2013 Los Angeles Dodgers season review: Starting pitchers

A strong starting rotation has long since been the calling card of the Dodgers, and 2013 was no different. A Cy Young award winner, a big-money free agent who paid off and a rookie led this group.

Despite having question marks at the end of the rotation, the Dodgers were still great in this department.

Dodger starting pitchers by the numbers

62-46 W-L

3.13 ERA

1.19 WHIP

8.3 H/9

0.8 HR/9

2.5 BB/9

7.7 K/9

3.07 K/BB

7 CG

Individual performers (minimum 40 IP)

Clayton Kershaw

16-9, 1.83 ERA, 236 IP, 0.91 WHIP, 6.3 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 4.46 K/BB, 194 ERA+

- What can I say about Kershaw that hasn't already been said about the greatest things in life? He's the best pitcher in the galaxy and has another Cy Young award to show for it. Now, about that contract extension...

Grade: A

Zack Greinke

15-4, 2.63 ERA, 177 2/3 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 3.22 K/BB, 135 ERA+

- Despite suffering a broken collar bone, Greinke was better than advertised in his first season with the Dodgers. He's a "No. 1a," not a "No. 2." The next step: making 30-plus starts and logging 200-plus innings.

Grade: A-

Hyun-Jin Ryu

14-8, 3.00 ERA, 192 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 8.5 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 3.14 K/BB, 119 ERA+

- Ryu's debut season went better than anyone could have expected. Ryu established himself as a legitimate No. 3 starter after the Dodgers inked him out of Korea last year. He's going into his age-27 season and should get better.

Grade: B+

Ricky Nolasco (with Dodgers)

8-3, 3.52 ERA, 87 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 3.57 K/BB, 101 ERA+

- Nolasco got off to a great start with the Dodgers before impolding the last three starts. He, at one time, looked like he might challenge Ryu for the team's No. 3 spot in the playoffs. He only appeared in the NLCS, and didn't fare too well. Still, he was well worth the price the Dodgers paid in young players.

Grade: B

Chris Capuano

4-7, 4.26 ERA, 105 2/3 IP, 1.41 WHIP, 10.6 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.0 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 3.38 K/BB, 84 ERA+

- Capuano was all-but-traded in the winter only to remain with the Dodgers for the duration of the 2013 season. He had his ups and downs, but was a somewhat valuable piece for the Dodgers in 2013.

Grade: C-

Stephen Fife

4-4, 3.86 ERA, 58 1/3 IP, 1.53 WHIP, 10.6 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 2.25 K/BB, 93 ERA+

- Fife had asserted himself well, despite suffering the same shoulder injury twice this season. He had a sub-3.00 ERA for a majority of his season before having a rough go at it late. Fife is definitely a nice No. 6 or No. 7 starter for the Dodgers at this point.

Grade: B

Josh Beckett

0-5, 5.19 ERA, 43 1/3 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 1.7 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 2.73 K/BB, 69 ERA+

- Beckett had one good start in Arizona (which he lost). Other than that, he was atrocious and missed most of the season with an injury. He's on the books for 2014, so barring an unforeseen trade or release, he'll be around. Reports say he'll be ready for the start of the season. I'm skeptical about that.

Grade: D-

Chad Billingsley

1-0, 3.00 ERA, 12 IP, 1.42 WHIP, 9.0 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.8 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.20 K/BB, 123 ERA+

- I'm sure you're asking, "Wait, I thought the minimum number of innings pitched is 40?" It is, but Billingsley gets a write-up because of his and the Dodgers' stubborness. Billingsley was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL in late-August 2012 and instead of undergoing Tommy John surgery, he and the Dodgers decided to try to rehab through it. Well, that didn't work and cost Billingsley all but two games of the 2013 season and likely at least half of the 2014 season. I'm one of Billingsley's biggest fans, but this was clearly the wrong call (and many said the same whent he decision was made).

Grade: F 

The rest

Ted Lilly, Grade: F

Matt Magill, Grade: D-

Edinson Volquez, Grade: C

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Solid group of Dodgers' free agents led by Howell, Uribe and Wilson

When the Dodgers' season ended, the thought was the team wouldn't need a bunch of changes or other acquisitions. While the managerial situation is still officially unresolved, Don Mattingly is said to be back as the Dodgers' manager for 2014 (and hopefully beyond).

But the Dodgers have 12 free agents and some decisions to make on those guys, other free agents, international players and potential trade acquisitions.

Dodger free agents
Chris Capuano (option declined)
Mark Ellis (option declined)
Jerry Hairston
J.P. Howell
Carlos Marmol
Ricky Nolasco
Nick Punto
Skip Schumaker
Juan Uribe
Edinson Volquez
Brian Wilson
Michael Young

Both Capuano and Ellis had their options declined, and they were subsequently bought out ($1 million each). There's no reason to bring back guys like Hairston, Marmol, Schumaker and Volquez. I'd throw Young in there, but we all know how the Dodgers like their veteran players. Personally, I don't want him back.

So, that leaves Howell, Nolasco, Punto, Uribe and Wilson.

