Matt Guerrier vs. Jesse Crain and why the Dodgers chose wrong

I haven't bitched about Matt Guerrier for a while, so I figure it's time (you're next, Juan Uribe).

Everyone and their mother was surprised when the Dodgers signed Guerrier to a 3-year, $12 million deal. Needless to say, I was not a fan.

"On the surface, Guerrier looks like a decent pickup. Then you factor in his age (32), the number of games pitched (most in baseball after Pedro Feliciano) and his low K/9 rate (5.9 for his career) and it isn't a great deal.

And most of all, the contract. Why on God's green earth is Guerrier getting a 3-year deal? It's not like right-handed middle relievers are rare. This just makes no sense.

Ned Colletti strikes again. There is absolutely no need to dump $4 million a year (though I'm sure some will be deferred) on a middle reliever. Guerrier has a nice ERA for his career (3.38), but his peripherals are not great.

The only good thing is Guerrier has been better the past two seasons than he has his entire career. He has a 2.75 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 2.34 BB/9 in his last two seasons. However, his K/9 is less-than ideal (5.4)."

Guerrier has done little to prove me (and others) wrong. He owns a 3.90 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 1.85 K/BB ratio. He has struck out batters at a better clip in his first 32 1/3 innings as a Dodger (6.7) and has yet to allow a home run, but that's about it. He's been mediocre, something which many expected.

Which leads me to Jesse Crain, Guerrier's former teammate with the Twins. Crain, who is three years younger than Guerrier, signed a 3-year, $13 million deal with the White Sox. I'm not advocating the signing of middle relievers to 3-year deals, but if the Dodgers were so hellbent on signing a reliever to a 3-year deal, it should have been Crain, not Guerrier.

Crain has performed much better than Guerrier while pitching in a tougher hitter's league and a hitters park.

Crain bests Guerrier in almost every major pitching category:

• 3.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 8.7 K/9 and a 1.87 K/BB ratio

Not only that, but Crain's pure stuff is much, much better than Guerrier's.

I know, hindsight; shoulda, woulda, coulda; I get it. But this just shows the ineptitude of the mustachioed one making personnel decisions for the Dodgers.

I'm hoping Guerrier can improve, but this is probably what Dodger fans should expect for the next two-plus years.

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A couple weeks ago, I wrote a post about Garrett Gould and how he was back. Well, he's done nothing to make that post look foolish. Gould is one of the best pitchers in the Midwest League and could very well be in line for a promotion after the league's All-Star Break.

When I release my midseason top 15 prospect list in a few weeks, Gould is almost certainly going to be in my top five after starting the season at No. 13.

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Old friend and former Feelin' Kinda Blue mancrush Cory Wade was released by the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday and was signed Monday by the Yankees. At first, I thought Wade might have been released due to performance, but was alerted that he had been pitching well in Triple-A:

• 2-1, 1.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 1.5 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 5.67 K/BB ratio

The Rays have one of the best 'pens (statistically) in baseball, so why release a guy who is dominating Triple-A? Wade had an opt-out clause for June 15. If the Rays didn't add him to the active Major League roster, they would have to release him.

Well, the Yankees wasted no time scooping him up. He should get back to the majors sometime this season.

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Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness wrote on Saturday it's time to give A.J. Ellis a chance. It's a good read and makes a lot of sense.

Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. wrote Aaron Miles has "the emptiest .300 batting average in Dodgers' history."

Roberto Baly of Vin Scully is my Homeboy has all the coverage you need on Vin Scully's damaged Hollywood Walk of Fame star.

Kenny Shulsen of Lasorda's Lair has a nice interview with former Dodger Tommy John.

Andre Ethier is still in fourth place, Matt Kemp fifth among National League outfielders in All-Star balloting. Ryan Braun, Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday are leading the way. No other Dodgers are in the top five at any position (unsurprisingly).

Scott Elbert finally ready to live up to potential?

