My 2012 Los Angeles Dodgers MLB Draft big board, plus other news

Richie Shaffer, future Dodger? Kevin Goldstein says no.

Happy MLB Draft day!

The Dodgers choose at No. 18 an No. 51 today, and expect them to choose at least one pitcher with their first two picks.

It's anyone's guess as to who the Dodgers will take. Chad Moriyama has a quick draft preview on his site. The consensus is the Dodgers will nab a high school player with their first pick -- most likely a pitcher.

The name that has been bandied about for the last couple weeks is Ty Hensely. Hensley is a right-hander out of Santa Fe High School in Oklahoma. Jim Callis, Keith Law and Jonathan Mayo all have the Dodgers tabbing Hensley the pick.

Jared Massey said in the most recent episode of 'Dugout Blues' Hensley reminds him of Chad Billingsley (not physically, but the way he pitches).

Hensely has a good low-90s fastball and a power curveball -- the same beginning repertoire as Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Withrow and Ethan Martin.

Hensley would be a solid pick and is definitely on my big board.

I probably sound like a broken record, but the Dodgers just need to choose the best player available. If Hensley is that guy, sobeit.

Without further adieu, here's my Dodgers' big board. Take note: I'm including guys who have a shot to be there at No. 18, so players like Mark Appel and Byron Buxton won't be on this list.

My Dodgers' 2012 MLB Draft Big Board

1. 3B Richie Shaffer, Clemson University
2. SS Addison Russell, Pace High School (Florida)
3. 3B Corey Seager, Northwest Carrabus High School (South Carolina)
4. RHP Ty Hensley, Santa Fe High School (Oklahoma)
5. RHP Michael Wacha, Texas A&M
6. 3B/OF Stephen Piscotty, Stanford
7. C/OF/3B Stryker Trahan, Acadiana High School (Louisiana)
8. LHP Matt Smoral, Solon High School (Ohio)
9. RHP Lucas Sims, Brookwood High School (Georgia)
10. 3B/1B/RHP Joey Gallo, Bishop Gorman High School (Nevada)

Some notes on the big board

• I'm obviously leaning position player, but I won't be upset one bit if the Dodgers come away with a good SP prospect.
• Russell is a bat-first prospect, but has shown he might be able to stick at shortstop. Shortstop has evolved from an all-glove/no-hit position to a position that values offense. If he doesn't pan out at short, he should be able to make the move to the hot corner. Would be a high-ceiling pick in my eyes.
• Wacha is viewed as a potential Top 12 prospect, but FanGraphs and Kevin Goldstein had him slipping to the Dodgers at No. 18.
• Gallo is a big-time power prospect, but he has a lot of swing-and-miss in his swing. Teams view him as a power-hitting third baseman or flamethrowing right-handed pitcher. Sounds like Martin, no?

Massey and I discussed in the podcast, the absolute wild card is Lucas Giolito from Harvard-Westlake High School in Studio City, Calif.

Giolito might have the highest ceiling of any player in this draft. However, injury concerns (sprained UCL, might ultimately need Tommy John) have dropped him on many teams' draft boards. If he's there at No. 18, I could definitely see Logan White pulling the trigger on him.

The latest from Mayo:

"Lucas Giolito remains a huge wild card. There’s been a lot of conjecture about him going somewhere in the middle of the first round, but I don’t have a firm feel from anyone where he’s going to go. One team that picks in the middle of the round said that Giolito priced himself out from their slot. The assigned values on picks 11-20 start at $2.625 million for No. 11 and go down to $1.85 million at No. 20. So someone would have to get creative."

Yeah, that's another thing. Giolito has a commitment to UCLA and could easily go there if he doesn't get the kind of bonus he's looking for if a team in the teens drafts him. I've seen him mocked to Toronto a lot, which holds the No. 17 pick.

If Giolito is there at No. 18, despite what I said in the podcast about the Dodgers not necessarily having the luxury of taking a chance on a guy like this, I'd like to see him be the pick ... if they can get him signed.

If the Dodgers end up with any of the 11 names mentioned above, I'd be happy. And so should Dodger fans, even if they select another prep pitcher.