Howell
The left-hander had an excellent season out of the Dodger bullpen. He posted career-bests in ERA (2.18), fielding independent pitching (2.89), ground ball percentage (57.2) and home runs per nine innings pitched (0.3). Better yet, he was dominant against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .164 batting average against and a .452 OPS, fifth-best lefty vs. lefty mark in baseball. Howell is also durable (62 IP, 67 appearances) and can get right-handers out (.222/.312/.296). With Scott Elbert out until midseason, the Dodgers will need Howell to take pressure off Paco Rodriguez, who was bad for the last six weeks of the season. In my eyes, he's a must-re-sign player (at a reasonable cost, of course).
Verdict: Re-sign -- 2 years, $7 million

Nolasco
I was originally against a Nolasco acquisition, but the Dodgers paid pennies to get him, and it was pretty good, until the last few starts of the season. Nolasco posted a solid 3.52 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts) as a Dodger. But he faltered late and didn't fare well in Game 4 of the NLCS -- his only postseason appearance. The Twins are reportedly interested in his services and will probably get a healthy deal on the open market. The Dodgers can do better on the open market.
Verdict: Don't re-sign

Punto
At one time this season, Punto was third among Dodger position players in WAR. That isn't a typo. As the season wore on, his effectiveness wore down. He finished the season as nearly a 2-win player. I wouldn't expect that kind of production in 2014 (or beyond), but his ability to play a decent shortstop (as well as second- and third base) make him valuable, even if he gets picked off second base in huge postseason situations.
Verdict: Re-sign -- 1 year, $1.5 million

Uribe
If there was ever an example of a redemption story, it's Uribe, or "Uribear," as he was known for most of the 2013 season. While he was one of the worst Dodgers in his first two seasons in Blue, he was a 5-win player in 2013. His 5.1 WAR was seventh-best of any third baseman in baseball (right behind Adrian Beltre's 5.2 and well ahead of future Dodger Chase Headley's 3.6). He hit .278.331/.438 with 12 home runs, but his defense was Gold Glove-caliber (even if he was beaten out by Nolan Arenado) and among the league's best (and the best, in other categories). With the third base market (free agent and trade) wafer-thin, bringing back Uribe is a must. A 2-year deal wouldn't be bad, as long as he has a platoonmate.
Verdict: Re-sign -- 2 years, $10 million

Wilson
Some questioned whether the Dodgers did the right thing by signing Wilson at the end of July. Well, Wilson made everyone believers again with a great -- albeit abbreviate -- 2013 campaign and a solid postseason showing. He became the Dodgers' setup man and thrived. It's a no-brainer to want to bring him back, but it's another question as to whether he wants to stay. If he wants to be part of a great team, doesn't care about closing and wants to form one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, sure. If he wants to be "the guy" elsewhere, you couldn't blame him. No 3-year deals here, but I'd give him a couple years at a decent price.
Verdict: Re-sign -- 2 years, $11 million (if he wants to stay)

Photo credits

Howell: Keith Allison, Wikimedia Commons

Nolasco: Not that Bob James, Flickr

Uribe: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Cardinals struggle against LHP, so Dodgers naturally remove two for NLCS

There's a reason managers do the things they do, but I'm really struggling to figure out what Don Mattingly is thinking with his National League Championship roster.

The offense remains the same and all but two pitchers remain the same. The Dodgers removed Chris Capuano and Paco Rodriguez in favor of Carlos Marmol and Edinson Volquez.

You read that correctly. The Dodgers willing chose to put two right-handed pitchers on the roster, while they removed two lefties.

The Cardinals struggled against left-handed pitching this season to the tune of .238/.301/.371 this season. That's the entire time. Even their right-handed hitters have struggled against lefties.

Capuano likely wouldn't have started a game, but he was still a legitimate option to throw out of the bullpen. He owns 7.90 career ERA at (new) Busch Stadium, but most of that came as a starter and against the Albert Pujols-led Cardinals. Unless there's an undisclosed injury, this move doesn't make any sense.

Removing Rodriguez makes some sense. He was awful in September and wasn't great in the National League Division Series. Still, if he were to find his breaking ball, he'd be hell on the Cardinals' lefties. Instead, the only left-handed reliever guys like Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, Jon Jay and even Carlos Beltran have to worry about is J.P. Howell. Here's hoping he's up to the task. He held lefties to a .164 batting average and a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season, which is great.

I'm not even terribly upset at the pitchers the Dodgers added. Both are volatile, but Volquez in for Capuano is a must because a long-reliever is necessary. Marmol, surprisingly, has solid career numbers against the Cardinals (3.08 ERA in Busch, 2.95 overall).

I hope Mattingly's news conference later today sheds light on his decision. If it's a physical issue for one or both lefties, then it makes sense. If it's almost anything else, well, let's just hope it's a physical thing (which sounds weird to say).

Maybe Mattingly thinks the offense will out-slug the Cardinal offense. I'd be inclined to agree if there were more lefties on the roster. I just hope Mattingly isn't overthinking things.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

How Hyun-Jin Ryu can improve his effectiveness against left-handed hitters

Hyun-Jin Ryu’s start in Game 3 of the National League Division Series wasn’t a complete and total failure, and he was lucky the offense (and Chris Capuano) bailed him out. But a weakness of his was exploited last night.

Ryu, somewhat surprisingly, struggles against left-handed hitters. Here are his platoon splits for his first big league season:

vs. LHP

.270/.322/.416, 5 HR, 2.64 K/BB

vs. RHP

.245/.291/.342, 10 HR, 3.34 K/BB

Ryu thrives because of his plus changeup. The pitch allows him to have better success against right-handed hitters. In the regular season, he threw it 22.3 percent of the time. It was his go-to off-speed offering. In Game 3, he threw it 26.5 percent of the time against a Braves’ lineup that featured tough lefties Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward and Brian McCann. Fortunately for Ryu, those five combined to go 1-for-5 with a walk and RBI. Ryu was actually hurt more by Justin Upton and Evan Gattis during his 3-inning outing. He also only threw two of his 18 changeups to lefties on Sunday.

