2013 Los Angeles Dodgers season review: Starting pitchers

A strong starting rotation has long since been the calling card of the Dodgers, and 2013 was no different. A Cy Young award winner, a big-money free agent who paid off and a rookie led this group.

Despite having question marks at the end of the rotation, the Dodgers were still great in this department.

Dodger starting pitchers by the numbers

62-46 W-L

3.13 ERA

1.19 WHIP

8.3 H/9

0.8 HR/9

2.5 BB/9

7.7 K/9

3.07 K/BB

7 CG

Individual performers (minimum 40 IP)

Clayton Kershaw

16-9, 1.83 ERA, 236 IP, 0.91 WHIP, 6.3 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 4.46 K/BB, 194 ERA+

- What can I say about Kershaw that hasn't already been said about the greatest things in life? He's the best pitcher in the galaxy and has another Cy Young award to show for it. Now, about that contract extension...

Grade: A

Zack Greinke

15-4, 2.63 ERA, 177 2/3 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 3.22 K/BB, 135 ERA+

- Despite suffering a broken collar bone, Greinke was better than advertised in his first season with the Dodgers. He's a "No. 1a," not a "No. 2." The next step: making 30-plus starts and logging 200-plus innings.

Grade: A-

Hyun-Jin Ryu

14-8, 3.00 ERA, 192 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 3.14 K/BB, 119 ERA+

- Ryu's debut season went better than anyone could have expected. Ryu established himself as a legitimate No. 3 starter after the Dodgers inked him out of Korea last year. He's going into his age-27 season and should get better.

Grade: B+

Ricky Nolasco (with Dodgers)

8-3, 3.52 ERA, 87 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 3.57 K/BB, 101 ERA+

- Nolasco got off to a great start with the Dodgers before impolding the last three starts. He, at one time, looked like he might challenge Ryu for the team's No. 3 spot in the playoffs. He only appeared in the NLCS, and didn't fare too well. Still, he was well worth the price the Dodgers paid in young players.

Grade: B

Chris Capuano

4-7, 4.26 ERA, 105 2/3 IP, 1.41 WHIP, 10.6 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 3.38 K/BB, 84 ERA+

- Capuano was all-but-traded in the winter only to remain with the Dodgers for the duration of the 2013 season. He had his ups and downs, but was a somewhat valuable piece for the Dodgers in 2013.

Grade: C-

Stephen Fife

4-4, 3.86 ERA, 58 1/3 IP, 1.53 WHIP, 10.6 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, 93 ERA+

- Fife had asserted himself well, despite suffering the same shoulder injury twice this season. He had a sub-3.00 ERA for a majority of his season before having a rough go at it late. Fife is definitely a nice No. 6 or No. 7 starter for the Dodgers at this point.

Grade: B

Josh Beckett

0-5, 5.19 ERA, 43 1/3 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 1.7 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 2.73 K/BB, 69 ERA+

- Beckett had one good start in Arizona (which he lost). Other than that, he was atrocious and missed most of the season with an injury. He's on the books for 2014, so barring an unforeseen trade or release, he'll be around. Reports say he'll be ready for the start of the season. I'm skeptical about that.

Grade: D-

Chad Billingsley

1-0, 3.00 ERA, 12 IP, 1.42 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.8 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.20 K/BB, 123 ERA+

- I'm sure you're asking, "Wait, I thought the minimum number of innings pitched is 40?" It is, but Billingsley gets a write-up because of his and the Dodgers' stubborness. Billingsley was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in late-August 2012 and instead of undergoing Tommy John surgery, he and the Dodgers decided to try to rehab through it. Well, that didn't work and cost Billingsley all but two games of the 2013 season and likely at least half of the 2014 season. I'm one of Billingsley's biggest fans, but this was clearly the wrong call (and many said the same whent he decision was made).

Grade: F 

The rest

Ted Lilly, Grade: F

Matt Magill, Grade: D-

Edinson Volquez, Grade: C

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Masahiro Tanaka scouting profile: He's good, and the Dodgers could use him

Masahiro Tanaka is the best free agent pitcher available (even if he isn't, yet) this winter, and the Dodgers need to sign him.

I know, how can a team with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu need to sign another starting pitcher with a No. 2 ceiling? Well, come playoff time, the Dodgers would be able to rely on him to throw, unlike what they did this year with Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco is a solid pitcher, but Tanaka -- despite not having thrown a pitch in the majors -- is a superior pitcher.

Tanaka, 25, isn’t the next Yu Darvish. Darvish is an unquestioned ace and worth every penny the Texas Rangers paid for him. In hindsight, it was a really good deal. Tanaka is a younger, better version of Hiroki Kuroda. That isn’t a straight race-based comparison. Tanaka is a little smaller than Kuroda, but their deliveries and arsenals are similar -- well, at least their first four pitches. If you want a non-Japanese comparison, a guy like Dan Haren, Anibal Sanchez or Johnny Cueto might suffice. Haren is particularly apt because, like Tanaka, he relies on a split-fingered fastball as one of his out pitches. But if you want a better physical comp, Sanchez or Cueto is the correct choice.

Tanaka isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher. He struck out 8.5 batters per nine innings in his 1,315 innings in Japan. That’s good, but not Darvish- or Hideo Nomo-esque.

His repertoire is insanely diverse, as he sports a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, splitter, cut fastball, slider, curveball and changeup.

