Dodgers need A.J. Ellis and Tim Federowicz to improve pitch-framing

Pitch framing is all the rage these days, thanks to advanced statistics and guys like Ben Lindbergh (Baseball Prospectus) and Jeff Sullivan (FanGraphs).

I remember being taught a little about the art whilst playing baseball growing up. It's not as easy as some may think, but it's something that should be learned and catchers should at least attempt to improve as their careers progress.

Enter A.J. Ellis and Tim Federowicz. While they're both really good at throwing runners out, their pitch framing leaves a lot to be desired.

From Grantland (May 15):

"'We can make you better if you have an open mind and you're willing to work and willing to try certain things,' says (Steve) Yeager, who mentions Russell Martin, A.J. Ellis, and Tim Federowicz as some of his best students. '(You've) got to want to get back there and take the time of squatting and blocking balls, transferring balls, throwing balls, receiving balls, getting your hands beat up, getting foul tips into you. You've got to realize that you're going to get beat up physically back there.'"

There was also a footnote to accompany this quote:

"(Max) Marchi's stats suggest that Ellis still has more work to do: He's more than 30 runs below average since the start of his career, though he's shown some positive progression. Between Ellis and backup Ramon Hernandez, who rates below everyone but (Ryan) Doumit, the Dodgers are costing themselves a lot of extra strikes."

Overall, Ellis is a not great at framing, despite learning from a former Dodger in Steve Yeager. He was good at pitch framing, and it showed with former Dodger Russell Martin. Martin is one of the game's finest pitch-framers.

As of June 11, Ellis was 58 runs worse than average when it came to stealing strikes, making him the seventh-worst framer in the game at the time.

Here's an example of some shoddy pitch-framing by Ellis during the 2013 season.

And an explanation from Lindbergh:

"The bulk of Ellis’ body doesn’t move much while the pitch is in flight, but seemingly on every pitch, he initially lowers his glove, then brings it back up, which has to distract the umpire. He also catches this one awkwardly, rolling the glove over instead of just shifting it toward the inside part of the plate without changing its orientation. (Zack) Greinke didn’t miss the target by that much."

Despite his shortcomings, Ellis "clutched up" his framing. He was the seventh-best pitch-framer last season with runners in scoring position. He got 9 percent of called strikes when it mattered most. Odd, but that means there's hope.

Federowicz was the sixth-worst framer overall, getting just 7.6 percent of called strikes in 2013. He's good at blocking pitches, but his framing needs a lot of work.

An example:

And a brief, yet apt, analysis from Lindbergh:

"Similar to (Chris) Stewart's, but even stabbier."

I bring all this up because Sullivan did some framing projections (admittedly, on his part, they weren't terribly logical) over at FanGraphs on Thursday, and they weren't pretty for the Dodgers. They're projected to not get 0.67 strikes per game due to framing, which would be a 0.12 decline from 2013. The -0.67 is good for fifth-worst in baseball. At least the change from 2013 to 2014 is almost stagnant.

Luckily, the Dodgers have the pitchers to make up for this framing deficiency. Still, if the Dodger backstops could help the hurlers, it'd be best for all involved.

Photo credit: EephusBlue, Paint the Corners

Chris Reed the only prospect to represent Dodgers in Futures Game

The 2012 Futures Game rosters were announced today and London-born (say wha?) Chris Reed will represent the Dodgers in Kansas City this year.

It's no surprise to see Reed headed to KC, as he's had a really good season so far: 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 9.2 K/9 between High-A Rancho Cucamonga and Double-A Chattanooga.

Reed, 22, has a good fastball that sits in the low-90s, a mid-80s slider and a showme changeup. He was the Dodgers' first-round draft pick in 2011 -- a pick I wasn't particularly thrilled with. It remains to be seen if he's going to pan out, but he has the stuff. His stamina and durability are the concerns.

