Showing posts with label Jayson Werth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jayson Werth. Show all posts

Thursday, November 11, 2010

2010-2011 Free agent predictions

While I'm putting together my Los Angeles Dodgers' off-season plan (which should be up tomorrow), I thought I'd chime in and predict where some of the top free agents will land.

While Brandon Webb won't make the following list, Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post tweeted that the Dodgers could be interested in Webb. While Webb is nowhere near the pitcher he once was, it'd be a nice risk. The Dodgers wouldn't have to offer a lot in base salary and could attract Webb with incentives. Plus, he'd stay in the pitcher-friendly National League West. Low risk, high reward.

I'm using Keith Law's top 10 free agents.

1. Cliff Lee, SEA-TEX
Prediction: Texas - 6 years, $120 million
- While I will now forever hate Lee for choking against the Giants, the Rangers cannot afford to lose him. He is the main reason they made it to the World Series.
2. Carl Crawford, TB
Prediction: Anaheim - 6 years, $108 million
- The Angels need offense and Crawford is one of the best all-around outfielders in baseball. He had a career-high in nearly every offensive category (runs, HR, RBI, SLG, OPS, OPS+) and is primed to continue it as he's in the middle of his prime.
3. Jayson Werth, PHI
Prediction: Boston - 4 years, $68 million
- While it'd be nice to see Werth in Dodger Blue, they won't be able to afford him. The Red Sox are in desperate need of a right-handed-hitting outfielder, and Werth fits the bill.
4. Adrian Beltre, BOS
Prediction: Boston - 4 years, $50 million
- Another guy who'd look good in Blue, Beltre looked rejuvenated in 2010. He has the pop and great defense to be worth the contract he's going to receive. The Red Sox would be foolish to let him get away.
5. Victor Martinez, BOS
Prediction: Seattle - 4 years, $42 million
- Martinez is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball. But the question is, how long will he remain behind the dish? It's unknown, but the ability to play first base helps Martinez's cause a bit. The Red Sox will go with a cheaper option behind the plate, which benefits the Mariners.
6. Adam Dunn, WAS
Prediction: Chicago White Sox - 3 years, $30 million
- Dunn is one of the most powerful hitters in baseball. There are many teams that could use his power -- including the Dodgers. However, a team that was after Dunn at the deadline -- the White Sox -- will finally land their man.
7. Carl Pavano, MIN
Prediction: Minnesota - 3 years, $27 million
- Pavano had a bounce-back season in 2010 and is primed to cash in on it. If he's smart, he'd take a little less to stay in Minnesota, where he had great success.
8. Jorge De La Rosa, COL
Prediction: Colorado - 1 year, $8 million
- De La Rosa had a slightly better 2009 than 2010, but he's still a talented lefty who throws hard and strikes hitters out. Guys who fit that profile aren't exactly growing on trees. His Type-A free agent status could play a roll in his landing spot -- teams might not be willing to give up a first-round pick for a guy with durability issues. He'll end up back in Colorado.
9. Andy Pettitte, NYY
Prediction: New York Yankees - 1 year, $8 million
- I'm not really sure why Pettitte is on this list, as he's either going back to New York or retiring, which has been the case the last two years.
10. Jake Westbrook, CLE-STL
Prediction: St. Louis - 3 years, $24 million
- Westbrook seems like the perfect fit in St. Louis and I'd be shocked if he isn't in Cardinal Red for the next couple of seasons.

I'm adding two more players who were inexplicably excluded from the list.

