Editor's note: I've decided to extend this to a five-part series. The added element is free agent pitching targets. Basically, I'm dividing up the free agent section of the series.
This Dodger off-season is just as unsure as the last. The team did not sign any big free agents during the 2009 winter and despite General Manager Ned Colletti's statement the Dodgers would raise payroll, I wouldn't hold my breath, especially after signing Lilly to a $33 million, 3-year contract.
But still, it's fun to speculate.
The Dodgers need power. Period. Andre Ethier seemed primed to break out before breaking his pinkie early in the season. Matt Kemp regressed and James Loney's power may never develop. Casey Blake, despite hitting 17 home runs, had a down year.
Here are some of free agent position players the Dodgers could be interested in.
Catcher - This is only a need if the Dodgers non-tender Martin. They could go with the in-house platoon of Rod Barajas and A.J. Ellis, which wouldn't be that far-fetched.
John Buck, TOR
.281/.314/.489, 20 HR, 66 RBI
- Buck is the consolation prize in the catcher market, which makes it unlikely the Dodgers will make a play for him. He made the All-Star team this season, but only played in 118 games.
Victor Martinez, BOS
.302/.351/.493, 20 HR, 79 RBI
- Martinez is the prize. He's destined for first base in the future, but he has another season or two left behind the dish. His bat is great, his glove isn't. And the Red Sox are probably going to keep him anyway.
Miguel Olivo*, COL
.269/.315/.449, 14 HR, 58 RBI
- Olivo isn't much of an upgrade for what he might get on the open market.
Others: Ramon Hernandez, CIN; A.J. Pierzynski, CWS; Jason Varitek, BOS
- Varitek could be worth a look as a backup. Hernandez and Pierzynski will get starting jobs elsewhere.
What to do: Go with Barajas and Ellis and invest the money Russell Martin would have made in another position.
First Base - This depends on whether or not the Dodgers decide to keep Loney in the fold.
Adam Dunn, WAS
.260/.356/.536, 38 HR, 103 RBI
- A poor defensive player overall, Dunn will command a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal on the open market. He could be signed to play left field, too.
Aubrey Huff, SF
.290/.385/.506, 26 HR, 86 RBI
- Huff enjoyed a great bounce-back season in 'Frisco. He isn't great with the glove, but he's acceptable. He can play a corner outfield position, if needed. The Giants probably won't let him get away.
Adam LaRoche, ARI
.261/.320/.468, 25 HR, 100 RBI
- LaRoche eclipsed his career-high in RBI (100), but he actually had one of his worst seasons since 2007, according to OPS+ (106 after 122 the previous three seasons).
Paul Konerko, CWS
.312/.393/.584, 39 HR, 111 RBI
- Konerko had a fantastic season. In fact, it was a career-best season for the one-time Dodger. He's entering his age-35 season, so a long-term deal for him is risky. I don't see the Dodgers being contenders for his services.
Others: Lyle Overbay, TOR; Carlos Pena, TB; Ty Wigginton, BAL
- Overbay isn't an upgrade over Loney, Pena cannot hit the ball and Wigginton is a platoon player.
I'm a Loney backer. However, after last season's second-half decline, I've lost a little confidence in him. I'd still rather the Dodgers improve elsewhere, as his glove is almost invaluable at first base.
What to do: Take a look at Dunn, but look to upgrade elsewhere.
Middle Infield - Almost anyone is an upgrade over Theriot, but the 2B crop is pretty awful this year. Furcal, unless traded, will be the Dodgers' opening day SS.
Mark Ellis*, OAK
.291/.358/.381, 5 HR, 49 RBI
- Ellis is a Gold Glove-caliber second baseman. However, he has a $6 million club option with Oakland, which is surprisingly affordable for the A's. It isn't guaranteed he'll have it picked up, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was.
Orlando Hudson, MIN
.268/.338/.372, 6 HR, 37 RBI
- The former Dodger will not be coming back to L.A. He had a down year in 2010 after returning to the American league.
