My Dodgers' 25-man roster prediction (updated)

With Opening Day just more than a week away, the Dodgers' roster is beginning to take shape. However, there are a few guys making late pushes to secure spots on the 25-man roster.

Here is my prediction for what the Dodgers' roster will look like come March 31.

(Opening Day starters in italics)

Catchers (2*)
Rod Barajas
Hector Gimenez
Dioner Navarro* - Moved to DL

Infielders (6*)
Jamey Carroll
Ivan DeJesus* - Added due to Navarro injury
Rafael Furcal
James Loney
Juan Uribe
Aaron Miles

Outfielders (6)
Andre Ethier
Jay Gibbons
Tony Gwynn
Matt Kemp
Xavier Paul
Marcus Thames

Rotation (4)
Chad Billingsley
Clayton Kershaw
Hiroki Kuroda
Ted Lilly

Bullpen (7)
Jonathan Broxton
Matt Guerrier
Blake Hawksworth
Kenley Jansen
Hong-Chih Kuo
Mike MacDougal
Ron Mahay

Disabled List
Casey Blake
Jon Garland
Navarro
Vicente Padilla

The immediate concern is with only having one true reserve infielder in Miles. However, Carroll and Uribe's ability to play all over the infield is reassuring.

Now, there are definitely some guys here who weren't expected to make the team out of camp.

• Gimenez: He has hit and showed enough versatility to warrant a roster spot. The fact that he's out of options helps his chances of making the team.
• Gwynn: A throw-away signing by most, Gwynn has a great chance to be the Dodgers' Opening Day center fielder.
• MacDougal: While I don't exactly agree with this, guys like Ramon Troncoso and Scott Elbert haven't done enough to warrant a spot over MacDougal (in management's eyes).
• Mahay: He has been terrible this spring, but Elbert has been worse (control wise). He gets a spot by default to be the second lefty out of the 'pen.
• Miles: He, like Gimenez, has hit enough and has the added bonus of being an infielder.
  

With MacDougal, Mahay and Miles making the team as non-roster invitees, that means they must be added to the 40-man roster. Gimenez is on the 40-man roster.

Here are some members of the Dodgers' current 40-man roster who could get Das Boot if these three make the roster:

• Javy Guerra
• Jamie Hoffmann
  
• John Lindsey
• Travis Schlichting

Gibbons could be on the bubble after his poor spring, too. Mike Petriello of Mike Scicoscia's Tragic Illness wonders if Gibbons is even worth a roster spot. With the Dodgers suddenly having a glut OF/1B types, Gibbons' value is lower than it was when he was re-signed in the winter.

The roster will be in flux for pretty much the entire season. The Dodgers tend to have a few non-roster invites on the Opening Day roster (due in large part to injuries) and things will become more clear when the disabled list guys are healthy enough to return.

Thanks to True Blue L.A. for the roster information.

Grading the Dodgers' off-season

I know the off-season isn't officially over yet, but the Dodgers have done about all they're going to do this winter, save for some non-roster invites and maybe another veteran signing -- Eric Chavez.

So I'm going to grade the Dodgers' off-season moves and give brief explanations of each. We'll go in chronological order.

Oct. 19: Ted Lilly re-signed for 3 years, $33 million.
Comment: At the time, it felt like a bit much. Three months later, it's still a bit much, but it was a decent deal.
Grade: C+

Nov. 15: Hiroki Kuroda re-signed for 1 year, $12 million
Comment: This was a great deal in terms of value and contract length. Kuroda could have gotten a 2- or 3-year deal on the open market, but his comfort level in L.A. seemed to be the determining factor.
Grade: A-

Nov. 26: Jon Garland signed for 1 year, $5 million with a club option for 2012 ($8 million)
Comment: This deal surprised many -- not only that a deal was made but the fact the Dodgers were getting Garland for $5 million. He must pitch 190 innings for his 2012 option to vest.
Grade: B

Nov. 30: Juan Uribe signed for 3 years, $21 million
Comment: This deal blew then and it still blows now. There is no way this player should have gotten this deal. By far the worst deal of the off-season.
Grade: F

Nov. 30: Ryan Theriot traded to St. Louis for Blake Hawksworth
Comment: Theriot was going to be non-tendered, so to get anything even potentially useful for him was a plus. Hawksworth could make the 'pen out of Spring Training.
Grade: B

Dec. 3: Declined arbitration to Russell Martin and re-signed Rod Barajas to a 1 year, $3.25 million contract
Comment: In hindsight, this might have been a mistake, considering the Dodgers spent $3.25 million on Barajas. Still, the Dodgers didn't want to risk paying an injured, regressing catcher in excess of $6 million. Barajas got $500,000 out of Spring Training last year, yet GM Ned Colletti felt it necessary to give him a $2.75 million raise.
Grade: B- and D-, respectively