While it's not a surprise to see him pitching well, it is a little surprising to see he's the only Dodger prospect selected to play in the game.

Guys like Zach Lee, Joc Pederson, Blake Smith and Alex Castellanos all deserved consideration. Lee is widely regarded as the Dodgers' best prospect, Pederson as the Dodgers' best hitting prospect and Smith and Castellanos as guys who have a lot of ability. I could see guys like Lee and Pederson getting the nod in the next year or two.

The Futures Game has been in existence since 1999 and is played the Sunday before the MLB All-Star Game at that year's venue.

Here are the Dodgers' Futures Game participants from the past:

• 1999: Chin-Feng Chen, Luke Prokopec
• 2000: Chen, Randey Dorame
• 2001: Ricardo Rodriguez
• 2002: Victor Diaz, Rodriguez
• 2003: Franklin Gutierrez, Edwin Jackson
• 2004: Joel Guzman, Koyie Hill
• 2005: Andy LaRoche, Russell Martin
• 2006: Guzman, Chin-lung Hu
• 2007: Clayton Kershaw, Hu (MVP)
• 2008: Ivan De Jesus
• 2009: Pedro Baez
• 2010: Baez, Dee Gordon
• 2011: Alfredo Silverio

The only players on this list to not make it to the Major Leagues in some capacity are Dorame, Baez and Silverio. Dormae has since retired, Baez is 24 and in Double-A and Silverio was probably going to get a call-up in September if he wasn't in a car accident in January and had subsequent Tommy John Surgery in May.

So, the Futures Game is the minor-league All-Star game to watch. The best of the best participate in this game and usually guys who are destined to be MLB players at some point.

The game is on July 8 at 2 p.m. Pacific time.

Photo credit: Courtesy of Brandon Lennox, True Blue L.A.

Grading the Dodgers' off-season

I know the off-season isn't officially over yet, but the Dodgers have done about all they're going to do this winter, save for some non-roster invites and maybe another veteran signing -- Eric Chavez.

So I'm going to grade the Dodgers' off-season moves and give brief explanations of each. We'll go in chronological order.

Oct. 19: Ted Lilly re-signed for 3 years, $33 million.
Comment: At the time, it felt like a bit much. Three months later, it's still a bit much, but it was a decent deal.
Grade: C+

Nov. 15: Hiroki Kuroda re-signed for 1 year, $12 million
Comment: This was a great deal in terms of value and contract length. Kuroda could have gotten a 2- or 3-year deal on the open market, but his comfort level in L.A. seemed to be the determining factor.
Grade: A-

Nov. 26: Jon Garland signed for 1 year, $5 million with a club option for 2012 ($8 million)
Comment: This deal surprised many -- not only that a deal was made but the fact the Dodgers were getting Garland for $5 million. He must pitch 190 innings for his 2012 option to vest.
Grade: B

Nov. 30: Juan Uribe signed for 3 years, $21 million
Comment: This deal blew then and it still blows now. There is no way this player should have gotten this deal. By far the worst deal of the off-season.
Grade: F

Nov. 30: Ryan Theriot traded to St. Louis for Blake Hawksworth
Comment: Theriot was going to be non-tendered, so to get anything even potentially useful for him was a plus. Hawksworth could make the 'pen out of Spring Training.
Grade: B

Dec. 3: Declined arbitration to Russell Martin and re-signed Rod Barajas to a 1 year, $3.25 million contract
Comment: In hindsight, this might have been a mistake, considering the Dodgers spent $3.25 million on Barajas. Still, the Dodgers didn't want to risk paying an injured, regressing catcher in excess of $6 million. Barajas got $500,000 out of Spring Training last year, yet GM Ned Colletti felt it necessary to give him a $2.75 million raise.
Grade: B- and D-, respectively

Dec. 9: Vicente Padilla signed for 1 year, $2 million (plus incentives)
Comment: His contract can reach $8 million with 33 starts or as much as $6 million with certain relief bonuses. This, like the Garland signing, was a bit surprising.
Grade: B+