Editor's note: A lot of this information is gathered from scouting reports, video and this great write-up on Tanaka.

Tanaka’s four-seamer is a 90-93 MPH offering that touches 95 MPH on occasion. Not elite velocity, but good enough to be a successful major leaguer. He’ll need to throw inside -- with pinpoint control -- to keep hitters from diving out over the plate and sitting on his off-speed pitches.

His two-seamer is a pitch that Tanaka throws against both lefties and righties. At 88-90 MPH, it can bore inside to righties and has some arm-side action against left-handers. And he has a tendency to throw the pitch up in the zone, which won’t fly in the bigs.

He has two legitimate out pitches in his slider and splitter. His slider is a true weapon against right-handers, as it’s a pitch he snaps off, which generates plenty of swings-and-misses. Like any pitcher who throws a good slider, he can rely on it too much, and that leads to hanging sliders. It’s a low-80s offering that is a plus pitch.

Tanaka’s splitter is his bread and butter pitch. It’s the pitch that will separate him from many pitchers in the majors. He throws it in the mid-80s and gets a lot of awkward swings on the pitch. When he comes over, this pitch should make him a dynamic starter.

If those four pitches weren’t enough, he also throws two more off-speed pitches in a curveball and changeup. While he didn’t use either often (and he won’t in the major leagues), it’s nice to know the pitches are there. His changeup is just a slower variation of his splitter, so he could probably scrap that pitch with relative ease.

While he has the repertoire, Tanaka’s frame is a little concerning (only a little). He’s listed at 6’2, 200 pounds, but that’s a little generous. He’s probably closer to 6’0 or 6’1, which -- believe it or not -- makes a difference. Tanaka relies on drop-and-drive mechanics due to his center of gravity. It’s a high-effort delivery that allows him to generate the velocity needed to be successful.

Higher effort leads to more risk of injury. Injury is a risk for any baseball player, but it seems to be more pronounced with pitchers. So many things have to go right for a pitcher to remain healthy. Tanaka has been relatively healthy in his Japanese career, despite his less-than-perfect delivery and heavy workload.

Heavy workloads aren’t uncommon in Japan. Tanaka routinely pitched more than seven innings. In 28 games this season (27 starts), he threw 212 innings. It takes Major League pitchers 30-plus starts to even get to 200 innings. The game is different in Japan compared to how it’s played in MLB, but Tanaka was the definition of a workhorse. At 22 years old in 2011, he started 27 games and completed 14 of them. He averaged 8.4 innings per start.

In the final two games of the Japan Series, Tanaka took the ball. In Game 6, he threw 160 pitches in a loss. The next day, he threw 16 pitches in relief, picked up the save and clinched the series for the Rakuten Eagles. A quarter-century ago, that wouldn’t have been such shocking news. Now, with the way the game is managed in the states, it’s unheard of. It’s prompted some to wonder about Tanaka’s long-term health and potential effectiveness.

Despite that, I’m all-in on Tanaka. If the Dodgers don’t come away with the righty, they’ll almost be forced to pull the trigger on a David Price trade. If it comes to that, the Tampa Bay Rays just might get three or four of the Dodgers’ top prospects (in a top-heavy system) for Price’s services.

Price is great and established, but the Dodgers can’t afford to give up that much for him. That puts extra pressure on the team to do whatever it can to land Tanaka.

The posting system has expired and is subject to change. There’s a delay and there’s no word about when the system will be reinstated. If it is, there are likely to be changes.

Before, teams submitted blind posting fees for posted players. The highest bid would win exclusive one-month negotiating rights with the player. If the player did not sign, he would be pulled back and possibly reposted the next season. The posting fee is generally more than the salary the player ended up getting. Now, MLB wants to allow the player to earn more money, with less money going to the posting team. The new system would also allow the player to choose from three teams, and the player doesn’t necessarily have to choose the team that bid the most. The terms aren’t fully agreed upon, hence the delay.

Landing Tanaka should top the Dodgers’ offseason shopping list. Well, after they sign Kershaw to the richest contract for a pitcher in MLB history. Somehow, that still hasn’t happened. Soon… hopefully.

Photo credit: Neier, Wikimedia Commons

Solid group of Dodgers' free agents led by Howell, Uribe and Wilson

When the Dodgers' season ended, the thought was the team wouldn't need a bunch of changes or other acquisitions. While the managerial situation is still officially unresolved, Don Mattingly is said to be back as the Dodgers' manager for 2014 (and hopefully beyond).

But the Dodgers have 12 free agents and some decisions to make on those guys, other free agents, international players and potential trade acquisitions.

Dodger free agents
Chris Capuano (option declined)
Mark Ellis (option declined)
Jerry Hairston
J.P. Howell
Carlos Marmol
Ricky Nolasco
Nick Punto
Skip Schumaker
Juan Uribe
Edinson Volquez
Brian Wilson
Michael Young

Both Capuano and Ellis had their options declined, and they were subsequently bought out ($1 million each). There's no reason to bring back guys like Hairston, Marmol, Schumaker and Volquez. I'd throw Young in there, but we all know how the Dodgers like their veteran players. Personally, I don't want him back.

So, that leaves Howell, Nolasco, Punto, Uribe and Wilson.