11. Paul Konerko, CWS
Prediction: Anaheim - 3 years, $39 million
- It's easy to say Konerko would return to Chicago, but if a team offers him enough money, I'm sure he'd consider leaving -- especially if that team played in Southern California (not the Dodgers, unfortunately). The Angels are going balls-out to improve their offense.
12. Rafael Soriano, TB
Prediction: Arizona - 3 years, $33 million
- Soriano is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. It's unfortunate the Rays will not be able to afford him, but he is going to cash in on his fantastic 2010 season. Many have mocked him to Anaheim, but in my predictions, the Angels are already spending $31 million on two players, so they might not be able to give Soriano what he's looking for. The D-Backs had one of the worst bullpens in recent memory and are willing to throw lots of money at the situation.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

2010 Los Angeles Dodger off-season preview, part III

Editor's note: I've decided to extend this to a five-part series. The added element is free agent pitching targets. Basically, I'm dividing up the free agent section of the series.

This Dodger off-season is just as unsure as the last. The team did not sign any big free agents during the 2009 winter and despite General Manager Ned Colletti's statement the Dodgers would raise payroll, I wouldn't hold my breath, especially after signing Lilly to a $33 million, 3-year contract.

But still, it's fun to speculate.

The Dodgers need power. Period. Andre Ethier seemed primed to break out before breaking his pinkie early in the season. Matt Kemp regressed and James Loney's power may never develop. Casey Blake, despite hitting 17 home runs, had a down year.

Here are some of free agent position players the Dodgers could be interested in.

Catcher - This is only a need if the Dodgers non-tender Martin. They could go with the in-house platoon of Rod Barajas and A.J. Ellis, which wouldn't be that far-fetched.
John Buck, TOR
.281/.314/.489, 20 HR, 66 RBI
- Buck is the consolation prize in the catcher market, which makes it unlikely the Dodgers will make a play for him. He made the All-Star team this season, but only played in 118 games.
Victor Martinez, BOS
.302/.351/.493, 20 HR, 79 RBI
- Martinez is the prize. He's destined for first base in the future, but he has another season or two left behind the dish. His bat is great, his glove isn't. And the Red Sox are probably going to keep him anyway.
Miguel Olivo*, COL
.269/.315/.449, 14 HR, 58 RBI
- Olivo isn't much of an upgrade for what he might get on the open market.

Others: Ramon Hernandez, CIN; A.J. Pierzynski, CWS; Jason Varitek, BOS
- Varitek could be worth a look as a backup. Hernandez and Pierzynski will get starting jobs elsewhere.

What to do: Go with Barajas and Ellis and invest the money Russell Martin would have made in another position.

First Base - This depends on whether or not the Dodgers decide to keep Loney in the fold.
Adam Dunn, WAS
.260/.356/.536, 38 HR, 103 RBI
- A poor defensive player overall, Dunn will command a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal on the open market. He could be signed to play left field, too.
Aubrey Huff, SF
.290/.385/.506, 26 HR, 86 RBI
- Huff enjoyed a great bounce-back season in 'Frisco. He isn't great with the glove, but he's acceptable. He can play a corner outfield position, if needed. The Giants probably won't let him get away.
Adam LaRoche, ARI
.261/.320/.468, 25 HR, 100 RBI
- LaRoche eclipsed his career-high in RBI (100), but he actually had one of his worst seasons since 2007, according to OPS+ (106 after 122 the previous three seasons).
Paul Konerko, CWS
.312/.393/.584, 39 HR, 111 RBI
- Konerko had a fantastic season. In fact, it was a career-best season for the one-time Dodger. He's entering his age-35 season, so a long-term deal for him is risky. I don't see the Dodgers being contenders for his services.

Others: Lyle Overbay, TOR; Carlos Pena, TB; Ty Wigginton, BAL
- Overbay isn't an upgrade over Loney, Pena cannot hit the ball and Wigginton is a platoon player.

I'm a Loney backer. However, after last season's second-half decline, I've lost a little confidence in him. I'd still rather the Dodgers improve elsewhere, as his glove is almost invaluable at first base.

What to do: Take a look at Dunn, but look to upgrade elsewhere.