Some names to keep an eye on at No. 51

• RHP J.O. Berrios, Papa Juan XIII High School (Puerto Rico)
• 3B/RHP Carson Kelly, Westview High School (Oregon)
• C Peter O'Brien, University of Miami (FL)
• RHP Duane Underwood, Pope High School (Georgia)
• LHP Hunter Virant, Camarillo High School (California)
• RHP Walker Weickel, Olympia High School (Florida)
• OF Jesse Winker*, Olympia High School (Florida)

*- Brother of Joseph Winker (28th-rounder last year), who is with the Great Lakes Loons

Roster moves

Juan Rivera was activated from the disabled list today and Scott Van Slyke was optioned back to Triple-A Albuquerque.

At least Van Slyke will get consistent playing time. He's been slumping since hitting that mammoth pinch-hit home run against St. Louis a couple weeks ago.

This just in (12:40 p.m.): Shawn Tolleson was promoted from Triple-A Albuquerque to replace Javy Guerra. Guerra went on the 15-day disabled list with right knee inflamation.

To make room for Tolleson on the 40-man roster, Matt Guerrier was transferred to the 60-day DL.

Oh happy day.

News from the front office

From the good news department, and Ken Rosenthal's latest column:

"Dodgers scouts are telling their rival counterparts that new club president Stan Kasten told his front office, 'Get what you need and send me the bill.'

Kasten said he wouldn’t go that far, but added, 'If that's the word on the street, I kind of like that. I want fans to understand we’re going to be aggressive – aggressive, but not reckless.'"

Kevin Youkilis, anyone?

Seeing the Quakes live, again


I'll be in attendance on Tuesday and Wednesday for the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes' annual visit to Stockton to play the Ports. Jon Michael Redding and Zach Lee (!) are scheduled to pitch (by my account), so that'll be cool.

Follow me on Twitter for updates and photos from the game. I'll definitely have some posts about it, too.

Photo credit: Courtesy of Clemson University Sports Information

History of the No. 18 pick in the MLB Draft, plus Jorge Soler is a free agent

With the Rule 4 Draft set for Monday, it's time to look at the history of the No. 18 pick throughout the years.

Ike Davis, No. 18 pick in 2008

The Dodgers finished 82-80 last season, earning the No. 18 selection. It's a large step up from their lowest point, when they were slotted to select as high as No. 7 (when things were really crappy in Dodgerland).

Here are the players who have been chosen at No. 18 in the MLB Draft in the last 20 years.

2011: Sonny Gray, RHP (Athletics)
2010: Kaleb Cowart, 3B (Angels)*
2009: Chad James, LHP (Marlins)*
2008: Ike Davis, 1B (Mets)
2007: Pete Kozma, INF (Cardinals)*
2006: Kyle Drabek, RHP (Phillies)*
2005: Cesar Carrillo, RHP (Padres)
2004: Josh Fields, 3B (White Sox... current Isotope)
2003: Brad Snyder, OF (Indians)
2002: Royce Ring, LHP (White Sox)
2001: Aaron Heilman, RHP (Mets)
2000: Miguel Negron, OF (Blue Jays)*
1999: Richard Stahl, LHP (Orioles)*
1998: Seth Etherton, RHP (Angels)
1997: Mark Mangum, RHP (Rockies)*
1996: R.A. Dickey, RHP (Rangers)
1995: Ryan Jaroncyk, SS (Mets)*
1994: Cade Gaspar, RHP (Tigers)
1993: Chris Schwab, OF (Expos)*
1992: Chris Roberts, LHP (Mets)

And one more
1991: Al Shirley, OF (Mets)*
- This was originally the Dodgers' selection, but they had to send the pick to the Mets as the Dodgers signed Darryl Strawberry in the winter.

Other notable selections
1987: Jack Armstrong, RHP (Reds)
1985: Joe Magrane, LHP (Cardinals)
1978: Rex Hudler, SS (White Sox)*

So, not exactly some great players available in the past, but that doesn't mean No. 18 can't be lucky.

The Dodgers also have the 51st pick.

Notable selections at No. 51
2011 Dante Bichette, 3B (Yankees)*
2008: Anthony Gose, OF (Phillies)*
2005: Ivan De Jesus, SS (Dodgers)
2002: Zach Hammes, RHP (Dodgers)*
1984: Tim Scott, RHP (Dodgers)*

Larkin, Hall of Famer

And easily the best choice at No. 51
1982: Barry Larkin, SS (Reds)*

So, some decent prospects, but not a lot of great players at No. 18. At least there was a great player at No. 51 (at one time) in Larkin.

