Monday, July 23, 2012

Dodgers should pursue Hanley Ramirez instead of Chase Headley

While the hottest Dodger rumor of the day is a Matt Garza trade involving Zach Lee and others, there is a potential trade not many are talking about.

The Dodgers have needed to add quality bats to the team for years. That's no secret and this year is no exception. But in this wafer-thin market, there aren't a lot of options.

The Padres appear to be asking a lot for Chase Headley, who is the best third baseman reportedly on the market.to get him, the Dodgers would likely have to deal Lee and at least another B-/C+ prospect to get him. While he's under control through 2014 and should perform much better outside the unfriendly confines of Petco Park, I'm still not sure I'd be rushing to give up Lee to get him.

At this rate, I might not even give up Allen Webster to get Headley. Webster's resurgence has been fantastic to see.

But should the Dodgers be looking elsewhere for offensive help?

The Marlins have reportedly been gauging trade interest in their shortsop-turned-third baseman Hanley Ramirez.

From Scott Miller of CBS Sports:
"Rival executives who have spoken with Marlins people believe they've never been more open to the idea. Halfway through a bitterly disappointing season, the Marlins aren't so much trying to blow things up (as they have in the past) as they are simply trying to change the ingredients.

It's not that they think they're that far from winning so much as the Marlins simply do not like their team. They've decided that the mix is bad, the pieces don't fit, the personalities have not coalesced.

In other words, they've come to terms with the obvious."
With the Marlins' big trade today, moving Ramirez indeed seems more likely than ever.

Ramirez, a former batting champion, 30-30 man and MVP runner-up, has not been the same player he was as recently as 2010.

Ramirez is hitting just .245/.328/.405 in the last two seasons. His 2011 was shortened by injury and his 2012 is marginally better.

Despite the lack of production, the price to get him -- prospects- and money-wise -- will be greater than that of Headley. Still, if Ramirez is available, the Dodgers need to get in on the sweepstakes.

Let's face it: they're not going to get Justin Upton (as much as I'd love that). If it comes down to Ramirez and Headley, I'm taking Ramirez (if not both, which would gut the system).

Pros/Cons

Hanley Ramirez
Pros: Age, power, past performance, speed, SS or 3B
Cons: Attitude, declining production, owed roughly $39 million through 2014, poor defense

Chase Headley
Pros: Age, defense, friendly contract, no attitude, on-base ability
Cons: Lack of power, limited ceiling, no superstar potential

The Marlins signed Jose Reyes to a big contract in the offseason and moving Ramirez to third base hasn't exactly worked out offensively or defensively.

What would it take to get him?

Editor's note: After some feedback, it's been determined I'm giving up too much in this deal. So, I've amended it by removing Joc Pederson.

To Florida: Lee, Scott Van Slyke, Chris Reed, Shawn Tolleson
To Los Angeles: Ramirez, Ricky Nolasco

I'm not saying it's a good possibility the Dodgers get Ramirez, but considering the Padres want a lot for an affordable Headley and the Dodgers would have to pay a premium with an interdivision trade, Ramirez might make more sense.

The Marlins get salary relief (to use on free agents in the winter), a Top 50 prospect in Lee and a budding Top 100 prospect in Pederson. Reed has lots of talent but is still an unknown. Van Slyke is a guy who can player right now for the Marlins and Tolleson is a quality bullpen arm who can go right into their bullpen. The Fish always seem to acquire MLB-ready relievers in trades.

The Dodgers get a legitimate stick in Ramirez and a starting pitcher in Nolasco who is owed about $16 million through next year. Ramirez is due about $39 million through 2014.

The best asset the Dodgers' favor right now is the ability to take on money (and not just in lieu of including quality prospects). Ownership has not been quiet about that fact. This could be a golden opportunity to put that benefit into effect.

Ramirez is a risky acquisition, but it's a risk well worth taking. He has superstar potential, even if he hasn't shown it for the last few seasons. The Dodgers cannot go forward with Luis Cruz at shortstop. Until Dee Gordon returns, I'd play Ramirez at shortstop and bat him leadoff. He's enjoyed a lot of success out of the leadoff spot in his career.