Middle Infield - Almost anyone is an upgrade over Theriot, but the 2B crop is pretty awful this year. Furcal, unless traded, will be the Dodgers' opening day SS.
Mark Ellis*, OAK
.291/.358/.381, 5 HR, 49 RBI
- Ellis is a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman. However, he has a $6 million club option with Oakland, which is surprisingly affordable for the A's. It isn't guaranteed he'll have it picked up, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was.
Orlando Hudson, MIN
.268/.338/.372, 6 HR, 37 RBI
- The former Dodger will not be coming back to L.A. He had a down year in 2010 after returning to the American league.
Juan Uribe, SF
.248/.310/.440, 24 HR, 85 RBI
- I've seen other blogs mention Uribe as an acquisition. While it pains me to say it, he would be a good utility player. Like Huff, though, I'd be shocked if 'Frisco lets him go.
J.J. Hardy, MIN
.268/.320/.394, 6 HR, 38 RBI
- Hardy was an All-Star in Milwaukee and many thought a change of scenery to Minnesota would help. It did not. Hardy could be a valuable utility player, as he can play all three infield positions. This is one guy I'd really like the Dodgers to sign.

Others: Adam Kennedy, OAK; Jerry Hairston, Jr., SD; Bill Hall*, BOS; Jose Lopez*, SEA; Omar Infante*, ATL

What to do: I'd love to see Hardy in the fold as a super utility player, with most of his playing time coming at 2B. Hall, if he hits the market, could be that kind of guy, too. Theriot could return, but at a salary closer to what he earned in 2010.

Third Base - If the Dodgers spend big, it should be here... on an old friend.
Adrian Beltre*, BOS
.321/.365/.553, 28 HR, 102 RBI (AL-leading 49 2Bs)
- Beltre didn't put up 2004 numbers, but he was one of the best signings of last off-season. Not only did his bat return, but he is still one of the best defensive 3Bs in baseball. If the Dodgers want to bring in one big-time free agent, this should be the guy. He has a $10 million player option that he will almost certainly decline.
Jorge Cantu, FLA-TEX
.256/.304/.392, 11 HR, 56 RBI
- Cantu re-energized his career in Florida, but had a poor 2010. A trade to the soon-to-be-champion Texas Rangers (hopefully) didn't help his production. At this point, I'd rather just go with Blake for 135-140 games.
Brandon Inge, DET
.247/.321/.397, 13 HR, 70 RBI
- Inge isn't a prototypical 3B. He hasn't had an OPS+ of league-average since 2005 (when it was 100). His career OPS+ is 85, which isn't an improvement over Blake.
Aramis Ramirez*, CHC
.241/.294/.452, 25 HR, 83 RBI
- Ramirez had a woeful start to the 2010 season. However, when the Cubs came to L.A. before the All-Star Break, he started to heat up. He has a player option for 2011 and team option for 2012 -- he's not going anywhere.
Miguel Tejada, BAL-SD
.269/.312/.381, 15 HR, 71 RBI
- Tejada is in the twilight of his career. He's best suited for utility duty. He isn't much of a third-base option for L.A.

Others: Pedro Feliz, HOU-STL; Maicer Izturis, ANA; Melvin Mora, COL
- None of these guys would be an upgrade over Blake. Izturis is sure to be a hot commodity in the utility man market.

What to do: Beltre or bust. It's that simple.

Outfield - With Kemp (if he isn't traded) and Ethier, the Dodgers need just one more outfielder. Scott Podesednik is the odds-on favorite to be the starting left fielder, despite it being the wrong move.
Carl Crawford, TB
.307/.356/.495, 19 HR, 90 RBI
- After Cliff Lee, Crawford is the best free agent available. He will get a huge contract from another team -- potentially the Red Sox or Angels. He'd look great in Dodger Blue, but it isn't happening.
Johnny Damon, DET
.271/.355/.401, 8 HR, 51 RBI
- At this stage in his career, Damon wouldn't be much of an upgrade of Podsednik. He likes Detroit and it's likely he'll stay there.
Vladimir Guerrero*, TEX
.300/.345/.496, 29 HR, 115 RBI
- Maybe if this were 2004. Vlad seems to have found a new home in Texas.
Jayson Werth, PHI
.296/.388/.532, 27 HR, 85 RBI (NL-leading 46 2Bs)
- Another former Dodger, eh? Ironically, he might be the best fit of all. However, his time in L.A. didn't end well and it remains to be seen if he would return... and if Frank McCourt would pay what it would cost to land Werth. His home-road splits since going to Philadelphia are cause for future success, though (2010 OPS: .999 at home, .838 on the road).

