In a baffiling, yet unsurprising move, the Dodgers have acquired LHP Ted Lilly and INF Ryan Theriot from the Chicago Cubs for INF Blake DeWitt, RHPs Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit. The Cubs are picking up $2.5 million of the remaining $4 million of Lilly's contract.
We all knew it was coming and there's ample reason to be upset.
First of all, Lilly, while a solid starter, is not a difference-maker. I've been saying for a while the Dodgers should just stand pat. Apparently Ned Collettii & Co. think Lilly is going to be the guy who helps the Dodgers make up a 4.5-game deficit in the wild card and 7-game deficit in the NL West.
Lilly's velocity is down (86.1 MPH average on his fastball -- sixth-lowest in the majors), but is still posting a 3.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, despite a slightly increased BB/9 ratio (1.8 in 2009, 2.2 in 2010) and a decrease in K/9 (7.7 in '09 to 6.8 in '10) and BB/K (4.19 in '09 to 3.07 in '10) ratios.
Theriot is a utility infielder with a decent .284 batting average. And that's about it. He has a 69 OPS+ (league-average is 100) and a negative Wins Above Replacement rate of -0.8. He adds absolutely nothing and does nothing better than the guy he was traded for -- Blake DeWitt.
As if trading DeWitt for Theriot wasn't bad enough, the Dodgers also traded a solid RHP pitching prospect in Wallach. He is the son of former Dodger and current Dodger Triple-A manager Tim Wallach. I had Brett rated in my mideseason top 20 after having him rated No. 26 after last season. A 2009 third-round pick, Wallach was 6-0 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in Low-A as a 21-year-old (22 in December). He had a ceiling of a No. 3 starter, or basically what Lilly is right now. He was making a strong push for my top 15, but the Dodgers felt the need to trade him for another middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Smit is enjoying his first bit of success in the minors this season, with a 2.35 ERA between High-A and Double-A (three innings in Double-A). He's 22 and is likely slated for middle relief, if he makes it to the show.
Grading the trade: D
- This is precisely the type of move I did not want the Dodgers to make -- nor did they need to make it. Lilly is a minimal upgrade to the rotation and will not help this team reach the playoffs. And despite being a Type-A free agent after the season, the Dodgers, based on their recent history, are not likely to offer him arbitration, which means no draft pick compensation. The DeWitt-for-Theriot swap makes zero sense and losing Wallach in this trade is not good.
The Dodgers also traded RHP James McDonald and OF/1B Andew Lambo to the Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP Octavio Dotel and $500,000.
WHAT?! Are you freaking kidding me?
I'm sorry, but this trade makes no sense. The Lilly/Theriot acquisitions made more sense than this.
Kenley Jansen was the bullpen arm the Dodgers needed -- and they didn't have to give up any prospects to get him.
Colletti has done it again. McDonald has had his ups-and-downs with the Dodgers, but he has been really solid out of the bullpen. Lambo was the Dodgers' No. 1 prospect at the beginning of 2009. While he dropped in the rankings (was No. 6 at the end of last season and No. 11 earlier this month in my rankings), he still has potential and was one of the best pure hitters in the Dodgers' system.
Dotel strikes out a lot of hitters (10.8 per 9 innings), but he has a 4.28 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 3.8 BB/9 (which is actually down from 5.2 in '09). He's a decent reliever, but definitely not worth McDonald and Lambo.
Grading the trade: F
- This trade is atrocious. Dotel is a mediocre reliever who got a premium return in trade. Hell, the Dodgers gave up more for Dotel than they did for Lilly! This is just frustrating. But hey, they got another proven veteran to come out of the bullpen, right? He's going to help the Dodgers make the playoffs. ARGH!
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Friday, July 30, 2010
If the Dodgers were sellers...
Let me preface this by saying these absolutely no way the Dodgers end up selling, even though it would be the right move. Here is what I would do if I were the Dodgers. It won't be pretty for the rest of this season, but it would set the Dodgers up for future success.
