Monday, July 11, 2011

2011 Dodgers' mideseason analysis and grades

The 2011 season has been one to forget for the organization. The team is not playing well on the field and everything with the McCourt saga is just draining.

The Dodgers finished their first 92 games (which qualifies as the first half) with a 41-51 record, good for fourth place in the National League West -- 11 games back of the division-leading Giants. Unfortunately, there isn't much hope in sight for this team. There are a couple of standout players, a few good ones and a lot of mediocre (at best) players. That isn't a recipe for success.

Without further adieu and to go along with Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness and Jim Bowden of ESPN (video), here are my grades.

Dodgers' first-half grade: D
- Despite ending the first half on a four-game winning streak, this team is not much fun to watch. As is usually the case, the team cannot score enough runs. Pitching was supposed to be the backbone of this team, especially after signing four starting pitchers (Garland, Kuroda, Lilly, Padilla) this off-season. The club has been hit with an abnormal amount of injuries and disabled list-stints, which plays a part in the poor performance. Even if everyone was healthy, the Dodgers, as currently constructed, are a .500 team. If the season ending today, the Dodgers' would have the No. 7 pick. The last time they had the No. 7 pick, they picked some kid named Kershaw.

Here is a grade breakdown for each player on the roster with explanations for most (grouped by position).

Catcher
Rod Barajas
.220/.262/.385
- We all cringed when General Manager Ned Colletti handed Barajas a $3.25 million contract for one good month. Despite playing just 56 games so far, he is second on the team in home runs (eight). He's been average, at best, defensively this season. Grade: D

Infield
James Loney
.268/.311/.342
- Loney had a fantastic first half last season. He followed that up by one of the worst second halves in all of Major League Baseball. He started stunningly slow this season, hitting just .170/.194/.213 through April 25. Since the 25th, though, he's hit .307/.357/.394, so there is some hope for him going forward, despite the lack of power (doubles included). Grade: D+

Jamey Carroll
.297/.368/.366
- Carroll has been consistent for the Dodgers in 2011. He's not going to hit for power, but he has a nice on-base percentage and has filled in at shortstop admirably for the injured Furcal. He's been one of the few bright spots on this team. Grade: B+

Juan Uribe
.207/.273./.306
- Uribe's signing was by far the worst of the off-season -- and he's done nothing to make the doubters think twice. His batting average and slugging percentage are career-low marks, while his on-base percentage is the second-lowest of his career. The only saving grace was he brought some pop (40 HRs the last two season). This season: four home runs. Grade: F

Casey Blake
.243/.346/.386
- Blake has struggled with injuries, which shouldn't be surprising for a 37-year-old who shouldn't be an everyday player in the Major Leagues. After a DL stint to start the season, he got off to a quick start: .319/.427/.522 through his first 18 games. Then the nagging injuries kicked in and his numbers in June quickly made his great .949 OPS look pedestrian: .169/.222/.271 (.744 OPS for the season). Grade: D+

Aaron Miles
.318/.337/.381
- Miles was thought to be a throw-away signing by everyone. While he's still not a good player, he's been a lot better than anyone could have expected. His .318 average is empty, but at least he's hitting that well. He hasn't been horrible on defense, either. Grade: B-

Rafael Furcal
.185/.227/.228
- Furcal was supposed to be the catalyst for the offense. In the last year of his deal, he was looking to have a big season. But he, like many other Dodgers, has been bitten by the injury bug. He hasn't produced much in his limited playing time. He's currently rehabbing and should be back soon. Grade: D-

Outfield
Jerry Sands
.200/.294/.328
- Sands made his MLB debut in May, and it was unexpected. The 23-year-old started slow (2-for-18 in his first five games) before looking like he was on track. He hit a mammoth grand slam in Houston on May 24, which was the high point of his first half. He followed that up with a 3-for-33 stretch to earn a triple back to Albuquerque. Still, his OBP is 94 points higher than his batting average and he's hit well since returning. There's a lot to be excited about with him. Grade: C

