In the first of a nine-part series, I preview the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen heading into the 2011 season.
RHP Ronald Belisario
- I made a post about Belisario nine days ago, saying I think he'd have a bounce-back season. He could end up being an important 6th- or 7th-inning reliever for the Dodgers. His stuff is nasty and his ability to get ground balls (58.5 percent for his career) is crucial when the Dodgers need a double play.
RHP Jonathan Broxton
- We all know Big Bad Jon struggled mightily after June 27. He still made the All-Star team and closed out the win for the National League. We all know what happened in the World Series. Anyway, I'm one of the only people left in Broxton's corner, it seems. He's the No. 1 scapegoat of all the Dodger pitchers -- even more than the "gutless" Chad Billingsley (love ya, Chad!). I haven't made many predictions, but I'm predicting Broxton gets back to his 2006 through the first three months of the 2010 season. He will make folks forget about the horrific 29 2/3 innings last year. He will re-establish himself as one of the game's best closers.
RHP Matt Guerrier
- In one of the biggest head-scratchers of the off-season, the Dodgers have Guerrier a 3-year contract. The guy is durable, which is a plus. However, if that's his best quality, the Dodgers definitely overpaid. He was consistent in Minnesota. Coming to the National League should help him, but that isn't always the case. He'll be a 7th-inning guy for the Blue.
RHP Kenley Jansen
- Jansen was dominant at every stop he made last season. With an electric fastball and a nasty slider, Jansen will be a key player in the Dodger 'pen. He'll serve as a 7th- and 8th-inning guy for the Dodgers, with the chance to snake a save opportunity from Hong-Chih Kuo and Jonathan Broxton every once in a while.
LHP Hong-Chih Kuo
- Kuo had one of the greatest seasons any Dodger reliever has ever had. He was rewarded with an All-Star berth and the chance to take over for Broxton when he faltered in 2010. Kuo's inability to pitch on consecutive days is the only thing keeping him from being mentioned among the league's best relievers (even though he still is). He could step in as the part-time closer, if needed.
RHP Vicente Padilla
- Padilla re-signed with the Dodgers in the off-season, despite not being guaranteed a spot in the rotation. He was the team's 2010 Opening Day starter (for some reason). Padilla got on a role in 2010. From April 16 to Aug. 10 (12 starts, due to injury), Padilla went 6-2 with a 2.42 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and a .188 BAA. He was flat-out dominant.
However, he's slated for long relief this season with the Dodgers -- a role in which he could thrive. There's even talk of him getting a save opportunity every once in a while. He has the stuff, but the Dodgers have a few other relievers capable of closing.
Guys in the mix
The 25-man roster is far from being set, so here are some guys competing for the last bullpen spot (assuming the Dodgers go with a 12-man pitching staff, as they're prone to do).
LHP Scott Elbert
- Elbert had a tumultuous season in 2010, which ended when he took a leave of absence from the Albuquerque Isotopes. He had a great Arizona Fall League showing and was primed to lock up the last spot in the Dodger 'pen. However, the signing of Mahay could spell the end of that. Elbert, like Troncoso, will likely begin the season in Triple-A because he has options remaining.
RHP Blake Hawksworth
- Hawksworth was acquired from the Cardinals for Ryan Theriot. At the time, we all knew it was amazing a team gave up anything for "The Riot," but to get a potential decent (which I use loosely) reliever was good for the Dodgers. However, he's out of options and isn't exactly the favorite to win the last opening. If he's to remain a Dodger, he'll have to be lights out in Spring Training or slip through waivers -- neither of which I see happening.
LHP Ron Mahay
- Mahay was signed just last week and could steal the last bullpen spot. He's a veteran LOOGY and had a decent season with the Twins in 2010. I'd bet a large amount of money he's the last guy to make the Dodger 'pen.
RHP Ramon Troncoso
- Troncoso had a decent debut in 2008 before having a better 2009 (though, not as good as some may think) before falling down a little in 2010. He isn't going to blow you away with his stuff, but his ability to get grounders is vital to his success. He had a bout with the home run ball, giving up seven last season. While that may not sound like a lot, just consider he gave up just five home runs in his first two seasons -- combined. His HR/9 rate jumped from 0.3 in 2009 to 1.2 in 2010. He'll likely start the season in Triple-A, as he has an option remaining. He could get a midseason call-up.