Untouchable players: Clayton Kershaw
- Other than Kershaw, everyone else is up for grabs. However, that doesn't mean the Dodgers would or should trade the likes of Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley or Matt Kemp.
Deals I would make
To Yankees: RHP Jonathan Broxton
To Dodgers: C Jesus Montero, LHP Jeremy Bleich
- This works because the Yankees are looking for a guy to bridge the gap to Marino Rivera. New York was rumored to have offered Montero for Soria. Broxton is a free agent after 2011 (making $7M next season) and a third-place team should sell high on an elite closer. Broxton is the Dodgers' most valuable trade piece this side of Kershaw.
To Rays: OF/DH Manny Ramirez
To Dodgers: LHP Jacob McGee
- I alluded to this in an earlier blog posting. The Rays are looking for a bat, as they've been rumored to be after Adam Dunn. The sticking point here would be Ramirez's inability to play. Ramirez has been on the disabled since early July and hasn't proved he's healthy. However, that doesn't mean a trade couldn't be reached after the July 31 deadline. McGee might be too much to get in return, but I'm aiming high.
To Red Sox: SS Rafael Furcal and C Russell Martin
To Dodgers: INF Jed Lowrie, RHP Manny Delcarmen, 1B Anthony Rizzo, C Luis Exposito
- Furcal is riding quite the hot streak and if the Dodgers were ever going to trade him, they'd do it now. He's owed $12 million next season with a $12 million club option for 2012 (vests with 600 plate-appearances in 2011). With Montero, the Dodgers could afford to move Martin, who is firmly entrenched in a three-year slump. He still has solid on-base abilities and is a decent defender behind the dish. The move would allow the Red Sox to put Victor Martinez at 1B (when he comes back) and move Youkilis over to 3B. The Dodgers would get Lowrie, who would bridge the gap to Dee Gordon, a bullpen arm in Delcarmen, a solid 1B prospect in Rizzo and catching depth in Exposito.
To Twins: 3B Casey Blake, cash ($1.25M to cover 2012 buyout)
To Dodgers: 1B/OF Chris Parmalee
- The Twins were the Dodgers' only other competitior for Blake's services in the winter of 2008. Minnesota currently has 25-year-old Danny Valencia playing at 3B. He's doing well, but he's a rookie. Blake would provide them a veteran at the corners (infield & outfield) in case some younger guys falter. Parmalee is a big kid, but hasn't quite lived up to his potential (Twins' 2006 first-round pick). A change of scenery could work for him.
To Cardinals: RHP Hiroki Kuroda
To Dodgers: LHP Sam Freeman, C Bryan Anderson
- The Cards are looking at Jake Westbrook, but Kuroda would be a much better acquisition. Kuroda can be a free agent after the season. A 1-4 of Wainwright-Carpenter-Garcia-Kuroda could do some damage in the playoffs. There's no guarantee he's going to stay in the states, so the Dodgers should look to get something for him. Also, the minor league catching depth has been addressed in these trades. Freeman is strictly a reliever. Looks like a potential LOOGY.
Like I said, it wasn't going to be pretty. The Dodgers would be moving a bunch of quality veterans and replacing them with unproven youngsters. But that's what rebuilding is all about. Not only that, the Dodgers would free up some money, which would make McCourt happy, but could also lead to more activity in the free agent market (perhaps a run at Carl Crawford in the winter).
Not only that, but it strengthens a weak minor league system (ranked No. 24 by Baseball America coming into the season).
You might be saying to yourself, "This is something Royals or Pirates would do, not the Dodgers." The reality is, the Dodgers aren't much better than the Royals or Pirates as an organization right now. The owner and general manager are treating this time like it's in a small market. This is the sad, sad reality.
So, to totally go against what I just wrote, the Dodgers will likely waste resources (prospects) on a Ted Lilly or Paul Maholm and a reliever in the next 21 hours.
