The Dodgers, Matt Kemp and a trade

Matt Kemp is possibly the most talented position player the Los Angeles Dodgers have ever had. His raw talent and ability is second to none. He was once compared to Manny Ramirez with much, much better defense while coming up through the minors.

So why do I get the sinking feeling he will not be a Dodger in 2011 and beyond? There are a lot of reasons:

• His "I don't care" attitude, blown way out of proportion by the media
  
• Ned Colletti seemingly just does not like the guy
• Dave Stewart, his agent, made some disparaging comments about Colletti's criticism
• Kemp, despite being locked in at an affordable rate, is getting nearly a $3 million raise
• The divorce proceedings of the McCourts are no help
• He is the most valuable trade chip this side of Clayton Kershaw and Andre Ethier

The Washington Post reported the Nationals would have interest in Kemp if he were made available. You don't say? Who wouldn't be interested in an immensely talented 26-year-old center fielder coming off a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger in 2009?

In spite of all this, I'd say there's better than a 50 percent chance Kemp is traded this off-season. The only way I'd agree with such a move is if it brought equal value in return. However, that is never the case with a player coming off a down season.

Kemp, with his top-10 NL MVP voting finish in 2009, was primed for a huge season. He started off the 2001 campaign on fire only to fizzle out and finish with a .249/.310/.450 line. His strikeout rate increased, all his averages decreased and one of the most alarming stats -- his stolen base percentage plummeted. After going 69-for-88 (78.4 percent) in his last two seasons, he was 19-for-33 (57.6 percent) this season.

Trading Kemp would be a step backward for the Dodgers. He is far from the problem on a team that disappointed greatly this season. The numbers show it was a fluke. He even predicted a 40-40 season in 2011. This is assuming the Dodgers wouldn't get close to fair value.

Now, if the Cardinals come to the Dodgers and say, "We'll give you Albert Pujols in a deal involving Matt Kemp, James Loney and prospects," the Dodgers would be foolish not to explore a deal. But how likely is that?

A deal that could make sense for the Dodgers is a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Rays' principle owner Stuart Sternberg said the team will cut payroll significantly. The Rays had a $72 million payroll this season. Sternberg wants that number around $50 million. The Rays are losing expensive veterans in Carl Crawford (who would look great in Dodger Blue, but that's a pipe dream), Rafael Soriano and Carlos Pena.

Still, the Rays would need to trim some salary.

So what about this proposal:

To Tampa Bay: Matt Kemp, Kyle Russell

To Los Angeles: B.J. Upton, Matt Garza

Why this works for Tampa: Garza made $3.35 million in 2010 and that number will go up (potentially to $6 or $7 million). Upton made $3 million in '10 and, like Garza, could see his salary jump to the $6 to $7 million range, annually. The Rays have a glut of young pitchers ready to take Garza's spot in the rotation -- Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann (the latter two would move up in the rotation). Kemp would replace Upton in center field. Plus, Upton has had his work ethic called into question on more than one occasion. Kemp is slated to make $6.95 million in 2011 before one final year of arbitration. They also get a big-time power-hitting prospect in Russell.

Why this works for L.A.: Upton is incredibly talented -- perhaps even more than Kemp -- but he has yet to put it all together. However, his glove in center field would be an upgrade over Kemp. Garza could replace free agents Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly and/or Vicente Padilla. The Dodgers, despite the ownership issues, are still in a better position to add salary than the Rays.

But back to reality. If a deal like the one outlined above went down, I don't think I'd be totally against it or pissed off. But with Kemp coming off a poor season, the Dodgers would have to view a deal that's close to equal value as a miracle.

I'm prepared for the Dodgers to trade Kemp. I probably won't agree with it, but I have mentally prepared myself for the seemingly inevitable day when I read on Twitter, "Kemp traded to TEAM." And you can bet when that day comes, I'll be here to bitch about the move -- or praise it. Yeah, right.

Dodger season ends, off-season awaits

First of all, my apologies for the tardy post.

The Los Angeles Dodgers' miserable season finally ended with an 80-82 record. After being in the NLCS the previous two seasons, this season left quite the bad taste in the fans' mouths. We're not used to the season ending at the beginning of October -- at least, not for the last couple seasons.

Many fans knew the season was over by the trade deadline, but it's too bad management didn't see it the same way. But, it's time to look toward the off-season. It begins with Don Mattingly taking over for Joe Torre. Mattingly began coaching his first games in the Arizona Fall League this week. While I'm not exactly thrilled with the managerial decision, I'm willing to give him a chance.

This off-season, clouded by the McCourt divorce proceedings, will be interesting. It isn't likely the team will add much payroll but will the Dodgers trade some of their arbitration-eligible players? More specifically, will they trade Matt Kemp?

