health back. So I'd line up (LF-CF-RF) vs righties: Kemp/Pederson/Yasiel Puig and Van Slyke/Kemp/Puig vs. lefties.

So, what could they get for Crawford or Ethier?  Well, nothing, given the contracts. Either one could go on waivers and not be claimed. But if the Dodgers ate some money or threw in some other pieces, what could they get? Still not much, but that's more fun to think about than nothing.

Would the Dodgers be a better team just by getting rid of one? It's debatable. It opens a spot for Pederson, which is the only positive. But consider Miguel Olivo also had an 1.100 OPS at Albuquerque this year, which translated to .544 in the bigs. Ethier and Crawford are both serviceable role players on a first-division team, or the Dodgers would be tempted to just cut them.

Someone else's problem is what you could get. Best case, that's a small-market team with a good player due for a big payday. For example, Baltimore decides not to re-sign Matt Wieters ($12M-$15M in arbitration next year, then free agency). They need an outfielder and a starting pitcher (hey, the Dodgers have extra of those too!). But Wieters' elbow issue would likely preclude any deal this season, as he's already on the disabled list, but won't likely need Tommy John surgery.

Houston (Crawford's hometown team) could decide they have enough catching prospects that they can let Jason Castro go before his bill comes due. If the Dodgers pay basically all of Carl's salary, and throw in a prospect of our own, they'd oblige.

I focus on catchers because A.J. Ellis is getting old too, and given the starting point for his skills, a little decline makes him a backup pretty quick.

But more likely, it's just some other overpaid, not-very-good-anymore guy. That can work out just because the Dodgers have too many outfielders and someone else needs an outfield but has too many relief pitchers or something. Rafael Soriano, Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton all fit that bill.

What do the Dodgers need besides more overpaid ex-closers or young catchers? Backup infielders.

Wouldn't you know it, an expensive backup infielder got designated for assignment on Wednesday. Jeff Keppinger is a decent second baseman/not very good third baseman/emergency everything else who is owed about $7.5M this year and next, and might be expected to get on base at a .310 clip and slug .360. Not much of a fit. The White Sox also have reliever Matt Lindstrom earning $4M, and they'd probably like to get rid of him too. That's the kind of "why bother" package the Dodgers could probably get in trade. You have to really believe in Pederson to go down that road.

The Diamondbacks probably want to get rid of Didi Gregorius and probably want hometown, high-grit Ethier, if they can get over their seething resentment of all things Dodger. The Dodgers do not have a credible MLB-ready replacement shortstop right now, so that's a need they could fill.

It's hard to make a match, but the Dodgers have shown a willingness to get creative. If they give up on re-signing Hanley Ramirez, for example, there's some blockbusters to be put together. The Tigers and Yankees would very much like to have that conversation with us and that's a situation where you can make them take an albatross contract if they want to get the deal done (poor Crawford, shuffled as an unwanted throw-in from one rich team to another!). Of course, that gets back to the Dodgers not having a credible MLB-ready replacement SS right now and neither do those teams. So, even in this sad fantasy world where Ramirez doesn't see us anymore, it's still hard to get a match without a third team.

Photo credit: File photo

Dodgers 6, Giants 2: Kemp and Hanley mash, Zack Greinke excels

Welcome back, Beast Mode.

Matt Kemp hit his first two homers of 2014 and continued to look excellent at the dish. The Bison drove in three and has looked like The Bison of old through three games while displaying good command of the strike zone.

Hanley Ramirez also homered twice in his breakout game of the young season, driving in a pair and adding a double in the process.

Zack Greinke whiffed eight without allowing a walk over six frames of two-run, six baserunner ball. The two runs allowed were dingers off the bats of Brandon Belt and Hunter Pence. Greinke threw 69 of his 94 pitches for strikes.

The bullpen was excellent following Greinke, as four relievers combined to fan eight Giants over three innings of work. Kenley Jansen wrapped things up by striking out three around a broken-bat bloop single.

Yasiel Puig missed the game due to an injured thumb suffered from sliding head-first into first base yesterday. It's a dumb thing to do when it's Nick Punto doing it, and it's equally dumb for Puig or any player to slide head-first into first.