Howell
The left-hander had an excellent season out of the Dodger bullpen. He posted career-bests in ERA (2.18), fielding independent pitching (2.89), ground ball percentage (57.2) and home runs per nine innings pitched (0.3). Better yet, he was dominant against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .164 batting average against and a .452 OPS, fifth-best lefty vs. lefty mark in baseball. Howell is also durable (62 IP, 67 appearances) and can get right-handers out (.222/.312/.296). With Scott Elbert out until midseason, the Dodgers will need Howell to take pressure off Paco Rodriguez, who was bad for the last six weeks of the season. In my eyes, he's a must-re-sign player (at a reasonable cost, of course).
Verdict: Re-sign -- 2 years, $7 million

Nolasco
I was originally against a Nolasco acquisition, but the Dodgers paid pennies to get him, and it was pretty good, until the last few starts of the season. Nolasco posted a solid 3.52 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts) as a Dodger. But he faltered late and didn't fare well in Game 4 of the NLCS -- his only postseason appearance. The Twins are reportedly interested in his services and will probably get a healthy deal on the open market. The Dodgers can do better on the open market.
Verdict: Don't re-sign

Punto
At one time this season, Punto was third among Dodger position players in WAR. That isn't a typo. As the season wore on, his effectiveness wore down. He finished the season as nearly a 2-win player. I wouldn't expect that kind of production in 2014 (or beyond), but his ability to play a decent shortstop (as well as second- and third base) make him valuable, even if he gets picked off second base in huge postseason situations.
Verdict: Re-sign -- 1 year, $1.5 million

Uribe
If there was ever an example of a redemption story, it's Uribe, or "Uribear," as he was known for most of the 2013 season. While he was one of the worst Dodgers in his first two seasons in Blue, he was a 5-win player in 2013. His 5.1 WAR was seventh-best of any third baseman in baseball (right behind Adrian Beltre's 5.2 and well ahead of future Dodger Chase Headley's 3.6). He hit .278.331/.438 with 12 home runs, but his defense was Gold Glove-caliber (even if he was beaten out by Nolan Arenado) and among the league's best (and the best, in other categories). With the third base market (free agent and trade) wafer-thin, bringing back Uribe is a must. A 2-year deal wouldn't be bad, as long as he has a platoonmate.
Verdict: Re-sign -- 2 years, $10 million

Wilson
Some questioned whether the Dodgers did the right thing by signing Wilson at the end of July. Well, Wilson made everyone believers again with a great -- albeit abbreviate -- 2013 campaign and a solid postseason showing. He became the Dodgers' setup man and thrived. It's a no-brainer to want to bring him back, but it's another question as to whether he wants to stay. If he wants to be part of a great team, doesn't care about closing and wants to form one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, sure. If he wants to be "the guy" elsewhere, you couldn't blame him. No 3-year deals here, but I'd give him a couple years at a decent price.
Verdict: Re-sign -- 2 years, $11 million (if he wants to stay)

Photo credits

Howell: Keith Allison, Wikimedia Commons

Nolasco: Not that Bob James, Flickr

Uribe: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

2013 NLCS by the numbers: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

2013 National League Championship Series

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Oct. 11-19

Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis (Games 1-2, 6-7 if necessary); Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles (Games 3-5 if necessary)

2013 record vs. Cardinals: 4-3

Last postseason meeting: 2009, Dodgers won 3-0

*- Denotes not on NLCS roster

Game 1: Zack Greinke vs. Joe Kelly

Greinke career vs. Cardinals: 8-3, 3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.5 K/9

Kelly career vs. Dodgers: 1-1, 3.72 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.7 K/9

NLDS numbers

Greinke: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Kelly: 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

Cardinals hitters vs. Greinke

Matt Holliday: 9-for-26 (.346), 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Yadier Molina: 7-for-22 (.318), 2 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Jon Jay: 6-for-22 (.273), 1 BB, 2 K
David Freese: 6-for-18 (.333), 1 HR, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Daniel Descalso: 2-for-11 (.182), 1 2B, 2 K
Matt Carpenter: 3-for-7 (.429), 1 2B, 1 K
Carlos Beltran: 1-for-7 (.143), 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Tony Cruz: 1-for-3
Adam Wainwright: 0-for-3, 1 SH, 2 K
Adron Chambers: 1-for-2, 1 BB, 1 K

- Holliday is always a dangerous hitter while it's probably best to throw out regular season numbers when talking about Beltran and his Babe Ruthian performance in October.

Dodgers hitters vs. Kelly

Andre Ethier: 2-for-8 (.250), 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 K
A.J. Ellis: 1-for-8 (.125), 4 K
Adrian Gonzalez: 4-for-7 (.571), 1 HR, 1 2B
Hanley Ramirez: 2-for-7 (.286), 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Mark Ellis: 0-for-7
Nick Punto: 4-for-5 (.800), 1 2B, 1 BB
Carl Crawford: 2-for-3, 1 2B
Yasiel Puig: 1-for-2, 1 BB
Dee Gordon: 1-for-2, 1 K
Clayton Kershaw: 0-for-2, 1 K
Juan Uribe: 0-for-2
Chris Capuano*: 0-for-1
Scott Van Slyke: 0-for-1

- Gonzalez is the butter and egg man here, with Ethier chipping in a home run. Kelly has struck out 10 Dodgers in his career -- four times it's been A.J. Ellis taking the fall.