Juan Uribe, SF
.248/.310/.440, 24 HR, 85 RBI
- I've seen other blogs mention Uribe as an acquisition. While it pains me to say it, he would be a good utility player. Like Huff, though, I'd be shocked if 'Frisco lets him go.
J.J. Hardy, MIN
.268/.320/.394, 6 HR, 38 RBI
- Hardy was an All-Star in Milwaukee and many thought a change of scenery to Minnesota would help. It did not. Hardy could be a valuable utility player, as he can play all three infield positions. This is one guy I'd really like the Dodgers to sign.
Others: Adam Kennedy, OAK; Jerry Hairston, Jr., SD; Bill Hall*, BOS; Jose Lopez*, SEA; Omar Infante*, ATL
What to do: I'd love to see Hardy in the fold as a super utility player, with most of his playing time coming at 2B. Hall, if he hits the market, could be that kind of guy, too. Theriot could return, but at a salary closer to what he earned in 2010.
Third Base - If the Dodgers spend big, it should be here... on an old friend.
Adrian Beltre*, BOS
.321/.365/.553, 28 HR, 102 RBI (AL-leading 49 2Bs)
- Beltre didn't put up 2004 numbers, but he was one of the best signings of last off-season. Not only did his bat return, but he is still one of the best defensive 3Bs in baseball. If the Dodgers want to bring in one big-time free agent, this should be the guy. He has a $10 million player option that he will almost certainly decline.
Jorge Cantu, FLA-TEX
.256/.304/.392, 11 HR, 56 RBI
- Cantu re-energized his career in Florida, but had a poor 2010. A trade to the soon-to-be-champion Texas Rangers (hopefully) didn't help his production. At this point, I'd rather just go with Blake for 135-140 games.
Brandon Inge, DET
.247/.321/.397, 13 HR, 70 RBI
- Inge isn't a prototypical 3B. He hasn't had an OPS+ of league-average since 2005 (when it was 100). His career OPS+ is 85, which isn't an improvement over Blake.
Aramis Ramirez*, CHC
.241/.294/.452, 25 HR, 83 RBI
- Ramirez had a woeful start to the 2010 season. However, when the Cubs came to L.A. before the All-Star Break, he started to heat up. He has a player option for 2011 and team option for 2012 -- he's not going anywhere.
Miguel Tejada, BAL-SD
.269/.312/.381, 15 HR, 71 RBI
- Tejada is in the twilight of his career. He's best suited for utility duty. He isn't much of a third-base option for L.A.
Others: Pedro Feliz, HOU-STL; Maicer Izturis, ANA; Melvin Mora, COL
- None of these guys would be an upgrade over Blake. Izturis is sure to be a hot commodity in the utility man market.
What to do: Beltre or bust. It's that simple.
Outfield - With Kemp (if he isn't traded) and Ethier, the Dodgers need just one more outfielder. Scott Podesednik is the odds-on favorite to be the starting left fielder, despite it being the wrong move.
Carl Crawford, TB
.307/.356/.495, 19 HR, 90 RBI
- After Cliff Lee, Crawford is the best free agent available. He will get a huge contract from another team -- potentially the Red Sox or Angels. He'd look great in Dodger Blue, but it isn't happening.
Johnny Damon, DET
.271/.355/.401, 8 HR, 51 RBI
- At this stage in his career, Damon wouldn't be much of an upgrade of Podsednik. He likes Detroit and it's likely he'll stay there.
Vladimir Guerrero*, TEX
.300/.345/.496, 29 HR, 115 RBI
- Maybe if this were 2004. Vlad seems to have found a new home in Texas.
Jayson Werth, PHI
.296/.388/.532, 27 HR, 85 RBI (NL-leading 46 2Bs)
- Another former Dodger, eh? Ironically, he might be the best fit of all. However, his time in L.A. didn't end well and it remains to be seen if he would return... and if Frank McCourt would pay what it would cost to land Werth. His home-road splits since going to Philadelphia are cause for future success, though (2010 OPS: .999 at home, .838 on the road).
