Monday, July 12, 2010

Midseason analysis and grades

The 2010 season didn't start off great for the Dodgers, as they lost 14 of 25 games to start the season. May was a lot better, as the Dodgers went 20-8 followed by a 14-13 month of June.

The Dodgers finished the "first half" at 49-39, two games back of arguably the most surprising team in baseball, the 51-37 San Diego Padres.

The Dodgers struggled mightily in Interleague play, going 4-11. Granted, they played some really good teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Tigers), but they had some winnable games. They made up for that by going 23-6 within the NL West -- a big reason why they're just two games out of first place.

Dodgers' first-half grade: B-
- Could be better, but still only two games out of first place.

Here is a grade breakdown for each player on the roster with explanations for most (grouped by position).

Catcher
Russell Martin
- Started off hot and some thought he might get back to his 2007 or even 2008 self, but a .236 batting average combined in May, June and July has led Martin to a .244/.346/.332 first half. He's been decent behind the plate defensively. Grade: D+

Infield
James Loney
- Loney has been the most consistent Dodger hitter this season, as he's having one of his best seasons as a pro. At the All-Star break, he has a .309/.361/.442 line with a team-leading 63 RBI, 25 doubles, 104 hits and a surprising nine stolen bases. And he has played Gold Glove-caliber defense at first base this season. Grade: B+

Blake DeWitt
- DeWitt earned the starting job in spring training, but only because the Dodgers didn't have a better option. He started off struggling on defense, but has improved a little as the season progressed. He isn't going to win any Gold Gloves, though. He also hasn't hit for any power (.370 SLG), but he has been one of the more patient Dodger hitters, with an 11.1 BB percentage. Grade: C-

Rafael Furcal
- He is having his best season as a pro, despite spending some time on the disabled list and losing his father on Father's Day. Furcal is the catalyist of this team and as he goes, so go the Dodgers. Grade: A

Casey Blake
- After a solid 2009 (18 HR, 79 RBI, .832 OPS), Blake has regressed. He has a .259/.339/.427 line this season. He has a 109 OPS+, which is still better than league-average, but the Dodgers are probably expecting (hoping) for a little more from "Teh Beard." Grade: C-

Outfield
Manny Ramirez
- Ramirez started off a little slow this season, even spending some time on the DL between the end of April and beginning of June. He started to heat up in June, putting up a .366/.441/.598 line before injuring his hamstring against the Giants. He is due back immediately following the All-Star break. Grade: B

Matt Kemp
- Kemp started out on fire, leading the majors in home runs at one time. He looked like a lock for the NL All-Star team after May. However, a poor June (.230/.286/.380) got him off-track and prompted many (idiots) in the media to speculate the Dodgers trading the guy with the most potential on the team. Kemp got benched for three games toward the end of June, which seemed to light a fire under him. His baserunning has improved and he looks like the old Matt Kemp in center field. Grade: B-

Andre Ethier
- Ethier was the hottest hitter in the majors until he broke the pinky on his right hand in batting practice on May 15. He was hitting .392/.457/.744 -- which led the National League. He has since returned to Earth (a bit), but he's still hitting .324/.379/.553 with an OPS+ of 152. Grade: A-

Starting Rotation
Clayton Kershaw
- The kid has been the unquestioned ace of the Dodger staff. He leads the team in almost every major pitching category: ERA (2.96), innings (112.1), strikeouts (128), wins (nine), strikeouts per nine innings (10.3) and ERA+ (131). He deserved to be in Anaheim for the All-Star Game, but he could use the well-deserved time off. Grade: A

Hiroki Kuroda
- Kuroda started the season well with a 2.36 ERA in April. He had a rough May (4.42 ERA) followed by a good June (2.67 ERA). He is the veteran presence on the staff will be relied upon to have a solid second half. Grade: B-

Chad Billingsley
- Billingsley started off slow, as he had a 4.85 ERA in April. He had a good month of May (3.00 ERA) followed by a rough June (6.11 ERA), which led to a stint on the DL. He's had two solid starts in July thus far and there's no reason to expect anything else for the rest of the season. He does need to do a better job of keeping runners off base (1.39 WHIP on the season). He seems to be pitching to contact more, as his BB/9IP has decreased from last season (3.9 to 3.2), but his H/9IP has increased (7.9 to 9.3). That might not be all bad. Grade: C+