Matt Kemp
.313/.398/.584
- Kemp is an MVP candidate. He's had the best first half of any player on this team and arguably anyone in the National League. He is sixth in the NL in batting average, tied for second in home runs (22), second in slugging (.584), third in OPS (.982), second in OPS+ (178) and he leads the NL in total bases (198). He ranks first in Baseball Reference's WAR ratings (5.7) and third in FanGraphs' WAR ratings (4.4). He's also increased his walk rate to 12.2 percent this season after being at 7.8 and 7.9 the last two seasons. He is one of two main reasons to keep watching this team. Grade: A+

Andre Ethier
.311/.383/.463
- Ethier got off to a torrid start in 2010 -- .392/.457/.744 -- before suffering an injury to his pinkie finger. He got off to a great start this season, which included a 30-game hitting streak. However, his power numbers are down. He has just nine home runs in 288 at-bats. He hit a home run every 25.3 at-bats coming into the season. In 2011, that number is down to 36.4, thanks to two home runs on Sunday. The Dodgers need his power to return. He still has a good batting average and a great on-base percentage. Grade: B

Starting Rotation
Clayton Kershaw
9-4, 3.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
- Kershaw has been downright dominant at times -- including his last two starts. He had a couple of rough starts at the beginning of this month, but he's found his groove and made his first All-Star team. He leads the Majors in strikeouts (147) and K/9, but two of his most impressive statistics are his BB/9 (2.4) and K/BB ratio (4.2). He has three complete games and two shutouts. And on a bright note, he is second amongst pitchers in hits (11) and a sparkling 8.9 percent K-rate. Grade: A

Chad Billingsley
8-7, 3.87 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
- Billingsley signed a contract extension before the season started, which was great. His April, however, was not so great -- 4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP. But he did have his best start of the season in that month against the Cardinals on April 17 (8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 K, ND). He had a great May, despite going 2-3 in the month -- 2.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 -- before struggling a bit in June. His last four starts (3-1, 1.32 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, .183 BAA) has lowered his season ERA back under 4.00 for the first time since June 5. The Dodgers need more out of him, though. Grade: C+

Hiroki Kuroda
6-10, 3.06 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
- Kuroda has been one of the unluckiest pitchers on the team. Despite the second-best ERA of all the starters, he's still lost 10 of his 16 decisions. He could (should) be a trade candidate in about a month. He's given up the long ball at a higher rate than any in his career (0.94 HR/9 in 2011, 0.7 in 2008-10). That's something to watch in the second half. Grade: B

Ted Lilly
6-9, 4.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
- Lilly was acquired last July and pitched pretty well for the Dodgers (7-4, 3.52 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). He was signed, foolishly, to a 3-year deal in the winter. So far, he hasn't lived up to the contract. His walk rate is great (1.9 BB/9), but that's about it. His H/9 is at 9.8 -- 2.1 higher than 2010 -- and he's given up 19 home runs. Grade: D+

Jon Garland
1-5, 4.33 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.7 K/9
- Garland was a somewhat surprise signing in the off-season and looked like a steal. However, he hasn't been healthy. He's been on the disabled list twice this season -- twice more than any other time in his career. Some teams were concerned about the health of his shoulder in the off-season, but that didn't deter the Dodgers from signing him. His best start came against the Braves in April (9 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K), and he's had a few other solid starts. Grade: C-

Rubby De La Rosa
3-4, 3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
- De La Rosa was another surprise call-up and had a couple of good starts, a couple of bad starts and a couple more good starts, including his best as a pro on on Saturday (6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 8 K). Still, as a 22-year-old, he's going to have his ups and downs. He needs to improve his control. His innings will be limited come August and September. Grade: C

John Ely
6.23 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
- He made two appearances (one start). He's struggling in Triple-A. Grade: INC

Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
1-2, 5.68 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 7 SV
- Word just came down today that Broxton will be shut down for three more weeks and he might not pitch again this season. He didn't exactly inspire confidence in his 14 games this season, posting a 5.68 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 10.7 H/9, 6.4 BB/9, 7.1 K/9 and a 1.11 K/BB ratio. He clearly hasn't been right physically since last season and his best days might be behind him. Grade: D-

Blake Hawksworth
2-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
- Hawksworth, acquired for Ryan Theriot in the winter, has been a solid performer for the Dodgers. He isn't going to strikeout a lot of guys, but he's getting the job done right now. He's been the most consistent reliever for the Dodgers in the first 92 games. Grade: B

