Zach Lee should be the Dodgers' No. 5 starter in 2014 if no Tanaka, Price

It's Dec. 20, and the Dodgers still haven't acquired a big-name starting pitcher. It isn't necessarily a huge need, but it'd be nice to have one more big arm in the rotation.

The Dan Haren signing was really good, but I envision him as the team's No. 5 starter rather than its No. 4. But there's a very real scenario in which he's the No. 4 starter, and that isn't the worst thing in the world.

The market has been quiet. David Price rumors abound, and I'm not as opposed to him as I was earlier this offseason (or as others, including the Dodgers, it seems). Masahiro Tanaka may or may not be posted (somewhat reminiscent of the Alexander Guerrero situation). 

Obviously, Tanaka would be the preference. He's younger than Price and wouldn't cost prospects. Price would cost prospects and a length contract extension. With the Dodgers still needing to lock up Clayton Kershaw (hurry up already!) and Hanley Ramirez (could be soon), a Price extension might be No. 3 on the "To Do" list.

Some have suggested Price would be an insurance policy in case Kershaw -- somehow -- decides to leave via free agency. After all, he's "curious" about the prospect, and who could blame him?

If the Dodgers don't acquire Tanaka or Price, it's unlikely the Dodgers would sign a free agent. Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana both have draft pick compensation tied to them, while the team has shown little-to-no-interest in Matt Garza. Aside from that trio, there isn't really any starter worth signing.

Josh Beckett would be the No. 5 starter if the season were to start today. But let's be honest: No one wants to watch Beckett pitch anymore.

He's probably done, but he's also due nearly $16 million in 2014. There might be the obligation to pitch him -- and the Dodgers probably will -- but they should spare us the inevitable mound meltdown by Beckett. He had one good start in 2013 and was surprisingly solid for the Dodgers in 2012. But, as Daniel Brim laid out today on his blog (seriously, check it out), the history of those who attempt to come back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery don't tend to have much success.

My alternative: Zach Lee.

Lee, 22, is pretty much MLB-ready and, if he isn't traded, he should be given serious consideration for the No. 5 spot in the rotation. He enjoyed his best season to date in the Southern League, posting a 3.22 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 2.2 BB/9 and a 8.3 K/9. All of those numbers were career-bests for the Dodgers' 2010 first-round pick. He's getting better every year he pitches.

If he begins the season in the minors, the Dodgers could conceivably send him to Albuquerque, as they did with Matt Magill last season. Almost everyone knows the Pacific Coast League is none too friendly to pitchers, and the Dodgers tend to avoid sending their top starter prospects there. However, if Lee went back to Chattanooga, it'd be his third stint with the Lookouts. He doesn't have much more to prove.

His stuff ticked up slightly in 2013, and he definitely has a future as a starting pitcher. He won't be a No. 1 or No. 2, but I see him as a low-end No. 3 or high-end No. 4 at worse. Plus, it'd be nice to see the Dodgers give a youngster a shot. They haven't really done so since Kershaw and Chad Billingsley (through no fault of their own).

If I'm Lee, I'd attach myself to Zack Greinke's hip in spring training and absorb everything the cerebral starter has to offer.

The Dodgers appear committed to keeping the farm system in tact. If they want to see what Lee's true worth is, this might be the time to find out. If the truly want to model their farm system and development after the Cardinals, this would be a fine time to start.

As for what to do with Beckett: I'm not sure. Make him the long reliever? Eat almost all his contract to trade him? Designate him for assignment? All of them seem like viable options. Honestly, I don't particularly care. I want the best 25 guys out there, and Lee profiles to be better than Beckett is right now. Beckett won't make-or-break the Dodgers' season.

I really hope the Dodgers land Tanaka. I'd be OK with them landing Price. If they must include Corey Seager to land Price, then I'd like to see them sign Aledmys Diaz to replace him (that's pretty much the only scenario in which that is acceptable, but it still isn't preferred). If those two options fall through, Lee is my guy. And I've been higher on Lee than most in the last couple of years (even if he won't be my No. 1 prospect for 2014).