Analysis
The Dodgers are shaping up to have one of the best bullpens in baseball. However, that's contingent on everyone -- or almost everyone -- playing up to his potential. If Broxton returns to form, Kuo stays healthy and Jansen continues his dominance -- Kuo's health being biggest question mark of the three -- the Dodgers could boast the best bullpen back end in the majors.
Next up: Starting Rotation
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Dodger doings - Valdez, Miles, Young
I mistakenly omitted this from my last post, because it barely qualifies as news, but the signed former Giant RHP Merkin Valdez to a minor-league contract.
Valdez, at one time, was seen as a potential No. 2 starter or dominant closer when he was an up-and-coming prospect in the Giants' organization.
Last year, however, he put up an ugly 7.91 ERA , 2.03 WHIP and 14.3 H/9 in 58 innings for the Blue Jays' Triple-A affiliate.
Now you see why this barely qualifies as news. He's minor-league depth -- nothing more.
The Dodgers also inked utility infielder Aaron Miles to a minor-league deal. This was the Dodgers' counter to losing Eric Chavez to the Yankees.
Bravo.
He put up a .281/.311/.317 line in 79 games with the Cardinals last year.
This signing makes no sense. I know it's just a minor-league deal, but really? What can Miles do that a guy like Justin Sellers or Ivan DeJesus couldn't do? I will say, he's a better player than Juan Castro -- but that isn't saying much.
If I had to guess, Miles will win the 25th roster spot out of Spring Training just for the sake of having a veteran presence on the bench -- even if that presence has a .230/.265/.277 slash line over the last two seasons (321 plate appearances). He can also fill in at three infield positions, which is about his only plus. He's nothing more than roster fodder.
Then there's this whole Mike Young situation. While he looks like an upgrade on the surface, minimal digging will show Young is really not much of an upgrade over Casey Blake, even as Blake's production is declining.
The No. 1 concern is Young's home/road splits. He has benefited greatly from hitting at The Ballpark in Arlington his entire career.
As you can see, the splits are quite drastic. This should be an immediate red flag. Young, while a solid hitter, hits for minimal power on the road.
And his defense is bad. Since taking over as the Rangers' third baseman in 2009, he has put up consecutive years of negative UZR/150: -9.6 and -5.8. He also, somehow, won the American League Gold Glove at shortstop in 2008 with a -4.2 UZR/150.
By comparison, Blake's UZR/150 in the last two seasons are 13.1 and 7.7. While this defensive metric isn't the be-all/end-all, it's quite telling in this case.
Oh yeah, there's also the $48 million owed to Young over the next three years. That, along with the home/road splits, should just about end the Dodgers' interest in Young.
Valdez, at one time, was seen as a potential No. 2 starter or dominant closer when he was an up-and-coming prospect in the Giants' organization.
Last year, however, he put up an ugly 7.91 ERA , 2.03 WHIP and 14.3 H/9 in 58 innings for the Blue Jays' Triple-A affiliate.
Now you see why this barely qualifies as news. He's minor-league depth -- nothing more.
The Dodgers also inked utility infielder Aaron Miles to a minor-league deal. This was the Dodgers' counter to losing Eric Chavez to the Yankees.
Bravo.
He put up a .281/.311/.317 line in 79 games with the Cardinals last year.
This signing makes no sense. I know it's just a minor-league deal, but really? What can Miles do that a guy like Justin Sellers or Ivan DeJesus couldn't do? I will say, he's a better player than Juan Castro -- but that isn't saying much.
If I had to guess, Miles will win the 25th roster spot out of Spring Training just for the sake of having a veteran presence on the bench -- even if that presence has a .230/.265/.277 slash line over the last two seasons (321 plate appearances). He can also fill in at three infield positions, which is about his only plus. He's nothing more than roster fodder.
Then there's this whole Mike Young situation. While he looks like an upgrade on the surface, minimal digging will show Young is really not much of an upgrade over Casey Blake, even as Blake's production is declining.
The No. 1 concern is Young's home/road splits. He has benefited greatly from hitting at The Ballpark in Arlington his entire career.