Kenley Jansen
1-1, 4.40 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 14.1 K/9
- Jansen was great in his 2010 debut and was expected to do big things out of the Dodgers' bullpen this season. He got off to a shaky start, spending some time on the DL and in the minors. Despite all that, he has a most impressive K/9 rate. Since April 22 (20 appearances), he has a 1.64 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 14.3 K/9 and a .120 BAA. It's safe to say he's back on track. Grade: C-

Mike MacDougal
0-1, 1.74 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.1 K/9
- Don't let the shiny ERA fool you, MacDougal has been pedestrian at best this season. His WHIP is high, his K/9 is low and his K/BB is poor. He has done a good job of not giving up home runs (one in 31 innings). Don't expect that ERA to stay under 3.00 for too long. Grade: C

Josh Lindblom, Grade: B
Javy Guerra, Grade: B
Scott Elbert, Grade: B-
Vicente Padilla, Grade: C+
Matt Guerrier, Grade: D+
Lance Cormier, Grade: F
Hong-Chih Kuo, Grade: INC

Bench
A.J. Ellis, Grade: C
Tony Gwynn, Grade: C
Jay Gibbons, Grade: C-
Dee Gordon, Grade: C-
Trent Oeltjen, Grade: C-
Marcus Thames, Grade: D+
Ivan DeJesus, Grade: D-
Dioner Navarro, Grade: D-
Juan Castro, Grade: F (thank goodness he recently retired)
Russ Mitchell, Grade: F
Hector Gimenez, Grade: INC
Jamie Hoffmann, Grade: INC
Xavier Paul, Grade: INC

Thursday, July 7, 2011

This Dodger team is bad, but 2005 was worse

Well, at least 2005's team (71-91, Pythagorean 74-88) felt worse.

The Dodgers (37-51, Pythagorean 39-49) are struggling and with General Manager Ned Colletti still on the proverbial fence about whether to be buyers or sellers (only Colletti would entertain buying), the team isn't giving him much reason to buy or the fans much reason to buy tickets.

Coming into the season, a lot of folks knew this Dodger team wasn't as good as previous incarnations (2008 and 2009, in particular). But with Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, fans were expecting better.

Alas, this is what they have: a team that's 14 games under .500 and has the fourth-worst record in all of baseball -- which led to this tweet on Monday:
"If the season ended today, the would have the No. 4 pick in the 2012 MLB Draft. "
To be fair, this team has been riddled with injuries. Rafael Furcal, Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo -- all key cogs in the team's success the past few year -- have all spent significant time on the disabled list. Coupled with Jon Garland giving the Dodgers nine starts before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury -- the same shoulder that prevented teams from signing Garland to a multi-year deal.

Guess we shoulda seen that one-a-comin'.

Vicente Padilla, utility pitcher extraordinaire, is out for the season. Casey Blake has been on the DL twice and the team's starting catcher, Rod Barajas, is on the shelf.

Despite all the negativity surrounding this franchise off the field, the team on the field still has talent and is much more talented than the '05 version.

The Dodgers were fresh off their first playoff appearance since 1996 and first playoff victory since 1988 (behind the heroics of Jose Lima, who wasn't retained, in Game 3 of the NLCS).

It was Jeff Kent's first season as a Dodger, and he was by far the team's MVP -- .289/.377/.512 with 29 home runs, 105 RBI and 100 runs scored. It was also J. D. Drew's first season, and he was putting up great numbers through his first 72 games -- .286/.412/.520, 15 HR, 36 RBI -- before getting hit by a pitch, effectively ending his season. Milton Bradley, fresh off a career-high in games played in 2004 (141), played 75 games. Derek Lowe also made his Dodger debut, posting a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

The team had nearly 60 comeback wins in 2004 and things started off great in 2005. The Dodgers were 22-10 after the first 32 games, including an 8-7 come-from-behind win against the Diamondbacks on April 8. Jose Valentin pinch-hit in the ninth inning with the bases loaded and two outs. He got down 0-2 and, as if he had magic from the previous year's team, banged a grand slam off Brandon Lyon, who hung a curveball (some things never change). I exclaimed, "I'll never give up on these guys," because if felt like '04 all over again.

And that's about where the good ends.