There are a lot of intriguing possibilities at No. 18, including guys like Richie Shaffer, Ty Hensley, Corey Seager, Stryker Trahan, Stephen Piscotty and a number of other players.

I'm excited for this draft. I'd expect the Dodgers to snag a bat (probably an infielder) and a pitcher with their first two picks. Of course, it's best player available or bust in this case.


#####

Ken Rosenthal brought news on Saturday of Jorge Soler finally being declared a free agent. He isn't expected to be on the market long, so if the Dodgers want to get in on him, they need to do it quickly.

Here's what I wrote in February about Soler and why the Dodgers should make his signing a priority.

"This is exactly what the Dodgers need right now. I know they have a ton of outfield prospects, but none are on the level of this prospect. And by the time Soler would be ready, the Dodgers would probably have a vacancy in their outfield.

The Blue Jays, Cubs, Orioles, Phillies Red Sox, White Sox and Yankees have all expressed some level of interest in the right fielder. How fitting would it be for the Dodgers to reassert their dominance in the international market -- smacking down some of the "big boys" before the rules change?

For me, this is a no-brainer. Will it happen? Absolutely not, but it's more practical than giving Fielder $160 million."

Here's hoping the Dodgers, a team that just signed 20 Latin American free agents, don't let the best one slip by ... at least, not without a fight.

#####

My latest piece at ChadMoriyama.com is on the Quakes' powerful catcher Michael Pericht. He has three home runs in his last two games and has a ridiculous (even for the California League) 1.130 OPS. Here's an excerpt:

"Pericht has been playing behind Christopher O’Brien with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes this season, but that could change if he keeps hitting.

Helping his cause, Pericht is posting reverse splits this season, and is playing more against righties.

• vs. RHP: .343/.418/.771 (!), 8 HR
• vs. LHP: .304/.385/.565, 1 HR (23 AB)

So, that’s encouraging. However, his 31.4 percent strikeout rate is a bit alarming. He’s shown the ability to get on base (if only a little) in the past, and has an 8.6 percent walk rate this season. He’ll need to improve in both those areas as he either gets more playing time in Rancho or moves up to Double-A."

Photo credits

Davis: slgckgc, Flickr

Larkin: Rick Dikeman, Wikimedia Commons

The Dodgers should take note: It pays to draft third basemen early

The MLB Draft is a crap shoot -- more so than any other draft in professional sports. When there's as many as 40 rounds, that's bound to happen.

The Dodgers, in the Logan White era, have drafted many a pitcher. That is obviously his philosophy. There's nothing wrong with that.

White's first-round draft picks since 2002
(Italics denotes Supplemental first-round pick)
James Loney, Greg Miller, Chad Billingsley, Scott Elbert, Blake DeWitt, Justin Orenduff, Luke Hochevar (did not sign), Clayton Kershaw, Bryan Morris, Preston Mattingly, Chris Withrow, James Adkins, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, Zach Lee, Chris Reed

Only three of these guys were not pitchers.

Now, they say it's harder to find a frontline starting pitcher than, say, a third baseman. But is that true?

We all know the Dodgers are in desperate need of a third baseman in the minors, but it's foolish to draft for need in the MLB Draft. However, as was pointed out to me on the Scout.com Dodger Message Board, it's hard to find a quality third baseman if a team doesn't: 

1. Draft him in the early rounds of the draft, or
2. Sign him as an international free agent (which is going away soon)

Let me break it down.

Drafted third basemen in baseball (overall selection)
Pedro Alvarez (2)
Lonnie Chisenhall (29)
Chase Headley (66)
Chipper Jones (1)
Brett Lawrie (16)
Evan Longoria (3)
Mike Moustakas (2)
Alex Rodriguez (1)
Scott Rolen (46)
Kyle Seager (82)
Ian Stewart (10)
David Wright (38)
Ryan Zimmerman (4)

Top undrafted/international free agent third basemen
Adrian Beltre
Miguel Cabrera
Placido Polanco
Aramis Ramirez
Hanley Ramirez
Pablo Sandoval

Nearly two-thirds (19/30) of all starting third basemen in the majors were drafted in the first three rounds or were signed as international free agents.

With every rule comes an exception. David Freese (ninth round), Mark Reynolds (16th) and Kevin Youkilis (eighth round) were later selections who have made an impact in the majors. Reynolds not so much, but he still hit 44 home runs in a season.