Others: Pat Burrell, TB-SF; Coco Crisp*, OAK; Brad Hawpe, COL-TB; Xavier Nady, CHC; Marcus Thames, NYY
- Burrell, Nady and Thames would be right-handed platoon partners with a lefty (Podsednik?), Crisp (if he hits the open market) would shore up the outfield defense (Kemp to RF, Ethier to LF) and Hawpe wouldn't be able to do damage against the Dodgers.
What to do: Gauge Werth's interest if the Dodgers fail to land Beltre. Otherwise, just go with a lefty-righty platoon in left field -- preferably with Thames as the righty.
Next up: Free agent targets - pitchers
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
2010 Los Angeles Dodger off-season preview, part II
I remember when the "kids" were just kids.
Chad Billingsley was making his debut in Petco Park, throwing 98 pitches in 5 1/3 innings while earning a no-decision.
James Loney started Opening Day 2006 at first base for the Dodgers and came up with five triples in his first 111 plate appearances while wearing the great No. 29.
Russell Martin came up to replace the injured Dioner Navarro and had a .792 OPS in his age-23 season.
Clayton Kershaw, baby-faced and all, was the most exciting prospect to come up through the Dodgers' minor league system in at least a 15 years.
Hong-Chih Kuo had one of the most electric minor league debuts before undergoing two Tommy John surgeries before his age-26 season.
Ramon Troncoso was a garbage-time reliever.
Ryan Theriot played for the Cubs. Not much to go into here.
And George Sherrill... well, let's not go there.
Now, they are no longer the kids. They are the core of the team. They are the veterans. Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton are included, but they signed two-year deals last winter, buying them out of this year's arbitration.
Aside from Martin and Sherrill, the rest of the arbitration-eligible Dodgers will be tendered contracts. It doesn't guarantee them a spot on the 2011 roster (trades), but the Dodgers will continue to invest in these guys.
Here are the arbitration-eligible players and what they made in 2010:
Third-timers
Martin - $5.05M
Sherrill - $4.5M
Second-timers
Billingsley - $3.85M
Kuo - $0.95M
Loney - $3.1M
Theriot - $2.6M
First-timers
Kershaw - $440,000
Troncoso - $416,000
The Dodgers can go a few directions here. Let's start with Billingsley and Kershaw.
Billingsley: He will get a substantial raise after a solid season. He could make in the neighborhood of $7 million. The Dodgers could make a long-term investment in him by offering a 3-year, $27 million deal. It would buy out Billingsley's remaining arbitration years. There is risk, however, as Billingsley's conditioning isn't the best. But he seems to be back on track after a 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP second half, which included a shutout of the Giants on July 21. What to do: 3 years, $27 million with a $12 million option for 2014
Kershaw: He is going to get a Billingsley-esque raise at worst. Chad got roughly a $3.4 million raise. Kershaw is everything the Dodgers have expected him to be and more. He is the ace of this staff. He is a true ace. For that, they should reward him, much like the Red Sox, Brewers and Blue Jays rewarded their young aces -- Jon Lester, Yovani Gallard and Rickey Romero (respectively). All three got 5-year, $30- to $30.1 million extensions at this point in their careers with options for the sixth year at $13 million.