One way or another, I'd rather not see Beckett throw another pitch as a starter for the Dodgers again. It's nothing personal, it's just the fact that Lee is the better option.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers' Winter Meetings shopping list: Starting pitcher - Tanaka (or bust), Price, Garza

In the second of a four-part series, I look at who and what the Dodgers should be looking for when Monday's Winter Meetings come 'round.

I looked at third base on Friday, and they certainly won't need a shortstop if the rumors of a Hanley Ramirez contract extension are true (pretty sure they are).

• Third base
• Starting pitcher
• Bench pieces
• Left-handed RP and/or power right-handed RP

Masahiro Tanaka

There's really only one starting pitcher the Dodgers should be in on -- Tanaka. With the new posting system between Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball seemingly close, it may not be up to the Dodgers whether they want to go after Tanaka.

His parent club Rakuten Golden Eagles are said to be hesitant to post him because they'd only get $20 million in a posting fee.

All the money in the world couldn't change this fact. Under the new rules, MLB teams can post a maximum of $20 million for players posted by NPB clubs. If Tanaka isn't posted, he won't be a free agent until after the 2015 season. The Golden Eagles could choose to post him next winter if they want, but they also risk a year of taxing Japanese league pitching on the 25-year-old's arm. It's a gamble, but a gamble that might be worth it because he's the best pitcher in Japan.

I've written extensively about Tanaka here and at Yahoo Sports, so my thoughts should be well-known. I want the Dodgers to get this guy. I believe he's their No. 1 offseason target and would slot in quite nicely as the No. 4 starter (for now).

If he is posted, the Dodgers -- and probably 10-15 other teams (at least) -- will post $20 million to negotiate with him. In the end, the Dodgers should be able to beat out the likes of the Yankees, Cubs and Rangers. I predict a 6-year, $108 million deal.

David Price

Price might be the second-best left-handed pitcher in the game (behind that Clayton Kershaw fella). So, why am I hesitant for the Dodgers to go after him?

I wrote about it at Yahoo in October. Basically, the Dodgers would likely have to give up one of Corey Seager or Julio Urias, plus a combination of Joc Pederson, Zach Lee, Chris Reed and Chris Withrow. It just doesn't seem to make that much sense

Price is a luxury at this point, as is Tanaka. The difference is, Price would cost prospects, and the Dodgers seem hellbent on preserving the system (which is great).

The former Cy Young award winner will get traded this winter, it's just a matter of where he lands. After Robinson Cano signed his mega contract with the Mariners, I'd put my money on them. If they offer Taijuan Walker in a package for Price, there's almost no way the Dodgers could beat that.

Matt Garza

If the Dodgers must go the "real" free agent route, I guess Garza would be the best option. He struggled after being dealt from the Cubs to the Rangers, but he's a quality pitcher. He won't be worth whatever contract he gets, but he'll be a solid No. 3-4 starter for the next four-plus years.

The Garza market should heat up after Price is traded and it's determined whether Tanaka is posted. Then, he could be the most attractive free agent starter because there's no draft pick compensation tied to him like there is with Ervin Santna and Ubaldo Jimenez.

I wrote about starting pitcher options last month as well. They're not pretty.

Photo credit:WKnight94, Wikimedia Commons

Dodgers should pursue Hanley Ramirez instead of Chase Headley

While the hottest Dodger rumor of the day is a Matt Garza trade involving Zach Lee and others, there is a potential trade not many are talking about.

The Dodgers have needed to add quality bats to the team for years. That's no secret and this year is no exception. But in this wafer-thin market, there aren't a lot of options.

The Padres appear to be asking a lot for Chase Headley, who is the best third baseman reportedly on the market.to get him, the Dodgers would likely have to deal Lee and at least another B-/C+ prospect to get him. While he's under control through 2014 and should perform much better outside the unfriendly confines of Petco Park, I'm still not sure I'd be rushing to give up Lee to get him.

At this rate, I might not even give up Allen Webster to get Headley. Webster's resurgence has been fantastic to see.

But should the Dodgers be looking elsewhere for offensive help?

The Marlins have reportedly been gauging trade interest in their shortsop-turned-third baseman Hanley Ramirez.