And it doesn't stop at current major leaguers. There are a ton of quality prospects who were either drafted high or signed as either undrafted or international free agents.

Notable drafted third base prospects (in a team's Top 10)
Nolan Arenado
Dante Bichette
Nick Castellanos
Zack Cox
Matt Davidson
Matt Dominguez
Todd Frazier
Will Middlebrooks
Mike Olt
Anthony Rendon
Josh Vitters

Of these guys, only Arenado (second) and Middlebrooks (fifth) were not a first-round selections.

Undrafted/international free agent third basemen
Edward Salcedo
Miguel Sano
Cheslor Cuthbert

Of the 30 teams in baseball, just five do not have a third baseman ranked in their Top 10 (according to Baseball America's rankings). There are 29 third basemen ranked in a team's Top 10 among all 30 teams.Of the 29, 13 were first-round picks, including supplemental first-round selections. Ten of the 29 were undrafted or international free agents.

So, 23 of the 29 (79.3 percent) were either first-round picks or signed outside the draft. The Dodgers have none neither of these things in recent years, hence the lack of quality third base prospects.

As it stands right now, guys like Pedro Baez and Alex Santana are the Dodgers' best third base prospects. Baez was an international signing and Santana was a second-round pick. Baez hasn't panned out (though, he's playing decent ball this season) and Santana is 18 years old -- many, many years from contributing.

With third base deep in this year's draft, the Dodgers could be in a position to upgrade the position rather quickly. It obviously pays off to draft third basemen early in the draft. A lot of them pan out, even if some don't (Stewart) or haven't yet (Alvarez, Chisenhall).

With the draft three days away, the Dodgers are going to have decisions to make. Whoever they draft now won't be able to help for a couple years (at the soonest), and they certainly don't want to reach for a third baseman for the sake of drafting a third baseman. But if a guy like Richie Shaffer is available at No. 18, there probably won't be many better players available at the pick

Photo credits  

Wright: slgckgc, Flickr

Shaffer: Courtesy of Clemson University Sports Information

Dodgers' 2012 MLB Draft prospect profile: Richie Shaffer

Richie Shaffer, 3B/1B

Clemson University

Junior

3B/1B Richie Shaffer, Clemson

Vitals
6'3, 205 pounds
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
DOB: March 15, 1991

Rankings
Baseball America: 21
MLB.com: 17
Minor League Ball: 12

Info
Richie Shaffer was drafted by the Dodgers in the 25th round of the 2009 MLB Draft. He fell that far coming out of high school because of signability issues. But that's not to say the Dodgers didn't make a valiant effort to get him signed. Shaffer ultimately chose college over 25th-round money (more like first-round money, but you get the point).

It's rarely smart to draft for need in the MLB Draft, but if Shaffer were available at No. 18, he'd likely be the best player available and would fill a need in the minors.

Scouting Report
From everything I've read and heard, Shaffer has a legitimate bat that could play at either corner infield position. His glove, however, might limit him to first base -- but that remains to be seen.

From MLB Draft Guide:

"Offensively, Shaffer has plus bat speed and good raw power.  He has a solid approach at the plate, showing patience and a willingness to go the other way.  His swing can get a bit long at times.

Defense is where there are questions and a lack of consensus on Shaffer.  After two years playing first base, Shaffer has moved to third for his junior season.  His footwork is still an area that needs work if he is to remain at the position going forward.  He does have more than enough arm strength for third.  For some, Shaffer projects as close to average at third, while others believe he is destined to play first base.  My money is on him working hard enough to play at least a passable third base."

Either way, the Dodgers could use help at either corner in the minors -- especially third base.

There are options with Shaffer if he doesn't pan out at third base. He can either play first base, where his plus arm would be wasted, or a corner outfield spot (probably right field). If a team is taking him in the first round, though, it's probably banking on him sticking at third base.

Conclusion
If the Dodgers end up with Shaffer at No. 18, it'd be a minor miracle. They tried to sign him out of high school, but the money wasn't right. He's a legitimate Top-20 prospect and would immediately shoot up the Dodger prospect rankings.

If Shaffer is there and no one else has fallen who is better than him, he has to be the pick. There is history with Shaffer, as Logan White sees something in him.

Photo credit: Courtesy of Clemson University Sports Information