I would not be opposed to something similar to this. It would lock up a guy whose salary is guaranteed to skyrocket. It would give him long-term security and show the Dodgers are not afraid to make a commitment. What to do: 5 years, $32 million with $13 million for 2016
Troncoso: I could honestly care less if he comes back. He had a poor 2010 season. He gave up more home runs this season (seven) than he had in his entire career (five). His peripherals are poor. He had a solid 2009 season -- 2.72 ERA despite a 1.41 WHIP and 1.62 K/BB ratio. What to do: Non-tender
Loney: He is in line for a raise, despite the worst season of his career. He could make anywhere from $5- to $7 million. With Kim Ng, though, the Dodgers are likely to pay what they offer (that goes for all arbitration-eligible players). What to do: Offer arbitration
Kuo: He will get a hefty raise. He could make the $4.5 million Sherrill made this season. Provided he stays healthy, it'd be money well spent. What to do: Offer arbitration
Theriot: If it were up to me, he'd be gone. But he's one of those "gritty" and "scrappy" players Ned Colletti seems to love so much. He could make $3- to $5 million in arbitration. What to do: Non-tender
Sherrill: It's amazing this guy lasted the season with the Dodgers. He was about as bad as one could be. Still, he got lefties out (.192 BAA). He's a LOOGY (left-handed-one-out-only-guy), but he isn't worth what he would get in arbitration. What to do: Non-tender
Martin: This is by far the toughest case of all. He's going to get $7- or $8 million in arbitration despite his epic decline. With A.J. Ellis performing well toward the end of the season and Rod Barajas mashing in limited action, the Dodgers might be able to non-tender Martin. If they don't, they'll have quite a financial commitment to a guy who provides no pop anymore. Martin was once seen as a potential face of the franchise; a leader. Now, he's forgettable. What to do: Non-tender
Next up: Potential free agent targets
Chad Billingsley was making his debut in Petco Park, throwing 98 pitches in 5 1/3 innings while earning a no-decision.
James Loney started Opening Day 2006 at first base for the Dodgers and came up with five triples in his first 111 plate appearances while wearing the great No. 29.
Russell Martin came up to replace the injured Dioner Navarro and had a .792 OPS in his age-23 season.
Clayton Kershaw, baby-faced and all, was the most exciting prospect to come up through the Dodgers' minor league system in at least a 15 years.
Hong-Chih Kuo had one of the most electric minor league debuts before undergoing two Tommy John surgeries before his age-26 season.
Ramon Troncoso was a garbage-time reliever.
Ryan Theriot played for the Cubs. Not much to go into here.
And George Sherrill... well, let's not go there.
Now, they are no longer the kids. They are the core of the team. They are the veterans. Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Jonathan Broxton are included, but they signed two-year deals last winter, buying them out of this year's arbitration.
Aside from Martin and Sherrill, the rest of the arbitration-eligible Dodgers will be tendered contracts. It doesn't guarantee them a spot on the 2011 roster (trades), but the Dodgers will continue to invest in these guys.
Here are the arbitration-eligible players and what they made in 2010:
Third-timers
Martin - $5.05M
Sherrill - $4.5M
Second-timers
Billingsley - $3.85M
Kuo - $0.95M
Loney - $3.1M
Theriot - $2.6M
First-timers
Kershaw - $440,000
Troncoso - $416,000
The Dodgers can go a few directions here. Let's start with Billingsley and Kershaw.
Billingsley: He will get a substantial raise after a solid season. He could make in the neighborhood of $7 million. The Dodgers could make a long-term investment in him by offering a 3-year, $27 million deal. It would buy out Billingsley's remaining arbitration years. There is risk, however, as Billingsley's conditioning isn't the best. But he seems to be back on track after a 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP second half, which included a shutout of the Giants on July 21. What to do: 3 years, $27 million with a $12 million option for 2014
Kershaw: He is going to get a Billingsley-esque raise at worst. Chad got roughly a $3.4 million raise. Kershaw is everything the Dodgers have expected him to be and more. He is the ace of this staff. He is a true ace. For that, they should reward him, much like the Red Sox, Brewers and Blue Jays rewarded their young aces -- Jon Lester, Yovani Gallard and Rickey Romero (respectively). All three got 5-year, $30- to $30.1 million extensions at this point in their careers with options for the sixth year at $13 million.