While his changeup is a plus offering against righties, it could also be a plus offering against lefties, if he’s willing to throw it.

Many years ago, I was watching Tom Glavine pitch, and the broadcasters noted that Glavine started throwing his changeup to left-handed hitters. Glavine has one of the best changeups of all-time, and he didn’t have a particularly great breaking ball. Despite that, he had a Hall of Fame career. Johan Santana, while having a better breaker than Glavine, also thrived by using his changeup.

Ryu’s changeup usage against LHH

Ryu began his career barely throwing changeups to lefties. His slider and -- less often -- his curveball, were weapons against lefties.

Then August rolls around and Ryu gets frisky by throwing his changeup to lefties 14.2 percent of the time for the month. Ryu, coincidentally or not, posted his second-best monthly ERA in August at 2.61 (2.38 in May). Despite giving up more hits (40) than innings pitched (38) that month, he also only walked four hitters the entire month.

Lefties hit .133/.235/.333 with a .091 batting average on balls in play against Ryu’s changeup this season. Granted, it was just 15 at-bats, but perhaps it’d be a bigger weapon against them if he decided to throw it more. For comparison’s sake, lefties hit .337/.385/.505 with an abnormally high .369 BABIP against his fastball. His slider against lefties, which wasn’t great in Game 3, was a .196/.237/.250 offering against lefties.

Ryu got lefties to swing at his changeup 68.1 percent of the time -- by far the most of any pitch he threw against lefties. He also allowed the most foul balls on the pitch (31.9 percent), got the most ground balls (17 percent) and the second-most whiffs, as in swings-and-misses, not strikeouts (12.8 percent).

So, for Ryu to get better against left-handed pitching (and it isn’t like he was terrible against them), perhaps his changeup is the answer. He only threw it to left-handed hitters 5.6 percent of the time in his rookie season.

It's worth a shot, especially if his average slider and below-average curveball aren't working for him.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Dodgers facing some tough, significant postseason roster decisions

With Sept. 1 quickly approaching, the Dodgers will have some difficult roster decisions to make, most of which pertain to the bullpen.

For players to be eligible for the postseason roster, they have to be on the active roster before 9 p.m. on Aug. 31. This also includes players on the disabled list.

Update (Aug. 17, 4 p.m.): I'm dumb sometimes. Thanks to Eric Stephen of True Blue LA for pointing it out. Anyone in the organization by Aug. 31 (let's say, Butera) can replace an injured player come postseason time. So, Butera wouldn't need to be recalled before the end of the month. However, the initial playoff roster has to come from those on the 25-man roster (and disabled list) before the Aug. 31 deadline. Sorry for the confusion.

Brian Wilson is likely going to be promoted to the Major League roster on Friday, meaning the Dodgers have a little roster shuffling in their future.

Chris Withrow is the pitcher likely to be impacted most. He has options remaining and could be sent back to Triple-A despite a 2.21 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, a surprising 3.1 BB/9 and a stellar 10.6 K/9. The 24-year-old flamethrower has been a pleasant surprise this season and should be a viable relief option come October. Perhaps a phantom DL stint for he or Carlos Marmol is in the Dodgers’ future plans.

Speaking of Marmol, he’s probably the “best” option to go in place of Wilson, but his effectiveness in recent outings has the Dodgers seeing the Marmol of old with tons of swing-and-miss potential.

Dee Gordon is currently eligible, but if Withrow or Marmol aren’t jettisoned for Wilson, Gordon could be, especially with Hanley Ramirez back in the fold.

Here are some Dodgers on the disabled list right now.

15-day DL

Josh Beckett

Jose Dominguez

Matt Kemp

Shawn Tolleson

60-day DL

Chad Billingsley

Beckett and Billingsley aren’t going to pitch again this season.

Dominguez, Kemp and Tolleson will remain on the DL -- regardless of their health -- until after Sept. 1, because it allows the Dodgers to use the injury loophole to make the most guys eligible for the postseason. This also allows Dominguez and Tolleson, who are in the same boat as Withrow in terms of options, to be postseason-eligible.

A guy not yet eligible is Stephen Fife, who has been fantastic this season. Unfortunately for him, the Dodgers don’t need a fifth (or in this case, sixth) starter in the playoffs. It’s unknown how he’d perform out of the bullpen, but he got roughed up in his most recent outing in Triple-A. Chris Capuano was roughed up last night and could use a late-season vacation, I’d say.

One would think the Dodgers should have a third catcher to be playoff-eligible, meaning Drew Butera would need to be promoted from Albuquerque. This could come in the form of a disabled list stint for either A.J. Ellis or Tim Federowicz.

Whatever happens, the Dodgers need to make sure Scott Van Slyke is eligible. His right-handed pop off the bench could be a valuable asset if the Braves throw Luis Avilan or Alex Wood; or the Pirates throw Tony Watson or Justin Wilson; or the Cardinals throw Randy Choate, Kevin Siegrist or Sam Freeman at the Dodgers in a late-inning situation.

There’s also Onelki Garcia, who I suspect has a good chance to be more than just a September call-up. So, General Manager Ned Colletti has a lot of work to do in the next couple of weeks. This doesn’t include any potential waiver-wire deals the Dodgers could make (but I’m not expecting any).