There were reports last week saying the Washington Nationals would be interested in Kemp if he were "made available." I truly feel Kemp will not be a Dodger come 2011, even though it would be a foolish move on management's part. If the Dodgers can get fair value -- which isn't likely -- then trading him would be less painful. I will have an extended look at Kemp and his trade value in a future post.

Also in future posts, I will breakdown the off-season as I did last year in a four-part series.

It's going to be an interesting off-season. General Manager Ned Colletti is going to have to get creative, which doesn't bode well for the Dodgers or their fans. We'll see what happens.

Check back soon for my off-season preview series. Comments and Twitter followers are greatly appreciated.

Mattingly to replace Torre and Dotel trade

The Los Angeles Dodgers announced Friday Don Mattingly will in fact succeed Joe Torre as the Dodgers' manager, starting in 2011.

I'm suspect of this move for one main reason -- Mattingly has been an assistant under Joe Torre for quite some time. My fear is Mattingly picked up some of Torre's terrible habits, namely the mismanagement of the bullpen and pitching staff overall. That is Torre's biggest flaw as a manager and it'd be easy for Mattingly to follow suit.

I'm willing to give him a chance as Dodger manager, but Tim Wallach, the Dodgers' Triple-A affiliate manager, would have been my No. 1 choice.

It seems the Dodgers are lacking fire from the top. I mean, the last "fiery" manager the Dodgers had was Tommy LaSorda. Glen Hoffman? No. Bill Russell? No. Davey Johnson? No. Jim Tracy? No. Grady Little? Certainly not.

I'm not saying Wallach would be an Ozzie Guillen-like manager (in terms of fire), but at least it would show the Dodgers not being afraid to try something new. However, they are, in a way, trying something new, as Mattingly has no managerial experience at any level. He is going to manage in the Arizona Fall League, so that's a start.

The plan was for Mattingly to succeed Torre as manager when the two came to L.A. three years ago, but my enthusiasm for the move dwindled in that time.

We'll see what happens. The Dodgers have yet to recover from not hiring Mike Scocia when they had the chance.

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Dodgers ship Dotel to Rockies

Octavio Dotel was traded to the Colorado Rockies on Friday for a player to be named later.

What can be said about this? This is flat-out a moronic move. Ned Colletti has made some bad moves in his time, but this one could eventually take the cake.

So the Dodgers traded James McDonald -- a guy who could have done the same, if not better than Dotel in the 18 2/3 innings he pitched for L.A. -- and their 2009 No. 1 prospect in Andrew Lambo for a player to be named later? That's absolutely brilliant. No wonder the Dodger minor league system is so incredibly thin.

Dotel is ineligible for the postseason roster, so the return is going to be quite minimal.

To think, the Dodger roster decisions are going to be made by a guy who made this trade for the foreseeable future. That saddens and infuriates me as a Dodger fan.

The initial trade was baffling, so what does that make this? It's called incompetence.

The Dodgers' ownership issues are a big problem, but the biggest problem may lie right under that Ned Flanders-esque mustache in the Dodger front office.

Forgive me for this rant, but there's really no eloquent way for me to sum up this move.

It's a frustrating time to be a Dodger fan and there appears to be no bright spots in sight.

2010 Los Angeles Dodgers All-Prospect Team

Since just thinking about the major league club makes me sick to my stomach, I figured it's probably more worth my time to write about prospects -- at least for the rest of the season.

The Dodgers had some surprising performances from their minor leaguers this season, as well as some disappointment. Each position will be represented.

Here is my 2010 Dodger All-Prospect team.

Catcher: Jeremy (J.T.) Wise, 24, Low-A
.309/.363/.505, 12 HR, 62 RBI
- With the trade of Lucas May in July, Wise became the Dodgers' best catching prospect. The former Big 12 Player of the Year has put up some solid numbers in his career, but there is reason to be skeptical. He turned 24 in June and has yet to be tested at the upper levels of the minor leagues. However, he produced in college and could be a late bloomer. The 2011 season will determine whether or not Wise is a legitimate prospect.
Second team: Tony Delmonico (23, Rookie-Arizona/High-A)

First Base: Jerry Sands, 22, Low-A/Double-A
.301/.395/.586, 35 HR, 93 RBI
- Sands is the best Dodger power prospect since Paul Konerko. Sands played mostly at first base this season, while also seeing significant time in left and right field. His production fell off a bit with the promotion to Chattanooga, but he still hit 17 home runs and put up an .889 OPS, which is something to be encouraged about. With James Loney not progressing as many want or expected, there's a real chance he could reach the majors as Loney's replacement.
Second team: Austin Gallagher (21, High-A)

Second Base: Ivan DeJesus, Jr., 23, Triple-A
.296/.335/.405, 7 HR, 70 RBI
- I've always thought DeJesus was ticketed for second base and this year proved to be the year he made the move, playing 114 games at the position this season. He missed all but four games in 2009 after breaking his leg in Spring Training. It was nice to see him on the field for an entire season. If the Dodgers don't bring back Ryan Theriot, DeJesus could get a look for the 2011 second base job.
Second team: Jaime Pedroza (23, Double-A)

