In the eighth of a nine-part series, I preview the Dodgers' center field outlook for the 2011 season.
The job isn't necessarily a lock for the incumbent.
Matt Kemp
- Kemp is penciled in as the team's starting center fielder and cleanup hitter. The former could change by the end of Spring Training, but I'm not counting on it. Kemp had a bad 2010 campaign, but he did hit a career-high 28 home runs to lead the Dodgers. However, just about every aspect of Kemp's game regressed. His hitting was bad, his fielding was not anywhere close to Gold Glove-caliber and his base-stealing was putrid. Despite all that, folks -- including myself -- have high hopes for Kemp's 2011 season. The addition of Davey Lopes to the coaching staff should help him improve his base-stealing, which needs to be a big part of his game. Aside from Rafael Furcal, Kemp is the most important player to the Dodgers' offense. The team is going to need him to have a huge season if it wants to contend in the competitive National League West.
Tony Gwynn
- I feel like I've written a lot about Gwynn (because I have). But Gwynn is a wild card in the race for the Dodgers' third outfield position. His defensive value is so great in center field that if he produces anything close to Major League-average offense, he could be patrolling center at Chavez Ravine. Such a move would improve the overall outfield defense, as Kemp would shift to right field and Andre Ethier to left field. Gwynn's plate discipline and base-stealing ability could be a plus for the Dodgers. The absolute best-case scenario for the Dodgers this spring is for Gwynn to win the center field job and bat in the No. 2 slot. It isn't that realistic, but stranger things have happened.
Guys in the mix
Trayvon Robinson
- Robinson, who just hit an RBI triple against the White Sox, could benefit from another year in the minors. It would take an unusual amount of injuries for Robinson to make his debut before September. His athleticism and improving plate discipline is encouraging. He needs to reduce his strikeout rate, though. Still, he is the Dodgers' future third outfielder (by my count) and should be the team's third outfielder in 2012.
Others: Gabe Kapler, Trent Oeltjen
Analysis
This one is between two players: Kemp and Gwynn. Like I said, if Robinson is manning CF before September, things have gone terribly wrong for the Dodgers. That isn't a slight to Robinson by any means. Things boil down like this: If Kemp can regain his 2009 form, the Dodgers will get above-average offense and defense. If he can't, there's a chance the team could get just above-average defense from Gwynn as the center fielder. The smart money is on Kemp with the "8" by his name on the lineup card for the Dodgers. I wouldn't be opposed to Gwynn playing so well that he bumps Kemp to right, but it'd be surprising.
Next up: Right Field
Monday, February 28, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
2011 Los Angeles Dodgers Season Preview: Left Field
In the seventh of a nine-part series, I preview the left field situation for the Dodgers.
Let's just say it isn't pretty.
Andre Ethier
- "Wait, I thought Ehtier played right field?" Currently, he does -- and not very well. Since Ethier took over in right field in 2008, his UZR/150 has been atrocious: -11.8 in '08, -14.2 in '09 and a Major Leauge-worst (by far) -19.7 in '10. The bottom line is, Ethier needs to move back to left field, where he's still bad, but it isn't nearly as bad as this. The only way this happens is if Tony Gwynn takes charge of the center field position in Spring Training.
Jay Gibbons
- I wrote about Gibbons in my bench preview and he is the favorite to get the most at-bats as the left fielder. Gibbons has some pop but is bad defensively and probably won't maintain a .500+ slugging percentage, as he did in limited time in 2010.
Marcus Thames
- I was for the Thames signing this off-season, despite his horrific defensive metrics. If you thought Ethier's -19.7 was bad in right, well, it has nothing on Thames' last three seasons in left field: -26.5 in '08, -23.8 in '09 and a whopping -35.6 in '10. Good thing there are significantly fewer left-handed pitchers in baseball than righties, or Thames would be getting a lot more time in the field. Just from the eye test, he cannot be that much worse than Manny Ramirez, but with numbers like this, who knows? Thames will also backup James Loney at first base.
Guys in the mix
Casey Blake
- Blake is a masher against lefties and if the Dodgers had a legitimate backup third baseman capable of starting against right-handers, perhaps Blake would get a look in left. However, he's played just two games in the outfield since being acquired by the Dodgers in July 2008.