Looking, statistically, at the Dodgers' potential outfield platoons

The first day Don Mattingly got the chance to deal with the four outfielder situation, a tough lefty was on the mound and he actually sat Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford. It was kind of obvious to sit one or the other so Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig could play. But going the extra step and playing Scott Van Slyke in left field was a surprising move.

If you take a look at each player's career splits, the SVS/Kemp/Puig outfield is by far the best Dodger fans can do against left-handed pitching. I'm going to use a stat called wRC+ (weight runs created) here which wraps up all you do at the plate and compares it to a league-average hitter (100 is average).


Ethier and Crawford are terrible hitters vs. lefties -- each in the 75-80 range (think Eric Young/Zack Cozart). Kemp and Puig are monsters against LHP, around 170 (think Mike Trout/Chris Davis) and Van Slyke, so far, has been about 20 percent better than league-average (Jay Bruce/Adam Jones). The comparisons I'm making are in terms of the players' overall line, not their split against lefties.

Against Righties, Puig and Ethier are by far the two best choices, around 145 (Joe Mauer/Matt Holliday). Crawford, Kemp and Van Slyke are all about the same, close to 110 (Kyle Seager/Austin Jackson). Now, it's not going be SVS in that situation, so it comes down to Crawford vs. Kemp. Crawford has the edge in defense and baserunning, and remember, we didn't use Crawford against lefties. So if you wanted him to get any starts, you have to give him most of these.

The problem is that about 70-75 percent of the starting pitchers are right-handed, and you're not going to sit Kemp that much. Ethier and Crawford have both been saying team-positive things about the situation, while Kemp, honestly, has not.

Typically, even in games started by righties, around the seventh inning the opposing manager is going to be thinking LOOGY when Ethier and/or Crawford come up. They won't go that way if they know Kemp is on the bench, though. Or even if it's just Van Slyke on the bench, as long as Donnie actually pinch-hits aggressively in that situation, the Dodgers could find themselves in a lot of good match-ups this year. Joc Pederson could get a call-up, especially if there is an injury, but he is another left-handed hitter who can't hit left-handed pitching, so he doesn't really fit well.

For the three outfield spots and some pinch-hit and DH duty, there are probably 600 plate appearances against lefties and 1,525 against righties. But there's a further constraint, as Crawford can only playing left field. Kemp could play all three positions, but that'd just be another thing to upset him. With his arm, Puig is going to be in right if he's on the field (barring the occasional CF emergency).

If you work the platoons as much as you reasonably can, you can get Ethier and Crawford about 450-475 plate appearances each, 80 percent of which would be against righties (we want them to get more than that 70-75 percent number the league offers). Puig and Kemp can get 535 PA each, two-thirds more against righties (we want them to get less than that 70-75 percent number the league offers). And there's still 150-200 chances for SVS, counting a little first base in there. Except for Vans Slyke, these guys have all been regulars and are used to playing the league-average amount against  righties. If we can get the platoon advantage to the degree I just spelled out, I'm comfortable (after running the numbers) raising my projection (wRC+) for all these guys a little.

	My Official Projection	Maximum Platooning
Ethier	109	115
Crawford	105	107
Kemp	124	127
Puig	133	135
Van Slyke	103	105

Not a huge impact, but it helps. In fact, the total impact to the team in the wins above replacement framework would be close to one expected win.

It puts some kind of logic behind who plays in which situaton. For Ethier, it is a particular boon. I had been looking for him to continue his decline, but if the Dodgers can finally hold him out against lefties, his production could have more of an impact.

Photo credit: McD22, Flickr

Dodgers 3, Padres 2: Yasiel Puig disrespects San Diego with a Monster homer

The Dodgers moved to 3-1 on the young season with a win over the Padres behind Puig's bat and Zack Greinke's solid season debut.

• Puig hit his first home run of the season, a 2-run bomb to left. It was so, so disrespectful. He also singled.
• Juan Uribe had his second 3-hit game of the season as he doubled once and singled twice.
• Greinke threw five innings of two-run ball, allowing four baserunners while fanning five and walking two. He also allowed a long-ball and threw a wild pitch.
• Kenley Jansen worked out of a tough bases-loaded ninth inning jam to close the door on the Friars, striking out a pair in the process.
• Chris Withrow, Paco Rodriguez, and J.P. Howell all threw scoreless innings in relief of Greinke.