From Scott Miller of CBS Sports:

"Rival executives who have spoken with Marlins people believe they've never been more open to the idea. Halfway through a bitterly disappointing season, the Marlins aren't so much trying to blow things up (as they have in the past) as they are simply trying to change the ingredients.

It's not that they think they're that far from winning so much as the Marlins simply do not like their team. They've decided that the mix is bad, the pieces don't fit, the personalities have not coalesced.

In other words, they've come to terms with the obvious."

With the Marlins' big trade today, moving Ramirez indeed seems more likely than ever.

Ramirez, a former batting champion, 30-30 man and MVP runner-up, has not been the same player he was as recently as 2010.

Ramirez is hitting just .245/.328/.405 in the last two seasons. His 2011 was shortened by injury and his 2012 is marginally better.

Despite the lack of production, the price to get him -- prospects- and money-wise -- will be greater than that of Headley. Still, if Ramirez is available, the Dodgers need to get in on the sweepstakes.

Let's face it: they're not going to get Justin Upton (as much as I'd love that). If it comes down to Ramirez and Headley, I'm taking Ramirez (if not both, which would gut the system).

Pros/Cons

Hanley Ramirez
Pros: Age, power, past performance, speed, SS or 3B
Cons: Attitude, declining production, owed roughly $39 million through 2014, poor defense

Chase Headley
Pros: Age, defense, friendly contract, no attitude, on-base ability
Cons: Lack of power, limited ceiling, no superstar potential

The Marlins signed Jose Reyes to a big contract in the offseason and moving Ramirez to third base hasn't exactly worked out offensively or defensively.

What would it take to get him?

Editor's note: After some feedback, it's been determined I'm giving up too much in this deal. So, I've amended it by removing Joc Pederson.

To Florida: Lee, Scott Van Slyke, Chris Reed, Shawn Tolleson
To Los Angeles: Ramirez, Ricky Nolasco

I'm not saying it's a good possibility the Dodgers get Ramirez, but considering the Padres want a lot for an affordable Headley and the Dodgers would have to pay a premium with an interdivision trade, Ramirez might make more sense.

The Marlins get salary relief (to use on free agents in the winter), a Top 50 prospect in Lee and a budding Top 100 prospect in Pederson. Reed has lots of talent but is still an unknown. Van Slyke is a guy who can player right now for the Marlins and Tolleson is a quality bullpen arm who can go right into their bullpen. The Fish always seem to acquire MLB-ready relievers in trades.

The Dodgers get a legitimate stick in Ramirez and a starting pitcher in Nolasco who is owed about $16 million through next year. Ramirez is due about $39 million through 2014.

The best asset the Dodgers' favor right now is the ability to take on money (and not just in lieu of including quality prospects). Ownership has not been quiet about that fact. This could be a golden opportunity to put that benefit into effect.

Ramirez is a risky acquisition, but it's a risk well worth taking. He has superstar potential, even if he hasn't shown it for the last few seasons. The Dodgers cannot go forward with Luis Cruz at shortstop. Until Dee Gordon returns, I'd play Ramirez at shortstop and bat him leadoff. He's enjoyed a lot of success out of the leadoff spot in his career.

Ramirez, like another Ramirez the Dodgers acquired a few years ago, needs a change of scenery. This move would also allow the team go acquire a guy like Justin Morneau (another risky proposition) which would immediately improve the lineup.

Photo credits: SD Dirk, Flickr

Dodgers switch focus from Ryan Dempster to Matt Garza

Despite reports, the Dodgers are probably still monitoring the Ryan Dempster situation. However, they've now apparently shifted their focus to Matt Garza.

I looked at Dempster v. Garza last month and said either would be a solid acquisition. Dempster would be cheaper (or so we thought) and Garza would cost more. That hasn't changed.

But Garza isn't much better than one Chad Billingsley. Their numbers are eerily similar. In fact, Billingsley's career numbers are better than that of Garza's.

So, the question becomes: What would you give up for Chad Billingsley? Because that's basically the pitcher a team would acquire.

For Garza, I'd make guys like Zach Lee, Allen Webster and Joc Pederson off limits. I'd rather the Dodgers keep those guys or use them to get a bat.