Game 2: Clayton Kershaw vs. Michael Wacha

Kershaw career vs. Cardinals: 4-5, 3.75 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.2 K/9

Wacha career vs. Dodgers: Never faced

NLDS numbers

Kershaw: 13 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 13 K
Wacha: 7 1/3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K

Cardinals hitters vs. Kershaw

Holliday: 9-for-30 (.300), 1 2B, 10 BB, 7 K
Beltran: 5-for-22 (.227), 2 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Molina: 5-for-19 (.263), 2 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
Freese: 3-for-15 (.200), 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Carpenter: 2-for-12 (.167), 2 K
Jay: 1-for-6 (.167), 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Pete Kozma: 4-for-5 (.800), 3 2B
Wainwright: 2-for-4 (.500), 1 2B, 1 SH 2 BB, 1 K
Descalso: 2-for-4 (.500), 2 BB
Cruz: 1-for-3
Shane Robinson: 1-for-3
Kelly: 0-for-2
Shelby Miller: 0-for-2, 1 K

- Holliday has a positive K:BB rate and, of course, Kozma has hit him the best because baseball.

Dodgers hitters vs. Wacha

Never faced

- All you need to know is Wacha has almost thrown two no-hitters in the last month. He's damn good.

Game 3: Adam Wainwright vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Wainwright career vs. Dodgers: 4-4, 3.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.2 K/9

Ryu career vs. Cardinals: 1-0, 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

NLDS numbers

Wainwright: 16 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 15 K
Ryu: 3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Dodgers hitters vs. Wainwright

Ethier: 9-for-30 (.300), 2 HR, 3 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Ramirez: 5-for-24 (.208), 3 BB, 5 K
Gonzalez: 4-for-16 (.250), 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
Mark Ellis: 1-for-12 (.083), 2 K
Uribe: 3-for-11 (.273), 2 K
Crawford: 2-for-7 (.286), 1 K
Kershaw: 0-for-5, 1 SH, 1 K
A.J. Ellis: 0-for-5, 1 K
Greinke: 1-for-4, 1 SH, 2 K
Puig: 1-for-3, 2 K
Michael Young: 0-for-3
Punto: 1-for-2, 1 2B, 1 BB
Ricky Nolasco: 0-for-1

- If Ethier is good to go, it'll be an nice boost. Not a whole lot of success otherwise.

Cardinals hitters vs. Ryu

Freese: 2-for-3, 1 K
Holliday: 2-for-3
Carpenter: 1-for-3, 1 K
Beltran: 0-for-3
Jay: 0-for-3
Kozma: 0-for-2, 1 K
Seth Maness: 0-for-1, 1 K
Carlos Martinez: 0-for-1, 1 K

- Ryu gave up one unearned run in seven innings, so it's easy to see why there hasn't been a lot of success by the Cardinals against the southpaw.

Game 3: Lance Lynn vs. Ricky Nolasco

Lynn career vs. Dodgers: 2-0, 2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.5 K/9

Nolasco career vs. Cardinals: 3-4, 3.84 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.3 K/9

NLDS numbers

Lynn: 4 1/3 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 HR, 3 BB, 6 K
Nolasco: Did not pitch

Dodgers hitters vs. Lynn

Mark Ellis: 2-for-9 (.222), 3 K
A.J. Ellis: 1-for-7 (.143), 4 K
Ethier: 1-for-6 (.167), 2 BB
Young: 0-for-5, 1 BB, 4 K
Gordon: 0-for-5, 1 K
Gonzalez: 1-for-4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ramirez: 0-for-3, 2 K
Uribe: 1-for-2, 1 2B, 1 BB
Punto: 0-for-2, 1 K

- Lynn has been downright dominant against the Dodgers in his two career appearances.

Cardinals hitters vs. Ryu

Beltran: 16-for-47 (.340), 1 HR, 6 BB, 11 K
Holliday: 12-for-26 (.462), 2 HR, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
Jay: 7-for-13 (.538), 1 2B, 1 K
Desclaso: 4-for-13 (.308), 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Freese: 6-for-12 (.500), 1 2B, 3 K
Molina: 3-for-11, 1 K
Cruz: 0-for-10, 2 K
Carpenter: 1-for-5, 1 K
Matt Adams: 0-for-5, 3 K
Wainwright: 0-for-2, 1 SH, 1 K

- Yikes, the Cards absolutely destroy Nolasco, though, his career numbers against them aren't that terrible.

-----
This is going to be a long series, and the pitching options could change as the series progresses. These teams are evenly matched, with the Dodgers having the advantage of setting up their pitchers the way they want.

The offense is going to have to continue what it has done in the postseason thus far.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Andre Ethier's impending return could be big boost for Dodgers in NLCS

The Dodgers showed some surprisingly good offensive output against the National League’s best pitching staff in the first round of the playoffs. The team could get even stronger with the return of Andre Ethier.

Ethier, who’s suffering from an ankle sprain, made three pinch-hit appearances in the National League Division Series. He went 0-for-3 with a walk (that came against Craig Kimbrel in Game 2).

Skip Schumaker filled in well enough defensively, but didn’t hit much in the NLDS -- as expected.

With Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez and Juan Uribe effectively carrying the offense, Ethier’s addition to that quintet almost seems unfair -- but the Dodgers are going to need him against a tough St. Louis Cardinals’ rotation.

All accounts say Ethier is progressing from the injury and could be in the starting lineup on Friday. The biggest concern is making sure he’s as close to 100 percent as possible, because Ethier hits well against the Cardinals for his career.