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Brian Wilson is headed to the DL with elbow issues. Eric Stephen of True Blue LA has more on the injury and Wilson's attempt to pitch through it on Sunday.

Dodgers 7, Diamondbacks 5: Give me ALL your Ryu Australia puns

The Dodgers avoided a bit of a late scare to hold off the D-Backs and sweep the opening 2-game series in Australia.

• Hyun-Jin Ryu was excellent in five innings, allowing two hits and a walk while striking out five. He left the game after injuring his toe. It, thankfully, does not sound serious.
• Yasiel Puig had himself a 3-hit night (double, two singles) and drove in two as well. Puig was also bitten by the injury bug as his back is sore.
• Dee Gordon and Juan Uribe also chipped in with three hits and a run driven in apiece.
• Adrian Gonzalez stole a base.
• Alex Guerrero had his first official plate appearance and struck out. He's almost certainly about to be sent down for some minor league seasoning.
• The bullpen ran into some trouble in the ninth with a big lead. Jose Dominguez fared the worst -- two walks and a 2-run single -- while Kenley Jansen was taken deep by Mark Trumbo.

Photo Credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers 3, Diamondbacks 1: Scott Van Smash and Kid K wrangle Snakes

The 2014 "Season Opener" is officially in the books as the Dodgers took down the Diamondbacks 3-1 in Sydney, Australia. Behind Scott Van Slyke and Clayton Kershaw, the Blue Crew got the season started with a bang. Here are some notes from the opener, of which I saw four innings live before entrusting my DVR with the rest and knocking out at 3 a.m. PST.

• Today's game only further emphasizes why Scott Van Slyke should have been a part of the bench from day one in 2013. He's the only true power bat on the bench, can play three of the four corner spots, and crushes lefties. If a guy who posts a .342 OBP, .465 SLG, .353 wOBA, and 129 wRC+ can't find a permanent bench spot, what kind of bench are you building? Thankfully, SVS will have that permanent spot this season. A two-run bomb, double off the base of the wall, and walk is just the kind of start he needed.
• Kershaw was his usual dominant self in the end, although there was clearly a bit of rust and working out of early season kinks. He allowed six baserunners over six and two-thirds innings, whiffing seven while issuing a lone walk (102 pitches, 73 for strikes). He also singled before being thrown out trying to stretch it into a double.
• I'm no pitching expert by any means, but it did seem to me like Kersh was a bit too reliant on his fastball at times, particularly in a long at-bat against fellow pitcher Wade Miley.
• Hanley Ramirez pulled up lame as he headed back to the dugout late in the game, but did finish out the contest in the field. Hopefully it's nothing major, but I wouldn't play him today under any circumstances and would sit him until the real regular season stateside gets underway. He's far too important to risk, especially with the hammy injury last season.
• Kenley Jansen was Kenley Jansen, fanning one D-Back in a scoreless ninth.
• I'm surprised they sent Clayton back out for the seventh considering it's the opening game of the series; the quirkiness of playing it overseas; and Clayton running the bases hard in the top half of the inning.
• That being said, if you are going to send him out for that frame, let him get the final out in it when the batter is not Paul Goldschmidt, who had hit Clayton well. Clayton was obviously tired, but in no circumstance is Chris Perez a better option.
• Don Mattingly is truly like his mentor Joe Torre when it comes to bullpen management, which is to say I don't get it.
• A better defensive center fielder with more range probably catches Goldschmidt's double in the sixth inning.
• Yasiel Puig struck out three times while going 0-for-5, but he did lace a ball in his final at-bat.
• Alex Guerrero, who I would argue should be starting at second, technically made his debut as he was announced as a pinch-hitter before being pulled back for Mike Baxter.
• Mark Trumbo is such a bad defender that he fooled the cameras and SVS into thinking Scott's clear double off of the wall was a homer.
• A fan behind home plate wearing Red Sox garb attempted to start the Joseph Gordon-Levitt "Angels in the Outfield wings-wave" during the sixth inning. It failed. I would prefer that to the wave itself though.

Photo Credit: Dustin Nosler, Dodgers Digest