The trade deadline is less than 10 days away. If the Dodgers are still insistent on buying (which they are), it's going to be an extremely interesting 10 days.

The rumor mill is already running rampant. The Dodgers have been linked (in some way) to the following players in addition to Dempster and Garza: Michael Cuddyer, Chase Headley, Cliff Lee, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and some I'm sure I missed.

The team remains intent on acquiring a bat, a starting pitcher and a left-handed reliever. Ned Colletti, Stan Kasten and Co. will be awfully busy in the coming days. Let's just hope no foolish deals are made.

Photo credit: dbking, Flickr

Chad Billingsley's elbow MRI could impact John Ely and Ryan Dempster

News broke this morning that Dodgers' starting pitcher Chad Billingsley was scratched from his start because of an "undisclosed injury."

Undisclosed injury progressed to elbow tenderness which progressed to him needing an MRI.

Oh boy. Elbow MRIs are never a good thing. Even if it isn't the worst (torn ulnar collateral ligament), he'll probably need a disabled list stint.

Reports are Billingsley felt the pain for the last few starts, but thought it was just normal soreness. He told Manager Don Mattingly about it yesterday (something Mattingly wasn't happy about), leading to today's scratch.

It's hard to know how long Billingsley's been hurting. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent in his last five starts.

Date       Avg       Max
6/16       91.5       93.7
6/22       92.4       94.5
6/27       91.5       93.0
7/2         92.3       93.8
7/7         91.4       92.6

So, we'll see what happens with the results of the MRI. I'm not optimistic.

That means we could see John Ely quite soon. The 26-year-old is having a stellar season for the Isotopes in the Pacific Coast League: 3.22 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9 and a 3.29 FIP.

If anyone in the minors deserves a shot this season, it's Ely. His turnaround has been remarkable considering he struggled mightily in Albuquerque last season: 6.11 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 4.78 FIP).

It also means we could see a trade sooner rather than later. It's 16 days to the trade deadline and the Dodgers have been linked to Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and Cole Hamels. The Dodgers have scouts watching both teams.

I wrote about Dempster and Garza last month, but I've yet to write about Hamels. Apparently, the Dodgers have a deal on the table for Dempster that includes two pitching prospects. Some speculated (myself included) about who the pitching prospects might be. Garrett Gould, since he was on the table for Carlos Lee, is likely to be one of them. It's anyone's guess who else it could be, but the names Chris Withrow and Aaron Miller came up.

We'll see what happens with the MRI and the potential trade, but I'd bet a lot of money that Dempster will be in Dodger Blue within the next 10 days.

Photo credits

Billingsley: SD Dirk, Flickr

Dempster: mootown, Flickr

Dodgers have interest in Cubs' RHPs Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster

I wasn't intending to write a post about the Dodgers' interest in Ryan Dempster, but it goes hand-in-hand with the Dodgers' reported interest in Matt Garza.

Nathan Eovaldi has filled in admirably in the absence of Ted Lilly. There's no timetable for his return.

Everyone behind Clayton Kershaw is no better than a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, but are guys like Garza and Dempster that much better than who the Dodgers have right now?

If the Dodgers are going to their resources to acquire talent, they should at least focus on acquiring some offense before another pitcher.

Matt Garza

Garza, 28, is one of the more underrated pitchers in the National League and is a free agent after the 2013 season. He's making $9.5 million this season and gets innings pitched bonuses for 210 ($50,000) and 220 innings ($100,000), meaning he could make as much as $9.65 million this season.

He's never thrown more than 204 2/3 innings in a season (2010) and he's on pace for just 190 this season (assuming 32 games started).

Despite a higher ERA in 2012 (4.04 so far) than 2011 (3.32), some of his peripherals are better than last year's.

His H/9 is down from 8.5 last year to 7.4 this year. His WHIP is down from 1.26 last year (1.30 for his career entering 2012) to 1.12 this season. His BB/9, K/9 and K/BB are pretty close to last year's marks.

Garza boasts a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a low-to-mid-80s slider, a curveball and a changeup. But his best pitch is the fastball. However, he isn't throwing it nearly as much in the National League as he did in the American League.

