Dodgers invite top prospects to 7th annual Winter Development Program

As they've done for seven straight years, the Dodgers are holding their Winter Development Program at Dodger Stadium, beginning Sunday.

The main goals of the program are to help Dodger minor-leaguers not only prepare for the majors, but also to prepare themselves for the off-the-field aspect of being a Major League Baseball player.

From the Dodgers' official press release:

"Fifteen of the club’s top minor league prospects will be in Los Angeles for the event, which includes seminars with Dodger staffers and workouts that focus on fundamentals, strength training and conditioning. Throughout the week, Dodger prospects will familiarize themselves with the greater Los Angeles area through social events and a community service visit to A Place Called Home, a youth center in South Los Angeles. The program is highlighted by sessions with Don Mattingly, Tommy Lasorda, Don Newcombe, Maury Wills, Eric Karros, Shawn Green, Stan Kasten and Ned Colletti and the annual Legends Dinner with Dodger alumni."

The attendees are as follows:

Pedro Baez
Chili Buss
Jose Dominguez
Yimi Garcia
Zach Lee
Matt Magill
Jarret Martin
Pratt Maynard
Chris O'Brien
Joc Pederson
Chris Reed
Miguel Rojas
Seth Rosin
Scott Schebler
Ross Stripling

Lee, Magill, Pederson and Reed all attended the 2013 Winter Development Program.

Baez, Garcia and Martin were added to the 40-man roster in November, so they were locks to be there. Lee and Schebeler were the Dodgers (and my) minor-league pitcher and player of the year, respectively.

Rosin was acquired from the Mets after they selected him from the Phillies in December's Rule 5 Draft. Stripling is the best prospect of the first-timers.

Magill threw a handful of games with the Dodgers, while Dominguez pitched briefly with them last season before suffering a quad injury. Buss had the smallest cup of coffee of any of the minor-leaguers invited to the program.

O'Brien

The two catchers -- Maynard and O'Brien -- both played in the Arizona Fall League (as did Garcia and Martin).

The most interesting -- and I use that term loosely -- is the inclusion of Rojas. General Manager Ned Colletti mentioned Rojas by name in a radio interview a couple weeks ago as someone who could be in the second base mix if Alexander Guerrero isn't ready to go. I blew off the thought, as did others. But the invitation to the program leads me to believe there's at least been some talk about him either being a utility infielder or the team's second baseman come March in Australia.

The Dodgers are really doing this just to spite me. I still maintain there's no way Rojas is on the Dodgers' roster come opening day. His glove may be really good (though, it probably isn't even a 65 or 70), but one has to at least hit a little to be a major leaguer. Rojas has displayed minimal ability to hit at the minor-league level. If I can say something nice about his offense, it's the fact he's walks a little (7.6 percent) and doesn't strikeout a whole lot (11.4 percent).

Photo credits: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

Guerra, Rosin, Buss on short list to be axed if Dodgers need 40-man spot

After adding three prospects in November, signing Dan Haren, Chris Perez and Jamey Wright and re-signing the likes of J.P. Howell, Juan Uribe and Brian Wilson, the Dodgers' 40-man roster is full-up.

Yet, there's still work to be done to the Major League roster.  The Dodgers' bench isn't fully settled yet and there's the looming potential signing of Masahiro Tanaka. That means there are going to be some players on the proverbial chopping block.

After the Dodgers place Chad Billingsley and Scott Elbert on the 60-day disabled list, there will be two vacant spots. But if the Dodgers need to add more players (and they might), there would need to be additional moves. Just because it's the new year doesn't mean teams stop making moves. The 2014 Dodgers aren't yet a finished product, and probably won't be until March.

The Dodgers' bench is the weakest part of the club right now. Andre Ethier is the most established guy, but he might be better than Carl Crawford. Either of them could also be moved before opening day, or one of them could replace an injured, say, Matt Kemp, on opening day. Scott Van Slyke is about the only other legitimate threat off the bench. Tim Federowicz's spot is secure, as it would seem is Dee Gordon's. That's four spots, with another spot needed for (preferably) a shortstop. That could be Brendan Harris, it could be a player yet to be signed. That remains to be seen.