Dec. 11: Tony Gwynn signed for 1 year, $675,000
Comment: This was a decent signing at the time. Now, Gwynn will compete for an everyday job in the Dodgers' lineup.
Grade: B-

Dec. 14: Dioner Navarro signed for 1 year, $1 million
Comment: The Dodgers were desperate here. With Martin gone and Barajas not a full-time catcher, they panicked and, for some reason, gave Navarro $1 million to be the backup. Curious move, especially with A.J. Ellis making peanuts and could possibly out-produce Navarro.
Grade: D-

Dec. 16: Matt Guerrier signed for 3 years, $12 million
Comment: This makes almost less sense than the Uribe deal. The Dodgers weren't exactly hurting in middle relief, especially with Ronald Belisario's Venezuelan League performance. To give a mediocre reliever who doesn't strike many batters out a 3-year deal is a bad allocation of limited resources.
Grade: D

Dec. 27: Chin-lung Hu traded to the New York Mets for Mike Antonini
Comment: Hu could have been the second infielder off the bench for the Dodgers, but it appears the organization grew tired of him and was likely to non-tender him. Antonini is left-handed, which is about the best thing one can say about him.
Grade: C

Jan. 20: Marcus Thames signed for 1 year, $1 million (plus incentives)
Comment: This was one of the Dodgers' better off-season signings, despite Thames' horrific defense. His right-handed pop will be a welcome sight off the Dodger bench.
Grade: B+

The Dodgers also had a bunch of minor-league signings and non-roster invites (not counting prospects.

Juan Castro
J.D. Closser
Roman Colon
Dana Eveland
Jon Huber
Gabe Kapler
Trent Oeltjen
Tim Redding
Eugenio Velez
Oscar Villareal

I'd be surprised if any of these guys make the name out of Spring Training. The Dodgers usually find one or two NRIs to take into the season, but the 25-man roster is pretty full as it is, so that might not be the case this year. If I had to bet money on one guy making the team, it'd be Castro because of his ability to play shortstop -- even though he's the worst player on the list.

Overall grade: C (2.18 GPA)
- The Uribe, Guerrier and Barajas deals really bring down the GPA. And I think the GPA is about in line with what most think about the Dodgers' offseason: Average, but nothing special.

It's a shame, too, after starting off well with the shoring up of the starting rotation.

Russell Martin says 'personal' issues cause of decline

Former Dodger catcher Russell Martin told the National Post of Canada that "personal issues" were the cause of his decline in the last few seasons.

"There's some things that you keep for yourself," Martin said. "Those distractions, they're personal -- personal issues in my life that not everybody needs to know about."

This is a quote from the story. I respect Martin's right to privacy and I'm not trying to pry or even figure out said personal issues. As he said, not everyone needs to know about those issues. However, unless it was something tragic or serious, can we really expect it to be the sole blame for his decline?

I have said my piece on Martin's decline. While Martin is probably to classy to say it, his overuse as a Dodger probably led to his decline as well.

I have a soft spot in my heart for catchers. I really had envisioned Martin being the leader of this organization and having his No. 55 hanging in between Jackie Robinson and Don Drysdale. Obviously those visions were premature.

He's probably not going to reach that status, but he could get back to respectability -- and I hope he does.

The Dodgers will have to see if the combination of Rod Barajas and Dioner Navarro can at least match Martin's production in recent years. Sadly, I don't think the combo will.

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Danny Knobler of CBS Sports said the Dodgers are interested in Marcus Thames to fill the need for a right-handed-hitting outfielder.

This needs to happen. Thames' defense, while atrocious, couldn't really be that much worse part-time than Manny Ramirez was full-time in left field. Plus, he could play 1B in a pinch. His power is intriguing and should be intriguing enough to overlook his severe defensive deficiencies.