Xavier Paul
- Early last season, Paul was my preference to take over for Ramirez in left following the 2010 season. A less-than-impressive showing in the majors and defensive problems caused many to give up on him, including management. Paul's ceiling is as an average No. 3 outfielder, but he does have some value. I highly doubt he makes the team out of Spring Training (barring injury). However, he deserves to be in this discussion.
Trayvon Robinson
- Robinson is one of my best Dodger prospects, but he needs some more seasoning before he gets a legitimate shot at left field (or center field). His strikeout rate is too high for my liking, but the rest of his game is progressing quite nicely. If there are enough injuries, Robinson could make his debut before September. If that happens, the Dodgers are in trouble, unfortunately.
Jerry Sands
- Sands is surprisingly comfortable in the outfield and could take grasp of the left field job come 2012. But like Robinson, Sands needs more seasoning at the upper levels of the minors. As my No. 1 Dodger prospect, Sands needs to show he can adjust to veteran pitchers. All the scouting reports say he has the ability to adjust to breaking balls and is willing to go the other way, so that bodes well for his and the Dodgers' future.
Others: Jamie Hoffmann, Gabe Kapler, Russ Mitchell, Trent Oeltjen
Analysis
Left field was all the talk this off-season for the Dodgers -- and for the wrong reasons. Unless Ehtier plays 140 games in left field or one of the prospects explodes, I don't see the Dodgers getting league-average production -- offensively or defensively -- from the position. The 2012 LF outlook is a lot better than 2011. Paul is a sleeper in all this, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.
Next up: Center Field
Let's just say it isn't pretty.
Andre Ethier
- "Wait, I thought Ehtier played right field?" Currently, he does -- and not very well. Since Ethier took over in right field in 2008, his UZR/150 has been atrocious: -11.8 in '08, -14.2 in '09 and a Major Leauge-worst (by far) -19.7 in '10. The bottom line is, Ethier needs to move back to left field, where he's still bad, but it isn't nearly as bad as this. The only way this happens is if Tony Gwynn takes charge of the center field position in Spring Training.
Jay Gibbons
- I wrote about Gibbons in my bench preview and he is the favorite to get the most at-bats as the left fielder. Gibbons has some pop but is bad defensively and probably won't maintain a .500+ slugging percentage, as he did in limited time in 2010.
Marcus Thames
- I was for the Thames signing this off-season, despite his horrific defensive metrics. If you thought Ethier's -19.7 was bad in right, well, it has nothing on Thames' last three seasons in left field: -26.5 in '08, -23.8 in '09 and a whopping -35.6 in '10. Good thing there are significantly fewer left-handed pitchers in baseball than righties, or Thames would be getting a lot more time in the field. Just from the eye test, he cannot be that much worse than Manny Ramirez, but with numbers like this, who knows? Thames will also backup James Loney at first base.
Guys in the mix
Casey Blake
- Blake is a masher against lefties and if the Dodgers had a legitimate backup third baseman capable of starting against right-handers, perhaps Blake would get a look in left. However, he's played just two games in the outfield since being acquired by the Dodgers in July 2008.
Xavier Paul
- Early last season, Paul was my preference to take over for Ramirez in left following the 2010 season. A less-than-impressive showing in the majors and defensive problems caused many to give up on him, including management. Paul's ceiling is as an average No. 3 outfielder, but he does have some value. I highly doubt he makes the team out of Spring Training (barring injury). However, he deserves to be in this discussion.
Trayvon Robinson
- Robinson is one of my best Dodger prospects, but he needs some more seasoning before he gets a legitimate shot at left field (or center field). His strikeout rate is too high for my liking, but the rest of his game is progressing quite nicely. If there are enough injuries, Robinson could make his debut before September. If that happens, the Dodgers are in trouble, unfortunately.
Jerry Sands
- Sands is surprisingly comfortable in the outfield and could take grasp of the left field job come 2012. But like Robinson, Sands needs more seasoning at the upper levels of the minors. As my No. 1 Dodger prospect, Sands needs to show he can adjust to veteran pitchers. All the scouting reports say he has the ability to adjust to breaking balls and is willing to go the other way, so that bodes well for his and the Dodgers' future.