Here are the candidates who could be designated for assignment, traded or released to make room for others:

Mike Baxter

Chili Buss

Drew Butera

Javy Guerra

Seth Rosin

Justin Sellers

The Dodgers could cut any of those guys today and not think twice about it. But there is potential for some of those guys to be contributors at the Major League level.

Buss

Baxter and Buss are essentially the same player. Both have the ability to play center field and provide a little speed. It seems redundant, especially with a guy like Joc Pederson nearing his Major League debut. Either of them could go.

DFA chances: 25 percent

Butera can't hit a lick, but he's solid defensively. The fact he plays catcher helps his cause. The Dodgers could designate him for assignment, and I'd be surprised if anyone took a flyer on the 30-year-old.

DFA chances: 10 percent

Guerra, once the Dodgers' closer, is an afterthought after the emergence of Kenley Jansen and the signing of about 47 relief pitchers this offseason. If a guy like Harris needs a roster spot, I'm betting Guerra is the guy most likely cut. Plus, he's out of options, so if he doesn't make the 25-man roster, he'd go through waivers, where he'd surely be claimed.

DFA chances: 90 percent

Rosin would first have to be placed on waivers, giving other teams the chance to take a Rule 5-type flyer on him. If he were to clear waivers, he'd then have to be offered back to the Phillies for $25,000. With a live-enough arm, I'm betting the Phillies would take a worthwhile gamble on him. If, for some reason, they don't, he'd be nice to stash in Triple-A as a reliever.

Waive chances: 70 percent

As for Sellers, I'm thinking the only reason he's on the 40-man is his ability to play a competent shortstop (better than anyone in the organization, probably). He can't hit and was arrested last offseason, but his defense is solid. The Dodgers could just go with Sellers over Harris, but Harris offers that "veteran goodness."

DFA chances: 20 percent

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None of these guys are long-term Dodgers (would give Rosin the best chance of that). But each could help a team (maybe not the Dodgers) in some capacity.

The interesting part isn't who the Dodgers remove from the 40-man, it's who they're replacing said player with. I'm hoping Tanaka, but I'm not as sure of that as I was a month or so ago.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

A look at the Dodgers' ZiPS projections for 2014, most of which are positive

Dan Szymborski does great work, whether it's projecting performance or pointing out why some folks are so wrong for giving Jack Morris a vote on their Hall of Fame ballot.

Today, we're looking at his ZiPS projections for the Dodgers. Some make sense, some don't. They definitely aren't the be-all, end-all, but they also give a nice number to shoot for -- or at least to expect. I'm not going through every player, but I will look at some of the most important players to the Dodgers in 2014.

Hitters

Andre Ethier
.261/.340/.405, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 29 2B, 9.8 BB%, 19.5 K%
- I'm not diggin' this projection for Ethier. I'm sure it takes into account lack of playing time, but a .261/.340 batting average/on-base percentage slash doesn't jive with me. Ethier owns a .288/.362 "double" slash and has never hit less than .272 in a season (twice) and never gotten on base at a clip worse than .350. I could see the 13 home runs, but I'd expect him to hit better.


Adrian Gonzalez
.282/.339/.453, 22 HR, 99 RBI, 33 2B, 8.0 BB%, 17.0 K%
- This is probably the line one could expect from Gonzalez for the rest of his career. He isn't the 30-40 HR threat he was early in his career. He is still a run producer capable of hitting for enough power to make Dodger fans forget about James Loney. Being left-handed (and being able to hit left-handed pitching) helps his cause. Gonzalez should be the team's cleanup hitter for most of the season.

Matt Kemp
.274/.339/.473, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 15 SB, 8.6 BB%, 24.8 K%
- This line is reminiscent of Kemp, circa 2010. We can safely assume Kemp, c. 2011, won't be returning anytime soon. But I think Kemp could out perform this projection. He might not hit many more than 20 home runs (maybe 25), but I think he could hit for a little more batting average, thus increasing his on-base percentage, too. Again, after the last nearly two seasons (save a scorching April 2012), it's hard to argue with the projection.