I would not be opposed to something similar to this. It would lock up a guy whose salary is guaranteed to skyrocket. It would give him long-term security and show the Dodgers are not afraid to make a commitment. What to do: 5 years, $32 million with $13 million for 2016
Troncoso: I could honestly care less if he comes back. He had a poor 2010 season. He gave up more home runs this season (seven) than he had in his entire career (five). His peripherals are poor. He had a solid 2009 season -- 2.72 ERA despite a 1.41 WHIP and 1.62 K/BB ratio. What to do: Non-tender
Loney: He is in line for a raise, despite the worst season of his career. He could make anywhere from $5- to $7 million. With Kim Ng, though, the Dodgers are likely to pay what they offer (that goes for all arbitration-eligible players). What to do: Offer arbitration
Kuo: He will get a hefty raise. He could make the $4.5 million Sherrill made this season. Provided he stays healthy, it'd be money well spent. What to do: Offer arbitration
Theriot: If it were up to me, he'd be gone. But he's one of those "gritty" and "scrappy" players Ned Colletti seems to love so much. He could make $3- to $5 million in arbitration. What to do: Non-tender
Sherrill: It's amazing this guy lasted the season with the Dodgers. He was about as bad as one could be. Still, he got lefties out (.192 BAA). He's a LOOGY (left-handed-one-out-only-guy), but he isn't worth what he would get in arbitration. What to do: Non-tender
Martin: This is by far the toughest case of all. He's going to get $7- or $8 million in arbitration despite his epic decline. With A.J. Ellis performing well toward the end of the season and Rod Barajas mashing in limited action, the Dodgers might be able to non-tender Martin. If they don't, they'll have quite a financial commitment to a guy who provides no pop anymore. Martin was once seen as a potential face of the franchise; a leader. Now, he's forgettable. What to do: Non-tender
Next up: Potential free agent targets
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
2010 Los Angeles Dodger off-season preview, part I
Like last year, I'm going to break down the Los Angeles Dodgers' off-season into four parts: Dodger free agents, arbitration-eligible players, potential free agent targets and potential trade targets.
Something that could influence the off-season preview is the following tweet from Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times:
The Dodgers' 2010 payroll was just over $102 million. For all we know, the Dodgers could raise payroll by $1 and it would technically be an "increase." However, this should be somewhat encouraging for Dodger fans. They aren't going to go on a massive spending spree, but at least there's hope for the off-season, unlike last year.
The Dodgers jumped into the off-season rather quickly, signing left-handed starter Ted Lilly to a 3-year, $33 million contract. Hernandez said Lilly will get a $3.5 million signing bonus spread out over the three years, as well as a full no-trade clause in the first two years of the deal.
On the surface, this isn't the worst deal in the world, now that we know the money. The Dodgers now have three established starting pitchers. In this market, $11 million a season for a guy who could give you an ERA in the mid-to-upper 3s and good control. Still, the Dodgers probably overpaid a bit for Lilly's services. The deal should be decent for the first two years, but the third year could be when the Dodgers regret giving a soon-to-be 35-year-old starter a three-year commitment.
Anyway, onto the Dodger free agents. The team has eight (remaining) free agents. Compared to last year's 15, this crop should be a lot easier to deal with. Lilly was a Type A free agent.