Last season, he threw the fastball just 53.4 percent of the time (93.7 MPH). This season, he's throwing it 60.1 percent of the time (93.4 MPH). His last three seasons in Tampa Bay (2008-10), he threw it 72.2, 71.1 and 71.5 percent of the time.

I'm a proponent of pitchers using their fastball liberally, especially a fastball like Garza's. Then again, he did have one of the best seasons of his career in 2011, so who knows?

Garza will cost significantly more in prospects/young players than Dempster would, but acquiring him without signing him to a long-term deal wouldn't be a great move by the Dodgers. They'd be getting him for the rest of 2012 and 2013 at the minimum. His salary for 2013 would probably be in the neighborhood of $12-13 million.

There are definitely risks in trying to acquire Garza. The Cubs are going to want a lot in return and the Dodgers are going to have to shell out some cash to keep him around. A positive: It appears the Dodgers can offer him arbitration after the 2013 season. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement prohibits offering arbitration to players who will be free agents the following winter ... like our next pitcher.

Ryan Dempster

Dempster, on the other hand, probably wouldn't cost as much in terms of prospects, but he comes with a higher monetary price tag.

Dempster is making $14 million this season and, at age 35, will be a free agent after the season. He's having a great season so far: 2.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.7 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 3.00 K/BB and will probably be headed to Kansas City for the All-Star Game.

He has reinvented himself in his 30s, going from a hard-throwing fastball/slider guy with a lot of walks to a guy with good control and knows how to pitch.

• Age 21-30: 4.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9
• Age 31-35: 3.3 BB/9, 8.2 K/9

That's an impressive and somewhat drastic change for a guy to make heading into his age-31 season (his best to date).

Dempster's fastball averages 89.4 MPH this season after sitting at 90.3 MPH last season. He's throwing his slider 9 percent more often this season than last -- not unexpected from an aging pitcher. He also has quality split-finger fastball.

He'd be a nice acquisition, if the Dodgers really feel they need another starter.

What would it take to get them?

Note: The Dodgers could potentially use a guy like Bryan LaHair, but I'm going to leave him out of these proposals.

This is what I'd give up to get either one.

To Chicago: Jerry Sands, Angel Sanchez, Shawn Tolleson, Allen Webster
To Los Angeles: Garza

It might seem like a lot, but Garza would be in Dodger Blue for more than a year. The Cubs get a guy who can step into right field (moving David DeJesus to center field), one of the Dodgers' best pitching prospects in Webster, their best relief prospect in Tolleson and a young guy with potential in Sanchez.

The Cubs absolutely stacked in the minor leagues on offense with guys like Javier Baez, Brett Jackson, the recently signed Jorge Soler and the recently drafted Albert Almora, so they're probably more in the market for pitching prospects.

To Chicago: Steve Ames, John Ely, Sanchez
To Los Angeles: Dempster, cash ($2 million)

This one might be a little more realistic. Dempster isn't going to cost a ton and would likely be a rental. The Dodgers have their sights set on Cole Hamels this winter and have guys like Chris Capuano and Harang locked up through 2013. The Cubs get a guy who could replace Dempster in their rotation immediately in Ely and a young pitching prospect in Sanchez and a reliever close to the majors in Ames.

Conclusion

At this rate, I'd prefer the Dodgers go after Dempster than Garza. This post at Obstructed View breaks down Dempster's potential trade value.

"Top 10 hitting prospects     $36.5M
Top 11-25 hitters     $25.1
Top 26-50 hitters     $23.4
Top 51-75 hitters     $14.2
Top 76-100 hitters     $12.5
Top 10 pitching prospects     $15.2
Top 11-25 pitchers     $15.9
Top 26-50 pitchers     $15.9
Top 51-75 pitchers     $12.1
Top 76-100 pitchers     $9.8
Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels)     $7.3
Grade B hitters     $5.5
Grade C pitchers 22 or younger     $2.1
Grade C pitchers 23 or older     $1.5
Grade C hitters 22 or younger     $0.7
Grade C hitters 23 or older     $0.5

The bolded red line is the maximum that we should expect the Cubs to get in return if they traded Dempster today. That's using the high WAR estimate so realistically it's probably closer to the Grade B pitcher or hitter. if they wait until the deadline the Cubs may be looking at only a grade C pitcher or a couple grade C hitters."