Yasiel Puig
.284/.354/.485, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 96 R, 16 SB, 8.5 BB%, 19.7 K%
- What Puig did in his debut shouldn't be expected -- from a batting average perspective. He hit .319 in his debut, but Puig doesn't carry a "7" hit tool. I'd be perfectly fine with this line from Puig (especially if he hits leadoff). I'd expect the batting average to be in the .280-.300 range, but I'd also expect a little more power from the Dodgers' right fielder.

Hanley Ramirez
.276/.342/.486, 21 HR, 74 RBI, 19 SB, 8.6 BB%, 17.3 K%
- If Ramirez's numbers look a little low, they are. But it also takes into account Ramirez's performance from the last few years. If healthy (that's a big "if"), I'd expect Ramirez's numbers to be better than his projections. He figures to hit No. 3 or No. 4 for the Dodgers. If he can give them 130-140 games, I could see Ramirez reaching the 30-HR mark for just the second time in his career.

Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw
227 1/3 IP, 2.26 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 2.1 BB/9, 9.2 K/9
- This might be one of the best ZiPS projections for a starting pitcher ever. Kershaw won his second Cy Young in three years (could have easily been 3-for-3), and this projection lends itself to a third Cy. He is the unquestioned best pitcher in baseball, and he's entering his age-26 season.

Zack Greinke
192 IP, 2.95 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 2.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9
- Greinke is coming off a stellar 2013 campaign, and if he reaches this projection, he'll have a fantastic 2014. Yes, it'd be nice to see more innings pitched (and he will, barring injury), but there probably isn't a better No. 2 starter in the game (maybe Max Scherzer... maybe). And if there's a pitcher who better pitches to his FIP, I haven 't seen him.

Hyun-Jin Ryu
3.65 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 2.5 BB/9, 7.8 K/9
- Ryu impressed in his rookie season, and it may not be realistic to expect a repeat (or better) of his 2013 numbers. But I don't see a nearly 5-point jump in his home run rate (from 0.7 to 1.2, rounded) happening, which accounts for a higher ERA and FIP.

Dan Haren
162 2/3 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.7 BB/9, 7.7 K/9
- Stop right there. If Haren were to produce these numbers, I'd be more than thrilled. Yes, some more innings would be nice, but beggars can't be choosers. Haren is fully capable of posting these numbers, especially pitching in the pitcher-friendly NL West.

Kenley Jansen
70 2/3 IP, 1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 2.7 BB/9, 13.8 K/9
- Jansen is far and away the Dodgers' best reliever and one of the games best. He's gotten better every year, and this projection states he's only going to get better. Thankfully, he won't have to beat out an inferior pitcher to be the team's closer.

Brian Wilson
38 1/3 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 3.4 BB/9, 9.2 K/9
- I feel really comfortable with Wilson backing up Jansen in the 'pen. The Dodgers re-signed Wilson to throw more than 38 1/3 innings, and he will if he stays healthy. The more he pitches, the more the Dodgers will be winning. He won't post a sub-1 ERA like he did in limited time in 2013, but I bet he checks in at less than 3.

Photo credit: Dustin Nosler, Feelin' Kinda Blue

My 2014 Hall of Fame ballot -- Bonds, Clemens, Kent, Maddux, Thomas

This is my second year voting for the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, and the Hall of Fame vote is starting to get murky.

There are legitimately 17-19 players worthy of induction. While the IBWAA elected Mike Piazza last year (the Baseball Writers' Association of America didn't), the BBWAA didn't. The BBWAA elected Barry Larkin last year, while it didn't elect Piazza, hence the inclusion of Larkin on my ballot this year.

I left off guys like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens last year as "punishment" for their performance-enhancing drug use. While PEDs don't impact everyone the same way or make them superhuman, there is a reason why they're banned by MLB and, in some cases, illegal. There is an obvious advantage from using them, otherwise it wouldn't be an issue.