Vicente Padilla
- Padilla, the Opening Day starter, had a horrific April (6.65 ERA), but has been absolutely nails since returning from the DL. In his last five games, he has gone an average of 6.8 innings with a 2.38 ERA and a terrific 0.76 WHIP. I don't expect him to keep up this pace, but he should be a fixture in the Dodger rotation for the rest of the season. Grade: B

John Ely
- Ely, acquired from the White Sox in the Juan Pierre trade, like many Dodgers, had a fast start. By the end of May, he was 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and only six walks allowed in his first six starts. However, he hit a roughy patch. He then had a couple good starts (at Anaheim and San Francisco) before getting smacked around in two starts against the Marlins and Cubs. He was recently sent back to AAA, but he should be back to the majors soon. He is, after all, a rookie. Grade: C

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
- Save for a disasterous game against the Yankees, Broxton has been dynamite this season. He is headed to Anaheim for the All-Star Game -- his second consecutive appearance -- and owns a 2.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 12.9 K/9IP and 19 saves. He has been great. Grade: A-

Hong-Chih Kuo
- Kuo's talent has never been questioned -- and he was rewarded for it this year with a trip to the All-Star Game. He has a 0.99 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 11.9 K/9IP. He is one of the best left-handed relievers in the game. Grade: A-

Travis Schlichting, Grade: B
Jeff Weaver, Grade: B-
Ronald Belisairo, Grade: C+
Justin Miller, Grade: C+
Carlos Montasterios, Grade: C+
Charlie Haeger, Grade: D+
Ramon Troncoso, Grade: D
Ramon Ortiz, Grade F
Russ Ortiz, Grade: F
George Sherrill, Grade: F
Scott Elbert, Grade: INC
Jon Link, Grade: INC

Bench
Jamey Carroll, Grade: B
Garrett Anderson, Grade: F
Reed Johnson, Grade: C
Xavier Paul, Grade: C
Ronnie Belliard, Grade: C-
A.J. Ellis, Grade: C-
Brad Ausmus, Grade: INC
Nick Green, Grade: INC
Chin-Lung Hu, Grade: INC

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Best move for the Dodgers? No move

As the July 31 trade deadline approaches, a flurry of action is bound to happen. Cliff Lee, the top prize in this year's trade market, was traded to the Texas Rangers on Friday.

The Dodgers were said to be in on Lee, but the Mariners wanted a package of James Loney or Chad Billinglsey plus prospects. The M's did get a nice return on Lee, acquiring first baseman Justin Smoak and three prospects. That's better than the Indians did last season when Lee was shipped to Philadelphia.

So what should the Dodgers do to improve the pitching staff? Not a damn thing, unless they're willing to take on money.

However, it's clear Frank McCourt's financial situation will not allow the Dodgers to do so, which makes it all but impossible to land a difference-making starting pitcher. Roy Oswalt would be nice, but he's owed the rest of his $15M salary for this season, $16M in 2011 and a club option for $16M in 2012 (with a $2M buyout). Needless to say, Oswalt won't be a Dodger anytime soon.

Dan Haren would be even nicer. He's signed to a reasonable contract (still too much for the Dodgers to add) and would cost a lot in prospects.

Other than that, there aren't many top-of-the-rotation starters available. The Dodgers should just stand pat with budding ace Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley.

The bullpen has been an issue this season. Last season's deadline acquisition, George Sherrill, has been absolutely dreadful. He currently owns a 7.32 ERA and 2.24 WHIP. Is there any way the Dodgers could have Josh Bell back?

Ronald Belisario just went on the restricted list due to substance abuse. Belisario was a surprise last season, when he had an ERA of 2.04 and 1.15 WHIP. He seemed to be finding his 2009 form before hitting the restricted list.

Ramon Troncoso, who threw 82 2/3 innings of solid relief for the Dodgers last season, has a 5.15 ERA and was optioned to AAA earlier this week.