Ethier career vs. Cardinals

Home: 29 G, .351/.415/.559, 3 HR, 12 2B, 10 BB

Away: 27 G, .231/.320/.380, 1 HR, 9 2B, 14 BB
Total: 56 G, .292/.367/.470, 4 HR, 21 2B, 24 BB

Against current Cardinal pitchers, he’s hitting .250/.333/.563 with seven home runs.

To add his bat to the already hot offense the Dodgers boast could be the difference in the series. Ethier’s return to the starting lineup puts Schumaker on the bench and likely means the end of Dee Gordon’s playoff utility. The Dodgers will almost certainly add another pitcher for the National League Championship Series, and Gordon will be the roster casualty. It’s not clear who gets the nod, but my money is on Edinson Volquez.

With Hyun-Jin Ryu having a shaky outing in Game 3 of the NLDS and Ricky Nolasco having not thrown in a professional game since Sept. 29, the Dodgers might need another pitcher capable of throwing multiple innings. If not Volquez, it could be Carlos Marmol or Stephen Fife (both extremely unlikely).

But Ethier coming back is only a good thing for the Dodgers. The Cardinals have an all-righty rotation, so Ethier -- in close games -- will get at least two at-bats against per game against them. The Cards have old friend Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist to come out of the bullpen who have lots of career success against Ethier (combined: 1-for-12, 3 K).

At worst, I’d say Ethier is back in center field for Game 3 at Dodger Stadium. If so, then that will be a huge boost against Adam Wainwright, whom Ethier hits well (36 PA, .303/.361/.667, 3 HR, 3 2B, 3 BB). I'd either bat him second or fifth in the lineup, with Yasiel Puig occupying the other spot.

Everything is setting up quite well for the Dodgers. If Ethier comes back and is effective, it’s hard to see the Dodgers losing this series.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin’ Kinda Blue

Stick to the plan: Dodgers should start Nolasco in Game 4 of the NLDS

Following the Dodgers' 13-6 Game 3 victory, the fellas on "Dodger Talk," were debating whether they'd throw Clayton Kershaw in Game 4 of the National League Division Series. After listening to their reasoning and thinking it over myself... I'm still not 100 percent convinced with my answer.

Gun to my head: I'm going with Ricky Nolasco.

Kershaw threw 124 pitches on Thursday night in a masterful performance in which he didn't have his best stuff for the first half of it. He struck out 12 batters and got stronger as the game went on. He'd be throwing on three days rest -- something he's never done in his professional career.

The closest he's gotten to three days rest is the standard four days rest.

Kershaw on four days rest
2.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.05 B/BB

If Kershaw throws on Monday, he won't be available until Game 2 of the National League Championship Series (if the Dodgers make it). That's no slight to Zack Greinke, but Kershaw is the best.

I'm sure Kershaw would be more effective than a Nolasco -- the scheduled Game 4 starter -- pitching on more than full rest, but it also takes him out of the equation for a possible Game 5 in Atlanta. That's huge.

Kershaw is the game's best pitcher, but before three bad starts to end the season, Nolasco was fantastic for the Dodgers. In his first 12 starts, Nolasco posted a 2.07 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, a .213 batting average against and a 7.5 K/9.

Nolasco has poor career numbers against the Braves (6-10, 5.11 ERA) and would be making his first playoff start. But with the Dodgers' offensive outburst in Game 3 and home field advantage.

Nolasco's Dodger Stadium starts (2013)
4-2 W-L (yay wins!)
2.55 ERA
1.13 WHIP
7.6 H/9
0.3 HR/9
2.5 BB/9
7.4 K/9
2.90 K/BB

But the biggest reason the Dodgers shouldn't start Kershaw in Game 4 is the fact the Braves are starting Freddy Garcia. Despite good career numbers against the Dodgers and good numbers in the postseason, Garcia, who turned 37 on Sunday, isn't the pitcher he once was. He threw 27 1/3 good innings for the Braves after coming over from the Orioles, but there's no telling how he'll pitch in an elimination game.

I have more faith in the Dodgers' offense doing something against Garcia than Nolasco pitching well, but I also think there's a good chance Nolasco will have a solid game. If his curveball is there, he's going to be fine.

And if the Dodgers absolutely need Kershaw, an inning or two out of the bullpen probably wouldn't be out of the question. That could still put him in line to start Game 1 of the NLCS. But that would only be under an extreme situation.

Final analysis: Start Nolasco, save Kershaw for Game 5 (or Game 1 of the NLCS).

Photo credits

Nolasco: Not that Bob James, Flickr

Kershaw: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

2013 NLDS by the numbers: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

2013 National League Division Series

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

Oct. 3-9

Location: Turner Field, Atlanta (Games 1-2, 5 if necessary); Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles (Game 3, 4 if necessary)

2013 record vs. Braves: 2-5

Last postseason meeting: 1996, Braves won 3-0

*- Denotes not on NLDS roster

Game 1: Clayton Kershaw vs. Kris Medlen

Kershaw career vs. Braves: 0-0, 2.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 10.7 K/9

Medlen career vs. Dodgers: 3-0, 1.23 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 7.7 K/9

Postseason numbers

Kershaw career in postseason: 0-1, 5.87 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.5 K/9

Medlen career in postseason: 0-1, 2.84 ERA, 0.47 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Braves hitters vs. Kershaw