When Scott Elbert left Triple-A Albuquerque last season for "personal reasons," his prospects of being a successful Major Leaguer were dim. This season, however, he's shown (in limited work so far) he might be ready to turn the proverbial corner.

Before his outing Thursday, Elbert had not given up a run in 7 2/3 innings of work. He struck out eight batters, walked three and gave up four hits. Colorado got to him a little this weekend, but he did record his first career save on Sunday.

Despite his ugly ERA (5.63), he owns a 10.1 K/9 and 7.9 H/9 rate. He does need to exhibit better control (5.9 BB/9), but when Hong-Chih Kuo comes back, which could be soon, Elbert should not be optioned back to Triple-A. He's exactly what the Dodgers need -- another left-handed option out of the 'pen.

Most of all, Elbert just needs extended time in the Majors. He needs a chance to be a reliable reliever for the Dodgers. This up-and-down stuff isn't going to help matters.

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Rubby De La Rosa is awesome. He earned his third win of the season on Sunday by holding his own in Colorado. He got off to a rough start -- giving up three in the first inning on a Seth Smith home run -- but calmed down and and threw four scoreless innings. He came out for the sixth but left after one pitch with a forearm cramp. He isn't expected to miss his next start (Saturday). However, a former flame-throwing Dodger prospect had forearm issues that ultimately led to his being traded -- Edwin Jackson. Here's hoping it's nothing serious.

Matt Kemp is out of this world. He hit his National League-leading 20th home run today. He is the early favorite for June Player of the Month in the NL. Here's hoping the fans come to their sense and vote him in as a starter fore the All-Star game. He deserved to go two years ago when Phillies' manager Charlie Manuel selected an inferior Shane Victorino instead of Kemp.

One way or another, James Loney is going to be a Rockie before his career is over. I tweeted something after today's game:

"If Todd Helton unexpectedly retires this offseason, the #Rockies should go after James Loney. He loves hitting in Coors: .902 OPS #Dodgers"

My numbers were off. He now has a career .935 OPS in Coors, counting Sunday's grand slam. Loney has struggled mightily this season, but here's hoping this sparks him. In reality, it's not going to happen, but you never know. Unless he goes absolutely nuts for the rest of the season, he could be in another jersey next season -- or even as soon as July 31, provided he has any trade value whatsoever.

One thing that hasn't struggled is his glove. Loney is a plus defender and is one of the best at digging throws out of the dirt.

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Trayvon Robinson is riding a hot streak in Albuquerque. He went 5-for-6 on Sunday and is on a 14-game hitting streak. He's hit .390/.432/.610 in his last 10 games and has a .900 OPS on the season. He isn't too far away from a call-up.

Jerry Sands returned to Triple-A and hasn't skipped a beat. He's gone 5-for-11 with two doubles, two RBI, four walks and two strikeouts in three games. We have not seen the last of the Sandman this season in Los Angeles.

Clayton Kershaw struggles in Coors, but who doesn't?

A Twitter comment about Clayton Kershaw needing to be a better pitcher on the road to be considered elite got me thinking: what are his numbers on the road and what are they if you take out Coors Field?

Here are the answers (including Thursday's performance):

Career on the road
48 G, 3.64 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.11 BB/9, 8.89 K/9, 2.16 K/BB ratio

Not bad, not bad at all. By comparison, here are some other elite lefties' numbers on the road:

Cole Hamels - 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Cliff Lee - 4.16 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Jon Lester - 3.76 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
David Price - 4.23 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.1 K/9
CC Sabathia - 3.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.1 K/9

As you can see, Kershaw's numbers are pretty comparable against a lot of the best LHPs in baseball.

Career at Coors Field
9 G, 5.69 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 9.7 H/9, 1.5 HR/9, 4.41 BB/9, 9.55 K/9, 2.17 BB/K ratio

It isn't exactly breaking news that a pitcher struggles in the launching pad in Denver.

