Dodgers' Spring Training position battle: Backup infielders

With the signing of Justin Turner, the Dodgers officially have viable options for their utility infield spots. The Dodgers may not be done adding infielders. Emilio Bonifacio is out there at 2B/3B/SS/LF/CF/RF (but for $3.5M plus something in trade), as is Brett Wallace at 1B and emergency 3B (emphasis on "emergency").

Bonifacio is super fast and can hold his own at all those positions (well, maybe not SS). Wallace has a little power. Also, there's rumors of an international man of mystery.

The signed options, as of now, are a mix of guys who are bad at offense and defense vs. guys who are terrible at offense and good at defense. How can we choose? Well, the WAR framework helps. Its components quantify the runs above/below average a player creates on offense and on defense, and lets you add it all up.

Scott Van Slyke can handle first base, as can Juan Uribe. So there's not a big need there. But second base, third base and shortstop depth are all big concerns. Hanley Ramirez can play third base, but probably won't be asked to. Alex Guerrero can play SS (and maybe 3B?) but probably won't be asked to. Although, Van Slyke is probably up and down to Albuquerque all year, unless an outfielder is traded.

The candidates, in brief

Dee Gordon - Extreme speed, not much bat, although showed an increased patience last year and seems to have bulked up (from stick figure to slightly thicker stick figure) over the winter. Borderline unplayable at SS, he's been learning 2B & CF. Left-handed batter. He has never played 3B.
Chone Figgins - Gordon with a little less (but still great) speed, a little more bat, good defense at 3B. Experience at all 3 OF spots, but horrible numbers out there despite the speed. At 36, and having fallen over a cliff several years ago, comes with big question mark stamped on his back. Switch-hitter.
Justin Turner - The best hitter of the bunch. Primarily a 2B who can cover 3B and SS (not well). Could play 1B and OF if necessary. Despite checking all the boxes for "grit" (especially the "ginger" box), he does not come with a reputation for grit. The Mets let him go because they didn't like his hustle. Unlike the Diamondbacks and Rockies (and apparently Mets), the Dodgers are actually fairly progressive in the grit department, repeatedly able to look past small things to see the total value.
Brendan Harris - Bad hitter. Also a bad fielder, although has done alright at second base. Can field 3B, SS and 1B poorly.
Miguel Rojas - Bat is really, really, really not there. He did horrible at Double-A and could likely embarrass himself in the big leagues, possibly to a historic degree. Scouting report on the glove is great though. Plus-SS who has some experience at 2B and 3B.
Justin Sellers - Bat is not there, although has the glove to contribute at SS, 3B and 2B.

I'm going to give you my projections of how each player will fare offensively next year, and convert that to a number of runs above (actually below) the average major league hitter. The baserunning runs and the overall offensive runs are scaled to 600 plate appearances. However, none of these guys will likely not reach that number in a single season for the rest of their careers.

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	Base Running	OPS+	Off. Runs above Avg
Dee Gordon	0.248	0.332	0.308	8	78	-8
Chone Figgins	0.254	0.329	0.324	5	81	-9
Justin Turner	0.264	0.323	0.374	-1	92	-7
Brendan Harris	0.239	0.285	0.339	-2	71	-21
Miguel Rojas	0.220	0.260	0.270	1	47	-35
Justin Sellers	0.228	0.295	0.308	-3	67	-25

Well, what about defense? Can Rojas or Sellers make up 15 -25 runs with their glove over Gordon/Figgins/Turner (scaled to full time)? Harris is pretty much out, as his bad fielding outside of 2B can't make up for bad hitting and bad baserunning. I don't mean to sound so harsh, but the time when he was an adequate major league player was seven years ago

Twenty runs is a lot of runs to save. The general range of great to terrible fielding is from about +15 to -15 runs over the course of the season. These guys all play the same positions, but positional adjustment would have to be figured in too since Gordon and Figgins hardly play SS. It's hard for me to translate Rojas' minor league fielding numbers to major league runs saved, but he's clearly above average at all three spots. After his back injury, Sellers is probably not the fielder he once was -- although he's still quite good.

Looking at major league and minor league stats, I'll take a shot at predicting everyone's defensive value at 2B/3B/SS in terms of runs saved over a full year. Gordon has the advantage of supposedly playing CF too (although he has never to my knowledge attempted 3B). Some of these guys have played 1B or OF in a pinch, but you wouldn't want any of them there for more than a few innings per year.

Player	2B	3B	SS
Dee Gordon	-10		-15
Chone Figgins	-10	5	-15
Justin Turner	-10	-5	-5
Brendan Harris	0	-10	-10
Miguel Rojas	15	10	10
Justin Sellers	5	10	10
Position Value	2.5	2.5	7.5

How about need? It'll be interesting to see if Gordon can handle CF, because the Dodgers only have Andre Ethier as an OK option there.

If the Dodgers go with a 5-man rotation and 7-man pen, that leaves the fourth OF, Tim Federowicz, and three other bench spots. Van Slyke will have one sometimes, leaving two or three spots. You really need a backup SS, which to me comes down to Turner or Sellers. The 18-run advantage of Turner on offense is pretty much countered by Sellers' edge in the field. It's hard to see Rojas being so good on defense that he makes up another 10 runs on top of Sellers. Based on Gordon's record to date, -15 is actually a generous grade. And Figgins hasn't been trusted to play there in years.

If it's me, I'd take Turner & Gordon. Figgins could make it if he really shows something in Spring Training, or Van Slyke is spending some time in Albuquerque.