Ramirez, like another Ramirez the Dodgers acquired a few years ago, needs a change of scenery. This move would also allow the team go acquire a guy like Justin Morneau (another risky proposition) which would immediately improve the lineup.

Photo credits: SD Dirk, Flickr

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Dodgers switch focus from Ryan Dempster to Matt Garza

Despite reports, the Dodgers are probably still monitoring the Ryan Dempster situation. However, they've now apparently shifted their focus to Matt Garza.

I looked at Dempster v. Garza last month and said either would be a solid acquisition. Dempster would be cheaper (or so we thought) and Garza would cost more. That hasn't changed.

But Garza isn't much better than one Chad Billingsley. Their numbers are eerily similar. In fact, Billingsley's career numbers are better than that of Garza's.

So, the question becomes: What would you give up for Chad Billingsley? Because that's basically the pitcher a team would acquire.

For Garza, I'd make guys like Zach Lee, Allen Webster and Joc Pederson off limits. I'd rather the Dodgers keep those guys or use them to get a bat.

The trade deadline is less than 10 days away. If the Dodgers are still insistent on buying (which they are), it's going to be an extremely interesting 10 days.

The rumor mill is already running rampant. The Dodgers have been linked (in some way) to the following players in addition to Dempster and Garza: Michael Cuddyer, Chase Headley, Cliff Lee, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and some I'm sure I missed.

The team remains intent on acquiring a bat, a starting pitcher and a left-handed reliever. Ned Colletti, Stan Kasten and Co. will be awfully busy in the coming days. Let's just hope no foolish deals are made.

Photo credit: dbking, Flickr

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Podcast: 'Dugout Blues' episode 10 -- Dodgers, Puig, Seager, prospects

After a brief hiatus, "Dugout Blues" is back on the air. In this episode, Jared Massey and I talk about a lot of the goings-on we missed, including the Dodgers' terrible offense, the return of Matt Kemp, Chase Headley trade rumors, Yasiel Puig signing, Corey Seager, a draft wrap-up and my most recent prospect rankings.

Libsyn link
Direct link
iTunes link

We'll likely record another episode on Sunday. Could we be talking about a Ryan Dempster acquisition? I wouldn't be surprised.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Not understanding the Dodgers' reported interest in Jimmy Rollins

The Dodgers are reportedly interested in Jimmy Rollins, but I'm not exactly sure why.

Sure, he'd be an upgrade over guys like Luis Cruz and Elian Herrera, but Rollins isn't exactly a great player anymore and will likely regress in after this season.

Rollins signed a 3-year, $33 million contract this offseason and is owed roughly $5 to 6 million for the rest of this season. He also has a vesting option for 2015. From Cots:

"2015 option guaranteed at $11M with 1) 600 plate appearances in 2014 or 2) 1,100 PAs in 2013-14 and Rollins is not on disabled list at end of 2014 season (or if he is on the DL, a mutually agreed upon doctor deems him available for 2015 Opening Day roster)

If option does not vest, Phillies hold $8M club option for 2015 and Rollins holds $5M player option"

Not exactly attractive. While the price to acquire him would be minimal (especially if the Dodgers pay all his salary), it also means there'd be the question of what to do when Dee Gordon returns from injury.

The Dodgers need help at almost every position -- shortstop included. However, acquiring a high-priced veteran and stunt the development of a young shortstop isn't the way to go.

Rollins is on the wrong side of 30, has declining defensive skills and a poor on-base percentage (.317 this season, .329 for his career). The investment is not a smart one. The Dodgers need to allocate their resources elsewhere in hopes of an upgrade.

Every day Chase Headley is not a Dodger is a day his price goes up. Of course, the Padres need to be willing to trade him (no reason they shouldn't be), but they're waiting for as long as they can to get the best deal.

Photo credit: SD Dirk, Flickr