Justin Upton: 3-for-29 (.103), 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 9 K

Chris Johnson: 1-for-12 (.083), 1 BB, 4 K

Dan Uggla*: 1-for-12 (.083), 1 BB, 6 K

Paul Janish: 2-for-11 (.182), 1 BB

Jason Heyward: 0-for-4, 4 K

Jose Constanza: 1-for-3, 1 RBI

Reed Johnson: 1-for-3

Jordan Schafer: 0-for-3, 3 K

Freddie Freeman: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 BB

Gerald Laird: 1-for-2

Paul Maholm*: 0-for-2, 2 K

- Uggla and Maholm aren’t on the roster. Freeman has the most success, but it has come in four plate appearances. Upton got the bulk of his at-bats when he was with the Diamondbacks. Kershaw did not face the Braves in the 2013 regular season.

Dodgers hitters vs. Medlen

Andre Ethier: 4-for-12 (.333), 2 2B, 3 K

Michael Young: 1-for-10 (.100), 2 BB, 3 K

Matt Kemp*: 1-for-10, 1 2B, 5 K

Hanley Ramirez: 5-for-9 (.556), 1 HR, 2 K

Skip Schumaker: 4-for-9 (.444), 1 2B

Nick Punto: 1-for-8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K

Juan Uribe: 0-for-6, 1 BB, 2 K

Tim Federowicz: 2-for-6 (.333), 2 K

Adrian Gonzalez: 0-for-5, 3 BB, 1 K

Yasiel Puig: 1-for-3, 1 K

Drew Butera*: 0-for-3

Carl Crawford: 0-for-3

Jerry Hairston*: 0-for-3

Scott Van Slyke: 0-for-3, 1 K

Zack Greinke: 0-for-2, 1 SH, 1 K

Ricky Nolasco: 1-for-1, 1 SH

A.J. Ellis: 1-for-1

Dee Gordon: 0-for-1, 1 BB, 1 K

Chris Capuano: 0-for-0, 2 SH

- Ethier’s been pretty good, but he likely won’t face Medlen in this series. Schumaker, his replacement will and has fared well in a limited sample size. Ramirez has the most success of any Dodger. Overall, the Dodgers haven’t experienced a lot of success against Medlen.

Game 2: Zack Greinke vs. Mike Minor

Greinke career vs. Braves: 1-1, 3.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

Minor career vs. Dodgers: 1-1, 2.32 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.5 K/9

Postseason numbers

Greinke career in postseason: No appearances

Minor career in postseason: 0-1, 2.84 ERA, 0.47 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Braves hitters vs. Greinke

B.J. Upton: 4-for-23 (.174), 2 2B, 3 BB, 11 K

Laird: 6-for-20 (.300), 1 2B, 3 K

Justin Upton: 5-for-11 (.455), 1 HR, 1 2B, 4 BB, 4 K

Schafer: 5-for-11 (.455), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 K

Uggla: 3-for-9 (.333), 1 2B, 3 K

Heyward: 2-for-8 (.250), 3 K

Brian McCann: 2-for-6 (.333), 1 HR, 1 K

Elliot Johnson: 2-for-3, 1 2B, 1 K

Freeman: 1-for-5 (.200), 3 K

Johnson: 1-for-5 (.200), 4 K

Janish: 0-for-3, 1 K

Andrelton Simmons: 0-for-3

Maholm: 0-for-2, 2 K

Medlen: 0-for-2, 1 K

- I’d be shocked if B.J. Upton started in this game. Fortunately for him, Schafer, his backup, has good numbers against Greinke.

Dodgers hitters vs. Minor

Mark Ellis: 3-for-12 (.250), 1 K

Kemp: 2-for-11 (.182), 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K

A.J. Ellis: 4-for-10 (.400), 1 HR, 1 K

Ramirez: 2-for-8, 1 HR, 2 BB

Ethier: 0-for-6, 2 K

Gonzalez: 3-for-5 (.600), 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K

Uribe: 0-for-5, 3 K

Van Slyke: 0-for-5, 2 K

Punto: 1-for-4, 1 BB, 1 K

Puig: 1-for-3

Ricky Nolasco: 0-for-3, 1 SH, 1 BB, 3 K

Federowicz: 0-for-3, 1 K

Crawford: 1-for-2, 1 2B, 1 BB

Schumaker: 1-for-2, 1 BB, 1 K

Hairston: 1-for-2

Ronald Belisario: 0-for-1

- Some promising numbers from the Dodgers here, including homers by Ellis, Gonzalez and Ramirez.

Game 3: Julio Teheran vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu

Teheran career vs. Dodgers: Never faced

Ryu career vs. Braves: 1-1, 3.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

Postseason numbers

Teheran career in postseason: No appearances

Ryu career in postseason: No appearances

Dodgers hitters vs. Teheran

Young: 0-for-3, 1 K

Capuano: 0-for-2, 1 K

- Two players, one of which is a pitcher. That’s it.

Braves hitters vs. Ryu

Heyward: 1-for-7 (.143), 1 2B, 3 K

Simmons: 2-for-7 (.286), 1 K

Justin Upton: 1-for-6 (.167), 1 BB, 1 K

Johnson: 1-for-6 (.167), 1 K

Maholm: 1-for-5 (.200), 3 K

B.J. Upton: 1-for-5 (.200)

Freeman: 3-for-4 (.750), 1 2B, 2 BB

Uggla: 1-for-4, 2 BB, 2 K

Evan Gattis: 0-for-3

McCann: 0-for-2, 1 BB

- Ryu faced the Braves twice this season, so there isn’t much data to go on here. Just be careful with Freeman.