Others: Jamie Hoffmann, Gabe Kapler, Russ Mitchell, Trent Oeltjen
Analysis
Left field was all the talk this off-season for the Dodgers -- and for the wrong reasons. Unless Ehtier plays 140 games in left field or one of the prospects explodes, I don't see the Dodgers getting league-average production -- offensively or defensively -- from the position. The 2012 LF outlook is a lot better than 2011. Paul is a sleeper in all this, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.
Next up: Center Field
Thanks to other Dodger blogs
I just wanted to thank the following Dodger blogs for adding me to their blogrolls. Some have done it recently, some did it a while ago. Regardless, I thank you for doing so.
DodgerCodger
DodgerBobble
Lasorda's Lair
NEW MEXICO FAN
Opinion of Kingman's Performance
Plaschke Thy Sweater is Argyle
True Blue LA
Vin Scully is my Homeboy
Thanks much and keep writing awesome stuff about the Blue! If I forgot anyone, please let me know and I'll add you to this post.
DodgerCodger
DodgerBobble
Lasorda's Lair
NEW MEXICO FAN
Opinion of Kingman's Performance
Plaschke Thy Sweater is Argyle
True Blue LA
Vin Scully is my Homeboy
Thanks much and keep writing awesome stuff about the Blue! If I forgot anyone, please let me know and I'll add you to this post.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Jesus Montero: an alternative to Albert Pujols
I'm taking a short break from my 2011 Season Preview series to bring you this, which can be filed under "Pipe Dream."
Since the arbitrary deadline between Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals to sign an extensions passed, people have been analyzing where Pujols could going to end up. Some mention the Dodgers are decent possibilities; some say it's a pipe dream (and with the current ownership situation, it is).
Pujols is far and away the best hitter in baseball. He's the only player to hit 30 or more home runs in his first 10 seasons. If he retired today, he'd be a lock for Cooperstown.
Despite all that, unless the Dodgers have a new owner by the winter, the Dodgers should look elsewhere for a big-time bat.
With the astronomical contract expectations (10 years, $300 million), it doesn't make a lot of sense for the Dodgers to make that kind of investment in a 32-year-old-to-be free agent.
I will admit, when Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract, I said the Dodgers should give the man a blank check. Thankfully, that didn't happen.
Here are the pros and cons of an Pujols 10-year contract with the Dodgers:
Pros
So, what should the Dodgers do? Should they invest heavily in one of the greatest right-handed hitters of all-time, or should they go a different route? I'm thinking the latter.
My choice for the alternative to Pujols: Jesus Montero.
Montero, quite possibly the best all-around hitter in the minors, is a catcher in the Yankee organization right now. As a 20-year-old in Triple-A last season, he hit .289/.353/.517, despite starting the season 1-for-30.
Montero's swing isn't exactly fluid, but scouts drool over the results he's produced at such a young age.
Why would the Yankees trade this guy? Well, they have some guy named Mark Teixeira at first base.
But isn't Montero a catcher?
Technically, he is. However, everyone and their mother sees him ending up at first base. With the Yankees, he won't get a chance to play 1B because Teixeira is one of the best defenders in the game. This doesn't mean the Yanks are just going to give him away, though.
Montero was almost shipped to Seattle for Cliff Lee last summer. He was also mentioned in rumors involving the Royals' Joakim Soria (a former Dodger).
I even proposed a trade in July that had Jonathan Broxton going to New York for Monetero. Of course, that was before they signed Rafael Soriano and before Broxton was just one season away from free agency.
Who do the Dodgers have that the Yanks would want?
Clayton Kershaw? Of course, but he's not going anywhere
Chad Billingsley? Perhaps -- depends how he pitches this season
Matt Kemp? Sure. With his propensity to hit the ball with authority to right field, he could take advantage of that short porch
Andre Ethier? I'm sure they wouldn't scoff at acquiring him
I probably wouldn't deal Billingsley or Kemp straight-up for Montero (not sure the Yanks would either). I'd probably consider Ethier, but a 3-4-5 of Kemp-Ethier-Montero would be awfully intriguing.
As you can see, since signing Soriano to be Mariano Rivera's eventual replacement, the Yankees' interest in Broxton would have likely dwindled. A trade would have to happen before the July 31 deadline, as I don't see Broxton re-upping midseason and the Yanks wouldn't give up their best prospect without getting something of long-term value in return. The teams could explore three-way trade possibilities.