This is assume the Cubs eat a majority of the contract. The only guys the Dodgers have who fall into that category are Zach Lee, Webster and Eovaldi. I wouldn't move any of them to acquire Dempster. However, the next line is intriguing because the Dodgers have a ton of those guys (including Lee, Webster and Eovaldi).

Since Garza is locked up through 2013, giving up some talent to get him might not be that big a deal. But if the Dodgers give up any of their top youngsters (Lee, Eovaldi, Chris Reed, Joc Pederson, Rubby De La Rosa) for Garza, I'm not sure I'd be on board. Garza's career numbers aren't that much better than Chad Billingsley's, whom he would be expected to outpitch for the No. 2 spot in the rotation.

The Dodgers could get a starter on the cheap (Dempster) and focus on acquiring a bat with their better trade chips.

Photo credit: mootown, Flickr

2010 Los Angeles Dodger off-season preview, part V

This concludes my five-part off-season preview for the Los Angeles Dodgers. I have chosen four players who are on the trade block and what I think it would take/what I would give up to get them.

These trades aren't intended to deplete the underrated Dodger farm system; just a look at what it might take. The Dodgers could come away with none of these guys, and I think getting more than one is idealistic.

Targets

RHP Zack Greinke, KC
2010: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.4 K/9
- Greinke was the 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner after going 16-8 with a minuscule 2.16 ERA and 1.07 WHIP -- both of which lead the AL.

He took a step back in 2010, but still had a somewhat decent season: 10-14, 4.17 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. This is either a trend or just a bad season. I'm inclined to go with the latter.

It's been said Greinke doesn't want to pitch in a big media market due to his previous bout with social anxiety disorder and depression. Whether or not that is true remains to be seen. Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman tweeted, saying people close to Greinke don't think he'd accept a trade to New York. While Los Angeles is a big market, the media isn't anywhere near as harsh as it is in New York, Boston or Chicago. That's a plus in the Dodgers' column.

One stumbling block is Greinke can block trades to 15 teams due to a clause in his contract. It is unknown which teams are on the list. If the Dodgers are on the list, it doesn't mean a trade is impossible -- Greinke would just have to approve it first.

What would it take to get him?

To Kansas City: SS Dee Gordon, OF/1B Jerry Sands, RHP Ethan Martin, OF Kyle Russell
To Los Angeles: RHP Zack Greinke

Why it works for Kansas City: The Royals nab their shortstop of the future in Gordon, a power-hitting 1B/OF/DH in Sands, a right-hander who still has a lot of potential in Martin and a powerful outfielder in Russell. The Royals have one of the best farm systems in baseball and this trade would only make it better. Plus, the Royals save $27 million, as Greinke is due $13.5 million in 2011 and 2012.

Why it works for L.A.: The Dodgers land a potential ace to team up with Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley. Greinke would flourish in the friend confines of Dodger Stadium and aside from a few columnist (jokes), he wouldn't feel much heat from the media. Giving up Gordon and Sands is a high price to pay, but if the Dodgers really want Greinke, they'd have to do it.

RHP Matt Garza, TB
15-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
- The Rays are looking to trim payroll. Garza is eligible for arbitration and Tampa has a glut of young pitching. Garza is a big-game pitcher and would slot in nicely as the Dodgers' No. 4 starter.

I proposed a trade in my pessimistic Matt Kemp trade post a few weeks ago.

To Tampa Bay: Matt Kemp, Kyle Russell

To Los Angeles: B.J. Upton, Matt Garza

I'm feeling a little better about Kemp remaining a Dodger, but anything can happen.

When Garza was acquired by Tampa for Delmon Young, some people scratched their heads. Three years later, despite Young's solid 2010, the Rays won this deal. Now they could be looking to turn Garza into another win on the trade market.

What would it take to get him?