Knobler also notes the Dodgers have "moved on" from Scott Podsednik. Thank God!

Dodgers sign Matt Guerrier to 3-year deal

Updated 1:28 p.m.

And the hits keep on comin'.

The Dodgers inexplicably signed former Minnesota Twins' reliever Matt Guerrier to a 3-year deal, $12 million deal today, as reported by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

On the surface, Guerrier looks like a decent pickup. Then you factor in his age (32), the number of games pitched (most in baseball after Pedro Feliciano) and his low K/9 rate (5.9 for his career) and it isn't a great deal.

New stuff: And most of all, the contract. Why on God's green earth is Guerrier getting a 3-year deal? It's not like right-handed middle relievers are rare. This just makes no sense.

Ned Colletti strikes again. There is absolutely no need to dump $4 million a year (though I'm sure some will be deferred) on a middle reliever. Guerrier has a nice ERA for his career (3.38), but his peripherals are not great.

The only good thing is Guerrier has been better the past two seasons than he has his entire career. He has a 2.75 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 2.34 BB/9 in his last two seasons. However, his K/9 is less-than ideal (5.4).

And if you're a fan of sabermetics, FanGraphs says his numbers are likely to be worse in L.A.

Then again, he has averaged 76 innings pitched per season since 2005, so it wouldn't shock me one bit to see him end up on the disabled list during his tenure as a Dodger.

If Guerrier was brought in on a 1-year deal, this would be easier to take. But he's here for three years and probably will not live up to the $4 million a season he'll average annually.

As of now, the bullpen looks like this:

• Vicente Padilla
  
• Blake Hawksworth
• Matt Guerrier
• Kenley Jansen
• Hong-Chih Kuo
• Jonathan Broxton

That leaves probably one spot; preferably for a lefty. With the way Scott Elbert pitched in the Arizona Fall League, he should have a great look at the last spot in the bullpen. That would leave 2009 standout Ronald Belisario out of a job. And what to do with Ramon Troncoso? I think he still has options, so it isn't out of the realm of possibility that he starts the season in Triple-A.

Guerrier joins the list of terrible signings by Colletti:

Juan Uribe - $5 million
Rod Barajas - $3.25 million
Dioner Navarro - $1 million

You're telling me with $13.25 million, the Dodgers could not have signed or traded for an impact player? Because none of the guys above are impact players.

Colletti gets money to try to improve the team and he goes and makes it potentially worse than 2010. OK, maybe not worse, but the team isn't significantly better right now than it was in 2010.

Granted, there would be other holes to fill, but finding patchwork pieces is a lot easier than landing an impact player. It just isn't a good allocation of the team's limited resources.

The signings of Hiroki Kuroda, Jon Garland and Vicente Padilla were nice signings. Ted Lilly's deal is looking a little worse than it did at first, but it's acceptable. Every other signing was a joke and there were cheaper alternatives available.

I never knew someone could be so incompetent -- and this is the same guy who signed Juan Pierre for five years and an injured Jason Schmidt for three years.

Ownership cannot change fast enough. I don't care who ends up owning the Dodgers (for the most part) as long as he or she gives Colletti his walking papers.

Until then, we're stuck with these medial moves by one Mr. Colletti.

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Former Dodger catcher Russell Martin passed his physical and finalized his 1-year, $4 million contract with the New York Yankees today.

He signed for $200,000 less than the Dodgers offered in guaranteed money.

Looks like he underestimated the market and the interest in him.

Oh well. I still wish Martin well. He was once my favorite Dodger, as I'm partial to catchers. Perhaps I'll have to do another installment of "What could have been," featuring Martin.

Fare the well, Russell Martin, Dodgers cut ties with catcher

Russell Martin was one of the most promising young catchers in baseball, mentioned in the same breath as Joe Mauer and Brian McCann. Now, he's an afterthought -- and a free agent.

The Dodgers effectively ended their relationship with Russell Martin on Thursday night when the declined to tender him a contract.