Others: Pat Burrell, TB-SF; Coco Crisp*, OAK; Brad Hawpe, COL-TB; Xavier Nady, CHC; Marcus Thames, NYY
- Burrell, Nady and Thames would be right-handed platoon partners with a lefty (Podsednik?), Crisp (if he hits the open market) would shore up the outfield defense (Kemp to RF, Ethier to LF) and Hawpe wouldn't be able to do damage against the Dodgers.

What to do: Gauge Werth's interest if the Dodgers fail to land Beltre. Otherwise, just go with a lefty-righty platoon in left field -- preferably with Thames as the righty.

Next up: Free agent targets - pitchers

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Do the Dodgers trade Manny Ramirez?

Following the 2008 season, the notion of Manny Ramirez reverting to his Boston ways rarely crossed Dodger fans' minds.

Ramirez came to Los Angeles and promptly hit .396/.489/.743 in two months for the Dodgers -- Godlike numbers for an aging slugger. In May 2009, Ramirez was busted for taking a banned substance. Since that time, he hasn't been the same -- on the field and off the field.

While he put up respectable numbers last season (.290/.418/.531), but not the numbers the Dodgers expected. However, the good will Ramirez had built was long gone after the 50-game suspension.

Ramirez now finds himself on the disabled list for the third time this season. His 38-year-old body cannot take the wear-and-tear of playing left field in the National League. This will undoubtedly be his last season as a Dodger and National Leaguer, which is why the Dodgers should consider dealing him now.

Ramirez will be a Type-A free agent after the season, but with the McCourts' financial issues, it would be hard to imagine them offering Ramirez arbitration, even though he'd reject it. That is the main reason why trading him right now makes sense.

Ramirez has landed on the disabled list three times this season -- twice for a right calf strain and once for a right hamstring strain. That does not bode well for Ramirez returning to left field.

While the Dodger offense would take a hit, it would also be a time for the young veterans to step up and prove they can carry a team, something they'll have to do in 2011 and beyond. Also, it'd be nice to see the Dodgers get a return on their investment.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been rumored to be interested in Jayson Werth, but the Phillies' asking price is quite high. The Dodgers should jump right in by making Ramirez available to the Rays. His contract is definitely affordable, as he's making $5 million this season with $15 million in deferred payments over the next three years.

What exactly could the Dodgers expect in return? Well, not much.

One guy I'd really like to have a look at is Jacob McGee. The 23-year-old had Tommy John surgery in June 2008. Before that, he was rated as the Rays' No. 3 prospect as recently as 2008 (No. 9 in 2009 and No. 8 in 2010), according to Baseball America. He's a left-handed starter who is pitching well at Double-A. I don't even know if the Rays would be willing to trade him. But if their attemps for Werth don't work out, Ramirez could be an option.

The Rays do have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball and could use a big bat in the middle of their lineup. Provided Ramirez is healthy, he'd be a stabilizing force in the middle of an already solid Tampa lineup.

But this is the Dodgers, a.k.a. one of the most stubborn teams in baseball. The team isn't likely to move Ramirez, even though it'd make a lot of sense.

Trading Ramirez would not be a sign of the Dodgers being sellers or giving up; it would be a smart baseball move.

Should the Dodgers trade Ramirez? Yes.
Will the Dodgers trade Ramirez? No.