To Tampa Bay: OF Brian Cavazos-Galvez, 2B Ivan De Jesus, RHP Ethan Martin
To L.A.: RHP Matt Garza

Why it works for TB: The Rays grab three prospects while shedding themselves of Garza's potential $5 million salary for guys who will make league-minimum money. They get a potential impact prospect in Martin, a powerful outfielder in Cavazos-Galvez and a Major League-ready infielder in De Jesus.

Why it works for L.A.: The Dodgers give up solid prospects, including one who was ranked in everyone's top 10 coming into 2010 for a solid No. 3 or 4 starter who is under team control for another two seasons.

1B Adrian Gonzalez, SD
.298/.393/.511, 31 HR, 101 RBI
- Gonzalez is one of the best first basemen in baseball and perennially underrated. The Dodgers had discussion with San Diego before the 2009 trade deadline, but nothing came to fruition.

Gonzalez is a free agent after the 2010 season and there is already talk Padres' General Manager Jed Hoyer will listen to offers for the first baseman (and closer Heath Bell). Plus, he's bound to get a huge deal on the open market, making it likely the Padres cannot afford him. They could be looking to trade him sooner, rather than later.

Gonzalez makes $5.5 million this season and could make three- to four times that on the open market next winter. The Red Sox have been hot for Gonzalez for quite some time. The Dodgers have to compete with them and their overrated farm system. Also, the Padres aren't as likely to deal him within the NL West if there are other options.

What would it take to get him?

To San Diego: 1B James Loney, SS Dee Gordon, RHP Chris Withrow, RHP Josh Lindblom or LHP Scott Elbert
To L.A.: 1B Adrian Gonzalez

Why it works for SD: The Padres get a replacement for Gonzlaez (Loney), their shortstop of the future in Gordon, a right-hander who came into the 2010 season as a top-three Dodger prospect and a close-to-the-majors bullpen arm in either Lindblom or Elbert.

Why it works for L.A.: While it would suck to lose Gordon, getting an impact, middle-of-the-order bat is something that should entice the Dodgers. With Gonzalez not being signed long-term, the Dodgers might not have to give up as much for the slugger.

2B Dan Uggla, FLA
.287/.369/.508, 33 HR, 105 RBI
- Did you know "Uggla" means "owl" in Swedish? Uggla is coming off his best season as a big leaguer in 2010. He's entering his final year of arbitration and the Marlins are always looking to trim salary. While he isn't much with the glove, his bat speaks for itself.

Since debuting in 2006, Uggla has done nothing but OPS .805 or higher every season. He showed some encouraging signs this season, too. His batting average increased 44 points to .287 (career-high) and his on-base percentage increased 15 points to .369 (also a career-high). His walk rate decreased a little in 2010, but he still had a career high in OPS (.877) and OPS+ (130).

What would it take to get him?

To Florida: OF Trayvon Robinson, 2B Ivan De Jesus, RHP Josh Lindblom
To L.A.: 2B Dan Uggla

Why it works for Florida: The Marlins trim salary, as Uggla could make as much as $11- or $12 million in arbitration. They also get a Major League-ready replacement in De Jesus, a potential impact and top-of-the-order center fielder in Robinson and an arm ready for the 'pen in Lindblom.

Why it works for L.A.: The Dodgers get a powerful bat at an unexpected position. With the Dodgers lacking power at certain positions (LF, 3B, 1B), a 2B with pop is quite intriguing. He may have stone hands, but he can't be much worse than Jeff Kent at 2B, right? I would really hate to lose Robinson, but if it means landing Uggla, it might be worth it.

Analysis

Of all the players analyzed above, I'd say the Dodgers have the best chance of landing Uggla, despite his high price tag. The next three in order of likeliness: Garza, Greinke and Gonzalez (lots of "G's").

The Dodgers are going to have to get creative in the trade market, as free agency probably isn't going to land much in terms of impact players. If the Dodgers can somehow, some way come out with, say, Garza and Uggla (without giving up too much), it could be a successful off-season.

I'm sure there will be some "lesser" trade targets, which is where the creative element comes in. I think back to 2004 when Paul DePodesta acquired Jayson Werth before the season for Jason Frasor. I'm hoping the Dodgers can do something like that. Then again, this is Ned Colletti, not DePodesta, so I wouldn't hold my breath.

I'll post my complete off-season plan in the next few days.