Dec. 9: Vicente Padilla signed for 1 year, $2 million (plus incentives)
Comment: His contract can reach $8 million with 33 starts or as much as $6 million with certain relief bonuses. This, like the Garland signing, was a bit surprising.
Grade: B+

Dec. 11: Tony Gwynn signed for 1 year, $675,000
Comment: This was a decent signing at the time. Now, Gwynn will compete for an everyday job in the Dodgers' lineup.
Grade: B-

Dec. 14: Dioner Navarro signed for 1 year, $1 million
Comment: The Dodgers were desperate here. With Martin gone and Barajas not a full-time catcher, they panicked and, for some reason, gave Navarro $1 million to be the backup. Curious move, especially with A.J. Ellis making peanuts and could possibly out-produce Navarro.
Grade: D-

Dec. 16: Matt Guerrier signed for 3 years, $12 million
Comment: This makes almost less sense than the Uribe deal. The Dodgers weren't exactly hurting in middle relief, especially with Ronald Belisario's Venezuelan League performance. To give a mediocre reliever who doesn't strike many batters out a 3-year deal is a bad allocation of limited resources.
Grade: D

Dec. 27: Chin-lung Hu traded to the New York Mets for Mike Antonini
Comment: Hu could have been the second infielder off the bench for the Dodgers, but it appears the organization grew tired of him and was likely to non-tender him. Antonini is left-handed, which is about the best thing one can say about him.
Grade: C

Jan. 20: Marcus Thames signed for 1 year, $1 million (plus incentives)
Comment: This was one of the Dodgers' better off-season signings, despite Thames' horrific defense. His right-handed pop will be a welcome sight off the Dodger bench.
Grade: B+

The Dodgers also had a bunch of minor-league signings and non-roster invites (not counting prospects.

Juan Castro
J.D. Closser
Roman Colon
Dana Eveland
Jon Huber
Gabe Kapler
Trent Oeltjen
Tim Redding
Eugenio Velez
Oscar Villareal

I'd be surprised if any of these guys make the name out of Spring Training. The Dodgers usually find one or two NRIs to take into the season, but the 25-man roster is pretty full as it is, so that might not be the case this year. If I had to bet money on one guy making the team, it'd be Castro because of his ability to play shortstop -- even though he's the worst player on the list.

Overall grade: C (2.18 GPA)
- The Uribe, Guerrier and Barajas deals really bring down the GPA. And I think the GPA is about in line with what most think about the Dodgers' offseason: Average, but nothing special.

It's a shame, too, after starting off well with the shoring up of the starting rotation.

Why Justin Sellers should make the Dodgers' Opening Day roster

Not many Dodger fans know who Justin Sellers is. Hell, I didn't really until last season.

But I'm going on record right now: Sellers will make the Dodgers' Opening Day roster.

Why? Well, the short answer is: he isn't Juan Castro.

Sellers, who will turn 25 on Feb. 1, was a sixth-round pick of the Oakland Athletics in 2005. He was never touted for his bat, and it showed in his first four professional seasons -- he never OPS'd higher than .701, which came in his debut season.

In his two seasons with the Dodgers, he has a slash line of .279/.365/.412/.777, mostly at Double- and Triple-A (save for a 24-game stint at Inland Empire). He benefited from the friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League, but he still put up decent numbers at Chattanooga in 2009.

As you can see, he has decent on-base ability. Being a former farmhand of the Oakland Athletics, that isn't surprising.

Sellers' main value, however, is with his glove. He's one of the better fielding shortstops in the minors.

Looking at the current Dodgers' roster, it looks like they could be an infielder short. Other than Jamey Carroll, the Dodgers don't really have another backup infielder -- especially one who can play up the middle.

Conventional Dodger wisdom would lead one to believe Castro and his scrappy veteraness would get the nod over Sellers -- and it's probably going to happen. If/when it happens, it will be a mistake.

Back in December, Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness wrote about the Dodgers' refusal to part ways with one of the worst hitters in Major League history. He said the acquisition would likely cost the Dodgers' Chin-lung Hu -- and he was right. If Hu was still around, this post would either be about him or it would go unwritten.

What do the Dodgers have to lose by giving Sellers a shot as the 25th man? Sure he wouldn't get as much playing time as he would in Triple-A, but he could surprise some folks and be a valuable glove off the Dodgers' bench.

After all, Rafael Furcal isn't exactly the most durable player around.

Here's hoping Sellers doesn't fall flat on his face in Spring Training, thus making my prediction look bad.

#####

Evan of the New Mexico Fan blog, had a nice write-up on Sellers and his being invited to the Dodgers' winter development program.