Untouchable players: Clayton Kershaw
- Other than Kershaw, everyone else is up for grabs. However, that doesn't mean the Dodgers would or should trade the likes of Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley or Matt Kemp.
Deals I would make
To Yankees: RHP Jonathan Broxton
To Dodgers: C Jesus Montero, LHP Jeremy Bleich
- This works because the Yankees are looking for a guy to bridge the gap to Marino Rivera. New York was rumored to have offered Montero for Soria. Broxton is a free agent after 2011 (making $7M next season) and a third-place team should sell high on an elite closer. Broxton is the Dodgers' most valuable trade piece this side of Kershaw.
To Rays: OF/DH Manny Ramirez
To Dodgers: LHP Jacob McGee
- I alluded to this in an earlier blog posting. The Rays are looking for a bat, as they've been rumored to be after Adam Dunn. The sticking point here would be Ramirez's inability to play. Ramirez has been on the disabled since early July and hasn't proved he's healthy. However, that doesn't mean a trade couldn't be reached after the July 31 deadline. McGee might be too much to get in return, but I'm aiming high.
To Red Sox: SS Rafael Furcal and C Russell Martin
To Dodgers: INF Jed Lowrie, RHP Manny Delcarmen, 1B Anthony Rizzo, C Luis Exposito
- Furcal is riding quite the hot streak and if the Dodgers were ever going to trade him, they'd do it now. He's owed $12 million next season with a $12 million club option for 2012 (vests with 600 plate-appearances in 2011). With Montero, the Dodgers could afford to move Martin, who is firmly entrenched in a three-year slump. He still has solid on-base abilities and is a decent defender behind the dish. The move would allow the Red Sox to put Victor Martinez at 1B (when he comes back) and move Youkilis over to 3B. The Dodgers would get Lowrie, who would bridge the gap to Dee Gordon, a bullpen arm in Delcarmen, a solid 1B prospect in Rizzo and catching depth in Exposito.
To Twins: 3B Casey Blake, cash ($1.25M to cover 2012 buyout)
To Dodgers: 1B/OF Chris Parmalee
- The Twins were the Dodgers' only other competitior for Blake's services in the winter of 2008. Minnesota currently has 25-year-old Danny Valencia playing at 3B. He's doing well, but he's a rookie. Blake would provide them a veteran at the corners (infield & outfield) in case some younger guys falter. Parmalee is a big kid, but hasn't quite lived up to his potential (Twins' 2006 first-round pick). A change of scenery could work for him.
To Cardinals: RHP Hiroki Kuroda
To Dodgers: LHP Sam Freeman, C Bryan Anderson
- The Cards are looking at Jake Westbrook, but Kuroda would be a much better acquisition. Kuroda can be a free agent after the season. A 1-4 of Wainwright-Carpenter-Garcia-Kuroda could do some damage in the playoffs. There's no guarantee he's going to stay in the states, so the Dodgers should look to get something for him. Also, the minor league catching depth has been addressed in these trades. Freeman is strictly a reliever. Looks like a potential LOOGY.
Like I said, it wasn't going to be pretty. The Dodgers would be moving a bunch of quality veterans and replacing them with unproven youngsters. But that's what rebuilding is all about. Not only that, the Dodgers would free up some money, which would make McCourt happy, but could also lead to more activity in the free agent market (perhaps a run at Carl Crawford in the winter).
Not only that, but it strengthens a weak minor league system (ranked No. 24 by Baseball America coming into the season).
You might be saying to yourself, "This is something Royals or Pirates would do, not the Dodgers." The reality is, the Dodgers aren't much better than the Royals or Pirates as an organization right now. The owner and general manager are treating this time like it's in a small market. This is the sad, sad reality.
So, to totally go against what I just wrote, the Dodgers will likely waste resources (prospects) on a Ted Lilly or Paul Maholm and a reliever in the next 21 hours.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Oswalt traded to Philadelphia
Houston's RHP Roy Oswalt was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies today for LHP J.A. Happ, OF Anthony Gose and SS Jonathan Villar. The Phillies are also getting $11 million to cover the remaining $23-$24 million left on his contract.