My ballot

Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Jeff Kent
Barry Larkin
Greg Maddux
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Frank Thomas

It's only going to get more clutter in the coming years if the BBWAA/IBWAA doesn't increase the voting limit (from 10 to say, 15?) or if there are an unexpected number of inductions this year.

The guys who fell off my ballot this year are Edgar Martinez and Alan Trammell. This isn't because they're unworthy of the hall, but because there are others who are more worthy at this time.

Last year's BBWAA vote (by percentage) in parenthesis.

Jeff Bagwell (59.6)

- Here's what I wrote about Bagwell on my ballot two years ago:

"Bagwell was one of the most fearsome hitters of the 1990s, posting an average season of .304/.416/.545, 29 HR, 107 RBI, 35 2B, 102 R, 98 BB. That includes his first two seasons, including a Rookie of the Year award in 1991 and two strike-shortened seasons. His career took off in 1994 when he slugged 39 home runs, drove in 116 runners and posted an obscene 1.201 OPS. Those numbers were good enough to earn him the NL MVP that season. From 1994 to 2003, he averaged the following: .301/.420/.574, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 36 2B, 116 R and 107 BB. So it seems his 1994 season (minus the .368 batting average and .750 slugging percentage) would set the tone for the rest of his career. The only reason he wasn't a surefire first-ballot guy was phantom steroid/performance-enhancing drug allegations. I left him off last year because I didn't envision him as a first-ballot guy in general (side note: he was one of my favorite non-Dodgers in the '90s). Upon further review, it appears I was mistaken. The guy put up some amazing numbers and should be rewarded as such.

Nothing Bagwell did in the last 24 months has changed my mind.

Most impressive season: 1994, Houston: .368/.451/.750, 39 HR, 116 RBI, 32 2B, 104 runs scored, 213 OPS+, 8.9 rWAR, 7.8 fWAR
Extrapolated for 162-game schedule (155 games played): .368/.451/.750, 55 HR, 163 RBI, 45 2B, 146 runs scored
Craig Biggio (68.2)
- Biggio is one of the most underrated players of the last 25 years. He began as a catcher before Houston moved him to second base to preserve his knees. He played second base from 1992-2002, before Houston moved him to the outfield to make room for Jeff Kent (whom you'll ready about later). No matter where he played, he was a solid offensive contributor, but his best years came at second base. Relative to the position, he was well above-average offensively and won some hardware on the defensive side of the ball. Biggio is one of the best second baseman to ever play and deserves induction into the hall.
Most impressive season: 1997, Houston: .309/.415/.501, 22 HR, 81 RBI, 37 2B, 146 runs scored, 143 OPS+, 9.4 rWAR, 9.3 fWAR
Barry Bonds (36.2)
- This one hurts, only because Bonds was a gigantic thorn in the Dodgers' side from 1993 through 2007. But there's no denying his greatness. Even before 1998, when he reportedly began taking performance-enhancing drugs, Bonds was on the fast track for the Hall of Fame. In fact, his numbers through 1997 would have been enough to garner him strong consideration (.288/.408/.551, 374 HR, 417 SB, 1.3 BB/K ratio). His career after 1997 looks video game-esque, as he hit .314/.496/.697 with 388 HR, 209 OPS+ and a ridiculous 2.3 BB/K ratio.
Bonds was a seven-time MVP -- the most ever. He had 762 home runs -- the most ever. He walked 2,558 times -- the most ever. He had eight Gold Glove awards and is quite possibly the best player in the game's history. Whether the PEDs had a legitimate impact on his numbers, we'll never know. But like I said earlier, he was Hall-worthy before he used.
Most impressive season: 2004, San Francisco: .362/.609/.812, 45 HR, 101 RBI, 232 BB, 129 runs scored, 263 OPS+, 10.6 rWAR, 11.7 fWAR
Roger Clemens (37.6)
- Another case of a guy who was a lock for the Hall of Fame, even before using performance-enhancers. Clemens was a seven-time Cy Young award winner, an MVP award-winner and an 11-time All-Star. He topped 250 innings pitched six times in his career and 200 IP 15 times in 24 seasons. Clemens may very well be one of the best pitchers to ever throw, but his legacy will always be tainted by PEDs.
He won three of his Cy Youngs in Boston before former Red Sox's GM Dan Duquette thought Clemens' best days were behind him. Clemens went to Toronto in 1997 and put up an historic season that netted him his fourth Cy Young. He'd win three more after that (one in Toronto, one in New York, one in Houston). No matter what you think about him or his on- and off-the-field antics, he's one of the greatest pitchers of this or any generation.
Most impressive season: 1997, Toronto: .21-7, 2.05 ERA, 264 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 222 ERA+, 11.9 rWAR, 10.8 fWAR
Jeff Kent (first year eligible)
- Kent was the last inclusion on my list (he bumped Trammell from my list). While he wasn't the friendliest guy, he was a really good second baseman. He was well above-average offensively and maybe not as horrible as once expected defensively. Kent's 351 home runs are the most by a second baseman ever. He owns a .292/.357/.509 triple slash at the position in his career and remained a productive player until his age-39 season. He made his name with the Giants in the late-1990s and early-2000s, before signing with the Astros. He finished his career with four seasons in Los Angeles with the Dodgers. Kent won an MVP award in 2000 and was a five-time All-Star.
Most impressive season: 2000, San Francisco: .334/.424/.596, 33 HR, 125 RBI, 41 2B, 114 runs scored, 162 OPS+, 7.2 rWAR, 7.4 fWAR
 