Career on the road, sans Coors
35 G, 3.07 ERA, 1.24 ERA, 7.1 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 2.17 K/BB ratio

So to say he needs to pitch better on the road to be elite isn't exactly accurate. He needs to pitch better at Coors Field, that's for sure. But what pitcher doesn't?

Eovaldi, Russell enjoying nice seasons for Chattanooga

Dodgers' RHP Nathan Eovaldi is enjoying a great season at Double-A Chattanooga after having just a mediocre season in 2010 in three levels of the minors.

Eovaldi, who ranked No. 8 on my 2010 Dodger prospect list and No. 28 in my 2011 list, has proven me wrong. As a 21-year-old in the Southern League, he is mostly facing competition who is older than him, but he's been dominant at times. This is quite encouraging for his progress and could even see some time in L.A. later this season (I mean, who woulda thunk Javy Guerra would be in the Dodger bullpen right now?).

Through 11 games (10 starts, one relief appearance), Eovaldi is 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 10.3 K/9 and a 2.81 K/BB ratio. In his lone relief appearance on Tuesday, he fired one relief inning, striking out one and reportedly hitting 101 MPH on the radar gun.

Eovaldi sits in the low-to-mid-90s as a starter with a decent curveball. He's made a little progress with his changeup, but it's probably what will keep him from being a successful starter in the majors.

However, his two-pitch combination -- especially with an upper-90s fastball -- could play very well out of the bullpen.

Kyle Russell, 24, is also enjoying a nice season at Double-A. The former third-round choice from Texas, Russell has 12 home runs, 20 2B and 38 RBI in 59 games this season -- good enough for a .909 OPS. Last season in 76 Southern League games, he was able to OPS .781 with 10 home runs and 23 2B.

The problem with him -- always has been, always will be -- is his K-rate. Last season, he struck out 37.5 percent of his at-bats. This season, he's actually improved to 35.4 percent. But that's still way too high for a Major League regular. That's actually between the career K-rate of Adam Dunn (33.1 percent) and Mark Reynolds (38 percent). Russell does play excellent defense in right field, so his power/defense combo could be enough for him to be a bench player at worst in the bigs.

One thing that concerns me is he's 24 (25 on June 27) and still in Double-A. It's not the worst thing in the world, but I'd like to see the Dodgers push him to Triple-A (despite the high K-rate) to see if there's any hope for him as a regular. It might be a little hasty on my part, but if he goes to Albuquerque and succeeds, he could be in the mix next season or used as a trade piece.

In all likelihood, though, he'll reach the majors as a part-time player.

The Lookouts' roster has improved with Allen Webster and Shawn Tolleson being promoted and Kenley Jansen returning on a rehab assignment. Some would say Jansen could benefit from some time in the minors to work on his secondary offerings. That isn't the worst idea, especially with Guerra, Scott Elbert and Josh Lindblom (in limited time) holding their own in the Dodgers' bullpen.

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Dee Gordon made his Major League debut this week and so far, so good. He's 3-for-8 with two runs scored and a stolen base. Despite looking like a bat boy, he is the most exciting prospect the Dodgers have and manager Don Mattingly said he's going to play every day (I wish he'd make the same commitment to Jerry Sands). Update 2:37 p.m.: Well, it looks as if Sands will be playing every day... but in Albuquerque. He was optioned to Triple-A with the Dodgers recalling Trent Oeltjen. Sands will be back.

Pure speculation here, but perhaps the Dodgers are not sold on Rafael Furcal's health for the rest of the season. It's nice to see a lot of prospects on the team, though. Six players have made their debut this season: Ivan DeJesus, Rubby De La Rosa, Gordon, Guerra, Lindbolm and Sands. It's entirely possible for guys like Eovaldi, Trayvon Robinson and Russell to make their debuts later this season.

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The Dodgers begin a four-game series in Colorado tonight. Expect a lot of frustration, even with Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley and Rubby De La Rosa pitching three of the four games.