The position players are pretty much set, outside of Kemp and Van Slyke. Perhaps Jerry Hairston could use a couple weeks off starting rather soon. And this whole “four full-time outfielders” issue is going to be moot come the World Series when Andre Ethier is DH’ing for the Dodgers.

Here’s my prediction for all postseason-eligible players

Pitchers (16)

Ronald Belisario

Chris Capuano

Jose Dominguez

Stephen Fife

Zack Greinke

J.P. Howell

Kenley Jansen

Clayton Kershaw

Brandon League

Carlos Marmol

Ricky Nolasco

Paco Rodriguez

Hyun-jin Ryu

Shawn Tolleson

Brian Wilson

Chris Withrow

Catchers (3)

Drew Butera

A.J. Ellis

Tim Federowicz

Infielders (7)

Mark Ellis

Adrian Gonzalez

Jerry Hairston

Nick Punto

Hanley Ramirez

Skip Schumaker

Juan Uribe

Outfielders (5)

Carl Crawford

Andre Ethier

Matt Kemp

Yasiel Puig

Scott Van Slyke

For all these guys to be eligible, the following players who aren’t currently on the 25-man roster would have to be before the deadline: Butera, Fife, Van Slyke and Wilson. Here’s how it happens: 

• Ellis or Federowicz to the DL for Butera
• Capuano to the DL for Fife
• Hairston to the DL for Van Slyke
• Gordon to Triple-A for Wilson

The roster will be trimmed to 25 for the first round, but the additional players can at least be called upon to take the place of injured and/or ineffective players after each round.

Of all the players unsure to be postseason-eligible, Withrow is the one I want most. His control and command have been much better than expected and his mid-to-upper-90s fastball would be quite the weapon in the playoffs.

We’ll see what happens in the next couple weeks. Here’s hoping the Dodgers make some smart decisions.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 41 - Puig, Eric Smith interview, MLB Draft

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (Dodger Diamond) talk about all things Yasiel Puig. We recorded before last night's epic performance, but holy Jesus this kid is good.

We also talk about the return of Hanley Ramirez, as well as Carl Crawford and Chris Capuano to the disabled list.

Corey Seager is back and playing in Midland, which is great to see. And Julio Urias had another solid outing for the Loons.

Speaking of the Loons, I had a chance to interview catcher Eric Smith, the Dodgers' 18th-round draft pick last season. He talks about his approach at the plate, his adaptation to catching and even touches a little on surefire No. 1 or No. 2 pick Mark Appel.

Speaking of the draft, it's tomorrow. Jared and I talk about our updated big boards and what we expect to happen tomorrow.

Finally, we answer listener questions. A lot of questions regarding Puig, Andre Ethier and his eventual departure and the draft.

Libsyn link
Direct link
iTunes link

Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@Dodger_Diamond or @FeelinKindaBlue). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 37 - Dodgers' injuries, Ellis, prospects

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (Dodger Diamond) and I record discuss the myriad of injury issues with the Dodgers and how the club is handling them.

It took the team 10 days to place Mark Ellis on the disabled list, which makes no sense. Jerry Hairston was swapped out for Elian Herrera and Chris Capuano was mishandled, as was Josh Wall.

I recap my trip to see the Quakes play in Stockton. Some good things from the three-game series, and a few not-so-good things. Such is baseball, though.

Ross Stripling was promoted to Double-A, which I wrote about last night. Jarret Martin impressed me and there's more talent offensively than first suspected.

To close, we answer listener questions. A lot of good ones again this week. Please, please, please keep them coming. It's my favorite part of the show.

Libsyn link
Direct link
iTunes link

Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@Dodger_Diamond or @FeelinKindaBlue). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Dodgers place Chad Billingsley on DL, recall Stephen Fife, sadness ensues

That didn't take long at all. We were all skeptical about how long Chad Billingsley's balky elbow would hold up. The answer: two starts.

The Dodgers placed the 28-year-old on the disabled list on Sunday. Stephen Fife was recalled from Triple-A to take his spot.

While I've come around on Fife, this is still a bad situation for the Dodgers, which will seemingly cap off a bad week.

Some are calling for Zach Lee to be recalled. While I"m sure it's tempting, especially with his fast start in Double-A, the Dodgers have other options.

Ted Lilly is set to rejoin the team next week. After the Dodgers and Lilly played a game of chicken, the Dodgers won. In hindsight, that was a good win for the club. Instead of finding a trade partner for Lilly or having to release him, he'll slide into Chris Capuano's spot until the lefty is ready. Then, the Dodgers will have to make yet another decision about the rotation.

For now, Fife is playing the role of Billingsley. He was always going to be first in line from the minors to replace a fallen starter, especially after logging 26 2/3 decent innings with the club last season. If things don't go well with Fife and Capuano isn't fully healed, Matt Magill would be next. He's already on the 40-man roster, so the Dodgers wouldn't have to make a subsequent move to get him on the active roster.

I'm the biggest Magill fan not named Chad Moriyama in the Dodger blog community, but he needs a little more seasoning before he gets the call. He's walked 10 batters in 15 innings. That isn't the kind of walk rate that's conducive to success anywhere, let alone the majors.

It would take a lot of bad luck for Lee to start a game for the Dodgers this season. That, or he'd be so lights-out in Double-A that his prospect status rises again and the Dodgers can't keep him down.

If Zack Greinke weren't out, Billingsley's elbow soreness -- while expected at some point -- wouldn't be as big a deal. Greinke will be fine when he gets back, but there's no telling what the Dodgers are going to get out of Lilly, Capuano and Fife. And that's a scary thought.

So much for that pitching depth, eh? It's really being put to the test right now.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Carlos Quentin suspended 8 games for breaking Zack Greinke's collarbone

That's fair, right? The Padres' second-best hitter (which isn't saying much) idiotically charges the mound and, because of that, the Dodgers lose their No. 2 starter in Zack Greinke for at least eight weeks.

The funny thing is, Quentin will appeal and likely get the suspension reduced to five games. Oh the joy of the Player's Union.

Greinke is having surgery on Saturday, which makes his recovery time longer than it would normally be.

Greinke will have his clavicle fixated. Increases time out. Eight weeks quoted by Dodgers is aggressive.
— Will Carroll (@injuryexpert) April 12, 2013

So, there's that.

The Dodgers are going to have to make due without their No. 2 starter (an ace on two-thirds of MLB teams) for at least eight weeks. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he didn't pitch until after the All-Star break.

The team recalled Shawn Tolleson to replace Greinke on the roster, but that should be short-lived. Ted Lilly will likely be the beneficiary of Greinke's injury.

Chris Capuano is the better pitcher, but he's not stretched out to start after beginning the season in the bullpen. Plus, his skill set is much better coming out of the 'pen than Lilly.

Lilly has been unimpressive in his first two minor-league rehab starts: 12 IP, 17 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 4 HR, 1 BB, 10 K. At least he hasn't walked a bunch of minor-leaguers.

This doesn't bode well for the Dodgers. The clear loss is downgrading from Greinke to Lilly. If Chad Billingsley can give close to Greinke-level production while Zack is out, that would be great. He wasn't bad in his first start of the season. It's just a matter of his elbow holding up.

Jerry Hairston was also suspended for a game, which is no big deal. I'm surprised Matt Kemp didn't get any suspension at all.

Hanley Ramirez's return should help to mitigate the Greinke loss, but he won't be back for another month-plus. Until then, Kemp needs to break out of his slump and hope the rest of the rotation steps it up in Greinke's absence.

Photo credit: wisley, Flickr 

Report: Dodgers acquire Ramon Hernandez from Rockies for Aaron Harang in confusing deal

In a bit of surprising news from Saturday morning, the Dodgers have acquired catcher Ramon Hernandez from the Rockies.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweeted the Dodgers traded Aaron Harang and cash to acquire Hernandez.

Hernandez was designated for assignment last week by Colorado, so the team could only trade or release him, as he wouldn't accept an assignment to Triple-A.

Hernandez was unimpressive last season, hitting just .217/.247/.353 -- a line that could make Baby Jesus weep -- in just 52 games. He played in 91 games the year before with the Reds and hit much better: .282/.341/.446.

Hernandez is due $3.2 million this season. Not a bad price for a starting catcher, but Hernandez won't be a starting catcher with the Dodgers. That honor belongs to A.J. Ellis.

However, the fate of Tim Federowicz is uncertain at this point. The 25-year-old won the backup job in spring training, but that is apparently short-lived. Hernandez is set to displace Federowicz as the team's backup, meaning Federowicz is slated for Triple-A or, perhaps more likely, a trade.

This move is a tad puzzling. Yes, Hernandez has better offensive potential (even at his advanced age), but Federowicz is miles ahead of him on defense.

Hernandez hasn't had a positive defensive runs saved number since 2008 when he was with the Orioles. He's at -24 in the last four years -- the second-worst number of any catcher in that time.

While the Dodgers have started slow on offense this season, acquiring marginally better offensive backstop in lieu of a better defender is weird.

Hernandez will take Harang's 40-man roster spot. And with Chad Billingsley set to come back on Wednesday, the team needs to free up a spot for him on the pitching staff. The spot on the staff is open, and it seems Federowicz, barring a trade as mentioned earlier, is heading back to Triple-A.

Federowicz has nothing left to prove in Triple-A. He's a marginal offensive player, who can draw a walk, with a plus glove. He isn't going to learn how to be a better hitter in Triple-A -- his third go-round.

The return for Harang wasn't going to be much, but you'd think the Dodgers could do a little better than this for Harang. Hell, even a low-level reliever would have been a better return. But, here we are.

Harang's stay in Colorado could be short, as Ken Rosenthal tweeted Harang isn't likely to stay with the Rockies.

This screams of a 3-way deal, as it doesn't make a lot of sense to send Federowicz back to Albuquerque, especially with Jesus Flores and Matt Wallach likely able to hold the fort down there.

We'll see what happens. This is a fluid situation right now. and we haven't heard the end of this deal yet.

Photo credits

Hernandez: Commonist, Wikimedia Commons

Federowicz: EephusBlue, Paint the Corners

Dodgers' SPs Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly likely to start season on DL

Maybe it's a good thing the Dodgers didn't rush to trade Chris Capuano, as Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly are both expected to start the 2013 season on the disabled list.

Billingsley, who is dealing with a potential elbow issue, also is dealing with an injured fingernail on his pitching hand. He was slated to start the second game of the season after Zack Greinke had his Dodger debut pushed back because of a spring training elbow injury.

Instead, Billingsley will be out for a little bit, meaning Capuano will likely be in the Dodgers' rotation -- if Billingsley is out long enough, as the Dodgers won't need a starter for the two weeks of the season.

The Dodgers' rotation sets up like this for the first two weeks (barring anything unforeseen):

• April 1: Clayton Kershaw
• April 2: Hyun-Jin Ryu
• April 3: Josh Beckett
• April 5: Zack Greinke
• April 6: Kershaw
• April 7: Ryu
• April 9: Beckett
• April 10: Greinke
• April 11: Kershaw
• April 12: Ryu
• April 13: Beckett
• April 14: Greinke

Lilly, who was just terrible this spring (9 IP, 17 H, 18 R, 14 ER, 8 BB, 6 K), wasn't going to be much of a factor anyway, but he didn't do anything to help his perceived value on the trade market. He's in the last year of his deal, but I'd be surprised if he made more than a handful of starts for the Dodgers, especially with him seemingly not fully recovered from his shoulder surgery.

I've yet to mention Aaron Harang because I doubt he's still a Dodger by Monday. He'll either be traded to one of the teams that have scouted his starts (Mets, Orioles, Brewers, Mariners) or he'll be designated for assignment. Harang, who's made six relief appearances in his 11-year career, would not fare well out of the bullpen. He needs to be a starter on a team that needs a guy capable of throwing 160 or more innings. Harang is that guy.

When the Dodgers need a starter on April 15, let's hope Billingsley is ready to take the ball. If not, I suppose that are worse options than Capuano -- if he's still a Dodger.

Photo credit: SD Dirk, Flickr

First impression of Dodgers' Hyun-Jin Ryu: Not an ace, but not bad, either

Hyun-Jin Ryu pitched at Camelback Ranch on Sunday -- the last day of my spring training trip. I was lucky enough to see him on that day.

While it started off rough, he ended up throwing a gem (by spring training standards).

Ryu gave up a run on three hits in the first inning, with little help from his defense. Luckily for Ryu, Adrian Gonzalez hit a 3-run home run in the first inning, and the Dodgers were off.

Ryu ended up throwing 5 2/3 innings, allowed three hits, one run, two walks and struck out six Brewers. He retired the last 11 hitters he faced on St. Patrick's Day (hence the ridiculous green jerseys).

Pitches
- Scouting reports have varied on Ryu and what I saw in spring training is just that -- spring training. But he showed at least one plus offering, an average offering, an offering that could be average soon and a below-average offering.

Four-seam fastball
- The scouting reports about Ryu have not been consistent. Some said he throws in the 87-92 MPH range, others said 92-94 MPH. On this day, Ryu was in the 88-90 MPH range with his fastball. He had just a little arm-side run (as all lefties do) and was able to locate it well enough. Hopefully for him and the Dodgers, he can increase his velocity going forward. Average

Changeup
- This is absolutely his best pitch. The pitch dives away from right-handers, prompting a lot of swings and misses. He can change speeds on it. He threw it in the 78-81 MPH range, which is about right for his fastball velocity. The changeup will be the pitch he will be known for in his career -- and that necessarily isn't a bad thing. Plus

Curveball
- Ryu worked with Sandy Koufax early in camp on the pitch and it might be developing into his third-best offering. He can throw it at different speeds -- anywhere from 71-78 MPH. It still needs work, but it could be a nice weapon against left-handed hitters if he can be consistent with it. Average soon

Slider
- His slider, like most lefties, can be effective against both types of hitters. As of now, it's not a pitch he can go to with the utmost confidence. It's a pitch that sits in the upper-70s and can touch the low-80s. But the fact he throws four pitches at this point in his career is encouraging. The slider doesn't have the greatest tilt and depth to it, but he shouldn't ditch it just yet. Below-average

His delivery isn't picturesque, but it works for him and shouldn't lead to many injury issues down the road. His frame is such that he should be able to handle a heavy (I swear, no pun intended) workload, but we'll see how he handles his first season in the majors.

When Ryu hit the market, everyone knew he wasn't an ace. People knew he wasn't a No. 2 starter. But with work and his potentially good four-pitch mix, he could be a No. 3 starter at his peak. If not, he'll likely be an inning-eating (again, no pun intended) back-of-the-rotation starter -- a pitcher who has value in baseball.

With Chad Billingsley not certain to make it through the season, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang, and Ted Lilly's spring struggles and Zack Greinke's elbow (though, he should be OK), Ryu might be the most durable Dodger pitcher this side of Clayton Kershaw.

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Zack Greinke's elbow is OK (for now), Dodgers and fans breathe sigh of relief

When Bill Shaikin tweeted about Zack Greinke's elbow yesterday, Dodger fans everywhere held their collective breath. Could the team's biggest free agent signing ever really be hurt already?

Luckily, Greinke's MRI came back relatively clean, save some inflammation. But in a somewhat surprising twist, Greinke needed a platelet-rich plasma injection -- the same injection Chad Billingsley received for his partially torn ulnar collateral ligament.

I'm not saying Greinke has a serious problem with his UCL, but the PRP injection is something worth noting.

He should return to his throwing program in the next couple days and manager Don Mattingly expects Greinke to be ready for his April 2 start.

The Dodgers stated they were being overly cautious with Greinke's elbow, and rightfully so. There's nothing wrong with that for any player, but especially a player who signed a 6-year, $147 million contract this winter.

And something refreshing pointed out by Mike Petriello:

"One positive from this Greinke elbow thing is that he told the team. We've seen far too many guys try to 'gut it out' and make things worse."

If any player is going to be upfront about his health status, it's Greinke.

Here's hoping this isn't a problem going forward, but it also just shows how volatile Major League pitchers are these days.

Maybe it's a good thing the Dodgers haven't yet traded one of their 47 starting pitchers, but more specifically, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang and Ted Lilly. I'm certain at least one will go before April 1, but it's anyone's guess at this point who that pitcher might be.

Photo credit: EephusBlue, Twitter

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 22 - Dodgers, Ross Stripling interview, prospects, minors, listener questions

On this episode of "Dugout Blues," Jared Massey (L.A. Dugout) and I interview Dodgers' pitching prospect Ross Stripling. He was the team's 2012 fifth-round selection and gives us a lot of insight to his increased velocity, his first season as a pro and what he did on draft day.

We examine the Dodger prospects who made Keith Law's Top 100 list. There were only two, and one omission might surprise you.

We talk about two Dodger prospects who are moving to the bullpen -- both of which were expected moves. One is Chris Withrow, the other Pedro Baez. Withrow was the Dodgers' 2007 first-round pick and once had a ton of promise. Baez is a former third baseman who just couldn't hit enough to make it as a position player.

Jared and I also touch on non-roster invitees who could potentially make the Opening Day roster or remain in the organization in some capacity.

Finally, we close with listener questions. How old is Yasiel Puig, really? What other podcasts do we listen to? Are the Dodgers doing the right thing by not trading Chris Capuano and/or Aaron Harang just yet?

Libsyn link
Direct link
iTunes link

Look for new episodes of "Dugout Blues" every Wednesday. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast and review us on iTunes. We want to make this the best podcast we can so we're always looking for suggestions and ways to improve.

If you have questions you'd like us to answer or certain topics/players you want to hear more about, feel free to email us (ladugout@gmail.com or feelinkindablue@gmail.com) or send us messages on Twitter (@LADugout or @FeelinKindaBlue). You can also "Like" the podcast on Facebook. We always welcome audience participation.

Image credit: Joe Martin

Andre Ethier trade would improve farm system, but ulitmately limits flexibility

Well, well, well, apparently Andre Ethier isn't as unavailable as previously expected. The Dodgers, despite reports from some in the national media, have been talking to other teams about the outfielder -- specifically, the Seattle Mariners.

Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider and ESPN tweeted the news on New Year's Eve.

"Hearing Mariners have progressed in trade talks for a hitter. Indications it's Ethier. Multiple players involved."

That sent Dodger and Mariner fans into a tizzy on Twitter. Mike Petriello confirmed Churchill's tweet shortly after. He also added some of his thoughts via Twitter. He also did a post this morning about it that is must-read material.

"Here's the thing about Ethier talks, though: it's not going to be for Seager. If it happens, it'll be for SP prospects & maybe BRyan...

...and then Dodgers would fill OF hole with Bourne. But this isn't really new, has been the case for a while. And not tonight. (Hopefully).

Just because it's hitting Twitter now doesn't necessarily mean it's 'breaking,' is all I mean."

If it was Jason Bourne, I'd like the potential move a little more. Alas, the Bourn the Dodgers have their eye on is Michael Bourn.

Churchill said there could be as many as seven players involved and that the Dodgers would be looking at pitching prospects, an outfielder and another player.

When I wrote about a trade with the Mariners nearly a couple weeks ago, I came up with this proposal:

To Seattle: Ethier, Dee Gordon, cash (to offset some of Ethier's money)
To L.A.: Kyle Seager, Nick Franklin, Franklin Gutierrez, Brandon Maurer

I obviously blew it on this one. Most folks were up in arms about the inclusion of Seager, who is apparently a lot more valuable than I thought.

The Dodgers and Mariners have the potential to make quite a significant deal here. The Mariners are known to have interest in Gordon and one of the Dodger starters on the market -- Chris Capuano or Aaron Harang. The Dodgers would also have to throw in a significant amount of cash to get quality players in return.

I'm not going to do another proposal, but I'm going to throw out some players the Dodgers would be interested in. You'll notice this list doesn't include Felix Hernandez, Taijuan Walker and Mike Zunino. It isn't because the Dodgers don't have interest in him, it's because the M's aren't going to include those guys (especially Hernandez and Zunino) in a deal for Ethier.

Dustin Ackley
Carter Capps
Nick Franklin
Charlie Furbush
Franklin Gutierrez
Danny Hultzen
Brandon Maurer
James Paxton
Stefen Romero
Brendan Ryan
Casper Wells

I'm only including Ackley because the deal could be more than just Ethier going to Seattle. I don't think Mariners are going to move him, but he'd be the No. 1 prize of any trade.

If the Dodgers can't get Ackley (and they probably can't), getting guys like Hultzen and Franklin to headline a deal would be amazing.

The Mariners would have a glut of outfielders if they acquired Ethier, so moving Gutierrez or Wells in a deal like this would make sense.

A guy who could be a target is Romero, 24, who had a fantastic season between High-A and Double-A. His on-base skills need work (27 walks in 516 plate appearances in 2012), but he can put the bat on the ball (.352 average).

While Luis Cruz is a fine backup shortstop, he can't be counted on to backup Hanley Ramirez while he's manning third base. Perhaps that's the reason for Ryan's name being bandied about. The guy is a great defender, but he can't hit a lick (.194/.277/.278 in '12).

Silverwidow, a True Blue L.A. commenter, made an excellent point that I haven't seen made anywhere else yet.

"One thing that just dawned on me – the Dodgers hired a shitload of scouts from Seattle this winter. It’s fair to conclude that some or all of them will have knowledge of that system. Makes sense. Now, get Paxton!"

That is accurate and makes a potential deal a little more plausible.

There are a lot of potential moving parts in a possible deal -- which isn't especially close (having said that, it'll happen on Wednesday or Thursday).

Ethier's replacement?

Oh yeah, there's the matter of who would replace Ethier if he were traded. Apparently, the Dodgers see Bourn as that guy.

Bourn, 30, is coming off a nice campaign with the Braves. He hit .274/.348/.391 with a career-high nine home runs, 42 stolen bases and a 10 percent walk rate.

The Dodgers lack a "true" leadoff hitter. We all know Don Mattingly loves having speed atop the lineup. Carl Crawford is going to hit second (as long as he's productive) and having Bourn hit ahead of him would make Donnie Baseball the happiest cat around.

Bourn's value lies more in his defense than anything. He is the definition of an elite defender in center field -- so much so that he'd move Matt Kemp off the position. Kemp is a below-average defender in center, but his arm is great. However, moving Kemp to right field would improve the outfield defense a lot.

He had a career-high 6.4 WAR in 2012 and has been no worse than a 4-WAR player since 2009.

Eno Sarris of FanGraphs wrote a piece about Bourn and his unsigned status.

"Why isn’t there more interest in Michael Bourn? A six-win center fielder is on the market, and our most recent article on the subject is whether or not his agent has waited too long to get him a deal. We don’t know what his asking price is, but the idea that a player coming off a career year and four straight seasons with more than four wins now needs a pillow contract seems to suggest that either there’s a reason to doubt Bourn’s work, or there’s a lack of demand for his services in the market place.

There really aren’t many indications that Bourn’s 2012 was a luck-driven affair. His batting average on balls in play was .349. His career BABIP is .343. His batting average was .274. His career batting average is .272. He put up the best UZR/150 of his career at +22.5. His career UZR/150 is +10.5, and he had a +20.6 season as recently as 2010. He walked (10%, career 8.8%) and struck out (22%, career 20.2%) at about his career rates, too. Doesn’t seem like a fluke."

Bourn will likely command a multi-year deal worth many millions. His agent is Scott Boras, who's no stranger to getting his clients great deals late in the winter. The Dodgers could be on the hook for a 3 to 5-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $12-$15 million annually.

Signing Bourn would also mean losing the No. 19 pick in the MLB Draft. At first, this was a huge turnoff to me. While I still wouldn't be 100 percent on board with it, getting some legitimate prospects back from the Mariners would help to offset the loss of the pick.

The 2013 draft class isn't expected to be strong, making the pick more valuable in my eyes. The Dodgers wouldn't pick until the second round, which would hamper their ability to land a future major leaguer. That's something to consider.

Something that also concerns me about Bourn is his strikeouts. For being a guy who's a speedy, slappy leadoff guy, he strikes out an awful lot.

• 2008: 21.6 percent
• 2009: 20.6 percent
• 2010: 18 percent
• 2011: 19.4 percent
• 2012: 22 percent

Those are the strikeout rates of a power hitter, not a speedster. Bourn's career strikeout percentage is 20.2. By comparison, Kemp's is 23.4. That's the biggest negative with his offensive game. His 8.8 percent career walk rate is solid and has been trending up since 2008.

Here's a look at the potential starting lineups with and without Ethier.

With Ethier

Mark Ellis 2B
Carl Crawford LF
Matt Kemp CF
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Hanley Ramirez SS
Andre Ethier RF
A.J. Ellis C
Luis Cruz 3B

With Bourn

Bourn CF
Crawford LF
Kemp RF
Gonzalez 1B
Ramirez SS
Ellis C
Ellis 2B
Cruz 3B

The biggest differences between are the leadoff spots and No. 6 spots. With the Ethier lineup, there's more thump down in the lineup. With the Bourn lineup, there's more potential for havoc at the top.biggest differences between are the leadoff spots and No. 6 spots. With the Ethier lineup, there's more thump down in the lineup. With the Bourn lineup, there's more potential for havoc at the top, plus better overall defense.

I've really never been opposed to the Dodgers trading Ethier. I've written about it a number of times. However, replacing him with Bourn doesn't interest me as much as it does others, I'm sure.

My thought was if the Dodgers move Ethier, they gain flexibility for guys like Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson going forward. While they're unknown commodities, the Dodgers did invest a nice chunk of change in Puig. And Pederson had a breakout 2012 season. Signing Bourn immediately gives up that flexibility.

It's hard to field a competitive Major League team while keeping a strong farm system. Not many teams can do it for extended periods of time. General Manager Ned Colletti is in a tough spot here. The Dodgers are built to win now and for the next few years. They're also well on their way to rebuilding their farm system. Part of being competitive is flexibility. Having so many players locked up long-term limits flexibility via the minor leagues, but it does open up more trade possibilities.

Management is trying to get this team to the World Series. If they think this is the best route, sobeit. I'm genuinely torn on the subject. Trade Ethier? Fine. Replace him with Bourn? That's where I waffle.

I do like the improved outfield defense and having another stolen base threat in the lineup with Bourn. I'm not a fan of losing Ethier's pop out of the No. 6 spot. If the team had a legitimate third baseman, I'd feel a lot better about moving Ethier and replacing him with Bourn.

This is going to be an interesting situation to follow. Something could happen as soon as this week or nothing at all could happen. The fact that there's this much smoke definitely means there's fire. I'm just hoping the Dodgers can get a couple of B/B+ prospects in any deal of this magnitude.

Photo credits

Ethier: McD22, Flickr

Bourn: slgckgc, Flickr