Really?
The return is about as bad, if not worse, than what the D-Backs got for Dan Haren.
What did the Phillies do to deserve all this good fortune? Why are teams willing to bend over backwards to get a trade done with Philadelphia, but they ask for the world from the Dodgers (i.e. Kemp, Loney, etc.)?
So the Phillies traded an overrated LHP in Happ and two Class-A prospects for one of the best pitchers available this trade season. Wow.
The media always throws the Dodgers' farm system under the bus for not having quality prospects at the higher levels, yet these other teams can trade Class-A prospects and people don't think twice about it? Give me a break.
Not only that, the Astros are sending $11 million. You're telling me the Dodgers couldn't somehow make this work?
I guess my trade scenarios for Oswalt were a bit much on the Dodgers' end, considering what Houston is getting in return.
I'm thinking a package of RHP John Ely/James McDonald, SS Ivan De Jesus and OF Trayvon Robinson or virtually any other OF in the Dodgers' system could have competed with the Philadelphia package. De Jesus and Robinson are far more advanced than the Phillies' prospects, but Ely/McDonald aren't as valued as Happ. Seems like a decent comparison, though.
The Phillies acquire a third ace in the last year and the Dodgers are left to pickup the leftovers (Lilly, Maholm).
I just don't know what to make of it sometimes. I mean, how can a team sit there with a straight face and ask for a Matt Kemp or James Loney in a package for Oswalt and then get this return?
The Dodgers' pursuit of a difference-making starter at the deadline is ended by the Phillies for a second consecutive year. And for a third consecutive year, the Phillies found a way to beat the Dodgers, even if they don't meet in the NLCS this year.
UPDATE: The Astros have traded Gose to Toronto for 1B Brett Wallace. That is an absolute steal for Houston. I'm not sure what the Jays are thinking with this trade. It makes the trade a lot better for Houston, but it doesn't excuse them bending over for the Phillies.
Really?
The return is about as bad, if not worse, than what the D-Backs got for Dan Haren.
What did the Phillies do to deserve all this good fortune? Why are teams willing to bend over backwards to get a trade done with Philadelphia, but they ask for the world from the Dodgers (i.e. Kemp, Loney, etc.)?
So the Phillies traded an overrated LHP in Happ and two Class-A prospects for one of the best pitchers available this trade season. Wow.
The media always throws the Dodgers' farm system under the bus for not having quality prospects at the higher levels, yet these other teams can trade Class-A prospects and people don't think twice about it? Give me a break.
Not only that, the Astros are sending $11 million. You're telling me the Dodgers couldn't somehow make this work?
I guess my trade scenarios for Oswalt were a bit much on the Dodgers' end, considering what Houston is getting in return.
I'm thinking a package of RHP John Ely/James McDonald, SS Ivan De Jesus and OF Trayvon Robinson or virtually any other OF in the Dodgers' system could have competed with the Philadelphia package. De Jesus and Robinson are far more advanced than the Phillies' prospects, but Ely/McDonald aren't as valued as Happ. Seems like a decent comparison, though.
The Phillies acquire a third ace in the last year and the Dodgers are left to pickup the leftovers (Lilly, Maholm).
I just don't know what to make of it sometimes. I mean, how can a team sit there with a straight face and ask for a Matt Kemp or James Loney in a package for Oswalt and then get this return?
The Dodgers' pursuit of a difference-making starter at the deadline is ended by the Phillies for a second consecutive year. And for a third consecutive year, the Phillies found a way to beat the Dodgers, even if they don't meet in the NLCS this year.