Dodger Free Agents
C Brad Ausmus
C Rod Barajas (Type B)
OF Reed Johnson
OF/1B Jay Gibbons
OF Scott Podsednik (Type B, $2M club option which he could void)
RHP Hiroki Kuroda (Type B)
RHP Vicente Padilla
RHP Jeff Weaver
Barajas: He was quite the surprise after coming over from the Mets in an August trade. He was so surprising he might have very well earned a spot on the 2011 team. His .297/.361/.578 line in 25 games was something the Dodgers haven't had out of the position in a long time. However, he is strictly a part-time player. If the Dodgers bring him back with the intention of him playing 130 games, his production won't look nearly as good. Arbitration: Yes
Podsednik: When he came over from the Royals at the deadline, I thought it was a decent pickup. The fact that he is a Type B free agent made the deal a lot more acceptable. He didn't play much of the last month as he was injured. In spite of that, I would not be opposed to him coming back as a fourth outfielder. My fear is the Dodgers will give him 600 PAs as the regular left fielder, which would be a mistake. If he voids his option or the Dodgers buy him out, they can always offer him arbitration. A team are less likely to hesitate to sign him because he is a Type B free agent. If he comes back, he's a solid fourth outfielder -- if the Dodgers use him in that manner. Arbitration: Yes, without a doubt
Kuroda: I absolutely love Kuroda. He is a gamer. He is a battler. But unless he comes back at a reduced rate from his $13 million salary -- and he has no reason to do so -- then good for him and the Dodgers. Speculation is he could return to Japan to finish his career. With a potential $15 or $16 million arbitration case, that is a risk the Dodgers are not likely to take. Arbitration: No
Padilla: For a stretch last season, he was the Dodgers' best pitcher. A few poor outings toward the end of the season inflated his numbers. Padilla made $5.025 million last season (with $1 million deferred). If the Dodgers could bring him back at a similar rate, I'd be all for it. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, he just missed being a Type B free agent. But it could be beneficial in bringing him back. Arbitration: No
Ausmus is retiring. The Dodgers need to bring back Gibbons. He proved to be a valuable asset of the bench. He should be relatively easy to re-sign. I really don't see the need for Johnson. His .262/.291/.366 line and 5:50 BB:K ratio can easily be replaced. Weaver had a terrible season and appears to have nothing left in the tank, despite wanting to pitch one more season.
Next up: Arbitration-eligible players
Something that could influence the off-season preview is the following tweet from Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times:
"Dodgers' payroll will increase in 2011, GM Ned Colletti said."
The Dodgers' 2010 payroll was just over $102 million. For all we know, the Dodgers could raise payroll by $1 and it would technically be an "increase." However, this should be somewhat encouraging for Dodger fans. They aren't going to go on a massive spending spree, but at least there's hope for the off-season, unlike last year.
The Dodgers jumped into the off-season rather quickly, signing left-handed starter Ted Lilly to a 3-year, $33 million contract. Hernandez said Lilly will get a $3.5 million signing bonus spread out over the three years, as well as a full no-trade clause in the first two years of the deal.
On the surface, this isn't the worst deal in the world, now that we know the money. The Dodgers now have three established starting pitchers. In this market, $11 million a season for a guy who could give you an ERA in the mid-to-upper 3s and good control. Still, the Dodgers probably overpaid a bit for Lilly's services. The deal should be decent for the first two years, but the third year could be when the Dodgers regret giving a soon-to-be 35-year-old starter a three-year commitment.
Anyway, onto the Dodger free agents. The team has eight (remaining) free agents. Compared to last year's 15, this crop should be a lot easier to deal with. Lilly was a Type A free agent.
Dodger Free Agents
C Brad Ausmus
C Rod Barajas (Type B)
OF Reed Johnson
OF/1B Jay Gibbons
OF Scott Podsednik (Type B, $2M club option which he could void)
RHP Hiroki Kuroda (Type B)
RHP Vicente Padilla
RHP Jeff Weaver
Barajas: He was quite the surprise after coming over from the Mets in an August trade. He was so surprising he might have very well earned a spot on the 2011 team. His .297/.361/.578 line in 25 games was something the Dodgers haven't had out of the position in a long time. However, he is strictly a part-time player. If the Dodgers bring him back with the intention of him playing 130 games, his production won't look nearly as good. Arbitration: Yes
Podsednik: When he came over from the Royals at the deadline, I thought it was a decent pickup. The fact that he is a Type B free agent made the deal a lot more acceptable. He didn't play much of the last month as he was injured. In spite of that, I would not be opposed to him coming back as a fourth outfielder. My fear is the Dodgers will give him 600 PAs as the regular left fielder, which would be a mistake. If he voids his option or the Dodgers buy him out, they can always offer him arbitration. A team are less likely to hesitate to sign him because he is a Type B free agent. If he comes back, he's a solid fourth outfielder -- if the Dodgers use him in that manner. Arbitration: Yes, without a doubt
Kuroda: I absolutely love Kuroda. He is a gamer. He is a battler. But unless he comes back at a reduced rate from his $13 million salary -- and he has no reason to do so -- then good for him and the Dodgers. Speculation is he could return to Japan to finish his career. With a potential $15 or $16 million arbitration case, that is a risk the Dodgers are not likely to take. Arbitration: No
Padilla: For a stretch last season, he was the Dodgers' best pitcher. A few poor outings toward the end of the season inflated his numbers. Padilla made $5.025 million last season (with $1 million deferred). If the Dodgers could bring him back at a similar rate, I'd be all for it. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, he just missed being a Type B free agent. But it could be beneficial in bringing him back. Arbitration: No
Ausmus is retiring. The Dodgers need to bring back Gibbons. He proved to be a valuable asset of the bench. He should be relatively easy to re-sign. I really don't see the need for Johnson. His .262/.291/.366 line and 5:50 BB:K ratio can easily be replaced. Weaver had a terrible season and appears to have nothing left in the tank, despite wanting to pitch one more season.