Plus, Montero, albeit unproven, would be a much better financial move for the Dodgers.
If the Yankees get really crazy, they could go after Pujols in the winter and be forced to trade Montero. Montero is going to get a look this season with the Yanks and if they get the right deal, you know they won't hesitate to deal him.
Then again, James Loney could absolutely explode this season and take a firm grasp of the position. That's about as likely as me replacing Bill Plaschke at the L.A. Times (unfortunately).
Since the arbitrary deadline between Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals to sign an extensions passed, people have been analyzing where Pujols could going to end up. Some mention the Dodgers are decent possibilities; some say it's a pipe dream (and with the current ownership situation, it is).
Pujols is far and away the best hitter in baseball. He's the only player to hit 30 or more home runs in his first 10 seasons. If he retired today, he'd be a lock for Cooperstown.
Despite all that, unless the Dodgers have a new owner by the winter, the Dodgers should look elsewhere for a big-time bat.
With the astronomical contract expectations (10 years, $300 million), it doesn't make a lot of sense for the Dodgers to make that kind of investment in a 32-year-old-to-be free agent.
I will admit, when Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract, I said the Dodgers should give the man a blank check. Thankfully, that didn't happen.
Here are the pros and cons of an Pujols 10-year contract with the Dodgers:
Pros
- The best hitter in baseball -- hands-down
- Gold Glove-caliber defense
- Teach younger players the nuances about hitting
- Great for the franchise
- Best position player the franchise has ever had
- Will likely pay for himself over the life of the contract
- Long commitment
- He'll be 42 when the contract expires
- The last three or four years would grossly overpay him
- Financial burden ($30 million/year will do that to a team)
- Increased injury risk as he gets older
So, what should the Dodgers do? Should they invest heavily in one of the greatest right-handed hitters of all-time, or should they go a different route? I'm thinking the latter.
My choice for the alternative to Pujols: Jesus Montero.
Montero, quite possibly the best all-around hitter in the minors, is a catcher in the Yankee organization right now. As a 20-year-old in Triple-A last season, he hit .289/.353/.517, despite starting the season 1-for-30.
Montero's swing isn't exactly fluid, but scouts drool over the results he's produced at such a young age.
Why would the Yankees trade this guy? Well, they have some guy named Mark Teixeira at first base.
But isn't Montero a catcher?
Technically, he is. However, everyone and their mother sees him ending up at first base. With the Yankees, he won't get a chance to play 1B because Teixeira is one of the best defenders in the game. This doesn't mean the Yanks are just going to give him away, though.
Montero was almost shipped to Seattle for Cliff Lee last summer. He was also mentioned in rumors involving the Royals' Joakim Soria (a former Dodger).
I even proposed a trade in July that had Jonathan Broxton going to New York for Monetero. Of course, that was before they signed Rafael Soriano and before Broxton was just one season away from free agency.
Who do the Dodgers have that the Yanks would want?
Clayton Kershaw? Of course, but he's not going anywhere
Chad Billingsley? Perhaps -- depends how he pitches this season
Matt Kemp? Sure. With his propensity to hit the ball with authority to right field, he could take advantage of that short porch
Andre Ethier? I'm sure they wouldn't scoff at acquiring him
I probably wouldn't deal Billingsley or Kemp straight-up for Montero (not sure the Yanks would either). I'd probably consider Ethier, but a 3-4-5 of Kemp-Ethier-Montero would be awfully intriguing.
As you can see, since signing Soriano to be Mariano Rivera's eventual replacement, the Yankees' interest in Broxton would have likely dwindled. A trade would have to happen before the July 31 deadline, as I don't see Broxton re-upping midseason and the Yanks wouldn't give up their best prospect without getting something of long-term value in return. The teams could explore three-way trade possibilities.
Plus, Montero, albeit unproven, would be a much better financial move for the Dodgers.
If the Yankees get really crazy, they could go after Pujols in the winter and be forced to trade Montero. Montero is going to get a look this season with the Yanks and if they get the right deal, you know they won't hesitate to deal him.
Then again, James Loney could absolutely explode this season and take a firm grasp of the position. That's about as likely as me replacing Bill Plaschke at the L.A. Times (unfortunately).
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