They could try to re-sign him, but it's highly unlikely.

Martin will catch on (my apologies) somewhere else. Rumors has it the Red Sox could be interested in his services. They lost Victor Martinez and just re-signed Jason Varitek, who is no longer a starting-caliber catcher in the Major Leagues. Theo Epstein loves guys who can get on base, and Martin still has a good walk rate.

However, his health must be a major concern. With a weak catching market, one would think the Dodgers would have been more inclined to bring Martin back. If his hip isn't kosher, there's no sense in the Dodgers spending as little as $4.04 million or up to $6- or $7 million for a guy who's hurt and would give below-average production.

So what will the Dodgers do? They've been rumored to be interested in Varitek, A.J. Pierzynski and Yorvit Torrealba -- all of whom have signed this off-season. That pretty much leaves Rod Barajas and Miguel Olivo.

A.J. Ellis is a lock to make the roster. He had a solid September/October, so there's hope for him as a backup. A platoon of Ellis and a guy like Barajas/Olivo could work, but only if the Dodgers acquire a big-time bat. With Adam Dunn signing with the White Sox today, their options are dwindling.

Barring a trade to bring in a catcher, the Dodgers are going to be light offensively at the catcher position.

Update (9:17 p.m.): Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times tweeted, saying the Dodgers are close to re-signing Rod Barajas.

Update (9:24 p.m.): From Hernandez, Martin's last proposal to the Dodgers: $5 million plus $1 million in incentives. He also said the Dodgers remain interested in re-signing Martin and if he comes back, it could be as a part-time catcher. Whether that means he'd play 100 games at catcher or get some time at 3B, we don't know.

Update (9:46 p.m.): Hernandez tweets, saying Barajas' deal is for one year.

Martin was on the fast track to stardom before regressing greatly the past two seasons. I've ripped him enough. Despite that, I'm still going to miss him. I've always had a soft spot for catchers, as that was my primary position playing baseball growing up.

I wish Martin luck with whatever team he ends up with. The hip injury won't be easy to bounce back from -- especially for a catcher.

The Dodgers also non-tendered George Sherrill and Trent Oeltjen. Good riddance to Sherrill, unless he wants to come back for $1 million to be the LOOGY (left-handed-one-out-only-guy).

2010 Los Angeles Dodger off-season preview, part II

I remember when the "kids" were just kids.

Chad Billingsley was making his debut in Petco Park, throwing 98 pitches in 5 1/3 innings while earning a no-decision.

James Loney started Opening Day 2006 at first base for the Dodgers and came up with five triples in his first 111 plate appearances while wearing the great No. 29.

Russell Martin came up to replace the injured Dioner Navarro and had a .792 OPS in his age-23 season.

Clayton Kershaw, baby-faced and all, was the most exciting prospect to come up through the Dodgers' minor league system in at least a 15 years.

Hong-Chih Kuo had one of the most electric minor league debuts before undergoing two Tommy John surgeries before his age-26 season.

Ramon Troncoso was a garbage-time reliever.

Ryan Theriot played for the Cubs. Not much to go into here.

And George Sherrill... well, let's not go there.

Now, they are no longer the kids. They are the core of the team. They are the veterans. Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton are included, but they signed two-year deals last winter, buying them out of this year's arbitration.

Aside from Martin and Sherrill, the rest of the arbitration-eligible Dodgers will be tendered contracts. It doesn't guarantee them a spot on the 2011 roster (trades), but the Dodgers will continue to invest in these guys.

Here are the arbitration-eligible players and what they made in 2010:

Third-timers
Martin - $5.05M
Sherrill - $4.5M

Second-timers
Billingsley - $3.85M
Kuo - $0.95M
Loney - $3.1M
Theriot - $2.6M

First-timers
Kershaw - $440,000
Troncoso - $416,000

The Dodgers can go a few directions here. Let's start with Billingsley and Kershaw.

