What must the Dodgers think of Alex Guerrero's defense?

With a monster weekend, Alex Guerrero has moved into the 1.100 OPS range at Triple-A Albuquerque. Word is that he is just not good enough in the field though to get a promotion. His defensive numbers are not that bad, so what are the Dodgers thinking?

If you're thinking of the present only, clearly a Guerrero/Dee Gordon platoon is the best way to go, and send Chone Figgins back down. You have to keep Justin Turner because he's the only other halfway competent backup shortstop unless you want to put Gordon or Guerrero there (which nobody does) when a backup is needed.

But the Dodgers want Guerrero to keep getting reps at second base. They've said all along they see him as not-yet-acceptable as a major league defensive second baseman, but with a few months of practice hopefully he gets up to at least the level where his bat can compensate for what his glove gives away.

First, his numbers. In 28 games at second base he has a .971 fielding percentage, a 4.75 range factor and a 1.1 Fielding Runs Above Average. That doesn't scream "unacceptable."  It actually sounds quite acceptable. But scouts are seeing something they don't like out there.

Dee Gordon, by contrast, in 20 games last year at 2B for Albuquerque, had a .990 fielding percentage and a 4.9 range factor. In the majors this year, he's slightly below-average in fielding percentage and slightly above-average in range factor, leading to an overall evaluation as "average major-league second baseman." Let's say Guerrero is worse in the field (and obviously on the bases), but stronger at the plate -- who offers the better overall package? Is there a way to get playing time for everyone that deserves it? Is Turner really going to get 300 plate appearances this year for the Dodgers?

Kindly, I think Gordon is capable of about a .275/.330/.355 triple-slash line going forward, which is about 10 percent below an average Major League hitter, and so costs the team about 8 runs over a full season, relative to average. His baserunning is historic, though. He looks capable of about +11 runs there. So, we're up to +3 runs above-average, offensively. His defense is maybe just a little below average for a second baseman -- so he'd probably give back five runs there compared to an average major league second baseman.  Now, in the full WAR framework, an average major league second baseman is worth two runs more than an average player, So, we get to an exactly average major league player, all in all. It's a kind of head in the oven/feet in the freezer kind of average, but average nonetheless when you add everything up.

Guerrero, on the other hand, can hit about Major League average, maybe better. If he's at least an average baserunner then, he'd have to be no worse than two runs below average over the course of a season to be the team's best option. Despite his stats, he is, by all accounts, not that. The last thing the Dodgers want is to get weaker on defense right now. But, if it came with enough bat to be worth it, that'd be something to consider.

Let's say that the scouts are right and he'd be a terrible second baseman right now, -20 runs below average over a season. How good of a hitter do you have to be to make that up? Pretty good. Say .360/.480 or so. I don't think he's that good. What if he was only bad at second base, -10 runs over a season? A .340/.450 line would make up for that. That's probably the upper bound of how good he might be. So in this case, it's probably true that there's no huge advantage to making Guerrero the every day second baseman over Gordon today.

There would be a huge advantage per game to be had by playing Guerrero as the right-handed side of the platoon, since Gordon is horrible against lefties and Turner is Turner. Having Guerrero available as a pinch-hitter sure would change the complexion of a lot of games. But the Dodgers want him to get better at second and that takes playing games at second. If they had a Bill & Ted phone booth, they'd get him a bunch of games at 3B too and turn him into a utility infielder overnight (they've started giving him some time at SS, presumably so they can see what they've got there and so he doesn't completely get out of practice). But they don't. He arrived in America only when he did, and the best the Dodgers can really hope is they get their act together and take charge of the playoff race so that they can have this ideal situation in place come September/October.

Same story for swapping out Zach Lee for Paul Maholm. Similar story for swapping out Joc Pederson for one of our lefty outfielders. Except in the case of Pederson, he has nothing much left to learn at Triple-A. He has to do the rest of his learning in the majors. So, if we want him contributing down the stretch, the sooner Ned Colletti can get this man out of town, the better. And if you can get a reliever that won't walk every other batter, or a late-inning defensive infielder back, that's a victory.

I'm with Ethier at Point Break Live... He's playing Johnny Utah #knittigfactory #Bklyn pic.twitter.com/iZ6OknZGtF
— David Vassegh (@THEREAL_DV) May 19, 2014

 Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Dodgers Digest

Exploring some trade ideas involving the Dodgers and their outfielders

The Dodgers outfield situation has gotten a lot clearer. There's Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and everybody else. Scott Van Slyke is proving he can hit Major League pitching (really well) and is surprising everyone with his above-average defense. Joc Pederson continues to be the best-performing player in the minor leagues - he has a 1.125 OPS after 38 games in Triple-A, 11 stolen bases and numerous highlight catches. What more do you want the guy to do? Well, hit lefties, but that's what Van Slyke is for.

Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier are each doing about what you might expect, given their age. They're unfortunately similar right now. Neither can hit lefties at all, but are OK 400 plate-appearance/year outfielders getting paid a lot of money through 2017 ($66 million for Ethier, $77 million for Crawford). Ethier offers positional versatility and a little more on-base percentage. Crawford has way more speed, and that's about it. While Ethier is perceived as having more power, that's from people having a looooong memory. Their isolated slugging (ISO) has been about identical the last five years. Both are now firmly below the average Major League position player in ISO and they're unlikely to reverse the trend at age 32. With performance-enhancing drug testing in place, the vast majority of 32-year-olds are firmly on the downside of their MLB careers.

The Dodgers should feel comfortable now moving one (or both) of Ethier and Crawford for whatever they can get. Kemp's defense has been atrocious in center field, although maybe improving lately as he gets confidence in his health back. So I'd line up (LF-CF-RF) vs righties: Kemp/Pederson/Yasiel Puig and Van Slyke/Kemp/Puig vs. lefties.

So, what could they get for Crawford or Ethier?  Well, nothing, given the contracts. Either one could go on waivers and not be claimed. But if the Dodgers ate some money or threw in some other pieces, what could they get? Still not much, but that's more fun to think about than nothing.

Would the Dodgers be a better team just by getting rid of one? It's debatable. It opens a spot for Pederson, which is the only positive. But consider Miguel Olivo also had an 1.100 OPS at Albuquerque this year, which translated to .544 in the bigs. Ethier and Crawford are both serviceable role players on a first-division team, or the Dodgers would be tempted to just cut them.

Someone else's problem is what you could get. Best case, that's a small-market team with a good player due for a big payday. For example, Baltimore decides not to re-sign Matt Wieters ($12M-$15M in arbitration next year, then free agency). They need an outfielder and a starting pitcher (hey, the Dodgers have extra of those too!). But Wieters' elbow issue would likely preclude any deal this season, as he's already on the disabled list, but won't likely need Tommy John surgery.

Houston (Crawford's hometown team) could decide they have enough catching prospects that they can let Jason Castro go before his bill comes due. If the Dodgers pay basically all of Carl's salary, and throw in a prospect of our own, they'd oblige.

I focus on catchers because A.J. Ellis is getting old too, and given the starting point for his skills, a little decline makes him a backup pretty quick.

But more likely, it's just some other overpaid, not-very-good-anymore guy. That can work out just because the Dodgers have too many outfielders and someone else needs an outfield but has too many relief pitchers or something. Rafael Soriano, Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton all fit that bill.

What do the Dodgers need besides more overpaid ex-closers or young catchers? Backup infielders.

Wouldn't you know it, an expensive backup infielder got designated for assignment on Wednesday. Jeff Keppinger is a decent second baseman/not very good third baseman/emergency everything else who is owed about $7.5M this year and next, and might be expected to get on base at a .310 clip and slug .360. Not much of a fit. The White Sox also have reliever Matt Lindstrom earning $4M, and they'd probably like to get rid of him too. That's the kind of "why bother" package the Dodgers could probably get in trade. You have to really believe in Pederson to go down that road.

The Diamondbacks probably want to get rid of Didi Gregorius and probably want hometown, high-grit Ethier, if they can get over their seething resentment of all things Dodger. The Dodgers do not have a credible MLB-ready replacement shortstop right now, so that's a need they could fill.

It's hard to make a match, but the Dodgers have shown a willingness to get creative. If they give up on re-signing Hanley Ramirez, for example, there's some blockbusters to be put together. The Tigers and Yankees would very much like to have that conversation with us and that's a situation where you can make them take an albatross contract if they want to get the deal done (poor Crawford, shuffled as an unwanted throw-in from one rich team to another!). Of course, that gets back to the Dodgers not having a credible MLB-ready replacement SS right now and neither do those teams. So, even in this sad fantasy world where Ramirez doesn't see us anymore, it's still hard to get a match without a third team.

Photo credit: File photo

Dodgers still project to win NL West comfortably, despite slow start

Preseason, I felt confident the Dodgers would run away with the National League West. Partially because they have so much talent, and partially because nobody else does. But the Giants and Rockies are off to great starts, the Dodgers are showing some holes and the Dodgers are in (gasp!) third place as of the morning of May 5. Do we expect a real race from either of these teams?

Well, first suppose the preseason projections stand unchanged, and I still expect each team to win the percentage of their remaining roughly 130 games that I originally expected them to win of 162. Add that to their current win total and where would things sit?

	Preseason	To-date	To-date + preseason
LA	98	18-15	96
SF	82	21-11	87
COL	78	20-14	82

The Dodgers have such a talent advantage (ignoring any information learned this season about all the respective players), they would still run away with it. But of course, everything is not going exactly as expected -- we should incorporate the information from this season into the forward projections. Some guys are doing much better than expected (Dee Gordon, Charlie Blackmon, Brandon Crawford) while others are doing much worse (Carl Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, Carlos Gonzalez). Some players are injured and not expected back until a certain time. Playing time is being allocated differently than expected, etc. So, I want to update the projections for these three teams, and see what to expect.