That leaves two reliable relievers in the pen: All-Star Jonathan Broxton and All-Star snub Hong-Chih Kuo. The Dodgers are reluctant to throw Kuo on consecutive days and Broxton is already being overworked.

Ned Colletti's MO has been to trade for relief pitching near or at the deadline (Sherrill in 2009, Scott Proctor in 2007), but there is really no need to do it this season. Kenley Jansen is lighting it up in AA, while James McDonald and Josh Lindblom could be recalled from AAA to be servicable middle relievers. These guys wouldn't cost the Dodgers prospects or money.

Now if the Dodgers surprise everyone and are able to take on payroll, then go for it. Make a play for Roy Oswalt or Dan Haren. The Diamondbacks are not opposed to trading within the division -- especially with the Dodgers.

The Dodgers acquired Steve Finley in 2004 and came really close to getting Randy Johnson in the same deal. The next off-season, the Dodgers acquired Dioner Navarro and prospects for Shawn Green.

What would it take to get Haren? Well, let's just say no one in the Dodger farm system should be untouchable. The one guy I'd be most reluctant to deal is Aaron Miller. Others would say Dee Gordon, but I really like Miller.

But that's just a pipe dream. The Dodgers should just stand pat and go with what they have. If they make the playoffs, great. Maybe they can make it back to the NLCS or even further. If not, then the Dodgers will be able to focus on 2011.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Midseason Top 15 Prospects

This is my midseason Top 15 Dodgers' prospect list. The numbers in parenthesis are the rankings from my post-2009 season rankings.


1. LHP Aaron Miller (5)
- Aaron Miller is definitely living up to his draft slot. Miller has a 2-5 record, but his peripherals are great. He has a 2.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.9 K/9IP and 2.13 K/BB ratio. He started the season at High-A before being promoted to AA.

2. SS Dee Gordon (1)
- Gordon's numbers are down just a tad. His fall from No. 1 is mostly due to Miller's improvement and not Gordon's play. He still projects as a top-of-the-order basestealing threat with good defense at shortstop. He has 30 stolen bases in AA this season.

3. RHP Chris Withrow (3)
- Withrow holds serve at No. 3. He had a slow start in AA, but he's come on as of late. He currently owns a 4.69 ERA and 8.5 K/9IP. He still projects as a No. 2 starter and should be in line for a late-seaosn promotion to AAA.

4. RHP Allen Webster (9)
- Webster is just 20 years old and is dominating at Low-A. He's 8-5 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.6 K/9IP and a solid 2.85 K/BB ratio. He could get the call to High-A Inland Empire before the season ends. If he keeps up his impressive numbers, he has an outside shot of getting a taste of AA.

5. RHP Garrett Gould (13)
- Gould was hurt to start the season and has only thrown three games, so this ranking might be a tad aggressive. However, in 14 innings, he's struck out 12 batters and has a 1.93 ERA. He is only in the Pioneer League, so we'll see how he does when he gets promoted to more advanced leagues.

6. 1B/OF Jerry Sands (NR)
- Sands was drafted in the 25th round of the 2008 draft and had a slow start to his minor league career. He hit .205 in the Gulf Coast League. He followed that up with an impressive .315/.401/.618 line between rookie ball and A-ball in 2009. This season, he has absolutely torn the cover off the ball, hitting .332/.425/.664 between Low-A and AA. He has six home runs in 43 Double-A at-bats. The only reason he isn't getting more hype is because he is 22 and is just getting to AA. He could be a late bloomer. If so, that will only benefit the Dodgers.

7. OF Trayvon Robinson (10)
- Robinson came on really strong last season and has been solid this season. In AA, he is hitting .298 with a .376 OBP and 25 stolen bases. If he keeps up his current pace, it will be a second consecutive .800+ OPS season for a guy who has never been known for his power. He could solidify himself in the top five if he closes the season on a strong note.

8. RHP Kenley Jansen (28)
- This guy appears to be the real deal. He is dominating at AA, as he has a 1.23 ERA and 15.5 K/9IP ratio since being recalled from High-A. Overall, he owns a 1.35 ERA and 66 strikeouts in 40 innings of work. He could be in Los Angeles before too long.