Game 4: Freddy Garcia vs. Ricky Nolasco

Garcia career vs. Dodgers: 1-1, 2.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.4 K/9

Nolasco career vs. Braves: 6-10, 5.11 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 7.3 K/9

Postseason numbers

Garcia career in postseason: 6-3, 3.28 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.6 K/9

Nolasco career in postseason: No appearances

Dodgers hitters vs. Garcia

Young: 12-for-44 (.273), 2 2B, 6 K

Crawford: 7-for-26 (.269), 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 2 K

Punto: 5-for-25 (.200), 5 K

Hairston: 1-for-20 (.050), 1 K

Mark Ellis: 4-for-16 (.250), 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K

Gonzalez: 4-for-16, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 2 K

Uribe: 1-for-8 (.125), 1 2B, 2 K

Ramirez: 3-for-8 (.375), 1 HR, 1 2B, 3 K

- Despite the most experience, Young has a pedestrian line against Garcia. And good thing Hairston isn’t a key piece for the Dodgers, as that .050 average is ugly.

Braves hitters vs. Nolasco

McCann: 20-for-58 (.345), 8 HR, 4 2B, 2 BB, 9 K

Freeman: 6-for-25 (.240), 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 BB, 5 K

Heyward: 8-for-23 (.348), 1 HR, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 2 K

Uggla: 5-for-19 (.263), 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K

B.J. Upton: 3-for-16 (.188), 1 BB, 6 K

Justin Upton: 3-for-14 (.214), 2 BB, 4 K

Chris Johnson: 4-for-12 (.333), 4 K

Janish: 2-for-12 (.167), 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K

Schafer: 2-for-7 (.286), 1 3B, 1 BB

Constanza: 2-for-7 (.286), 1 2B, 1 K

Maholm: 1-for-4, 1 K

Simmons: 1-for-3

Minor: 0-for-3, 1 SH, 2 K

Medlen: 0-for-2, 2 K

Reed Johnson: 1-for-1, 1 HR

- No surprise, the Braves’ three best lefties have lots of success against Nolasco. McCann saw him a lot while Nolasco was with the Marlins.

Game 5 will likely be a rematch of Game 1, potentially with different lineups. But, if necessary, it will be in Atlanta.

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This is going to be a tough series. The Braves didn’t win 96 games by accident and the Dodgers weren’t the best team in baseball for the three months entirely because of luck. This has the makings of a 5-game series.

Without Kemp and a healthy Ethier, the Dodgers need someone to pick up the slack. I’ve pegged Crawford to do just that. The Braves have a tremendous bullpen, which the Dodgers have a tremendous closer.

Whatever happens, it should be a fun series to watch.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

My 2013 Dodgers' postseason roster: No Andre Ethier because he can't run

Many folks have already predicted their Dodgers' postseason roster, so my being lazy -- I mean, waiting until this week -- may have played in my favor.

Matt Kemp is out for the playoffs, which sucks. Andre Ethier looks like he'll be limited to pinch-hitting duties in the National League Division Series, if he's even on the roster. At least the pitching appears to be healthy. However, Don Mattingly is playing coy with his potential No. 4 starter.

A few weeks ago, it would have been blasphemous to consider Edinson Volquez to start ahead of Ricky Nolasco in the playoffs, but it seems Mattingly is at least contemplating the headache-inducing idea.

Let's start with what we know, which is a lot.

Catchers (2)
A.J. Ellis
Tim Federowicz
- No surprises here.

Infielders (6)
Mark Ellis
Adrian Gonzalez
Nick Punto
Hanley Ramirez
Juan Uribe
Michael Young
- Again, no surprises in this group.

Outfielders (4)
Carl Crawford
Yasiel Puig
Skip Schumaker
Scott Van Slyke
- The only surprises are Ethier and Kemp not making the roster due to injury.

Starters (5)
Zack Greinke
Clayton Kershaw
Ricky Nolasco
Hyun-jin Ryu
Edinson Volquez
- There's no way the Dodgers use five starters, but with the uncertainty surrounding Nolasco v. Volquez, they'll carry five of them.

Relievers (7)
Ronald Belisario
Chris Capuano
J.P. Howell
Kenley Jansen
Paco Rodriguez
Brian Wilson
Chris Withrow
- That's a healthy looking bullpen, especially with three lefties and three power righties. Also, Capuano can pitch multiple innings, if needed.

That's 24 players. It seems the Dodgers could use another outfielder -- preferably one who can play center field. With Ethier being limited to pinch-hitting duties, there's a real possibility he won't make the NLDS roster. If he were to pinch-hit late in a game, the Braves' manager Fredi Gonzalez would counter with a left-handed reliever in the form of Luis Avilan, Scott Downs or Alex Wood (assuming Wood won't be in the rotation). Much like Dee Gordon and his speed, Ethier shouldn't make the first-round roster for his bat -- a bat that's almost worthless against lefties. Don't get me wrong: I want Ethier to make it, but his bat would be virtually neutralized against lefties. He'd be better of getting healthy for the NLCS (and beyond) rather than risk aggravating his injury and the Dodgers being down yet another outfielder.