UPDATE: The Astros have traded Gose to Toronto for 1B Brett Wallace. That is an absolute steal for Houston. I'm not sure what the Jays are thinking with this trade. It makes the trade a lot better for Houston, but it doesn't excuse them bending over for the Phillies.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Dodgers acquire Scott Podsednik for two prospects
The Dodgers acquired Scott Podsednik from the Kansas City Royals for C Lucas May and RHP Elisaul Pimentel.
Podsednik has put up solid numbers this season: .309/.352/30 stolen bases (caught 12 times). He isn't much with the glove, but he certainly couldn't be any worse than Manny Ramirez in left field. He should be the Dodgers' starting left fielder for the forseeable future. Podsednik also has an affordable 2011 option at $2 million ($100,000 buyout) which voids at 525 plate appearances. If he voids the contract or the Dodgers don't pick up the option, he could be offered arbitration. As a Type-B free agent, that would net the Dodgers a supplemental first-round pick if another team signs him.
I had Pimentel rated in my top 20 midseason prospects list. He just turned 22 years old and is in pitching in the Midwest League.
This is the second time the Dodgers have traded a Pimentel to Kansas City, as they traded Odalis Perez, Blake Johnson and Julio Pimentel for Elmer Dessens in 2006.
May is a fringe prospect at 25 years old (26 in October) who has put up solid numbers in his last two years in the minors. He had a solid 2007 season at High-A Inland Emipre before busting in Double-A the next season. The Dodgers' catching depth gets thinner, but the team still has A.J. Ellis in Triple-A.
So why did the Dodgers feel a need to add Podsednik? Well, maybe they believe Manny Ramirez won't be able to offer much help the rest of the season. The Dodgers were also rumored to be interested in Tigers' outfielder Ryan Raburn, which could lead to a Garrett Anderson release.
Grading the Trade: B
- The Dodgers didn't give up any impact prospects for a guy who can help the team as a starter and reserve for the rest of the season. I made a post stating the best move for the Dodgers would be no move. However, since no great prospects were traded, this isn't the worst deal in the world. Also, the Dodgers are paying all of Podsednik's remaining salary -- perhaps the biggest shocker of all.
I'm still holding out hope for a Roy Oswalt deal in the next couple of days, but hope is diminishing each day.
Podsednik has put up solid numbers this season: .309/.352/30 stolen bases (caught 12 times). He isn't much with the glove, but he certainly couldn't be any worse than Manny Ramirez in left field. He should be the Dodgers' starting left fielder for the forseeable future. Podsednik also has an affordable 2011 option at $2 million ($100,000 buyout) which voids at 525 plate appearances. If he voids the contract or the Dodgers don't pick up the option, he could be offered arbitration. As a Type-B free agent, that would net the Dodgers a supplemental first-round pick if another team signs him.
I had Pimentel rated in my top 20 midseason prospects list. He just turned 22 years old and is in pitching in the Midwest League.
This is the second time the Dodgers have traded a Pimentel to Kansas City, as they traded Odalis Perez, Blake Johnson and Julio Pimentel for Elmer Dessens in 2006.
May is a fringe prospect at 25 years old (26 in October) who has put up solid numbers in his last two years in the minors. He had a solid 2007 season at High-A Inland Emipre before busting in Double-A the next season. The Dodgers' catching depth gets thinner, but the team still has A.J. Ellis in Triple-A.
So why did the Dodgers feel a need to add Podsednik? Well, maybe they believe Manny Ramirez won't be able to offer much help the rest of the season. The Dodgers were also rumored to be interested in Tigers' outfielder Ryan Raburn, which could lead to a Garrett Anderson release.
Grading the Trade: B
- The Dodgers didn't give up any impact prospects for a guy who can help the team as a starter and reserve for the rest of the season. I made a post stating the best move for the Dodgers would be no move. However, since no great prospects were traded, this isn't the worst deal in the world. Also, the Dodgers are paying all of Podsednik's remaining salary -- perhaps the biggest shocker of all.
I'm still holding out hope for a Roy Oswalt deal in the next couple of days, but hope is diminishing each day.
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