	Dodgers	Giants	Rockies
Adjusted Up	Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Haren, Dee Gordon  (offense & defense), Zack Greinke, Brandon League	Michael Morse, Tim Hudson	Justin Morneau, Troy Tulowitzki  (Offense & Defense), Charlie Blackmon
Adjusted Down	Hanley Ramirez  (offense & defense), Matt Kemp  (offense & defense), Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Kenley Jansen, Brian Wilson.	Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Vogelsong, Marco Scutaro

So if I knew then what I "know" now about all the players' performance, I would take two games each from the Dodgers and Giants while giving two to the Rockies. Bottom line, counting the performance to date and the updated projections, I still see the Dodgers comfortably advantaged although with only half the lead I once thought they'd have.

	Going Forward	To-date	To-date + Forward
LA	95	18-15	93
SF	80	21-11	85
COL	80	20-14	83

Why have the first 33 games or so not played out entirely like expected? Basically, the Dodgers are doing all the right things, just not at all the right times. Some research by Dave Cameron revealed the Dodgers could have reasonably been expected to score 15 more runs and allow seven fewer had the number of each event (home run, walk, stolen base, great catch, etc.) been the same but the order been shuffled. This 22-run deficit due to sequencing is the largest in the majors. The Giants, conversely, have nine more runs than their context-free play would suggest. The Rockies are just getting a bit lucky with balls falling in for them. Baseball's a funny game in short time; there's a reason the season is so long.

Photo credit: File photo

Dodgers April in review: Not bad despite injuries and underperformers

One month in to the 2014 season, the Dodgers are doing fairly well, but not as good as might have been hoped. Some health/regression things that could very well have gone wrong have not. A few things are even going much better than expected. A 15-12 record is OK, that's a 90-win pace, but it's been against a weaker stretch of the schedule.

The under-performance is explainable by a little bit of bad luck/hits not falling at the right time, and a few guys performing like they do not belong in the major leagues at all.

Let's start with some things going great:

• Adrian Gonzalez has opposite field power again! Dude is crushing. .300 with 30 HR looks very possible. 
• Dee Gordon not only doesn't suck, he's been one of the best players in baseball. There's some luck in there, but he is a different player at the plate and in the field this year. He is playing the game on his terms instead of being overwhelmed. A lot of his errors at shortstop came from not setting his feet properly and making a rushed throw. At second base, he makes as many fielding errors, but the extra time for the shorter throw let's him not rush, and he's cut down the throwing errors (to zero, actually). I don't know that his footwork is any better, but he looks like he might be good enough to play second base in the majors if he keeps hitting enough.  His BABIP is about .400, so he's not keeping that up, but what he is doing well is hitting the ball on the ground, and not popping up.  Also, he's 4-for-7 on bunting for hits.
• Zack Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Every time he goes out there, the Dodgers are very likely to win. He's supposed to be really good, but he's been great.

Things that could have been a lot worse:

• Josh Beckett is healthy and contributing, although he's gotten pretty lucky, with opposing hitters only having a BABIP of .173.
• Dan Haren is looking very good. The steal of the winter for sure. There were two stories about why his second half was strong last year after the horrid first half. One was homesickness in the first half, the other was leaning on his splitter more.  Well, he's at home, and he's not really throwing the splitter that much (he's actually gone to the curve a bit more). 
• Matt Kemp is healthy and contributing at the plate. He's striking out too much, but otherwise right back where he was a couple years ago.
• Hanley Ramirez's 2013 was not a total mirage, although last year's monster home runs have turned into doubles this year.
• Juan Uribe's 2013 was not a total mirage. He's another one of the best players in the league right now.
• Yasiel Puig has continued to make counter-adjustments to the book on him, and is hitting in line with last year (once you discount some of the magic/luck from his 2013) while playing great defense (even accounting for the occasional missed cut-off man replayed on SportsCenter 30 times).  
• Brandon League just could have been a lot worse. He actually looks like mediocre again, which is a huge step up.

Complete disasters:

• The Dodgers' catchers have a triple slash line of .156/.236/.177 and we head into May with Miguel Olivo
• Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier have combined for .211 / .263 / .299 
• Ramirez and Kemp look terrible in the field. Unacceptably terrible. 
• Clayton Kershaw has been on the DL, replaced by Paul Maholm, who's managed to underperform even the low expectations placed on him. 
• Brian Wilson is a hot mess

Kershaw is coming back next week. A.J. Ellis hopefully is back soon. Crawford and Ethier cannot possibly have both turned so bad so fast. And if they have, hey Joc Pederson has an 1.167 OPS in AAA. And Scott Van Slyke might even deserve a mention up above for things going great. Come to think of it, a Pederson/Van Slyke platoon might be the best team we could put on the field right now, if any kind of trades were out there for Crawford and Ethier.

Photo credit: File photo