Barry Larkin (elected by BBWAA in 2012)

- Here's what I wrote about Larkin two years ago. I'm honestly not sure why he wasn't elected by the IBWAA last year.

"Much like Roberto Alomar, when you thought of shortstops in the '90s, Larkin was one of the first guys you thought of. Not only was he a solid defender, he was pretty good with the bat -- so much so that he took home the 1995 NL MVP. He was a consistent hitter, putting up a career line of .295/.371/.444 and was the face of the Cincinnati Reds franchise for the better part of 13 years."

Most impressive season: 1996, Cincinnati: .298/.410/.567, 33 HR, 89 RBI, 36-for-46 in SB, 117 runs scored, 154 OPS+, 7.4 rWAR, 6.8 fWAR

Greg Maddux (first year eligible)

- If there was ever a case for a unanimous hall-of-famer, it's Maddux. Unfortunately, the BBWAA won't ever elect someone unanimously because there are some writers who refuse to vote for a guy on the first ballot. Whatever. Maddux had some of the best success of any pitcher -- especially in the so-called "Steroid Era" -- despite not having elite fastball velocity.

Rarely did Maddux's fastball break 90 MPH, yet he was able to get incredible movement on the pitch and was able to place any pitch he wanted, anywhere he wanted, in any count. He was a master of control and was perhaps the smartest pitcher who ever pitched. Maddux was won four consecutive Cy Youngs (1992-95) and finished in the Top 5 five other times. He was an eight-time All-Star and an 18-time (!) Gold Glove winner. Oh, and he had some amazing numbers. He threw more than 5,000 innings in his career, which is amazing in and of itself. After 1992, his age-26 season, Maddux walked two hitters per nine innings just once -- 2002. He made the hitters hit his pitches, and they didn't do that very well. We might not see a pitcher like Maddux for quite some time.

Most impressive season: 1995, Atlanta (strike-shortened): 19-2, 1.63 ERA, 209 2/3 IP, 0.81 WHIP, 6.3 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 1.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 260 ERA+, 9.7 rWAR, 7.9 fWAR

Mark McGwire (16.9)

This is what I wrote about McGwire last year, his seventh year eligible on the ballot:

"I've never written about McGwire before. It's hard to come up with a set of rules to go by when it comes to those who used PEDs (reference the beginning of this piece). McGwire had a fantastic career. He wasn't a guy who was going to shorten his swing to go the other way or hit behind a runner to move him up, he was the quintessential power-hitter. He didn't hit for a high average, but he hit a ton of balls over the fence. That's what he was paid to do. He hit 42 or more home runs six times in his career. While he'll always be remembered for his 70 homers in 1998, his 49 home runs in his rookie season of 1987 was pretty impressive.