As you can see, the splits are quite drastic. This should be an immediate red flag. Young, while a solid hitter, hits for minimal power on the road.
And his defense is bad. Since taking over as the Rangers' third baseman in 2009, he has put up consecutive years of negative UZR/150: -9.6 and -5.8. He also, somehow, won the American League Gold Glove at shortstop in 2008 with a -4.2 UZR/150.
By comparison, Blake's UZR/150 in the last two seasons are 13.1 and 7.7. While this defensive metric isn't the be-all/end-all, it's quite telling in this case.
Oh yeah, there's also the $48 million owed to Young over the next three years. That, along with the home/road splits, should just about end the Dodgers' interest in Young.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Reliever news - Kuo, Mahay
The Dodgers avoided arbitration with left-hander Hong-Chih Kuo yesterday, agreeing to a 1-year, $2.725 million deal, plus incentives.
Tony Jackson of ESPN LA has the details on the incentives. Kuo can earn as much as $700,000 in incentives, but most are for games-finished. If Jonathan Broxton re-gains his pre-July 2010 form, Kuo won't get a chance to cash in on the games-finished incentives.
Kuo's base salary comes in just under the median mark of $2.8125 million.
Kuo is one of the nastiest relievers in the game and at this price, he's well worth it.
The Dodgers also signed veteran LHP Ron Mahay to a minor-league deal today. Jon Heyman reported Mahay could earn $900,000 with the Dodgers.
Mahay's signing spells the end of Scott Elbert's and bid for the second lefty option out of the Dodgers' bullpen.
In 34 innings with the Minnesota Twins last season, Mahay had a 3.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 2.1 BB/9, 6.6 K/9 and a most impressive 3.13 K/BB ratio.
While my preference would have been to see what Elbert could really do as a full-time reliever, this isn't a bad deal -- especially on a minor-league contract. Mahay is a true LOOGY, holding left-handed hitters to a career .232 batting average and .689 OPS.
Mahay is almost a lock to make the Dodgers' 'pen, which leaves the aforementioned Elbert, Ramon Troncoso and Blake Hawksworth on the proverbial roster bubble.
Elbert and Tronocoso have options while Hawksworth is out of options. The Dodgers could try to slip Hawksworth through waivers before the start of the season, but I'm sure there's some team out there that would take a chance on him. He might not throw a pitch in Dodger Blue after being acquired for Ryan Theriot.
Some would say Belisario could be on the bubble, but in my last post, I thought he'd perform well enough to earn a spot in the 'pen.
No matter what, if the pitchers pitch to their capabilities, the Dodgers should boast one of the game's best bullpens in 2011.
#####
Lastings Milledge also signed a minor-league deal today with the Chicago White Sox. Milledge, who had been mentioned in the Dodgers' search for a left fielder, will get $500,000 if he makes the team with no incentives, as reported by Ken Rosenthal.
Milledge on a minor-league deal would have been a lot better than the trio affectionately known as "JaMarcus Gwybbons, Jr.," coined by Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness.
Tony Jackson of ESPN LA has the details on the incentives. Kuo can earn as much as $700,000 in incentives, but most are for games-finished. If Jonathan Broxton re-gains his pre-July 2010 form, Kuo won't get a chance to cash in on the games-finished incentives.
Kuo's base salary comes in just under the median mark of $2.8125 million.
Kuo is one of the nastiest relievers in the game and at this price, he's well worth it.
The Dodgers also signed veteran LHP Ron Mahay to a minor-league deal today. Jon Heyman reported Mahay could earn $900,000 with the Dodgers.
Mahay's signing spells the end of Scott Elbert's and bid for the second lefty option out of the Dodgers' bullpen.
In 34 innings with the Minnesota Twins last season, Mahay had a 3.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 2.1 BB/9, 6.6 K/9 and a most impressive 3.13 K/BB ratio.
While my preference would have been to see what Elbert could really do as a full-time reliever, this isn't a bad deal -- especially on a minor-league contract. Mahay is a true LOOGY, holding left-handed hitters to a career .232 batting average and .689 OPS.
Mahay is almost a lock to make the Dodgers' 'pen, which leaves the aforementioned Elbert, Ramon Troncoso and Blake Hawksworth on the proverbial roster bubble.