Next up: Arbitration-eligible players
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Dodgers close to inking Lilly to 3-year deal
The ever reliable Ken Rosenthal... (I'll wait while you stop laughing)... tweeted that the Dodgers are close to re-signing Ted Lilly to a 3-year contract. The Los Angeles Times' Dylan Hernandez confirmed the deal (physical pending).
Well, this kind of throws a monkey into my off-season preview, which was set to kickoff next week.
Lilly was really good for the Dodgers after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline. The only thing he struggled with was giving up home runs. He gave up 13 in 76 2/3 innings, good for fourth-most on the Dodgers and his 1.53 HR/9 rate tied Carlos Monasterios for highest on the club.
But this move is awfully reminiscent of the Casey Blake re-signing two years ago. The Dodgers rushed to re-sign Blake and they're now paying the price. Lilly is in a different position, but I can't help but make that comparison.
When it comes down to it, I think I might rather have Hiroki Kuroda back over Lilly for roughly the same price -- speculation is $10 to $12 million annually.
Then again, I'm partial to Kuroda. He had the best season of his career in 2010 and will be 36 in February. Lilly will be 35 headed into the 2011 season and has less injury concerns than Kuroda.
I wasn't crazy about the Lilly acquisition at first, but the saving grace was the chance at collecting draft picks. Now, that doesn't seem likely.
Unless Frank McCourt strikes oil in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers probably won't offer Kuroda arbitration.
Offering Lilly arbitration would have been a no-brainer to me. He's probably a little more attractive on the open market than Kuroda, meaning the Dodgers could have gotten two first-round picks (or one first and one second).
The first domino of the Dodger off-season is close to falling. But one has to wonder: How many more dominoes do the Dodgers have left?
Well, this kind of throws a monkey into my off-season preview, which was set to kickoff next week.
Lilly was really good for the Dodgers after coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline. The only thing he struggled with was giving up home runs. He gave up 13 in 76 2/3 innings, good for fourth-most on the Dodgers and his 1.53 HR/9 rate tied Carlos Monasterios for highest on the club.
But this move is awfully reminiscent of the Casey Blake re-signing two years ago. The Dodgers rushed to re-sign Blake and they're now paying the price. Lilly is in a different position, but I can't help but make that comparison.
When it comes down to it, I think I might rather have Hiroki Kuroda back over Lilly for roughly the same price -- speculation is $10 to $12 million annually.
Then again, I'm partial to Kuroda. He had the best season of his career in 2010 and will be 36 in February. Lilly will be 35 headed into the 2011 season and has less injury concerns than Kuroda.
I wasn't crazy about the Lilly acquisition at first, but the saving grace was the chance at collecting draft picks. Now, that doesn't seem likely.
Unless Frank McCourt strikes oil in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers probably won't offer Kuroda arbitration.
Offering Lilly arbitration would have been a no-brainer to me. He's probably a little more attractive on the open market than Kuroda, meaning the Dodgers could have gotten two first-round picks (or one first and one second).
The first domino of the Dodger off-season is close to falling. But one has to wonder: How many more dominoes do the Dodgers have left?
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