Third Base: Russell Mitchell, 25, Triple-A/Majors
.315/.363/.535, 23 HR, 87 RBI
- Mitchell had a breakout season in 2010, even earning a trip to the big leagues. Mitchell could also be a late bloomer, or his numbers could be a product of the thin air of the Pacific Coast League. Casey Blake is in the twilight of his career and Mitchell could be a stopgap until the Dodgers find a long-term replacement. Of course, they've been looking for that replacement since Ron Cey.
Second team: Pedro Baez (22, Rookie-Arizona/High-A/Double-A)

Shortstop: Dee Gordon, 22, Double-A
.277/.332/.355, 10 3B, 53 SB
- Gordon is still the Dodgers' best prospect, but his production dipped a bit in 2010. The most alarming stat is his on-base percentage, which dropped 30 points from his 2009 campaign. Some think he'll be ticketed for Triple-A, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him start next season in Double-A before earning a promotion.
Second team: Justin Sellers (24, High-A/Triple-A)

Left Field: Mario (Angelo) Songco, 21, Low-A
.274/.344/.446, 15 HR, 71 RBI
- Songco is one of my favorite prospects and he was producing quite well until he hit a late-season skid. A fourth-round pick last season, Songco didn't have the best debut, but he had a solid sophomore season. There's reason to be excited about him, as he'll have a chance to vault into prospect stardom next season.
Second team: Alfredo Silverio (23, High-A/Double-A)

Center Field: Trayvon Robinson, 22, Double-A
.300/.404/.438, 9 HR, 57 RBI
- Robinson has established him as the Dodgers' best outfield prospect (if you count Sands as a 1B prospect). After a breakout 2009 season, Robinson needed to prove it wasn't a fluke. Facing higher competition, he definitely proved he's legitimate. He doesn't have the strongest arm, but he could stick in center field. The most impressive stat: He raised his on-base percentage 31 points from his 2009 mark. The kid is for real.
Second team: Brian Cavazos-Galvez (23, Low-A)

Right Field: Jonathan Garcia, 18, Rookie-Ogden
.305/.365/.527, 10 HR, 40 RBI
- Garcia could be the Dodgers' best position prospect under 20 years old. His debut last year was impressive and similar to this season's numbers (.304/.362/.500), and he repeated it against slightly more advanced competition. Garcia has the ability to play center field but he might be best suited to play right field. I'm really excited for this kid.
Second team: Blake Smith (22, Low-A)

Right-Handed SP: (Carl) Allen Webster, 20, Low-A
12-9 W-L, 2.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
- This was the toughest decision of all. A lot of people would put Rubby de la Rosa here, and while I really like him as a prospect, I think Webster might be the better prospect in the long run. Webster put up some impressive numbers in Low-A as a 20-year-old. The 2008 18th-round pick is quickly establishing himself as one of the Dodgers' best prospects. One thing to watch is the number of ground outs he induces, as the number dropped from 1.66 GB/FB last year to 1.18 this year. Still solid, but it could be a result of advancing through the minors.
Second team: Rubby de la Rosa (21, Low-A/Double-A)

Left-Handed SP: Aaron Miller, 22, High-A/Double-A
7-8 W-L, 3.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
- Miller was dominating at High-A before getting promoted to Double-A around midseason. However, his time in Double-A was short and forgettable. He had a couple of bad starts which led to an ugly 7.04 ERA, 2.00 WHIP and 7.0 BB/9 line. However, he just finished his second season and is not only the Dodgers' best left-handed prospect, but he's their best pitching prospect overall. He will need to bounce back at Double-A in 2011.
Second team: Greg Wilborn (23, Rookie-Pioneer/Low-A)

Right-Handed RP: Kenley Jansen, 22, High-A/Double-A/Majors
Majors: 1.02 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 14.8 K/9
Minors: 1.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 15.6 K/9
- Jansen was the talk of the 2009 Arizona Fall League and was absolutely dominant in the minors before earning a trip to the big leagues in July. He had an unbelievable 15.6 K/9 ratio in the minors and is nearly matching that in 17 2/3 Major League innings. He is the Dodgers' future closer without a doubt.
Second team: Justin Miller (22, Low-A/Double-A)

Left-Handed RP: Cole St. Clair, 23, High-A/Double-A
4.21 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.2 K/9
- This was slim pickins, as it came down to St. Clair and Andrew Suiter. St. Clair gets the nod for being in Double-A. Drafted in the seventh round of the 2008 draft, St. Clair had his roughest season in 2010, but still posted a good K/9 ratio and a solid 8.7 H/9 mark.
Second team: Andrew Suiter (23, Low-A)

There you have it. Chime in with your thoughts here or on Twitter.