Graphic credit: Cody Stumpo, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue 

Dodgers invite top prospects to 7th annual Winter Development Program

As they've done for seven straight years, the Dodgers are holding their Winter Development Program at Dodger Stadium, beginning Sunday.

The main goals of the program are to help Dodger minor-leaguers not only prepare for the majors, but also to prepare themselves for the off-the-field aspect of being a Major League Baseball player.

From the Dodgers' official press release:

"Fifteen of the club’s top minor league prospects will be in Los Angeles for the event, which includes seminars with Dodger staffers and workouts that focus on fundamentals, strength training and conditioning. Throughout the week, Dodger prospects will familiarize themselves with the greater Los Angeles area through social events and a community service visit to A Place Called Home, a youth center in South Los Angeles. The program is highlighted by sessions with Don Mattingly, Tommy Lasorda, Don Newcombe, Maury Wills, Eric Karros, Shawn Green, Stan Kasten and Ned Colletti and the annual Legends Dinner with Dodger alumni."

The attendees are as follows:

Pedro Baez
Chili Buss
Jose Dominguez
Yimi Garcia
Zach Lee
Matt Magill
Jarret Martin
Pratt Maynard
Chris O'Brien
Joc Pederson
Chris Reed
Miguel Rojas
Seth Rosin
Scott Schebler
Ross Stripling

Lee, Magill, Pederson and Reed all attended the 2013 Winter Development Program.

Baez, Garcia and Martin were added to the 40-man roster in November, so they were locks to be there. Lee and Schebeler were the Dodgers (and my) minor-league pitcher and player of the year, respectively.

Rosin was acquired from the Mets after they selected him from the Phillies in December's Rule 5 Draft. Stripling is the best prospect of the first-timers.

Magill threw a handful of games with the Dodgers, while Dominguez pitched briefly with them last season before suffering a quad injury. Buss had the smallest cup of coffee of any of the minor-leaguers invited to the program.

O'Brien

The two catchers -- Maynard and O'Brien -- both played in the Arizona Fall League (as did Garcia and Martin).

The most interesting -- and I use that term loosely -- is the inclusion of Rojas. General Manager Ned Colletti mentioned Rojas by name in a radio interview a couple weeks ago as someone who could be in the second base mix if Alexander Guerrero isn't ready to go. I blew off the thought, as did others. But the invitation to the program leads me to believe there's at least been some talk about him either being a utility infielder or the team's second baseman come March in Australia.

The Dodgers are really doing this just to spite me. I still maintain there's no way Rojas is on the Dodgers' roster come opening day. His glove may be really good (though, it probably isn't even a 65 or 70), but one has to at least hit a little to be a major leaguer. Rojas has displayed minimal ability to hit at the minor-league level. If I can say something nice about his offense, it's the fact he's walks a little (7.6 percent) and doesn't strikeout a whole lot (11.4 percent).

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dee Gordon could get one final shot to be a valuable player with the Dodgers

Dee Gordon shows the volatility that are prospects. He was once the Dodgers' top prospect, drawing comparisons to guys like Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. Now, he's struggling to hang on as a utility player in the majors.

With Alexander Guerrero's injury concerns in the Dominican Winter League, perhaps Gordon gets one more shot as a starter in the majors -- at second base with the Dodgers.

Gordon began the offseason by going to the Dominican to play the outfield with Licey. He played primarily center field, but also dabbled in the corners. He handled himself well enough, reportedly, as he surely has the athleticism to handle the outfield. The bad thing is, his bat doesn't play especially well out there. He's a career .256/.301/.312 hitter in 669 plate appearances, which leaves a lot to be desired.

He's now playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League in hopes of him acclimating himself at second base. He played 20 games at second in Triple-A last year and three with the Dodgers (totaling 3 2/3 innings).

The question isn't particularly with his bat, but with his glove. He was a below-average shortstop. Second base isn't terribly different than shortstop, but a player still needs to be sure-handed at the position. That, and inaccurate throws, were Gordon's bugaboos at the position. A shift to second base should, in theory, cut down on the throwing errors. His arm is plenty strong, but sometimes he doesn't know where it's going.

With Guerrero's hamstring injury preventing him from playing a full winter ball season, second base could be wide open for Gordon's taking.

There is no other viable second base option beyond Gordon and Guerrero on the Dodgers' roster -- even in the minors. Sure, General Manager Ned Colletti mentioned Miguel Rojas by name in a radio interview, there's no earthly way Rojas breaks camp as the Dodgers' opening day second baseman. The Dodgers don't need an offensive powerhouse at second, but thinking Rojas -- a career .234/.302/.287 hitter in the minors -- could be the team's opening day second baseman is borderline clinical.

As of now, it's Gordon's job for the taking. It's entirely possible the Dodgers acquire someone to play a couple months as the starting second baseman while Guerrero gets more seasoning in the minors (preferably Triple-A). But Gordon being able to handle the position would make things a lot easier, and increase his utility.

Of course, the Dodgers not picking up Mark Ellis' option (would have cost them an additional $4.75 million) and them not retaining Nick Punto looks like a mistake right now. What do they say about hindsight and 20/20...?

If Gordon is ever going to amount to anything other than a mediocre utility player (which is isn't, at the moment), this could be his last shot at doing so. He could bat eighth, not make mind-numbing errors at second and be a player who provides positive value (or at the very least, replacement level value), then the Dodgers would be more than thrilled. But I'm not holding my breath.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue