After all the off-season previews, we come to what I would do (or attempt to do) if I were the Dodgers' general manager. I am taking into account the money situation, so there won't be any Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols sightings in this post (unfortunately).
My plan is somewhat a rebuilding plan, but also a plan to succeed in 2012. With Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers have two of the best players at their position in the game. It'd be wise not to waste those years with total building.
There's nothing I can do about Juan Uribe and Matt Guerrier, but I'm going to do the best I can with those two still on the roster.
My plan
Priority No. 1 - Extend Matt Kemp
7 years, $140 million + two team options
13: $12M, 14: $16M, 15: $26M, 16: $24M, 17: $22M, 18: $20M,
19: $20M, 20: $20M ($4M buyout), 21: $20M ($4M buyout)
- This is the Dodgers' priority. Kemp is an unrestricted free agent after the 2012 season and is coming off a near-Triple Crown performance. He's 27 years old and is in the early stages of his prime. He's going to be worth every penny, even if he eventually moves from center field to right field.
Re-signings
RHP Hiroki Kuroda - 1 year, $9 million
- This one is a no-brainer, if he's willing to come back. Kuroda was solid in 2011 and could very well be the Dodgers' No. 2 starter next season.
RHP Vicente Padilla - 1 year, $2 million
- Bringing in Padilla last season as a "utility" pitcher was a smart move. It's too bad he didn't stay healthy. The Dodgers should give that option another shot.
OF/1B Juan Rivera - 1 year, $4 million (2013 option for $4 million or a $500,000 buyout)
- Before news of Rivera re-signing broke, I actually had him coming back at $4 million for one season. The reaction on the Interwebs was none too good, so perhaps I was channeling my inner Ned Colletti on this one.
Arbitration
OF Tony Gwynn
- Gwynn would be a nice No. 5 outfielder for the Dodgers, just as he was this season. He wouldn't cost a lot.
RHP Blake Hawksworth
- He threw some quality innings before a late-season collapse. He should definitely be brought back to be the long reliever in the Dodger 'pen.
LHP Clayton Kershaw
- Kershaw could set records in his first year of arbitration, and an extension for him should be forthcoming.
Trades
To Atlanta: OF Andre Ethier, 2B Ivan DeJesus
To Los Angeles: 2B Martin Prado, RHP J.J. Hoover
- The Dodgers have a big hole at second base and Prado is available for a big bat. Ethier could be the big bat the Braves are looking for and Prado would slide right in at 2B and in the No. 2 spot in the order. DeJesus is apparently not in the Dodgers' future plans. Hoover is a nice middle-of-the-rotation prospect or reliever.
To Florida: RHP Javy Guerra, RHP Allen Webster, OF Alfredo Silverio, RHP Steve Ames
To Los Angeles: 1B/OF Logan Morrison, RHP Chris Volstad
- This trade is modified from my post the other day about trade targets. This may seem like a lot to give up for a 24-year-old who hit .247, but he'd be well worth it. He'd immediately be the Dodgers' clean-up hitter and provide the best protection for Kemp. The Dodgers also nab a 25-year-old starter who's down on his luck after the last couple of years. He still has potential and is insurance for Nathan Eovaldi.
Trading Guerra at the height of his value is a smart thing. He'll likely be a solid reliever in the Majors, but he might not ever be as good as he was in 2011. I'm not as high on Silverio as others, but I am on Webster. The Marlins have also expressed interest in Fielder or Pujols -- albeit mild -- which could lead them to trading Morrison to improve the rest of the team. All three prospects are nearly Major-League ready.
Free agent signings
IF Wilson Betemit - 1 year, $2 million
- The former Brave, Dodger, Yankee, White Sox, Royal and Tiger returns to the Dodgers with the hopes he splits playing time with Juan Uribe at third base. He can also play first base and second base (in a pinch).
OF Grady Sizemore - 1 year, $6 million + option $9 million option ($1.5 million buyout) for 2013
- Despite people saying he could get close to $9 million, I don't think there's anyway he does. He's coming off three injury-plagued seasons and isn't the same player he once was. So why do I want him? Well, I've always been enamored with his abilities and think he could be a good risk/reward player. He'd basically be replacing Ethier as the Dodgers' left fielder. If he could get back to any part of his former self, this would be a steal for the Dodgers.
LHP Brian Tallet - 1 year, $650,000
- He's older and a lefty, which means he's in demand. The Dodgers need another lefty in the bullpen and not just a LOOGY, either. Tallet can go multiple innings, if needed.
Lineup (8)
Dee Gordon SS
Martin Prado 2B
Matt Kemp CF
Logan Morrison 1B
Jerry Sands RF
Grady Sizemore LF
Juan Uribe 3B
A.J. Ellis C
Rotation (5)
Clayton Kershaw LHP
Hiroki Kuroda RHP
Chad Billingsley RHP
Ted Lilly LHP
Nathan Eovaldi RHP
Bullpen (7)
Chris Volstad RHP
Blake Hawksworth RHP
Brian Tallet LHP
Matt Guerrier RHP
Josh Lindblom RHP
Scott Elbert LHP
Kenley Jansen RHP
Bench (5)
Wilson Betemit IF
Tim Federowicz C
Tony Gwynn OF
Juan Rivera OF/1B
Justin Sellers IF
So, there you have it. No Fielder. No Pujols. Yet, this team can be competitive. The minor-league depth takes a hit with the Morrison trade, but the Dodgers also get a young middle-of-the-order bat in return. They also lose Ethier but gain a second baseman capable of putting up an .800 OPS.
The pitching staff remains the same. I am a little worried about depth and considering the number of injuries the Dodgers had in 2011, it'll be interesting to see what they do to strengthen depth overall.
The Dodgers also have a lot of guys on the cusp of tasting the Majors, including Alex Castellanos, Jamie Hoffmann and Scott Van Slyke. Any of these guys could find themselves on the Dodgers' roster in 2012. The Dodgers also have some pitchers (Shawn Tolleson, Chris Withrow) and position players (Gorman Erickson, Kyle Russell) close to the Majors.
Chime in with your thoughts in the comments section or on Twitter.
Showing posts with label Logan Morrison. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Logan Morrison. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Sunday, November 6, 2011
2011 Los Angeles Dodgers off-season preview: Trade targets
In the last of my off-season previews, I look at potential trade targets. The Dodgers' minor-league system is rich with low-level pitching and MLB-average (at best) outfielders. Teams will be interested in pitching, but the Dodgers could (and should) go a different direction -- trading veterans.
Will they? Probably not. But there are some pieces on the market the team could certainly use.
Not surprisingly, there are no pitchers on this list. And yes, you will see some of these scenarios in my 2012 plan, which will drop this week.
Targets
C Chris Iannetta, COL
.238/.370/.414, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 102 OPS+
- Iannetta has good power potential and on-base abilities, but he doesn't hit enough on the whole. Still just 28, perhaps a change of scenery is in order for him.
What would it take to get him?
To Colorado: Ivan DeJesus, Javier Solano
To L.A.: Ianetta
Why it works for Colorado: The Rockies get a Major League-ready middle infielder and a relief prospect who's faced Double-A competition. Plus, it clears the way for Wilin Rosario.
Why it works for L.A.: The Dodgers take a chance on a catcher who, if he could put it all together, could be a force. He's a solid defender and would prevent the Dodgers from relying on solely A.J. Ellis and Tim Federowicz.
C Devin Mesoraco, CIN
.289/.371/.484, 15 HR, 71 RBI (Minors)
.180/.226/.360, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 57 OPS+ (Majors)
- Mesoraco is one of the best catching prospects in the game. So, why is he available? Well, he might not technically be available, but the Dodgers have a couple pieces that could intrigue the Reds.
What would it take to get him?
To Cincinnati: Ethier, Steve Ames
To Los Angeles: Mesoraco
Why it works for Cincinnati: Ramon Hernandez is a Type-A free agent and if the Reds don't offer him arbitration, he won't be back. If they do, however, there aren't going to be a lot of teams lining up to give up a first- or second-round draft pick to get him. But the Reds would be getting a middle-of-the-order bat in Ethier and a nearly Major League-ready reliever who had good success in at High-A and Double-A in 2011.
Why it works for L.A.: The catching void is filled with one of the best prospects in the game. The Reds also have Yasmain Grandal waiting in the wings. The Dodgers shouldn't be looking to trade Matt Kemp's only protection, but if it means filling a big hole, then it should be done. Also, losing Ames could hurt a little, but the Dodgers have a glut of right-handed pitching prospects (starters and relievers).
1B/LF Logan Morrison, FLA
.247/.330/.468, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 116 OPS+
- Morrison is the type of the guy the Marlins wouldn't normally make available (and they haven't). He was demoted to the minors for seemingly no apparent reason in August. Some speculated it was because he was outspoken on Twitter. If a team is that afraid of a player, they don't deserve to have him (yes, I'm editorializing).
What would it take to get him?
To Florida: Allen Webster, Alfredo Silverio, Shawn Tolleson
To Los Angeles: Morrison
Why it works for Florida: The Marlins get three guys close to the Majors, with Webster and Tolleson ranking in my Top 10 Dodgers' prospect list. Silverio is in the low-teens at this moment. The Marlins are always seemingly in the market for a center fielder. Silverio might best be suited for the corners, but he could get a look there. They also get a young starter and fire-balling reliever.
Why it works for L.A.: The Dodgers get a guy who is a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat and can play either left field or first base. In the Dodgers' case, he'd slot in at first base. Oh, and he's just 24 years old.
2B/3B Martin Prado, ATL
.260/.302/.385, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 89 OPS+
- This would be a case of buying low. Prado can play second or third base effectively, which is something the Dodgers could use. He had three consecutive seasons of .800-plus OPS from 2008 to 2010 before falling to .687 last season. The Braves have made him available and the Dodgers should be in on him.
The Braves are said interested in cutting payroll while acquiring a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. The Dodgers have a person who fits the latter.
What would it take to get him?
To Atlanta: Andre Ethier
To Los Angeles: Prado, J.J. Hoover
Why it works for Atlanta: The Braves are in the market for a bat and have a big hole in left field -- the position Prado played most in 2011. Ethier, despite coming off knee surgery, would be a nice get for the Braves. The money might be the only factor with this trade.
Why it works for L.A.: The Dodgers clear up some room in the outfield for Jerry Sands and another player (I'm looking at you, Logan Morrison). Plus, Prado makes less, offering the Dodgers some payroll flexibility. They also acquire a solid right-handed back-of-the-rotation or relief prospect in Hoover.
3B Ian Stewart, COL
.156/.243/.221, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 21 OPS+ (Majors)
.275/.359/.591, 14 HR, 42 RBI (Minors)
- Prior to the 2010 season, the then-24-year-old was on the verge of stardom. Stewart was coming off a 25-home run campaign and looked to be putting it all together (despite a .228 batting average). His 2010 wasn't horrible, but he didn't improve much, if at all. His 2011 was disastrous. He never got on track and has likely worn out his welcome in Colorado.
What would it take to get him?
To Colorado: Aaron Miller
To Los Angeles: Stewart
Why it works for Colorado: The Rockies get a former No. 1 pick who still has a chance to be a starter but will more likely end up in the bullpen. Plus, Stewart doesn't appear to be in the Rockies' plans.
Why it works for Los Angeles: The Dodgers don't have to give up much to buy low on a guy who has solid potential.
3B David Wright, NYM
.254/.345/.427, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 114 OPS+
- This is the one not a lot of people are talking about. There always seems to be a guy who gets traded who comes out of nowhere. Wright could very well be that guy. He's owed $15 million in 2012 and has a 2013 club option for $16 million (with a $1 million buyout). The Mets are said to be looking for a young center fielder. No, the Dodgers aren't going to trade Kemp for him. And there aren't many high-upside center fielders in the Dodgers organization otherwise. But they have a corner outfielder and starting pitcher who could interest the Mets.
What would it take to get him?
To New York: Ethier, Billingsley
To Los Angeles: Wright
Why it works for New York: The Mets get a bat to seemingly replace Wright's in the lineup (albeit not at the same position) and a young starter who had a poor 2011. Both are prime for bounce-back seasons. The Mets would keep Billingsley long-term and they could collect draft picks for Ethier after 2012 if they don't wish to keep him.
Why it works for Los Angeles: The Dodgers get a cornerstone-type player who's had mediocre seasons (by his standards) two of the last three seasons. Plus, he is immediate protection for Kemp. The Dodgers save some money in 2012, but it also opens up a hole in the rotation.
Analysis
I'd handicap the likeliness of a trade among the six players above like this:
That does it for my 2011 off-season preview.
Next up: My 2012 plan.
Have thoughts? Leave a comment or hit me up on Twitter.
Will they? Probably not. But there are some pieces on the market the team could certainly use.
Not surprisingly, there are no pitchers on this list. And yes, you will see some of these scenarios in my 2012 plan, which will drop this week.
Targets
C Chris Iannetta, COL
.238/.370/.414, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 102 OPS+
- Iannetta has good power potential and on-base abilities, but he doesn't hit enough on the whole. Still just 28, perhaps a change of scenery is in order for him.
What would it take to get him?
To Colorado: Ivan DeJesus, Javier Solano
To L.A.: Ianetta
Why it works for Colorado: The Rockies get a Major League-ready middle infielder and a relief prospect who's faced Double-A competition. Plus, it clears the way for Wilin Rosario.
Why it works for L.A.: The Dodgers take a chance on a catcher who, if he could put it all together, could be a force. He's a solid defender and would prevent the Dodgers from relying on solely A.J. Ellis and Tim Federowicz.
C Devin Mesoraco, CIN
.289/.371/.484, 15 HR, 71 RBI (Minors)
.180/.226/.360, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 57 OPS+ (Majors)
- Mesoraco is one of the best catching prospects in the game. So, why is he available? Well, he might not technically be available, but the Dodgers have a couple pieces that could intrigue the Reds.
What would it take to get him?
To Cincinnati: Ethier, Steve Ames
To Los Angeles: Mesoraco
Why it works for Cincinnati: Ramon Hernandez is a Type-A free agent and if the Reds don't offer him arbitration, he won't be back. If they do, however, there aren't going to be a lot of teams lining up to give up a first- or second-round draft pick to get him. But the Reds would be getting a middle-of-the-order bat in Ethier and a nearly Major League-ready reliever who had good success in at High-A and Double-A in 2011.
Why it works for L.A.: The catching void is filled with one of the best prospects in the game. The Reds also have Yasmain Grandal waiting in the wings. The Dodgers shouldn't be looking to trade Matt Kemp's only protection, but if it means filling a big hole, then it should be done. Also, losing Ames could hurt a little, but the Dodgers have a glut of right-handed pitching prospects (starters and relievers).
1B/LF Logan Morrison, FLA
.247/.330/.468, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 116 OPS+
- Morrison is the type of the guy the Marlins wouldn't normally make available (and they haven't). He was demoted to the minors for seemingly no apparent reason in August. Some speculated it was because he was outspoken on Twitter. If a team is that afraid of a player, they don't deserve to have him (yes, I'm editorializing).
What would it take to get him?
To Florida: Allen Webster, Alfredo Silverio, Shawn Tolleson
To Los Angeles: Morrison
Why it works for Florida: The Marlins get three guys close to the Majors, with Webster and Tolleson ranking in my Top 10 Dodgers' prospect list. Silverio is in the low-teens at this moment. The Marlins are always seemingly in the market for a center fielder. Silverio might best be suited for the corners, but he could get a look there. They also get a young starter and fire-balling reliever.
Why it works for L.A.: The Dodgers get a guy who is a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat and can play either left field or first base. In the Dodgers' case, he'd slot in at first base. Oh, and he's just 24 years old.
2B/3B Martin Prado, ATL
.260/.302/.385, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 89 OPS+
- This would be a case of buying low. Prado can play second or third base effectively, which is something the Dodgers could use. He had three consecutive seasons of .800-plus OPS from 2008 to 2010 before falling to .687 last season. The Braves have made him available and the Dodgers should be in on him.
The Braves are said interested in cutting payroll while acquiring a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. The Dodgers have a person who fits the latter.
What would it take to get him?
To Atlanta: Andre Ethier
To Los Angeles: Prado, J.J. Hoover
Why it works for Atlanta: The Braves are in the market for a bat and have a big hole in left field -- the position Prado played most in 2011. Ethier, despite coming off knee surgery, would be a nice get for the Braves. The money might be the only factor with this trade.
Why it works for L.A.: The Dodgers clear up some room in the outfield for Jerry Sands and another player (I'm looking at you, Logan Morrison). Plus, Prado makes less, offering the Dodgers some payroll flexibility. They also acquire a solid right-handed back-of-the-rotation or relief prospect in Hoover.
3B Ian Stewart, COL
.156/.243/.221, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 21 OPS+ (Majors)
.275/.359/.591, 14 HR, 42 RBI (Minors)
- Prior to the 2010 season, the then-24-year-old was on the verge of stardom. Stewart was coming off a 25-home run campaign and looked to be putting it all together (despite a .228 batting average). His 2010 wasn't horrible, but he didn't improve much, if at all. His 2011 was disastrous. He never got on track and has likely worn out his welcome in Colorado.
What would it take to get him?
To Colorado: Aaron Miller
To Los Angeles: Stewart
Why it works for Colorado: The Rockies get a former No. 1 pick who still has a chance to be a starter but will more likely end up in the bullpen. Plus, Stewart doesn't appear to be in the Rockies' plans.
Why it works for Los Angeles: The Dodgers don't have to give up much to buy low on a guy who has solid potential.
3B David Wright, NYM
.254/.345/.427, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 114 OPS+
- This is the one not a lot of people are talking about. There always seems to be a guy who gets traded who comes out of nowhere. Wright could very well be that guy. He's owed $15 million in 2012 and has a 2013 club option for $16 million (with a $1 million buyout). The Mets are said to be looking for a young center fielder. No, the Dodgers aren't going to trade Kemp for him. And there aren't many high-upside center fielders in the Dodgers organization otherwise. But they have a corner outfielder and starting pitcher who could interest the Mets.
What would it take to get him?
To New York: Ethier, Billingsley
To Los Angeles: Wright
Why it works for New York: The Mets get a bat to seemingly replace Wright's in the lineup (albeit not at the same position) and a young starter who had a poor 2011. Both are prime for bounce-back seasons. The Mets would keep Billingsley long-term and they could collect draft picks for Ethier after 2012 if they don't wish to keep him.
Why it works for Los Angeles: The Dodgers get a cornerstone-type player who's had mediocre seasons (by his standards) two of the last three seasons. Plus, he is immediate protection for Kemp. The Dodgers save some money in 2012, but it also opens up a hole in the rotation.
Analysis
I'd handicap the likeliness of a trade among the six players above like this:
- Ianetta
- Stewart
- Prado
- Morrison
- Mesoraco
- Wright
That does it for my 2011 off-season preview.
Next up: My 2012 plan.
Have thoughts? Leave a comment or hit me up on Twitter.
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