Hee Seop Choi had an amazing four-game stretch, one that is since unmatched for the Dodgers, but he became the most polarizing figure since, well, ever, I suppose. Jayson Werth was coming off injury and wasn't the Jayson Werth he is now. Cesar Izturis had a great first two months of the season (.345/.392/.426), leading to an All-Star berth, before suffering an injury that derailed his season and in effect, his career.

Brad Penny struggled with nagging injuries to log just 175 1/3 innings. As the expected ace of the staff, that wasn't enough. Oddly enough, Jeff Weaver pitched a team-high 224 innings, and was pretty effective.

Are you ready for the real fun?

I know 2005 wasn't that long ago, but when you sit through a season like that, you don't want to remember it. So, I'm here to jog you memory (I apologize in advance).

The '05 squad, much like the '11 squad, had a bunch of players who wouldn't make 2/3 of Major League rosters today (I'm probably a little conservative with that number). Let me name the names:

Buddy Carlyle
Chin-Feng Chen
Mike Edwards
Scott Erickson
Jason Grabowski
Brian Myrow
Norihiro Nakamura
Franquelis Osoria
Jason Phillips
Oscar Robles

All of these guys really had no business being Major Leaguers. If this were Hollywood (wait, isn't it?), they would have all banded together, become best friends after a few spats, overcome the incalculable odds to make it to the playoffs with many much fun and laughter along the way. But this was no comedy -- it was a horror flick.

Granted, some of the players didn't play nearly enough to have a substantial impact on the team's record, but the manner in which some were used was head-scratching and infuriating.

Robles logged 368 of his 399 plate appearances as the team's No. 1, 2 or 3 hitter. Phillips spent 36 PAs as the cleanup hitter, which is 36 PAs too many. Edwards played 88 games and gave the team well below-average production. Erickson, amazingly, started six games at age 37 and was terrible.

The '11 list of "Those who don't belong" isn't that long, but it is only July. We could see the likes of Randy Keisler, Merkin Valdez, JD Closser and Corey Smith before this season ends.

Yes, it is painful to watch the Dodgers today, but it could be worse. Of course, we had a glimpse of that on Tuesday when Aaron Miles hit in the No. 3 spot for the Dodgers. It brought back memories of Robles; memories I'd prefer not to relive.

Hey, at least the 2011 Dodgers have Kemp and Kershaw. If they didn't, they could be the most unwatchable team in sports.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Dodger blogger profile: Jared Massey (L.A. Dodger Talk)

This is the first in a series of profiles on those who blog the Dodgers. It's always interesting to hear the reasons for Dodger fandom and blogging.

This profile is on Jared Massey. He writes for L.A. Dodger Talk and is an expert in all things Dodger prospects. I have known him on Dodger message boards for a good 7-8 years.

1. How did you become a Dodgers' fan?
- I was born a Dodger fan. Went to my first game in the womb.

2. What got you into blogging?
- In 2004 I started following the Dodgers' minor leagues and would post nightly recaps on the Scout.com message board. After I cluttered a few threads, I created my own blog. Last year, Mark Timmons asked me to join LAdodgertalk.com and the rest is history.

3. What are some goals for your blog?
- I'd like to continue providing fans with a place to congregate and share ideas/celebration/misery. I'd also like to continue providing exclusive content, including analysis, interviews and in-depth minor league coverage.

4. What is the best experience you've had since blogging?
- Interviewing Logan White this spring was a great experience. I'd wanted to meet him since 2004 and spent an hour talking Dodgers with him and Mark. That was a lot of fun and very informative. White interviews: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, most recent interview

5. What is your most memorable in-person Dodger experience?
- Game 3 of the 2008 NLCS. It was the Dodgers' first NLCS win since '88. The crowd was amazing. There was electricity in the air.

6. How many Dodger games have you attended? At Dodger Stadium?
- Dozens. I used to go to several a year with my mom growing up.

7. Who is your all-time favorite Dodger player and pitcher?
- My favorite all time Dodger player is Jackie Robinson and my favorite all time Dodger pitcher is Clayton Kershaw.

8. What season of Dodgers' baseball do you remember most? Why?
- Probably 2004. It was the first year where I considered myself a hardcore fan and Finley's walk off grand slam against the Giants to clinch the division was a great moment in Dodger history. Plus, they won their first postseason game since '88 behind a complete game performance from the late Jose Lima.