Billingsley: He will get a substantial raise after a solid season. He could make in the neighborhood of $7 million. The Dodgers could make a long-term investment in him by offering a 3-year, $27 million deal. It would buy out Billingsley's remaining arbitration years. There is risk, however, as Billingsley's conditioning isn't the best. But he seems to be back on track after a 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP second half, which included a shutout of the Giants on July 21. What to do: 3 years, $27 million with a $12 million option for 2014

Kershaw: He is going to get a Billingsley-esque raise at worst. Chad got roughly a $3.4 million raise. Kershaw is everything the Dodgers have expected him to be and more. He is the ace of this staff. He is a true ace. For that, they should reward him, much like the Red Sox, Brewers and Blue Jays rewarded their young aces -- Jon Lester, Yovani Gallard and Rickey Romero (respectively). All three got 5-year, $30- to $30.1 million extensions at this point in their careers with options for the sixth year at $13 million.

I would not be opposed to something similar to this. It would lock up a guy whose salary is guaranteed to skyrocket. It would give him long-term security and show the Dodgers are not afraid to make a commitment. What to do: 5 years, $32 million with $13 million for 2016

Troncoso: I could honestly care less if he comes back. He had a poor 2010 season. He gave up more home runs this season (seven) than he had in his entire career (five). His peripherals are poor. He had a solid 2009 season -- 2.72 ERA despite a 1.41 WHIP and 1.62 K/BB ratio. What to do: Non-tender

Loney: He is in line for a raise, despite the worst season of his career. He could make anywhere from $5- to $7 million. With Kim Ng, though, the Dodgers are likely to pay what they offer (that goes for all arbitration-eligible players). What to do: Offer arbitration

Kuo: He will get a hefty raise. He could make the $4.5 million Sherrill made this season. Provided he stays healthy, it'd be money well spent. What to do: Offer arbitration

Theriot: If it were up to me, he'd be gone. But he's one of those "gritty" and "scrappy" players Ned Colletti seems to love so much. He could make $3- to $5 million in arbitration. What to do: Non-tender

Sherrill: It's amazing this guy lasted the season with the Dodgers. He was about as bad as one could be. Still, he got lefties out (.192 BAA). He's a LOOGY (left-handed-one-out-only-guy), but he isn't worth what he would get in arbitration. What to do: Non-tender

Martin: This is by far the toughest case of all. He's going to get $7- or $8 million in arbitration despite his epic decline. With A.J. Ellis performing well toward the end of the season and Rod Barajas mashing in limited action, the Dodgers might be able to non-tender Martin. If they don't, they'll have quite a financial commitment to a guy who provides no pop anymore. Martin was once seen as a potential face of the franchise; a leader. Now, he's forgettable. What to do: Non-tender

Next up: Potential free agent targets

Most disappointing players and prospects

The 2010 season, while not over, has been a disappointment for the Dodgers. Despite not making any major moves in the off-season, the core of a 95-win team returned. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier were coming off career seasons and Clayton Kershaw established himself as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.

But it just hasn't come together as some thought it would, and should, have.

This is a list of my three most disappointing players and prospects in the Dodger organization.

MLB players

C Russell Martin
- I have railed on Martin enough, but suffice it to say, he has been going downhill for the last nearly three years. And now he's out for the rest of the season.

3B Casey Blake
- Blake has performed like one would expect a 36-year-old third basemen to perform. After a solid .280/.363/.468/.832 line in 2009, Blake has completely fallen off from those numbers. He's putting up .247/.324/.401/.725 this season while striking out in 26.1 percent of his at-bats, which is up from 22.4 percent for his career. His WAR was a surprising 6.1 last season. This year, it's 1.3. There's no doubt he's been one of the most disappointing.