As unlikely as it seems, perhaps Jerry Hairston and his versatility wins the final spot on the initial playoff roster. If that's the case, the Dodgers would have Federowicz, Hariston, Punto, Van Slyke and Young on the bench against righties. Against lefties, it's safe to assume Van Slyke would start for Schumaker (with Puig moving to center field). Not exactly the '27 Yankees, but maybe not as bad as it looks.

Hairston, reluctantly, gets the final spot from me in the NLDS.

My ideal lineup vs. RHP
Crawford LF
Puig RF
Ramirez SS
Gonzalez 1B
Uribe 3B
Ellis C
Schumaker CF
Ellis 2B

My ideal lineup vs. LHP
Crawford LF
Puig CF
Ramirez SS
Gonzalez 1B
Uribe 3B
Van Slyke RF
Ellis C
Ellis 2B

The bottom-third of each lineup looks less-than imposing, but if the Dodgers advance to the National League Championship Series, perhaps Ethier will be good to go, which will give the team a boost (and likely boot Hairston or Capuano from the roster).

Can it be Thursday already?

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 57 - Dodgers clinch, pool, Ryu, Nolasco

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (Dodger Diamond) and I chat about the Dodgers clinching the National League West title for the first time since 2009, and the resulting celebration in the sacred Diamondbacks' swimming pool.

Then we delve into a discussion about some Dodgers who may or may not have peed in said pool. It's not classy, but who among you can say you've never peed in a pool?

After far too much talk about urine, we actually get around to talking baseball.

We talk about the ideal opponenets for the Dodgers' on their path to the World Series. As of now, it looks like they're going to play the Braves or the Cardinals. I'll take Atlanta.

Hyun-Jin Ryu pretty much clinched the No. 3 spot in the Dodgers' postseason rotation, and not just because Ricky Nolasco has been bad in his last four starts.

Jared has a review of Rookie Ball, with guys like Victor Gonzalez and Jacob Scavuzzo getting ample mention.

Episode dedications
Jared: Stu Pederson
Dustin: Luke Prokopec

Then, we close with Q&A, which consisted of mostly urine and playoffs.

Libsyn link
Direct link
iTunes link

Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@Dodger_Diamond or @FeelinKindaBlue). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Dodgers clinch NL West title with 7-6 victory, plus 'Zona reaction to 'Poolgate'

It wasn't pretty, but the Dodgers clinched their first National League West title for the first time since 2009 with a 7-6 win in Arizona on Thursday.

The Dodgers didn't start Adrian Gonzalez because of a lingering quad problem. No worries because Hanley Ramirez picked up the slack by going 4-for-5 with two home runs and four RBI. A.J. Ellis put the Dodgers ahead with a first-pitch home run in the top of the eighth. He finished with three hits.

Ricky Nolasco, coming off his worst start as a Dodger, was bad on Thursday, allowing six runs (all in the third inning) in five innings pitched.

The Dodgers were able to overcome a 6-3 deficit in the middle- and late-innings.

Now that the Dodgers have officially clinched a playoff berth, expect a lot of Jim Tracy Sunday Special lineups for the remainder of the season. Guys like Ramirez, Gonzalez and Carl Crawford should get ample rest in preparation for October.

The Dodgers will also be able to line up their rotation whatever way they see fit. It'll be Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 on Oct. 3 and Zack Greinke Oct. 4. Before Nolasco's last two starts, he looked to have the inside track on the No. 3 spot. Now, it looks like it could be Hyun-Jin Ryu's spot to lose.

-----

Now onto the "fun" stuff.

The Diamondbacks had asked the Dodgers not to celebrate on the field until after the fans left the stadium. Well, the Dodgers adhered to that request. Instead, Skip Schumaker and Nick Punto led a group of Dodgers to the (ridiculous) swimming pool in right-center field.

This pissed off almost any and everyone associated with the Diamondbacks (fans, media, players, executives, etc.).

Bloomquist on #Dodgers pool celebration: "They have a lot of veteran players on their team. I thought they had more class than that."
— Tyler Emerick (@TylerEmerick) September 19, 2013

This game knows no names. What goes around comes around. #FinishStrong
— Adam Eaton (@AdamSpankyEaton) September 20, 2013

And this from the Arizona Republic.

"Congratulations are in order. Even to a bunch as classless as the Los Angeles Dodgers, the first players not wearing Diamondbacks uniforms to celebrate a championship by diving into the Chase Field pool."

A nice 5-graf editorial. Keep up the hard-hitting opinion and analysis.

And you want to talk about class? What about this classless act from earlier this year. Check and mate.

You know what prevents other teams from celebrating in your pool, Arizona?

1. Don't let the other team clinch in your park
2. Don't have a SWIMMING POOL at a baseball stadium

That's it.

But thank goodness for Brandon McCarthy. If the Dodgers need a No. 5 starter in 2015, I'd be more than happy if the Dodgers signed him (provided he were still effective).

Celebrating is fun. I don't care how and where you do it. Only thing to care about is what we need to do to celebrate in our pool next year.
— Brandon McCarthy (@BMcCarthy32) September 19, 2013

I'm sure this will spill over into next season, even if guys like Schumaker and Punto aren't with the Dodgers anymore.

Enjoy, Dodger fans. In two weeks, the real fun begins. Eleven wins to go.

Graphic credit: Courtesy of the Los Angeles Dodgers