9. RHP Ethan Martin (2)
- Martin is battling control issues. He is having trouble throwing strikes, as is evidence by his 5.3 BB/9 IP, 1.56 WHIP and 1.53 K/BB ratio. Martin still has some of the most talent and promise in the system and could re-solidify himself as a top-five prospect with a solid second half.

10. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (8)
- I'm a bit higher on Eovaldi than most. He has a mid-90s fastball, but he doesn't get as many strikeouts as he should. He is still developing his off-speed stuff. He is in High-A as a 20-year-old, so he's facing some advanced hitters. Eovaldi has shown his potential by throwing two complete-game shutouts and still has a low home run ratio, giving up just two this season.

11. OF/1B Andrew Lambo (6)
- Lambo started off the season on fire but has cooled off a bit since. He was suspended 50 games for violating MiLB's drug policy. Surprisingly, it wasn't amphetamines or performance-enhancing drugs. Nevertheless, this suspension doesn't quell the concern about Lambo's off-the-field behavior. It isn't a gross offense, but it's something worth keeping an eye on.

12. SS/2B Ivan De Jesus (9)
- It's just nice to see De Jesus playing. He is in AAA hitting .292/.330/.394. He has yet to get back to his 2008 numbers (.324/.419/.423), but he might just need some more time. Also, his fielding has taken a hit, as he's committed 15 errors this season. He still has an outside shot of becoming an everyday player in the big leagues.

13. OF Xavier Paul (15)
- I think Paul could take over for Manny Ramirez in left field next season. A few years ago, this would not have been possible. With the McCourts' financial issues, it almost seems like a certainty. He isn't going to hit 20 home runs or be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but he could be a serviceable third outfielder. At worst, he'll have a long career as a fourth outfielder.

14. OF Blake Smith (16)
- Drafted out of Cal in the 2009 draft, Smith is in Low-A right now putting up some solid numbers (.282/.360/.493). He could be ranked higher if he puts up these numbers against better competition. Many saw him as a pitcher, so he's making the transition to full-time hitter well so far.

15. OF Mario Songco (NR)
-Songco is similar to Smith, except he's a year younger and hitting a little better. Right now, Songco boasts a .309/.374/.498 line. He could be up for top-10 consideration with a strong second half; perhaps in AA?

Next five (in no order): RHP Josh Lindblom (4, AAA), RHP Rubby De La Rosa (NR, Low-A), RHP Brett Wallach (26, Low-A), RHP Matt Magill (NR, Low-A), RHP Elisaul Pimentel (NR, Low-A)

Quick analysis: Lots of right-handed pitching and outfielders, lack of lefties, catchers and infielders.

That's it for now. I'll have another prospect ranking edition following the season. Go Blue!

Monday, July 5, 2010

All-Star thoughts

Ethier to start, Broxton makes second straight team

Andre Ethier and Jonathan Broxton will represent the Dodgers at the 2010 MLB All-Star Game on July 11.

Ethier was voted to start in right field, while Broxton was selected by the team's manager, Philadelphia's Charlie Manuel.

There were a couple other Dodgers worthy of consideration -- Rafael Furcal and Clayton Kershaw. Furcal has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball for the last month, while Kershaw is anchoring the staff as a 22-year-old.

Surprisingly, Furcal has never made an all-star team. Kershaw will before his career is through.

There was some support for Hong-Chih Kuo, who is perhaps the best left-handed reliever in the majors, but he was beaten out by Arthur Rhodes of the Reds.

If Matt Kemp had not had a horrific month of June, he would have certainly been considered.

There was one huge head-scratcher on the NL side...

How in the world did Omar Infante make the all-star team? Really?

A utility player from the Braves hitting an empty .309 makes the team over some other worthy candidates. That is just a travesty.

This is the process, unfortunately. Guys like Ryan Howard will be chosen by his manager over a more deserving candidate, namely Joey Votto, the NL leader in OPS.

It looks like the AL is going to take home-field in the World Series.