RHP Ronald Belisario
- A key cog in the Dodger bullpen in 2009, Belisario was late getting into big league camp because of Visa issues. Then just when it seemed he was getting back to the 2009 Belisario, he is placed on the restricted list for unknown reasons (rumors are it was for substance/alcohol abuse). If Belisario had been a steady contributor to the 'pen, the Dodgers might not have had to waste resources on Octavio Dotel. He is slated to come back Tuesday in Philadelphia. He has nearly two months to win over the management.

Just missed: RHP Ramon Troncoso

Prospects

RHP Chris Withrow
- Withrow was my No. 3 prospect coming into the season and No. 2 by Baseball America. He had a taste of Double-A last year (27 1/3 innings, 8.6 K/9, 3.95 ERA), but his full season in Double-A is a tad disconcerting. His numbers are worse across the board: ERA up to 5.29; WHIP up to 1.61; K/BB down to 1.73; K/9 down to 8.6; H/9 up to 9.6; BB/9 up to 4.9. One thing he has working in his favor is his age. He's only 21 and playing against advanced competition. Next season will determine whether or not he's a future No. 2 starter.

RHP Ethan Martin
- Martin has disappointed much like Withrow. At A+ Inland Empire, Martin is putting up worse numbers than Withrow -- 5.61 ERA, 1.67 WHIP; 1.4 K/BB, 8.2 K/9, 9.1 H/9, 5.9 BB/9 -- at a lower level. Like Withrow, Martin is just 21 years old, so he has time to turn it around. However, he has a lot of work to do to get back to elite prospect status (was No. 2 on my Top 30 and No. 9 on my Midseason Top 15).

RHP Josh Lindblom
- Lindblom went from potentially making the major league roster out of Spring Training in 2009 to regressing mightily in Triple-A. He is strictly working out of the bullpen now, which is where most predicted he'd end up. He has a lofty 6.18 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and a scary 12.9 H/9 at Albuquerque. He dropped from No. 4 on my list in November to outside the top 15 on my midseason list. Despite the troubles, he still has a chance to be a solid MLB reliever.

Just missed: OF Kyle Russell

I'm not all doom-and-gloom, though. Stay tuned later in the week for my most surprising list -- both major leaguers and prospects.

Russell Martin done for season, Adam Dunn claimed by Dodgers?

Is he done with the Dodgers?

With his failure to slide into home plate on a sacrifice fly attempt on Tuesday night, Russell Martin effectively ended his season, and potentially his Dodger career.

Martin's poor performance is well-documented (not just by this blog). That, coupled with his rising price tag ($5.05 million this year, could rise to more than $6 million in 2011 before unrestricted free agency in 2012) is reason to believe the Dodgers might go in another direction behind the dish.

Two years ago, no one would have thought this was a remote possibility. Now, it makes a lot of sense.
The in-house alternatives leave much to be desired. A.J. Ellis is organizational depth at best and the rest of the Dodger catching prospects are in the low minors -- none of whom are impressive.

And no, trading Lucas May was still not a bad move. He is potentially much better with the bat than Ellis, but his defense leaves a ton to be desired. Ellis definitely has the edge in defense.

The free agent alternatives are decent. The best of the bunch appears to be John Buck, who made the American League All-Star team as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays this season. Other candidates include Miguel Olivo (club option) and Yorvit Torrealba (mutual option), Josh Bard and Gerald Laird. The Dodgers, if they chose to ditch Martin, could also look for a replacement via trade -- either major leaguers or minor leaguers close to the majors.

Martin, once a fan-favorite, is now no more than a Punch 'n Judy hitter with a decent -- not great -- glove. This guy was destined for stardoom after his first season. Everyone thought he was the Dodgers' catcher for the next 10-12 years. Fans and the like wanted the Dodgers to lock him up long-term. Martin's agent wouldn't have any of that. In hindsight, that might be a good thing.

5:11 p.m. update: Martin's career path is eerily similar to Jason Kendall, who was considered one of the best catchers in the NL early in his career. Thanks to Scanman33 for bringing this to my attention.