9. Who is the Dodger you liked that no one else seemed to like?
- I was in the minority as a Hee Seop Choi supporter. I still remember his 7 homers in 4 games. Too bad Tracy never really gave him a chance.

10. What do the Dodgers need to do to win another World Series in your lifetime (save axing McCourt and Colletti)?
- The Dodgers need to continue developing players from within and retain their homegrown stars. Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw are two of the best players in baseball and should be retained at (nearly) any cost. Building around them is key, as recent contracts like the ones given to Ted Lilly and Juan Uribe hinder the club's ability to address immediate needs and fill holes going forward. Hopefully the organization will hang on to these elite talents and do a better job of surrounding them with talent in the future.

Monday, July 4, 2011

Hiroki Kuroda increases his value

When Hiroki Kuroda shut the Angels down on Friday night (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K), he not only beat the Dodgers' closest regional rival first time in his career, he subsequently increased his trade value.

According to a FOX Sports report, the Reds and Rockies had scouts at his June 25 start against the Angels. His line wasn't as good as Friday's performance (5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K), but it was still decent.

While the Angels' lineup is anything but Murder's Row, Kuroda still showed the ability to shutdown an American League lineup, which only increases his value on the trade market. His numbers in Interleague play are decent, despite the poor win-loss record (a worthless statistic anyway) -- 3-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 5.0 K/BB. The WHIP and K/BB should be most attractive to American League teams.

Kuroda's groundball rate has decreased from last season (1.59 to 1.23), but it's still a good rate. He's also throwing more split-fingered fastballs this season than any other in his career (14.7 percent). His fastball velocity is down a half-mile an hour, but that's to be expected from a 36-year-old starter with the mileage Kuroda has.

Kuroda is on pace to best his previous career-high in innings pitched (196 1/3 in 2010) with 206 2/3 IP. That coincides with his career-high in pitches per start -- 98.4 (career rate is 93.2). Despite his fastball velocity dropping slightly, he's shown the ability to throw more pitches and, conversely, more innings.

The Tigers are the most recent team to show interest in him.

Along with the Reds, Rockies and Tigers, the Yankees could be in the market for the stable veteran.

It's also been reported Diamondbacks' General Manager Kevin Towers likes Kuroda. The two clubs are no strangers to trades -- especially when one team is contending and the other isn't. The Dodgers almost acquired Randy Johnson in 2004 before settling on just Steve Finley. They also hooked up on the Shawn Green-for-Dioner Navarro deal (which is basically what it boiled down to) and the Jon Garland trade in 2009.

There is one big issue with trading Kuroda, though -- he has a full no-trade clause. It's been reported that he'd require some type of compensation to waive it.

The Dodgers are in last place the NL West. While that sucks, they're in last place with Kuroda. There is absolutely no sense in keeping him, if he's willing to go to a contender. The Dodgers could nab a solid prospect and a lower-level guy in return for him, despite Kuroda's unrestricted free agent status after the season.

Here's hoping GM Ned Colletti comes to his senses and realizes the only right move is for the Dodgers to trade anyone on the roster not named Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley or Rubby De La Rosa to get an infusion of good, young talent before the July 31 trade deadline (preferably a third baseman and/or catcher).

Who am I kidding? He'll probably end up trading a couple of high-level prospects for a damn middle reliever again.

#####

The Dodgers demoted Dee Gordon back to Albuquerque today. That isn't surprising, considering he struggled since getting off to a fast start. Still, in just 22 games, he is already third on the team in stolen bases (eight, trailing Kemp and Tony Gwynn). What is surprisingly is he was demoted for one of the worst baseball players in the sport.

No, I'm not talking about Juan Castro.

I'm talking about Eugenio Velez. Otis Anderson of Bay City Ball said it best:
"If I were to design a ballplayer for the express purpose of destroying franchises and ruining managerial careers, that player would resemble - in probably all ways except looks - Eugenio Velez."
Yeah.

Velez is putting up nice numbers in Albuquerque (.339/.371/.463), but that isn't saying much. He is a terrible defender (at 2B, in LF, where ever a manager puts him), he's a bad baserunner and he can't hit. Pretty much everything a Major League ballplayer should be able to do, Velez cannot.

Oh yeah, he's an ex-Giant. That should tell you all you need to know. Agent Colletti is at it again.