McGwire put up some ridiculous numbers, including a .394 on-base percentage. His career slugging percentage (.588) is good for eighth-best in Major League history. Despite the PED use, he had a Hall of Fame career. He'll be held out for a long time by the BBWAA and I'd actually be a little surprised if he were voted in by the writers during his time on the ballot."

The Dodgers' hitting coach, despite the PED stuff, is one of the greatest sluggers of all-time and should be enshrined. However, he won't be.

Most impressive season: 1998, St. Louis: .299/.470/.752, 70 HR, 147 RBI, 162 BB, 130 runs scored, 216 OPS+, 7.2 bWAR, 8.8 fWAR

Tim Raines (52.2)

- Here's what I've written about Raines the last three years.

"Aside from Rickey Henderson, Raines is the best leadoff hitter of the last 50 years. Batting first, he had a slash line of .294/.385/.427. Surprisingly, he spent a lot of time batting second and third in his career (2841 plate appearances), but he will always been known as a leadoff guy. He had a four-year stretch from 1981-84 in which he led the National League in stolen bases -- 71, 78, 90, 75 respectively. In 1981, a strike-shortened season, he stole those 71 bases in 88 games."

There's a big push from the Internet community to get Raines in the Hall. Here's hoping it happens. He deserves it.

Most impressive season: 1987, Montreal: .330/.429/.526, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50-for-55 in SB, 123 runs scored, 149 OPS+, 6.8 bWAR, 6.9 fWAR

Frank Thomas (first year eligible)

- The Big Hurt. My formative years were spent watching Thomas pummel opposing pitchers. He is easily one of the best hitters I ever watched. He may have been the most feared hitter after Bonds. For a 10-year stretch, Thomas was one of the game's best hitters. From 1991 through 2000, he hit .320/.439/.581 and averaged 34 home runs per season. His strike-shortened 1994 season was on pace to be one of the best ever. He won two MVP awards in that time (1993 and 1994) and finished in the Top 8 five other times. He also enjoyed success from 2002-07, as he hit .265/.381/.523 and averaged 28 home runs in his age-34 to 39 seasons. Not hall-level production, but really, really good production, especially considering his age.

Some take issue with the fact Thomas was a designated hitter more than he was a first baseman. While he spent more time as a DH (1,310 games at DH, 969 at first base), he enjoyed far more success as a first baseman (.337/.453/.625 compared to .275/.394/.505). No matter how you look at it, Thomas produced offensively like a hall-of-famer.

Most impressive season: 1994, Chicago: .353/.487/.729, 38 HR, 101 RBI, 34 2B, 106 runs scored, 212 OPS+, 6.3 rWAR, 7.0 fWAR
Extrapolated for 162-game schedule (162 games played): .353/.487/.729, 54 HR, 145 RBI, 49 2B, 152 runs scored

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If the voting limit were increased, the aforementioned Martinez and Trammell would have gotten my vote (they got it in the past). Others I will vote for in the future include Tom Glavine, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling and Larry Walker. Guys on the extreme outside looking in are Fred McGriff, Rafael Palmeiro and Sammy Sosa.

I was actually surprised to see Bonds and Clemens got as much support as they did in their first year eligible. They have 14 more years (including this one) to get 75 percent of the vote, but I'm skeptical that will happen.

Maddux is a near-lock to be voted in by the BBWAA. I'd assume Glavine is another near-lock to make it this year. Beyond them, I don't know who else will get enough votes to make it.

Photo credits
Thomas: clare_and_ben, Wikimedia Commons

Bagwell: shgmom56, Flickr

Larkin: Rick Dikeman, Wikimedia Commons

McGwire: Keith Allison, Flickr