Data courtesy of Fangraphs. The first graph is each player's wOBA by year (Martin is green, Kendall is orange, league-average is blue) and the second is each player's wOBA by age. Martin actually started declining quicker than Kendall.

Whatever happens, Martin's tenure as a Dodger has been up and down, with it being down for the last 2 1/2 years. He'll definitely catch on (pardon the pun) with another team (Boston?). However, his days wearing No. 55 in Dodger Blue could -- and should -- be coming to an end.

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Dunn claimed by LA?

Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reported the Giants were not awarded the waiver claim on Washington Nationals' 1B/OF Adam Dunn.

"My speculation on who got the waiver claim, and you can call this an educated guess based on some things I heard around the league: It was the Dodgers."

With Manny Ramirez still down, Dunn seems like a viable replacement. However, the Nats were asking for a ransom prior to the July 31 trade deadline, so there's no reason to expect he gets traded now. The Dodgers won't give up the necessary prospects it would take to get him and the Nats aren't going to let him go for salary relief, as they'll either sign him to an extension in the off-season or collect two first-round picks as compensation because of Dunn's Type-A status.

The Dodgers are all but out of the race, so this move is just to block other NL West teams (SF and San Diego) from putting a claim in on him.

The decline of Russell Martin

Prospects come into the majors with hype and potential. Some live up to the expectations, some do not.

But how does a guy like Russell Martin go from one of the best catchers in the league to a mediocre -- at best -- player in just two years?

Martin burst onto the scene in 2006. He hit .282/.355/.436 as a rookie catcher for a playoff team. The Dodgers traded their everyday catcher before Martin, Dioner Navarro, because of the way Martin played.

Martin's 2007 season was worthy of all the accolades he earned -- his first All-Start berth, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. He hit .293/.374/.469 with an OPS+ of 116 (100 is average). For a catcher to be putting up those numbers was great, as catching was, and still is, a defense-first position.

Then things went south. Way south.

In 2008, Martin regressed a bit. He hit .280/.385/.396, good for an above-average OPS+ of 108. However, Martin's extra basehits dropped from 54 in 2007 to 38 in 2008. Many attributed the decline to the number of innings Martin had caught in his first three season (3507 innings as a catcher -- most in MLB).

There were big expectations for Martin going into 2009, but he never even came close to living up to them.

He hit .250/.352/.329 for a career-low .680 OPS and OPS+ of 86. He hit just seven home runs and had 26 extra basehits. And So far in 2010, Martin his hitting .241/.349/.327 with 13 extra basehits.

Martin's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) mark has fluctuated as well. He started with a 2.7 as a rookie, went up to 5.8 and has decreased every year since (4.6, 2.2, 1.5). Those numbers are acceptable for a catcher, but not a guy who showed as much as he did early on in his career.

Martin also hasn't been great behind the plate since winning the Gold Glove in 2007. He's been serviceable.

But serviceable isn't what the Dodgers or their fans expect from a guy who started his career with such incredible promise. He was once looked at as the leader of the team and untouchable in trade talks. Now, he's almost an afterthought.

His overuse behind the plate can partially explain the offensive decline, but what else is the culprit?

It isn't unreasonable to suspect Martin may have used performance-enhancing drugs to put up the numbers he did. So many major and minor leaguers have been nailed for PED use since MLB cracked down with stricter testing. It was about the time Martin's numbers started to decline.

I'm not saying he did it, but I wouldn't be surprised (nor should anyone in this era of baseball) if he did.

Editor's note: I am not accusing Russell Martin of using performance-enhancing drugs of any kind.

It's sad because Martin was always one of my favorite Dodgers. Now, I'm not really excited when he comes up to the plate. He'll make a nice play on defense every once in awhile, but he's doesn't have that same buzz around him he used to. He was on his way to superstardom.

Then again, if this is the real Russell Martin, sobeit.