Elbert and Tronocoso have options while Hawksworth is out of options. The Dodgers could try to slip Hawksworth through waivers before the start of the season, but I'm sure there's some team out there that would take a chance on him. He might not throw a pitch in Dodger Blue after being acquired for Ryan Theriot.
Some would say Belisario could be on the bubble, but in my last post, I thought he'd perform well enough to earn a spot in the 'pen.
No matter what, if the pitchers pitch to their capabilities, the Dodgers should boast one of the game's best bullpens in 2011.
#####
Lastings Milledge also signed a minor-league deal today with the Chicago White Sox. Milledge, who had been mentioned in the Dodgers' search for a left fielder, will get $500,000 if he makes the team with no incentives, as reported by Ken Rosenthal.
Milledge on a minor-league deal would have been a lot better than the trio affectionately known as "JaMarcus Gwybbons, Jr.," coined by Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Which Ronald Belisario will show up in 2011?
Ronald Belisario was one of the biggest surprises for the Dodgers in 2009. He threw 70 2/3 great innings, posting a 2.04 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.6 H/9, 8.2 K/9 and a 197 ERA+.
The Dodgers signed him as an minor-league free agent prior to the '09 season. He had decent success in the minors, but nothing like he did in 2009.
Prior to the 2010 season, he had visa problems which kept him in Venezuela for virtually all of Spring Training. After that, he was never able to get on track, posting a 5.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (not terrible), 8.5 H/9, 6.2 K/9 and a 76 ERA+.
Belisario has a heavy 92-96 MPH sinking fastball and a decent low-to-mid-80s slider. It's a solid repertoire for a potential late-inning reliever.
He had an outstanding showing in the Venezuelan Winter League. In 18 innings, he had a 1.00 ERA, 15/4 K/BB ratio and 14 saves.
So, which Ronald Belisario will the Dodgers get in 2011?
Odds are it won't be the '09 version, but it probably won't be the '10 version, either.
Ideally, Belisario will be a 6th- or 7th-inning guy for the Dodgers as he and Kenley Janse help bridge the gap to Hong-Chih Kuo and Jonathan Broxton.
The rotation has five guys all capable of throwing 180 innings (barring injury), so that should help to keep the Dodger bullpen fresh and good -- especially down the stretch.
Belisario will be a key component in the 'pen and barring anything unforeseen, he should perform reasonably well. A 70-inning, 3.00 ERA/1.20 WHIP season isn't out of the question.
The Dodgers are setting up to have a really nice bullpen. Another lefty is a must, especially with Kuo's past injury concerns. Scott Elbert could be that guy, if he has his head on straight and the Dodgers are willing to give him a shot.
The Dodgers signed him as an minor-league free agent prior to the '09 season. He had decent success in the minors, but nothing like he did in 2009.
Prior to the 2010 season, he had visa problems which kept him in Venezuela for virtually all of Spring Training. After that, he was never able to get on track, posting a 5.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (not terrible), 8.5 H/9, 6.2 K/9 and a 76 ERA+.
Belisario has a heavy 92-96 MPH sinking fastball and a decent low-to-mid-80s slider. It's a solid repertoire for a potential late-inning reliever.
He had an outstanding showing in the Venezuelan Winter League. In 18 innings, he had a 1.00 ERA, 15/4 K/BB ratio and 14 saves.
So, which Ronald Belisario will the Dodgers get in 2011?
Odds are it won't be the '09 version, but it probably won't be the '10 version, either.
Ideally, Belisario will be a 6th- or 7th-inning guy for the Dodgers as he and Kenley Janse help bridge the gap to Hong-Chih Kuo and Jonathan Broxton.
The rotation has five guys all capable of throwing 180 innings (barring injury), so that should help to keep the Dodger bullpen fresh and good -- especially down the stretch.
Belisario will be a key component in the 'pen and barring anything unforeseen, he should perform reasonably well. A 70-inning, 3.00 ERA/1.20 WHIP season isn't out of the question.
The Dodgers are setting up to have a really nice bullpen. Another lefty is a must, especially with Kuo's past injury concerns. Scott Elbert could be that guy, if he has his head on straight and the Dodgers are willing to give him a shot.
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